Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Ramkrishna Forgings Q4 FY 2024 earnings conference call hosted by Nuvama Wealth Management. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Raghu Nandan from Nuvama Wealth Management. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Good evening, everyone. Welcome. On behalf of Nuvama Wealth Management, I would like to welcome you all to this earnings call of Ramkrishna Forgings. I would like to welcome the management and thank them for giving us this opportunity. We have with us today Mr. Naresh Jalan, Managing Director, Mr. Lalit Khetan, Full-time Director and Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Chaitanya Jalan, Full-time Director, and Mr. Rajesh Mundhra, Company Secretary and Vice President, Finance. Before we begin, may I remind you of the safe harbor. The management may be making some forward-looking statements that have to be understood in conjunction with the uncertainty and the risk the company faces. I shall now hand over the call to Mr. Lalit Kumar Khetan for opening remarks. Over to you, Lalit, sir.
Thank you, Raghu. Ladies and gentlemen, a very warm good evening, and welcome everyone present on the call. I hope you all have got an opportunity to go through our financial results and investor presentation, which have been uploaded on the stock exchanges as well as on the company's website. We are pleased to report that the company has delivered steady results for the fourth quarter and financial year ended FY 2024. Firstly, let me give you a brief into the latest trend in the global commercial vehicle market. The global CV market is expected to grow by 4% in volume and 6% in value from calendar year 2023 to calendar year 2029. This growth is primarily fueled by the expanding e-commerce sector, which is driving demand for light and medium duty vehicles.
Furthermore, the development of smart cities and infrastructure projects like highways will fuel the demand for heavy duty vehicles. India's CV market is experiencing exceptional growth, making it fastest growing CV market globally. Initiatives such as Make in India, National Electric Mobility Mission Plan, BS VI norms and Vehicle Scrappage Policy are set to further accelerate this growth. This policy not only encourage but also promote innovation and sustainability within the Indian CV market. Indian forging industry continues to be dominated by automotive sector, holding a commanding 62% market share in forged components. In terms of value, the automotive sector contribution stood at $3.6 billion in calendar year 2023, and is slated to reach to $5.4 billion in CY 2029, exhibiting a strong CAGR of 7%.
The overall market is projected to expand by 39 lakh metric tons by CY 2029, driven by increased demand from the automotive segment, supported by a growing working population and rising per capita income. Now let me highlight some key achievement our company has made in the last quarter. The company secured a significant contract worth $220 million, that's over a period of 10 years, that contract we will execute over a period of 10 years, making our entry to a new vertical within forging sector. The strategic move focus on supplying tier one customers in the light vehicle segment across North America, enhancing our global footprint and revenue stream. Furthermore, we obtained the board approval for commencing manufacturing and supply operations in Mexico, enhancing our operational capabilities and market reach.
We have also received a substantial order from prestigious Vande Bharat train set, valued at INR 270 crore. This order to be supplied to the BHEL-Titagarh Consortium , making a pivotal moment in our journey towards excellence in rail infrastructure development. Moreover, we remain committed to sustainability and corporate social responsibility. We continue to launch initiative to reduce our carbon footprint, promote diversity and inclusivity at work, and support local communities. Now, let's look at our financial performance for the quarter and year ended FY 2024. In Q4 FY 2024, we achieved a revenue of INR 886.20 crore on the standalone basis.
This revenue is down by INR 20.75 crore due to the Red Sea issue, otherwise, as the ships are stuck in the channel, otherwise revenue could have been higher by INR 20.75 crore in that quarter. Similarly, for the year, it's INR 3,489.6 crore, that could have been higher by that amount. However, this represents a year-on-year growth of 16%. Our EBITDA margin for Q4 stands at 22.7% as compared to 22.5% in Q4 FY 2023. The EBITDA expansion of 20 basis points is year on year. Similarly, our EBITDA margin for FY 2024 stands at 22.7% versus 22.3% in FY 2023.
