Good day and welcome to the Ramkrishna Forgings Limited Results Conference Call hosted by ICICI Securities. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference, please signal an operator by dialing star and then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. B asudeb Banerjee from ICICI Securities. Thank you and over to you, sir.
Thanks. Thanks to all participants. Good evening all. Thanks to management of Ramkrishna Forgings for giving us the opportunity to host the Q3 FY 2023 post result call. Company is represented by top management in the form of Mr. Naresh Jalan, Managing Director, Mr. Lalit Khetan, Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Rajesh Mundhra, Company Secretary and VP Finance. Over to the management of Ramkrishna Forgings for their initial comments. Post that we'll take Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Mr. Banerjee. Ladies and gentlemen, good evening and a very warm welcome to everyone present on the call. I wish you all a very happy new year from the entire Ramkrishna Forgings team. I have with me Mr. Naresh Jalan, our Managing Director, Mr. Rajesh Mundhra, our Company Secretary, as well as our Investor Relations team from Orient Capital. I hope you all have got an opportunity to go through our financial results and investor presentation, which has been uploaded on the stock exchange as well as on the company's website. I am pleased to report that our company has had a strong Q3 and nine-month FY 2023. The commercial vehicle segment has been seen steady growth following the festive season due to high utilization of fleets resulting from increased economic and infrastructure activity.
The momentum is expected to continue and overall commercial vehicle market is predicted to remain strong, driven by an increase in economic activity and government's emphasis on infrastructure and education. We are also proud to announce that this quarter we have won three orders worth INR 366 crore from North America and Europe. Out of these, one order is for supply of EV components which demonstrate our confidence in EV space. The demand from these countries has been increasing, and we aim to grow our export by 15%-20% in this year. North America will continue to do well, and the increasing imports from Europe will continue to give us more opportunities to participate.
In line with the industry, we have seen an increase in demand as well for our products, which has led to significant growth in our revenue and profits. In Q3, we have recorded a revenue of INR 752.30 crore, which represents a year-on-year growth of 24%. Nine months FY 2023, we recorded a revenue of INR 2,165.60 crore, which represents a year-on-year growth of 35%. EBITDA margin for the quarter stands at 22.10% versus previous quarter of 22.30%. Our net profit after tax for the quarter is INR 57.567 crore, which is a year-on-year growth of 27.6%.
Our net profit after tax is INR 168.77 crore for nine months ended FY 2023, which is a year-on-year growth of 40.8%. To diversify our product portfolio, we have continuously taken steps to increase our diversification and to strengthen our foothold in EV space, we have acquired 51% stake in TSUYO Manufacturing. This will significantly improve our capabilities and expand our market share in evolving EV segment. Our recent plan to acquire JMT Auto has got approval from the Committee of Creditors, which is subject to obtaining the necessary approval from the NCLT, New Delhi. The strong performance is a reflection of the diligence and commitment of our team, as well as the continued support of our customers and stakeholders.
We remain committed to delivering high quality products, enhancing our content per vehicle, providing superior services to the customers, and we are confident that we will continue to see growth in the future. Thank you for your continued support and for joining us today. We are now ready to take questions from the audience. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Ladies and gentlemen, if you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset while asking a question. We will now wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Sanjay Dam from Old Capital Bridge. From, sorry, from Old Bridge Capital. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Congratulations, Mr. Khetan, Mr. Jalan, Mr. Mundra, and team with the wonderful performance. I just wanted one clarification. In slide 21 of your presentation, you stated that you're adding 36,300 ton capacity, which will be ready by September 2023. With this capacity, you will be able to achieve a top line of INR 5,000 crore at current commodity price. Just wanted to reconfirm that because if I look at the trailing 12 month revenue, we've done about INR 3,000 crores of revenue. You are saying that with this increase, we'll be able to do INR 5,000 crores. Is that correct?
Yes, that's correct.
