Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Petronet LNG Limited Q4 FY 2024 earnings conference call, hosted by PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing the star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Nitin Tiwari from PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Steve. Good day, ladies and gentlemen. On behalf of PhillipCapital, I welcome everyone to Petronet LNG's Q4 FY 2024 earnings call. From Petronet LNG, we have the pleasure of having with us today, Shri Vinod Kumar Mishra, Director of Finance, Shri Rakesh Chawla, GGM & President, Finance & Accounts, Shri Gyanendra Kumar Sharma, GGM & President, Marketing, Shri Vivek Mittal, CGM and Vice President, Marketing, Shri Debabrata Satpathy, General Manager, Finance & Accounts, Shri Vikas Maheshwari, Deputy General Manager, Finance & Accounts. I will now hand over the floor to PLL's management for their opening remarks, which shall be followed by a Q&A session. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Nitin, and, very good morning to all of you. So first of all, I will start with the performance of Dahej. And if you look at the physical performance at Dahej, this time, in this Q4, we have processed 219 TBTU, as against 172 TBTU in the corresponding quarter, and, 218 TBTU in the previous quarter. And if you look at the overall throughput of Dahej and Kochi taken together, then it's, 234 TBTU, and, it was, basically 185 TBTU in the corresponding quarter, and 232 TBTU in the previous quarter. So there has been, highest ever, throughput, in this Q4.
We compare all Q4 till now, so this is very good that physically we have been able to perform better in Dahej this time. The overall throughput has been at Dahej for the entire year 865 TBTU, as against 704 TBTU in the corresponding previous year. It has also improved drastically, and it has gone up almost 26% higher, 26% higher. So I think physically we have performed well this quarter, and if you look at the quarterly results, it has been INR 996 crore of PBT in this Q4 2024, as against INR 818 crore in the corresponding quarter, and INR 1,597 crore in the previous quarter.
And if you look at the PAT, it has been INR 738 crore in this Q4, as against, INR 614 crore in the corresponding quarter, and INR 1,191 crore in the previous quarter. But, if you look at the previous quarter, there was, Use-or- Pay charges of entire year of INR 610 crore, so it looks... But if you remove that, then it will be, it will be around that only, which is, the performance right now. And overall, profitability for the year, PBT has been, INR 4,757 crore , as against, INR 4,335 crore in the previous year.
Similarly, if you look at PAT, it has been INR 3,536 crore, as against INR 3,240 crore in the previous financial year. So it has been the highest ever. Highlight is that the highest ever PBT and PAT in the financial year 2023, 2024, which is INR 4,757 crore and INR 3,536 crore respectively. Another good thing is that there has been growth in volume of 22%. If you look at the throughput in Q4, it has been highest ever in Q4, 234 TBTU. Growth in volume and throughput in Q4 over corresponding quarter is 26%. Highest ever PBT of Q4, achieved in Q4 of INR 996 crore.
Growth in PBT and PAT in the current quarter has been to the extent of 22% and 20% respectively, as compared to the corresponding quarter. This has been possible because of the lower LNG prices, and efficiency, and optimization in our operation. The board of directors has declared a final dividend of INR 3 per share, and the board meeting held yesterday. That's all from my side, and house is now open for the questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handset while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.... The first question is from the line of Probal Sen from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. I have a couple of questions. Firstly, in terms of the capacity expansion that is ongoing at Dahej, and then the new terminal that we are looking at, at Gopalpur, can we get a sense of what will be the effective available capacity over FY 2025 and FY 2026? If you can give us a sense, at Dahej in particular.
Yeah. In fact, we are already going for the expansion in Dahej, and the work is under progress, and by March 2025, we should be able to complete this 5 MTPA additional capacity in Dahej. So our capacity of, existing capacity of 17.5 MTPA will increase to 22.5 MTPA by March 2025. So you can say literally it will be, 2025, 2026, it should be available for, usage, and the next year you can say, say, effectively it will be, used. So this is about the Dahej. And as far as the other terminal you're talking about, Gopalpur-
Yeah.
That terminal will take around 3 years, because right now it's in the initial stage, and we have in fact doing all those due diligence and other things. We have signed the agreement with Gopalpur Ports Limited, but only thing, there will be construction of jetty and other infrastructure over there. So initially it is planned to have FSRU terminal, but it may be because FSRU availability is an issue in the international market, so it may be possible that we may go for land-based terminal in Gopalpur also. Existing capacity of Gopalpur was capped at 4 MTPA, in case it is FSRU terminal, but if it goes, if we go for this land-based terminal, then it will be around 5 MTPA capacity.
But it will take around three years' time, so it will not be available in the year 2025, 2026. That's very obvious. And of course, after three years, we can say that it should be available.
All right. Also, just to follow up a little bit, in terms of the 22.5 million tons. So basically today we are effectively at 17.5 million tons. Have we signed all the offtake arrangements, given how near now the completion is of this additional capacity? Are all the offtake arrangements in place, or are we looking to still probably leverage the spot market for this additional volume, at least in the initial three years?
