Ramkrishna Forgings Limited (NSE:RKFORGE)
India flag India · Delayed Price · Currency is INR
619.40
+9.15 (1.50%)
May 11, 2026, 3:30 PM IST
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Q2 22/23

Oct 27, 2022

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q2 FY23 earnings conference call of Ramkrishna Forgings Limited, hosted by ICICI Securities. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Pratit Vajani from ICICI Securities. Thank you, and over to you.

Pratit Vajani
Equity Investment Professional, ICICI Securities

Thank you, Sashari. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Q2 FY23 results conference call for Ramkrishna Forgings Limited. From the management, we have Mr. Naresh Jalan, Managing Director; Mr. Chaitanya Jalan, Whole Time Director; Mr. Lalit Khetan, Executive Director and CFO; and Mr. Rajesh Mundhra, Company Secretary and VP Finance. Now I would like to invite Mr. Lalit Khetan for his opening remarks. Over to you, sir.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Good evening. A very warm welcome to everyone present on the call, and we wish you all a very happy Diwali and New Year from the entire Ramkrishna Forgings team. We hope and pray for the safety, health, and security of you and your loved ones. Along with me, I have Mr. Naresh Jalan, our Managing Director; Mr. Chaitanya Jalan, Whole Time Director; and Mr. Rajesh Mundhra, our Company Secretary. I hope you all have received our investor presentation by now. For those who have not, you can view it on the stock exchanges and the company website. I will briefly speak about the business landscape and update you on our performance in the preceding quarter, following which we will be happy to respond to your queries. Before delving into the company's performance this quarter, I would like to provide some context on the industry.

The Indian auto and auto ancillary industries have faced numerous headwinds in the last 2-3 years. From managing emission and safety-related regulatory changes, followed by COVID-19, to semiconductor supply shortages and the most recent steel commodity inflation, the auto industry has seen it all. During the COVID period, the China Plus One theme gained traction, with several OEMs around the world considering and acting on diversifying component sourcing away from China. This began with the United States imposing tariffs and trade barriers on China, with Indian OEMs and auto ancillary companies benefiting from this progress. Because of India's low manufacturing costs, scale of vehicle production, and the maturity of its auto ancillary industry, companies like ours are gaining from it as we have the capacity to meet such demand.

Furthermore, the ongoing festive season, as well as adequate rainfall across the majority of the country, will save the industry in the coming months. Infrastructure and real estate are expected to boost this industry, as are e-commerce, transportation, and logistics, which are critical to the economy. As a result, there is a lot of optimism about the growth, and OEMs are very bullish. Our conversations with customers have been encouraging, which gives us hope for the future. Our international business has sustained traction over the last few quarters, with new business orders flowing in at a steady pace. A strong order backlog from Europe and the United States and a healthy recovery for new truck orders in recent months bode well for us, and we expect our export revenue to grow by more than 15% in FY 2023 compared to last fiscal year.

I would now like to highlight some business enhancements. As we are all aware of our long-awaited acquisition of ACIL, we expect it to be completed this fiscal year if we receive favorable results in the next 1-2 months from the Supreme Court. Our business in electric vehicles has shown good traction, and we expect it to form 3%-4% of total revenue in the near future. Our railway business has also shown good development, and we are confident that it will contribute more than 4% of total revenue, which at present is only 2%. Coming to our business operations front, our revenue increased by 32% in Q2 FY 2023 over Q2 FY 2022 on the back of robust and diverse business. Our EBITDA margins for the quarter were 22.3%, and for H1 were 22.2%.

During the quarter, we increased our capacity utilization by 300 basis points to 82% in Q2 FY 2023 from 79% in Q2 FY 2022, while the sequential improvement was 400 basis points. Such revenue growth and stable margins have been aided by an improved product mix and easing supply chain constraints despite high commodity prices. We are confident that by improving capacity utilization, we will be able to deliver similar results in the second half of the year, resulting in higher operating leverage and margin expansions. We have received five orders amounting to INR 408.5 crore in the first six months of FY 2023, and we are confident that we will receive additional orders in the second half of the year due to a strong pipeline and positive business visibility.

