Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Q1 FY 2024 results conference call of Ramkrishna Forgings Limited, hosted by Emkay Global Financial Services. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in a listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your touchtone phone. Just note, this conference call is being recorded. I hand the conference over to Mr. Chirag Jain from Emkay Global Financial Services. Thank you, over to you, sir.
Thank you, Bikram. Good evening, everyone. On behalf of Emkay Global, I would like to welcome you all to this earnings call of Ramkrishna Forgings Limited. Today, we have with us from the management team, Mr. Naresh Jalan, Managing Director; Mr. Lalit Khetan, Whole-Time Director and Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Chaitanya Jalan, Whole-Time Director; and Mr. Rajesh Mundhra, Company Secretary and Vice President, Finance. I shall now hand over the call to Mr. Lalit Khetan for his opening remarks, post which we will open the floor for the Q&A session. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Chirag. Dear all, on behalf of Ramkrishna Forgings, I would like to extend a warm welcome to everyone. I have along with me Mr. Naresh Jalan, our Managing Director, Mr. Chaitanya Jalan, Full-time Director, and Mr. Rajesh Mundhra, our Company Secretary. The company has worked hard and stayed determined during these ongoing global challenges. We are a flexible and successful organization that thrives on challenges, and we take advantage of opportunities that come our way, such as expanding our business, improving productivity, and making sure our customers are satisfied. We have become an important part of the global market, even though the world economy is little weak right now. The good news is that the things will get better with time. We are committed to gaining more customers and getting ready for the business growth when the market conditions improve.
We are also increasing our capacity to support this growth. As a company, we are prepared for the future. Over the past months, we've achieved significant milestones that have further solidified our position in the industry and propelled us towards greater success. I am pleased to announce that we have recently incorporated a new company, Titagarh Rail Wheels Limited, in collaboration with Titagarh Rail Systems Limited. This strategic partnership brings together the expertise and resource of both organizations, paving the way for new opportunities and accelerated growth in the sector. Our consortium with the TWL has signed a significant contract with the Ministry of Railways, Government of India, under the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative. This contract entails the supply of 4 million forged wheels, further solidifying our commitment to supporting the growth and modernization of the Indian railway sector.
We take immense pride in contributing to the development of our nation's infrastructure and being a part of this transformative initiative. The board has also approved acquisition of Multitech Auto Private Limited and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Mal Metalliks Private Limited. The company has a capacity to manufacture 21,600 metric ton Machined SG & CI Castings and bar draw facility of 6,000 metric ton per annum. This acquisition marks a significant step forward in the company's growth strategy and expanding its product line and fortifying its presence in the passenger vehicle, light commercial vehicle, and heavy commercial vehicle segment. During this quarter, the company has secured a prestigious order worth EUR 4.5 million from a prominent European railway passenger coach manufacturer. The achievement highlights the trust and confidence the global industry leaders place in our capabilities and products.
In addition to these, I am delighted to share that our company has commenced commercial production of 13,700 tons per annum of R A shaft press line and 10,100 tons for the 5” Upsetter . The significant expansion in our production capacity, totaling 23,800 ton per annum, will strengthen our ability to meet the increasing demand for high-quality forged components in the automotive industry. With this addition, our total production capacity now stands at 210,900 ton per annum, reaffirming our commitment to delivering excellence to our valued customers. We are also happy to witness a rise in demand for our products and services, resulting in substantial growth in both revenue and profits.
In Q1 FY 2024, we recorded revenue of INR 836 crore, approximately representing a year-on-year growth of 28%. Our EBITDA margin for Q1 FY 2024 is 22.4%, expanding by 35 basis points year-on-year. We are confident of sustaining and improving this margin. The net profit after tax was INR 77 crore for Q1 FY 2024, which is year-on-year growth of 63%. This is contributed by the lower tax rate also. We move forward, we remain committed to innovation, operational excellence, and customer satisfaction. We will continue to invest in advanced technology, enhance our manufacturing capabilities, and strengthen our relationship across the industry. With the foundation we have built and the achievements we have accomplished, I am confident that we will continue to excel and thrive in this dynamic and competitive market.
Thanks, and thanks for your continued support. That's all from my side.
