Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Petronet LNG Limited Q1 FY 2022 earnings conference call, hosted by Elara Securities Private Limited. As a reminder, all participants will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star one two zeros on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Gagan Dixit from Elara Securities Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Yes, thank you. Very warm welcome to everyone for Petronet LNG Limited Q1 FY22 earnings call. It is our pleasure to be able to bring to you the management of Petronet LNG, represented by Mr. VK Mishra, Director, Finance, Mr. Rakesh Chhabra, DGM and President, F&A, Mr. VK Sharma, CGM and VP, Marketing, Mr. Vivek Mittal, GM, Marketing, Mr. Dev Datta Tripathi, GM, F&A, and Mr. Ashwin Agarwal, Manager, F&A. With these words, I will now hand over the conference to the Petronet LNG management. Over to you, sir.
Very good afternoon to all of you. This is VK Mishra, Director, Finance, Petronet LNG Limited. Q1, the result has been, of course, good in the sense that the pandemic again has emerged, and it has shown that it might disrupt the business. Still, we are able to at least match with the results, which have been there in the corresponding quarter, even better than that. So now, if you look at the results, our Dahej throughput have been to the extent of 194 TBTU, as against 181 TBTU in the corresponding quarter, and 204 TBTU in the previous quarter. And total throughput has been to the extent of 209 TBTU in this quarter, as against 190 TBTU in the corresponding quarter, and 218 TBTU in the previous quarter.
If you look at the throughput increase, it has been to the extent of 10% as compared to the corresponding quarter. And the result has been like this, that the total PBT has been INR 851 crore, as against INR 697 crore in the corresponding quarter, and INR 856 crore in the previous quarter. And PAT has been to the extent of INR 636 crore, as compared to INR 520 crore in the corresponding quarter, and this INR 823 crore in the previous quarter. So this has been, and the PAT and PBT has increased by 22% as compared to the corresponding quarter. So this is all from my side as far as the Q1 results are concerned of Petronet.
Now, house is open for the questions.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask any question may press star and one on your touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may please press star and two. Participants are requested to use headset while asking a question. To ask a question, you may please press star and one. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. In the interest of time and fairness to all participants, please restrict your question to two per participant. If you still have more questions, kindly join the queue afresh. We will take our first question from the line of Kunal Sharma from SMC Global Securities Limited. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good afternoon. Thank you for the opportunity. I have a couple of questions. So first, as you are importing the natural gas, so could you please share some, the, like, the percentage of how much percentage are we importing? And even we are also increasing the capacity into the stream. So what are the opportunities are we seeing going forward?
You are asking the percentage of import of LNG as we-
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, and the opportunity going forward. What are the opportunities are we seeing on the frame?
It, it has been to the extent of 55% as far as the import is concerned, and 45%, natural gas requirement is met through domestic production. So it has been the case in the previous year, and similar trend is going on. In future, it may increase further, but right now, this is the percentage. And as far as the prospects are concerned, I'm just ensuring it that the consumption will continuously increase, because the requirement is much more than what's happening now, and perhaps the estimate is as high as almost, it could be to 70 MMTPA -80 MMTPA by 2030. So it will gradually improve. So every year it is increasing. Last year, it was 24 MMTPA of the import. This year it has increased to almost, 37 MMTPA.
So it is increasing, but as far as the consumption growth is concerned, perhaps it will be more led by City Gas Distribution projects, which are coming up in a big way... perhaps in next five years, they will be there in place, and perhaps then it will further increase. So we find that growth is immense, and it will continue in future. There is absolutely bright future for Petronet LNG in future.
Okay, okay. The second, as we have nearly like INR 41 billion CAPEX planned from Dahej plant, and another investment, INR 120 billion crores investment in LNG retailing compressed biogas . So, which would be like a huge CAPEX as of now. So is it for the internal accruals or through debt ?
You are talking about INR 41 billion in?
CAPEX for the Dahej plant, right?
It's Dahej plant expansion, as well as this, tanks which are coming up. Total CAPEX is around INR 1,240 crores in tanks, and perhaps INR 1,700 crores in jetty, third jetty, which we are bringing. Then more and more, this expansion will be there from 17.5 MMTPA to almost 22 MMTPA, 22.5 MMTPA. So another, say, INR 1,000 crores will be there. So likewise, is the future CAPEX plan.
Okay. Okay, okay. So like, what will be the total? Can you repeat the same again? 1,200 and-
INR 1,217, INR 2,900 crores, then you can add up to that, INR 1,000 more, it will be INR 39, INR 4,000 crores roughly.
Understood. Understood. Oh.
That is a very big thing, INR 41 billion .
Sorry to interrupt. Please join back the queue.
Okay, okay. No worries. I am done now.
Thank you. A reminder to the participants to ask a question, you may please press star then one. The next question is from the line of Puneet Gulati from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. Can you dwell a bit upon what led to Q-on-Q fall in long-term gas volumes, and how do you see both long and spot in the current quarter of high LNG prices?