We are trying to make efforts that we should have some capacity booked out of 5 MTPA, and if the entire capacity is booked, that's good. We are following up with the customers, and if it will be possible, we will let you know. But right now nothing can be disclosed, because nothing has been materialized. But in future it is possible that some capacity may be booked. But if you see the market, it's very optimistic, and we hope that this capacity can be utilized in the market, seeing the growth of volume in gas usage after this prices coming down. And now, if you look at the data of PPAC of the last year, there has been a total consumption of around 188 MMSCMD, and almost 48% of that was basically LNG.
This share will further increase in future because right now, if you look at the price of LNG, it is almost equivalent to the HP-HT gas available in the market. Or maybe some $1 or $2 higher. So it's not very, not much difference is there.
Mm-hmm.
- in, spot LNG price and, domestic gas market price. So-
Yeah.
I think there is an ample scope for usage of terminal in future, because the growth of gas consumption will drive further usage of our Dahej terminal. If capacity is booked, then we will let you know.
Got it. So lastly, just a couple of housekeeping questions. Can we get the number as we do every quarter, of the regas service revenue and the Ind AS impact on the numbers on depreciation, interest and other income? Thank you.
Debabrata will inform you.
Regas revenue. The regas revenue was INR 670 crore.
Okay.
What was your next question?
Sir, the Ind AS impact that you typically give.
Ind AS impact. The Ind AS impact is, on the positive side, there is impact-
Impact,
You are not very audible, I'm sorry. If you can get closer to the mic.
INR 160 crore. Is it audible?
Yes, sir. Now you are audible. Thank you.
Gross margin positive, INR 160 crore, gross margin level, and Forex loss, INR 3 crore. And, at other expenses level, positive is INR 8 crore, and, depreciation, INR 82 crore, and, finance charges, INR 58 crore.
58 or 68, sir?
Fifty-eight.
68. All right. Thank you very much, sir. I'll come back. Thank you so much for the detail though.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all participants in the conference, please limit your questions to two per participant. The next question is from the line of Vikas Singh from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for taking my questions. This is mainly linked to this provisioning that we are doing, and for the benefit of all of us, if we can clarify how this is currently working. Firstly-
... If you can correct my numbers if I'm wrong, there's about INR 307, you know, INR 378, INR 379 crore of Use-or- Pay that you've booked in 2021, about INR 844 crore in 2022, and about INR 610 crore in 2023. Now, how exactly on a quarter-by-quarter basis would provisioning really work for this in terms of the provision that you're making?
Yeah. So if you look at, this number is correct, first of all, I will confirm, Vikas. And, next question is, that provisioning you are asking. So we have made, provision of almost 20% after, end of one year in case of Use-or- Pay charges. So for 2021, whatever was due, provisioning was made to the extent of 20% last year. This was to the extent of almost INR 90 crore. Because at that time it was higher figure, so we have made provision of 20%. Around this INR 90 crore it has been made. This year we are making INR 260 crore, INR 264 crore of provision. So total provision will, work out to INR 354 crore till date.
Okay.
So basically, 2022 also is there, INR 844 crore. So 20% of that also has been provided. So INR 100 crore provision of last year, means 2021, Use-or- Pay charge, and INR 169 crore of 2022 Use-or- Pay charge. This becomes almost 269, and there is some reversal of INR 4 crore-INR 5 crore, then it comes to INR 264 crore. And last year's provision was INR 90 crore. The total becomes INR 354 crore.
Okay. No, and so going ahead, Vikasji, if we look at it, so first year is, from my understanding, first year is 20%, second year is 30%, and last year is 50%.
Mm-hmm.
So in that case, for 2022, every quarter, we will be making now a provision of 12.5%. Sorry, 2021, 12.5%, and 7.5% for 2022, for the next three quarters, and in the Q4 , there will be the 20% provision for 2023. Is that roughly how it will work?
Yeah, you are correct, because what we have done now this year, that for the current year, for nine months period, we had made provision in December quarter of INR 227 crore. And balance thirty-seven crore provision we have made in this last quarter, Q4. So you are correct what you are saying, that this is how it has been done, worked out, that this is the year where we have to provide 30%. So seven and a half percent per quarter is fine, number is fine that. And for the current year, which we have made, out of this current 2022, it has been almost five percent. So you can say that for the calendar year 2022, per quarter is 5%, and for 2021, it is 7.5%.
Okay. Sorry, sir, for 2022 calendar year, now from 2021 to 2025, we will be making 7.5, but for 2021, 12.5% will be made every quarter, right? Because that, this is the last year, so all of 50%.
Right. Absolutely correct.
So if I look at that, roughly what I get on to is about INR 111 crore kind of a provision every quarter from here, from Q1, Q2, Q3. And in Q4, because you get an extra 20% of the 2023 provision, that's another INR 122 crore. So Q4 will be about INR 230 crore. So all in all, about INR 560 crore of provision will be made, you know, divided like that over the year, roughly. Is that, is that roughly, doesn't... I mean, in the ballpark?
