Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Orchid Pharma Ltd. Q3 FY 2024 investor conference call hosted by Systematix Institutional Equities. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and this will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Vishal Manchanda from Systematix Institutional Equities. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Sargar. Good evening, everyone. On behalf of Systematix Institutional Equities, I welcome you to the Q3 FY 2024 earnings call of Orchid Pharma. We thank the Orchid Pharma management for giving us an opportunity to host the call. Today we have with us the senior management of Orchid, represented by Mr. Manish Dhanuka, Managing Director, Mr. Mridul Dhanuka, Full-Time Director, and Mr. Sunil Kumar Gupta, Chief Financial Officer. I now hand over the call to the company management for opening remarks. Over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I am Manish Dhanuka, the Managing Director of the company. It gives me great pleasure to welcome you all to this call on the results of our company for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024. Let me begin by sharing some of the key highlights of our financial performance during the Q3 of 2024. In this quarter, our sales have shown remarkable growth, increasing from INR 159.8 crores to INR 220 crores. Further, over the span of nine months, we have witnessed a substantial rise from INR 456 crores to INR 602 crores on a year-on-year basis. Our EBITDA has followed a similar positive trajectory, increasing from INR 22.6 crores to INR 43.3 crores in Q3, and from INR 61.6 crores to INR 99.3 crores in the cumulative nine months when compared to the same period last year.
Additionally, our profit after tax has seen a commendable increase, moving from INR 6.7 crores to INR 30.5 crores in Q3, and from a negative of INR 10.7 crores to INR 61.6 crores in the nine-month period over the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. I am particularly proud to highlight our continued focus on efficiency and productivity. Despite the operationalization of an additional facility in the sterile area, which we discussed during the last call, we have managed to keep our expenses ratio in check. Specifically, our employee expenses have moved from 10.7% of sales over the nine-month period to 8.6% this year. Similarly, other expenses as a percentage of sales have gone down from 21.4% to 18.6% over the same period.
This showcases our commitment to cost management and operational efficiency. It's worth mentioning that amidst these financial achievements, Orchid Pharma has received very encouraging news from the regulatory authorities.
Enmetazobactam has been recommended for approval by the European Medicines Agency, and we anticipate receiving the US FDA approval also within February. In terms of our ongoing projects, progress is underway for the 7-ACA project. We have started registering the land parcels in Jammu. We have commissioned the pilot plant in Chennai this month, and we are now embarking on the detailed engineering study as the basic engineering design nears completion. We have been discussing the subject of antimicrobial resistance. Antimicrobial resistance is one of the biggest issues we are facing in the healthcare industry at present. Our project of cefiderocol with Shionogi and GARDP is also in the same line, which addresses the issue of antimicrobial resistance by providing access to that molecule.
Continuing on the same line, we have assembled a team of experts who are devising a strategy to launch a new division coined as Orchid AMS, or Orchid Antimicrobial Solutions. We hope to launch this division in the next couple of quarters. This division will be a hospital sales division for the company. In conclusion, I am optimistic about the future of Orchid Pharma Ltd. Our robust financial performance, combined with positive regulatory developments and progress on key projects, instills confidence in our ability to continue this upward trajectory. I would like to express my gratitude to all our stakeholders, employees, investors, and partners for their unwavering support. Together, we will navigate the challenges and capitalize on opportunities, ensuring the sustained success and growth of Orchid Pharma Ltd. Thank you. We will take the questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use hands-free only while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Participants may press star and one on their touch-tone phone to join the question queue. The first question is from the line of Jainil Shah from JM Financial. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thank you for the opportunity, and congratulations on the set of numbers. My question is, what is driving our growth in this particular product? Is it domestic? Is it export? And also, what has driven our cost margin improvement?
So this is in continuation with our strategy in the last three years, which is about developing new customers and new markets. I would say the growth is overall in all the different territories, and it would be difficult to point out any single territory. As we've always said, quarter-to-quarter comparison of territories is not very meaningful. So I think this is a result of our efforts to develop new customers and also develop new products. A product that we had launched last year, once it went off-rate, and since present time, Enmetazobactam is also contributing to the sales.
