Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Petronet LNG's Q3 FY25 earnings conference call hosted by Macquarie. For the discussion today, we have with us the management team comprising Mr. Vinod Kumar Mishra, Director of Finance, Mr. Rakesh Chawla, Group General Manager and President of Finance and Accounts, Mr. Gyanendra Sharma, who is the Group General Manager and President of Marketing, Mr. Vivek Mittal, Chief General Manager and Vice President of Marketing, Mr. Debabrata Satpathy, who is General Manager, Finance and Accounts, and Mr. Vikas Maheshwari, who is Deputy General Manager, Finance and Accounts. So, with that, I would now hand over the call to the management for their opening remarks, and then we'll follow it up with a question-and-answer session. Over to you, sir.
Thank you. Very good morning to all of you, and as you know, we have been surprising you every time whenever we give the results. Although our throughput has not been that high as it should have been, and if you look at the throughput in Dahej this time, it has been 213 TBTU, as against 225 TBTU in the previous quarter and 218 TBTU in the corresponding quarter. Overall, throughput has been 228 TBTU, including Dahej and Kochi this time, and this is against 239 TBTU in the previous quarter and 232 TBTU in the corresponding quarter. If you look at the nine-month result, it has been the highest ever, and the total throughput in Dahej has been 686 TBTU, as against 646 TBTU in the previous nine months, previous year's nine months.
Overall throughput has been 729 TBTU, as against 685 TBTU in the corresponding nine months of the previous year. If you look at the financial result this time, it has been 1,169 crore as PBT this time, as against 1,140 crore of PBT during this last corresponding quarter and 1,191 crore, sorry, 1,597 crore in the corresponding quarter. PAT has been 867 crore in the current quarter, as against 848 crore in the corresponding quarter and 1,191 crore in the previous quarter. Sorry, it has been 867 crore in the current quarter, as against the previous quarter of 848 crore and 1,191 crore of the corresponding quarter. If you look at overall nine-month result, the PBT has been 3,829 crore, as against 3,761 crore in the previous year's nine months.
And PAT has been this time INR 2,856 crore, as against that of INR 2,799 crore in the previous year, nine months. So this is the financial result. And as you know, that has been less. We have been able to get higher profit than the previous quarter, although it is very marginal. Thank you very much. And now, house is open for the question.
Thank you very much, sir. We'll now begin the question and answer session. I request all participants to use the raise hand feature to ask questions, and in order to ensure wider participation, I would request everyone to please limit their question count to one, and you can always join back in the queue for further questions if time permits, so we'll now take the questions. We'll take the first question from Puneet Gulati. Puneet, request you to please go ahead and ask your question. Puneet, you seem to be on mute. Can you unmute and ask your question, please?
Yes. Can you hear me?
Yes.
Okay. Great. Yeah. So thank you so much. So I think my first question is on the volume side. So while your total volumes have still been decent, but what we are seeing is that the long-term volumes have been below 100 TBTU. It used to be higher than that, both in FY 2023-24. So what's driving this bit of slowness on the long-term side for Dahej? Any thoughts there?
Okay. So if you look at the volume in Dahej, it has been lower as compared to—you're saying that it's compared to the corresponding quarter?
Yeah. I mean, just a trend also. Last three quarters have been 96-97 TBTU. So previous year was 100-107 TBTUs, and even FY23 was 100 plus.
I think volume-wise, if you look at long-term, it's a scheduling we are doing. As per ADP, we are getting. Because long-term volume, slightly maybe here and there, but normally it remains same because it's a scheduled arrival of the cargoes. I don't foresee any fall in that. But of course, the spot and the other cargoes, which are coming, service cargoes, they are affected by current prices being higher or lower. So that may be there. But otherwise, long-term cargoes may be slightly lesser, but it doesn't matter because it's as per the annual delivery schedule. So not much difference from the previous quarter. But of course, from the corresponding quarter, it is less.
Okay. Second question is on the UOP dues. Any progress there? We noticed that there is another one for CY27 as well, INR 117 crore. Any progress on what the off-takers are now willing to pay? You had a bank guarantee. Can you enforce that? Any further thoughts there?
Yeah. That bank guarantee is there. And in fact, we have already informed all the off-takers. And they will reply by 31st March. We will send the letters that we are going to invoke the bank guarantee. But at the same time, they have sought some time till 31st March because the bank guarantees are valid till 31st March. So only a period of two months that we have to wait. And thus, they will pay the use or pay charges for 21 at least.
Understood. That's real. And lastly, if you can share the revenue for services part of the business?
For services, I think it's INR 680 crore.
600?
Yes, charges.
600?
80 crore.
Okay. Okay. Great. That's all from my side. Thank you so much.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from Amit Murarka. Amit, request you to unmute your line and please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Good morning. First question is on the Dahej facility within the expansion. It's now just around the corner.
Amit, we can't hear you properly.