We would like, also like to highlight that our export performance in Q4 is very good, and we have been able to achieve highest ever sales in exports in Q4 FY 2024. That which you can see in our presentation, that we have achieved INR 400 crore of export sales, which we never achieved in the history of RKFL. This level of export sales is very much sustainable in upcoming period. We are very confident of that. Lastly, our net profit after tax showed strong growth with INR 87.34 in Q4 FY 2024, which is a 31% year-on-year increase compared to 66.84 in Q4 FY 2023. For FY 2024, our net profit after tax stood at 326.1 crore, reflecting a 38% year-on-year growth from 235.6 crore in FY 2023.
At Ramkrishna Forgings, we are ready to seize this growth opportunity by leveraging our strength and innovation, operational excellence and strategic partnerships. We are confident in our ability to adapt, innovate, and create value for our stakeholders while making a positive impact on the industry and society. Thank you for your continued support and for joining us today. We will now take questions from the audience. Thanks. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask questions, you may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from question queue, you may press star two. Participants, I request to use hands up while asking the questions. Ladies and gentlemen, wait for the moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Mumuksh Mandlesha from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.
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The next question is from the line of Mitul Shah from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir, and thank you for the opportunity. First of all, congratulations for strong set of performance, and, thanks for very elaborate, presentation this time, giving all the details, including subsidiary-wise CapEx, et cetera. So my first question is on, is there any restructuring of the cost because raw material gross margin seems to be very different quarterly, and the entire cost seems to be shifted to other expenses. Is there any restructuring?
No, Mitul, there is no restructuring. If you look at this quarter, export percentage, export has gone substantially higher, and realization in the export is much more than the domestic market. And ratio has significantly improved from 63-37 to 58-42. That's why you can see this raw material number is looking like that, because the raw value is that. And that's the consequent result is on the other expenses, where it is mainly increased due to the Red Sea, the freight has increased, so we have got a INR 17 crore hit on the export expenses due to that.
So, in general, when export increase or export growth margins are much better, but other expenses on the export side are slightly higher, so EBITDA level, it is more or less maintained. Is it like that?
It's compensating, yeah, on the EBITDA level.
One more thing, just to add to that, Mitul, this quarter we have been hit by this Red Sea issues, and freight cost has been higher than natural. We had to pay some extra freight because of rerouting and all this, but that also has been added to the cost for that.
So, sir, can you quantify, approximate what would be that one-time impact of freight cost or Red Sea impact?
I think that's not a one-time cost right now, till we are already in discussion with our customers to realize some part of the freight. So I think this will rationalize by about 10%-15% going forward, but right now, until the discussions are concluded, we will see this kind of freight cost going forward until the Red Sea issue is resolved. So Red Sea impact is going to stay unless there's more stocks or there is some changes over there. So this impact, unless and otherwise customer is ready to pay the extra freight of it. Which we are very sure that we will be able to have some consideration from the customer to fill in the duty.
Okay, sir. Second question on average realization. In terms of domestic, quarter-on-quarter, there is an improvement. Exports have fallen despite currency being favorable, so any price rationalization or product mix or how one should look at that?
I think, exports, we have been almost at $35 in steel cost reduction from first January, has impacted the realization. The Indian steel market has not... Our, all the exports are tied up to the international steel market. So international commodity or international steel market on first January has declined by around $35. So that impact has been felt in the realization for that.
Okay. Sir, lastly, whatever you can give some outlook on the three of these subsidiaries recently merged with?
I think all the three subsidiaries right now, Multitech Auto, I think we have given in our presentation, details. Multitech is performing, I think better. You can see the margins have considerably improved. After we took over, I think almost, yea- on- year, if we say, there's a 200 basis point improvement in, margins in Multitech. And I think we are running the plant to full capacity, and we expect in the delivery Multitech, the market, the volumes to grow almost by 20% in the current, financial year. In terms of JMT, we are going to start production from this month onward. May onwards, we are partially starting production, and from July onwards, we are going to be in full production in JMT.
