Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ashish Kejriwal from Nomura Institutional Equities. Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Ashish.
Thank you, Manuja. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of Nomura Institutional Equities, we welcome you again for Steel Authority of India's Q4 FY24 post-result call. We are glad to have Mr. Praveen Nigam, Executive Director of Finance and Accounts, and along with that, we have experts from different departments like operations, marketing, raw material, et cetera. So that, you know, it will have a more holistic view if somebody asks, wants to ask questions related to that also. So I would request now Mr. Nigam for an opening remark, and then we can open the question and answer round. Over to you, sir.
Yeah. Thank you, Mr. Kejriwal. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome all our investors and analysts who are joining this results conference call for the financial results of SAIL's for the period Q4 and annual FY 2024. I believe you have already seen the results on the website of the company and the stock exchanges with BSE and NSE. I would briefly run through the same before we move to the question and answer session, where we would be happy to address your queries. Let me first apprise you on the economic scenario in which we have been operating. The scenario for the global economy looked gloomy at the beginning of the year. There were supply chain disruptions in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Russia-Ukraine war triggered global energy and the food crisis, surge in the inflation, followed by globally synchronized monetary policy tightening, all painted a bleak scenario and pointing to a recession. However, the economy showed a remarkable resilience as inflation subsides gradually and the banks have eased monetary policies. These have charted a steady path for the economy, with estimates for CY 2023 at 3.2% and prediction for the next two year holding at the same level as per the latest IMF World Economic Outlook, published in April 2024. At the same time, the highest interest rates, political conflict elsewhere, high debt level and withdrawal of the physical support pose a downside risk to the same. As far as Indian economy is concerned, Indian economy continues to silver lining in the otherwise gloomy global economy.
By countering the forces of inflation better than the other economies, Indian economy has fared better than its counterpart, and this has maintained relatively stability in the domestic market. As for the second estimate published by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation for financial year 24, the Indian economy has grown by 7.6% during the period. The projection by some of the major agencies like RBI, World Bank, IMF, et cetera, the economy is poised to grow 7% in FY 25 and 6.5 in FY 26, helping it maintain its position as one of the fastest growing amongst major economies. In fact, World Bank has improved its forecast for India in FY 25 significantly from 6.4% in January 2024 to 6.6% in April 2024.
At the same time, IMF has improved its forecast for the economy in CY 2024 from 6.5 to 6.8. In respect to the world steel scenario, the global steel industry was impacted during 2023 on account of several factors like high inflation, falling household purchasing power, and rising geopolitical uncertainties. The higher costs and the tighter credit policies have contributed to slowdown in housing and manufacturing sectors. The overall demand in 2023 has contracted by 1.1% over previous years. The demand in China, the biggest consumer of steel, is a cause of worry as the real estate investment continues to decline.
The steel demand declined by 3.3% in 2023 over previous year and is expected to remain stagnant in 2024, followed by contraction of 1% in 2025. Also, the steel growth in European Union remains the region with the biggest challenge. Multiple factors like geopolitical conflicts, high energy, commodity prices, et cetera, led to substantial 10% decline year-to-year. The region is, however, expected to recover in the coming years, with a growth of 2.9% and 5.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
The overall growth in demand is poised to turn positive, with World Steel Association forecasting a 1.7% and 1.2% growth in steel demand during 2024 and 2025 respectively, as countries like India, Russia, Germany, Iran, et cetera, driving that growth. As far as Indian steel industry is concerned, Indian steel industry has consistently been growing in terms of production as well as consumption numbers in the post-COVID era. During financial year 2024, as well as crude steel production, as well as finished steel consumption, have grown by more than 13%. As per the World Steel Association, SRO, India has been one of the strongest driver of the demand for steels in 2021.
The projection for 2024 and 2025, at 8.2% each, suggests Indian steel demand will continue to charge ahead, driven by continued growth in all steel using sector, and especially by continued strong growth in the infrastructure and investment. With the prices of imported coal declining of late, the industry can also have a sigh of relief on the cost front. At the same time, the prices of steel have also been operating in a narrow band, and there are hopes for improvement in the coming quarters. Now, let me tell you something about the company's performance for the quarter. Coming to the performance of the company, SAIL has registered its best ever physical performance during financial year 2024.
The performance of the company during the financial year 2024 stand as follows: Our crude steel production stood at 19.239 MT, which is an increase of 5% over CPLY. CPLY, it was 18.291 MT. Saleable steel production stood at 18.437 MT, an increase of 7% over CPLY. The CPLY figure was 17.246 MT. Saleable steel SAILs volume stood at 17.024 MT, registering a growth of 5% over CPLY. The CPLY figure was 16.197 MT. In fact, the domestic SAIL has, have grown by more than 6%, with export registering a decline of 22%.