Amit, you are not audible.
Hello? Is it better? Is it better now?
Yes, better now.
But before that, there is a clarification. This regas revenue has been INR 840 crores, not INR 680 crore, as I mentioned earlier. So just a small correction we just made.
Amit, now you may go ahead.
Amit, now you can continue.
Yeah. Yeah. So I was asking about the Dahej terminal. You're just around the corner on the 5 million ton expansion. And the current capacity kind of, at least in Q3, has not achieved 100%. So I was just thinking, what's the plan on the ramp-up of this 5 million ton and how much of this is under firm off-take agreements? Just could you provide some clarity on that?
Yes. In fact, if you look at the capacity utilization, it has been 93% this time. But we hope this will continue. But as far as the expansion is concerned, we are looking forward to have capacity booking on that also. And certainly, this time, because you see, in the first quarter, we were not able to have more cargoes because of the constraint in capacity. So utilization will be there. Just wait for some time because this capacity will be in place maybe by June. I think it should be in place. Before that, we should be able to do some booking for the capacity also. We are looking forward for that. And we are talking to the off-takers to book more capacity in our terminal. But it may not be 100% of 5 million tons, but it could be maybe 40%-50% also.
That will be good enough. But we will have more capacity to re-gas more spot volumes coming in the future because in the future, the growth is already there. More terminals are also coming. But at the same time, more long-term contracts have been signed. So I think there is a chance that more cargoes will come to our Dahej terminal in the future. And we are hoping for capacity booking also to the extent of 40%-50%.
Would you be able to at least give ballpark guidance on how we can think of a ramp-up on this 5 million ton between let's say year one, year two, FY26, FY27?
Cannot be told exactly how much will be the ramp-up. We are ready from day one. It will be possible.
Yeah. Ballpark is also okay. Are you thinking about 30%-40% for FY 2026 and maybe 60%-70% for 2027?
Like that, it may happen. But it is also subject of what the international spot prices are. As you know, the Indian market is very, very price-sensitive. So last summer, we saw the prices softening. There was a lot of utilization. We were doing more than 109%-110% of our capacity. So if we achieve those kind of prices, which is expected with the coming of new liquefaction plants specifically in the later half of this year, so if prices soften, then utilization level, of course, increases. And because the competitiveness of LNG increases with all these alternate fuels. So let's hope that the prices soften, which will help us in utilization and increasing share of gas in the energy basket also.
On the Petronet, again, are you providing any CapEx outlay now? I mean, in terms of your wise, I mean, you were saying that even if at 2.5x CapEx, you were saying that you will come back maybe closer to year-end. So what's the expectation on CapEx now for FY25 and FY26?
Right now, we see this year, it has been almost ₹340 crore. We expect at least 15%, 10-15% of the CapEx, maybe ₹3,000-₹3,500 crore. This is the expectation for the next year, eventually at 2025, 2026.
So just if I can ask one last question, you have also announced some contracting on the polymer capacity under the Dahej terminal. So could you provide some more details on that? What kind of pricing is there? Is it based on some last quarter average pricing? What are the pricing terms on that contract?
We are talking about this Deepak Phenolics.
Yeah. Yeah. Deepak Phenolics.
I think we cannot disclose because this is something which is between the two parties. But this is a price which will ensure us that we are always having some margin while selling the. There is no chance that we will be losing anything on this.
It will link to international prices, of course.
International prices link.
Link to international prices will be linked.
We cannot give the formula exactly. What is the formula for that? But of course, it will be at par with any international price.
So it's not a cost-plus contract. It's linked to international prices then.
It's not exactly the same as you are saying, but as I said, this is more dependent on Southeast Asia as price, so it's more like that.
Sure. I'll come back in the queue. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from Maulik Patel. Maulik, please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. In the last two years, GAIL and IOC and GSPC have signed a few of the long-term contracts, largely starting from 2026. I think one of the contracts of GAIL has also started in this month also. Has any of this volume going to come to Dahej or Kochi? Has any of this discussion happened with GAIL, IOC, or GSPC on that?
Yeah. Of course, volume will come to us also because it's not that whatever volume they have signed with their other terminals, it's not possible to utilize entire volume over there. So definitely, our terminal will be utilized. As I earlier said, that our capacity is going to expand by five million tons in the next four, five months. So then it will be utilized for that purpose. Of course, as I said, that more long-term contracts mean more volume to Dahej. So see, it's not possible to utilize additional volumes in other terminals. Looking at the kind of capacity or utilization level at other places because consumption is not that high along that terminal. So if you look at Dahej, there is huge potential for the consumption. So whatever volume is coming long-term after 2026, definitely it will come. Majority should come to us.
We hope that at least 50% of that should come to us.
So you mean that approximately there's a 4.5 million tons of long-term volume has been signed by these three players? You expect approximately 2 million tons to come to Dahej, additional volume?
