Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Q3 FY 2024 earnings conference call of NTPC Limited, hosted by IIFL Securities Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero, and pound four. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Harsh Dole from IIFL Securities Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, moderator. Greetings, everyone. I'm Harsh Dole . On behalf of IIFL Securities, I welcome you all to the 3Q FY 2024 earnings call of NTPC. To discuss the performance of the quarter gone by and share the outlook, we have the entire senior management team of NTPC. I would request Mr. J. Jaikumar Srinivasan, Director of Finance, to make the opening remarks, subsequent to which, the floor will be open for Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, and good afternoon to all the esteemed participants. I hope I am quite audible?
Yes, sir, you are audible.
I am, I am Jaikumar Srinivasan, Director of Finance at NTPC Limited. It's my pleasure to extend a warm welcome to each of you for the Q3 and nine months financial year 2024 conference call. Thanks again for joining us today. I have with me Shri Dilip Kumar Patel, Director, Human Resource, Shri Ramesh Babu, Director, Operations, Shri Shivam Srivastava, Director, Fuel, Shri K. Shanmugasundaram, Director, Projects. I have also with me other key members of the NTPC team. Yesterday, company announced the unaudited financial results for Q3 and nine months FY 2024. The key performance highlights for Q3 FY 2024 and nine months FY 2024 have already been disclosed on both stock exchanges. NTPC has completed yet another remarkable quarter with a resilient operational financial performance.
Coming to the operational performance, as on 31 December 2023, the commercial capacity of NTPC stands at 57,838 MW on a standalone basis, and 73,874 MW for the group as a whole. NTPC group generated 315 billion units in nine months, financial year 2024, as compared to 295 billion units in nine months, financial year 2023, an increase by 7%. NTPC standalone gross generation in nine months, financial year 2024, is 268 BUs, as compared to 255 BUs in the corresponding previous period, an increase of 5%. During nine months, financial year 2024, PLF of coal stations of NTPC was 76.40, as against the national average of 68.51%.
For nine months, financial year 2024, four coal stations of NTPC, which is Bhilai, Korba, Rihand and Singrauli, were among the top 10 performing stations in the country in terms of plant load factor. During the nine months, FY 2024, there has been lower power surrender by the beneficiaries due to lower un-requisitioned power of 66 billion units, against 72 billion units in the corresponding previous period. There was a generation loss due to fuel supply of just 0.33 billion units against 2 billion units in the corresponding period of the previous year. As regards the status of the fuel supply during Q3 FY 2024, materialization of coal against annual contracted quantity was 95%, as against 98% in the corresponding previous period.
Coal supply during Q3 FY 2024 was 62.37 million metric tons, including 2.15 million metric tons of imported coal. The coal supply during the corresponding previous period was 54.02 MMT, including 1.57 MMT of imported coal. NTPC Group has registered the highest ever coal production of 25.36 million metric tons in nine months, FY 2024, with a growth of over 74% as against 14.55 MMT in previous nine months. A cumulative expenditure of INR 10,612.52 crore has been incurred on the development of coal mines till 31 December 2023. Coming to the financial highlights. Total income for Q3 FY 2024 is INR 40,288 crore, as against INR 42,149 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
On nine months basis, the total income is INR 1,21,486 crore, as compared to INR 1,24,685 crore in the nine months, financial year 2023. Tax for Q3 FY 2024 is INR 4,572 crore, up against INR 4,476 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, registering an increase of 2.15%. On a nine-month basis, that is INR 12,523 crore as against INR 11,524 crore in the nine months FY 2023, registering an increase of 8.66%. Total income of the group for nine months, FY 2024, is INR 1,32,349 crore, as against INR 1,33,231 crore in the corresponding previous period.
PAT of group as a whole for nine months, FY 2024, is INR 14,842 crore, as against the corresponding previous period PAT of INR 12,255 crore, registering an increase of 21.16%. During Q3 FY 2024, our subsidiaries earned a profit of INR 1,516 crore, as compared to INR 1,290 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year, registering an increase of 17.45%. NTPC's share of profit in JV has increased from INR 481 crore in nine months FY 2023 to INR 1,424 crore in nine months FY 2024. During nine months FY 2024, we have accounted dividend income of INR 662 crore, as against INR 1,053 crore during the nine months FY 2023.
