Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Premier Energies Limited Q4 and FY25 Earnings C onference Call hosted by ICICI Securities Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your touch-tone phone. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Shruti. Good morning. On behalf of ICICI Securities, I welcome you all to the Q4 and FY2025 earnings call of Premier Energies. Today, we have with us from the management, Mr. Chiranjeev Singh Saluja, Managing Director, Mr. Nand Kishore Khandelwal, CFO, and Mr. Vinay Rustagi, Senior Director, Investor Relations. We will begin with the opening remarks from management, which will be followed by Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Mohit. Am I audible?
Yes, sir. You are.
Mohit, thank you. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us today for our financial year 2025 results call. I'm joined today by my colleague, Mr. N. K. Khandelwal, Group CFO, Sudhir Reddy, Director and Chief Strategy Officer, Vinay Rustagi, Chief Business Officer. Premier Energies has had an outstanding year with excellent revenue and earnings growth. For the whole year, the company achieved a total revenue of INR 56,521 million, registering a 110% growth over the previous year. EBITDA came in at INR 19,142 million, exhibiting a growth of 279%, while PAT grew by 305% to INR 9,371 million. These strong results have come because of robust demand across different segments in the domestic market, plus our strong focus on optimizing operations and building customer relationships. I'm very pleased to share with all of you about our long-term vision of maintaining a leadership position in the industry.
As part of our Mission 2028, we have set ourselves a target of achieving a 10-gigawatt ingot, wafer, cell, and module integrated capacity. Apart from this, our entry into battery energy storage business and inverter businesses. Our previously announced growth projects are progressing very well. A new 1.4-gigawatt module line has become operational last week, while the 1.2-gigawatt TOPCon cell line is due for commissioning next month. Work is also progressing well on our 4.8-gigawatt TOPCon and 5.6-gigawatt module line, which is a part of the 4 plus 4 of the IPO proceeds, as well as the 2-gigawatt wafer plant. We are also ready to move ahead with our investments into the U.S. space for a 1.2-gigawatt cell line as and when there is more clarity on the U.S. policy.
Including these ongoing expansion plans and the new initiatives announced today as part of our Mission 2028, our total estimated CapEx over the next three years is going to be INR 125,000 million. We believe that Mission 2028 places us in a great competitive position with investments in scale, advanced technology, backward integration, and a complementary product portfolio with huge synergies. Overall, we see a very good demand visibility in the solar sector. There's a strong policy impetus behind the government's flagship Suryaghar and KUSUM schemes, both of which require DCR modules. With the implementation of ALMM on cells from June 2026 onwards, the market is gradually moving to a 100% DCR status. The Government of India remains very supportive of domestic manufacturing, and to this end, a new National Manufacturing Mission has been announced in the Union Budget 2025.
We expect specific policy support for promoting upstream manufacturing to be announced shortly. We are continuously examining the market landscape and remain open to new growth opportunities, offering scale and synergies with our existing business. Thank you. We are now open for questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Nidhi Shah from ICICI Securities. You may proceed.
Thank you so much for taking my question. Firstly, on the INR 125 billion CapEx that has been announced over the next three years or so, I want to know what was the CapEx from this INR 125 billion that was already undertaken in FY 2025, and what will we have in 2026 and 2027? Basically, the phasing of the CapEx. That is my first question.
Sure, sir. Allow Vinay to take this question.
Yeah, Nidhi, this is Vinay here. In terms of the CapEx, the 4.8-gigawatt cell line and the 5.6-gigawatt module line, the bulk of the CapEx will be incurred in the current financial year because we are anticipating completion by the end of this financial year or early next year. For the other businesses, CapEx will be incurred in a phased-out manner because we are anticipating a phased ramp-up of the battery energy storage business as well as the inverter business.
Okay. So my second question is on DCR. How much percentage of the current order book will be DCR? That is one. And secondly, how do we see DCR demand this year in FY 2026 compared to how FY 2025 has been? What can we expect from DCR perspective, not only because of the ALMM one kicking in, but even otherwise, the existing segments of the PM Suryaghar and the KUSUM schemes?
Yeah, I think if you see our presentation, we have given an order book breakup between cells, modules, and the EPC business. We're not able to, unfortunately, break down that number in more detail in terms of DCR versus non-DCR.
The question was on demand for DCR.
In terms of demand for DCR, the demand envelope remains very, very strong. Like we said in the presentation, there are three components to demand right now, namely the Suryaghar Yojana scheme, the KUSUM scheme, and the CPSU scheme. Between these three schemes, the total demand as per the government targets is about 65 gigawatts over the next two years. Even if you take a slightly realistic and more conservative number, there is likely to be very strong demand over the next two years. Of course, with ALMM cells being implemented from June 2026 onwards, there will be more market segments, namely the copper segment as well as the ICP segment opening up in the next two years.