Maybe. But I cannot give the figure exactly. But we hope like that. As I said, that we are trying to get the capacity booked in off-takers so that they can bring more volume here. So maybe that 40%-50% of the volume which has been posted will come to us.
They need to book the capacity to Dahej, right? Additional capacity, which they have not done. Or are you in discussion to book that additional capacity?
We are in discussion always that whatever capacity is available, they should book it because it's in their interest. Because otherwise, whenever they will have additional volumes, it will not be possible to get the slots they want. So we are in discussion with them. Let you know.
Yeah, and just one bookkeeping question. What's the trading or inventory gain this quarter? Probably I missed if you have mentioned it earlier.
Trading gain is INR 26 crore, and inventory gain is INR 83 crore.
This inventory gain is related to Dahej internal consumption, which is 0.7%, which has been taken by which has allowed you to take for internal consumption. Is this inventory gain related to that?
There has been a movement in the prices, as you know, from the last quarter to this quarter. It is largely because of the movement in price.
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from Shubham Shukla. Shubham, please go ahead. Shubham, request you to please unmute your line and go ahead. We can't hear you, Shubham. We'll take the next question for now. We'll take the next question from Shivam Sharma. Shubham, please go ahead with your question.
Hello. I'm audible?
Yes, Shubham. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So I have two questions. Essentially, first question is understanding the tax structure which is valid for Petronet once it imports the LNG cargoes from countries like Qatar, then basic customs duty and SWS. Do you also pay VAT? And when you sell this gas to companies like GAIL, what is the kind of VAT etc. which you pay? Because the motive for me to ask this question was to understand the impact of GST for Petronet once the natural gas comes under GST. And the other question stands at that we have seen about 25% growth of IOCL of LNG imports. Yet it is not reflected in the kind of volumes you are showing this quarter. So what do you think has been the bottleneck in order to revamp the volumes according to the revamping of the LNG imports in India?
First question, I will answer that. What is the tax structure? As you know, natural gas is not under GST as of now. We are, in fact, pursuing Ministry of Petroleum and then Ministry of Finance that it should be included because this is rational and it will give a lot of comfort to the consumers. I think it is going on. Discussion is going on. Maybe government is keen to include it. Ministry of Petroleum is continuously following with Ministry of Finance for bringing this under GST. As of now, if it is not there, in Gujarat the rate of VAT is 15%, which we are levying on the off-takers while selling RLNG or LNG. Locally, they are taking gas to other states also, these off-takers. There, they are again charging VAT while selling it to their consumers, their customers.
This is how the tax structure is. And of course, as I said, that VAT 15% is a big problem in Gujarat because it is, in fact, levied. And again, the state tax wherever gas is sold again by our off-takers, they are again paying VAT of that state. So it's a cascading effect of the VAT which is there. And I think that anomaly has to be removed. And this can be done only through inclusion of natural gas under the ambit of GST. So this is how the tax structure is. And in case this natural gas comes under GST, it will be a huge benefit to the ultimate consumers because the cascading effect of tax will go and they will be able to get the input tax levy. And in Kerala, where we have Kochi terminal, the rate of VAT is 5%.
So there, it is not that high. And most of the gas is consumed in Kerala or nearby towns or cities. So I think Kerala, there is not an issue. But the gas coming from Gujarat has a VAT of 15%, which is very high.
But this is something which needs to be paid by the off-takers, right? The VAT does not get levied when you import the LNG from companies like QatarGas. When you sell it to GAIL, when you sell it to off-takers, then it's there.
Then only it is there.
Absolutely. And do you get some kind of credit also, input credit, or do off-takers get some kind of credit also when they take the gas to some nearby states like Delhi? Or even if they take the gas to, let's say, somewhere, someplace in Gujarat itself, do they get the input tax?
In case of gas consumed in Gujarat, they may get some input tax, right? But for the gas taken away from Gujarat, which is not used in Gujarat, they don't get any input tax, right?
Understood. Understood. And the second question was again, the impact which you see the 25% growth of LNG imports was there by IOCL. But yet we see a decline in the utilization for your terminal. So why do you think that the utilization has not ramped up according to the imports volume?
This is not, Shubham, this is not correct. Looking at quarter-on-quarter basis, it may be lower. But you look at the nine-month period, we have 686 TBTU brought in Dahej as against 646 TBTU in the nine months of the previous year. So there is a growth. So saying that the volume has reduced in this quarter, don't compare only this quarter. You take the nine-month period from April to December. You'll find that we have brought more than last year. This is the highest ever throughput of 729, including both the terminal in this quarter after taking the all three quarters after December. So don't compare quarter-on-quarter basis because we gain the capacity also to the off-takers that they can bring within the calendar year till December. So they bring as per their convenience.