We are making concerted efforts to diversify our product portfolio and geography by introducing value-added products across the board. During the quarter, we received approval for a fundraise via preferential allotment of convertible warrants of INR 94 crore, the majority of which will be used for reduction of debt. We are adhering to our capital allocation policy in order to reduce debt, and our gross debt position as of September 30, 2022, is INR 1,319 crore, down from INR 1,577 crore as of March 31, 2022. Our target to become a net debt-free company by FY 2022 remains intact.

Also, as per the policy on the dividend front, the board of directors has declared a second interim dividend of INR 50 per equity share, INR 0.50 per equity share of face value of INR 2. That is all from my side. We can now open the floor for questions and answers.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We have our first question from the line of T.S. Vijayasarathy from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.

TS Vijayasarathy
Analyst, Anand Rathi

Good evening, sir. Thanks for this opportunity. So we've seen very strong sequential growth in revenue to the extent of 17%, comparing Q1 FY 2023 versus Q2. Now, out of this, 11% has been due to realization, so we had strong growth. Why did we experience a 300 basis point gross margin fall between the same quarters? Could you please help us understand? That's my first question. I mean, the realizations of export realizations would have also been very good. So given this, why have gross margins fallen sequentially?

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

You're talking about the year-on-year margins, correct?

TS Vijayasarathy
Analyst, Anand Rathi

I'm talking of sequential margins, sir. Q1 FY 2023 versus Q2 FY 2023.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

If you're looking at the consolidated number, it has gone down a little bit. If you look at the standalone, it has gone up.

TS Vijayasarathy
Analyst, Anand Rathi

Yes, I'm referring to the consolidated number.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Yes, the consolidated number is a little bit lower because there has also been a substitution. There has been a little bit of traction on profitability on account of performance, but that's also marginal. If you look at the full-year half-year number, it's 22.2%, and for the quarter, it's 22.3% for the standalone. The consolidated number is in the range of 21.5%. For last year, there was no consolidated number. It's only because of very little performance, and whatever our standalone performance was, that was the consolidated performance, and that was in the 24% range.

That was also on account of higher exports because if you remember, Q1 FY22, that was due to the second wave of COVID, and there were very few domestic sales. The export percentage was around 60%, and that resulted in the higher margin.

TS Vijayasarathy
Analyst, Anand Rathi

What are the steady-state margins that we are looking at? Whatever you spoke about EBITDA margins, you could highlight that. What is the—

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Current margin levels are sustainable. We are going to sustain the current margin, and our endeavor will be to improve upon these margins.

TS Vijayasarathy
Analyst, Anand Rathi

Sure. The other small question is, again, between sequentially Q1 FY23 to Q2 FY23, the power and fuel costs have come down from INR 45.8 to INR 43.3 while the production activity has gone up. What led to this fall in power costs? Because I want to understand that the per unit rate is fixed, so if the activity has gone up, why have power costs come down? What is it that we have done, and is it sustainable? This is my second question.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

MD sir, are you taking that?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

This is basically on account of better utilization. If you look at it sequentially, there has been a significant improvement in utilization, and power and fuel costs are directly affected by better utilization. As you yourself have said, the power cost is fixed. If we utilize the equipment for more hours, better utilization gives us a better yield in terms of efficiency in cost.

TS Vijayasarathy
Analyst, Anand Rathi

You're referring to the per-unit cost—I mean, per-ton cost, rather, right?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Not per ton cost.

TS Vijayasarathy
Analyst, Anand Rathi

Absolute cost also.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Absolute cost of power.

TS Vijayasarathy
Analyst, Anand Rathi

Yeah.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Vis-à-vis the tonnage we produce .

TS Vijayasarathy
Analyst, Anand Rathi

Okay. Does it have a bearing on the kind of press lines that you operate, sir, or is it merely to do with higher utilization?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

It is the way our press lines are placed, as well as their utilization.

TS Vijayasarathy
Analyst, Anand Rathi

Okay.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

May take part in it.

TS Vijayasarathy
Analyst, Anand Rathi

Okay. Finally, you had mentioned some order book in your initial remarks for the first half. I mean, is that, or did you not mention it? I don't know. Could you just help us? You said five new orders.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Yeah, five orders totaling INR 408 crore in the first six months.

TS Vijayasarathy
Analyst, Anand Rathi

Okay. Great. Thanks, sir. Thanks a lot. I'll come back.