Okay. Just to follow up on what you mentioned, that you're expecting demand from these three different schemes in detail. Have you seen anything coming up in the first one- and- a- half months of this year? Has there been either more inquiries on this? As a first. Secondly, you mentioned again the ALMM one kicking in. Have the notifications come out? Have you got any orders pertaining to that? Do we expect this to kick in in June, or could there be any delays?
I think taking the first question first, yes, of course, we are seeing more and more customer inquiries for both the schemes, particularly the Suryaghar Yojana and the KUSUM scheme. In terms of the government policy, I think that is a hypothetical question in our view. As I said, the annual demand expectation is about 30 odd gigawatts from the government policy perspective. Already, the domestic cell capacity is about 25 gigawatts. More capacity is coming online as we speak, and we expect there to be enough capacity by the middle of next year for it to be able to cater to domestic demand. As such, plus given the government support for the sector, we do not see any possibility of any ALMM relaxation for sales.
All right. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Deepak Krishnan from Kotak Institutional Equities. You may proceed.
Hi, sir. Am I audible?
Yes, Deepak, you are.
Yeah. I just wanted to first check on this exact wafer. Are we going to await any policy support to do this? Because some of the players have PLI, and we do not currently. Are we going to get some local SPECS schemes for that? Secondly, on the BESS 12-gigawatt capacity, what are you going to do in terms of how much is the CapEx, what level of backward integration? Maybe this is the first question, and then I will come back for a couple more.
Sure. For ingot wafer, Deepak, we have already announced our timeline for setting up the 2 gigawatt wafer facility, which is in a JV with SAS of Taiwan. This is planned for commissioning in FY2027, and we are seeing very strong demand for non-Chinese wafers and ingot. To answer your question on SPECS, yes, we are working with the government for subsidies through SPECS , apart from state government subsidies. We will be evaluating our CapEx deployment plans on expansion. The target is to achieve 10 gigawatts. We are starting with a 2 gigawatt wafer. As and when we see plans getting firm, we will update the market on that. Your next question was on batteries, right? On that, we are getting into, to start with, a cell-to-pack manufacturing line along with EPC offerings to our IPP customers. We will be doing this in two phases.
The first phase would come up in FY2027, and the second in FY2028. Each is going to be a 6 gigawatt-hour capacity. That is the plan on the BESS investments.
All right. Sure. So maybe just on the commissioning of your module and cell line, I think given that your cell is about a quarter, at least, the 1 gigawatt, than what we had initially thought to do, and we've had a change of location for the 4 gigawatts, how confident are you of achieving the 6.4 capacity by 2026? Is there a mood stabilization before that, or are you employing COD plus stabilization by June 2026?
Yeah. For the 1.4-gigawatt module, it's already commissioned, as we announced in the opening remark. The 1.2-gigawatt TOPCon cell line is getting commissioned next month, which is well in time compared to the date which we had shared in the last quarterly results. We had said it would be commissioned by June 2026, and it is on track. On the 4 plus 4, which has now become 4.8 and 5.6, that's enhanced capacity, this is also well on track. Changing location has actually given us an advantage rather than a disadvantage because the new location is far better a site in terms of the land development work to be done. Also, the connectivity to the substation is far better compared to the earlier site. We are on track, and we do not anticipate any delays in those projects in terms of commissioning.
In fact, we are trying to get the enhanced capacity commissioned by then. Instead of 4, we would maybe achieve 4.8, and instead of 5, we'll achieve 5.6 well within the stipulated timeline.
Sure. Maybe just a thought process. Essentially, no policy support today in terms of inverter waiver or BESS would be sort of awaiting anything on that front, or will we go ahead and commission irrespective of any government equivalent policy coming for domestic sourcing at that particular point of time?
Yeah, hi, Deepak. Vinay here. Like we said in the opening remarks, there is a new manufacturing mission, national manufacturing mission being announced by the government. We have been in consultations with MNRE already over the policy support needed for the upstream manufacturing space. The government is working on a set of incentives. It could be a mix of financial incentives, duties, and other ALMM-like measures, which will be announced in due course. We are in consultations with the government and expecting a package to be announced over the next year.
Sure. And all our expansion, essentially, the cell is with TOPCon today, right? And if anything, the technology, that we look at it in the future, or are we adding anything else in some of the newer capabilities as well?
No, that's correct. The current lines are all being set up using TOPCon technology. Having said that, we are in parallel doing a lot of work behind the scenes on new technologies. You may have seen last month we signed an MOU with a German company. We are also studying new technologies, whether it is BakC ontact, or there, or Sky Tandem, etc. We will be anticipating these developments and be ready to commercialize and set up lines as and when there's a commercial viability.