But you look at the nine-month period, you'll find that we have 686 TBTU brought in Dahej as against 646 TBTU brought in last year nine months. And Kochi also, it has been 43 TBTU in nine months as against 39 TBTU in the last year nine months. So this is the difference. So we have a growth trajectory, you see.
Is it more or less in line with the growth of India's LNG imports?
It is in line with India's LNG imports. So I think there is no concern on that account. So don't compare each quarter as a standalone. Look at the overall in the last three quarters also.
Understood. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from Pratyush Kamal. Pratyush, please go ahead.
Thanks a lot for giving this opportunity, sir.
Hello? Yes, Pratyush, we can hear you. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So my question stands out that I wanted to understand the gain which you get on the marketing, the margins, other than the regasification charges which you put on the off-takers. So I just wanted to understand whether the margins are put on just on the spot cargoes or also on the cargoes which is back-to-back long-term 7.5 MTPA contract or the 1.4 MTPA contract with ExxonMobil. So how does it work? So other than the regasification charges, the service charges, how do you make the other margin, the trading margins?
Long-term contracts, as you know, these are back-to-back contracts. And there is no marketing margin charge on that. It's only the volume which we are selling, in fact, on the short-term basis. We are charging some margin. But otherwise, if you look at, it's only the regasification charges which are there, which is charged. There is no other marketing margin charge for the long-term contract, including this 1.425 MMTPA of long-term contract. So it's only the spot we sell or short-term gas we sell that we charge marketing margin. But long-term contracts are back-to-back. There is no marketing margin.
Understood. And what is the kind of provisioning reversal which we can see this quarter and a few quarters beyond this for FY 2021 and 2022? And what is the update on the FY 2023 UOP charges?
If you look at 2021 provisioning, if you look at, we have made total provision till date of INR 315 crores out of the total INR 360 crores. So 87.5% of the provisioning is already made. And we expect this to be realized by 31st March. Hopefully, when we get this money, then we will gain because we have made the provision to the extent of INR 315 crores. If we get the money against the use of the charges, this will be adding to our bottom line. And you are saying about this year's use of the charges?
Yes.
That is 117 crores only. And what is the good part? That the defaulters have considerably reduced this time. Earlier year, you must have seen four, five off-takers all had defaulted. But this time, only one customer has defaulted. That is BPCL, 117 crores. Otherwise, all have complied with the contractual obligation this time. There is no default on any accounts. So whatever concession we are making is just to discipline them so that in future, there is no default. Maybe last two years, three years, we have given them time to bring the volume and get it waived. But at the same time, we have to see that this contract is a long-term contract for regasification. And we have to, in fact, think about what kind of discipline in the contract.
If they fall in line with our due issue, then perhaps there is no reason why we should not give some kind of relaxation in the past period, which is evident from this time because they have utilized the entire contractual capacity. They have complied with their obligations as per the contracts. Only one customer has defaulted. Hopefully, next year, that will also be not there.
But FY 2021, 2022, you do have the bank guarantee. But what about the FY 2023, 2024 defaults, if any? FY 2023, we know there was a default. So what about those defaults? How do you plan to recover the amount which has been defaulted since you don't have any bank guarantee?
Yes. Yes. To finish this, 2023 also, we have got the approval of the board yesterday. And we are going to give the same kind of mechanism to bring the volume in next three years, maybe this by December 26 for 23 also. So this kind of dispensation, we have agreed. And perhaps they will provide us bank guarantee and indemnity bond. And thereafter, this particular mechanism will be available to them. So similar to 21, 22, 23 will also be there. So this is the mechanism for recovering ₹610 crores. As I said, this year, it is very marginal, ₹117 crores. Hopefully, next year, there will not be any default.
Understood, sir. And how does this provisioning work in the accounts? You make the provisions for the amount which has been defaulted. And whenever you get the money, you reverse that provisions. This is how it works, or is it different?
Yeah. So we are waiving off whatever use or pay charges are there. They bring additional volumes over and above the annual contractual commitment which they have made. So they bring the additional quantity over and above this annual commitment. Then we adjust to that extent the use or pay charges for that year, maybe 21 or 22. So this is like this.
Understood. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from Sabri Hazarika. Sabri, request you to please go ahead with your question.
Yeah. Hi. Am I audible?
Yes.
Yeah, so a few questions. Firstly, regarding your CAPEX, you said you'll be doing INR 1,500 crores this year, right, and next year, it will be INR 3,500 crores. Was that right?
This year, maybe around ₹1,500 crore because we have already spent ₹940 crore on ₹976 crore. Still nine months. Maybe you can take ₹3,400 crore more. ₹3,400 crore to ₹1,500 crore maybe.
How much will be on petrochemicals out of this ₹976 crores?
340 crores.
340 crores in petrochemicals.
Maybe it may further go. Maybe 500, it may happen after month.
Okay. Fair enough. Secondly, you gave this number, ₹840 crore of regas service income. So this includes the take or pay also, right? ₹117 crore is also included here. Is that right?