Thank you, sir. Should we now open the floor for questions?
Yes.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on your touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. We will wait for a moment while the question to assemble. To ask question, please press star one now. We take our first question from the line of Mumuksh Mandlesha from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.
Congratulations on the good numbers, sir, thanks for giving the opportunity. Can you share the outlook for FY 2024 Ramkrishna, and also what would be the outlook for the India and U.S. CV industry? In terms of new orders, how do you see the ramp-up of the new orders? What could be the new orders that will be ramped up in the next two years, sir?
I think, Mr. Jalan is not on the call.
Hello? Hello, hello.
Yes.
Hello.
Yes, sir.
What we see as a market is extremely robust right now, within India as well as in North America. In terms of RKFL, we are extremely confident to exceed growth expectations, which we had set at the end of FY 2023 full year results. We are on track, and we are doing better than what we had guided for.
Got it, sir. Sir, how do you see the ramp-up of this new cold forging capacity, and which products it would cater in segment, sir?
The cold forging capacity is going to start generating revenue only next year, FY 2025. I think in the presentation also we have highlighted that this year, the by end, the cold forging facility is going to come up, and next year we have already received the firm order book for the entire capacity, but the revenues are going to be in place in FY 2025.
Any content to share what kind of a potential you're seeing from this new capacity?
No, we would not like to put a number to it, but this will be entirely to EV and PVs.
Okay. sir, can you guide, what would be the CapEx, expectations for the FY 2024 and 2025, and also the investments for the acquisitions, sir?
Sir, FY 2024, we are looking to have a CapEx around INR 300 crore-INR 350 crore. The acquisitions still are in the NCLT stage, so let it come, like JMT Auto and ACIL. As we have already given the guidance on what we would like to invest on that, but we are not commenting on that once let it come from NCLT first. On the Titagarh Rail Systems and TWL consortium, there we have a project cost of around INR 1,200 crore-INR 1,400 crore. Out of that 30% will come from the equity, and that has to be contributed over a period of three years by the each partner. one-third can be contributed each year by the each partner.
Got it, sir. And just on the JMT, as you expect very soon to happen, sir, any data to share on the revenue and profitability of this business, sir?
No, we would like to share the data only when after getting NCLT approval. I think, Indian Legal System, we do not have any clarity and in terms of timelines, so we have not built any term, any expectation in terms of what business and how much business we can do. We would comment only after we get the complete handover of the plant.
Got it, sir. just-
I'm sorry to interrupt, sir. Please come back to the question queue. Ladies and gentlemen, in the interest of time and fairness to all participants, kindly restrict questions to two per participant. If you still have more questions, please join the queue afresh. We take the next question from the line of Raghunandhan N L from Nuvama Research. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. Congratulations on great set of numbers. My first question is on Multitech acquisition. You have indicated in the presentation that additional revenue of INR 5 billion-6 billion can be contributed in the first two years. If you can give some color, whether what gives you the confidence for this kind of revenue visibility? On Multitech, if you can give some more detail, how is the existing profitability and debt position?
Yeah. Coming to the numbers, if you would like, to Multitech, there is a net, gross debt of around INR 45 crore as on date, and EBITDA margin is in the range of 14% right now, and the top line for FY 2023 is INR 300+ crore .
Correct, sir. Any, what gives that, you know, hope or visibility of that improved revenue potential? Any color you can add there?
No, I think, Raghunandan , this casting is going to be a complementary to what we have installed, in terms of, forging capabilities. I think our entire endeavor to buy casting was with the mindset of in next two years to get into a complete assembly, be a assembly supplier rather than being a, component supplier, getting into product platforms. Casting, manufacturing our own casting and assembling it with forging, we are going to enter two biggest markets of trailer axle and differentials. I think we are extremely confident that within next one year, we will be able to start productionizing, and we can go into full volumes in next two years in those two platforms, which are a growing market, going ahead.
Good to hear that, sir. Wishing you all the best. My second question, like, company had garnered order wins of about INR 7.7 billion, INR 770 crore in FY 2023. Can you roughly indicate how much of new orders will commence in FY 2024? Would it add, say, INR 150 crore-INR 200 crore additional revenue because of the new order?