Sure. I think just maybe one final question from my end. Just a slight different revenue that we've seen this quarter versus the previous quarter with similar level of utilization. Our understanding is it's because of a higher DCR mix versus the previous quarter. Is that sort of a fair understanding?
Deepak, I won't read too much into the small dip that we have seen. That can be caused by a number of different factors, one of those being the change in the product mix, as you said. Also, given that it is year-end, some clients are hesitant to take deliveries. I think some shipments have been delayed simply because of that. I think there are a number of factors. Overall, I would say in terms of utilization of the line and the product mix, there is no major change.
Sure. Any FY26 guidance that you have in mind, or no public guidance at this point?
No, no, no. I mean, look, I think you know what is the planned delivery of all the new expansion capacities. You know what is our order book also. I think that should be able to give you enough guidance in terms of numbers. As such as a company, we're not giving any specific guidance.
Sure, sir. Those are my questions for future work.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Bala Murali from Oman Investments. You may proceed.
Yeah, good morning.
Good morning
We have a big [ CapEx plan for INR 12500]. What could be the asset turnover business from the CapEx?
Sorry, could you repeat that? We couldn't hear the second half of your question.
Yeah. What could be the asset turn for the CapEx we are going to incur? Approximate asset turn, how much we can expect there in terms of asset turn?
Hi, this is Vinay here. Of course, this depends on how the pricing and the demand envelope shapes up over the next three years. We are expecting, based on all this CapEx, fixed asset turnover of about between 2.2-2.5 times by the end of this implementation program.
That's correct.
So far, by enhancing some of the cell capacity to 6.4 gigawatts in the next fiscal year, how much it could contribute to margins? Is there any significant—can I expect any significant move in the margins, or it would be—
Bala, could you be a little closer to the phone? We are not able to hear you clearly.
Yeah. I'm asking about a cell line after we commission the 6.4 gigawatt in the upcoming year. How is it going to impact the margins? Can you expect any significant movement in the margins, or it would be a similar line as of now?
Bala, I think it is very difficult to predict how the margins are going to play out. It is a very fast-moving industry with a lot of variables out there. Insofar as we have the visibility and the order book which is already committed for the next year, we should be able to, by and large, maintain our margins. We are not able to give any guidance as such.
Okay. Lastly, on the execution side, mostly we are focused on the domestic side only. I think we are not exporting much to any other countries. How do the margins compare to domestic and exports, and do we have any plans in this year or coming year to increase the export content?
Yeah. I think in terms of the export markets, I think the U.S. is the main export opportunity for India right now. Although we do hope that Europe and some other countries will open up in the future. In the U.S. itself, there is a little bit of a short-term uncertainty given the recent tariff moves by the U.S. government. We do expect more clarity to come up as the trade treaty with the U.S. is signed up over the next few months. The U.S. is a market which remains of great interest to us. We have already, as you know, previously announced a 1.2 gigawatt cell venture there and are looking at other business opportunities. As and when there is more clarity, we will move and move into those projects and capitalize on those opportunities.
Okay. Thank you for that answer.
Yeah. As of today, at least over the foreseeable period, most of our revenue and profit is expected to come from the Indian market.
Good. That's fine. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anupam Goswami from SUD Life. You may proceed.
Hi, sir. My first question on the—if you can give some light on the price realization that is going on currently and what sort of spread are we making in the different categories. Over the long term, sir, where do we see the capacity of cell coming, and how do we see the price movement in the next three to four years?
Sure. In terms of the current pricing, I think this is publicly available information. The DCR modules, the general pricing is around $24-$25 cents. Non-DCR modules are at about $ 17 cents. For cells, again, there is a little bit of a variation depending on whether cells are being sold in the Indian market or exports. In the Indian market, prices tend to be around $14-$15 cents. Export market prices are a little lower. In terms of future trend, I think it is very difficult to say how these prices will evolve. Insofar as our order book is concerned, this is more or less in line with the prices that I've indicated to you.
Yeah. Just to add on the future with cell capacities coming in, we feel that we are very well positioned on the three pillars which are required for this business. One is scale, one is the technology, and the third is vertical integration. We do not see any foreseeable risk in the coming two to three years in terms of additional capacities coming in because we feel that these three pillars are very important in terms of success in this business. Premier is very well positioned on all these three pillars. The demand also is growing. We do not see any major kind of margin erosion coming in because of capacity because several of the announcements which have been made, we feel only about 50% of those will actually come up.