On the gross margin question, Jainil, this is an effect of some low-price inventory while the prices are increasing in the market. So it's a one-off thing. Our long-term guidance would remain as 40 ± 2, as we have been always saying.
Sure. You know, Sterile Block coming in last quarter, so how is that capacity filling up? Are we on track to operationalize our overall capacity this quarter?
So the Sterile Block was commissioned just in December, and in the last quarter, there was minimum capacity utilization. This quarter, roughly half, we plan to reach roughly half utilization, and it will take another six months to a year to go to 100% utilization as we stabilize more products and file them. For the overall capacity, the project is online, and we'll see that per our expectation by the end of H1 next year.
This is helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anant Jain from Investor. Please go ahead.
Congratulations on a good set of numbers, sir, and thanks for the opportunity. My first question is, since Dhanuka hello, am I audible?
Yeah. Yes, we can hear you.
Yeah. So can you give some flavor on how Dhanuka Laboratories has done this quarter? Because I think the merger is pretty much done for the company, and we don't have any information shared on that. That's the first question I have. The second question that I have is, with cefiderocol, what is the timeline for cefiderocol when we can expect the launch of cefiderocol in India and the remaining 135 countries? And can this partnership with Shionogi be expanded, or do we have plans to onboard more such partners? That would be my second question. The third question that I have is, in terms of our current capacities, if you could give us some idea as to what could be the max revenue from our current capacities, what would be the revenue potential after we have, in some ways, kind of current capacities of both Dhanuka Labs and this?
And what would be the capacities after debottlenecking? Because I would assume that if there would be some debottlenecking opportunities without doing much of this, if you can help me with that.
That's a lot of questions, Anant. Thanks. So let me start reverse in terms of capacities. So it's difficult to put a number or a revenue potential on the capacities. As we have explained earlier, Orchid makes almost 40 products, and the capacities are consumable. Having said that, we have talked about a 20%-25% CAGR basis if you look back three years from today, how the business has been growing. And for another couple of years, we don't see any more investments needed. So that could be the rough math we could do to say how much we can do without any capacity addition. On cefiderocol, the product is not yet registered in India, and we have to figure out how the regulatory pathway for that will work before the product can be introduced.
At the same time, this is a very complicated product, and only via lyophilization cephalosporin to be made in the world today. So we have to set up dedicated facilities, which will also take time. So our estimate is second half of 2026 when we can launch this product.
There was one more question that I asked in terms of, while we're looking at more partnerships of this kind with innovators, is there anything in pipeline?
Unfortunately, pipeline discussions are confidential and cannot be shared. We, of course, welcome partnerships. The only point is that in terms of cephalosporins, there are very few molecules which are still under patent.
Agreed. Agreed. Agreed with that. And Dhanuka revenues, if you could give some idea there, Dhanuka Labs?
Dhanuka has also done well this year. The growth is around 20% over there. So they have done about INR 400 crore in nine months.
Because they did INR 75 crore in the H1 phase, if I remember, they have done another INR 125 crore in Q2.
Right.
Okay. That's it from my side. Thank you. I have more questions than being there.
Thank you. A reminder to all the participants, you may press star and one on your touch-tone phone to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Rupesh Tatiya from Intelsense Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello. Can you hear me? Hello?
Yes.
Yeah. Sir, one clarification. This Dhanuka, INR 400 crore revenue, would you be able to share it with us, as same, as we have done in nine months?
Unlisted company, so we don't track that on a quarter-to-quarter basis.
Okay. Maybe you can give a broad range of what would it be?
I think it would be in line with what has always been. Of course, with the growth changes, maybe slightly improvement should be there.
Okay. Another, my first question to you is, this 7-ACA CapEx that we're trying to do in Jammu, I read one of the brokerage reports, and there were a lot of incentives: GST refund, PLI benefits, interest subvention, electricity benefits. So can you just list down, I mean, I haven't heard it from you in this forum, so can you just list down all the incentives that we are looking at?