Almost, I think, Raghunandhan it's going to be 40% of last year's what order wins. I think from second quarter onwards, you'll start seeing that in revenue. As you may have seen, some part has already started kicking in last quarter itself, and that's the reason we have been able to do better exports vis-a-vis year-on-year. Second, third, means for the next nine months, we see our exports growing much better than what we had expected because of most of these orders getting into, getting converted into supplies.
That's wonderful, sir. last thing on just the housekeeping part, export incentives, is on the higher side. Is it likely to sustain? Another housekeeping, other income is on higher side, whether it includes any one-off, like forex gain?
Yeah. Other income, you rightly said, it is on the basically loan liability for a national loan, forex loan. There is a gain. That's why Other income is on the higher side, that's depend upon the foreign exchange demand. Rest, other gains or you can say export incentive, that will be sustainable.
In terms of forex gain, that is only, I think, to the tune of INR 3 crores. Not the entire INR 3 crores. INR 3 crore rupees and not the INR 3 crores. INR 3 crore rupees is only the foreign exchange gain in the...
Other income.
Got it, sir. Just a clarification here. Export incentive, as a percentage also looks higher. When you say it is sustainable, if you can throw some light there.
Just a moment. Let me go through that. I'll be calling.
Generally, if I look at last two quarters, export incentive is in the range of INR 6 crore-INR 7 crore per quarter. This quarter, it's about INR 13 crore. Is there a change in rate or something like that?
No, Raghunandhan, that's that what you are looking at, INR 12 crore number, that includes other income of INR 4 crore something. Okay?
Okay. And- Got it. Got it. That will be elevated. Got it, okay. Thank you so much for the clarification. I'll come back in the queue.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, kindly restrict questions, two per participant. We take the next question from the line of Garvit Goyal from Nvest Research. Please go ahead.
Hello. Good evening, sir. Am I audible?
Yes, you are audible.
My question is on the margin side. In last three years, we did a decent improvement in our delta margin due to operating leverage, and now we are focusing on warm forging and as you mentioned in the recent presentation in cold forging as well, which is obviously a high margin thing. Plus, you are also saying the JV will give you the similar margin. So my question is: considering all these factors, can we assume the OPM percentage will see upward traction from here, like this 20% kind of margin will be a base margin for the company going forward?
Yes, these margins which are there is going to be sustained. We are looking at. Our aspirations are to go into much better margin trajectory. At least 50- 100 basis points you will see keep on changing year-on-year basis.
Understood, sir. Sir, we are entering into the railway part, like, this new company that we are getting to. We are planning to cater railway as an industry going forward. My question is on the battery realization side, like, working capital days, how it will shape up with this kind of project we are taking?
I think in terms of railways, payment is much better than what we are doing right now. 98% or 95% of the payment comes within seven days of receipt of material in the railways. In terms of debtor days, I think it is much going to be much lower than what it is currently being at a standalone basis in RKFL. In the railway business, the debtors are going to, I mean, working capital is not going to get stucked up in the system in terms of debtors in the long run.
Sir, you mentioned volume growth of 15%-20% last quarter. Now you are saying, it may exceed, right? What kind of number you will like to put on?
I am not saying that we will exceed. I am saying we are extremely confident of achieving and bettering that number of what we had guided in the full year call.
Understood, sir. One last question on this CV industry, like, in this particular quarter, in India CV industry, year-on-year, there is a muted growth of 3%. How do you see this particular thing, like, going forward, this particular year?
I am not basically tracking the what industry is growing at. I am tracking what RKL is growing at, and we are extremely confident to better our overall growth numbers of 15%-20% volume growth for coming four years. With the capacity getting augmented continuously, and with the new generation of forging which is coming in, we will continue to add new segments, new components, which will aid growth much better than what industry is doing. That's the reason we are not dependent much on what a percentage term industry is going, but if industry remains stable, we will be able to do much better than what we have guided for.
How many years will you see the stability of these growth numbers, 15%-20%?
I think basically what vision or what plan, business plan we are working to is for next three years' time.