Yes. Perfect. Perfect. Broadly, I think, this quarter is also very significant because we ended up with the highest ever EBITDA per ton sold of... I think it would be in excess of INR 58,000 a ton. Going by that yardstick, when we do hit that INR 5,000 crore of top line, that should... If we are able to improve the EBITDA because of better mix, higher content, et cetera, that would be a welcome change. If we even maintain that, we are looking at a broad kind of, you know, EBITDA of about, broadly about, I think, INR 2,900 crore.
I think, Sanjay, it is very difficult for me to give you EBITDA number.
Yes. Yeah, I understand, sir. I was just seeing that whatever you have.
Overall, whatever we have said in the presentation is that with the addition of the 56,000 tons of capacity, we will be near around 2 35,000 - 2 40,000 tons capacity, which is good enough in the value add. The way we are improving our value add per and content per vehicle and as well as non-auto segments are getting added, we feel that we will be able to touch INR 5,000 crore of revenue. That we are confident of that and depending on the current commodity pricing, how it moves during the year. In terms of EBITDA, it is very difficult to say right now what is going to be the EBITDA for it.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Irrespective of whatever the, you know, whichever way the commodity moves, that can move your top line for sure. EBITDA per ton should be defendable, right?
Yes. We will be able to maintain our margins what it currently is.
Yeah. I mean, yes, yes. Okay. That's a good answer. The second is, you know, if you could, now when you get the NCLT approval for JMT Auto capacity, what is the capital allocation that would be required there? You had-
We have already given in our presentation. The cost of acquisition has been INR 125 crores for us. Out of it, INR 70 crores is being paid upfront and balance is going to be paid over next four years. We will deploy further INR 50 crores of capital in this byway to do CapEx in the organization and as well as the working capital.
What do you expect out of this capacity, sir?
It is a mix of forging and casting capacity with value-add. I think, if we go by the historical numbers, what JMT Auto had published, being a listed company, I think, at that period, with the commodity pricing, what was prevailing at that time, they did a peak, top line of close to INR 375 crores. I think, with those numbers and with the current commodity pricing, we feel that once we are able to get the plant up and running, we should be able to do anything between INR 450-INR 500 crores top line from that.
Yes, that you should be. Broadly, what is the timeline you sense?
We sense. We don't know the legal time, what is going to be taken in terms of handing over the plant. Once we get the plant, I think it will take us approximately 18-20 months to get the plant up and running and in full production.
Perfect. Perfect. That's all from my side. Wish you all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mumuksh Mandlesha from Emkay Global. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you so much for the opportunity, sir. Sir, you mentioned that exports are expected to grow 15%-20% for next year. Can you share, what would lead to the growth, while the underlying market may be flattish, sir?
In terms of exports, we feel that, the amount of new customers we have added and whatever orders are there in pipeline and whatever contracts we have won in this year, which will get into production in the coming year, as well as the new geographies which have been added, will result in at least 15%-20% improvement in our exports.
It's mainly market share gains and new products should drive the growth, right, sir?
I cannot comment on market share gain. We are gaining new customers, new geographies are getting added. That is what I Exactly, I cannot comment on market share gain because these are all new products for us and new geographies. We don't know what is the market right now there. Basically, with the commitments received from the OEMs or the customers, we can safely say that we should be growing around 15%-20% next coming year.
Right, sir. On EVs, which are the EV specific components company is working on, and what are the plans of investments for the EV products? Also, can you talk about the recent investments, TSUYO, what kind of revenue potential and investments are you planning, sir?
I think I will answer your question in two parts. One, Lalit will take up in terms of TSUYO. In terms of our current capacity, we are mainly working with our current OEMs for e-axle, as well as differential and motor shafts. These are the few components wherein we are working with our current customers from the current capacities for supplying EV components. In terms of TSUYO, I think Lalit can update you on that more.
Yes. From the TSUYO, see, we have, we will do the investment in phases. In over five years it will be done, around INR 100 crore investment will be done in TSUYO. We are there we making product like, motor, controller, differential and e-axle, complete e-axle. That is the product line we are looking at. Further, we are looking at high wattage motors, but that will be go to the higher vehicles. That's on the TSUYO.