Operator

Thank you. We have our next question from Mumuksh Mandlesha from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Analyst, Emkay Global

Sir, thanks for the opportunity and wishing the team a happy Diwali and New Year. Sir, what led to the 19% volume growth sequentially for the exports market? If you look at North America, CV, basically bodywork, it was flat sequentially. What led to the strong volume growth for exports?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Look, basically it's because of past order wins; now orders are getting converted into revenue, and we have been able to convert them faster, and all those conversions have helped us in getting growth in exports.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Analyst, Emkay Global

Sir, in the commentary, you mentioned China Plus One beneficiary, Ramkrishna, benefiting from that move. Sir, can you talk about the opportunity there? You mentioned some import duty on Chinese imports from the U.S. market. Can you just share an update on that?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I think, in terms of import duties, we are not aware of any. I don't think Lalit Khetan's opening statement has anything to do with import duties. China Plus One is basically because of supply chain and COVID restrictions. A lot of suppliers and customers are shifting their supply chains from China to other places, and one of the biggest beneficiaries of that is the Indian industry. It is not only RKFL; it is across the board in Pan India and across all segments. The Indian manufacturing sector is getting a leg up due to this shifting.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Analyst, Emkay Global

Right, sir. Thank you, sir. Just on any update on ACIL, can you just share what kind of opportunities you see for that business?

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

I think until we acquire the company, it is very difficult to speak about the opportunities. Once we acquire the company, we will apprise the investors of the opportunities. As management, having bid for the company, we are very confident of acquiring new customers, entering new sectors, and maintaining a good top line and bottom line from the assets there.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Analyst, Emkay Global

Thank you so much for this opportunity.

Operator

Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Varun Basrur from Julius Baer Wealth Advisors. Please go ahead.

Varun Basrur
Analyst, Julius Baer Wealth Advisors

Yeah, good afternoon, sir. I hope I'm audible.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Yes, you are audible.

Varun Basrur
Analyst, Julius Baer Wealth Advisors

Sir, I have two questions. First question is, if I look at the other expenses on a quarter-on-quarter basis between Q1 2023 and Q2 2023, there's been a jump. Any commentary there? Are there any one-off items in these other expenses? My second question is, sorry sir, do you want to answer?

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

No, please carry on.

Varun Basrur
Analyst, Julius Baer Wealth Advisors

Right. You know, while there was very positive commentary which you gave, especially on the Europe export order book, and new businesses flowing in, I just want to understand: in Europe, have there been any deferments on the existing new programs or on the existing order books? I'm done with my questions.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Yeah. Let me address your question on other expenses. This jump in other expenses is basically due to the increase in export expenses because of cargo export ocean freight, which was in Q1 last year. Now you're certainly looking at that. That's why there's a gap, though it is coming down. Last year it was quite steep, and it increased over the quarters. We have not gone back to those levels right now. That's why there is a gap, and slowly it will go down. Regarding Europe and this order, Naresh will answer it.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I think we are not seeing any cancellations or deferments from our US and European OEMs. .

Varun Basrur
Analyst, Julius Baer Wealth Advisors

Okay. Can I ask one more question?

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Hello.

Varun Basrur
Analyst, Julius Baer Wealth Advisors

Hello. Yes. I just want to ask one more question. I'm just going through the CapEx guidance, and, you know, there are some press lines being added. What is the incremental CapEx in tonnage that has been added in the press line or that will be added in the press lines?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I think it's roughly 56,000 tons. We don't have the exact calculation.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Yes, sir. 56,000 tons will be added.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Will be added. Yes.

Varun Basrur
Analyst, Julius Baer Wealth Advisors

Over and above 117,000 tons.

Mumuksh Mandlesha
Analyst, Emkay Global

187,000 tons.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Total capacity 187 + 56.

Varun Basrur
Analyst, Julius Baer Wealth Advisors

Okay. This is all added in press, which is 117,000 tons.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Yes, yes. It will be added in the press. There is an upsetter; the rest is a press line.

Varun Basrur
Analyst, Julius Baer Wealth Advisors

All right. Okay, thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. A reminder to participants to press star and one to ask a question. We have our next question from the line of Sunny Gosar from MKV Ventures. Please go ahead.