The turnover at INR 1,04,545 crore has, however, grown by 1%, as the decline in the price realization by 6% had an adverse impact on the same. On the profitability front, the company registered an EBITDA of INR 12,280 crore. That is an improvement of 31% over CPLY. The CPLY EBITDA was INR 9,379 crore. Profit before tax and profit after tax stood at INR 3,688 crore and INR 2,733 crore, as against INR 3,263 crore and INR 1,903 crore, respectively, during CPLY.
As regards sustenance and operation efficiencies, in the area of operational efficiency, the company has been making steady progress for reducing coal of the core cost, increasing the usage of CDI, bringing down the specific energy consumption, improving the blast furnace productivity, continuing with the drive towards improving the product mix. The production of semis in the saleable steel production stood at less than 15%. By engaging conversion services in and around the plant, of the demand sector, the percentage share of semis in SAILs has been low, even lower by, lower at 8%. Going forward, the boost from the various measures being taken by the government on the infrastructure spending augurs well for the steel demand in the country.
With the overall outlook positive for sustained growth in domestic consumption, we are hopeful of the realization, and consequently, the margin will improve for the company in the quarters to come. With these words, I hand it back to Mr. Kejriwal for opening up question and answer session. I am sure you all have lots of queries on the performance of the company. Thank you. Mr. Kejriwal?
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question, may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, it's me, I think. So, good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for the opportunity. So I have a couple of questions. The first one is on, if I look at operating expenditure, sorry, other expenditure and employee cost, they seem to have gone down in this quarter, YOY basis. QOQ, if you look at other expenditure, that's basically constant, despite SAILs volume going up significantly. So just wanted to understand the key drivers of both, and what should we consider, and what is the run rate that we should consider going ahead in employee cost in particular? That is the first question.
Yeah, as far as the employee cost is concerned, you see, there has been a constant decline as per the employees in terms of numbers are concerned. On an average, in SAIL, employees are reducing in the tune of 3,000 per year. That is one of the major reason for reduction in the employee cost.
So what would be the employee strength now and this year end, and how much is reduced this year?
It is already available in the presentation, what we have uploaded. You can see the slide, just a minute.
Fifty-five.
It is, it is 55,000 as of 1989, as on 31st March. You can see the slide what we have uploaded.
But the 17% YOY decline in employee cost, that is a significant decline that we see, and particularly over Q3 over Q4, we always saw an increase because of actuarial provisions and all. So just wanted to understand from that perspective, you know, where employee cost is headed?
... Apart from, apart from reduction in the number, there have been actual gain on account of the leave encashment, particularly. That is also one of the factor for reduction in the employee cost.
What about other expenditures? It has also been under control.
Yeah. Yes, other expenditure, there has been reduction in the power and phone cost, and also certain provisions, which we have, you can say, provided last year, which we have not provided this year. That is one of the reason for reduction in the other expenditures.
What could be that, can you quantify those provisions, sir?
The provision, actually, last year what we had made provision was to the tune of INR 229 crore. This year, we have made a provision in Q4 of INR 52 crore, so there's a decline of INR 177 crore as the provisions are concerned.
Okay, fine. The second question is on CapEx, sir, if to, you know, just give us the details of, this 31 million ton capacity increase that we are targeting, where we are, what are the key, configurations we have decided, and what would be the CapEx plan for the, this year? That is, the second question.
So, actually in the Capex two question, what is likely expenditure in the current year, and what is our overall Capex plan, particularly, what we have announced that from the present level of 20 million tons of crude steel, we will be increasing our capacity to 35 million by the end of 2031. As far as current year is concerned, current year Capex would be in the range of INR 6,300 crore, what we have planned. As far as the modernization expansion plan is concerned, there we have already announced that, as we, we will be having a phase-wide expansion.
In the first phase, we are going for expansion of our IISCO Steel Plant, where this approval of the board for the stage one is already available. For Bokaro Steel Plant and Durgapur Steel Plant, pre-feasibility report has already been prepared. The board has given also go ahead, and we will be going for further for forming of the project report as far as Bokaro and Durgapur is concerned, and thereafter we move moving forward.
Sir, as for the pre-feasibility report, what would be the total expenditure that you embark on, and what would be the peak year of that expenditure?
As for IISCO Steel Plant is concerned, in the IISCO Steel Plant, it is around INR 36,000 crore.
In the other case?
In other case, still the consultancy is working on. We have not yet formed up the cost of other in other cases. But roughly, if you see, there is an increase of 15 million tons, then if you see SAIL as a whole, then it will be in the range of INR 100,000 crore-INR 110,000 crore.