Got it, sir. Sir, this quarter, non-auto segments like mining and railways have done very well. What led to the growth, sir?
Basically, we in our previous calls also we have said railway is a segment which will continuously grow, and I think it is just the start of the growth right now. You will see every quarter the railway will keep on adding in terms of percentage and absolute sales as well as the earth moving equipment side.
Right. Possible to share the targets for the railways and for next year?
No, as I think next year is too early for us. We will wait till the full year is getting completed, but, for current quarter, which is going on, we can safely say that we will do much better than third quarter which has ended.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much for the opportunity, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dhaval Shah from Girik Capital. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah. Hello, am I audible?
Yes, you are audible. Go ahead.
Hello team. Great set of results. First question is for the third quarter, if you look at the geography mix, the revenue share from Asia is now 90%, while North America is down to 2%. What is this change, you know, where is this sudden big change in this geography mixes happened, if you can elaborate on that. Second question will be our quarter-on-quarter finance cost is slightly up. You know, some clarification on that as well. These are my two questions.
No, in terms of geographical mix, I think, North America is 71%, Asia is, sorry, Asia is 71%, Europe is 12% and 17% is North America. North America from 21% is down to 17%, but that's basically down only because of in terms of absolute numbers, it is not down. But in terms of increase in balance sheet, we had in our earlier calls also indicated that Europe is going to grow first and also as customers added in the Asia Pacific are also going to start showing traction. That's the reason, North America sales looks to be down in nine months balance sheet.
Okay, I'll take this offline. No problem. Yeah, on the interest cost?
Yeah. Dhaval, on the interest cost, see, because they, in the last nine months, there has been almost 250 basis points rise in the interest rate by the RBI, and there has been a lot of raise, almost 450 basis points rise by the Fed. Sorry, 225 basis points raised by the Fed also. What has happened is, all interest reset has come out in the month of September and October for us in the long-term bond. They just impacted us in this quarter little bit, and that's why this interest cost gone up. Working capital cost is constantly going up due to that.
Okay. sir, what is the working capital, as on, as on today? How much is the working capital days?
Working capital days right now, I can say that it has reduced little bit from the last quarter, maybe 5 to 7 days, but almost near to the half, what was in the half year.
Okay. Okay. Okay, okay. So our debt is now INR 1,287. By 31st March, how will this number look?
We look to reduce another INR 50 crore by 31st March.
Okay, okay. Okay. Thank you, sir.
Yeah.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, you may press star and one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Abhishek from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead, sir.
Thanks for opportunity, and congrats for strong set of numbers. Sir, just wanted to know what is the outlook for the Class 8 trucks and fourth quarter domestic MHCV volume.
I think, for classic trucks, we see this market to remain strong, and I think, with the same levels, I think what we ended year 2022. I think 2022, 2023 also will be same. I don't think the industry is going to grow for what it has been in 2022, but it's going to remain flattish in calendar year 2023. In term of MHSV, we see lot of traction in the domestic industry, and I think, domestic industry is doing really well as we speak right now.
As you are targeting around 15%-20% growth in export market, so what kind of the growth you are targeting in the North America and Europe?
No, we will not be able to give growth, geographically right now. I think in overall exports, we should be doing close to 15%-20% higher exports. It will come basically through new segments, new components as well as the new geographies which have been added in. Already most of the announcements have been made by us as we continue to win new orders.
Okay. What is the overall volume growth target you have for FY 2024, sir?
FY 2024 is quite early for us to say anything, but, I think you'll need to wait for the full year for getting FY 2024 targets.
In exports you mentioned that, 15%-20% growth. What kind of the growth we can see in the domestic market?
Domestic market is extremely strong as we speak right now.
Okay.
I think we will need to wait for the full year to get completed. Exports we can safely say because the calendar year, they work on calendar year and it has ended on December 2022, and we have already got projections for this full year from our export clients.
Okay. Sir, in realization terms, we have seen a 5% decline in this quarter just because of the fall in the freight cost or fall in the commodity prices?