No, no, I'm just correcting you right now. First of all, 2021 provision, which we have made, this 24th December is the last year. Up to December, if people are, customers are not able to bring the cargo, additional, to the extent they have defaulted in '21, then we will either get the payment from them-
Yeah.
- or we will encash the bank guarantee, which we have already taken.
Got it.
To the extent of INR 379 crore, we have bank guarantee with us, and they are supposed to bring additional cargo, otherwise we shall encash it. First thing is clear. Second one is we have-
One thing of this is 379, 50% of provisioning is pending, right? So that will be done over the next 3 months.
It will be done, the last quarter will be there, where settlement has to be done.
Correct, where the settlement happens, where it can happen through balance sheet or through interest.
You can say 2Q, we have to make a provision. Q1 is INR 1,400- INR 2,000, INR 3.3, kind of, so yeah.
Yeah. Okay.
So it will be, Q3 will be the settlement quarter. The two quarter, of course, we may have to make.
Sure.
In Q3 , there is no need to make a provision if we encash the bank guarantee for the
Sure.
Because by thirty-first December, it will be known whether they are bringing or not.
Sure, sure, sure.
So we will be-
If they bring the cargo, then it will be normal. Correct. If they bring all of the cargo, then it will be normal provision.
It will not be there. So this is how. And provision, as you know, that whatever provision we have made... It will be reversed because, then we will have the revenue impacted.
Yeah, I mean, you will have, you'll have matching revenue, a little bit higher revenue, so there will be-
Higher because of escalation of 5%.
Correct. And since we are on it, the corresponding numbers for this provision work out to be almost, you know, like, for example, 69 TBTU is what is the possible shortfall for 2021. So may I ask how much of this has already been used from this adjustment in the, in this quarter and the last quarter?
Yeah, we cannot discuss all these issues, but at the end of this year, this particular calendar year, we will definitely inform you what is the final result. It is too early to say anything on this issue.
Okay. But-
It's not appropriate.
Overall, three years, there is about 6.6 million tons of cargoes which has to be adjusted for the three years that... Is that number roughly okay—all right, broadly?
We have not worked out, but I will definitely work out. Just a minute. I'm just giving the answer because we have worked out in terms of values. So, 3.5 million ton.
And-
This is the-
That we have included 23 calendar.
2023 is not entitled, because 2023 we have not made any scheme, or we have not arrived any arrangement.
Okay.
Without that, it will, it will be less because INR 610 crore is for the current last year, 2023.
Understood.
There is no scheme for bringing the cargoes for INR 610 crore. It means that has to be recovered without any extension of the period for bringing cargoes.
So only-
It's only for 2021 and 2022 calendar year that we have made a scheme and arrived an arrangement. It's a one-time arrangement we have made.
Okay. So for 2023, they have not been given extra two years or anything?
No, no, no, it's not.
You got bank guarantees for 2023?
No bank guarantee. We are asking them to make the payment themselves.
Okay. Okay. Understood.
bank guarantee.
Right now, that is not something which is under discussion, but yeah. Understood.
Yes.
Yeah.
The CapEx for the land-based terminal, has that gone up?
Sorry to interrupt.
Okay, sorry. Last one. Just, just this one, just the number. Has the CapEx for the land-based terminal gone up and-
We have not estimated the number, but, normally a greenfield LNG terminal of 5 MTPA, it costs around INR 5,500 crore.
Okay.
So we have not seen that number because that decision is, is yet to be taken. So we will work it out, then we'll let you know. But normally, in case of greenfield, LNG terminal of 5 MTPA capacity, it's INR 5,500 crore around.
Thank you, Mishra sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Thank you, Vikas.
Thank you. A gentle reminder to all participants, that please limit your questions to two per participant, as there are several participants waiting for their turn. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Varatharajan from Antique Stock Broking Limited. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions on the petrochem side, have you placed any orders for long-lead items? And any kind of updates you can update us on?
Long lead items, right now, we are not aware because the consultant is there, EIL, they are making all the arrangements, but it is in the process. I cannot say that it has been ordered.
Okay. And so no, no financial commitment as yet from, our side around the project, so far?
No, there is a financial commitment because we have already appointed the licensor-
Okay.
He is working on it, because he has to give the packages, and EPCM and EPC packages he is giving, because thereafter we will work on this. But we have appointed licensor for both the propane and PP, PDH and PP, so they are on the job. So we have to finalize it and then go ahead with the project.
Sure. On the offtake arrangement, what is the timeframe for us to tie in the offtake arrangement for the renewed cash? I mean, it supposed to be in the next one year, or we can still wait till 2026 to be back?
Which we are talking offtake arrangement for?
Offtake arrangement for the existing volumes, because they are expiring again, like, you know, along with the Qatar contract. So offtake, again, like, you know, those take-up commitments, you will be entering into an arrangement with all the offtakers.
Yeah, yeah, it will be there. It will be there for the contract we have entered with QatarEnergy after 2028.
Yeah. This arrangement with the offtakers, like, you know, again, you have to renegotiate the terms, or is it an automatic renewal of it?