We had declared a first interim dividend of INR 0.25 per share for the financial year 2023 to 24 after second quarter results. Further, we have declared second interim dividend of INR 2.25 per share yesterday. Thus, the total interim dividend of INR 4.5 per share has been declared for the financial year 2023 to 24. Coming to the regulated equity, as on 31 December 2023, was INR 82,094 crore for NTPC on standalone basis, and INR 98,712 crore on group basis. On the fund mobilization side, the average rate of interest during the nine months, financial year 2024, is for NTPC 6.66%, as compared to 6.32% in the nine months, financial year 2023.
Capital expenditure outlay of NTPC group has been estimated at INR 28,373 crore for financial year 2024. In nine months, FY 2024, we have incurred a group CapEx of INR 21,552 crore, as compared to INR 26,058 crore in the corresponding previous period. I'd like to list down a few other highlights. NTPC Group is deeply committed to advancing renewable energy initiatives. As of now, we have successfully commissioned 3,364 MW of renewable energy projects. Currently, an additional 7,808 MW of renewable energy projects are in the various stage of construction.
Moreover, we have 8,225 MW of renewable energy projects in the tendering process, and a substantial 3,350 MW equivalent land bank is at our disposal, presenting a tangible pipeline of overall 22,747 MW as at present. As part of our overall energy security plans, we are actively considering awarding thermal capacity of close to 16.8 GW in near future. This is in addition to the 10 GW thermal capacity already under construction for the group. Furthermore, to have greater fuel security, we are enhancing our coal mining capacity as well, and expect to reach an annual production of 50 million tons in the next three years.
On December 15, 2023, MDO contract was awarded for Badam coal mining project, marking a significant milestone as all six coal mining projects of NTPC now have MDO contracts in place. Going higher on generation, lowering greenhouse gas intensity remain our motto for environment management and drives our efforts to comply with new environment norms. We have taken significant steps to control SOx and NOx emissions. Over the next three years, we plan to commission FGD system for our entire operational and under construction capacity, ensuring a substantial reduction in SOx emission. 65,200 MW has been awarded, out of which 5,596 MW has already been commissioned and 59,240 MW is under implementation.
NTPC Group achieved 300 billion units power generation in financial year 2023 to 24 in record time of 262 days, which is 18 days earlier compared to the last financial year. Erection work of 22 TPD biomass pellet plant at Bathinda, Punjab, has been completed, and the project is likely to be commissioned in Q4 of financial year 2023 to 24. Erection activity for setting up of 50 tons per day pellet plant at NTPC, Dadri, and 100 TPD pellet plant at APCPL, Jhajjar, are in progress. Some of the awards accolades for NTPC in Q3 financial year 2024, NTPC received Gold Award for Annual Report at the Corporate Governance Disclosure Competition 2022, organized by the South Asian Federation of Accountants, SAFA.
The annual report of NTPC for the year 2021 to 22 has been confirmed with Gold Award, public sector entities category under SAFA Best Presented Annual Accounts Awards, Integrated Reporting Award, and SAARC Anniversary Award for Corporate Governance Disclosure Competition 2022. NTPC Coal Mining bagged Star Rating Award under the Star Rating System, instituted by the Ministry of Coal to promote green, safe, and sustainable mining practices. NTPC Dulanga Coal Mining Project has been awarded Star Rating Award, third rank, under the category of Open Cast Mines for the year 2019 to 20, 2020 to 21, and 2021 to 22. NTPC Talaipalli Coal Mining Project has also been awarded Star Rating Achievers Rank under the Open Cast category for the year 2019 to 20. NTPC has been recognized as one of the world's best employer 2023 in the Forbes World's Best Employer List 2023.
It ranked 261st out of top 700 companies in the world ranking, and is the only only Indian PSU to figure in the list. This is a testimony that the people practices at NTPC are at par with the top companies in the world. These are some of the key highlights I wanted to share before we begin the question and answer session. Thank you so much. I hand over to Mr. Harsh Vardhan. Thank you so much.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask questions may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from question queue, you may press star and two. Participants, I request you to use headphones while asking the question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for the moment while question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Anuj, ICICI. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Am I audible?
Yes, sir, you're audible.
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you, management, for the opportunity. I just have a couple of questions, first, on the lines of, so if I see your standalone P&L, point number five, profit before regulatory deferral account balances, that seems to have declined both on a quarter-on-quarter basis and on a YOY basis. While I understand, there is point six as well, which talks about some regulatory deferral account balances, my question is: How is the regulatory defer... First of all, how should I be looking at, the profit? Should I be looking at, profit for the whole period, including regulatory deferral? And second question is, how do I project this number? Because this number has been very volatile in the last few quarters if I see.