Yes.
Okay. So pure service income will be basically ₹840 crores minus ₹117 if we want to compare it with the volumes.
Yes. Yes. Yes. You can.
Okay. And thirdly, I mean, you have mentioned that INR 315 crores of provisions you have made. So as soon as the bank guarantee gets encashed in the books of accounts also, we will see INR 315 crores basically as a provision reversal in other expenditures for that particular quarter. So that is how the earnings will show, right?
Yes.
Okay. Okay. Fair enough. And lastly, the bookkeeping questions, I think, work on volumes in Dahej and in Dahej and in Dahej numbers, actually.
Work on volumes, YTD is 13 TBTU. You can derive the quarterly number.
Right and in days numbers?
It is ₹160 crores positive at gross margin level.
This is for quarter, right? Yeah. Yeah. Okay.
INR 53 crores of forex loss, INR 7 crores positive at the other expenses level. Depreciation INR 82 crores and finance cost INR 64 crores.
Okay. Okay. Got it. So INR 32 crores. And this other expense, does it have anything further other than forex loss? It's mainly 500.
No. Some small leases are also there which are affected. And the impact of that is taken in the other expenses. And the lease for the charters, time charters which bring the LNG, that is coming on the gross margin level.
Okay. Okay, sir. Thank you so much and all the best.
We'll take the next question from Mayank Maheshwari. Mayank, please go ahead.
Thank you for the call, sir. First question was on chemicals. In terms of the progress, can you just talk to us about where we are on the progress, what has been done, what's kind of going through in fiscal 2026 for you? And the second question was related to Dahej. You talked about 40%-50% utilization rate. So in your time frame over the next three to four years, how do you see the capacity mix between spot versus contracted for Dahej eventually panning out?
Question is regarding petrochemicals. So as you know, we are already going mid-May, and most of the things have been finalized in terms of long lead items. And we are in the process of placing orders for petrochemical. Maybe large and big items will be ordered right now, but it takes time to get those items because it takes some time. But we should be ordering this. We have already finalized and given it to our PMC, Engineers India Limited. We are now doing the tendering for placing of the orders. So as far as the CAPEX is concerned, as I said, we expect 3,000-3,500 crores of CAPEX next year for petrochemical complex. And as you know, we are also tying up with the vendors. And we are in the process already. We have invited a consultant who is doing this job.
We shall be doing the financial closure for financing of this project. As we have already told you earlier that it will be 70/30 debt-equity. Probably this will be finalized within the next three, four months. Thereafter, we shall be ready for any kind of CapEx. Initially, as you know, the CapEx will be hardly 15%-20% the first year, 2025, 2026. Then it may ramp up to 30% and again next year to 35%. Like that, it will be there. We expect that this year, there should be CapEx of around INR 3,000-3,500 crores for this back-end project. We shall be going in a big way very shortly because we have already made the preparations. As soon as the orders are placed, then we shall be going to get the provisions.
Thereafter, we shall be trying the contractors to start this work.
Is there anything on the imports, especially on ethane and propane? Is there any more progress that you have been able to make in terms of long-term contractual terms there? Has any progress been made for that?
We are in the process, and very shortly, you will come to know that what we are doing. We are vigorously following up with the suppliers for contracting. Only issue is that for ethane, as you know, we have to get some kind of tie-up. Because right now, there is no written agreement with the off-takers. Unless there is a tie-up, we cannot do long-term agreement for ethane because there is another model which has been discussed. Maybe that off-takers may bring their own ethane volume. We shall be doing only handling of this ethane. So this may happen like LNG level, so this may so happen. But otherwise, we are also ready for the kind of sourcing of ethane and then supplying it to the off-takers. As you know, one of the customers, OPaL, is there for ethane.
Right now, because we have a contract with RasGas, where we are getting rich gas and separating C2, C3 and giving it to ONGC and ONGC supplying to Opal. But going forward after 2028, Qatar has not committed any rich gas. So there is a difficulty for Opal because they will not get the rich gas. They cannot extract C2, C3. So that's why we are pursuing ONGC that they should tie up with us after 2028. We can import the ethane also and supply to them because it's in proximity to our Dahej plant. It is possible to supply from our Dahej plant. And it's easier to get it because we have our own jetty. Third jetty is being constructed. Has already started for third jetty, which can import three liquid hydrocarbons, ethane, propane, as well as LNG.
So I think as soon as the agreement is signed between TRPC and PLL, we shall source ethane. But as far as propane is concerned, we are looking forward to tie up for sourcing of the propane, either on short-term or mid-term or maybe long-term basis. This we have to see which is more beneficial.
Got it, sir. So I think on the ethane front, I think there has been quite a few petrochemical companies in the region who have been telling us ethane carriers has been a bit of a bottleneck. Do you see that as an issue when you're kind of trying to kind of contract whether you're for your own purpose or for third party as a logistical challenge?