We expect this. I mean, anything between INR 100 crore-INR 150 crore top line from JMT in this full- year. ACIL is already started manufacturing, and I think in the last quarter also, we have around INR 7.5 crore at least from ACIL. This year, we are looking at almost INR 120 crore of sales from ACIL.
Sir, blended subsidiary margin of all this put together, I think it's around 15%?
At consolidated level, the margins which you see right now, we are expecting at least 150 basis points improvement in overall margin at the blended level.
From Q4 level?
Yes, Q4 level. 100-150 basis points improvement in margin for the forthcoming time.
Sir, thanks a lot and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mumuksh Mandlesha from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity, and thanks for detailed presentation. Sir, on the recent order wins in the PV segment on the Mexico plant and the North America 2 million order, can you share what will be the current revenues from the PV segment, and what is expected revenues from this new order wins over next two to three years? And can you share some thoughts on the profitability for the PV segment? Will it be different from the overall business, and particularly with the new Mexico plant, how do we view the profitability, sir?
So recent, this Mexico plant is not yet in operation. We have just located a space and everything. I think equipment and other things, Mumuksh , will take another four to five months' time. This year, we are expecting only INR 8-10 crore revenue from our Mexico plant. And following year, we are looking at substantial revenue to grow from Mexico plant operations. So right now, we can assess the visibility of that part. Going forward, I think we will be updating the investors quarter on quarter. In terms of our overall PV exposure, right now, PV is close to 2 or 2.5% passenger vehicles. We expect a double digit PV in next two years' time with the current order wins and the order wins which we have had.
Totally, I think going forward, we should look at a double-digit PV in next two years, sir.
Thank you, sir. On this Vande Bharat order of INR 270 crore, what is the timeline for this order? And also, will this be the fabrication capacity, which will be used for the servicing order?
So Vande Bharat order is to be, will be supplied by our, from our current capacity only. We are going to submit samples, first samples by October this year, and first batch serial production by December this year. Following this contract for INR 270 crore is valid for, is to be supplied within next two financial years. So it will be covered up to FY 2022.
Okay, sir. And just lastly, on the CapEx side, on the standalone basis, you plan to spend about INR 350 crore-INR 400 crore annually. What will be the breakup of the CapEx?
I could not understand. What is, what exactly you mean by breakup of CapEx?
Breakup, breakup, sir. What would be the breakup of the CapEx, sir? Will be the capacity expansion, the Mexico plant.
No, I think cumulatively, we are looking at around INR 400+ crores of CapEx this year. That includes standalone on the RKFL side, in terms of addition of capacities in the Mexico venture, as well as in the capacity in our brownfield activity in our current plant.
Thank you so much for this, sir.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Mr. Raghu Nandan from Nuvama Wealth Management. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. Congratulations on strong numbers. Sir, firstly, on the light vehicles, as you indicated, given the receipt of orders, you would look at the contribution of light vehicles, or passenger vehicles to increase in revenue. If you take a medium-term aspiration, how would you see the share of light vehicles going up? And also, if you can talk about whether it will have a similar kind of profitability.
The light vehicle in terms of overall revenue share, on the consolidated level, including Multitech and other places, we are looking at almost more than double digits in next two years' time. And I think in terms of profitability, we are looking at sustained profit, what we are doing right now in a similar band forward.
Got it, sir. Sir, in the near term, we have the cold forging capacity, which is likely to be operational in Q1 of FY 2025. The project is fully booked by orders. How do you see this ramp-up of order execution? Can we see the peak level of execution in FY 2026? And for this capacity, what would be the peak revenue?
... I think in terms of cold rolling, samples and other things are going to start going out from quarter two of this year. We expect quarter four onwards, 100% utilization to start from that facility. We are looking at full production or full utilization in FY 2026. And at peak, we are looking at almost INR 250 crore revenue from this.