Mainly because of the fall in commodity prices.
Okay. As the steel prices corrected 50, 20%-25% in last six months, so we'll see the further decline, because of this?
I don't know exactly from where you have got this 22%-35% steel decline. I'll not be able to comment on this. As we speak, we have got close to INR 8-INR 10 kg price reduction, and that is already reflecting in our export sales.
I was talking about the Indian steel sector that was, that has gone down a bit.
No, we have not seen any steel prices decline in India in automotive steel.
Okay. Sir, in this quarter, employee expenses has gone down. Is there any layoffs?
No, there has been no layoffs.
It is mainly due to the last quarter it was bonus and the increment impact was there, so it is now normalized. Next quarter it will be at this level only.
Okay. My last question is related with the tax rate. What will be the effective tax rate for FY 2023 and 2024?
Recording.
FY 2023 we are in the highest tax bracket, and we hope in the next year we will move to 22%+ or charge tax bracket.
This year it will be around 32%, right?
Yeah, yeah.
Thank you, sir. That's all from my side.
Thank you. We have the next question from Mahek Talati from Yellow Jersey Investment Advisors. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Thank you for the opportunity. I wanted to ask that, steel prices have come down by 40%, so what is the realization and margins you are expecting?
Ma'am, I really don't know from where the figure of steel prices have come. To the previous question, I've already said for us steel prices in domestic industry has not corrected, and it is still the same what was there in previous quarters.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ask a question, you may press star and one on your touch-tone phones. The next question is from Mitul Shah from Reliance Securities. Please go ahead.
Sir, thank you for opportunity and congratulations on good state of performance across all the parameters. Sir, first question is on export incentives, which is sizable around INR 60-INR 63 crore during the quarter, whereas QoQ export revenue is flat, but these incentives jump up more than 21%. Just want to understand how it is. Is any spillover of the previous quarter or it is linked with the geography related or product-to-product variation? Can you give some-
Mitul, just like to correct you, this is INR 6 crore, not 6.60.
That's what, 60?
INR 6 crore. That is on the entire exports. Okay? That comes out to only 2%. That includes duty drawback and road tax. Duty drawback is 1.6% and road tax is 0.7%.
Okay. The second question is on non-auto side. That we are talking a lot about this railway part, but other non-auto like mining, earth moving, farm equipment is contributing more than 8% of the revenue now. Can you give more details here within this segment, how much or would be farm equipment, how much would be mining or earth moving or what is the approximate bifurcation?
No, I think it is difficult, Mitul, to give you a bifurcation within this 8%. Overall, company looks at our non-auto segment has grown, and we will continue to grow, I think, in the coming quarters also in the non-segment. Both railways and mining and earth moving and farm equipments are continuing to show traction, and we expect in coming quarters this to significantly scale up further.
Sir, any qualitative aspect in terms of, this within this farm equipment or earthmoving, what could be major or maybe in terms of growth-wise could be higher than the other segments?
I think, all the three segments are doing extremely well, so I cannot put a specific data to any particular segment. All the three segments are doing extremely well, and we feel that this is right now going to be a qualitative, say, percentage in terms of the overall balance sheet.
Sir, lastly, on oil and gas side, what is our development? Earlier we were trying to gain market share from the giant competitor. What is status there, sir?
No, we are already doing extremely well, over 0.9% in the last year, full year. We have done close to 1.6% in nine months. I think this is going to further grow to close to 2% - 2.5% of the entire balance sheet.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have the next question from the line of Deepak Poddar from Sapphire Capital. Please go ahead, sir.
Hello.
Yes, sir, you are audible. You can go ahead.
Yes. Thank you very much, sir, for the opportunity. Sir, you mentioned with this new capacity, our revenue potential can be INR 5,000 crores, right? That is what we are trying to achieve by maybe FY 2025. That would be a fair thing to assume, right?
Yes. We are trying to achieve that by FY 2025.
That effectively means a CAGR of 26%, 25%, 26% over the next two years, right? I mean, the that's what we are looking at.
