Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Shree Cement Ltd conference call for quarter eneded 30th June 2024, hosted by PhillipCapital India Pvt Ltd. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Vaibhav Agarwal from PhillipCapital India Pvt Ltd. Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Agarwal.
Yeah, thank you, Michelle. Good evening, everyone. On behalf of PhillipCapital India Pvt Ltd, we welcome you to the Q1 FY25 call of Shree Cement Ltd. On the call, we have with us Mr. Neeraj Akhoury, Managing Director, Mr. Ashok Bhandari, Senior Advisor, and Mr. Subhash Jajoo, Chief Financial Officer at Shree Cement. I would like to mention, on behalf of Shree Cement Ltd and its management, that certain statements that may be made or discussed on this conference call may be forward-looking statements related to future developments, and these statements are based on current management expectations. These statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties, and other important factors which may cause actual developments and results to differ materially from the statements made.
Shree Cement Ltd and the management of the company assume no obligation to publicly alter or update these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or otherwise. I will now hand over the floor to the management of Shree Cement Ltd for their opening remarks, which will be followed by interactive Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, Neeraj, sir.
Where are you? Hand it over to the MD of the company.
Okay, so, sir, you can take it, sir. That's what I, you can take it, sir.
Neeraj ?
Yeah, I'm here. I'm here. I thought I was.
I welcome you to the earnings call of Shree Cement for Q1 2025. Just to set the agenda, June 24 quarter was certainly tough for us, but also for the industry, despite the challenging market conditions, typically characterized by sluggish demand due to combined impact of elections as well as extreme weather conditions. And despite all this, we continued to optimize our production processes in the last quarter. We did enhance our cost efficiencies, and our focus on the branding initiatives, but also go-to-market initiatives, continues. These efforts have enabled us to navigate the difficult market conditions. Historically, with these steps, we have been able to deliver consistent value to our stakeholders. While the challenge remains, we are very confident that Shree's strategy is very well positioned to seize the future opportunities.
Our focus will continue to be on driving growth, expanding our market presence, engaging innovations to meet the evolving need of our customers, while keeping a very sharp and razor-sharp focus on our cost optimization initiatives. The broad features of the financial results, both on year-over-year basis and quarter-over-quarter basis, can be summarized as follows. Despite weak demand, we were able to increase our total volume from 8.92 million tons in Q1 of 2024 to about 9.64 million tons in the current quarter, resting on a growth of approximately 8%. The utilization for the quarter stood at about 76%. Please remind everybody that Shree has commissioned new capacities in this calendar year. Realization, of course, was down by about 6% from INR 4,771-INR 4,469, largely because of moderate demand conditions, but also because of change in our geographical mix.
The good part was the average fuel cost, which reduced from 2.34 CV last year to 1.76 CV in this quarter. Total EBITDA marginally decreased by 2% from INR 933 crore to INR 916 crore, and EBITDA per ton stood at about INR 9, a few rupees gained from INR 946 last year. Sequentially, total volumes were up about 1% from 9.53 to 9.64. Realizations dropped again about 5% from 4,721 per ton to 4,469 per ton. Fuel prices were more or less stable. However, other expenses increased due to increased stabilization expenses following commissioning of the two new plants, as I said, in the last few months. But also, advertisement expenses also increased due to the launch of the new brand identity, along with Bangur Magna, our premium brand. Total EBITDA accordingly went down from INR 1,327 crore to INR 916 crore.
EBITDA per ton also fell down from INR 1,392 to INR 950 per ton. During the quarter, the company commissioned its integrated cement unit in Guntur, District of Andhra Pradesh, with a production capacity of 3 million tons per annum. Besides this, the company's ongoing expansion projects in Jaitaran in Rajasthan of 6 million tons, Kodla in Karnataka by about 3 million tons, Baloda Bazar of Chhattisgarh at about 3.4 million tons, and Etah in Uttar Pradesh by 3 million tons, totaling about 15 million tons, are progressing satisfactorily, and all these projects are as per schedule. The company is working on further expanding its capacities in different geographies to reach its target ahead of schedule.
The company achieved a significant milestone, a very big record-breaking milestone of 1 gigawatt of installed power capacity with commissioning of a 19.5 megawatt solar power plant at its manufacturing unit in Andhra Pradesh in June 2024, taking its total power capacity to 1,003 megawatts. The company's 1 gigawatt capacity includes a mix of solar, wind, thermal, and waste recovery power plants with high priority for renewable energy to meet the necessary demand for cement production. We are further increasing our solar power capacity by 135 megawatts across our manufacturing locations in Rajasthan, Panipat, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh. With the launch of another greenfield ready-mix concrete plant in Hyderabad in Q1 2025, the company's RMC business, which has been set up recently, now has about seven plants with a total capacity of 624 cubic meters per hour.