INR 250 crore, sir?
Yes, sir.
Got it. That would be like a 2x gross asset turnover.
Right.
Thank you, sir. In terms of JMT Auto, you know, given that the forging division is starting in April and machining division in May, can you please indicate that in terms of discussions with the earlier customers of JMT, is this on track? How are you seeing the response of customers and, and, you know, your confidence level in terms of ramping up the utilization?
I think, we are very confident in terms of the overall, how JMT is shaping up. I think it has taken a little more time because of the deterioration in terms of equipment and, the infrastructure. But now almost everything is complete and are going to get completed in next, two months' time. And most of the customers have confirmed that, and, we have already started re-auditing, re-audited by the customers. So one by one, the audits have been lined up, and gradually we will see most of the customers who we want to come, to come back, is going to be back, by, I think October. So we are looking at almost, going back to, almost 80%+ utilization in FY 2026.
Got it, sir. Sir, with reference to the Vande Bharat order, congratulations on that prestigious order. In terms of the timeline, would it be, you know, roughly, is there clarity whether it will be a three-year, five-year? What could be the length of the order, sir?
No, this order is for next two years' time.
Okay.
What we, this is order is only for 32 sets, 32 train sets. But actual requirement is for 200 train sets. So after building the prototype, and supplying the proto and it gets validated, we feel that this 32 set opportunity is going to get converted to at least 100 to 150 train sets. So if that really happens true, we will be booked up to 2029.
Wonderful, sir. Wishing you all the best for that. And, you know, in terms of ACIL and MAPL, would it be possible to approximately indicate the revenue and margins for the quarter?
For the current quarter, Raghu, for 24, Q4?
Yes, sir. Q4, sir.
If you look at the MAPL, the INR 90 crore was the turnover for Q4, and the margin was somewhere around 16.5% on the EBITDA side. ACIL was just a small turnover of around INR 9 crore for the quarter, and I think the EBITDA margin was almost nil on this level, and it will improve once the scale-up happens on the EBITDA side.
Got it. Sir, like, the earlier indicated target of INR 125 crore for ACIL and INR 525 crore for MAPL, would you believe they are on track?
Yes, it's on track.
Wonderful. Sir, lastly, in terms of the quarterly result, you explained the realization improvement. In terms of other income, what led to the other income jump, sir?
So, Raghu, it's contained twoto three elements, other income. One is on account of foreign exchange and non-operating assets, so this can always come and go. But there is an interest income because we have the QIP and we have a fund, balance in Liquid Fund . So the entire fund could not utilize on time, and even you can see around the 31st March, we have INR 9 cash on the balance sheet. So going forward, this interest will go down, and similarly, finance cost will also go down. So these are the major two components for this other income.
Got it, sir. And, in terms of gross margin, it was a very strong number for the quarter, almost 54.3%. In terms of FY 2024, it was 51%, around that, and FY 2023 was 52%. Roughly, what would be the sustainable range you would say for the gross margin?
So, Raghu, it will be somewhere around only 50% kind of thing, maybe 1% here and there, so that is. We will try to further improve upon that. This quarter, 54% is only due to the increase in export-domestic ratio majorly. So if you look at the per ton EBITDA, that is almost similar to what we have in the last quarter, so little better than the last quarter. So this kind of EBITDA per ton margin is quite sustainable, and we will have all our endeavor to improve the margin further. There may be change in the gross margin depending upon the export-domestic mix. Okay? But going forward, we feel this export is sustainable, so export remains there.
If domestic also improves, which we are very confident of, so there will be little change in the margin on the non-auto side, in terms, in terms of towards 50% side.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much. I'll fall back to the queue.
... Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mitul Shah from DAM Capital. Please go ahead. Yes, Mr. Mitul, you go. Go for your question. We will move to the next. The next question is from the line of Sanket Sorak from an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for the opportunity. So I've been an investor with RKL for now almost eight years, and would really like to congratulate the management for expertly navigating the company through these trying times, and really appreciate your support, sir. Hello, am I audible?
Yeah, yeah. Thank you, Sanket. Please go ahead.
Yeah, yeah. So my question was, there was one of the announcements from your end that you had engaged leading management consulting firm for almost 18 months, right? So could you talk us through what would be the, you know, focus area where they are, you know, enabling or supporting the firm? And what has been the progress so far on that front?
So, Sanket, I don't think we can discuss much on that. The results you will see in the upcoming period about the improvement. We can't go into the specific, the areas they are working on. It's really difficult for us to divulge all those.
Okay. Okay, fair point. So, any update on the electric PV order that went on hold? Because they have these certain developments on the customer front, where they have talked about a certain realignment of their focus. So any further, you know, inputs you can share on that front?
Can you repeat your question?
Yeah. So there was a project from our largest PV player, which went on hold, right? Electric, largest PV electric player, which was announced, and then it went on hold. So any further updates on that front?
No, I think there is no update on that front. We will, inform the, in the course of the right opportunity.
Okay. Okay, and thanks once again, sir, for, and sharing the detailed presentation. Really helps a lot. I appreciate your support.
Thank you. A reminder to all participants, you may press star and one to ask question. The next question is from the line of Richa from Equitymaster. Please go ahead.
Sir, thank you for the opportunity. My question is related to the domestic and export mix. Where do you see this mix three years from now? And if you could also give some sense of the margins, because export margins are better. So on a gross margin basis, what kind of differential could be there between domestic and export?
I think in next three years horizon, we are looking at almost 50/50 in terms of export and domestic. And in terms of export, as it is higher margin and better realization opportunity for us, and with the mix changing and more stress on export, we expect at least 100 to 200 basis points margin improvement going forward.
Okay, and what is the differential between, you know, gross margins in domestic and export?
It's very difficult to tell because it is product to product. It differs. But, you know, just the export margin, export sales, it contains the element of sea freight also, so that's why it goes higher by that. Otherwise, it's 100-200 basis points more than the domestic margin.
Okay. And sir, what about your auto and non-auto mix, you know, similar timeline, two to three years down the line? And my understanding is that non-auto has better margins. So if you could just give a sense of the margin between auto and non-auto as well. Hello?
Hello?
Yeah. I'm not sure if my question was audible. I was asking the mix-
Yeah, yeah. So it's high, see, non-auto and auto, if you look at the current quarter number, we are at 77.1 auto versus a 77.9 last quarter. So there is again, an improvement in quarter-on-quarter in auto and non-auto. And it will continue. We have already seen that. We have also seen my auto and non-auto will be 70/30 is the first target, then 60/40 over a period of four to five years. So we stick to that guidance. And certainly, margin are better, and we have already given blended margin where we will be in the next four to five years, so we stick to the margin guidance also.
Okay. Okay, thank you and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chirag Jain from Yogya Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, I have a query. Sir, how are we looking at reducing our net debt?
You have already looked at, Chirag, 522 points, the net debt on the standalone side and 818 on the consolidated. And we have given a guidance for FY 2025 and 2026, which you are very much seeing in our presentation, if you have gone through the presentation.
Okay. So, we plan on that?
Yeah.
Okay. Sir, also, we have a high number of payable days. So do we pay something extra or for getting such a high line of credit?
No, it's not that. So you can... There will be extra, it will have impact on the margin. We do elongate our payables little bit, and it is in consonance with the style of operation company is doing, and so there is no such instance of we pay. We do, do not pay anything for that kind of credit.
Okay. Thanks. That's all from my side.
... Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sangeeta Purushottam from Cogito. Please go ahead.