It will be there. We are working out, but we cannot discuss all those issues. When it will be done, we will let you know.
Sure.
Because it is being discussed in detail and it's in the process. Very soon we shall be entering into GSPA, gas sales purchase agreement with the offtakers.
There is nothing like a timeframe.
We have committed it.
Sure. Any kind of a timeframe for this?
Timeframe I cannot tell you, but I have told you this will be done as early as possible.
Very well, sir. Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sabri Hazarika from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon. So I have two questions.
Yeah.
Firstly, with respect to the current utilization of the Dahej terminal and Kochi terminal, and what is the volume expectation for FY 2025 in particular? The fact that yesterday in one media report, I think, the MD has stated that this year, the LNG demand could be like close to 27 million tons, so versus say, 22 million ton last year.
Yeah.
So any comment on that?
Yes, yes. The utilization level, I will just again tell you that, it is around 97% this quarter, Q4.
Currently, what would be the utilization?
Currently, it is around this figure only. So, it is even, it may be more than that. It is, it is more than that, but we cannot discuss that number. But, it is there, not less than this, that much I can say. Kochi, it has been 22%. It is also almost in the same range as of now, but, we need to know.
But, FY 2025, any guidance you would want to give?
Guidance, what our PPAC has already declared that it will be, there is a likely import of 27 million tons in the next year, 2025-2026, 2024-2025. So it is likely because now prices have come down, and as we know, that Indian market is basically price-sensitive market. So as and when the prices are lower, people tend to consume more energy. And moreover, this season is also very hot, and now the power demand has substantially increased. And even the advisory has come from MoPNG and power ministry that more and more power has to be produced from gas. So now it is running high, and much more gas is being used than otherwise it is used in India. So these are the factors which are driving growth of LNG volumes in the current year. So basically-
So you expect a 20% sort of like LNG demand growth in FY 2025, YOY?
Yes, yes, we expect it, because we, if you look at last month's number, which has now been published by PPAC, it has been almost 200 MMSCMD total, and out of that, more than 50% is LNG.
Okay. April, you are talking about, right? Okay.
Yeah. April, I'm talking.
Okay, sir.
Yeah.
Right. Thank you so much, and just one second question on relating to your balance sheet. So, this other financial assets in the long term, that seems to have gone up significantly. So is there any adjustment with respect to, like, short-term investments or something of that sort? Because it used to be, like, INR 270 crore
What is the number you have just other coming?
From INR 95 crore, it went to, like, almost like, INR 1,700 crore, kind of 700.
This is nothing. It's all FDs, actually.
FDs.
Because we go mutual fund, FD, whatever is our investment policies, decided, and accordingly, we are making investments. So whichever is giving the higher return, it's FD, which is basically more than twelve months.
Okay. So that's why it's classified as long-term assets-
Yeah, yeah.
But basically the cash on hand.
Because it is for more than 12 months, we are getting a higher rate of interest, we do it for 12 months.
Oh, okay. Okay, sir.
That's why.
Thank you. Got it, sir. Thank you so much, and all the best. Yeah.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Just on CapEx, could you just spell out the planned spend for FY 2025 and FY 2026?
Yeah, I can just tell you that, as you know, that, we have a aggressive CapEx plan in 2025/2026, 2024/2025. And, although, we have done less CapEx last time, but this time we expect that more CapEx will be there. But some of the CapEx item, I can tell you that, that may happen in this year. One of them is, as you know, the tank is almost complete. It will be commissioned maybe next month. The two tanks which we have constructed at a CapEx of almost INR 12.46 crore have been commissioned. So will not be much CapEx this year because it has been commissioned. And the other items which are going on are the third expansion of INR 570 crore, or 5 MTPA. So that is going on. Next year, by March, it will be complete.
So some CapEx may be there, from that also. And other CapEx items are there. We have very aggressive plans. But only thing is detailing. So we have aggressive CapEx plan, but let us see how much we are able to do, if we can. But we have jetty of INR 1,700 crore planned, but it will not be entirely spent in one year. It will take three years. We can divide it by three. And another project, Gopalpur, which is coming up, it's INR 3,300 crore, but as you know, that it will also take two, three years, so we can break it into three. So approximately and Petchem project is there, which may have a higher CapEx this year.
We plan to have aggressive CapEx, but right now, I cannot tell you exact how much it will happen, but we have planned heavy CapEx.
When will the outlay on Petchem actually start? Will it start in this quarter again, or maybe second half of the year?
... Pardon me, can you repeat?
Actual spends on the Petchem project, when will it start, when will you start spending money on that project?
It may start this year, means current year, but it may not be too high, but it will start, because we have already appointed licensor, so some payment maybe may have to be released to licensor also. So, and other items may come up, when they are awarded. But otherwise, unless until jobs are awarded or the material has been ordered, there'll not be CapEx, because right now it is still we are in the stage when we are making all EPC packages and EPCM packages, so for the execution of the project. So all these things are to be seen, but as of now, what will be the total expenditure?
This is very difficult to tell, but maybe after two, three quarters, we'll be able to tell you, Q2 after, right, what is the way forward for the CapEx.