Okay, sir. Thank you, sir. I'll turn back in.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nikhil Nigania from Bernstein. You may proceed.
Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I'll just have a follow-up on the U.S. market. While I understand the focus on the domestic market given the strong realization and margins here itself, I just want to understand if the proposed anti-dumping duties they have on Southeast Asian players go through Vietnam, Malaysia, etc. Do you think that could open up a big front for Premier as well, as a couple of your competitors have been targeting that space? Any particular reason why we have not been that exposed to the U.S. market as some of our peers are?
You're right that the CMTV duties have opened up a big market for Indian players. As we said earlier, we are committed more to first cater to the domestic demand. We have always been giving priority to the Indian market, not now, but from the last two years since we started making cells. As far as for the U.S. market, some of our peers are exporting modules. We, as a company, had a very clear strategy that we would like to restrict ourselves to exporting cells to the U.S. because we do not want to compete with our clients in the U.S. Our strategy was clear that it is not easy to make cells and not easy to make good quality, high-efficiency cells. We at Premier have achieved this and have been consistently exporting cells to U.S. module manufacturers.
We feel that it has played out well for us because now in the U.S. market, there is almost about close to 30 gigawatts of operational module capacity, but very little cell capacity, which means that the demand for cells from the U.S. is huge. We would look at increasing exports to the U.S. only when we have our new capacities coming in, that is starting June 26. For now, our focus commitment is towards the Indian market, and the Government of India has really supported the manufacturing, and we want to ensure that supplies to the U.S. through the Indian programs are consistent.
Also, just to add, Nikhil, I think, first of all, we remain completely open to—we are actively tracking the U.S. market, and we remain open to any such opportunity. The fact is that beyond CMTV, there are other countries which are exporting cells to the U.S. As I said also earlier, the prices that we realize in the U.S. are lower than in the domestic market. The domestic market, there is a very strong demand-plus pricing environment. From a company point of view, that is something which is more conducive to us, more attractive for our business. We are deliberately keeping more of a focus on the domestic market. As and when the market evolves and the U.S. market grows and the pricing is more attractive, we will be ready to effectively tap into that market and supply more volume there.
Got it. Very, very helpful. Thanks for that answer. My second and last question was on the new opportunities being targeted, especially BESS. It's a thought process there that what we have seen happen in the solar PV industry with government restricting imports into the country, there is a similar expectation we have playing out in BESS as well. It's a thought process to be an early mover in that space.
Yeah. Sure, Nikhil. You're right. I think that would be—that's a pretty logical assumption. The government is very committed to making India. There is a huge amount of investment which is going to go into the storage space. Inevitably, there would be more indigenization in that space as well. Our thought process in terms of the best market is that we are initially going to focus on cell-to-pack container solutions and the EPC business, really just to understand the client needs, the technology, the value chain, etc. It is not—this part of the business is not particularly capital-intensive. As and when there is a more conducive policy framework that emerges, and we feel enough confidence in terms of going further backstream—upstream rather, sorry—we will examine the foray into the cell manufacturing business.
Got it. Those are my questions. Thanks for asking them. Thank you.
You too.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mayur Patel from 361 Asset.
Hi. Steller performance, Chiranjeev and the team, thanks for the opportunity. Just want to ask, INR 3,100 crores of new bookings. So is it fair to assume that some part of that would be also related to the greenfield which is coming in 2026, the cell and the module?
Yeah. So you're talking about ALMM list two, right? The cell one which is going to come up?
Yeah. Your greenfield project, Chiranjeev. Earlier, you were trying to—
Our greenfield project. Yes. Yes, the project which is the greenfield project which is coming up, there's a very, very small amount which would spill over into that project. As of now, most of these have timelines of around, I would say, 12-14 months. What we show in our order book, Mayur, is signed, advances received, and confirmed order book. This does not include our pipeline. Our pipeline would be almost similar or a little higher than the 5 gigawatt of order book which we have. There is a lot of pipeline which is under discussion. As and when these get finalized, we add them in the order book. Not a significant portion of this order book is from the greenfield project.
Got it. So say next three to six months, we should expect the pipeline getting converted into bookings related to the greenfield which is going to come in 2026, right?
Yes.
Correct. Perfect. I'll join the Q&A for more questions and all the best.
Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sanjay Mookim from JPMorgan. You may proceed.
Hi. Good morning, everybody. A couple of questions on the utilizations. The cell utilization has remained relatively stagnant at about 74-75% for two quarters. Is this what we should assume continues in the future, or do you expect the utilization to go up again?
Sanjay, I think you're talking about module utilization.
The module. I beg pardon. I beg the module. That's right.