Yes. Company basically is visualizing or company basically earnest desire of the management is to touch those figures.
Mm-hmm.
Probably we will be able to throw much more light into it when we end this year and when we start, are able to give you a full year guidance in the full year results.
Okay, fair enough. Now, I mean, when we are at about INR 5,000 crores kind of a top line, currently you did mention that this 22% kind of EBITDA margin is a sustainable kind of thing, right? Given our gross margin is 55%, so ideally that effectively means we would get operating leverage advantage when we reach maybe INR 5,000 crores of top line, right? There should be upside risk to this margins maybe over the next two years.
No, I don't think there is a risk to the margins.
Risk?
Like I said in my previous answer also.
Mm-hmm.
-that we want and we are committed to maintaining these margins of 22%+.
Mm-hmm.
as we continue to grow. With whatever current horizon, what we look at in terms of order book or in terms of commodity, we feel confident that we'll be able to maintain the same.
Risk in the sense I was, kind of, indicating the upside potential because of the leverage rate.
Obviously, we continue to desire to go hit the upside in terms of profitability.
Mm-hmm.
We can commit to maintaining the margins.
Fair enough.
Whatever comes will always be in the investor domain.
Fair enough. My last question is regarding the debt levels. I mean, you have mentioned in the past that we look to become net debt-free by FY 25, right? I mean, currently what we have about INR 1,400 crores of debt.
No, no, I think you are wrong. I think our debt is below INR 1,300 crores, right? INR 1,280 crores.
86.
We have already, if you see, significantly around INR 300 crores of debt reduction in nine months we have done.
That's good. Yeah.
We expect to another INR 50 crore reduce in this quarter. It is a continuous process. We are on the job to reduce debt.
Okay. Okay, net debt-free is what FY 2025, 2026 is that the timeline?
Yes. We still maintain the targets of being a net debt-free by FY 2025-2026.
Okay. Okay. Yeah, that's it from my side, sir. All the very best. Thank you.
Okay.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Viral Shah from ENAM Holdings. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you for the opportunity, sir. Sir, my first question was on the debt number of this INR 1,286 crores. Can you just clarify, does this include the bill discounting number also? What is the number of bill discounting?
Yeah, it includes the bill discounting number also. All the bill discounting has been included in the debt, whichever, which are on, yes.
Okay. What would that number be, if you could share that?
That's around-
Around-
Tata Motors bill discounting, I think, Viral, that's INR 95 crores.
INR 95 crores. Okay. Okay. Thank you. Sir, secondly, on the CapEx, I want to understand, sir, what is the kind of CapEx outflow that should, that will happen in FY 2023 and 2024 both?
We have already...
Yes, please.
Lalit, you can continue.
Yeah. We have already communicated that INR 250 crore will be the outflow, the CapEx plan for the FY 2023. We stick to our CapEx plan of INR 250 crore. For next year, it will be in the range of INR 150 crore-INR 200 crore.
Okay. Okay. This INR 250 plus INR 150 will include the maintenance CapEx also, right?
Yes. Yes.
Okay. Okay. This INR 56,000 crores of, sorry, 56,000 tonnes of additional capacity
Could you just throw some more light? Is this similar to the presses that we have or will these be newer presses? What kind of products will these do? Something of that sort.
No, basically in 56,000 tons, Viral whatever capacity is getting added is basically in cold and warm forging. Mostly I would not like to disclose the parts or what components we are. Basically, it is a new generation cold and warm forging.
Got it. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, you may press star and one on your touchtone phones. We have the next question from the line of Mr. Dhaval Shah from Girik Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Sir, the EBITDA per kilo is slightly lower in the third quarter compared to the last quarter. Is this due to some product mix change?
No, there is no product mix change. Basically, prices of commodities have gone down in the export market and the domestic steel price is yet to pass on those reductions.
Okay. Okay. Okay. You reduced your selling price, but not your... but you haven't got the benefit from that.
Yes. Yes. We are still negotiating with the steel plants.
Okay. That generally happens in April and October, right?