If I see last year, it was of the likes of, a loss of about INR 1,750 crore, and this quarter it is a profit of about INR 1,466 crore. So that's point number one. And second question is, if you can just quantify, the incentives for this quarter, given that your PAF, the Plant Availability Factor, was, down about 6% to 7%, from a quarter-on-quarter perspective. So these two questions. Thank you.
Yeah. Yeah. So the first question was on the standalone profitability, how you should be looking at the profitability. So in fact, as a mark of comparison, you should be looking at the overall profitability, which is up by INR 998.58 crores. The regulatory deferral, there was a peculiar thing in the last year, that we had changed the method of methodology of accounting, whereby all the, you know, sale of ash collections were accounted for under your regulatory deferral. But subsequently, this was by an account transfer, it was all shifted to the actual revenue. So to that extent, there will be a variation seen, but on an overall basis, the profitability remains progressive. Coming to your next question regarding incentive.
The trend of incentive is for the third quarter, it is INR 124 crore, and overall, for the nine months, the incentive is INR 562 crore, INR 462 crore, which is higher compared to the last year. The trend is on an increasing trend. If you were to look at the figures of incentive for the last three years, it has grown from 164, 354, then 424, and now it is INR 462 crore.
Okay. Thank you. Just one clarification, this net momentum, regulatory deferral would remain elevated at these levels. Would it be fair to assume that, or should it reverse going forward in the future quarters?
... No, the regulatory deferral will have, you know, deferral based on two, three components. One, it can be due to, you know, foreign currency movement because of regulatory orders. So there is, we can't capture a trend per se.
No. So basically you are saying that there has been some accounting difference between last year same quarter and this year, this quarter?
Yeah.
So that's why I was just asking. So,
Yes.
So you're saying it's difficult to comment?
No, not that. To that extent, that particular transaction is a one time, and it will not be repeated.
That, that's what I was asking. Thank you, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sitaram Agarwal from Keyline Investment Management. Please go ahead. Mr. Sitaram, you're audible. Please, you can ask your question. The next question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, and thanks for the opportunity. So my first question is, what was the under recovery in the nine months, and what was this number in H1?
Under recovery in sense of disincentive, you mean?
Yes.
The under recovery in the third quarter was close to INR 256 crore. Overall, it is around INR 740 crore, which we should see the reversal during the fourth quarter. This was essentially due to some more number of outages that were taken in the third quarter. Because it's kind of an overplanning that during the first quarter of the next year, the demand is likely to be upside. So, you know, as a preparatory measures, more number of outages were taken in the third quarter. So you should see a lot of reversal in the fourth quarter.
My second question is-
I think I would like to give some clarification on this. The Government of India has said to the power companies that they should not take any overhauls from the month of March onwards. So some of the overhauls that were supposed to be taken in March that were preponed. Similarly, in the beginning of the year, up to June, we were not allowed to take any overhauls because of the prevailing grid conditions. So some of those, these overhauls were also adjusted in these months. So we have taken more overhauls during this period. And once these units come back on board, you'll see a lot of reversal of this under recovery.
My second question is that the fact that the under recovery has been higher in the last five years, and one of the key reasons could be that peak, off peak, low season, high season, and the new regulation, the low season, high season has gone off. Do you think this will help materially for us to report a lower under recovery in the next tariff period if the draft regulation prevails in the final?
Yes, it would actually help the company. In fact, with the government giving us the directions to schedule our overhauls, we were facing some problems. And we're actually telling the government also that this high demand, low demand season should go. So and in this 2024 to 2029 regulation, that has been removed. So to this extent, yes, the under recovery will be less healthy. We do not have this high demand, low demand. Yes, just to add to what the Director of Operations said, yes, the this, the changed rule, changed provisions, regulation will give us a better latitude to manage our you know grid condition.
Because earlier, whatever was the declared peak and non-peak, and as compared to what was the, you know, real grid situations. So this will give a better latitude to operate.
The last question is on the government is saying about adding 88 gigawatt of coal, 88 gigawatt of coal in next 10 years. Are we revising our capacity addition target for coal-based power plant as of now, or do you think we will revise it later?
Out of which, NTPC is going to add 16.8 GW thermal directly. And indirectly, we'll be supporting the state government utilities in awarding 7 GW.
Understood, sir. Thank you. Understood, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ravikant from Tara Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for the opportunity, Ravikant Desai. This is my one small question: Is there any planning of merger of NHPC and NTPC and NTPC?
No. To our information, there is no such, and whatever is there, it couldn't be, just be a speculative kind of a thing.
Okay.
Officially, there is nothing with us.
Okay, thank you so much.