Yeah. Let me answer this question to you, Sanjay. Unlike the cell business, the module business has different customers buying a different category of products from us. Some buy mono PERCs. Some are moved into TOPCon. In TOPCon, there is M10, M10 Plus size. Then there is also a G12R. Unlike a cell manufacturer producing one product category 24 hours, 365 days, in a module line, you would actually require several changeovers depending on customer requirements. For cell manufacturing, we see that the peak could be around 80-85%. It is at 75% now. We do not expect the module line to go to 95% like cell.
Right. Thanks for that, Chiranjeev . The second question is, let's say when we say that the utilization of the cell line was 95% for the quarter, is it fair to assume that if I take your capacity of 2 gigawatts multiplied by 95, that gives me an estimate of how many cells?
No. No. This is 95% of effective capacity. Again, in a cell line, you've got various formats of wafers which you can process. What we are making today is an M10 Plus wafer. 2 gigawatts would be based on G12 wafer, which is still not under production and is not being used in India. This is not 95% of 2 gigawatts. It would be 95% of around 1.8 gigawatts, 1.8, 1.85 gigawatts.
Great. It would be great if you can get some sense of quarterly production of both cells and modules, right, because it will help track pricing and margins better for us. Perhaps if you could talk about how many cells and modules produced or sold this quarter, that would be great.
I think we have not been sharing this data in the past too, and we do not intend to, Sanjay, because of confidential reasons. We will just be able to give what we are giving as of now every quarter. We would not be very comfortable to share further details.
Okay. Okay. Thanks. Those are my questions. Thanks, Chiranjeev.
Yeah. Sanjay, can you hear me?
Yep. Hi Vinay .
No, this is to say Hi. I was just going to say that we've given an indication of what the delta between effective capacity and named state capacity is. We have given you the capacity based on effective capacity. I think I'm actually not very difficult to guess.
Of course. Thank you, Vinay.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Hemant, an i ndividual Investor. You may proceed.
Congratulations on stellar set of numbers, and thank you for providing for the opportunity. Pardon me, actually, I'm new to the company. I just wanted to clear up the thing.
First of all, our initial capacity of cell was 2 gigawatts, and module was for 4.1 gigawatts. The plan was to take the cell capacity to 7 gigawatts and module to, I guess, 9 gigawatts, right? Out of the 9 gigawatt module capacity, we have implemented 1.1 gigawatts, right? 1.4. 1.4. I had a look at the investor presentation uploaded, I think, yesterday. That 7 gigawatt cell capacity is still intact, plus 0.8 gigawatt will be we will be adding over and above it.
That's correct, yes
Y And then some more also to achieve 10. We have put a mission 2028, which talks about 10 gigawatt inverter-based cell and module, which is being announced in the results and the presentation on Saturday. The 1.4 is already commissioned in terms of module. Cell, we were at 2.
Another 1.2 is getting added next month, and then 4.8 getting added instead of 4, which was announced earlier. The overall target is to achieve 10.
10 gigawatt of cell and 10 gigawatt of module, right?
That's right.
You are saying that 1.4 gigawatt of module has already been added, and 1.1 will be added in the next month, right, of cell ?
Yes. 1.2. 1.2 will be added.
What will be the cell capacity by FY2027 then? Because the numbers get changed, right?
Yes. 2 is what is operational. 1.2 is getting added, which takes you to 3.2 next month. FY2027, we are adding 4.8, which will take you to 8 gigawatt in terms of cell capacity in FY2027. We have announced another 2 gigawatt, another 1.6 to 2 gigawatt getting added in FY2028. If you look at the presentation page number.
18.
We have given a very clear roadmap on capacity expansion plans with the dates.
Okay. And sir, what will be the module capacity, sir, by FY2027? It will be now, I guess, 11 gigawatts?
Yeah. It will be 11.1. It will be slightly higher than the 10, which we have a target, but it's going to be 11.1.
Sir, one I wanted to ask you.
Yes. Yes.
Sir, I wanted to ask you one more thing. Sir, what is the tenure of the current order book on a blended basis? Sir, what is the, I mean, order in terms of megawatt which we have executed in the current fiscal year?
The blended basis, the order book is for about 12-15 months. If you look at the order book, it is about 5.3 gigawatts, which is the order book which is shown on slide number 23.
Sir, what is the order book in terms of megawatt which we have executed in the FY25?
That number, we are not able to give you, as we said earlier, because we do not release the actual production numbers or the sales numbers in terms of megawatts.
Actually, just wanted to have an idea regarding.
Hello. Sorry to interrupt. Sir, we request you to join the queue as we have other participants as well.
Okay. Okay.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dhruv Muchhal from HDFC AMC. You may proceed.