Ethane carrier is, of course, a challenge because there is no ethane carrier available readily in the market. So we will have to order that ethane carrier. But the only thing is that if some off-taker is bringing its own ethane, then we need not order for that ethane carrier also. But in case they agree to sign an agreement with us to supply ethane as well as handling of the ethane, then certainly we will also order the ethane carrier. And that will be possible only after there is a tie-up with the customer. Otherwise, we will not do that because there is no need if we are not importing ethane.
Got it. And sir, the last question on the point.
Sorry to interrupt you. Request you to please join back in the queue.
Yeah. Sure.
the interest of time. Thank you. We'll take the next question from Ambar Taneja. Amber, please go ahead.
Hi. Can you hear me?
Yes. Yes.
Yes. You can hear me.
Yeah. Sir, please talk a little bit about two things. One is what kind of pricing environment do you see for short-term cargoes, let's say in the next 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, whatever you think is worth sharing with investors. And number two, can you talk a little bit about FX impact? Because we've seen some other companies that are into imported products. Some of them have been able to pass on. Some of them have not been able to pass on 3-4% depreciation. And I think widely expected that 4-5% next year as well. So anything in your contracts to protect? So appreciate if you can talk about these two things: spot prices, any term prices, and FX.
As far as the spot price is concerned, it is likely to remain in the range of $12-$14 in the next six months. This is our anticipation. But as I said, the future going forward, if you look at the capacities which will be available to the international market after 2026, we are hoping that these prices should be in the range of $7-$8. Because the capacities which is coming, more than 200 million tons of capacities are coming after 26, 27. I hope that there will be glut of LNG in the market. And when there will be glut, certainly its benefit will be to the consumers and the countries who are consuming the LNG.
Sir, when there was a previous glut, when gas went to $3 before COVID, then why did we not either buy some stakes in upstream or sign some new term contracts? I mean, that time went without us taking advantage, right? So I mean, is there a real benefit to having a glut without us taking action?
Not like that. That glut was there because of COVID. And that time, at $3, LNG plants are liquefaction plants are not sustainable. If had there been a pricing of $3, many plants would have shut down. It's not that it's a very viable price for LNG terminal also. But $6, $7, $8 is still a viable price for the LNG liquefaction. We will prepare that situation, which is very abnormal. But going forward, a lot of FIDs have been made. So I think these plants will be coming up in the next four, five years. You will see the glut in the sense that compared to the demand. I'm not saying this glut will always remain glut. Because once there is availability of more gas in the market, certainly more consumers will be there. And as you know, the energy growth is already there.
Consumption will already be there, so going up, energy consumption will be going up, so it will also match with the supply, but only thing pricing will be moderate. I am worried about pricing only. Indian market is price sensitive, and whenever the prices are lower, consumption suddenly rises. We have seen in our case also, our terminal utilizes maximum capacity when the prices are moderate. Had it been around $10, $9, our terminal would have been utilized more than 100%, so the pricing impact which is there on our utilization, it's true for the Indian consumers that they tend to utilize alternate fuels if the price is off LNG. As I said, $12-$14 is still a sustainable price, but it should be in the range of $7-$8, then certainly the consumption of LNG will be much, much more in India.
LNG consumers will be higher in India. So, looking at the kind of capacities which are coming in future, I hope that it should be in the range of $7-$8 in future. Right now, it is likely the next one, two years you see, it may range from $10-$14.
Okay. And anything about FX?
FX, as you know, that our long-term contract, whatever foreign exchange exposure is there, we are passing it to the off-takers. So there is no foreign exchange risk for us. So I don't foresee any FX impact on us. But for India's purpose, we normally assess this impact. But that certainly we are doing because Ind AS 116 is there where we are doing the lease accounting. So for that purpose, we are accounting this foreign exchange impact. But not in case of LNG where we are passing on the foreign exchange variation to the off-takers.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from Rishab Singh. Rishab, please go ahead. Rishab, request you to please go ahead with your question. Can't hear you, Rishab. We'll take the next question from Somayya V. Somayya, please go ahead with your question.
Hello.
Yes, please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Thanks for the opportunity, sir. So first question, the annual price hike that we take in Dahej for this year, have we taken it? What are the current tariffs in both Dahej and Kochi? And if you could share any timeline that we are looking for for this 2028 long-term contract tariffs?
The hike is there in Dahej. And we have taken from 1st of January, we have hiked our price of regasification by 5%.
What are the current tariffs both in Dahej and?
Normally, we are not disclosing because it's been a good thing. But only question which has been answered that there is a hike of 5% from the.
Okay, sir. Got it.
Data in the market, you can add it. We cannot disclose it.
Got it, sir. So also on this 2028 long-term 7.5 MLT.