You are asking about Q1, long-term volume? Just repeat your question, please.
So I'm asking, in the current Q1, it was the Q-on-Q. There was a Q-on-Q drop in long-term volumes. Can you shed some light on what drove that? And secondly, what are you experiencing in terms of spot volumes in the current high price LNG market?
Yeah, if you look at the kind of quarter it has been, April and May have been marked by this pandemic. So in April, there was a little bit less consumption, but after that, lifting of this, I think, lockdown and everything, it has come up again. It has revised. And now, if you look at overall volume as compared to Q1 versus Q1, it has increased volume. But if you compare with the previous quarter, then certainly it has gone down, maybe two-three cargo or less. So that is the only impact it has been there. But had the pandemic not been there, we would have performed even better.
On the spot side?
The spot side, actually, spot rate is very high. It's at $16.45 today.
Yeah.
So at this rate, the consumption is very less in India. Perhaps that's the reason not many spot cargoes are being bought by India. And perhaps, we are hopeful that, in future it will come down, because long-term volume is now cheaper as compared to spot gas. So people are more attracted to long-term gas than spot gas. So additional volume, which used to come because of low price of LNG, that is not coming in a big way. But perhaps in future, we hope that whenever the price will come down, then certainly this will further increase. But this will not remain at this level for a long time. This is our perception and our confidence, that this will not happen for a long time. It will come down, because this is not sustainable price.
Understood. Understood. My second is on the CAPEX part. If you can comment on how much you spent in quarter one, and what is the progress on CBG and other transportation-linked plants? That's all from my side. Thank you.
CBG plant, I am telling, CAPEX, Q1 is not much because we have started the work and tank job is being awarded. So it has been tendered, and now it is in the process of being awarded. So perhaps it will come in this year, but not right now in Q1. That is not very big CAPEX has been made. But CBG plant, as you are asking, that is basically, it's still we are looking for land, and perhaps initially we'll go for four, five plants only. To see the visibility, how the availability of material is there, and whether it will be sustainable or not. So all these things are to be seen before putting up the this CBG plant. And it will not come in one go.
It will, as I'm saying, there is a lot of factors which are basically deciding whether to put up a plant at a place or not, because availability of feedstock, which is very important. Likewise, it is available in Haryana and Punjab, so we are looking forward to have some plants in Haryana and also in Punjab, because a lot of stubble burning cases are there. So perhaps that can be utilized in CBG plants. So we have to see the feasibility of feedstock also, and also the availability of a pipeline nearby, because ultimately it has to be evacuated to the pipeline, which is nearby of a local GA, whoever is owning it.
So it is like that, and only thing which is guaranteed by the government is INR 46 per kg is being assured by government that that will be bought by CBG companies or ONGC. So it's a new area, so we are also going, not in a big way, but initially we are putting up four-five plants. And if something is good and we find that this is really profitable, we'll go ahead. So it's not something which is happening in a day, all the plants will come in a day. We have to fix the feasibility at each and every place.
On the transportation fuel side, the LNG where you talked about LNG as a transportation fuel?
This is also similar because you see, our ambition is very high. But only thing, initially we'll go for five stations, we'll go another five. We are going four stations with IOC and perhaps three , four stations with another CBG company. So likewise, it, it's in a phased manner. It cannot happen in a day. You know, it's not possible because first we have to see what is the impact of first five, 10 or 20 stations, because it will be coming on a highway. We have to see the conversion of trucks and buses, whether it happens in a fashion which we want. And if it happens, then we can replicate in another highways. So it will be happening slowly. It's a single unit.
We have to see profitability of each station, and perhaps when the IRR is okay, then only we go ahead. So it's a conscious call that will be taken at appropriate time, as and when required. And as I have said, it will be in phased manner. Likewise, we are doing it in some southern India highways. So it's on a highway, it can be only, say, five, 10 stations.
Right.
Then we see the visibility, whether it is profitable or not, and thereafter only we'll commit the CAPEX. That will not be in one go, then 10, again 10, 20, 30, like that. So it cannot happen that 1,000 station we will put up in a day. 1,000 stations are enlisted by Government of India totally in the draft energy policy. So even oil marketing companies are also coming in a big way, so they will be putting up. So we have to see whether it is profitable or not. We'll not put up the plant just for the sake of putting up it. We are, have also to see the profitability out of it. If there is no IRR in any investment, we will not put up any LNG station.
So it's a very conscious call, and we have seen the model is very good. And perhaps if it happens, and if there is a conversion of vehicles into this LNG fuel trucks and buses, then certainly it will be good, but it will be in a phased manner. So we will be putting up, but I don't think it will be in a go, we will go for 100, 200. It is slowly.
Thank you very much. Thank you. This is very helpful. Quickly, if you, if I may, any update on Kochi tariff?