Sunny Gosar
Analyst, MK Ventures

Yeah, thanks for taking my question, and congratulations on a strong set of numbers. My first question relates to the freight cost. You mentioned in one of the previous responses that freight costs have started coming down. Basically, if you can help us understand what the freight cost is as a percentage of the revenue and how much benefit can come in the coming quarters due to the decline in freight cost.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Sunny Gosar, the freight cost as a percentage of revenue, should be in the range of around 15%-16% right now in terms of export revenue. Okay. Because it should be linked to export revenue. If you look at the earlier figures, it was more than 20%, and now it has come down to the 15%-16% level, and it certainly wants to go down further.

Sunny Gosar
Analyst, MK Ventures

Any ballpark number in terms of how much further it can go down?

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

It's very difficult to predict. It's really difficult to predict.

Sunny Gosar
Analyst, MK Ventures

Sure. My second question is on the debt number. As of March 2020, the number, which was about, say, 1,550 or 1,570, had some factoring component of about INR 150 crores. In the current gross debt number of September 2022, is there any similar factoring number?

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Yes, it is there, the factoring number. Net debt has gone down by INR 110 crore in H1 FY 2023. The net debt as of 31 March 2022 was INR 1,336 crore, and currently it is at INR 1,225 crore.

Sunny Gosar
Analyst, MK Ventures

Your reported gross debt of about, I think, INR 1,380 crore.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Yeah.

Sunny Gosar
Analyst, MK Ventures

Reported gross debt is about INR 20 crore, I think.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Yes.

Sunny Gosar
Analyst, MK Ventures

There is INR 1,980 crore of factoring.

Lalit Kumar Khetan
Executive Director and CFO, Ramkrishna Forgings

Yes, correct. That's the Tata Motors bill discount, basically.

Sunny Gosar
Analyst, MK Ventures

Perfect. My third question is, basically, if you look at RKFL, historically, it has always been classified as an MHCV ancillary. If you can help us understand with the new orders in EV, LCV, and passenger vehicles, out of the 80% automotive revenue, what would broadly be the mix between, say, your MHCV, which includes India and North America Class 8s, and your other automotive, which will include LCV, passenger vehicles, and Class 5 trucks in, maybe, North America?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Sunny, I think, in terms of MHCV, we are no longer an MHCV supplier. MHCV as a basket is only 50% of our automotive volume. The remaining 50% of my automotive volume comes from Class 8, MHCV, and LCV. This includes every vehicle that is basically below 9-tonners.

Sunny Gosar
Analyst, MK Ventures

Right.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

It includes all varieties.

Sunny Gosar
Analyst, MK Ventures

Right. Going forward, will this mix further improve away from MHCV, or will this business mix broadly remain like this?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

No, for North America, we have entered the off-highway segment and the tractor-trailer segment. These will add new varieties in the near future.

Sunny Gosar
Analyst, MK Ventures

Basically, MHCV dependence will go down further.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Yes.

Sunny Gosar
Analyst, MK Ventures

Got it. Thanks. I will come back in the queue.

Operator

Thank you. We have our next question from Abhishek Jain from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on a strong set of numbers, sir. Sir, currently, rising energy costs in Europe are a big challenge. Is there any shift of business from Europe to India, and will it benefit Indian forging companies for export to the U.S. and Europe?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I think I cannot comment on the other forging companies. As far as RKFL is concerned, like I've said in my earlier answers, we are not witnessing any cancellations or deferments in terms of our new order wins and order book. We are experiencing new order intake in a steady manner. I think one of the major contributors to this is the energy prices which prevail right now in both Europe and the U.S.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

You're saying that you're benefiting from the increasing energy costs in Europe, which is why businesses are coming to Indian companies?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

That is one of the factors.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Okay, fine. Sir, during this quarter, we have seen a sharp jump in the realization of around 11% quarter-on-quarter growth, despite the sharp fall in steel prices of around 25%-30%. What is the reason for the increase in the realization, and how do you see the impact of the realization because of the fall in steel cost in the coming quarter?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

In terms of realization, I think it is purely a part of raw material pricing as well as a part mainly due to changes in product mix, new order geographies, and a new order book coming into play in terms of generating revenue. Regarding the future, steel prices right now are extremely volatile and extremely difficult to comment on how this will shape up. If steel prices decrease from here, realization may also change by a similar quantum.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Why is there no impact on your realization front despite the fall in steel prices? If I say that the product mix as well, there's not a significant improvement on the baseline utilization in that case.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