Question actually related to the numbers put on slide number 28. Now, again, you have given the breakup of the growth in the domestic market and the export market. Now, it seems as if, you know, we're seeing some kind of a slowdown in the domestic market, and your growth driver has really been export. It would be very useful if you could just give us a sense as to how you see these two markets panning out over the next one to two years. And secondly, would it be fair to assume that your acquisitions will play a key role in driving your growth, also in the next one to two years? And what percentage of your growth can come from those?
No, I think in domestic market, the market has stabilized, and we will see growth going forward, and I think the market is looking good to me. So, and in the opening statement, Anish has already said that, in the coming year, we could see at least 10%-12% growth in the industry. So overall, we are looking at growth. And in terms of our acquisitions or, the company with whatever we have acquired over last one year, we, in terms of ACIL, we are looking at 15%-20% volume growth in terms of our consolidated.
Actually, as a combination, you should be doing about 15%-20% volume growth in the next year. That, that's your guidance?
Yes.
Okay. Sir, you have given in detail and, you know, all your CapEx amounts that are consolidated and level and subsidiary level, as well as the consolidated debt. Now, how is your working capital likely to move? And with that-
Right.
Yeah.
Yes, please carry on. Complete your question.
Yeah. So, your work... Would your, you know, if you add your working capital investments to this, then would they be, would you be able to bring down your consolidated debt as you have indicated?
Yes. So if you look at my working capital base, it is 85-90 days right now, net working capital, and it will remain in these levels only. And considering those levels of working capital requirement, we have given our guidance on consolidated debt in the positives.
Okay. Okay. All right. Okay, thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mumuksh Mandlesha from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you so much for the opportunity again. So in Q4 quarter, the domestic revenue saw a decline, both YOY and sequentially. What has led to the decline, sir?
Can you repeat your question, please?
Yeah. So the domestic revenue for this quarter has been a decline, sir, sequentially. Can you explain the reason why we saw a decline, sir?
So I think you are well aware that last quarter there was considerable slowdown, I think, in terms of commercial vehicles or the entire commercial vehicle, including LCV in domestic market, went through a considerable slowdown. I think we have done much ahead, and it is beyond Q4, we've grown basically the domestic market. While we have continued to maintain what we have done in the last quarter, and we feel that we have done much better than, I mean, on, on the, in terms of expected line, we have done much better.
Right. Sir, was there any impact of the inventory reduction at the OEM end, which impacted your volume?
Both inventory and as well as sales were affected of the OEMs, and you can very well see with the monthly numbers which came out for January, February and March. So obviously, that has impacted both in terms of their inventory cutdown as well as sales numbers. But we, I think we have done... We are very confident that we have done much better than the industry average. We will continue to strive for that.
Okay. Sir, you had mentioned about the freight cost impact for this quarter. Can you again re-quantify that amount, sir? What is the amount, sir, for this quarter?
Can you repeat your question? Freight cost.
Yeah, freight cost this quarter, which was impacted, what is the amount, sir?
This quarter it is higher by INR 17 crore from the previous quarter, 17.
17. Okay. Sir, you also mentioned about the Red Sea impact on the revenue side due to the shipments being delayed. What is that amount, sir, for the Q4 and the previous year?
We have already mentioned in the balance, INR 20+, INR 20+ crore is the impact, which we have not been recognized as sales because of the impact.
Okay, for this quarter.
Yes. Yes.
Thank you so much for the opportunity.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dhaval Shah from Girik Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello, sir. So what is the current gross asset turnover? And how do you see that changing over the next couple of years as our product mix changing within Auto and also other segments inching up, cold forging scaling up, plus oil OFS also coming in. So overall, there is as we move more towards a better value-added product over the next three-year period, how do you see this gross asset turn changing for the company? What is it currently?
I think, first of all, we don't take a three-month view.
Three, three years, sir. I said three years.
Three years?
... Can you provide him the numbers, please?