Kochi tariff is INR 87, exactly, INR 87.15 per MMBtu. So this is, as it was earlier, INR 83, and it has increased 5% some months of February.
So, no renegotiation so far?
So far there is no renegotiation, although we have already disclosed in our results that, off-takers are asking for it. But at the same time, it is still, very clear that, as and when in future its volume will be committed, then only we can, reconsider this tariff.
Okay. Understood. That's very helpful. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Probal Sen from Centrum Broking. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. So, again, probably staying n the CAPEX part. So the INR 4,000 crore, Dahej CAPEX, this is going to be spread over FY 2022, 2023, or FY-
2025, 2024, you can take it. Up to 2024, it may happen, because, maybe 2025 it may run into, but, 2024 we are planning. At least three-four years time it will be there. Because tanks order will be placed right now, but the jetty again, we have to take approval of both.
Then it will be placed, order will be placed in the next years, and then certainly three years time will be required to complete this project. Then, expansion will be in two phases. One is from 17.5 MMTPA -20 MMTPA.
So, low-hanging fruit, because not much is required, hardly INR 200 crore- INR 220 crore will be required to be spent.
Got you.
Perhaps thereafter, 20-22.5. That will be another phase. So it may again take three years time. So maybe 2025 you can consider for the entire 4,000.
Got it. And so is it possible to give an overall CAPEX guidance for 2022 and 2023, sir? Given the approval stage and the kind of environment, so including whatever little CAPEX you may do on CBG, LNG transport, as well as the Dahej expansion. Roughly, what sort of CAPEX?
You're asking for 2022, 2023 or 2021, 2022?
Both years, sir, 2022 and 2023.
See, this year it may not be high CAPEX, maybe, INR 500 crore-INR 700 crore. But next year, we hope that, once the jetty part is also awarded and tanks are also awarded, then it may, go up to INR 1,000 crore also. But this is all I think, right now, there is no order as such, and any project, once it is approved, again, it takes time.
Yes, sure.
So it will... I don't think a very high CAPEX is there. As far as LNG station is concerned, I have just taken approval of only, say, 20-24 stations from port. So slowly it is coming up. We have placed the order with one of the ONGC for purchasing five LNG dispensing stations. And we are putting out of that four with one of the ONGC in southern India. So likewise, it takes time, because once you order it, it takes six-eight months, 10 months time to get those with the charging stations. And that too, we have to see feasibility first. If it is feasible, then only we'll go. We'll have partners wherever it is possible, like we are going with the ONGC and CGD company.
Similarly, we'll see if it is really profitable at any highway, then we will only put up. But as I have already said, that oil marketing companies will be losing the business, because then ultimately it will curtail the consumption of diesel. So they will also be going aggressively in this direction. So we hope that we will be doing with them and also our own also, but it will not be in a one go. Initially, we will do, say, we have taken approval only for 2024, so maybe then we see the visibility in a year's time, two years, then we'll see further investment. It will not be in a one go that entire investment will be done, because we have to see the conversion of vehicles also.
Of course.
If it's not happening, people are not interested, we'll not invest in that.
Yeah, no, I, I got the idea. I was just trying to look for a range. Hello?
Yeah, yeah, please.
Yeah. Sorry, one more question, if I may. With respect to your volumes, as you obviously mentioned, that COVID had an impact on April, May, long-term gas volume offtake this quarter. So looking ahead for the next three quarters, even if we assume normalized run rate, getting back to that 100 and, maybe 110, TBTU, is it fair to assume that whatever loss has happened in Q1 may sort of remain in place, may not be made up completely for within the rest of the year, given the environment that you're in?
We will try to make up this loss of volume in this quarter. Perhaps second quarter should be good because it is going good and we are having good throughput in the plants. But we will try to make up all those losses. But still, if you look at the comparison of the Q1 of previous year, it is still better. But we could have done even better had this pandemic not been there. But anyway, we are still better than Q1 of the previous year. So we'll try to make up in the subsequent part of the year, to make up all the loss of volume.
Thank you, sir. I'll come back.
The only thing is the price of this LNG is a spoiler.
Yeah, for the spot, spot and diesel.
It has been at a moderate level, $67. We could have expected more spot cargoes also, which is not happening. It is an additional pity, actually, to the long-term volume.
Okay. Thank you so much for the detailed answer, sir. I'll come back if I have more questions. Thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Abdulkader Puranwala from Elara Capital. Please go ahead.
Am I audible?
Yes, you are. Please go ahead.
Okay. Two questions, sir. First is in relation to the Kochi project, sir. As you mentioned, it is related to volumes. If that's the case, I presume the fair conclusion to draw is at some stage, whenever the volumes are going to go up, let's say, you know, the current run rate is what, 1.2 million tons -1.5 million tons. At some stage, the Bangalore pipeline is coming in, let's say an additional 1 million tons comes up, then it's virtually certain that even if your plan proves right and, you know, your current negotiating position is proved right, at that stage, whenever the volumes go up, at least at that point of time, the tariff will go down.