No, no. I think you, in terms of utilization, never speak of the product mix. Utilization speaks of the tonnage being used. Product mix is purely what, as a company, we know what product mix we are changing.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Okay. You mean that heavy products like axles and all have gone up?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

No, I would not like to comment on that. Basically, the company has achieved a better product mix. That's the reason realizations have gone up. This has been partly due to raw material prices. There was no decrease in raw material prices for us during the quarter.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Yes.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Because, see, the first H1, there was no decrease in raw material prices that we witnessed last year in the steel we are using.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Okay. Sir, as you mentioned that you are going to acquire ACIL in the coming months, I just wanted to know what the cost of the ACIL acquisition is and how much incremental revenue you will get from that.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I think we have already appraised the investors on a regular basis. It's around INR 110 crores, which we will need to spend to acquire the assets. In terms of revenue, right now it is extremely difficult to say in the current environment what the revenue is going to be. After we complete the acquisition, we will obviously inform all our investor community about the exact status and the expected revenue from that.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

It is a machining capacity only, no?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Yes, it's a machining capacity.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Two-wheeler and tractors.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Two-wheeler, tractors.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

What is your CapEx guidance? You have already spent around INR 1.7 billion in the first half. You are going to acquire ACIL, which will cost around INR 1.1 billion. For FY 2023, what is your CapEx guidance?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

See, for FY23, we have not considered ACIL so far. Let ACIL come, then we will decide on that, and that will be in the SPV. For RKFL standalone, we are looking to spend another INR 100 crore in FY23, apart from what we have spent so far.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

You are just adding the capacity of around 6,056 thousand. Most probably all CapEx will be completed this year, or?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

No, no. It will spill over to the next financial year also. Okay?

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Okay.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

That CapEx will not be completed in this financial year.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

For this 56,000, what CapEx is required?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I don't have the exact number. I think another INR 150-160 crore will give us this 56,000-ton capacity. We have already spent money on this CapEx, and another INR 150-160 crore will give us this capacity, another 56,000 tons.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Okay. My last question on this: what is the outlook for North America Class 8 trucks for the next two quarters?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

We will not be able to answer specifically about the outlook. We can only say that, based on what we hear right now from our customers across North American geography and across all our portfolios, we maintain the same statement: we are running a healthy order book and we continue to grow in these geographies.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Okay, sir. Thank you. Thank you. That's all from my side.

Operator

Thank you. Reminder to participants to press star and one to ask a question. We have our next question from the line of Mitul Shah from Reliance Securities. Please go ahead.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

Thank you, sir, for giving me the opportunity and wishing everyone a Happy Diwali and Happy New Year. The first question is again on the average selling price, specifically that realization has improved. Sir, can you elaborate on this product mix change, perhaps with one or two examples? Does it mean increasing more machining within a product, a complete change of design, or maybe tonnage-wise, how would you define a better product mix?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Some products have changed from machining to assemblies, and some products from forging to machining. Because of the current order book, we have been able to better utilize the press, getting higher tonnage into the same presses. All three have been factors contributing to higher realization.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

The kind of sub-assembly type of model we started.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Sub-assembly and assemblies, both.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

Okay, second question, sir. This quarter, geography-wise mix, how was North America, Europe? We have given half-yearly in the presentation. Can you just briefly provide the quarterly figures for the quarter?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

This is almost similar to that. We have not given a presentation, but it's almost near to what we have done in the half-year, same in that quarter also.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

No major change.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

No major change.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

Sir, outlook on Europe side?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I think the outlook is steady, and we'll keep on growing.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

Sir, one thing is that, as you highlighted, because of the better supply, particularly in the export geographies, our production volume as well as the production level of MHCVs in those areas has increased. It must be, to some extent, a backlog from the past few months, where semiconductor and other component supply was an issue. Probably, even next quarter, we can see a similar bump-up type of thing, but after that, it may normalize. What is your judgment: will it normalize after one or two quarters, or might it be from next quarter onwards?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I don't think there is anything in terms of normalization or pent-up demand. We are seeing steady demand, and with new order wins, I think our basket is filled up to the extent we require in terms of keeping with our predicted growth of 20% CAGR.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