Actually, you listed down all the four. So yeah, there is a GST benefit under the scheme, and the PLI benefit is also there. Plus, the interest subvention is around 6% over there. Electricity prices, I think, as such are lower in Jammu and Kashmir. There's no specific benefit, but the prices are lower.
So would it be, and I think in the past, you have said that at least we will make 10% of margin in 7-ACA in one of the older calls. So would it be fair to say that we'll get our money back in 7-ACA in three years? Would that be a fair statement to make once we're operational and running at the current capacity?
If I remember correctly, we said that our technology provider and some of the people that we talked to, they have said that it was a 10% EBITDA business when they were running at similar capacity. We hope that the benefits would be over and above that. I don't have the exact numbers what would be the payback period.
Okay. Thank you, sir. And then another question is that we have talked about launching some of the new products, two of which I think you have pointed out in your presentation. One is Ceftaroline, and another one is Cefditoren. So if you can talk, where are we in terms of DMF filing, validation batches, some of these?
Yeah. We've talked about the product in the last presentation as Cefepime Magnipexum and Ceftaroline. We are on track with respect to the filing of the DMF. For Cefepime Magnipexum , it's already been filed, and the ANDA should be filed shortly. Ceftaroline is planned to be targeted towards the end of this year. We are on track with that as well.
Okay. What's Ceftaroline?
Ceftaroline, we've never talked about a target. That's under development product. So we are talking to several companies for a partnership on that.
It's a veterinary product. We have the product ready in the laboratory, but we are looking for a partner. Once we have the partner, we can take the validation batches anyway and discussing some commercial negotiations with people who can market it in the U.S. market, which is the largest. For other markets, sampling and other things are in progress.
Okay. Okay. I see. And another thing is, with respect to Enmetazobactam, can you give some timeline about India launch and what would be each revenue potential linked to PRs in Enmetazobactam?
Our file is moving with the DCGI, and we are answering their queries. As people who are tracking the pharmaceutical business, the DCGI has become very, very stringent. We are answering their queries. We have requested for a waiver as well considering the problem of antimicrobial resistance, and this product addresses that issue to a large extent. We have requested for a waiver of the clinical trial. If we get that, then should be possible in 6-8 months time. Otherwise, we are looking at the first quarter of the next financial year.
Okay. What would be the potential price, sir? I mean, any technical?
Injectable antibiotic price is about INR 7,000 crore. Now, depending on the price elasticity, we could take between 3%-5% share in cUTI.
Okay. That's good to know, sir. And another question here is, what would be our export domestic play for this quarter? And is it fair to assume that domestic business is a higher margin business than company average? Because currently, I think domestically, we have newer products and things like that. In India, Avibactam is one. So is it a fair assumption to make?
It would not be fair to generalize the margins specific to the region. It depends on the specific product and specific region. Yeah, Cefepime Magnipexum has yielded us good margins. We had almost a monopoly for the last 8-9 months. Plus, there are a lot of other products which we have increased our sales in India because they were being imported from China, and some products, we have completely stopped the imports from China. That's where Orchid is developing the more complicated products, which, in fact, no other company in India which manufactures. Those products have definitely yielded better margin in India, but we cannot generalize like that.
Okay. Maybe final question, sir, is, can we assume that Cefepime Magnipexum will continue to grow at 15%-20% in India for us for a few years because it's a very new product, like that?
So I can't tell you about that because, you see, with antimicrobial resistance, we would not advocate blatant use of the product. It's a very, very special product and probably a last resort until we can launch cefiderocol. So growth is not a criteria for us in India per se. But yes, for Orchid, as such, we expect good growth from it because we have now seated many export markets, and we expect to get good orders from overseas customers.
Okay. Thank you, sir. I'll come back to you.
Thank you. Participants, may I press star and one to ask a question? If you wish to join the question queue, you may press star and one to join the question queue. The next question is from the line of Nihar Shah from Crown Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello. Good evening, sir. I have two to three questions. First is on the U.S. revenue, which we were expecting to climb up. So what's the update on that, and how's the European market recovering?