Yeah. Thank you so much, sir. Just some understanding on your CapEx number, INR 12,500 crore. If I use some industry benchmarks on CapEx and your ongoing and future expansion plans for cell and module, is it right to understand almost 50% of your total CapEx plan is ex of cells and modules? I mean, probably it is going into wafers and wafer ingot and the batteries and others.
Yeah. Hi, Jo. So you're right. I mean, in terms of ingot and wafer, the expected CapEx on a 12 gigawatt basis is about INR 400 crore. For 10 gigawatts, that would be about INR 4,000 crore. There will be some CapEx, obviously, on BESS as well as the inverter businesses. In total, the BESS CapEx is about INR 600 crore for this capacity. For inverters, the CapEx would be about INR 100-150 crore.
Got it. This is helpful. The second question was on the wafer expansion that we are, the 2 gigawatt wafer expansion that's progressing. Some understanding on the status of land. I'm not sure if this requires an EC, so EC approval, equipment ordering, and some of the other status, please.
Yeah. The plan is to commission the 2 gigawatt in FY2027. We have already acquired the land, and it is well aligned with what we have targeted to commission this line. This is with the Taiwanese company, SAS, which is a JV. It is a 2 gigawatt line.
The equipment ordering and everything is all done. Would it require an environment clearance approval? I'm not sure if that is.
It would require from the state. It's in process, and it will be a long time. It will be okay in the long time.
Sir, so I'm still trying to understand. What we used to understand was there is a specific size for any polysilicon or wafer plant. Some industry, some reading suggested it's about 5 or 10 gigawatts. Does 2 gigawatt, I mean, I'm just trying to understand you're going ahead with a 2 gigawatt plan.
This is okay. The target and the Mission 2028 talks of 10 gigawatts. 2 gigawatts is .
Okay. The specific size can be lower, and it does not impact the economics of the project.
The land has been acquired for entire 10 gigawatts.
Yeah. Good.
To answer your question, line size can be lower, but it is the procurement efficiencies, etc., which do make the operations optimal and which we will achieve over a period of three years.
Okay. Sure. The last two questions is just a small point on the CWIP in your balance sheet. It's about INR 2.4 billion, if I see the numbers. I'm just wondering, your cell line is yet to commission, I think, over 1.4 gigawatts. The module line, I'm not sure if it's commissioned in, I mean, before the March quarter end or not. The CWIP number seems low. Have you already capitalized a portion of the CapEx for the cell line, or is there still payments pending, and hence it will all come up next year?
No. So we have not capitalized on the cell. The module line was also not commissioned before March. It was commissioned on the 16th of May, and we have not capitalized it.
In that context, the CWIP number seems low. Is it just because the cash pending is coming in the next year and hence everything? Or I'm just trying to understand, has the CapEx amount come down significantly for the projects?
Yeah. There are payments due to vendors, and that's why everything is not being capitalized. The number is lower in CWIP.
It's not showing in the CWIP. Got it. Sir, last question on the U.S. market outlook. What we understand is the duties in some of these Southeast Asian region countries where the U.S. was importing a large quantum are already in place, and provisional duties are already there. Some final announcements are pending. China is already there, and India's positioning related to some of the other regions seems very strong. I'm just trying to, as you mentioned, 30 gigawatt of module is there in the U.S. I'm just wondering, aren't you seeing a lot of inquiries from the U.S. companies to source cells? I'm not sure if pricing can be better in the U.S. market now, given the shortages that they are likely to face. What am I missing here? I mean, just trying to understand.
I understand the focus on India, but at least from an inquiry level and others, are you seeing that feelers from the market?
Dhruv, you're right. I think all the factors you already mentioned, I think what is missing is a long-term predictability of the tariff regime, right? I think the problem is that these changes have been coming so thin and fast that everybody is kind of really sitting back a little bit and just trying to make sure they understand the market landscape. Of course, there is also a trade treaty with the U.S. under negotiation. I think both from the customer side in the U.S. as well as the supplier side for us, I think it is better to wait a little bit before we fully understand the market landscape and start discussing order book. That is the kind of little holdup right now.
Okay. So it's a wait-and-watch situation, both with the customer and with you. Okay. Got it. Sure, sir. That's very helpful. Thanks and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Akash Mehta from Canara HSBC L ife. You may proceed.
Hi. So my first question is on, I mean, leverage. I mean, what kind of debt to equity or debt to EBITDA, unless debt to EBITDA, we are kind of targeting with the ongoing CapEx by maybe fiscal 2027 or 2028. So yeah, that's my first question.