Okay. Lastly, on this, sir, the realization you highlighted is all product mix. There is no change on the raw material side. Right, sir?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Raw material, there is no decrease. There is no decrease in raw material.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

No decrease. Yeah, there is no change. Going forward, there will probably be a slight correction, as we highlighted earlier, it is a pass-through type of thing.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Yes.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

It would be reflected in Q3, or there would still be some lag effect and it may come entirely in Q4.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

See, raw material prices either increase or decrease every quarter. If the trend of decreasing prices continues, you'll see a decrease every quarter. If it stops after one quarter, you won't see a decrease after that quarter.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

Okay, sir. Thanks, sir. Thank you very much, and all the best.

Operator

Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Shashank Kanodia from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

Shashank Kanodia
Lead Analyst (Auto), Auto

Yeah, good evening, sir, and thanks for the opportunity. Sir, I just wanted to understand the CapEx part. We are operating at roughly 65% utilization as of the first half, right? What's the pressing need for us to do a good amount of CapEx at this point in time? Will it be adhering to a broader capital allocation strategy wherein we intend to spend up to 30%-40% of our cash profit for CapEx?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I think, first of all, we are not augmenting the same capacity which we already have. We are creating new capacity in new generation press lines with new technologies and specifically going into cold and warm forging. In terms of overall, if you see our capacity utilization, it is close to 82%. We will need to augment, and these are all time-consuming capacity additions. These do not happen overnight. It takes its own time to first plan, put, and stabilize the capacity. The company as a whole is planning way ahead of time so that when capacities are required, we have those.

Shashank Kanodia
Lead Analyst (Auto), Auto

Sir, we outlined a capital allocation strategy a couple of quarters back. Will this CapEx adhere to that allocation strategy, or is it diverting from that front?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

No, it is. We have already committed to it. In our presentation, you can also see that any CapEx which will happen will happen from free cash flow generated by the company during the year. We'll strictly adhere to those plans of debt reduction and allocating balance capital for dividend and CapEx.

Shashank Kanodia
Lead Analyst (Auto), Auto

Sir, what kind of debt reduction can we expect for this year, FY 2023?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I think we have already had a net debt reduction of close to INR 120 crore, and the company wishes to repay another INR 100 crore of debt by year-end.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Okay. The target for being net debt-free is by which fiscal year for us?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

2025.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

2025. Fine, sir. Thank you so much, and wish you all the best.

Operator

Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Garvit Goel from Invest Research. Please go ahead.

Garvit Goel
Analyst, Invest Research

Hello, am I audible, sir?

Operator

Can you speak louder, please?

Garvit Goel
Analyst, Invest Research

Hello. Am I audible?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Yes, you're audible.

Operator

All right.

Garvit Goel
Analyst, Invest Research

Okay. Yes. Yes, sir. My question is from the cash flow working capital management side. I was basically going through your historical numbers, and I found that in the last three years, that is 2020, 2021, and 2022, there has been a significant increase in the percentage of inventory to your total revenues. Can you please explain the reasons and how inventory management or basically the working capital management is going to shape up in the next one to two years, sir?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

In the last three years, if you look at the prices of steel and other goods, they have also considerably gone up. If you're only looking at the valuation part, yes, there has been an increase. In terms of tonnage, there has been a decrease. If you look at the sequential growth of the company year-over-year, there is substantial growth. I don't think inventory is the issue. If you really calculate, inventory has gone up as much as the growth. Going forward also, the company incentivizes our teams to preserve cash rather than inventory. We are already working on inventory reduction. This is going to happen over the next quarters.

Garvit Goel
Analyst, Invest Research

Okay. Understood, sir. Sir, basically, that 56,000 new capacity addition, and you said, you mentioned in the presentation that your CapEx for half year 2023 is already INR 153 crore. Is this INR 153 crore entirely for that capacity or is it for any other expansion?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Entirely on that. Entirely in that capacity.

Garvit Goel
Analyst, Invest Research

This INR 100 crore you are mentioning in the second half—will that also be for that capacity?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Yes.