Okay, sir, great. Thanks so much. I will come back in the queue, and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Somaiah, from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity, sir. First question, some clarification on the price revision on a provision basis we have taken for the day. So the INR 17 billion that we have mentioned this quarter, so this is for both FY 2023, 2024, that's one, and with this we are by and large complete at least till end of FY 2024, we don't expect any further provisions going forward. Just want to clarify on this.
Yeah, the provision what we have made in Q4 is, yeah, INR 1,714 crore, which include, for financial year 2022, 2023 and also 2023, 2024. In that, if you see that, provision pertaining to the period prior to Q4 are, for 2022, 2023 is INR 8,077 crore, and impact of the nine months is INR 559 crore.
Yeah.
Pertaining to Q4, it is INR 278 crore.
So, going forward, we don't any... I mean, we don't expect anything, related to at least till FY 24, bookings. Is that the right understanding?
No, these prices are actually provision prices. You see, there is a mechanism in the, in as far as the rail pricing is concerned, there is one department known as cost, the CA Cost, under the Department of Expenditure in the Ministry of Finance. They are deciding the cost, which is prices which is to be given by the railway. So our figures are with them. They will decide finally what would be the prices. We are expecting a price better than whatever the provision price given by the railway as of now.
Got it. Sir, can you just give what is the booking rate on a rupees per ton basis for FY 2022, 2023, 2024, and what we are planning to do for FY 2024?
I, as the prices precisely are concerned, I will give you offline.
Okay, sir. Second question is on coking coal. Could you just give some color on, I mean, what was the coking coal draft the quarter gone by, and what you are expecting for this quarter, and also if you could provide some color on the mix of coking coal sourcing, that'd be great.
As the prices of the coking coal are concerned, if you see Q3, Q3, the coking coal prices were INR 223,693 to be precise, and in the Q4 the cost was INR 26,424. In the indigenous it was INR 12,000, and in Q4 it was INR 13,000.
... The expectations for current quarter?
The expectation for current quarter, the expectation for current quarter? Yeah. It will be roughly $30 down as compared to Q4.
Got it. Thank you. I'll turn back to you. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vikas Singh from PhillipCapital. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir, and thank you for the opportunity. Just wanted to understand what kind of volume growth target we are targeting this year, especially in the context that we have a significant inventory also with us?
Well, we are targeting a production in excess of 20 million ton. And as our sales are concerned, it would be 19 million ton.
This includes some sale of the inventory, I know, because if I believe rightly, we have over 1.6 million tons of inventory at this point of time.
Yes, you are right. We have over 1.6 million tons of inventory, and we are targeting to reduce our inventory, and this is included here also. The inventory reduction in these two months in particular is to the tune of 2.09 lakh tons. At present, if you say, our inventory is 1.452 million tons.
Understood, sir. Sir, with this context again, how do you see our net debt moving? Because significant inventory liquidation would also happen. What is our target date for FY25?
You see, our total borrowing was to the tune of INR 30,500 crore. In this quarter, the borrowing has increased, mainly because of the high inventory, no doubt, and also lower realization from the railway. At present, our borrowing is to the tune of INR 35,000 crore. But we are expecting that by the end of this financial year, because the coal prices are coming down, we will be realizing our rail prices also from the railway. And, NSR, we are expecting, will not slide further, and it will maintain its position. So our borrowing should come down below INR 30,000 crore level, as it was this year.
Understood. Sir, just one clarification on the railway side: Did we also get the ad hoc price also so the going forward, all the billing would be at the new prices, or, we will still be doing billing at the FY 2022 prices? Just needed some explanation there.
The policy is that, till the prices are given by the CA Cost, and thereafter the approval of the CRB is given, all the billing is done based on the current prices only. As of now, our prices, when billing for 2021-22, 2022-23, and 2023-24, is based on the current prices only. Because as of 2021-22 is concerned, CA Cost has given their recommendation. We are waiting for the approval of the CRB. Once the approval of the CRB is available, we will raise the final bill. And 2022-23, 2023-24, CA Cost has not yet finalized the prices. They have not given any recommendation, so we are waiting for the recommendation of the CA Cost. Thereafter, it will be given to the railway for the approval of the CRB.
Understood, sir. That's all from my side. Thank you for taking my question.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ketan Mehta from BOB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for this opportunity. One question on the slide 27, where we have indicated the INR 903 crore of quarter-on-quarter benefit from raw material usage, which was partly offset by INR 894 crore of input price and cost. Could you elaborate on specific items which were included under the quarter-on-quarter benefit of INR 903 crore raw material usage?
Just a minute. Just a minute. Hold on.
Hello?
Just a minute. I'm coming back.
Sure.
Yeah. So that EBITDA movement, what we have shown, on account of coal, it is around INR 452 crore. And on account of uses of raw iron ore, it is INR 196 crore. And there are others also like nickel, ferro manganese, etc. So that sum up to INR 900 crore, what we have shown in our presentation.