... Thank you. The next question is from the line of Atul Tiwari from Citi. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So, what was the recurring part in the quarter? If you could share that number. Normally, you adjust for some one-off as a term.
Yeah, yeah. See, if you are referring to what can be termed as adjusted profit-
Yeah.
Our adjusted profit for the current nine months thing is Q3 or-
Q3.
So yeah. So for the Q3, it was INR 4,468, as compared to INR 4,424 in the previous Q3. If you talk about nine months basis, our adjusted profit is INR 11,760, which compares favorably. Previous year, it was INR 11,480.
Okay. For this 16.8 gigawatt award plan, so like, which are some of the key projects like which you, which you could award over, say, next six months to one year out of this pipeline?
This would be Singrauli Three, 1,600 MW, Sipat Three, 800 MW, Darlipali Unit One, 800 MW. So this would be typically in the Q1, Q2 tendering for the forthcoming year. There is one more, Meja, 2,400 MW, then NPGCL Two, 2,400 MW, Telangana Two, 2,400 MW. So besides this, there will be Gadarwara, Anpara, Obra, Patratu . So totaling to 16,800, 16.8 GW. So out of this, 9,600 would be on a standalone NTPC, and 7.2 GW would be implemented through the JV subsidiary.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Puneet Gulati from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you so much. So basically, out of the 16.8, the breakup is the 9.6 and 7 GW, right? That's how one should read in terms of-
Yeah, 9.6 and 7.2 is the breakup between standalone and JV subsidiary.
And what is the timeline of the award for all of this? And what stages are... Which one will be the first one to go?
Yeah, it's, as I was mentioning, in Q1, Q2, around 5,600 gigawatts should be 5.6 GW should be tendered out in the Q1 and Q2 of next year.
Okay.
6,400 should be for Q2 of 25 to 26. 4,800 could be there in the Q3.
Q?
Twenty-five, twenty-six.
Q3 of 2025, 2026. So FY 2025, 5.6, and about 11.2 in FY 2026.
5.6, 6.4, and 4.8.
6.4 is also FY 2026, right?
6.4 is 25, 26.
Yeah, yeah, FY 2025, 2026. And, and same year for 4.8 in Q2.
25. This is... One second, just hold on.
Yeah.
Which is which year? 42. 42. 26, 27? Huh. Acha, 4.8 would be 2026, 2027. There was a typo on our side.
Right. Good. So, for the first 5.6, which is due Q1 2025, you know, which is less than six months, what are the stages of approval that you need to cross and where are you on those?
I will ask request my Director Project to elaborate on this.
In case of Singrauli, there is no need for studies. All studies have been completed. For Sipat, we are waiting for the EC, and for Darlipali, we need certain amount of land acquisition as well as EC. And Meja, certain amount of land for R&R is required. However, as committed by Director of Finance, we'll be able to award this by next six months, this last lap.
Okay, so you're expecting EC for all to come in next six months, EC and land acquisition also to get completed? And Singrauli, you have EC already in place.
Yes, we have already EC.
Okay, that's really good. Secondly, is it possible to break up your, you know, other income in form of income from subsidiaries and rest of the income, it'd be very helpful.
Yeah.
9 months other income.
You want the details of other income?
Yeah, broadly break up from, basically dividend from subsidiaries, JVs, and the others. Such as-
Dividend.
See, the breakup of dividend would be that. The dividend from subsidiary is INR 190 crore, and the dividend from JVs would be INR 463 crore. The gross will be INR 662 crore.
Thank you, sir.
What was your other question?
Yeah, and then there will be surcharge in commission, right?
One second. NPS. 186.
It is 186, sir.
The surcharge for nine months is INR 186 crore, compared to INR 459 crore last year. So the surcharge is always on a real reduction trend because of the good collection efficiency now.
Right. Thank you, sir. My last question is on your renewable capacity that's still about 3.3. You're sitting on 3 GW quite a bit. Are you happy with the pace of commissioning, or do you expect that pace of commissioning to change in the year ahead? You have 4 GW of pipeline already.
We are, we have a commissioned capacity of 3.3 GW, but we are geared up, as I was telling in my initial remarks, that 7.8 GW is already under execution with PPA available, construction contracts are all about it. Another 11.9 GW is in the pipeline, where we have won the bid either or received the LOA has been received, PPA has been signed, JV. Some of them are through JV, so JV has been signed, term sheet, and some consents received. So these are under, you know, in state of pre-preparation, so under execution also. But, nevertheless, I'll ask, request my CEO of NGEL and REL to elaborate on this, Mr. Mohit Bhargava.