Garvit Goel
Analyst, Invest Research

Okay. Understood. For next year also, you are mentioning INR 150 crore. So—

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Lalit has said overall, we feel that another INR 150 crore of CapEx will be required to complete this 56,000 tons of CapEx. Out of this, INR 153 crore has already been spent. Another INR 150 crore will be required.

Garvit Goel
Analyst, Invest Research

Okay. Understood, sir. What is your guidance for the top line by the end of financial year '25?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

No, I think we have said that we look, and the company's earnest desire is to continue with the growth path which we are on, and we look at 20% CAGR growth continuously.

Garvit Goel
Analyst, Invest Research

Okay. EBITDA margins, any guidance, or do we sustain 22%?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

We will be able to sustain these margins, and the company looks to improve its internal parameters and improve its margins.

Garvit Goel
Analyst, Invest Research

Understood, sir. Thank you very much, sir. That's all from my side.

Operator

Thank you. We have our next question from Darshil Pandya from Centaurus Capital. Please go ahead.

Darshil Pandya
Analyst, Centaurus Capital

Hello sir. Actually, both of my questions were answered by Shashank and Garvit, you know. I had the same question for CapEx and inventory. Both of them have been answered. Thank you so much. No more questions.

Operator

Thank you. We have our next question from Abhishek Jain from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Thanks for the opportunity again. Sir, you are talking about a 20% CAGR growth for the next two years. For FY 2023, what is your volume growth target?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

See, Abhishek, we have already sold around 62,000 tons in the first half, and we are looking at around 68,000. 130,000 tons will be our sales target for FY 2023.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

What would be the mix, export versus domestic, likely?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

That range is like 40%-42% on the export side. The rest is domestic.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Okay, sir. Thanks. Sir, in this quarter and the last two quarters, production was slightly higher than sales. As the transit time is now decreasing for exports, are you looking for some destocking in the coming days?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I couldn't understand you, Abhishek. Can you repeat that?

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Sir, as production in the last two quarters was slightly higher than sales, and transit time is also decreasing for exports, as you mentioned, are you looking for some destocking in your export market?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

No, see, it's the function of demand from the customer and then whatever the consumption is happening. It depends upon the entire demand-supply scenario. We are feeling that demand will be more and exports will improve from here quarter-on-quarter.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Generally, how much inventory do you maintain for those 400? How many days?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

No, we don't maintain the inventory. We have maintained inventory in Europe a little bit, and that's in the range of 50-64, and it'll be in the US, which is 32-44. That's the inventory we are maintaining in the overseas market.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Okay, sir. How much is the foreign debt on the balance sheet, and how much are the forex losses this quarter?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

We have gained about INR 12 crore in net foreign exchange for this quarter. That's considering the loss on account of debt and the restatement of debt on the Forex. We also have debt in Euros where we are gaining, so it's a mix of the entire situation. The net gain is INR 12 crore for the quarter, considering all foreign exchange assets.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Okay, sir, what were the LCV contributions in this quarter, in the first half of FY 2023, to total revenue?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

No, we have not. We don't have a breakdown of that, but LCV should be close to 6%-6.5%.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

6. Sir, my last question is related to this non-auto segment. What is your plan to ramp up your business? The contribution has already increased to around 19%. What is your target?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

It will continuously grow. I think we are looking at making basically a non-auto segment at 25%. I think our endeavor is to continuously improve on that until we achieve a 25% level in terms of our non-auto business.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

What is your current order book in the railway segment, and what is your revenue target for 2023?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

The railway order book is approximately INR 100 crores+, and we are looking at doubling the railway orders in the order book this year. I think we are looking at close to INR 200 crores-INR 250 crores in FY 2024 in terms of our railway sales.

Abhishek Jain
Fund Manager, Dolat Capital

Okay. Thank you, sir. That's all from my side.