No, no. Every quarter it happens. It is delayed right now. We are expecting it to happen anytime.
Okay. What is the quantum of reduction you expect?
No, I think we cannot put a number to that right now.
Okay. This, assuming the last quarter number as a number for FY 2023, like around INR 50-INR 53 a kilo, when you, over next 2-3 year period, how will this number, grow year-over-year?
I think it's very difficult to estimate.
Okay.
It's very difficult to estimate.
Okay. No problem. Okay, fine, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abhishek from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
How much CapEx would be required for this 56, 7 tons capacity?
Abhishek, we have said that we are already going to INR 54 CapEx in this year. This is an ongoing CapEx. The entire capacity will be up in next year. Another INR 154 will be required to complete this CapEx, and that will be it.
I'm asking what the total CapEx that would be required for the new capacity thing. It would be around in the range of INR 2.75 billion-INR 3 billion what you mentioned.
Total capacity for this CapEx, what we are doing is around INR 250 crores-INR 300 crores.
Okay. this year, CapEx, you would be able to do around INR 1.2 billion-INR 1.5 billion CapEx as a part of the CapEx.
Could not get you. Could not get you, Abhishek. Can you repeat?
This year CapEx for the new capacity would be around $1.5 billion.
Not billion. I think, 154 I should say. INR 250 crores for current year and next year, we are projecting close to INR 150-INR 200 crores.
Okay. How much is the forex gain or losses in this quarter, sir?
This quarter forex gain is around INR 11 crore.
Sir, from last two quarters you are gaining, in the last quarters you had gained around INR 12 crore, this quarter also INR 11 crore. What is the reason of this sort of the forex gain?
That's the basically basic currency fluctuation. If you look at the last quarter, dollar closed at INR 81 .38 , and this quarter it ended at INR 82.73. Whatever is the unhedged data, that has been restated with the margin. Plus we do some amount of hedging. There we also make gains.
Okay. That is coming into the other income?
No, that is part of realization.
Okay, part of realization. My last question on the inventory in the export market, how much current inventory is lying in Europe and U.S.?
That's we don't have the exact number right now. How much we have there in the warehouse and where. We can come back on that. We can check offline that.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Shashank Kanodia from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Just wanted to check for the CapEx outlay for next year. It doesn't include the amount for JMT Auto as well as ACIL, right?
No, no. It does not include any acquisition.
Okay. sir, potentially if you have to fill both the acquisitions, what could be the cash outflow for next year on both the front?
It will be around INR 85 crore for ACIL and INR 70 crore for JMT Auto.
Another INR 150 or INR 160 odd crores, right?
Yeah, yeah.
Okay. sir, doesn't this, is a degradation from a capital healthy strategy wherein, you know, our intent was to primarily reduce debt for next three years, still you are going for acquisition as well as organic growth, CapEx part?
I think, in terms of debt reduction, we are continuously doing a debt reduction. Nine months close to INR 300 crores of debt has been reduced. That does not mean we will not grow the company. The whatever cash accruals are there on the book, it is being deployed for repaying debt as well as doing the new capacity addition. These are the growth engines where we will be there and that is not been taken into our portfolio. They will be the self-sustaining company, and they will be able to service the debt taken to acquire investment in these companies. There will be no load on the RKFL balance sheet in terms of debt for service.
Okay. Sir, lastly, you have been maintaining that we'll maintain a 22%+ kind of a margin profile. On EBITDA per ton basis, in last three quarters we've been able to maintain the INR 50 to a kg kind of a run rate. This is kind of sustainable, right? Given the fact that we are doing more of value-added and incremental know not to business.
We don't calculate EBITDA per ton because we are not a steel company, so we don't calculate in that form. We're not able to comment on that.
Sure. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your touch-tone phones now. We will move to the next question from Chirag Shah from Nuvama. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, my question was on this new capacity that is coming up, the 56,000 ton. If you can help us understand that realization from there, say, on per ton basis or per kg basis should be similar to what it is, that we have or it would be slightly better given that it's a new technology or new form of forging that you are having. Second question is... Yes, you can answer, I'll ask second later.