Understood. Thank you very much, sir, and all the best for you.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from line of Dhaval Shah from Girik Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello, hello, team. Great set of numbers. A couple of questions. Firstly, sir, on this acquisition, if you could give us more details regarding this. You know, how are the financial metrics with regards to the asset turn and the working capital? How is it for this set of products? Secondly, what sort of synergies can we have with this acquisition? I was just going to the website, so it also mentions Ramkrishna as their client. I mean, if you can tell us the synergy and the 14% EBITDA margins were reported, you know, can it be improved further? Yeah, these are my first two questions.
I think, in terms of margin, we are extremely confident in next two years to significantly improve the margins with on standalone basis in Multitech. I think at least 200- 250 basis points improvement in next two years in terms of margin on a standalone basis. A synergy, basically, with the acquisition of casting and with the acquisition of Multitech, now we are almost, except the sheet metal, and tires and engine, we are available across all platforms in any vehicle which is moving on road. With, like you have seen in the slide, that, RKFL is one of their customers, so we use their component to make some assemblies which we have already started.
Now we can aim with this casting to get into much bigger product platforms, which can be highly EPS accretive for RKFL on a standalone basis going forward in next two years. I think in our presentation, we have already shown two different platforms in coming future, which we will be launching within RKFL's purview with the support of Multitech's casting. I think that's going to be a big game changer going forward for RKFL.
Interesting. What do they do in railways? Is there a larger product segment for them, or it's purely a trailer only?
No, it's a small product segment for them in railways. Railway requires quite a good amount of castings also. Basically, with this, now we can go to a customer and offer them entire gamut of components or product assemblies which are required in forgings and castings by a customer to manufacture a vehicle.
Okay. Sir, this company also has a 100% subsidiary, while mentioning, you always mention standalone number of INR 300 crore. I think the subsidiary also has significant amount of revenue. What is the size of the subsidiary and what is that into?
I think this INR 300 crores revenue captures the subsidiary revenue. We have just knocked off inter- related party transactions between the two companies. This is the revenue which is including outside sales, except the related party transaction is INR 300 crores.
Okay, okay. Mal Metalliks is included into it?
Yes. Everything is included, consolidated, INR 300 crore, with close to on 14% margin is the current, operational. Their asset turn is close to around 1:3.
1 : 3, asset turn. Working capital?
Working capital is around 60 days. Net working capital is around 60 days.
60 days. Okay. Okay, thank you. I will come back into it. Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Abhishek from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Congratulations on strong set of challenging times, sir. Despite a weak chemistry domestic elective volume, with volume remained strong in this quarter. Is it because of the new business wins, winning the domestic market?
I think, Abhishek, both in terms of new order wins as well as new product launches, which we have done over in this quarter. I think for us, I don't know from where this slowdown or weak market is right now coming from. We see we are going into Q2 with a very strong demand scenario, and we expect the full year to be extremely strong in terms of our own manufacturing is concerned.
As you may see, our experience, I mean, the volumes are riding around 10%-10% volume growth in the MHCV segment. Most probably that to you outperform the industry growth because of the new businesses?
Yes, we will continue to do that. I think, like I answered the previous call, we stick to our guidance, and we can confidently say that we will be doing better than what we have guided for.
Can you explain that, what can be the growth rate in domestic versus export in FY 2024?
Can you repeat your question?
Sir, what would be the growth rate in the domestic versus export in FY 2024, or what can be the mix?
We basically mix should be on the same 60/40 or 60%- 38% here and there. We continue to look at 60/40 domestic and exports market as. Both the sectors are doing extremely well for us. We continue to do that right now.
You have mentioned that total CapEx will be around INR 300 billion-350 billion in FY 2024, which is including the CapEx for this railway projects?
No, no. What we have said, INR 300 crore-INR 350 crore is for the CapEx, what in the RKFL is doing. Whatever the investment, that will be separate.
Okay. Most probably that you will go for the equity dilutions, because of this.
There is no question of any equity dilution. We see operational cash to be deployed prudently into the system to basically augment capacity, create new investments, and create new opportunities. There is no equity dilution, even in thought process in coming days, coming months, or coming year.