Sure, Akash. Based on the modeling that we have done internally, first of all, we expect to be able to fund all the CapEx using internal accruals and cash on book. Our expectation is that the total leverage will peak out at about 1.4-1.5 times in terms of debt to equity and about 2 times in terms of debt to EBITDA. Both of which we feel are fairly conservative numbers and easily manageable in the context of the larger industry parameters.
Okay. That's helpful. My second question is in terms of the upstream investments that we are making or backward integration, what kind of sustainable margins we can kind of expect? I mean, earlier, the expectations were low, but I think we might end up getting slightly better realisations or some cost savings as well because of our investments. I mean, maybe by fiscal 2028, 2029, what kind of sustainable margins that we can look at for Premier, I mean, going ahead?
Yeah. Akash, I think that is a very interesting question, and I think we would love to know the answer, to be honest, ourselves. Like I said earlier, there are so many changes in the industry. It is very, very dynamic. It is impossible to kind of predict how the margins will evolve. Our expectation is that in the cell and module business, we would be able to, by and by, sustain our margins over the next three years. Even for all the modeling and the market assessment that we have done for the BESS and the inverter business, that is also very, very attractive in terms of EBITDA margins as well as return on capital employed. I think for the upstream business, the ingot wafer business, much of it depends on how the policy framework shapes up.
I think it is impossible to give you any kind of guidance or expectation on that number.
I mean, since this will be like an integrated thing, I mean, we could expect a decent margin expansion at least from what we are, right, on the cell and module front?
Yeah. I think, again, that would be the logical assumption. As I said, there are so many other moving parts to this, right, in terms of demand-supply envelope, technology outlook, customer expectations, etc. It is not just one factor. There are so many other variables which will affect the margin, and hence it is difficult to take any reasonable guess at it.
Okay. Yeah. That's it from my side. Thank you. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sarang Joglekar from Vimana Capital. You may proceed.
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. This is regarding the 14th slide in the investors' presentation about the demand for DCR modules. You stated that for the next two years, there's going to be significant demand, 27 from PM Suryaghar and 30 from KUSUM. I believe that was the total demand over three years, and a lot of it was installed last year also, right? Do you still think that another 50 gigawatt of DCR will be there over the next two years?
Sorry, I did not get your name, but I think the numbers that we have given are based on the government schemes and the targets. Looking at each of them one by one, in the Suryaghar Yojana, there is a target of 1 crore installations, out of which only 10 lakh odd has been done till date. 90% of the demand is still yet to come. Similarly, in the KUSUM program, if you look at the actual execution on the ground, out of the 35 gigawatts of target, installations are only currently about 4 to 5 gigawatts. There are a lot of projects that have been bid and allocated post-auctions. There is a lot of capacity under execution. 30 gigawatts of actual module demand is yet to come to the market. Similarly, likewise for the 5- gigawatt CPSU scheme.
Now, these are government numbers, and we are not saying that this will be the actual capacity execution. That will, of course, depend on a few factors. Even if you take slight moderation in these numbers in terms of realistic on-the-ground development, there is a very robust demand environment.
Got it. So.
There is enough.
Yeah.
Please.
Yeah. Please go ahead.
No, I was just saying these are only in terms of ALMM cells being applicable right now, but that will also become applicable to the corporate market from next year, wherein we expect demand to start materializing from Q1 of the next financial year. Even taking into account the delays in the utility-scale market, we do expect that market also to start becoming like a 100% DCR market from 2027 onward. As we go forward, the DCR demand is likely to keep on increasing over time.
Got it. Also, there was some problem around delay in signing the PPAs. Do you see that affecting the solar demand?
Look, to be honest, I think that that is a big red herring in the sector. It is causing a lot of confusion, unfortunately. If you look at the reality, the government has auctioned about 90 gigawatts of projects in the last two financial years. That is basically all solar, wind, and hybrid projects. The actual number that will translate into demand is expected to be much higher because many of these projects, the hybrid projects, are typically oversized 1.5-2.5 times.
Now, even if 40 gigawatts of PPAs have not been signed as per the new headlines, I'm looking at it as a positive in the sense that 50 gigawatts of PPAs have been signed, which itself would translate easily into solar demand of about 50-55 gigawatts over the next three years, in addition to all the demand which is there from the projects which have been auctioned in the past. Like you see on slide number 14, we have said that the utility-scale solar demand will be 20 gigawatts plus per annum. I think if you see what is in the pipeline by way of projects being auctioned and the PPAs being signed, that provides us with a very healthy demand outlook for the market.
Got it. Thank you. That's it from my side.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kartik Sharma from Anand Rathi. You may proceed.
Hi. I hope I'm audible. Congratulations on a great set of numbers, and thank you for taking my question. Thank you.