Chirag, I think, with this cold and warm forging coming in, I think obviously these are near-net shape components, so this will be better realization components. This, most of these capacities will be going to for exports. I, we expect and we analyze that these are going to be very high remunerating and high realization items.
Okay. By that presumption, we can assume that at least per, it's not in terms of margin, but on per ton basis profitability would be better than what it is currently, right? Margin profile can be different given that you are in the... You may also do stabilization and, you know, bringing the plant up to the mark curve.
Over, basically with the capacity utilization improving in this cold and warm forging as the capacity starts performing, we are expecting because of, near net shape components and new technology being put up and low manpower cost, in this, we expect the margins to be much better than what it is currently.
Okay. Sir, in your assessment, by when do you expect that this capacity can achieve optimal utilization? It will take two years?
It will take one and a half years. Almost one and a half years.
One and a half or two and a half?
One and a half.
Suppose you start somewhere in Q2 or Q3, from there around in one and a half to two years we can assume a kind of full utilization.
Achievable, yes.
56,000 is achievable capacity, right, sir?
Yes, it is achievable capacity.
Thank you. Thank you very much and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rucheeta from iWealth. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. A very good evening.
Excuse me. Sorry to interrupt, Ms. Rucheeta. The line for you is very low. We cannot hear you very clearly. If you could speak closer to the mic.
Yeah. Now is it better?
Yes, much better. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good evening, sir. My question was on the general and other manufacturing expenses which has spiked up in this quarter, even but though if we look at QoQ, the sales are kind of flattish. What is the reason for this spike in your other manufacturing expenses?
The other manufacturing expenses are almost similar to what you have seen in the last quarter. I don't think there is any spike in other manufacturing expenses.
There is, sir. Last quarter it was around INR 144 crore, which has gone to INR 175 crore in this quarter.
No, it remains at INR 144 crore only. I think you are looking the standalone result or, I'm consolidated?
Okay. You're looking console number, you're comparing with the?
Standalone.
standalone numbers.
No, sir.
Consolidated number is also INR 146 crores. INR 146, yeah, in the both the quarters. Correct.
Okay, sir. My mistake. Sorry. Other person's answer.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, once again, a reminder to all those who wish to ask a question, you may press star and one on your touch-tone phones. We will take the next question from the line of Raghunandhan N L from Emkay Global. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. Sir, my first question is, company has been doing well increasing presence in auto, EV and non-auto segments. Can you indicate how you look at, a medium-term kind of a revenue share, or how you would aspire to have the revenue share over medium term between these three segments?
Company aspires to have a premix of 70% auto and 30% non-auto. I think what we are looking in next, maybe, 6-7 quarters to achieve those numbers.
Within auto, how do you see the EV business shaping up, sir? You've been taking several efforts there.
EV business in standalone RKFL basis, we are looking at close to around 3% - 3.5% of our total revenue from auto coming from EV, which is right now 2%. We are looking at doubling this in next over 12 months time.
Thank you. There are several orders, that company has won and execution is yet to commence. In FY 2024, what kind of revenue addition is expected due to new orders?
No, this guidance of 15%-20% jump in exports, in next years basically is with this new order books, new order wins and new components.
Got it, sir. Including domestic exports, would it be fair to say that INR 400 crore kind of revenue addition can happen next year because of new orders?
I will not put any number to it. Basically, 15%-20% is what we are looking in terms of exports right now. For domestic, I think you'll need to wait for the full year results to come in.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much. All the best.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, you may press star and one. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you have questions to ask, you may press star and one.
The next question is from the line of Chirag Shah from Nuvama.
Maybe just one small question on EV side. If you can elaborate over the next 2-3 years, how do you look that portfolio shaping up? What segments you are looking? Which regions you are looking at, that could, the revenue that will come in from what segments, what and which regions?