Also, on the 7,800 MW, which is under construction, what should be the timeline of commissioning for FY 25 and 26, and if at all anything else can come in at 26?
Yeah, Rahul, the first thing first, no, we are not happy with the pace of execution, but these are things which are not in our control, and now hopefully we are back on track. The major issue, of course, was the module supply, so we started receiving the supply now. We, out of the 7.8, which is already ordered, progressively we hope to commission them over the next 24 months. But, about 1 GW definitely will come by March. That's what our target is, because. And another, of course, the idea is to have close to another, three GW next year and balance thereafter.
Understood. That's really helpful. That's all from my side. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Lavina from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Just wanted to check again on this slower pace of execution. Outside of receipt of modules, is anything on the land acquisition side or certain other fronts maybe delaying the execution? Just from your perspective that your three-year target is in place, your 2025, 2026 target.
No, the major challenge was module, because there has been change in what the regulations have been put in place by the government. So this is what delayed the module procurement. But other than that, I would say these are routine issues. Land and execution challenges with EPC contractors are always there. That's our job to take care of those. So we don't perceive anything specific, which is out of hand.
Okay. Just so your 2025, 2026 target would be in place, right? What you all have in mind?
Yes.
You all have been guiding for?
Yes.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anuj Upadhyay from Investec. Please go ahead.
Hello. Yeah, thanks for the opportunity, sir. So, my first question belongs to the under recovery, which you mentioned in nine months, we had around INR 740 crore of under recovery, and we target to bring it down. Any number you want to quote or where we would like to end up by FY 2024 figures for the under recovery?
It would be around INR 400 crore to INR 450 crore.
400 to 450. Okay. Secondly, on the capacity addition, sir. So while the renewable target has been mentioned, how about the conventional thing? So, like, year to date, we have added close to 1.6 GW of capacity. And if I'm correct, we had given a consult target of adding somewhere close to 6 to 7 GW on an annual basis, of which roughly 3 GW would be renewable. So how are the balanced 4 GW of conventional capacity panning out? Are we sticking to the timeline for FY 2024, 2025, 2026 numbers, or there's some kind of a change we may expect?
The current year target was 3,580 in conventional, which we'll be able to achieve. We have, North Karanpura Unit 2 and Telangana Unit 2, one of our Maitree Unit 2 in Bangladesh. These three are pending. These three are on track. They are expected to be commissioned by the month of February.
Okay. So they have been synchronized, right?
North Karanpura has achieved full load also. Telangana is going to achieve full load in two to three days. Maitree is not able to go to trial op because of coal issues. Now they are also starting it.
... Oh, thanks, sir. And for FY 25, 26?
For FY 2025, we have a target of around 4 GW+, and for FY 2026, around 2.7 GW+.
Inaudible.
We'll be having this Patratu 2, 800 MW, Barh 1 unit 660, North Karanpura unit number three, then 1 unit of THDC Khurja. This is the likely breakup. This is for financial 2026.
All right, sir. And the PP and FSA are all in place for these capacities, which are likely to come up by FY 2026. Right, sir?
Oh, yes. Yes, yes.
Okay. And only for the new project which we have announced, 16.8 gigawatt, we need to seek the approval for the same, in the like for the PP and FSA is something which we are still seeking.
Oh, yes, it's in the cost model.
Okay. Lastly, on the cash flow front, so, factoring the thing that we are adding close to 6 to 7 gigawatt on an annual basis, how would our cash flow be placed so that we can meet the equity CapEx for this capacity? If you can throw some light on this, it would be helpful.
We have a comfortable projection, depending on all the capacity additions and, your, better regulated equity, we are, we'll keep on adding. So our cash flow projection is comfortable, and it will be able to take care of my 30% equity for all this requirement.
Okay. That is it. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sushil Dutt from Nuvama Wealth Management. Please go ahead. As there is no response from the participants, we will go to the next question. The next question is from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you. First question on renewable energy. On the 7.8 GW that you're looking at for the next two odd years, given we've seen correction in module prices and you've finally secured modules, any idea the IRR on these projects that you're looking at, would it be better than the projects you already have executed? Or is it, could it be better than the existing projects? That's the first one.
If the module prices remain corrected and maybe go down further, definitely there will be better IRR.
What kind of IRR do you look at in renewable energy?
Sorry, that was not clear.
What, what kind of... Are you bidding for projects? What?
Sorry to interrupt, sir. Your voice is not clear. Kindly use handset, please.
Hi, am I audible?
Yes, sir, you're audible.
Yeah, please.