Thank you, sir. That's all from my side.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Mitul Shah from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Sir, congratulations on a very strong performance, and thank you for opportunity. First question is on raw material side, as raw material already started pulling off. When we look at your raw material per ton basis, there is a increase of 3% on a sequential basis, 3.3%. Can you explain this? On the production side, also similarly, when we look at your production number versus your sales volume, there is a huge difference. For example, your segmental segment volume number is 38,000, which is more or less flat compared to last quarter. Your production is significantly down from 48,000 to 44,000. Can you clarify these two things, sir?
In terms of production, I think, first seven to 10 days in the month of April, we do annual maintenance of most of our presses. As well as you are aware that due to extreme heat during month of April and May, until mid of June, ultimately, labor fatigue or this heat, there was a production disruption or slowdown in terms of production is concerned. I think 42,000 out turns, which we have achieved, is extremely good as per our achievement, we can say. In terms of sales, I think that the floating inventory is always there, and that's we are trying to debottleneck so that whatever we produce, we can 100% sell.
In terms of iron prices, we don't, I don't, I don't know from where you have got the 3% number of raw material cooling, I mean, raw material prices dropping. Yes, when we see the television or the news channels, yes, we see that steel prices have gone down, but we are determined. We are basically buying steel at customer-directed suppliers and cost. Basically, we have not seen any decline in alloy steel market till now. If and when it comes, you'll automatically see the reflection in our balance sheet also, as the steel price decline.
Sir, your price has gone up. That is what I'm clarifying, that price is for the steel-
Basically, the price of steel has gone up because of nic- alloys. Nickel, moly, whatever we use, they are basically alloy element pricing, which may have increased at that period of time.
Understood. Second question on a long-term basis, when we highlighted for non-auto segment contribution to reach to 30% overall in next two years, but now this acquisition again entirely from the auto side, so further it will reduce our non-auto contribution below 20% or maybe close to 12%, 15%. What would be roadmap or strategy going forward?
I think the roadmap in terms of getting into 30% non-auto business is intact, and we will be able to achieve that on a standalone basis of RKFL. In terms of acquisition or investment which we have made into this, it is basically getting into new platforms and new businesses of product lines, rather than being a component supplier. You need to look at both the things in a separate way. In terms of RKFL, who are only today, one of the leading players in making forgings and components, we are targeting to get into non-auto, auto, and we will achieve this figure of 30-70 mix. Addition of Multitech will give us also bigger volumes in terms of reaching the product line category, which we were never at.
We will be able to get into the B2C market of making our own products and branding at RKFL's brand name and selling this into the market.
Yes, sir. Thanks. Lastly, sir, out of all these ACIL, JMT, as well as this recent Multitech, any of these companies has any meaningful non-auto contribution at present, or in a shorter period, can we do some ramp up there for non-auto side?
JMT has a very meaningful non-auto presence, but we will be able to comment only when JMT comes in... Multitech has only 5% - 7% non-auto segment. But opportunities of supplying castings to railways and other off-highway and other applications are huge. Probably the management bandwidth of the company we acquired are not that big to go into those markets. With our own expertise and market, obviously, we will be targeting that market. I think overall, we are very confident that we will be able to stick to our guidance of 70/30 non-auto and auto business.
Thanks and all the best, sir.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from line of Andrey Purushottam from Cogito Advisors. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, this is Sangeeta Purushottam, Andrey's partner. I just wanted to ask you about your plans to reduce debt to zero, which is what you had guided earlier, by, I think, 2025 or 2026. In the presentation, I noticed that the guidance now is that you're, you know, you plan to bring it down to 1 : 1, debt-to-EBITDA. Are you now willing to live with higher levels of debt? Has the thinking changed a little there? Could you just elaborate, please?
Ma'am, I think, you are going backdated. When we were raising equity, we had thought that one year back when we were in round for a QIP, we at that period of time, we were looking at raising, equity and paying off the debt and being a net debt zero company. With the operations doing extremely well since last six to seven quarters, and with the free cash flow which we have in system, we want to grow the business rather than diluting equity. That's the reason our presentation states, and we have been repeatedly since last several quarters in our call also has said the company targets by FY 2025 end to be debt-to-EBITDA 1 : 1. We are not looking at a higher debt. Basically, we are looking at a lower debt.
We used to, with that, have more than 1: 2.8, 1 : 3 debt EBITDA. We have already got debt-to-EBITDA 1 : 1.55. We are looking at the next couple of quarters or, say, six quarters from now, seven quarters from now, to get the debt-to-EBITDA 1 : 1. Obviously, we are looking at debt reductions with the growth we have also in mind.