What would be the impact, which is also shown next number, INR 894 crore, which is offsetting some of this benefit?
INR 894 crore. Just a minute. Yeah, this is actually regarding the input prices. That is NSR. That's, that is a reduction in the NSR.
Understood, sir. Thank you. The second question was about the utilization level of structural mills at two plants, Universal Section Mill as well as Medium Structural Mill. Could you elaborate on their current utilization?
... structural mill of particularly of Burnpur and Durgapur?
Yeah.
I have Mr. Puri, he's from the Operations Directorate. He will address your query.
Thank you.
The structural mills at Durgapur, that is MSM, and the USM at ISP, Burnpur, they have done their very best in the utilization of our capacity this year. And the next year, going forward, the next year targets in ABP are still modest for them, and they are quickly ramping up towards. A lot of enablers have been made available to these two mills, just to, because it involved a lot of foreign technology, which took a lot of time in their ramping up. But now the spares and all positions have been frozen, and we are going to grow in a big way in these two mills. And a lot of growth is planned in the ABP, in these two mills.
Would you be able to indicate the actual utilization level in terms of a number? Was it above 70% or some quantitative indication?
Just give me a minute, Kiritani.
Sure.
Yeah. What Mr. Puri has told that as far as USM of Burnpur is concerned, the utilization is 70% of the capacity, and MSM is in the range of 55%-60%.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead. The participant is on hold. The next question is from the line of Nalin Shah from NVS Brokerage. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. At one end, India is going through an infrastructure boom, and at other end, we also have the China factor. So in light of these contrasting factors, how do you think, FY 25 will pan out for steel companies?
Yes, if you see that, as far as FY 2023-24, as I told in my opening remark, that, both production of crude steel and consumption of finished steel has increased by 13%. We are expecting that there will be a positive growth in 2024-25 also. Yes, China factor, you are saying, yes, since there is a, the economy in China is not in a very good shape. And, particularly with the imposition of certain restriction by the U.S., which include steel also, there is every likelihood that the steel from China will come to India and might put pressure on our, Indian steel also.
But the kind of growth which we are seeing as far as our Indian steel consumption is concerned, we are still hopeful that whatever we are producing will get consumed within the country. Government impetus is already there for development and infrastructure. And we are expecting that this year also, the growth will be to the tune of at least 12%-13%, both production as well as consumption. And whatever the import will be coming to China, that will have, might have some impact, but that will not have any severe impact. Still, we are keeping a wide watch or keeping an eye on the imports from China. In fact, you can see that in this particular quarter, the prices of the long products have already increased by 12%-13%.
This shows that there is a positivity in the market.
Yes, sir. Thank you, sir. Sir, and one more thing. I guess we have the permission to sell the low-grade fines. So what impact would it have, sir?
We have provision to sell the low-grade fines. You see, there is a heap in the Jharkhand, and then it is also available in the Odisha group of mines. In the Jharkhand, we have got the permission for the internal consumption of those fines. We are not in a position to sell those fines. We have certain plan whereby these fines can be pelletized, and after the pelletization, these will be consumed by our own plants. That pelletization process is on, it is still under construction under the comm method. This is what I can tell you.
Yeah. Thank you very much, sir. Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pratim Roy from Batlivala & Karani Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, thanks for the opportunity. I have a couple of questions. Firstly, what will be the NSR for the Q4, long and flat both? And what kind of NSR improvement we can expect for Q1, considering that you have just mentioned the long steel price have moved up, moved up by 12%-13%. So what kind of, for the end of this quarter, how much price increase we can expect? That is the first question, sir.
In Q4, the long was fetching an NSR to the tune of INR 55,400, and the flat was fetching the NSR to the tune of INR 53,700.
Mm-hmm.
As far as this Q1 of financial year 2024-25 is concerned, the long what we have got is to the tune of 54,600, and in the flat it is 53,500.
So sir, you just mentioned, 12%-13% increase in the long steel prices. But you mentioned that the 1Q long price is INR 54,600, if I'm not wrong, and 4Q to INR 56,400.
You see, in the month of April, if you see what I have said, in the month of April, the prices of the long were in the range of INR 51,700. What I have told in the Q4 was the average of the Q4, but if you see in the month of April, the prices of the long were INR 51,700, which has increased to INR 54,600 in the month of May. So that is what I'm saying, there is a possibility the prices in the month have increased as the long is concerned, and similarly the position in the flat also.
Okay, sir. Second thing is that, what is the CapEx guideline for FY 2025? That is INR 6,300 crore, right?
Yes, yes.
Yeah, and if you can give me some material output, when we can expect the proper CapEx guideline, and when we can expect that, how much capacity will come by FY 2026 or 2027 around May, or it will everything will come on FY 2031.