Operator

Thank you. We have our next question from Mitul Shah from Reliance Securities. Please go ahead.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

Sir, thank you for giving me this opportunity again. Sir, I have two or three clarifications. This 56,000 tons new capacity is coming, and you said it will be fully operational by next year. I believe that it will be operational in a phased manner. What could be the likely capacity by the end of the current financial year, in the initial first phase?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I think 50% of the capacity will be ready by March 2023, and the balance 50% by September 2023.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

As you highlighted, it's a specific-purpose type of capacity. Based on the existing order, can you just give a broader indication?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

No, I think it is very early. I think obviously we'll wait for another quarter before we give guidance on that. We would like the capacity to shape up before we start giving guidance on that.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

We must have a few orders related to that capacity, right?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

We already have development orders in hand, but it is very early for us to comment on the exact volume, revenue, and profitability.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

Okay. Secondly, on the MHCV side, in an earlier remark, you highlighted that MHCV contribution has now come down to 50% of the automobile segment. That is 80%. 50% is, you would want to say, that only 40% of the revenue is MHCV right now?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Yes.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

Does this include Class 8 trucks, or are you only talking about domestic MHCVs?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I am talking about entire MHCV.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

Okay. 60% is all non-MHCV, LCV, PV, non-auto, everything.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

We are not into PV in any way. We are into LCV. I'm talking about any vehicle from 9 tons and below.

Mitul Shah
Analyst, Reliance Securities

Got it, sir. Thanks. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone. We have our next question from Vignesh Iyer from Sequent Investments. Please go ahead.

Vignesh Iyer
Analyst, Sequent Investments

Sure. Sir, I've got two questions on hand. One is what is our total order book as of September end? Second is how much are we spending on 4 MW of solar, the solar power plant?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

In terms of the order book, it is very difficult because we work with OEMs who operate on a three-month or one-month schedule. It is very difficult to define what the order book is right now. For a 4-megawatt solar power plant, we are looking at spending somewhere around INR 12-12.5 crore right now to install this 4-megawatt power plant.

Vignesh Iyer
Analyst, Sequent Investments

Okay. Is this including the 100, so is this INR 2.5 crore part of the INR 100 crore you intend to spend or is this over and above that?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

It's part and parcel of the company's overall CapEx spending plan.

Vignesh Iyer
Analyst, Sequent Investments

Okay. What was the total order we received in the first six months?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

I think the first six months are reflected in the top line we have achieved because, basically, we don't have an order book as such. Working with railways, yes, we have an order book of close to INR 100 crore. We work with PSUs; we have orders. When we work with auto OEMs, there is no order book as such, which basically depends on the vehicle plan they produce, and that's on a monthly or three-month basis.

Speaker 14

Okay. Thank you, sir. Yeah. Thank you, sir. That's all from us.

Operator

Thank you. We have our next question from Dhruv from Edelweiss. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hello, am I audible?

Speaker 14

Yes, you're audible.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hi, good evening. Sir, could you please just give me the margin bifurcation for all your business segments, like ring rolling margins and maybe forging and press margins, if that's possible?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

No, that's not possible. We don't work on individual plants. We cannot give you margins.

Speaker 15

Also, I just wanted to ask you, currently we are at 65% capacity utilization for your press business, and we are adding 55,000 tons of capacity there. Why are we not looking at capacity expansion in ring rolling and forging segments where we are at 100%+ utilization?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Basically, as I said, it is new capacity with new technology and new components. We add capacity on a need-basis, based on discussions with the customer. We don't feel the need right now to add any capacity in ring rolling or other areas, as far as customer indications of future demand are concerned.

Speaker 15

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone now. To ask a question, please press star and one on your phone. We have a question from Shaukat Ali from Monarch Networth Capital Limited. Please go ahead.

Speaker 16

Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, a small question from my side: How will the effective tax rate fare for the entire year, FY 2023? Am I audible?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Okay. Can you repeat your question?

Speaker 16

How effective tax rate will fare from here?

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Effective-

Speaker 16

Effective tax rate.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

Effective tax rate. Oh, I'm sorry.

Speaker 16

Yeah. Yeah.

Naresh Jalan
Managing Director, Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

The effective tax rate is in the range of around 24%. I think we will move to around 22%-24% for the full year.

Speaker 16

Okay. Sure. Thank you. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. A reminder to participants to press star and one to ask a question. Participants are requested to press star and one to ask a question. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to the management team for closing comments. Over to you, sir.

Speaker 14

Thank you. We take this opportunity to thank everyone who has joined our call. We hope we have been able to answer all the queries that have been addressed to Aman. For more information, you can get in touch with us, Strategic Growth Advisors, or Invest Research. Thank you very much and have a pleasant evening. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. On behalf of ICICI Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.

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