Under no circumstances can I assume an additional 1 million ton volume at, let's say, Kochi, at the same tariff that you're charging right now?
Our marketing will apply to the price.
Of course, you're right. Once the volume goes up substantially, we may again review the tariff, but it is not likely to happen over the next one or two years at least, because one or two years whatever the volume gets projected, they will be in line with the, with the completion of Bangalore pipeline. So we don't expect any impact, except for one time impact, which we are still in discussion with. But other than that, not that, every one year or two years, based on the volume, price will be impact. Just once the project connected to Bangalore, then, of course, depending on the volume, we might do an impact on the tariff.
Perfect. So the second question was in relation to dividend. Now that basically you're saying that, you know, the CAPEX plan that you outlined in the last quarter will be far more, perhaps little more gradual, and depending upon how the viability, it may be a little more sort of paced out. Any plans to revisit your dividend payout ratio? I mean, you had cut it last year from 70%- 50%, stating the high CAPEX plan that you had outlined. Are you looking to revise the dividend payout ratio back to 70%? Is there a possibility?
Okay. I have already told that CAPEX plan in this year or next year will not be that high. And, even if we continue the existing dividend payout, it will continue to be so because, in any case, we have a lot of internal generation, and we can meet this, dividend requirement easily, even after the CAPEX, which we are proposing to do in next two years. So I think dividend policy, it is still there, that it will be there, not less than 30% of, PBT and that, and then 5% of net worth. But of course, we will try to match with the previous year dividend, this year also. So this is our endeavor that, because not much CAPEX will happen this year, so perhaps we will continue to give more dividend as we are giving in the previous year.
Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you very much. A reminder to the participant, to ask a question, you may please press star and one.... The next question is from the line of Sabri Hazarika from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon. Sir, so I have got few bookkeeping questions on the, firstly, the reclassification service income, for this quarter, how much is it?
These are the central bills.
Yeah.
Yeah. So at the gross margin level, the adjustment is +132.
Just, one second. You are talking about index part, huh?
Index part, yeah. The overall impact is INR 53 crore- at the profit before tax level.
39. It's 39.
Yeah, 39? Yes, 39.
Right.
INR 53 crore at the PBT level, negative, and INR 39 crore at tax level negative. The breakup is INR 138 crore + at gross margin level.
Okay.
INR 84 crore is the depreciation, INR 78 crore is the finance cost, INR 36 crore is the foreign loss, and another INR 8 crore + in the other expenses.
INR 38 crore. Okay. And, you said, depreciation is around INR 880 crore?
84. Depreciation is INR 84 crores, and interest is, and finance cost is INR 78 crores.
Okay. Okay, got it. Got it. And secondly, regas service income?
Regas service income is 5- Five fifty-two.
INR 552 crore.
INR 552 crore.
INR 552 crore. And Gorgon volumes in Dahej?
Gorgon volumes in Dahej is about 60 DD.
Okay, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Pinakin from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Sir, thank you very much. So my first question is, just, your views and your company's views on, if spot prices do not materially pull back from where they are, at least for the next six months or so, till the peak demand is there, is it fair to say that the spot demand for LNG in India would collapse from what we have seen in the last two- three years? And would that impact Petronet LNG more, or should that impact some of the other terminals, in the region, given, that they are more, spot dependent?
No, we will not be much impacted, but as I have already said that this is icing on the cake. The more and more volume come, then our profitability increases. That will not happen. Only thing is that for long-term volumes which are coming up is already assured. We have a book capacity to the extent of almost 16.5 MMTPA. So that is assured to the extent that whatever volumes we are importing from RasGas or from the Gorgon, apart from capacity booking, that will continue. And perhaps only thing that we could have done more, had these prices been lower, that may not come in that case. But of course it will continue. We will not be much impacted as others will be.
Understood, sir. And so my second question is, going back to the CAPEX one, you are now... You said that, next year the company expects to place more orders related to the Dahej expansion. Do you see the company placing orders next year for the projects, other than Dahej, the East Coast Terminal or the LNG, LPG stations? Would the order placement start next year on those projects as well?
See, it's like that, that project is already there, East Coast Terminal, we have planned. But so far, it has not reached the stage where we can start doing the activities. Perhaps by next year it will be more clear. We are in the process of signing the agreement, and perhaps thereafter only we'll be able to comment on this. But this year, at least, no CAPEX is likely in the East Coast Terminal. But next year, maybe, if it happens, everything materializes, and we may take up some steps for the CAPEX for that particular project. But right now, as of now, there is no plan. We are only looking forward to sign an agreement for East Coast Terminal.
We have to see that whoever is owning it, we have to sign an agreement, and thereafter only we can take a call. And we are already undergoing the process of assessment of demand assessment. We have seen it, demand is there, so perhaps by next year we'll be doing the orders for that particular terminal.