Not exactly everything will come by every thirty-thirty-one. You see, as I told that as far as the IISCO Steel Plant is concerned, we have already got the approval from the board. We are in the process of finalizing the party. Tendering process is on, and we are expecting that by the end of October, probably we'll be in a position to firm up the party, and we'll get the approval, that is second stage approval from the board. Thereafter, the expansion at the East Coast will start. In the initial phase, you can understand that only the drawing and design, et cetera, are shared. So this year we are not expecting much expenditure as the CapEx is concerned, as far as the modernization is concerned.
As for our expectation goes from 26, 27, and in particular, 27, 28, and 28, 29. The major CapEx will come, and as for the facilities are concerned, as far as Burnpur is concerned, we are expecting by 2029. 2027, 28 FY. 2027 or 2028 late, we will be in a position to start commissioning of the facility at East Coast plant. And thereafter, gradually, all the facility will get commissioned by 2030, 31.
Okay, and so lastly, just to add one question. So what is the debt guide, debt guideline for FY 25 that you have mentioned? It will be around less than INR 30,000 crore. So, will it be at the same range for FY 26, or it may go up or something like that, or any, any leverage ratio that we are maintaining for the upcoming years?
You see, we have always been saying that we will keep a ratio of 1:1 as far as the debt equity is concerned. Our present borrowing is to the tune of as of 31st March INR 30,000 crore. This has increased to INR 35,000 crore because I said the lower realization from the railway and because of the piling of the inventory also. But what we are expecting that this inventory will get regulated in this year, and the prices on the railway will also come to us. Secondly, the prices of coal, which has come down substantially, if this remains in the same range, then our borrowing will come down further, and it will be lower than INR 30,000 crore by the end of March 2025.
Okay, sir. Okay, thank you for the clarification.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rashi Chopra from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just on the NSR, again, to clarify, you said that the long realization was INR 55,400 in the quarter, right?
Yes.
The realization of INR 54,600 that you've given, is that an average of April, May, or is that just the May realization?
It is mid-month of May.
April was 51,000?
Fifty-one, yes.
Okay. So on a blended basis, it's still lower than the first quarter, fourth quarter.
It is still lower, but if you see the current prices, as far as long is concerned, it is mid-month, it was INR 54,000, but as of now, whatever the feedback we have from the market, it is in the range of INR 58,000. So that is what we are saying, there is a positivity in the market. The prices in the long have increased as compared to April, and we are expecting that this positive sentiment will remain in the remaining months also in this financial year.
Okay, and how do flats stack up here? So what was April, mid-month and-
Flat, flat, flat, from April to May, if you see mid, mid-month in April, it was in the range of INR 51,500, and in May mid-month, it was INR 53,500. And flat, more or less, is maintaining its position, is not increasing the way long product has increased.
Okay. And sorry, just the average NSR for the quarter was what? Blended for flats and long.
Quarter means, quarter means, quarter four?
Yes.
Quarter four, the average NSR, both long and flat, is taken together, was in the range of INR 54,500.
... Okay, thank you. Just on the cost side, you mentioned that the imported blending coking coal cost was INR 26,500, and,
Yes.
This compares to quarter three at 23,700, right?
Yes.
So there was an increase in the coking coal cost, but in that slide, the bridge that you showed, you said there was an INR 450 crore improvement on the coking coal side. So was there a change in the blending ratio, or, I mean, how was the decline, how was that decline explained by an increase?
No, no. You see the slide, this is INR 453 on account of the usage. Usage in the sense that we have made improvement in our blend and also improved our techno-economic parameters. For that, this improvement has come. I'm able to clear?
Yes. Yes, I understood that. Okay. Just one more question on the CapEx side. This year, what did you say the target is? I missed that.
8,300.
What is this largely on?
It will be mostly, you can say, sustainable CapEx, and there will be some payment, as I told that, we are expecting that, IISCO Steel Plant, this party will be finalized, and expansion will start maybe from October, November. So initially, in the initial stage, some payment may be made, but largely on the sustainable CapEx.
Okay. IISCO's capacity is 4 million tons, right?
Yes.
So, apart from IISCO, Bokaro and Durgapur, are you also trying to sweat capacities like you?
Yes, we are also trying to sweat capacity because, whatever we have planned this year is higher than what, we have achieved, in the current year. So, so we are, there are certain facilities which we are trying to sweat and, yes.
Sorry, how much will that add, the sweating of capacity?
Sweating of capacity, how much it will add? Just a minute. Just a minute. Yeah. You see, we will be having a new caster at our Rourkela Steel Plant, which will add 1.4 MT. We are also upgrading our Blast Furnace 3 of Durgapur Steel Plant, which will add around 0.9 MT. We are also having a new coke oven battery in IISCO Steel Plant, which will add 0.4 MT. So this is what we are going to increase as far as the capacity is concerned.