You gave a breakup to the previous gentleman about the CapEx that you have a BESS of INR 600 crore and inverters of INR 150 crore. Just in a similar way, if you could give us a timeline breakup of that CapEx, that would be very helpful. That is my first question. My second question is, how much of your cells are captive as of now, and what kind of realisations do you see for modules and for cells when you sell them, and how will it be going forward?
On the CapEx side, we have already given you data in terms of the investments which you're making in the battery and inverter business. We've also given details as to when what capacity is coming up. I think the numbers are quite clear. In terms of captive consumption, around 50% of the cells what we produce goes into captive consumption for DCR modules. I think we may also share the market prices for all these products, DCR, non-DCR, and the cell realisation.
Also, just to add to that, the share of captive consumption for cells will go up over a period of time over the next two years because, like I said, by 2027, the entire market is expected to be almost, I would say, 100% DCR. We will go from 50% captive consumption to 100% over these two years.
Okay. Thank you so much. Just one follow-up question. Like how you said that you found your effective capacity, that is of 2 gigawatts of cell, you take 95% of the 1.8 gigawatts and not the 2 gigawatts. How is that for the module?
For the module, it is about 75% what we are at today, and we have said that the peak we could achieve is around 80-85%. That is also the similar thing. If you produce a G12 cell module, that is the installed capacity. If you are producing an M10 or M10 Plus, which is a slightly smaller size of wafer, then the effective capacity comes down. When we talk of utilisation, we always talk of what we have achieved on the effective capacity and not on the nameplate.
Thanks. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mohnish Dudhwala from Axia Asset Management. You may proceed.
Yeah. Good morning, sir.
Good morning.
Yes. So just wanted to understand regarding our realisation. Our order book, which is of 5.3 gigawatts, right, and in value terms, it is around INR 8,445 crore. This makes our realisation of around INR 15.9 per watt. As you said, current DCR realisations prevailing in the market are $0.24 per watt, which are around INR 21 per watt. Can you help me understand the difference regarding the gap between the two?
If you see, there is a 27% split in the order book for cells, and cells is much lower, right? What you are calculating is the average price. We are not given a breakup of the DCR, non-DCR, and the cell capacity is already being shown on the screen.
Yeah. I think the difference is that you are working with a weighted average price. Of course, in terms of the order book, there is a difference between cells, DCR, and non-DCR modules and with the prices that we've already given to you. That explains the difference between the average prices and the individual product prices.
Sure. Understood. Out of this 5.3 gigawatts, it is split between modules as well as cells, and similar with the value. That's why there are differences.
The modules include DCR and non-DCR both?
Majority of our modules would be DCR, right?
Not necessary. You would like to put it the way it is. We do not want to do a breakup there.
Okay. Sure. That's all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mayank Bhandari from Asian Market. You may proceed.
Just on the growth guidance, what kind of guidance you would like to give for FY 2026 and 2027 based on the capacity expansion?
Yeah. Hi, Mayank. We do not give out any specific numbers in terms of guidance, but I think a very strong indication is available in the form of order book, which is all due for execution over the next 12-14 months. We have already talked about our capacity envelope over the next year, the current prices, and the order book. That should give you a reasonable visibility into the revenues as well as the profit numbers for the next year.
In terms of margin, if we're looking forward to so much of backward integration, any long-term margin expectation next three, four years?
We already covered this question a few times. I think it is very difficult to predict how the margins will play out over the next three to four years because there are so many changes in the market all the time. I think the key question is, what is our competitive position in the sector? There, because of the huge strength that we have built into the business over the last few years in terms of and the continuing investments in new capacity, backward integration, technology upgradation, etc., I think the focus for us is to protect our competitive position and be close to the market, anticipate the market needs, and be able to respond to that. We believe that that will provide us with a very strong position in terms of revenues as well as profit margins, etc. That is where the focus is.
Okay. And just lastly, if you could just give a brief on just give a proportion of FY 2027 revenue, probably in terms of cell, module, and wafer. Just a brief, I mean, just a guesstimate would work, the composition of the revenue.
No, I think I would love to give you that number, but unfortunately, we can't. FY 2027 is still more than is about a year away, right? In terms of most of the orders, they are yet to be booked. Again, you have a clear visibility in terms of how our capacity envelope is going to shape up because of all these projects that we are working on. We would expect the revenues and profit numbers to move accordingly.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Due to time constraints, that was the last question. I now hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you very much. It's been a fantastic year of performance for the company. I think our focus as we go forward is, one, on executing all the projects on time and on budget. We are very focused also on making sure that we are maintaining our leadership position in the industry and continually examining new opportunities. That is where the focus is, and we would expect to stay as one of the preferred suppliers to capitalize on the emerging opportunities and the growing demand in the sector. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of ICICI Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.