Sure. And who is the licensor who's been selected for the project?
This is all not something, it's an international licensor. Very few licensor are there. One of them has been selected, but two licensors have been selected. So these are all US-based, UK-based, Europe-based licensors. But in name, I can tell you two, three are there. One is UOP is there, one of them is Lummus. So these are the licensors. So out of two, three technologies are only available for PP and PDH. So these are the licensors who are available across the globe. So out of these, we have appointed, and they are working on it.
Got it. Also, I, I just wanted to confirm that, the 5% annual escalation on Kochi, has it been taken from first April?
Yes, yes, it has been taken.
Okay. Okay. And I remember in the last couple of concalls, you had mentioned that the lease accounting impact will start reversing from FY 2025.
Yeah, it has already started. If you, we have already told the lease accounting impact of the quarter, once it adds up, you will see that, this time around, it is a nil impact, even after a small Forex loss.
Okay, got it. Sure, that's all. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yogesh Patil from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my question, sir. So my question is related to competition from new LNG terminals, like Chhara and Dabhol breakwater completion. So in the recent HPCL concall, the management has indicated that the Chhara terminal will be operational in the second half of FY 2025, and they will also have the same regas tariff, largely in line with Dahej. So do you expect any kind of a competition from these new terminals?
No, I don't expect any competition, because we cannot match the geographies of these two terminals. It is not possible for any customer to ship their usage base from Dahej to Chhara or anywhere. So there are lot of issues in gas supply, because connectivity is one of the major issues which has to be addressed. And our Dahej terminal is very well connected. Almost 5 pipelines are there, which are connected to Dahej terminal. So evacuation capacity is so high that nobody can match it. And moreover, nowadays, different concept has arrived that Unified Tariff has been notified by PNGRB. So if any demand center is close to the source of the gas, then it will be charged very less tariff, and if it is within 300 kilometers, it's only up to INR 40 per MMBTU.
At 300-1200 kilometers, it is INR 79, and if more than 1200, it's almost INR 114. So looking at that thing also, I think, whichever terminal is located near the demand center, that will be, I think, used for this purpose, for supply of gas. And moreover, there is no competition. We are a leader in this market, and we will remain, because nobody can match our capabilities in evacuation of the gas because of the connectivity of the four pipeline, five pipelines. And, though we are not saying they will not be used, they will also be used. They will use the terminal, but, they cannot match it. And it's not like that, that some volume which is coming to Dahej will go to Chhara now onward. There's nothing like that.
Some additional volume may come up for them, which will go there, but our capacities are booked, our customers are there. So if you look at our consumption level, it has been 97% Dahej usage is there last year. So it is continuing. So I think there is no challenge from that. But additional, because consumption is increasing day by day, as we have said, that overall kitty is increasing, so they will also have some, some share in the additional kitty, which will be added to the LNG import. So I think that is the only thing. Otherwise, we have our capacity booked, and we have a high utilization level, that will remain. And Dabhol, as you have said, they are... I think they have not constructed this breakwater, but they will be nearing the completion.
So, right now, because of monsoon, I think, it has already been closed. So maybe after October it will be started. And, as you are saying, breakwater, breakwater is not enough, because even if they construct breakwater, they cannot utilize the Dahej terminal fully. They will need some air heaters and other changes in the plant, then only they can use it to the higher capacity.
Okay. Then the second question, during the quarter Q4, you booked the inventory losses of close to INR 107 crore.
Yes.
Can you throw light on this? How much was the volume on which you have booked the losses? Some details about that.
We normally, this kind of thing we don't tell. We have told you that there is a loss, so I think this should be good enough. You can, we should be satisfied with the number, because detailing is, again, we have to, we cannot discuss all those things in the market, okay, how much is inventory and how much loss is good. But total, this is the loss which we have booked.
Okay. And was it on spot volume, spot LNG volume?
It was actually for inventory. Inventory-
Non-committed inventory.
Non-committed inventory is there, so that is that.
Okay, thanks. Thanks a lot, sir. Best of luck.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kirtan Mehta from BOB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. We have discussed about sort of a 5 MMTPA demand increase during FY 2025. But with our Dahej terminal already operating at 97% utilization, and little demand in the south, which is already again sort of reached 22% level, how much of this we can practically capture during FY 2025?
As I said, expansion will be coming up only in the March 2025, so maybe it will be available for next year, 2025, 2025.
Only thing is, as you know, historically, we have been able to operate our plant at more than 100% capacity.
Mm-hmm.
We do expect that, majority of this incremental volume will land in Dahej.
Mm-hmm.
But inherently, we, if we take 110%, then we have another 2 million tons of capacity available. And last year also, there was some spare capacity available. So in total, I think, majority of at least 4-5 million tons monthly volumes will land in Dahej.
It will be increasing only. Volume will increase substantially, once capacity is available. But as I told you, financial year 2024, 2025, it will not be available too much. It will come only in the month of March. So, practically, it will not be available for financial year 2024, 2025. But we have capacity of 17.5 per million ton. This can be utilized to the extent of 110% of the capacity. So we can actually utilize our 17.5 to almost 19.5 million ton, even more than that.