For U.S. customers, basically, we talked about it on the earlier call. We had a large U.S. order with a good revenue potential. But unfortunately, that site got a U.S. FDA warning letter in April of 2023. So right now, we have back to square one for the U.S. market. And the European market is doing well for us, especially this quarter.
Okay. Do we have any updates on the backward integration for the 7-ACA plant?
Like Mr. Manish Dhanuka talked about in his speech, so our land acquisition registry process has started. We are ready with the pilot plant. We are taking trial batches in the pilot plant. And for the commercial-scale production, the basic engineering stage is complete. The detailed engineering will start soon.
The most important thing for a fermentation-based product is the strain. So happy to announce that we have got the strain from our technology provider, and now we started the trials in our own pilot plant. So that's the key factor in fermentation, and we've got that under control now.
Okay. Okay, sir. And we said that H2 is generally better in terms of revenue. So how are you seeing revenue growth for quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4 and, let's say, Q2 as well?
Yeah. So we have always talked about Orchid not to be looked at as a quarter-on-quarter growth. Always look at Orchid as cumulative numbers. 9 months cumulative. And now when we talk on the next call, we will have the full financial year. And our guidance will always remain, "When you look back 2, 3 years from today, you should see a 20%-25% figure." Year-on-year, quarter-on-quarter numbers might be very sharp.
Okay. What about the EBITDA margin? Are we sticking to the gross margin guidance of 40% in the long term?
Yeah. 40 ± 2. That's our long-term guidance. And EBITDA margins should be like you said, should be higher in the long term.
Okay. Okay. Thank you and all the rest.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Aashita Jain from Nuvama Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening. Congrats on a very good set of results. My first question is from Enmetazobactam. So what is the update on launch in China? And could you also help us see if the product is now approved in Europe, and you're anticipating approval in the US? How do you perceive this product too, Dhanuka?
Can you just repeat what you're saying? I did not understand.
Yeah. I'll repeat it. Is this the question?
Yes.
Okay. So my first question is on Enmetazobactam. So I just wanted to update. Is there any update on the China launch? And also, since the product is now approved in EU, and we're anticipating approval in the US, is this product too Dhanuka?
On China, we don't have any news as of now. U.S. and Europe expect the sales to start in Q1 of next financial year. The growth of a new product is typically exponential. It should start slow, but percentage growth month-on-month, year-on-year, would be very high for the first few years.
Understood. This second question on the PLI thing, just wanted to understand, have we received any attention from the government in terms of plant commercialization and the PLI benefits?
No.
We are having quarterly discussions with them. I don't think we need any extension from them as long as we file the quarterly report for them.
There will be a first year of PLI benefits. Can you clarify?
Sorry?
First year of PLI benefits. If you can just clarify?
No, I didn't understand. What clarification? What?
I mean, the plant revenue should start from X by 2022. Is that the right understanding? In order to not lose out on the first year of PLI benefits?
I don't know. Can somebody repeat? Ashita, sorry. Your voice is echoing. You're speaking on speaker. I cannot understand what you're saying.
Okay. Is this better?
Yeah. Better. I could understand. Yes.
Okay. Okay. I should repeat the question. I just wanted to understand because there was several delays in terms of plant commercialization. So are we losing out on any first or second year of PLI benefits? I just wanted to check on that.
Okay. Now I got it. Right now, so if you go by a strict sense of the scheme, it can be separately attached. At the same time, like Mr. Manish said, we are constantly in touch with the government, and they do their quarterly reviews. And over there, we have, you can say, assurances that once we are commissioned, they will look at it. Like the earlier PLI plants or even Orchid was not yet commissioned. And that's the same discussion they're having with the other partners as well. But yeah, strict sense on paper right now, if we commission as per our plan, we might lose out on those two years.
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anant Jain from Investor. Please go ahead.
One question from my side, sir. For Cefiderocol, we will be needing a separate job. Is there a similar requirement for Enmetazobactam?
No, there is no specific requirement.