Any bidding for RV projects, what is the IRR you're looking at, for RV right now?
See, the renewable side is a competitive arena, and the IRR is something which I can only give you a range. I cannot be very specific about this. So we are looking for a very healthy IRR, which would be comparable with what we are earning in the cost plus segment. I cannot be more specific.
Okay. On the 16.8 gigawatt of capacity probably mentioned, any idea how much of that could be pit-head and how much non-pit-head?
Almost Singrauli is pit-head, Barh also pit-head, Darlipali is pit-head. Meja is non-pit-head. Telangana is pit-head. Gadarwara non-pit-head. Nabinagar, non-pit-head. Patratu pit-head. Obra and Anpara are pit-head. So we can, we can, tally it up, and give it to you specifically if you want the megawatt, but, on a ballpark basis, 60%, 60% to 65% is on a pit-head basis and remaining is on a non-pit-head.
Okay. Just one clarification on the capacity extensions. You mentioned 4 GW for FY... More than 4 GW for FY 2024. Is it largely on time when we look at Telangana unit 1, North Karanpura unit 3? Can you maybe just talk about how much are you looking at commissioning in the first half of FY 2025?
The next year you are talking, first half?
Yes.
First half, it will be Barh and North Karanpura.
You are talking about award or commissioning?
Commissioning.
Commissioning, commissioning.
Telangana will be completed in this year itself. Telangana, North Karanpura unit 2 by this year itself. Next year, it will be 1 unit of North Karanpura, 1 unit of Barh, and 1 unit of Patratu 2, and 1 unit of THDC Khurja .
These will be in, you see, first half of FY 25, right?
Yes.
Hello?
... Can we proceed? Hello?
The next question is from the line of Nikhil from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you. My first question is on pumped storage project. Last time, we had announced that, you know, there's about 14 GW of opportunities under various stages, stages of discussion. Wanted to check what is the status on that, any progress that has been made on those, pumped storage opportunities?
After going through all the studies and analysis on the interaction, right now we are aiming at 7 gigawatts, out of which Tamil Nadu contributes 3 gigawatts. It's the MoUs at the last stage. Maharashtra, 800, which has been, MoU has been signed yesterday. Chhattisgarh, around 1,200; Gujarat, 1,000; Meghalaya, 1,000. These are the probable customers for us. It's around 7 gigawatts we are aiming at now. Out of which Maharashtra has materialized, rest are in different stages of process. Tamil Nadu will get it very soon. Meghalaya, and Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, they are following up.
Thank you, understood.
And just-
Sorry, please.
Yeah, please.
Just one update on Maharashtra. Maharashtra is actually 2 gigawatts. That's what we signed yesterday.
2 GW. So overall, it's 8 GW which are under active stage?
Yes. Well, we were planning for 800. Now, Maharashtra signed for 222 gigawatts, so it's possibly now 8 gigawatts.
Understood. And in terms of timeline, what should we expect to see in the first months of getting commissioned?
Generally, the time taken is two years for DPR, then for a construction period of five to six years. For the average completion, totally around seven years.
Got it. Understood. My second question is on the renewable front. So I had a couple of clarifications there. Just firstly, on FY 2026, just wanted to clarify, what number are we then targeting? Is it about 15 GW of renewable by FY 2026, which we had communicated in the last call, or is that number revised downwards now, the total operating capacity for renewables by FY 2026 end?
No, we are still in that ballpark.
Got it. Got it. And second question on renewable generation transmission front. Is transmission a reason for delay or which could potentially delay our aspirations on the renewable front?
Difficult to say upfront, but yes, the transmission is a challenge for actually all the developers. The government and the transmission equity are focusing on that. Most of our projects have connectivity in place, but yes, in a few of them, probably there might be minor delay in connectivity, but we don't anticipate that to materially impact us.
Got it. Got it. That's helpful. Maybe one last question from my side. On the module price question, which came up earlier as well. I, given, given the crash in module prices, as you said, should benefit us. The 7.8 GW, which is under construction on renewable, for them, am I correct to understand it's typically on a turnkey basis where the module price is already locked?
No, no, no. In fact, most of that is in a two-package mode, where we are procuring modules there.
Understood. And would the orders have been placed already on the module front as well, or?
No, not for all. We've placed orders for about 2.5 GW.
Okay. Makes sense. Thank you so much for answering my questions. That was all.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Akshat Vyas from Reliance Nippon Life Insurance. Please go ahead.
Thank you. So just wanted to ask,
Sorry, sir, you're not audible. I just-
Sorry, still not audible.