Yeah, so, well, we don't calculate the asset turn on the gross asset number. I think that's a misnomer, because assets are even 20-year-old and 30-year-old, and they have been fully depreciated. So how we can calculate that on the gross asset turnover? So that's why we take it on the net asset turnover, net asset value, right? You, you have very well seen it's a 1.9+ in the net asset, turnover. So we will continue with that. We don't believe in the gross asset, concept. Okay? And from here, we have already given guidance. We will be somewhere around 2.5-3 on net asset turnover in next two to three year time. That we have also, we have also said on our earnings calls.
Okay, up to 2.5-3.
Yeah.
Okay, okay. And, that will be mainly driven by which segment, if you can highlight, like, what will be the top? What is it where the huge change we are going to see? So if you can talk a bit about that.
So it will be a mix. As you now see, we have already given guidance on the auto, non-auto, how it's going to grow, how the growth will come 50%-20% on the, total overall the tonnage side. So as I think, it's very difficult to maintain on the what will be the futuristic, I say, sector-wise, and that we don't do.
Correct. Correct, correct. Okay, okay, okay. No problem. Helpful, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mitul Shah from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity again. But one clarification on cold forging side, that you indicated full ramp up in FY 2026, so that would be 25,000 tons?
Yeah, 25,000 tons will be the capacity for cold forging, yes.
You also highlighted revenues of around INR 200-225 crore kind of number. So that is translating into roughly INR 8 per kg kind of number. So that's why I'm surprised that from current level of 250 per kg for cold forging, is it like a nearly 4x type of revenue per kg?
Not at all. Not at all. What you are saying number of, so 25,000 tons is, can be, if we, we take it INR 200 per kg, it's INR 500 crore kind of revenue, where it is you have got the number of INR 900 crore.
No, no, sir, you highlighted the INR 200 crore full potential of that cold forging in the call earlier.
No, no, we have said, I think, Mitul, I think you wrongly understood. We have said INR 250 crore top line, we are going to get from cold forging... In the first, next year of operations.
Yeah, so that is what I'm asking, sir, for 25,000 tons, we'll get INR 250 crore. Is it like that?
No. INR 250 crore will be somewhere around 10,000-15,000 tons per annum.
Okay. So then there will not be full, 100% utilization, right?
Yeah. Ramp-up will not happen in one or two quarter or three quarter. It will take little time.
Understood, sir. And second, sir, just, if you can give more details on the export side for this quarter, let's say decent double-digit growth on Y-O-Y as well as sequential, whereas even in U.S. also, Class A truck numbers are not very great. So from where this growth is coming, is there any non-auto element in that major contributor or within, are we gaining some sizable shares or any geography-wise new additions?
I think there are new order. Last year's the order wins, whichever there have, have started showing results, and these are basically those orders which are getting converted to sales, and that is showing this kind of growth. And I think this, like Lalit has said in his opening statement, this growth is sustainable going into the current fiscal financial year.
Okay, sir. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Before we take the next question, a reminder to all the participants, you may press star and one to ask question. The next question is from the line of Shantanu Mantri from Think Investments. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Congratulations on, you know, very steady and consistent numbers. So my question is, mainly on exports. So I think for FY 2024, we've done around 59,000 tons, right? And, based on our current, you know, order backlog, what would be the most conservative, you know, growth, that we see here? I mean, for FY 2025, are we comfortable, doing 70,000 tons, based on whatever our current order backlog, which is like around 20% growth?
Shantanu, I would not like to put any definite number to it, but the company is aspiring to at least have a 15%-20% volume growth overall. And I think the mix for export to domestic is going to start changing every quarter. And I think we are looking at, at least this year, to have at least 200 basis points change in terms of the mix, in terms of increase in exports and reducing domestic, in terms of the overall balance sheet is concerned.
Got it. Got it. So when we are saying overall 15%-20% growth on a compound level, so that's like on a domestic level, if the industry is growing 10%-12%, ideally we should also be doing that, and then exports should be slightly better. Correct?