Understood. Thank you very much, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Rustagi from UBS. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Sir, good afternoon. Sir, could you just give us some industry breakup that which industries are likely to take volumes in the current environment? Obviously, we have 8.5 million in RasGas and 1.5 million ton kind of Gorgon. Over and above, what sort of volume is coming in India right now from our terminal, and which industries are the off-takers currently?
See, as far as consumption is concerned, I have already told that it is increasing at a very steady pace. Last year it was 154, then again it has risen after pandemic. So that much I can say that demand is there. Fertilizer sector especially is taking more gas. In previous year, almost 48 MMSCMD has taken, as against, 44 or 43 MMSCMD the previous year. So this sector is promising, and another sector I have already said, the city gas distribution projects will come up, then they will be taking more gas. But otherwise, power sector, has been static, it has been at the same level. And perhaps these two sectors I see promising, this, city gas and, fertilizer sector.
Okay.
The power has been one price-sensitive sector. So last year on the prices were $3, of course, it was consuming quite a lot of gas. This year, the coal-to-gas substitution is not sufficient because as you mentioned, the spot prices have come down the price. So that can be temporary thing, and in India, power demand only peaks up during summer season. So of course, this summer season, the gas-based power plant has not changed. So other than that, I think all the sectors are remaining steady state and, you know, will continue to do.
Okay, sir, even refineries are taking as much gas as they used to take?
They are taking, absolutely.
Okay, sir. Got it. Thank you, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vidyadhar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you. Good afternoon. My first question was regarding, so currently in July, August, while the pandemic has eased, spot LNG prices have gone up. So how are volumes doing? You seem to suggest that they have improved, pre-compared to the previous quarter and maybe compared to even June. And you, in this context, you did mention a number of 16.5 million tons, because your confirmed volumes are only 15.75 million tons . Is this balance some short-term contract, which is a confirmed one?
Yeah, short-term contract is there. So that is to the extent of 0.75 MMTPA. So that's why we are saying 16.5. For the two years, at least, this volume is committed, so that is there. But apart from that, what you are asking that from Q1, how it could be in Q2?
Correct, correct, correct.
Q2 has been very promising so far. Because, you know, we have long-term contracts, and people are now more interested in long-term contracts. The pricing there is very low as compared to spot gas, so it is in high demand. So almost $9 per MMBtu as compared to $16.45 for LNG. So what I'm saying that our long-term demand and this capacity is continue to be used as desired, and perhaps the two could have been to the extent of almost 100% in the month of July. Maybe 90%-95%, if you take the average, but in some other day, it is even more than 100%. So what I want to say that long-term volume is in high demand.
We are now supplying that gas, which is already committed to long-term contract, and whatever capacity is booked by other off-takers, and if they have some long-term contracts, they are also bringing their volumes to India. GAIL has got a good, good opportunity to bring U.S. volumes to India. So because that is cheaper than spot LNG as of now. So what I'm saying that this is good for us, that at least long-term volume will continue to come, and our transition will continue to be high in the second quarter.
The LNG station, we said that you take-
LNG station, I have said that it is not in one go. It's a very-
No, absolutely, I agree. So my question was that you said that you've taken board approval for 20-24-
Yeah, yeah.
LNG stations. So, is it confirmed that you'll put all of these, or these also may not, depending on viability?
We have taken approval, but we will see that whether these can be put up or not. Certainly, we are going four stations with ONGC, that is for sure, because we have placed order for five LNG distribution stations. So these will be in association with ONGC company, and maybe a few more will be there. So initially we are with CGD company or ONGC, but if opportunity is good and in future if we find that it's a good, profitable business, certainly we'll go for other areas also. But we have to see the reaction of the people, the conversion of the vehicle, whether they feel it, it should be done or not. Because we have to take a feeler, first of all. This is not an investment which will be done in a day.
We have to see highway by highway, that this highway is successful, again, second highway. So likewise, we may have some station, 10, 15, like that only. So it will not be in one go.
What is the cost per station, roughly?
Cost is around INR 8 crore-INR 10 crore.
Okay. Thanks a lot, sir. That's it from me.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh from Nirmal Bang. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you very much. The first question is, can you give us some breakup of the off-take of LNG from the Kochi terminal? You have done about 1.6 million tons or 1.5 MMTPA. Is it possible to give a breakup at the moment?
Can you repeat? We are not able to hear you properly. Repeat your question.
Hello, can you hear me now?
Yeah, yeah. Now it is clear.
Yeah. So can you give us a break-up? Because we heard that Mangalore Fertilizer has already started taking.
Yeah.
In the first quarter, whatever run rate you are doing at 15 TBTU, can you give us a breakup of Mangalore Fertilizer , MRPL, OPaL, or other customers in Kerala? Can you give us a broad breakup in terms of each customer?
This is not actually required because we have given 15 TBTU as we processed through that pipeline. And perhaps it is further increasing in future, but we have already planned it will be in the range of almost 1.5 MMSCMD. So it is like that only, and perhaps in future it may increase, but right now it is in this range only.