Okay, thank you. Those are my questions.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Riddhi Panchal from Chanakya Capital. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. My first question was, approximate, how much energy is required to produce one ton of liquid steel for sale?
How much energy is required to produce one ton of liquid steel? 6.3. 6, 6.3? 6.31 gigacalorie.
Gigacalorie, yes, 6.31 gigacalorie.
That was the world's best we achieved last year. Mm-hmm.
6.31.
Yes.
My second question is: How much does iron ore per ton cost to SAIL, given that SAIL has its own iron ore mine?
Iron Ore cost.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah, it would be in the range of INR 1,300-INR 1,400 per ton, and plus royalty on that.
Sorry, can you come again, please?
INR 1,300-INR 1,400 per ton, plus royalty.
Okay. How much is the royalty percentage, if it is provided?
Actually, there are, we have a mine in different state, like Jharkhand, we have in Odisha, and we have in Chhattisgarh. So the royalty in Jharkhand is higher, because the mines got renewed after 2015. In Rourkela, it's still lower because the old lease are continuing, and in Bhilai also, the royalty is high. So give the average figure of the total royalty, we will give you offline.
Okay, thanks. And just one last question: So for electric arc furnaces, same uses scrap, like, as in, same, same uses industrial scrap, right? So just wanted to know whether the scrap is similar to mild steel scrap, or is it something else that we use, and what is the cost per ton to SAIL for that?
As such, doesn't produce its steel through arc furnaces. It is mainly BF route only for producing steel. So what are you referring to in particular?
... So on the website, it says that, one of the sources is industrial scrap excess steel that is trimmed by the auto and appliance stampers. So that is bought under, auction by SAIL.
We are producing in our alloy steel plants and our ferroalloy plant, we are using arc furnaces.
Mm-hmm. Correct.
So, alloy steel plant, we have at Durgapur, that is using steel scrap for mainly, mainly the generations from the plant itself. And as far as the cost is concerned, cost we will share offline. Cost, we will not share online.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Tushar Chaudhary from Prabhudas Lilladher. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. Thanks a lot for the opportunity. Sir, we were also adding 1 million tons of casters in Bhilai and Rourkela each. I think last few quarters we were discussing. Any update on that? Plus, there was one TMT also at DSP.
Yes. Yes, Samir. Yeah, as far as Bhilai is concerned, that, the 0.8 MT, it is under the trial, and as far as Rourkela is concerned, by 2025, we are expecting that this caster will come. The Bhilai one is capable of producing beams and blooms both. So the beam part has been already commissioned, and the bloom part is under trials. It has been tried for normal steel, but it is under trials for rail steel.
Okay. And the TMT, DSP?
DSP, TMT, there are two proposals. One is, I think under the COM basis, and another is, we will be constructing on our own, that is MEP. Both are, still under process, not yet, freeze. Rajeev? 1 million on site, 1.4 on COM. Yeah, 1 million ton is on MEP, on our own, and 0.4 is on COM basis. But it will take time. It will take time.
Okay. And sir, I missed the break-up of INR 1,700 crore, which we have given. How much was the FY 2023 portion in that railway price revision?
This INR 1,700 crore of railway price, there are three portions. If you see how much pertaining to Q4 of 2023-2024, it was INR 278 crore. Rest was pertaining to, prior to Q4, in which 9-month figure of the 2023-2024 was around INR 550 crore, and the impact of the 2022-2023 was around INR 877 crore.
INR 827 crore.
Seventy-seven.
Okay, thanks a lot, sir. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kamlesh Jain from Lotus Asset Managers. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. Sir, one question on the part of CapEx. Like, we, like SAIL l completed the CapEx after a span of around 10 years, and today we are getting those volumes in real time. So, now with the government being very focused on divestment part, like, say, sometime back, RIN was also on the selling block, then, NMDC Nagarnar plant is also sell. So how sure are we on this particular projects, like on this, capacity expansion? And, if you can, like, say, throw some light on the part that when this can come stream or ordering will happen, because honestly, like, over last 5 years, we have been only on the maintenance CapEx, around INR 4,800 crore CapEx every year. And despite that, our debt has grown to FY 2022 levels.
There are reasons that coking coal prices have also gone up, but if you see rest of the players, their CapEx, their, like, say, debt levels are at, like, say, multi-year low, despite heavy on the CapEx side. Everybody is spending CapEx and expanding capacity, and they have lot more visibility on their capacity expansion. While in our case, where the primary shareholder is on the divestment path, how sure are we on this CapEx guidance, which we are highlighting?