Yeah.
My overall understanding is correct, right?
Yes.
Okay, that's great, sir. That's it from me, sir. Thank you.
... Thank you. The next question is from the line of Raghu Nandan from Nuvama Wealth. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity again. Sir, in terms of efforts to diversify towards non-auto, last two years, we have seen the share increasing for railways, mining, earth, and construction equipment. In exports, we have seen for oil and gas going up. Trying to understand over the next three to five years, how do you see the share of non-auto increasing in overall share of revenue? And, you know-
I think, you know, in next three to five years, we are looking at almost 60-40, 60% automotive and 40% non-automotive. That company aspires to, and we are working very diligently to achieve this. And out of this, railway is going to be biggest element of growth going into next two to three years.
Got it, sir. Thanks so much for that. A related clarification on the investment into JV for railway. Compared to the last presentation, this presentation, the investment level is slightly higher over the next two years. I'm just trying to understand, was it a spillover of FY 2024 going to 2025, or is there any increase in investment happening there?
No, I think total investment earmarked is close to around INR 200 crores and anything between INR 210-INR 240 crores. So each year we are looking at INR 70 crores plus investment. So whatever has not been investment has been pulled over to this year. So I think Lalit can give you the exact number, what we have invested last year and what next two years we are looking at.
So, Raghu, that slightly, in, I mean, at a higher number because, we have little bit, added on the promoter contribution on the project's cost, project side and reduce the debt number little bit. For overall, project cost remains same. And last year there is a spillover, because if you look at the last presentation, there is a INR 8 crore spillover to the next year in terms of investment. So it's a mix of that. Mm-hmm.
Got it, sir. And so, like, in terms of the capacity, because the capacity is large, and apart from the government orders, even non-government orders, exports was a potential. Trying to understand if you can talk about your efforts there and who are the potential customers for these?
I think, Raghu, we would not like to spell out the names, but we can very confidently say that we, we at RKFL, RKTR, are not adding customers as of now because we feel that the market demand is very strong, and we can get much better realization than what we have got for railways. So we are waiting for the capacity to be up because we still have more than 1.5 years for the capacity to start. So we would, at the appropriate time, start an intake of orders. We would first start with the railway, which is going to be our first year's commitment, and then start onboarding new customers so that we can get a better realization than what we have got for railways.
Got it, sir. And this will be both, right? Better realization as well as bigger deals in terms of size.
Yes. It is mostly from North America and Europe. So Europe is smaller because it is more on the metro side, but North America is from the wagon and other places, so I think that is a bigger weight.
Got it, sir. So coming to ACIL, there is the proposal to add a six-cylinder crankshaft machining facility. Also, that additional forging of 20,000 metric tons, which can have a value as about INR 300 crore. So relating to that, whatever CapEx has to be incurred, is it already part of the subsidiary CapEx indicated, or is it over and above that?
No, it's part of that. Whatever we've indicated in subsidiary CapEx for the future, it is part of that already. So nothing beyond that we estimate.
Got it, sir. And, just the last question. In terms of standalone CapEx, I think compared to the earlier, presentation or estimate, there is a small increase in standalone CapEx. So anything to comment there?
No, not especially. So there are a lot of equipment we keep on adding, and it happens time to time, depending upon the customer's requirement. Due to that, this will happen.
Got it. Got it, sir. Just a clarification, how much would be the maintenance CapEx every year, sir?
It should be around INR 40 crore-INR 50 crore every year on the maintenance side.
Got it, sir. Very helpful, sir. Thank you so much, I'll fall back to the queue.
Thank you. A reminder to all participants, you may press star and one to ask question. As there are no further questions from the participants, I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you. I take this opportunity to thank everyone for joining the call. I hope we have been able to answer and address all your queries. For any further information, kindly get in touch with us or our investor relationship advisors. Thank you very much for sparing your time and joining our call. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of Nuvama Wealth Management, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.