No, so we are trying to, you know, get a sense in terms of whether OPaL and MRPL also start, have started drawing the gas.
All three of them.
All three are taking.
MRPL, ONGC, and as per mentioned, around 1.5 MMBD , 1.6 MMBD were connected, which is likely to go up as more and more connectivity happens, as they get used to more gas. Of course, the current high price is a bit of different, but I think in the long run, the prices will also streamline and the demand and consumption will also go up.
Okay. Now, coming back to the gas demand and supply, you are saying that, you know, you are unlikely to be impacted by the spot prices going up. But how does the increase in the domestic gas supply from KG gas impact the, you know, substitution of imported gas, and thereby, you know, what is the impact on your LNG import business?
No, I have already reiterated time and again that it is a long-term contract, so it has to be there because the clauses are there, take or pay, use or pay. So we are assured of the business. Only thing is that whatever additional volume could have come through spot gas, that may not come, but otherwise our business will continue to grow like it is there.
Thank you.
I don't think there is any short in this volume of long-term gas coming to India.
And as for the domestic-
Domestic is very, very... And domestic will affect capacity to, in the short term, the spot LNG. Perhaps that may be the case, but long-term LNG is already in high demand. It is going on, and perhaps this will not be reduced. The only thing that it may impact the short term and, spot volume to some extent. But it is only short run, because it is hardly 17 MMSCMD has been the gas which has come up in the domestic sector additionally.
If you just see what DF sir has told, PLL is assured of long-term as well as the capacity agreement. Meanwhile, the other terminals, without naming them, I would say, they may get affected because they may be working on merchant kind of thing, but PLL will not be affected, number one, by domestic gas. Number two, and I think I am reiterating the same thing, demand in power sector is extremely price sensitive, and that is getting affected. Had the prices been at the last year level of $3-$4, this would have been icing on the cake and additional demand. Okay? So that demand is only affected. Otherwise, you see refinery, fertilizer, PGD, everything has bounced back. And I think conventional, I would say, better than the normal level. This will mean people are replenishing their inventory and all that. So everything has bounced back.
As such, going forward, PLL and business is going to be better and better. Am I able to, Shankar?
Yes, sir.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Varatharajan from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. So what I understand is loading bays, essentially it's not as if in any service you have four or five stations initially. There'll be others will be putting up similarly, looking at testing the waters, four, five stations in each. So how many, you know, you see coming in the next one or two years? And how many are you preparing yourself for in terms of servicing LNG stations?
You are talking about LNG stations, sir, right?
That's correct. That's correct.
Yeah. Actually, I have told you that-
You might end up servicing the-
I am not getting your voice. There is... You come closer to the mic. Your voice is not clear.
Yeah. Is it better now, sir?
Yeah, it's better.
Yeah. I am expecting that, you know, like you, there will be other guys who will be putting up four, five investors, you know, testing the waters. So you will be servicing those volumes also ultimately, depending on-
Yeah, yeah, yeah. True.
Yeah. So how much are you preparing yourself for servicing? I'm asking from the point of view of loading bays for LNG at the East Coast.
Okay. Okay, fine. Fine. I got your question. So it is very true that, whosoever put up the LNG station, it will be whether PLL or ONGC or CGD company , ultimately, they have to take LNG from the terminal, our terminal. So that is true. We have four loading bays right now in Dahej and one at Kochi. But we have huge plan to expand it, more than 10, 15, then 40 loading bays in future in Dahej. Because ultimately, whosoever opens the LNG station, it will be PLL only, or maybe the nearest LNG terminal, which will supply LNG to the station. So I think,
Over the next one year or, one year or maybe two years, you know, how much are you preparing yourself for? How many loading bays you will be putting up?
Loading bays, we have fully moving to almost four or five more loading bays in one year time next. This is our plan. But subsequently, we will put up as and when required and as per the requirement of the LNG station. We'll put up more, but right now, at least we want to expand to from four to almost 10.
Okay, that's confirmed. So secondly, when do we expect this 20 million ton capacity expansion to be completed?
This we plan to be around in 2023.
... Okay, because I, I mean, the way you mentioned the CAPEX plans, I thought, like, you know, the low-hanging fruit could happen, earlier, but-
Very, very low CAPEX, this endeavor, because hardly INR 200 crore, INR 220 crore will be required for this kind of-
It should be till 2023, is it?
Yeah. 2023 is our planned, it is completion.
Thanks, sir. I'll join back. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Maulik from Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, I think, referred to the earlier question, you mentioned that your, your volume is already tied up on the long-term side, so you don't have another risk compared to the newer terminal, which has come up in the last couple of years, where they have not tied up in a volume and running on the spot. But, sir, given the dynamics and we are seeing in a more LNG capacities, which are going to come up in the next 2-3 years, it's either the HPCL Chhara or, or Dabhol expansion. Do you think that we continue to increase our, our escalation of 5% in our long-term regas tariff? There has been a challenge to that. That's, I think, little early to ask that.