In case of Cefiderocol, is it a possibility for us to do contract manufacturing for the innovator?
We are strictly bound by the contract, yeah, but the possibility always exists. That's why we are setting up this plant, which would be capable of clearing U.S. and Europe or even Japan approvals. And if we are able to manufacture at a reasonable cost, we do expect some benefits from the innovator because they're already running short of the product.
Okay. Same thing for Enmetazobactam because I'm assuming that right now, the sourcing for API for Enmetazobactam is from China. So once we have our facility ready, our production ready, do you think that Enmetazobactam API sourcing could happen from our side?
Yeah, there is. There is a possibility. Once they start sourcing it commercially, there is a possibility.
Oh, that's nice to hear. Last question is, you have repeated multiple times that the sales royalty is 6%-8% on enmetazobactam sales. Does that stand for China as well?
Yes, it does. It is because the agreement says worldwide sales, so we commit to China.
Is there a status of change of ownership of the molecule, 6%-8% of a royalty structure, irrespective of the location of sales?
Right.
Great. Thank you, sir. All the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rupesh Tatiya from Intelsense Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Thank you for the opportunity again, sir. One question is, sir, we were looking at reconstituting our capacity in oral side to get rid of low-margin products, move that capacity to a higher-margin product. Can you maybe talk about that? Where are we on that update?
That is a continuous process. I mean, we keep doing that. We are developing products which are having higher margins and feeding with the samples to the customers for those products. That's a continuous process any H1 manufacturer follows.
On the product development side, on the capacity side, like the oral capacity we just talked about earlier, it should be complete by end of H1 next financial year.
I mean, how do we measure this? I mean, can we say that margins will go up?
So again, repeating the answer to an earlier question by somebody on the call, after this, we won't need any large CapEx for our general growth besides the project that we have already announced, like Cefiderocol and 7-ACA.
How about margins, sir? I mean, can we assume that the margins will go up by?
No, we are not guiding anything on increasing the margins. So they will remain at 40 ± 2% on long-term basis.
Even after the reconfiguration, sir? I mean.
Yes. Yes. The reconfiguration is part of that.
Okay. I see. And another thing, sir, is this Dhanuka also has an NCE business. I mean, if you know for nine months what contribution came from this business, then after merger, I mean, what are your thoughts on scaling up this business because this could be a good diversification, probably a better margin business? So maybe if you can talk about that.
Right now, we are not ready to talk about that on this call, Rupesh. Also, unlisted company sharing that data is difficult. But right now, the focus of the company will be stabilizing the new project that we have talked about. And if you look at the merged entity, where the turnover would be upwards of INR 1,000 crore, that will have a very small contribution in the total scale. Although that figure for that would be higher than Orchid's overall figure, definitely. But still, that would not take much of a time if we change that to 5% or 10% over there.
Okay. Can you provide an update on our vertical business? Vertical, we were looking at what I mean, how is progress there, and can we expect some commercial revenue from this in FY25?
Yeah. FY 2025, definitely. We hope we can launch it in first quarter. If not, then definitely second quarter of next financial year. And we are devising a strategy which should be different from the current players, and we hope to do well there. And hopefully, the establishment of network will help us in selling both Cefiderocol and Cefepime Enmetazobactam.
Thank you. Mr. Kumar, do you have any more questions? The next question is from the line of. Participants are requested to press one and one to join the question queue. The next question is from the line of Nihar Shah from Crown Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my question again. I missed the export and domestic revenue. Can you just repeat it again for me?
Yeah. So domestic and export is normally between domestic is around 15%-18% for Orchid. And again, these numbers we normally show annual because quarter-on-quarter, one shipment here or there could be INR 10 crore, INR 20 crore, and this way the numbers. So annual basis, the number should be around 18%.
Okay. And are we aiming to increase the domestic market, or this share should be good enough going ahead?
I think that our figure, both domestic and export markets should grow healthily.
Okay. Okay. And are we taking some steps to optimize our cost in order to increase our margins?
That is a continuous process any API company has to do. That's absolutely essential for us.