Right. Right. Okay, sir. No, because I remember asking the same question actually about three or four quarters ago, I think. At that time, you had said that your internal cash flows would be sufficient to pay down debt and, you know, your target was to bring it down to zero. Now I'm assuming that you are willing to just reinvest that in the business and you're comfortable with keeping some debt on the books, right? That's what's.
Ma'am, four quarters or five quarters that you are quoting, we exactly have said that, but we have said that we will not then reinvest money into the company. We will generate enough cash to pay back the debt. Still, if you see, if we are generating that kind of cash, and if we do not augment fresh capacity, and we keep the growth stable as where it is now, obviously we will have enough money to pay off the debt.
Right.
I think we would rather want to grow the company, grow the balance sheet.
Yeah.
rather than being a debt zero company.
Right. Right. Okay. In terms of your average interest cost, what would it be right now?
It's around 8%, ma'am. 8% per annum.
Okay. Is that likely to remain the same, or any chances of it coming down?
Interest rate has peaked out. It will not go up from here, and we see there may be marginal corrections going forward, maybe in next two, three quarters.
Okay. Are there any rating changes expected or?
Rating was changed in the month of February.
Okay.
I think the reason now when after three or one or two more quarters.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. A reminder to participants, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your touchtone phone now. We take the next question from the line of Darshil Jhaveri from Crown Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hi, sir. Good evening, and congratulations on a great set of results. I think most of my questions have been answered, so I just have a few basic questions. Are new acquisitions, being consolidated by what time? When will the acquisition be through of Multitech?
Multitech acquisition, SPA has already been signed today. The change of equity and handover of the organization is going to happen by month end. We can expect at least 8 months of consolidation in this year.
Q2 will have revenue of Multitech is, what we can expect.
Yes.
Okay, that's great to know, sir. I will also want to ask, any risks that you see, you know, that can be roadblocks to our, you know, path to growth, any risks that you could see?
I am extremely optimistic, and with the market performing so well for us, I don't see any risk unless there is a sudden change in the government or policies of the government. Ultimately, we are all going to get affected, unless global situation remains what it is today, we don't see any risk to it.
Okay, that's great to hear, sir. Also on the new journey with railway, how would the timeline work? Like, how would we allocate capital and where will we start our production? Could you give some rough?
I think Lalit has already given the figure that we will be funding this project, 30% equity and 70% debt. Out of the 30%, the 50% contribution we will need to bring that in next three years' time. We are looking at to start production by FY 20- calendar year 2026, mid we start, we hope to start the production of first batch for approval.
Oh, okay. Great, sir. Thank you. That answers all my questions, so all the best for future queries.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Simar from Negen Capital Services . Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, good evening, and thank you for taking up my question. The expansion into the warm forging capabilities looks promising. Can you provide me more insights into the product mix, along with that, the customer segments that are targeted for this new capability? When do you anticipate reaching optimal utilization, if that might also be?
The warm forging facility, which we have augmented, is catering to basically differential parts, differential gear parts only, and the main segments right now, we have already started bulk product supplies to commercial vehicles. We have already started submitting samples in the tractor industry and also in the PV industry. We look at targeting all the three industries, and I think we are right now at almost around 25% utilization in this capacity. I think by the fourth quarter of this year, we should be around 50%, and next year we are looking at to run it in a full volume.
Okay. How, how much would, how much you expect them to contribute to the revenue growth and the margins in the near term?
I think more than revenue, we are looking at margins from this, and I think, in terms of tonnage, I think it is very difficult to say, because the warm forging because the market, we are catering from CVs to passenger vehicle, so there is a different tonnage. It is all about number of pieces we can sell, and we are looking at basically extremely high margins from this. That, I think, will start showing in our balance sheet from third and fourth quarter of this year.
All right. Thank you, wish you continued success and growth in the future. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Chirag from White Pine. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. Sir, congratulations for the set of numbers and the very good presentation, sir. I have actually three questions. First, a slightly broader one on the management bandwidth. How are you looking to address? Because when I look at your presentation over the last four years, you have entered into many new products, added new segments, and once the acquisition happens, furthermore, addition of segments will happen. Between traditional business and new businesses, how are you managing your people strength, and what are you doing?