Sir, CapEx for the...
If there is no response from participants, we will go to the next. The next question is from the line of Swati Jhunjhunwala from BOB Capital. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you for taking my question. First question is on the coal mining. So for nine months, we've done 20 MTPA against our target of 34 million tons for the entire year. So is that target still intact or are we revising it?
No, madam, we are already on the track, and we have already produced 27 million tons plus, and we'll be achieving this target.
So, this 27, this 7 million ton, according to your key highlights, you said around 20 million for nine months. So is that... Can you clarify what is the difference between 20 and 27?
I couldn't get you. That you're talking about balance production?
Yeah. So, in your key highlights, the coal produced is 20 million tons for nine months. Is that right?
No, that is for previous year, madam. This year it is 27.
Twenty-five.
I mean, till date.
Till date, yeah.
This year, madam, it is 27 million tons.
Nine months.
And, what we were using for the nine months. So we are on track.
Nine months, 27. 25.36
25.36 is nine months.
I know.
Right now we have achieved 27.
... Got it. So the 34 million ton is in CAP, this will be achieved by the end of the year?
Absolutely. Yes.
Okay, got it. And, second question is on the renewable front. So, we are planning to commission around about 15 GW by FY 2026. But the hydro pumped storage capacities that are coming up, for 8 GW, as you said, will take another six to seven years. So, the kind of PPA that you are signing, is it on a RTC basis or is it on a project to project basis?
No, the PPAs which we have signed also include RTC power. But for those RTC PPAs, we are not looking at our own on storage as of now. In fact, as we had mentioned last time also, we've already tied up for a 500 MW on storage, and we have another 1,500 MW storage bid in the market. So we'll be using that capacity for meeting our PPA requirements.
All right. Understood. And, last question. On the 16.8 GW terminal capacity, so, of this, is the entire 16.8 under RTC, or is only the 9.6 that is the standalone part, is that the only one under the regulated basis?
No, the entire capacity would be predominantly on a cost plus basis.
On the cost plus basis. All right. Okay, thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dhruv from HDFC AMC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, sir, thank you so much. So just one point to clarify: 10 GW of thermal assets are already under construction, and over and above that, we are planning to tender out 16.8 GW of thermal capacity.
You have to be a bit louder, please.
Sir, 10 gigawatts of thermal capacities are already under construction, and 16.8 gigawatts we have to tender in the next two to three years.
Yes.
That's over and about 10 GW. And so any status on this, 16.8 in terms of the PPAs, the states which are coming up, you know, to sign PPAs, is there a willingness or, just some status there?
We have PPAs for some of them, like Darlipali, Patratu, Singrauli, and we'll be signing PPAs for others, like Sipat and Telangana Two and other projects.
But these states are coming forward to sign PPAs, is it? Or I mean, where are we right now in terms of the willingness to sign?
Yes, yes, they are willing. They are willing to sign PPAs.
Okay. Got it. And so the other thing, a small point was, what was the PAF under recovery, the fixed charge under recovery, in the last year same quarter, QQFY 23?
I think this is a repeat question, but, nonetheless, let me-
So last year. You had mentioned for the current year quarter, not for the last year quarter.
Okay. Last year, Q3 was INR 168 crore. Sorry?
The fixed under recovery.
Last year was improvement, not under-recovery. It was an improvement by 168.
Oh, INR 168 crore. Got it. No, it's all right. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Akshay Vyas from Reliance Nippon Life Insurance. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So sorry for the cut earlier. I just wanted to know, your CapEx for the next year would be how much? This year, you're saying INR 28.3760 for FY 2024. 2025 would be?
The overall CapEx for the standalone CapEx for next year would be close to INR 22,700, and for 2025 to 26, it would be close to INR 26,000.
Sorry, how much?
26,300.
And so this would be done through how the fund, the raising for the funds and all would be done through equity debt?
Through debt/equity 70/30.
Debt/equity, 70/30. Okay, sir. Okay. Thank you, sir.
That's the normative as far as the cost plus projects are concerned, but renewable, it could be slightly different. We, we can go for higher leveraging if possible.
Okay, sir. Thank you. So, FY 2025, you said INR 2,270 for standalone, and 2026, you said INR 2,630 for FY 2026.
Yeah.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Falguni Dutta from Mansarovar Financial. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon, sir. I just have one question. What's your view on the overall demand, supply, and power for the next two years, let's say, if we even include the renewable capacity therein?
Overall demand and supply. You are talking about, when sort of demand, supply, I presume you are talking at the country level?
For country, yeah.