Yeah. As we talked about in our speech, if you look at all our cost ratios with respect to sales, have been improving. That's where we believe our leverage strategy of leveraging the assets and higher cost rates of Orchid comes into play. That's what's going to continuously work on improving the margins for the company.
However, I'd just like to add that there are some businesses that we are now trying to develop, for example, the antimicrobial solutions. So we are assembling a team of people who would be working on the strategy. So maybe next one or two quarters, those expenses would be loaded without any revenue. Similarly, the new sterile block that we have commissioned, which has not yet come to the optimized utilization. So obviously, the costs increase, and the revenue increases maybe after two quarters. So that much of a lag on expenses would be there.
Okay. Okay. That's all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you. A reminder to all the participants that you may press star and one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Sanjay Kumar from ithoughtPMS. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. First on Cefiderocol. What will be the number of patients that we can assume for LMIC? If I assume two weeks of treatment and three vials per day, so total 40 vials each patient is a reasonable assumption?
Yeah. So per patient treatment is 60 vials because it's three times a day but 2 grams, so 6 vials. So that means on an average of 7-14 days, if you take that average of 10 days, so 6 vials per patient. And in terms of LMIC patients, you can count roughly, I think, 40%-50% of the deaths which are happening due to AMR as reported by the Global Burden of Disease data, which is about 5 million people. 60% of those deaths reported are from H1 disease, maybe even more. So the current projections that we are discussing with Shionogi and GARDP, imagine that initial market out of the total 135 countries applied, the first wave of 14 countries should have roughly 70%-80% share from India.
70%-80% share from?
India.
Oh, okay. Okay. So INR 5 million 50% will be INR 2.5 million is the target market?
Ha. In terms of count, you can see it.
Okay. Per vial cost will be roughly $10?
No, it's difficult to put a number to that. Current cost of per vial is roughly $200 in the US market.
Until the process development and costing is not done, it's difficult to comment.
Okay. GARDP lacks experience in marketing. Will that impact our distribution, our sales in LMIC, or will they find another entity to do that for them?
So there would be a partnership model. There would be offering commercial sublicense if they've offered to Orchid here in India. Let's say the next country is Pakistan, so they will find a partner over there. So what GARDP has is basically access to the molecule. They are the licensee from Shionogi, and they will further issue sublicenses.
GARDP's charter does not talk about selling the product. They are not a for-profit company. They will never have a sales experience. Their idea is, how do they marry the product to the market and facilitate that there's easy access so that it's affordable for low- and middle-income countries? That's their charter. Every country, they will have to go and find a partner.
Okay. Okay. Our agreement with them, Mr. Rupesh, and I was going through it says, "25% PBT margin is allowed." So will it be 20%, or can it even be the full 25% PBT margin plus, or is it too early, sir?
Yes, that's correct.
Yeah. So the number is all decided. The costing will be decided once the process development is completed.
Okay. Second on Enmetazobactam, in India, you said INR 7,000 crore market, we might get single-digit market share. In a media interview, you had said cumulative sales globally for the next 10 years could be $2 billion. If you could share the number of patients or how to derive this $2 billion figure, that would be very helpful.
Sorry. On Enmetazobactam, you talked about?
Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. So actually, it's a very difficult exercise. We have used several secondary indicators to try and estimate some numbers. For example, Piperacillin-Tazobactam, when it was understood, was a billion-dollar product just for the U.S. market. Ceftazidime-Avibactam currently is a $500 million product in Tokyo. So this $2 billion number is over 10 years cumulative sales. So looking at some of these indicators, the price points, the need, the requirements, we hired some experts, and we have come up with this estimate.
Okay. And finally, both your products, Enmetazobactam seems to be a narrow-spectrum antibiotic which covers only ESBL and. In that spectrum, beta-lactamases. And Cefiderocol also seems to be ineffective against certain strains like New Delhi Metallo-beta-lactamases and a few more also. Is there any threat from other drugs in the pipeline, say, Sulbactam, Durlobactam, or WCK 5222? Are we talking to those innovators as well, the manufacturer, communicating this with them?