Long-term contract, we are in fact in discussion, and shortly after, maybe sometime, may take six months or maybe one year time finalizing, but still, there is enough time left for finalizing the contract, but they have committed that they will take entire volume on back-to-back basis as has been done in the existing contract when it was signed with RasGas, and similar off-take arrangement will be there. Only thing we have to finalize certainly in terms of the contract. It will be very shortly, maybe six months to one year, it will be finalized, and then we shall sign the contract, and if you go ahead.
Got it, sir. So second question is on Kochi terminal. So how do we see utilization? I mean, the Kochi-Mangalore pipeline progress, how do we see it for the next couple of years? So from 25%, do we see it going to 40%-45% in the next couple of years?
Yes, yes, sir. As far as the Kochi terminal is concerned, as I have earlier conferences also, I have told that this Kochi-Mangalore section is yet to be connected. And as of now, the connectivity from Kochi to Coimbatore is there. But from Coimbatore to Bangalore, connectivity is still maybe by June or June 2025, it should be ready. Once it is connected to Bangalore section, there is a likelihood that utilization level will further increase because then it will be connected to national gas grid. And as you know, that once it is connected to national gas grid, we can swap the volumes and can sell our Kochi gas anywhere in India. Or any other customer also can take our Kochi gas and supply to the nearby customers. So that benefit will be there because as you know, that there is a unified tariff regime already there.
In zone one, the tariff is around INR 40. If any customer like GAIL has any customer in Kochi region or near Kerala or near Karnataka, they will prefer to take volume from us by swapping this gas and then supply to the customer because then customer will be benefited as they will be charged the zone one tariff of INR 40. Because if they bring it from Dabhol and supply to a customer in Karnataka or in Kerala, then the zone three tariff will be there, which is around INR 140. It will be in the interest of the consumer that they should get the gas from the nearest source available. It's not only me that I will supply the gas.
It is also possible that any other off-takers, whether it be IOCL or GAIL or BPCL, they can take their volumes to be supplied in this region, Karnataka and Kerala from Kochi instead of bringing it from Dahej or Dabhol so that they can give the competitive price of the gas to the consumers. So then it will be utilized, I think 40%-50% is connected to national gas grid.
Got it. So one clarification on the Petchem. You mentioned ₹3,500 crore of CapEx per annum. So what would be the non-Petchem spend in FY 2025-26? That is one. And I mean, the timelines for the Petchem startup, if you can just confirm on that. Thank you.
PETCAM, as you know, that this time 24, 25, they are likely to spend ₹400. We have already spent around ₹40 crores. Next year, we are planning to spend around ₹3,000-₹3,500 crores of CAPEX for petrochemical, and as you said, when it is likely to come up, our scheduled date is November 2027, so that is the time when it should be commissioned, and maybe by 2028, it should be ready for commission, so I think this is the timelines for completion of PETCAM project.
Non-PETCAM CAPEX?
Non-Petronet CapEx is around till nine months, INR 626 crore.
Looking for FI 2526.
FY24, 25 will be. I will just need to other than PETCAM, it should be around INR 1,000 crore maximum. Because the major project which is going on is Dahej jetty. All these contracts have been awarded, and total contract value is around INR 1,904 crores. That is a major CapEx item going on. Apart from that, CapEx is only PETCAM. As Gopalpur will start as and when the approvals are there, so I think this is a major. I think INR 1,000 crore more. Maybe INR 4,000 crore total CapEx may be there. INR 4,000-INR 4,500 crores, including PETCAM.
Got it, Rishab. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from Nirmal Gore. Nirmal, please go ahead with your question.
Hello. Thank you for the opportunity. My question is a follow-up to the global LNG gas capacity that you were talking about. So my question is just a clarification. When do you see this gas flood happening? Is it second half of 2026 or 2027?
Nirmal, just repeat your question. Your voice is not audible.
Hello.
Am I audible now?
Now it's audible.
Please continue. Yeah. My question is a follow-up to a previous question that you answered. Wanted to understand when do you see the gas flood happening due to increased global LNG capacity? Is it 2026 second half or 2027?
It should be 2027 onward, I think, because most of the plants are under construction. Next two to three years, they should be ready for production. You take it 2027 onward because even RasGas is this other energy projects are also likely to be completed by 2027. After that, only this and ramp up also takes some time. Maybe 2027, 2028, maybe the year, then there will be likely glut. But real glut will be 2035. 2030, it will be there. 150-200 million tons of capacities will be there by 2030. That means that 150-200 million tons capacity is in addition to whatever is there right now. I think that is what I was talking about as most of the projects are under construction. After assuming the office by Mr.
Donald Trump, it is likely that drill baby drill kind of concept that has a production of gas and oil in the U.S. that will further be promoting the production of gas in the international market.
So this $7-$8 price that you were mentioning about, we should see that in 2030?