Understood. In terms of... Usually, we used to see the shift of some of the volumes when the whole goes down during the monsoon months. So is that also possibility exist this month?
Yes, yes, that exists now. And, right now, power demand has substantially gone up. So now, more cargoes, whatever it is coming, mostly it will coming to Dahej, because as you know that Dabhol will not be able to take the additional cargoes now. So that is true, and it will increase, and volume certainly will be higher in this, April to June quarter and, July to September quarter.
But again, limitation is basically the capacity, 1-2 million tons will be-
Now, you have rightly questioned now. I will—it will be difficult to how we will accommodate the cargo. That's why 5 MTPA expansion is very much required, because this is a game of opportunity. When there is an opportunity, we should utilize the entire capacity. But right now, we don't have. Had we had that 5 million ton now, we would have been ready for additional volume to any extent. But right now, whatever is available within the framework of 17.5 MMTPA, so +10% can be added. That much volume we can process, yes.
Sure. And you were also referring to the unified tariff-
Sorry to interrupt.
and our advantage.
Sorry to interrupt.
Just a follow-up question on the Dahej, basically. So we were referring to the, basically, the Unified Tariff and advantage for the customers within Zone One, where transportation tariff would be lower. Would you be able to indicate how much percentage of the existing volume lends to the consumers within Zone One?
We are very much external there. Yes. I am just telling you that this is the philosophy going on, that whatever terminal, whichever terminal is near to the demand center, that will be utilized because there will be lower tariff. So what I am saying, that if any terminal is located at Dhamra, nobody from North India will take gas from Dhamra, because then tariff will be of Zone Three. I am saying whichever terminal is the nearest one, it will be utilized. So this was just as a principle I was telling that this is the normal practice which will be followed because of the Unified Tariff.
But is it possible to break down our volumes into Zone One, Zone Two, Zone Three, just to get some sense?
Actually, we are not transporting gas. It is GAIL. Better you ask this question from GAIL, how much volume is being given in Zone One, how much in Zone Two and Zone Three. So, we cannot exactly tell these numbers, because we are selling gas external to these, customers, GAIL, IOCL, BPCL. So they will be, able to tell you better than we, than us.
Fine, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Somaiah Valliyodia from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity, sir. So first question is, this 5 MT capacity that's coming in March 2025, what will be the ramp-up time that we expect? Or, in short, in the FY 2026, how much of this is something that we can utilize? That's one. Second, Kochi, Bengaluru pipeline, what is the timeline that, you know, at this point we are looking at? Until then, where do we see utilization ramp for Kochi terminal?
Yeah. So first question is with capacity availability in March 2025, how it will be utilized, how much... But I cannot ramp up will be there, of course, 2-3 months of stabilization time is always there. But after that, we can utilize this capacity. But again, this all will depend upon the capacity booking, if at all that is done till that time, and also, the more volume which is coming, because we have hoped that more volume will come, as we have already mentioned, that all 27 million ton volume will be coming next year, this year. So I think, kitty will be to our terminal also. So if that volume continues and with the growth of 10%-15%, that strategically our 5 MTPA will be utilized to a great extent.
Moreover, I just tell you that utilization of the terminal, other terminal, is very minuscule. Some terminals are operating at 25%, 20%, 30%. So ours is a terminal which is utilized maximum. So, whatever be the capacity, utilization level of our terminal will be higher, and once the capacities are also booked, then this will further add to our volume, consistently over a period of time. But right now, it is very difficult to just give a forecast that how much will be the volume process during that, but it will be available, then only it will be processed. Because unless and until infrastructure is laid, we cannot expect to utilize it.
So we have to keep it ready, and then we have to see that volumes are coming there or not, and also simultaneously, if possible, book the capacity, whatever extent possible.
The other question was on Kochi, Bengaluru.
So Kochi-Bengaluru pipeline is of course, as you know, that this Kochi-Bengaluru pipeline, only 250 kilometer stretch was remaining, and, it is from Coimbatore to Krishnagiri, up to 50 kilometers. So that part is also under construction, and as it is understood that this was to be completed by this year end. And it has also come under, the strategy of, PMO, so it is being monitored at, PMO also, that how is the progress of this pipeline. So we hope that it should be completed by this year end. If not possible, then maybe, next year by March 2025, it should come. So this is the expectation, but work is going on, and, let us see what happens at that point of time.
Utilization, of course, if that is connected, will be very high, because as you know that then Kochi will be connected to the natural gas grid. Once the terminal is connected to natural gas grid, then, we can swap the gas and use it anywhere. So in the gas case, we can use, let's say, some city gas distribution companies are coming in that area. And domestic gas availability in southern India and near Kochi is very poor or negligible. So naturally, through swapping arrangement, gas can be supplied to those CGD customers there, and once it is connected to natural gas grid. And that will, ramp up the, utilization level of our Kochi terminal. And moreover, there's a good news that more and more gas is being used through tankers.