That this is happening as this is as per contract, it will continue. But again, if you look at other contracts also, it is 5% hike in all the regas tariff contracts. Otherwise, it's other than PL. So if there is anything, I think we have to be in sync with the market in future, but right now it will continue because this is as per the contract.
So when you say, sir, we'll be synced within the market, so assuming that, and I'm just giving a scenario where we have another 10 MMSCMD of Reliance domestic gas to be coming to the market, and what we are already witnessing, despite the pandemic, and the pandemic had an impact on LNG consumption, along with it in a high spot LNG prices. But many of these, the newer terminals are running at a very low utilization, which in the last couple of, I mean, which we have not even seen in the last one year or so. Do you think that, there's this flexibility or will you provide any... As I said, that, will there be a price wars?
I mean, we haven't seen in the LNG space because there was only one terminal lastly, which was functional. But can there be price wars in the regas space?
No, no, it's not likely to be there. Because, in fact, if you look at our terminal, it is the oldest terminal in India.
Oh.
And we have recovered the entire CAPEX out of it. So I think, we are in a better position to compete with anybody. In fact, others are, are trying to match the prices with us. So there is no likelihood of any price war in future among the terminals. This is not possible. But at the same time, we have to be competitive. We cannot stay alone in the market with charging higher. For that, we have to be seen, and we have to be in sync with the market.
Got it, sir. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mayank Maheshwari from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. So I had a bit more long-term question in terms of your gas sourcing and LNG sourcing. Can you just help us understand from a board level perspective, now, considering all the spikes that we are seeing in LNG prices for a few times now in the last six-nine months, is there a change of, of opinion of how you are kind of thinking about long-term sourcing of LNG going forward? Is there any changes that you're thinking about now?
The long-term sources, sourcing has proved to be the most, prudent decision as of now. If you look at the price, prices which are there right now in the spot market, it seems, that we have done a good thing by having long-term contracts. Because right now the prices is almost half the spot prices. So... And in any case, if you want to, run a plant like power plants, like fertilizer plant, you need to have a long-term contract. There is no second alternative to it. The spot volume can be a top-up volume after consuming certain, long-term volume. But you say that it is the only thing which can be reliable and which can be only used in any plant, it's not possible. Power plant, fertilizer plant, big industry, which is continuously running, needs continuous supply of, gas.
So it is long-term gas is the only solution. Only thing is, sometimes there is a mismatch between long-term prices and spot pricing. So that is a matter of concern. Otherwise, long-term contract is always a need, is a requirement, and has to be there for industry which we are supplying gas.
Just an additional point to that as well, I think, considering some of your contracts are expiring in a few years, and also, I suppose, your expansion of the terminals, are you kind of thinking about kind of tying up some long-term volumes now, or you think obviously spot is high, but, in the market, how are you seeing the market evolve on sourcing long-term volumes?
No, it's true that long-term contracts will be expiring in by 2028, gas contract. But at the same time, this can be renewed also. This is actually to be decided by 2023 for further extension, extension of the contracts. And then we will see that how long this will be extended.... perhaps our ambition is to increase it further after two, 2028. But only thing, the terms and conditions may differ, because it will be as per the today's market circumstances and situations. And accordingly, we'll decide what should be the price and what should be the slope for this particular event.
That should be. I need to right now we see a slope of 10% also has come to China and other places, 10.2%. So this kind of thing is there. So certainly the intention is to increase this contract further after 2028, and perhaps the price is a major consideration which will be discussed and that perhaps will drive the future contract.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Manikanta from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Thanks for giving me the opportunity. So just on the LNG stations again, you have mentioned that you'll be doing four first stations with OMCs. How does the model work there, sir, with the OMCs? We'll be still doing the CAPEX and there will be OPEX, there will be revenue share, or how does the model work there, sir?
It's a very something which is within the business. We should not disclose it. But we can say that we have assured our margin. Our only intention is that we should have at least 60% IRR on our investment. And perhaps initially we'd like to have CAPEX on LNG dispensing, and perhaps other parts, like land and other things, will be provided by OMC. The only thing is that we are ensuring that we get the adequate return on the investment, and perhaps that will not be less than 60% IRR.
Understood, sir. If I understand it correctly, my next question is, if I understand it correctly, you mentioned that you're still assessing the demand for East Coast Terminal, is that what you are saying?
We have already got it assessed two years back, but we are reaffirming the same thing because it has been done by one of the company, and again, we are reaffirming it before going ahead. Perhaps after that, it is already in the process. Maybe demand is there, absolutely no doubt. Only thing was that there was no pipeline connectivity in that region. So now this pipeline is come, GAIL pipeline is coming, that this will have their pipeline. So I think that will be nearby, and from there we can evacuate our gas through the terminal. So basically, pipeline connectivity was an issue earlier, so now it is likely that it will be there in this year itself, or it is already laid up to that place.