Every business comes with people only. I think, RKFL is a thoroughly professional-run company with our entire leadership team within the organization, which handles each and every segment and every portfolio independently. Obviously, every platform is man-manned by a leadership team. I don't think there is any leader people challenge. I think, people are there in the business, and they are growing as the business grows.
Sir, if you have to look at from a five-year perspective, between this traditional forging business that we have, plus when I say traditional, the fresh business that we have, and including the cold and warm forging from that, plus the railway and the other non-auto piece. How should we look at the broader picture of the, or what you aspire to have it over a five-year view, between all these four, five pieces that we have? I'm including the acquisitions that are yet to happen.
Chirag, we are looking at growing in terms of 15%-20% volume year-on-year, continuously for next three to four years' time. The visibility and the landscape we have created for ourselves, we are very confident to have 15%-20% volume growth. For this, I think in terms of capital, in terms of equipment, in terms of people, I think we are on it, and we have completely laid out roadmap to achieve those targets.
Sir, okay, last question, just a clarification on this cold and warm forging. This 25,000 tons that you have mentioned in the presentation is the additional capacity, right? We already had some cold forging capacity up and running.
No, no, we did not. We have zero cold forging capability right now. We have warm forging capability right now. We are installing a cold forging capability, for which we have already received complete sold-out order for seven years, which will start operations from FY 2025, first quarter.
Okay, sir. Sir, one last question, if I can squeeze in, and, if on this differential business, or the differential business that you're referring to, is more about differential axle side of the business, or you're looking to differential assemblies for passenger vehicle, differential gear assemblies for passenger...
We are looking for differential for not only for passenger vehicle, we are looking for commercial vehicle, we are looking for even electric vehicles. All the three segments, we are going to have our own product line in next two years' time.
why we're asking is traditionally in the ICE category, differential assembly business is done in-house, and in EVs.
With the coming days, everybody is offloading everything outside and want to have only assemblies.
Wow! Even in ICE, you are expecting this change, and I presume this is more domestic driven for next 12, 18 months, or it's?
Both export and domestic driven, it will be.
Okay. Sir, thank you, and all the best.
Thank you. A reminder to participants, if you wish to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your touchtone phone now. Take the next question from the line of Koushik Mohan from Ashika Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Congratulations for the good set of numbers. I have a very specific question. In the Q1, in your presentation that you have mentioned that railway has increased their revenue contribution, which comes out to be 3.2%. With the visibility of wheel segment division, and some more divisions of railway segment, what do you think, as a total revenue, what can be the percentage of this segment can be?
I think railway should be doing anything between 4%-4.5% in this year on a full year basis.
My second question is on the, what kind of margins that you have it in the wheel segment with the new business?
I think it is too early for me to comment on the wheel business. We will go with the tire, I think let us first establish the plant. We are still negotiating for the equipments. We are still negotiating for the. Every detailing is going on, so it is right now not prudent for me to comment on profitability of the plant. I can only tell you that this plant, in two years of operation, will be a better positive, I think we are looking at a five-year payback for the entire investment we make from the wheel plants.
Okay. Thanks. Thanks for that. The last and final question, sir. I just wanted to understand, what kind of, volume growth that you're expecting for the full year basis from today?
Like, can you repeat your question, please?
What kind of volume growth that we are expecting for the year?
I think we are looking at at least 15%-20% minimum volume growth this year from our current operations.
Okay. Okay. This is a minimum set, right, sir?
Yes.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Priyum Daga from VT Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for taking my question. My question was regarding the new acquisition in Multitech Auto Private Limited. The company did a turnover of around INR 3 million crores in FY 2023, and we are paying around INR 205 crores for 100% equity. My question was regarding why are the promoters willing to sell the company at a price which is around 0.7 x? I mean, that's quite cheap. What is the thought process behind the promoter of that company, selling it to us?
I think you should go and ask if the promoters of that company, how can I tell you what is there in the mind of the promoter of that company, why he is selling at that price? How can I comment on that? We know that we have done a good deal, obviously I cannot say what is running through the promoter's mind and why he is selling it at that, this price.