Okay, now, I will give you two projections. One is, by the end of 2026 to 2027
Mm-hmm.
The overall electricity demand, in terms of, you know, peak demand, it would be 277.
Okay.
On an energy basis, it would be 1,908 billion units.
1900 and?
Eight.
1908.
... 1908, BUs.
Okay, sir.
If you take projection up to 31, 32, the peak demand would is estimated at 366 GW, and the energy demand would be 2,474 billion units.
And so again, this for FY 2027, against this, how was the supply. I just wanted to know, is there, I mean, how are we placed for the country? Will there be will the demand overshoot the supply or? I mean, will the I just wanted to take a view in terms of, merchant power rates, and thereabout.
I can only share that, you know, right now, 27 GW of coal capacity is already under construction, and another 31 GW, close to that, is under advanced stage of planning, and another 18 GW is required to be planned. So that would essentially mean that the whole capacity would be closer to INR 283 crore by the end of 2032. So that's the broad number. That's the broad numbers available at the planning stage.
Sir, I just missed your last statement. This, the 27 GW, 31 and 18 were all for coal you mentioned, right?
Yes, yes. All for coal, as an all-India basis, and the estimated closing capacity at the end of 32, 2032 should be closer to 283, 283 GW.
Okay.
This would factor some amount of retirement, possible retirement, depending on the health of the plants. So we have factored around 2 gigawatt of retirement as well in this.
Okay.
And, so-
Yeah.
On the renewable side, or we can say, non-fossil fuel side, solar target addition would be 246, wind around 46, and from other sources, other non-renew, non-fossil fuel sources of 52 gigawatts. The total addition targeted as a country as a whole is 343. This should take the overall capacity, considering the existing capacity, to 530 gigawatt by the end of 2032.
Okay.
And if you-
530
If you talk on aggregate basis, so the total target capacity at the end of 2032 would be 838 GW.
And-
Total of 412 gigawatt would be the target addition, taking into account the conventional as well as the RE side.
So 412 GW is the target addition, for till 2032?
That's right.
Okay. So you don't think now that with more solar coming in, I mean, what we hear is various companies putting up solar capacities. So is there a case that the thermal capacity demand comes off a little bit, it gets offset with that, with solar, and therefore we see some lesser demand for thermal? I mean, do you see that the situation?
... Yeah. See, I think one of your questions was, will we able to supply the demand? See, as of now, the current additions in the renewable sector and the thermal, there is no issue of meeting the demand during solar, solar hours. Probably, during non-solar hours, in the short time, there could be some crunch. But even that, provided all the thermal units on bar, that's not an issue. If thermal units are going under maintenance, more than the required, then there is an issue. That is what is the demand for the situation.
Okay. Thank you, sir. That's all from me.
Thank you. The last question is from the line of Aditya Welekar from Axis Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you. Sir, any color on the green hydrogen? There was an announcement yesterday that Government of Maharashtra will be putting some INR 80,000 crore investment in NTPC Green Energy. So under what, how can we... How should we see this green hydrogen space shaping up in future?
Yeah, our CEO of NGEL, Mohit Bhargava, will be taking this question.
I think there's one correction up front. Maharashtra government does not intend to invest anything in NTPC. The MOU which has been signed says that we will be investing up to INR 80,000 crore in Maharashtra for setting up green hydrogen projects backed by renewable and firm storage and so on. So that is the broad objective in the MOU, and the broad timeline is to do it within the next five years. Maharashtra recently came out with a new hydrogen policy, and this is broadly an outcome of that, that NTPC Green has committed to take up. On a more generic note, the green hydrogen is still evolving, and all the IPPs, including NTPC, are looking at kind of off-take demand. Meanwhile, the government is also looking at mandates for the domestic companies.
So once all these things happen, demand will be created because there are a lot of people who are willing to set up hydrogen projects or similar projects, but ultimately, without off-take, this cannot be easily developed. Till such time, most of the people are actually doing pilots.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. As that was the last question, I would now hand the conference over to Mr. Harsh Dole from IIFL Securities Limited for closing comments.
Thanks, Operator. On behalf of IIFL Securities, I'd like to thank all the participants, and I'd also like to thank NTPC management for giving us an opportunity to host this call. Really appreciate, sir. Before we conclude the call, would you like to extend any last message?
Well, I would, on behalf of the management of NTPC, like to thank all the participants for their very, very well-informed questions. And if there are any remaining queries which are left to be answered, we will be supplementing it through a direct reply to that. So thank you once again. Thank you very much.
Thank you. On behalf of IIFL Securities Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.