Bangur Concrete units are fully equipped to manufacture all types of special concrete, offering advanced testing facilities, best technical manpower, and digitized solutions. The company plans to set up almost 100 Bangur Concrete plants over the next three to five years, operating in over 50 cities. The company's focus on decarbonization and renewable energy continues. The company's share of green power in total electricity consumption, as I have said in last call, also is one of the highest in the world, if not the highest in the world, and it stands at about 54% in Q1 2025, which is very high, one of the highest in this industry. With investment lined up to expand renewable energy generation capacity, the proportion is set to further increase as we commission the new plants. The company is also steadily making investments for increasing its usage of alternative fuels.
Notably, the company used about 0.27 lakh tons of agro waste in the quarter, thereby conserving fossil fuel equivalent to producing about 80 billion kcal and saved about 0.32 lakh tons of CO2. As part of this agro waste consumption, the company procured 8,837 tons of stubble during the quarter within the NCR region. The company also consumed 0.78 lakh tons of hazardous waste during Q1 2025, replacing the fossil fuel-based heat by 26.3 billion kcal. All the company's manufacturing locations are zero liquid discharge, treating, recycling, and reusing 100% of wastewater generated from our operations. In Q1 2025, the company achieved water positive levels for more than six times. With good progress on monsoon for the year as a whole, it aims to improve its water positive level to more than seven times for the whole year.
Bangur Cement further strengthened its brand presence with a comprehensive marketing plan across TV, print, media, digital platforms, and on-ground activations. Building on the success of the Solid Ghar Sirf Bangur campaign, the brand agency adapted its key messages for the national elections with the Vote Solid, Desh Solid campaign. This initiative encourages citizens to pledge for a stronger nation through responsible voting. This media and social campaigns engaged over 100 million people and encouraged 1.8 million citizens to pledge their commitment to vote. The INR 1,100,000 crore capital expenditure announced in the Union Budget 2024 signifies the government's commitment to modernize India's infrastructure through various projects and allocations. This, together with 3 crore additional houses in PM Awas Yojana and launch of Phase IV of PM Gram Sadak Yojana, will undoubtedly drive demand for cement and other building materials.
I have with me Mr. Ashok Bhandari, Senior Advisor, Mr. Subhash Jajoo, CFO, Mr. KK Jain, our Head of Finance, to take you through the Q&A sessions. Thank you.
Thank you very much, sir. We will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask questions may press star and one on the touch-tone phone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. You may please press star and one to ask questions. The first question is from the line of Aman Agarwal from Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, firstly, I wanted to, again, understand on the realizations part. You did mention about changing geographic mix in your opening remarks. If you can just elaborate on the same, and if you can provide us with the regional volume splits for this Q1.
Mr. Agarwal, please appreciate that if you are growing at a greater pace than your peer group, volume-wise, it will have some pertinent cost with it. Now, the cost estimation for taking additional volume was at level X based on the price prevailing in April. As the price and demand scenario both deteriorated, though we could get the additional volume, we could not get remunerative or better pricing. That is point number one. Point number two is there has been a marginal shift from North to East. Now, unfortunately, East, it was the lowest realization region, and so it pulled down my weighted average realization, having a consequential effect on EBITDA. This also resulted in a very marginal increase in the lead distance. The lead distance quarter-on-quarter increased by about 25 km. Yeah, 21, sorry, 21 km, which had its consequential effect on logistics costs.
Thirdly, as Neeraj pointed out to you guys, the stabilization, the consumption of major stores and spares for stabilizing both Navalgarh and Guntur had also increased beyond our estimates. This has all pulled down the EBITDA.
Understood, sir. Sir, secondly, on the region-specific volume growth and utilization, if you can provide the numbers, that would be really helpful.
Volume growth region-wise?
Yes, sir.
We will give you. I'm asking Mr. Subhash Jajoo to share this with you.
Sure. Yeah. As compared to last year, the total growth was 8%, and region-wise, it is 7% in North, 15% in East, and around minus 5% in South. And on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the growth is 1%, where it is minus 3% in North, 11% plus East, and minus 4% South.
Thank you, sir. I'll fall back into you for further questions.
Thank you. You may press star and one to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Jyoti Gupta from Nirmal Bang. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Two things I wanted to understand. One is you said that due to a change in geographics, you had to bear the cost. So just wanted to understand, while the realization on an overall basis declined for all the companies across the board, what was the contribution of realization coming from that aspect and the one wherein since you were shifting your products or started selling more in East, what were the costs? What was the contribution?