This is something which is really encouraging, because if you look at the loading of the customers through tankers to this terminal of Kochi, last year we have loaded around 2,230 tankers, and one tanker have around 17 MT of gas. So there is a scope for usage of gas through tankers also, because pipeline is not everywhere. So in southern India, we are having a possibility that many of the cases, gas will be supplied through tankers. So last year, it was only 1,500 tankers were loaded. This year it is 2,200. So almost 50% hike is there in the loading of energy tankers in that area.
So this is one more of enhancing the consumption, and we hope that after city gas distribution companies will lay the network there, they will utilize it, because it can be swapped with domestic gas also. And this swapping arrangement can be made, and then it can be supplied to these CGD entities.
Thank you, sir. One question on the cash balance. So this continues to build, so including the investments that you are operating, you are almost close to INR 9,000 crore. So we think this kind of, I mean, also we'll be adding good amount of free cash flows. So do you think we need this kind of a, you know, cash position to fund the CapEx program, or, or we think about a, you know, higher payout off?
... No, we are actually expecting that there will be CapEx, and that's why we have been keeping it. Moreover, the cash balance we are seeing, INR 9,000 crore, is on the higher side, because it is on last date of the quarter, 31 March. But in fact, there has been a liability also of INR 2,600 crore. So we have to pay that. So around average cash is around INR 7,000 crore. It's not INR 9,000 crore, average. Because that is the amount we have to pay to the suppliers. So that's why it is only on that date, it is shown that it is higher, but normally average cash is INR 7,000 crore.
But as far as the project is concerned, we have a petrochemical project, for which we have to fund in 70/30 ratio of equity 30%, so almost INR 6,000 crore maybe that we may have to spend through cash, and balance we will be getting it from the debt, from the lenders. And perhaps that is the ratio we have to maintain, and we are keeping the cash with, with us for the CapEx plan only.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ramesh Sankaranarayanan from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.
Hello, can you hear me?
Yes, yes, yes, we can hear you.
Yeah. Thank you very much for the call, sir. Just a clarification on the Use-or-Pay receivable and the provision you are making. So whatever you made so far, you adjusted for the INR 610 crore out of the receivable. It's about 25%, right? That's on the INR 1,200 crore of receivable. So on the balance which you have not provided for, can you rule that you have high confidence of either adjusting it to the bank guarantee, or it will be made up by the customers giving you extra volumes in future. Is that a fair understanding?
Yes, yes, yes. But the only thing, yeah, you complete your question, then I will tell you.
Yeah. So that's on the UOP provision. Second thing is, if you're looking at the question on competition, you are planning this Gopalpur terminal, and Dhamra terminal is already up and running, and they have reached on the capacity booking. So in terms of your own assessment, once Dhamra is, you know, fully booked, how do you see the time to ramp up your Gopalpur terminal, whether it's FSRU or the land-based? What is your sense in terms of the future demand outlook, and what kind of confidence you have in terms of going ahead with that part, even with Dhamra is fairly close by?
No, it's all right. But, only thing, first question is regarding Use-or-Pay charges you are asking?
Yeah.
So I will tell you that total Use-or-Pay charges we have put for the calendar year 2021 was INR 379 crore, and for the calendar year 2022, it was INR 844 crore. And these two years together make it to INR 1,222 crore, out of which we have already made provision of INR 354 crore. So this is the total provision to date we have made out of it. And the INR 610 crore, which have been in fact booked as Use-or-Pay charges in current financial year 2023-2024, there is no such arrangement for that that we have to book some 20%, 50% of provision. But after one year, if they don't pay, then we have to make the provision.
But, we are not making any arrangement right now. We are expecting that this particular amount shall be paid by the customer, and possibly there will not be requirement of any extension of the time period for the utilization, for bringing more cargos, like we have done for 2021, 2022. Because that was a standalone arrangement for these two years only. And that too, due to this, COVID period, it has been 2021, and 2022 has been the Russia-Ukraine war, which has impacted the incoming cargos, being the prices were abnormally high. So that was the reason we have considered those things. But 2023, we have not done anything so far, so we expect that INR 610 crore will be recovered. So this is regarding-
... Sir, the second one, on the, I understand the numbers. So you have made some provision on the INR 1,200 crore, so the balance is still left open as receivable. So I'm just trying to understand if, you know, what is the kind of confidence you have in terms of recovering the balance around, you know, which is not provided for, INR 900 crore?
No, no, it will be recovered because we have received the bank guarantee for this INR 379 crore and INR 844 crore. And they have been given time till December 2024 to bring additional cargos equivalent to the volume, volume they have defaulted in 2021 calendar year. If they don't bring by December 2024 for the volume defaulted in 2021 calendar year, then we, either they will make the payment for that Use-or-Pay charges of INR 379 crore, or we shall encash the bank guarantee. So first thing is clear. Second is 2022 calendar year of Use-or-Pay charges of INR 844 crore. For that also, we have received the bank guarantee. If they bring volume till December 2025, it's fine.