We are basically working with all our customers in EV, it's a passenger vehicle side as well as in pickup trucks and SUVs. It is in North America, it is in Europe and in India right now we are working in. We are looking at close to around, maybe 5% of our overall balance sheet in next two years, from the auto side to be contributed from EV and all these geographies.
Okay. Any specific preference for geographies based on your understanding, your level of discussion? It would be domestic or it would be more export oriented?
I think, more it's going to grow on the export side.
Okay. Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kashish Sambhwani from Negen Capital PMS. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for taking my question. Firstly, I wanted to understand what is the maintenance CapEx for us in manufacturing?
Maintenance CapEx inc, including dyes and everything is around INR 50-IRN 55 crore.
50 - 55. Okay.
Yeah.
Okay. For the top-line guidance that you have given, do we also include JMT numbers in that? Because that will also be consolidated eventually.
No, I think JMT is quite early for us to emit comment in terms of revenue. We'll wait till the NCLT process is done with.
Okay. We have been doing pretty well in the last many quarters that's been coming down. I want to understand what is the key risk which you envisage which can derail our growth plans in the medium term?
As an entrepreneur, we do not visualize or we do not think of what can derail our growth plan. We as an entrepreneur, we always look at opportunities to grow and I don't have plan B to understand why we can derail our plans.
No, sir. We as investors are also equally optimistic like you, but I wanted to understand what are the key risks in our business?
No, I think I would like to give it a pass. I wouldn't like to comment on it.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dhaval Shah from Girik Capital. Please go ahead, sir.
Yes, sir. Sir, given the fourth, you know, exposure to India and generally fourth quarter is the peak quarter in terms of the, you know, overall, you know, the CapEx spend, would you know, our volumes in the fourth quarter would be flat quarter-on-quarter or would we see an increase? Any guidance would you like to share?
No, I think, it is pretty early for us to share any guidance, and I think, we only can say that we are doing extremely well, and we will continue to do extremely well in current or coming quarters.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Mitul Shah from Reliance. Please go ahead, sir.
Sir, thank you for giving opportunity again. Sir, can you share LCV contribution currently?
Sir, right now I think, I don't have that figure. I'll ask Rajesh to forward you that in offline.
Okay. The second thing-
Simple
In, one of the presentations at slide number 14.
Oh.
We have given various component that is front axle, engine, suspension, et cetera. How much would be engine right now?
It is 0.9% of the balance sheet automotive exposure.
0.9 only.
Yes.
Oh, okay. Sir, last, just a confirmation. Current capacity around 1,90,000, and this additional would be 56,000. Close to 2,50,000 tons capacity, we will be able to reach to INR 5,000 crore. Is it right or we are including any other?
No, we are not including anything else. 250,000, 250,000 approximate as the tonnage to reach the goal of 5,000.
Okay, sir. Thank you. Thanks a lot and all the best.
Thank you. We have Sanjay Dam from Old Bridge Capital with the next question. Please go ahead, sir.
Sir, thank you so much. In the latest quarter, we did about, 25% of our volumes was export. Broadly in the previous two quarters also it's been similar, I think, 32%, 36% and, thereabout. Next year, the volume, mix would also, the exports, do you see in similar lines?
I think we are looking at, Sanjay, growth in exports in... If you see vis-à-vis last year, we have grown in exports overall. Last full year, I probably don't have the figures right now, but we have done close to INR 900 crores of exports. This year, if you see in, first nine month itself, we are in, near to that.
Yeah, yeah. No, sir, I was saying that, in the mix of your, sales next year-
Mm.
Would exports remain similar at around 35%?
Yes. We are looking at 35%-40% exports.
In volume terms.
To continue. In terms of volume and in terms of top line.
No, no. Sir, top line, your exports are value-wise, value-wise exports are much more than the.
No, sir. Sir, yes, that is there, but it's close to 40% overall exports.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. Got it. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, you may press star and one to ask a question. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments. Over to you, sir.
I take this opportunity to thank everyone for joining the call. I hope we have been able to address all your queries. For any further information, you can get in touch with us or with our investor relations advisor. We wish you all a very happy weekend. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of ICICI Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.