We are expecting only. I'm not saying it will be $7-$8 in two, three years. But maybe after 2027, 2028, it should be there. Because this energy capacity itself will be ramping up to almost 143 MMTPA from 77 MMTPA. They are doubling their capacity almost. So that means that there will be enough gas available in the market. So I'm talking about only. The U.S. capacities are coming up in a big way. That's why I'm saying 150-200 MMTPA will be there.
Understood, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. In the interest of time, we'll take the last question from Nitin Tiwari. Nithin, please go ahead with your question.
Hello. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. I hope I'm audible. Just like some clarification I was seeking. So in terms of Use or Pay, right, given the provisioning we have made and the kind of Use or Pay charges that stand as of date, so now we are clear that no more cargoes can be brought in to make up for those charges. I mean, the timeline for that was December last year. That is, our understanding is correct?
Yes, yes. It is correct. For 2021 calendar year, this is over now. Whatever cargoes they have brought, there is no time left now.
Right. So whatever the charges are there for 2022 and 2023, they are still open for cargoes to be brought in against them. That's the right understanding.
There's time till December 25 for calendar year 2025.
Right. So sir, if you can just summarize for us in terms of what are the current use or pay charges that are outstanding, what is the provision that we have made against them which are now non-recoverable, I mean, sort of provision that we have done, and what is the recovery that we have done against the use or pay charges by the cargoes which are brought in? I suppose there is a figure which is given in the result release as well of ₹184 crore roughly. So is that the kind of?
That is the kind of waiver we have done. ₹184 crore. This quarter, we have done ₹29 crore.
Correct, sir. Just for keeping all of us on the same page, so what are the current use or pay charges which are outstanding, and what is the provisioning that we have made, and against what are we expecting now the cargoes can be brought in for recovery? What amount?
So look at the total use or pay charges as of now are INR 1,666 crores. And we have made a provision of INR 702 crores. So around 963, 964 crores is the charges other than provision, net of provision.
Right. So if you look at the 2021 calendar year, I've told you clearly that there is no time left. So whatever charges are there, INR 360 crore, they are due for payment. There cannot be any waiver of the charges now. And as far as calendar year 2022 is concerned, INR 695 crore is there, out of which provisioning is already made in respect of INR 295 crore. So this is the provision of 2022. But there is still time left for utilization of this capacity. We can still get this benefit. There will be more cargoes this year in December 2025. And as far as calendar year 2023 is concerned, total use or pay charges are INR 610 crore, for which we have extended similar scheme as has been done for 2021, 2022. They will give the bank guarantee and indemnity bond. And then they can bring this volume till December 2026. Understood.
The INR 184 crore that has been recovered, it has been recovered against the INR 360 crore use or pay charges of 2021, right?
Not exactly. Maybe 2022 also. This is combined impact because we are giving impact for both the years. But some of the cargoes have defaulted in 2022 only. So they have brought the cargoes. So 2022 charges have been reversed. So it's combined, 2021 and 2022, 184.
Understood. So basically, your net INR 963 crores which are now outstanding, cargoes can be brought in against this amount only because INR 700 crores is already provisioned for?
Yes, yes, yes. INR 700 crore has already been provided.
Right. And, sir, I missed out on the inventory gain number that you mentioned for the quarter.
As I said, ₹83 crore is the inventory gain. ₹26 crore is trading gain. Total ₹109 crore.
Right, and lastly, sir, so if everything remains the same as far as pricing environment is concerned for LNG, so what is the kind of utilization we are looking at in FY 26? I mean, in terms of throughput, what are we looking at?
Utilization level, as you know, that this quarter, it has been 93%. But we expect this to remain in the range of 95%-100%.
On the expanded capacity. That's what you're talking about. So I'm looking for some guidance for the throughput, right?
Throughput is already highest ever in nine months. So I think this will continue. We are always optimistic about our throughput.
Okay. No specific guidance that you can provide in terms of, say, TBTU or million?
It's not my guidance. It's market. It has to decide it. But we can only expect it that it should be in this range. Accordingly, if you look at nine months, it has been wonderful. As I said, highest ever volume throughput. So there should not be any challenge as such as far as the throughput is concerned. And I said that 95% to 100% is already to be utilized.
Okay, sir. Great. Thanks for answering my question, sir. Thanks for the opportunity.
Thank you, everyone. That was the last question, and before we end, on behalf of Macquarie, I would like to thank the management for the opportunity to host this earnings call. Over to the management team for any closing remarks.
Thank you very much to all of you. And as I said, that we have been able to give a better performance this time as compared to previous quarter, this corresponding quarter. But still, a lot we expected could not be done. But hopefully, in future, we will try to bring in more volume, utilize the terminals more and more to the extent of at least 100%. And our effort is whatever is the expansion going to take place in next year, it should also be utilized to a great extent. So now your capacity utilization next year will be in terms of the expanded capacity. So we have to look at that, how much we can utilize in future. But as I said, that we are committed to do to give the best performance. And thank you very much to all of you.