I think evacuation issues were there earlier, but now it has been resolved because pipeline has already come up there.
Because the pipeline has come now, you are assessing, you know, how much could be the demand is?
Yeah, yeah. That's the reason. Actually, pipeline connectivity was not there earlier. So even if we put up a terminal, it will not be feasible to run it. But now pipeline is assured, so now we can think of it.
Right, sir. So my last question is about the other expenses. I think someone has quoted the one-offs there. Can you please repeat that? Like, what are these one-offs for and how much is that?
Yeah, can you repeat? Just repeat other expenses you are asking.
Yes, sir. The one-offs in the other expenses. Can you please repeat, you know, what are these for?
The only one-off is the Forex loss of INR 32 crore in live market.
Okay. Sure, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Nitin Tiwari from Yes Bank Securities. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Thanks for giving me the opportunity. Sir, my question is related to note number four in your results release, where you have mentioned that you have placed for certain use-or-pay charges on three customers over a period of four years. May we know t which are these three customers and what time period are we exactly talking about over here? That's the one question I have, and then I'll ask you.
Yeah, actually, we have given on the note to this result. Question, this note number four is there, I think. You are asking about that, no?
Yeah, yeah. So you mentioned that three customers and four-year claim. So exactly which three customers are these and what time period we are looking at, over here?
It is not appropriate to disclose the name because... But the only thing I can say is we have limited customers. Out of that, only we have mentioned it.
Right.
It is not appropriate to give the name.
Time period in terms of which financial years are these?
Time period is always 2019, 2020 could be the period. 2019, 2019 and 2020.
2019 and 2020. Great, sir. So my next question is again related to this point only. So if we read the note, almost 75% of the amount, almost a very small amount of just about INR 200 crore, but still 75% of that amount is disputed and within. And the amount which is paid, is paid under protest. So when we say that, like, you know, we have about 16.5 million ton of capacity, which is, like, you know, under pooling and pre-boom. So how confident and comfortable we are, like, you know, that should the need be, we'll be able to press on with use-or-pay charges, and we'll be able to realize them?
It's a signed contract, so we are confident that legally we are capable of realizing this money. If somebody is not honoring the contract, this is against the spirit of law, so we can take action against them. So it is not that they are not paying and they are justified in not paying it. Legally, they are bound to pay, and legally, this is as per contract. So sometimes it happens that they have some other kind of notion that they should pay or we should not pay, but as per contract, there is no option. They have to pay it. Otherwise, we can legally demand it, and it is payable as per the signed contract.
So staying on that point, we'll be comfortable applying use-or-pay to our promoters also if need be. We have to take that.
It's a question of not the promoters are there, no doubt, but that's why we are saying that we are in due course of resolving the issue. So we are trying to avoid any litigation or legal action because our thought process is that we should resolve this issue mutually.
Right.
That's why we are writing it, it should be resolved in due course of time. Let us hope for the best. It should not be litigated about everything.
Right. Right. Great. That answers my question. And, sir, one more, if I may. So again, pertaining to this topic only, so we have basically a total capacity of 16.5 million ton , but the 8.5 million ton that we are getting from RasGas that we have contracted with, is an integral part of the 16.5 pooling, assured business that we have.
Right.
Would that mean that, like, you know, since the contract is expiring in 2028, so it is imperative upon us to most surely renew that contract, otherwise our assured business will go on. So, which in fact means that, like, we have very little elbow room over there. So is that right understanding?
No, no, I just already said that it will be reviewed in 2033, and our endeavor will be to renew the contract for further, at least for 10, 20 years, 10, 15 years.
It is our ambition, and I'm fully confident that this will happen because this is a good contract, and perhaps we'll be able to negotiate with them, and we'll continue to utilize our capacity as we are doing right now.
Sure, sir. Thanks for answering my questions. I will get back with you.
Thank you very much. We will take our last question. That is from the line of Mr. Vikas Jain from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for the opportunity. I would like to clarify the situation.
Sorry to interrupt, sir. Your voice is-
I'm not able to listen, Vikas.
There's some problem in mic, I think. The line got dropped.
Oh.
I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Gagan Dixit for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Yeah. Yeah. Thanks, thanks for all the participants, and special thanks to Mr. V.K. Mishra for sharing views on the company's first quarter performance. Any closing comments, sir?
Only thing is that, you should maintain the confidence with us and, perhaps, our company business model is very robust. You will not find a company where the business is so assured, even at the time of this pandemic. So I just want to convey to my analysts and investors that you just continue to report confidence on us. We'll continue to grow in future, and perhaps it will be better than whatever it is today. That's all from my side.
Yeah. Thanks, sir. Thanks. Yeah, you can disconnect the call.
Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thank you very much. Thanks to all.
I speak on behalf of Elara Securities Private Limited . That concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.