Regarding this modernization expansion plan, what we have announced from 20 million to 35 million tons, as I have already told that it will be done in the phases. I have already explained that as far as Rourkela is concerned, we have already got the stage one approval. We are in the tendering process, and we are expecting that our tendering process will complete and party will be finalized by maybe October. Bokaro and Durgapur, pre-feasibility report is already over, and we are in the process of going for stage one approval from the board. Rajeev? Yes. Stage one approval from the board, and thereafter, we will move further Rourkela and the Bhilai Steel Plant. We have learned from our past experience that there were delays in the expansion.
The time overrun was there. Taking learning from that, we are pretty confident that this year, whatever we have planned, we will be in a position to commission all our facilities as per the plan, and by June 30, 31, our facility will increase from present 20 million ton to 35 million. As far as the debt is concerned, what you have referred that debt has increased, yes, we have seen debt has increased. We are concerned about that, but the primary reason for the increase in debt in this particular year, particularly, as I told that our debtors has increased, if you can see our result to the tune of almost INR 3,000 crore-INR 3,500 crore, because the realization from the railway was not available, which we are expecting will be available in this financial year.
And also planning of the inventory, particularly in Q3, because of the low demand. Since the demand is picking up, we are expecting that all this inventory will also get liquidated. So realization from these two sources will also help us in reducing our debt. Second, the prices of coal, in 2023-24, were pretty high. NSR was continuously dipping, which we are seeing a better picture, a better position in 2025, 2024-2025. The prices of the coal has come down substantially, which are holding the range of around 239-240, which we are expecting will continue this year. So there will not be much stress as the imported coal prices are concerned. This will further help us in reducing our debt.
We are expecting by the end of this particular year, our debt will be substantially lower by INR 2,000 crore, 2023-24, that is INR 30,000 crore.
Yeah. Secondly, on the side of like, say, how much CapEx cost per ton we are looking at, because these are mainly brownfield projects, and even in the past, SAIL has committed only to the green brownfield expansion. So if I see the EBITDA pattern today, it is roughly around $60, and if I assume we spend roughly around $900. So like on the ROE front or all return parameters, like, it doesn't justify to expand capacity and rather focus on curtailing down the cost, despite having the fact that we have our captive ore mine. So even in that scenario, we are making $50-$55 per ton. So how does it justify to expand capacity rather than working more on the cost side?
As far as the capacity expansion is concerned, we are more focusing on the value addition, added products, which will give us, better NSR. The cost and also we are continuously monitoring and, trying to improve, our efficiency, which will in turn help us in reducing our cost. As per the expansion, you said, how much is the per ton? As I told that 15 million ton expansion, we are expecting to the tune of INR 100,000 crore-INR 110,000 crore, which roughly would be in the range of 7,000-7,500 per ton, per million ton.
And so what additional improvement are we seeing in our product mix? Because we are already at one of the best product mix in the last 7, 8 years. Like the semis have gone down to 8%, which earlier used to be at roughly around 18%-19%. And even major portion of the semis is like, say, conversion in the open market. So there are also the semis which is really not semis. It is getting converted by the resellers. So, what additional improvement are we seeing on the product mix once the expansion comes online?
As I told that, we are more focusing on the value-added production. If you see that, in 2023-24, our value-added production was to the tune of almost 9, 9.5 million tons, but we are expecting that going forward, it will increase to 11 million ton. So more focus is on the value-added product. Also in the, we are focusing on reducing the cost, improving our capital economic parameters. These all will help us in improving our bottom line.
Great, sir. Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot, sir.
Thank you. The next follow-up question is from the line of Somaiah from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity again, sir. Sir, first question is in terms of employee cost. So you did mention, you know, close to 3,000 headcount reduction per year. So what kind of annual savings does that bring in?
Annual saving by reduction in the employee cost, reduction in the employee number?
Uh, yeah.
Exact number, it is very difficult to give because there is a mix, because in the sense that, there is a continuous increase in the dearness allowance of the existing employee, and number also reducing. So to tell exactly, what will be the impact per employee, it difficult to tell at this time, sir.
No problem, sir. Broadly, in FY 2024, our employee cost, is that the run rate that you are looking forward, you know, going forward, that, that can be more or less in and around that number, factoring for normal wage revisions offset by, headcount reduction?
Current, going forward, current financial would be to the tune of 11,000-11,500 employees, considering all the aspects.
So, so that is what you're expecting going forward also. So just want to check.
Yes. Yes, yes, yes.
Got it. So second question is the domestic demand. So you did mention prices are getting better on the long side. So what... I mean, what on the ground you are seeing as a change between April to May? Is it purely demand driven, or there is also a bit of a restocking demand help that is happening, or there has been a bit of a supply constraint on the secondary side, or there's been a cost pass-through? So which of these factors is driving-... this, this is a sharp uptick in the last one month or so.
I have with me Mr. R.R. Singh, he's from the marketing side. He will answer your query.