If they don't bring, they will have to pay the payment, make the payment, and we—otherwise we shall encash the bank guarantee. So our user charges for calendar year 2021 and 2022 of INR 1,222 crore is secured against the bank guarantee. So there is a surety of the payment being received. Okay? And for this year, which has been booked in 2023 calendar year, INR 610 crore, there is no arrangement. We still are pursuing the customer that they should make the payment. So entire INR 1,222 crore is secured. This is what we, I want to convey to all of you, that there is no risk as such that we will have to make a provision, and then it will not be paid.
Because we have bank guarantee, and still we are making provision, as a means accounting prudence.
On the question on the Gopalpur terminal competition from Dhamra?
Yeah. Second question is regarding Gopalpur terminal. So this is, I would like to tell you that the consumption of gas is increasing in the country, and if you know that, this eastern part of India is, was not having any pipeline connectivity, but now out of this pipeline, Jagdishpur-Haldia-Bokaro-Dhamra pipeline coming up, our terminal, Gopalpur terminal, is located hardly 40 kilometers away from this pipeline. So there is a possibility that we will be able to utilize, and we will try to get the capacity booked in Gopalpur terminal, as we have done in Dahej. For that also, we are making effort with the customers. And as you are saying that, what is the prospects?
So once we lay the infrastructure, we see, make a due diligence, what are the industry and mining industries there, and lot of dumper, tippers and cranes are used in such mines. So there is a possibility of LNG being used as transport fuel in that particular region. And also other industries are there, which is coming up, so it will be utilized. And more, one more thing is there, that, if you look at, say, if a customer is located in Dhamra region or in this, Gopalpur region, then it will not be prudent to take gas from, Dahej or from Dabhol to that particular area of Gopalpur, because then the tariff charge will be of Zone Three, of INR 114.
So even for the other supplier of gas, like GAIL, IOCL, whosoever is there, it will be prudent to use gas from Gopalpur terminal, because that will fall in Zone One, and tariff will be hardly INR 40 per MMBtu. So through swapping arrangement, that terminal can be used. So whatever gas they are having, suppose GAIL has some gas in Dahej terminal, they can take it from Gopalpur and give that gas back to us, and that gas will be supplied from Gopalpur to customer of GAIL or any IOCL or BPCL. So that swapping arrangement will also help us in further utilization of Gopalpur terminal. So that's what I'm saying. It's not only us that we have to sell the gas to book the capacity. Capacity, of course, will be booked to the extent possible.
But then they will have the comfort, customers, consumers will have the comfort that at least they will be charged Zone One tariff if it is supplied from Gopalpur. So what I am saying, that I'm not commenting on Dhamra capacity booking. Of course, we have booked capacity, but we have ample capacity there, because a lot of CGD entities are coming up in that area. Of course, in three, four years, they should be ready. So I think that one area will also have some, it will also drive us for more consumption of gas in that region. So, and moreover, LNG, as I said, the LNG can be used as transport fuel in that region, even for the mining equipment and machinery and transport vehicles.
So I think that is the thing we are keeping in mind. And it's always, so when something new is done, it is always apprehended that how it will run. When Dahej terminal was first time, in fact, established in 2004, then also a lot of apprehension was there, how terminal will run. But everything runs, because now the Government of India policy is very clear. They have to increase the share of natural gas from 6% to 15%. And 6% to 15% means that fourfold increase has to be done from the current level of consumption of gas. And that is not possible. That is possible only if we increase the volume of imported gas, because domestic gas availability is not available to that extent.
So all these things run on these things that we have anticipation, and more and more customers will be coming in that region. So it's not that Dhamra will not run, Dhamra will also run, and we will also run. So I don't see any apprehension in proper utilization of the Gopalpur terminal. It will be utilized. But we are making effort with our customer for booking the capacity also in Gopalpur terminal.
Understood, sir. Just one last housekeeping question. Can you repeat the inventory loss and any trading gain or loss?
We have told you that this quarter we have incurred inventory loss of INR 107 crore, and trading gain in this quarter was INR 14 crore.
Okay, sir. Thank you very much, and wish you all the best.
Thank you. Thank you very much. Thanks to all of you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraint, that was the last question for today's conference call. I would like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you very much. And, in fact, I really appreciate all of you, that you have all raised very relevant questions. And of course, whatever things have been pointed out, whatever has been suggested, we always keep in mind that what is the means, impression of the investors and analysts. And of course, we do the best possible thing. As you know, that our constant effort is there, that we increase the volume throughput, and which is increasing also. And, only thing you have to have trust on us, because what we are doing, best possible thing we are doing, and which is evident from the market cap also, which has increased substantially. And, just we want that you have to repose trust in us, and we'll continue to perform better in future also.
As far as the competition is concerned, I again say that there is no competition. Our terminal will continue to run even better than what it is being done now, and perhaps it will further improve in future, because overall consumption of gas is going to increase in future. Keeping all this in mind, our future is bright, and we hope to maintain our growth trajectory in future also. This is my perception, that we'll perform better in future than what we have done this far, this time now. Thank you very much.
On behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited, that concludes the conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.