Oh, you're very well informed, Sanjay. So the thing is, today's drugs have to be narrow-spectrum so that we don't sensitize the bacteria to every drug, and the drugs can remain effective. I think all of these drugs must be used complementarily after identification of which is the best drug for the bacteria with which the patient is infected. The bacteria has its own mechanism with which they mutate and evolve. Like COVID, you were hearing, right? Omicron strain, this strain, that strain. It continuously evolves. The bacteria do the same thing. All the organizations who are inventing molecules in the world will need to make sure they are managed responsibly so that there are enough antibiotics available for the patients to be treated locally.
Okay. Are we talking to any of these innovators as well, just in case?
As of now, no.
Okay. All right. All right. So that's information. Thank you and all the very best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Participants may press star and one to ask a question. The next follow-up question is from the line of Rupesh Tatiya from Intels ense Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you for the opportunity, sir. I think I had to call last time. So one clarification, sir. Hospital business, can we pencil in 5%-10% of these for Cefepime FY2 5?
5%-10% of Orchid total? That would be a really high number.
That would be? Sorry?
That would be a large number for first year. But yeah, in a few years' time, yes.
Okay. Okay. I see, sir. And then another, sir, is number question. Can you tell the capital outlay for 7-ACA and 6-APA projects?
Yeah. So 7-ACA, we've talked about INR 600 crore of investment, and for 7-ACA project, between $10 -$15 million.
So this INR 600 crore for 7-ACA, does that include working capital as well, or that's just the fixed assets?
No, it includes the entire project cost.
Oh, I mean, can you split it between fixed assets and working capital? I think in one of the previous presentations, you have given a number of INR 400 crore fixed assets, I think.
No, I think there is some mistake. We are right now not in a position to split it for you. But the detailed engineering stage is complete. That's where probably we might have more details.
I think number, we have already talked about 600. I think.
Okay, sir. And then this Cefiderocol $15 million investment, I mean, what kind of assets would that investment have?
I mean, it's difficult to say. The problem with the Cefiderocol is rather, let me say the advantage. The idea is not to actually sell the molecule. It should only be given in case everything else fails to work. And I just stated the Global Burden of Disease dataset, what are the possible number of patients. So theoretically, the asset tells me to be very high. But unfortunately, right now, we don't have the technology. We don't have a target price. We don't have the price elasticity study. So it would be too soon. That is the only reason our license, which is public, talks about a PBT margin rather than a cost plus with a typical target price for a CMO.
Okay, sir. The other way to ask this question is, this would be something like 1-10-year investment. Is that good enough?
Sorry?
Consider 1-10-year.
Sorry?
I mean, consider 10 years. Consider 10 years investment. There would not be any follow-on investments.
It would depend. Like another person asked on the call, what is the total potential of the product who needs this medicine? So right now, without having an idea about how much we can reduce the price, it's difficult to say. Current capacity that we are setting up is 4 million vials. And if the demand goes to 5 million, obviously, we might have to set up more. But all of this is too early to.
To give you the perspective, the objective of GARDP and Shionogi is that the product does not sell. But the reality is antimicrobial resistance is growing every day. So considering that, they have asked us to keep a scope in such a way, we are designing a plant in such a way that with minimal investment, we can increase the capacity three times. So while the ideal situation would be that not so much of this product is required, but we do anticipate that there will be a significant growth in demand if we look at 135 countries. But to be honest, to give a number in financial terms would not be correct because the marketing strategy is not decided by us. It's decided by GARDP and Shionogi. And the pricing strategy is not decided by us. So it would not be correct to give numbers to you.
Okay. Okay, sir. Thank you. Thank you so much for answering my question. Best of luck.
Thank you. As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference to the manager for closing comments.
Thank you. So dear investors, thank you once again for showing confidence in Orchid Pharma. We assure you, we will try and work as hard as possible to take this company to the level that it deserves, the infrastructure that Orchid has, the kind of projects that we have taken up. We really hope that this company has some bright future ahead of us in the next few years. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of Systematix Institutional Equities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your line.