Good morning to all of you. Since April, the prices of long product have increased, and there's a significant change in the trend of the long product, prices. And we hope that, because of the good consumption trend, consumption has increased by 13% over CPLY. We expect the consumption to continue. There is a lot of visibility with respect to infrastructure growth in this current financial year, with stability of the government and, with lot of infrastructure push. And, primarily the secondary prices have gone up. Secondary market, secondary players, they control around 70% of the total long product, right? So secondary prices have gone up primarily based on cost push.
Because of domestic coking coal prices increasing by around INR 2,000 per ton from INR 9,000, say, to INR 11,000 per ton. So that is the main driver of the prices in the long product segment. And the demand from the infrastructure likely to be very robust. Going forward, I see long products sustaining, the demand sustaining, and the prices also sustaining at current levels. How much further increase will be a matter of speculation. But going forward, we see a good demand in the long product segment. flat products will continue to remain at similar position because the flat products is primarily determined, the prices are determined to a great extent by the imports from China and other countries.
But in long product, it is mostly domestically driven, infrastructure push and cost push. We'll see that, prices will remain similar. Thank you.
Got it. So one last question on cash taxes. So it has been quite minimal. So what is our expectation? How long will this difference continue in terms of cash and so forth?
Can you repeat once again?
The cash tax, cash taxes that we pay is currently very minimal. So I mean, this benefit, how long can it continue?
This answer I will give you offline, because right now I'm not having that figure with me.
Okay. Thank you. That's all from my side.
Thank you. Due to time constraint, that will be the last question for the day. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ashish Kejriwal from Nomura Institutional Equities for closing comment. Over to you, sir.
Yes, thank you, everyone. Thank you very much. And, again, on behalf of Nomura, we thank the management of SAIL for giving us an opportunity to host this call. And thank you, sir, for your detailed answers. From my side only, sir, 2 questions, and then we can give a closing remark. What could be our finished steel capacity as of FY24 end, and how you are seeing this increasing year by year till the time our ISP Burnpur capacity comes in? That's the one question. And second is, in terms of inventory days, our inventory days is, seems to be, you know, among the highest in the street, as compared to our peer groups. So can we do something over there to reduce the number of inventory days?
First I will take your second question regarding inventory. Yes, inventory, what we are holding, is higher than even whatever the norm we are having. We are concerned about that, and we are trying to bring down, if not possible, at least substantially. Presently, yeah, it is at a very high level.
So, sir, because not only presently, we look at over last five, seven years also, this seems to be very high as compared to the industry standard. It's more, seems to be more than, you know, three months on an average. In fact, sometimes it's four months also.
When we talk about the inventory, we are talking about only finished steel inventory. So you see, for financial 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, our inventory holding was to the tune of almost 18-20 days, which actually has increased in this financial year substantially. There we are focusing to bring it down further.
Sure, sure. And so second, finished steel capacity?
Yes. Finished steel capacity, actually, we call it saleable steel. The saleable-
Yeah
... steel capacity as per our this if we see our five steel integrated steel plant is concerned, it will be to the tune of 19.04.
Mm.
Operating capacity would be to the tune of 18.57 million ton. And if taking the smaller plant, that is a special steel plant also, then our operating capacity would be to the tune of 19.09 million ton. And the growth percentage, if you see that the growth percentage was available will be to the tune of 9%.
This, this 19.09 million ton capacity, how it is moving in next two years?
Next financial year, we have a plan, as the annual business proposition concerned, is 20.09 million ton. And with the addition of this caster RSP, we are expecting another 0.4 million ton will increase. And if you see year wise, year wise... Can we give it separately offline?
Yeah, yeah, sure, sure, sure. No issue. Thank you so much, sir, and any closing comment?
Yeah, thank you, Mr. Kejriwal. As we have said, that the forecast of the Indian economy by various agencies has been quite encouraging. The upgrade in the same is strengthening the belief that the economy will continue to do well. In fact, the forecasts are not holding good for just a few years. There are reports which are forecasting India to become the third largest economy in the world in the near future. The steel demand forecasts are also quite promising at 7.7% in FY 2024, and the focus of the government on the infrastructure spending is a big boost to the economy in general and the steel industry in particular. The residential sector is also expected to grow, backed by affordable housing projects and urban demand.
Private investment is also improving on the back of the Production Linked Incentive schemes . India's capital goods sector is also expected to benefit from the momentum in the infrastructure and the investment in renewable energy. Automotive and consumer durable are expected to maintain healthy growth, driven by sustained growth in the private consumption. The company remains committed towards the sustainable performance, including... capacity utilization, value addition, and achieving cost competitiveness. And I thank all our investors for their reposing faith in us, and I am hopeful that the same shall continue in the future as well. Thank you, Mr. Kejriwal.