Yeah, like I said.
I can only tell you that I have bought a good asset at a good price, and it is going to be value accretive for me and my investors in RKFL, but I cannot comment on why and why, what makes the promoter of Multitech sell the company.
Right. The valuation is quite attractive. Hence, the question. Yeah, that was the question. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Chirag from White Pines. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity again. Sir, I had a question on on one of the acquisition that you indicated, TSUYO. It seems to be more on the motor than controllers. Sir, any thought process why you are looking at that space? Because that seems to be a crowded space in general.
No, no, I am not looking at that space. I am looking at, to be a consolidator at EV. Motor, controllers, differential, and e-axle, these are the complete platforms in next two years. Rationale behind buying TSUYO, we have already given in our earnings call previously. Basically, it is only a starting, stepping stone into a bigger platform of supplying complete differential e-axle and motorized controllers. We are not looking at just motorized controller in an isolated form. This is one of the platforms we have entered to make us bigger space in EV, to supply this entire set of platforms, which makes our, overall exposure into EV in a bigger way.
Again, the focus of this entity would be more domestic, at least in the initial three, five years?
Yes, yes. Initially, for three years it is domestic.
The focus is domestic. This, this is great. And one last question, if I can. The journey from component to assembly, are there any changes in the, in the business model, the way you approach the customer, and the approval processes? How much time it will take, if you can elaborate on that, because it's.
No.
it can have a significant impact on your, on your positioning with that particular OEM, where you're able to make this journey.
I think, whatever platforms we are entering, it's a non-OEM business of. That tire actually is a non-OEM business. Differential, we are working with OEM to supply them the differential assembly. We are not looking at being a competitor to the OEM. We are looking to work with the OEM to get into a bigger platform stage.
No, because they must be doing that, right? Like, already somebody...
OEMs are not manufacturing, trailer.
I think the assembly, OEM may be acquiring via an assembly model already, right?
No. Axle is a B2C business, done independently with the people who make trailer bodies.
Okay. That is a wide space available that nobody's focusing right now. That's how you are looking into it?
That's not an OEM business, that's a B2C business. We are a highly profitable business. We are wanting to enter in a big way in this B2C business.
By when do you think all the pieces will fall in place for you as you are-
We think we are looking to get approvals for this or say, there is a system of approval of the axle. We expect by March the approval to be in place. Next year to start hitting the markets with our own production. Full volume will take at least two years' time before we reach peak volumes in this.
This will be more domestic driven?
Yes, it is mostly domestic driven.
Domestic driven. Okay. Yes, sir, you were saying something, sorry.
Basically, this is basically what I wanted to say, that this is a business, non-OEM business, a B2C business, and it's a brand play, and I think we are extremely confident that brand RKFL or brand Ramkrishna is doing extremely well right now in the commercial vehicle industry. We will be able to garner at least 15%-20% market share in next two to three years.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much and all the best.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Garvit Goyal from Nvest Research. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thanks for the opportunity again. Sir, just a clarification, kind of, like, we did PAT of INR 78 here, in this quarter. Are we able or are we confident to maintain this run rate going in next three quarters?
I'm not able to understand your question, please.
I was talking about the run rate of PAT, like we did INR 78 crore in this quarter, so can we maintain at least this run rate in next three quarters?
I think our tax rate.
Yeah.
Lalit can comment on it exactly.
No. Coming to the, I think you're asking about the PAT run rates. The PAT run rate is certainly going to improve from here on, because we have given a guidance on the volume growth. When there will be a volume growth, certainly there will be improvement in overall EBITDA and the PBT margin, and it will have impact on the PAT itself. It's not going to remain here, I think it will improve from here on.
Okay. Okay. Thank you, sir. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question- and- answer session. I would now like to hand the conference back over to the management for closing comments. Over to you, gentlemen.
Thank you. We take this opportunity to thank everyone for joining the call. We wish all a very happy weekend, and we hope that we have been able to address all your queries. For any further information or assistance, you can get in touch with us or our investor relations advisors. Thank you very much for joining the call.
Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Emkay Global Financial Services, that concludes this conference. Thanks for joining with us. You may now disconnect your lines.