No, Jyoti, one second. Jyoti, you have to understand.
Yes, sir.
Basically, we have expanded capacity to 56 million ton now. We have to create a market to absorb this 20% additional capacity. North had some constraints because I had two very powerful competitors sitting with me there, which is UltraTech and Ambuja.
Correct, sir.
It was difficult to really have a better advantage vis-à-vis them in North, so my North volume declined. However, since the overall volume increased, the sales got transferred. It did not get transferred from North to East, but the additional quantity got sold in East, which changed the regional mix. Now, East being a lower realization market with falling demand and faster falling prices, the average realization, weighted average realization declined. It is not by design that we have moved.
No, I agree, sir. I understand that, sir. I completely agree to that also. Just to understand that, and I totally understand the realization across has reduced. So there's nothing in it. I'm not questioning the strategic part or anything. Just wanted to know what was the realization you would have anticipated in the North and what we actually got in the East. That is one of the reasons which is.
You need realization per region-wise. Am I correct?
Correct, sir. And also the impact since that volume did not get sold, which got sold in North, obviously that brought down your realization on a weighted average basis. So just to understand that.
The average realization in North stood at INR 4,641. The average realization in East stood at INR 4,154, and the average realization in south also stood at INR 4,620. Weighted average of this based on the percentages which Mr. Jajoo had given, if you want me to repeat it, I'll do that. Our sale percentage was 55% in North, 25% in East, and 10% in south. So you can do a matrix on your spreadsheet on which region resulted into what increase or decrease in the weighted average realization of the company.
I got it, sir. Can I ask one more question?
Please go ahead.
I wanted to understand the upturn, the turmoil in Bangladesh. I think somewhere we understand that volumes from North East are actually sold in Bangladesh. Now, I think that is somewhere going to be impacted, if I'm correct. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Do you think that is?
One second. We don't sell anything.
Not at all. Not at all. Bangladesh market is, as it is, a surplus market. Some amount of Bangladesh quality does come to parts of North East, but few districts of North East, not even full state. So Bangladesh turmoil, and therefore the economic consequences in cement will have, to our estimates, no impact on India.
Okay. And, sir, as anticipated, has Bangur Cement really the brand has actually picked up to your expectation?
Otherwise, how would I have grown volumes? This is incongruous, isn't it? If I say that I have gained volumes, then the brand acceptance is automatically established, isn't it?
Yes, maybe. I mean.
How maybe? No, let us be very clear. How maybe? If I have sold under the new brand more than last quarter, then the brand has been accepted, isn't it?
Right. But.
If there's a question mark on the acceptance of the brand, then I would not have sold more volumes. Am I correct?
Yes, sir. Okay, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Please, press star and one to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Jashandeep Singh Chadha from Nomura. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Chadha .
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Just two questions. Firstly, this time, as you mentioned in your opening remarks, the fixed cost as well as freight costs were high because of Guntur and because of changing region mix. So how much of this cost can we expect to revert back in the next couple of quarters because Guntur will stabilize it?
Let us take it on the other way. Ideally speaking, I would not like to spend a single penny more, but life is not ideal. As on date, about INR 52 crore in this quarter represents additional ship fares consumed in Guntur and Navalgarh. Now, hopefully, this 52 should not—there should not be any further expenditure, but if it is required to incur, it will be incurred. I cannot just say how the equipment will behave. One has got commissioned in January. One has got commissioned in April. So each plant has a stabilization period. In that stabilization period, both minor and major spares can be consumed, and we are hoping for the best.
Understood, sir. If I can just ask this in another way, how much time do you think it will take more to stabilize the unit?
Look, let us understand. My experience says that the general normalization time is between three to six months. However, sometimes some plants may take as much as 12 months also. So hopefully, everything is fine, but if something unforeseen happens, it happens. What to do?
Understood, sir. Thank you for that. And just.
They are the stabilization cost only. Ideally, if I would not have commercially commissioned the plants, they would have gone as a capital expenditure. But we have commercially initiated the production. They are in commercial production, so they have to take a revenue hit only.
Understood, sir. My second question is on pricing. So far, by the July exit prices, how much the price drop or what's the price trend that you have noticed in your core markets?
Let us understand this very clearly. Pricing is a function of demand. If the demand does not revive, the pricing power will not be there with the industry. The demand in Q1 was very weak. You see, the peer group, roughly, Ramco lost 21% in quantity. 16% was lost by Dalmia. UltraTech lost 9%. We gained 1%. Okay? Now, if you have such a wide range of demand fall, it will have its consequential effect on pricing.
Right.
Which will get reflected again in EBITDA.
Sir.
Listen, nothing has revived the demand in July. That everybody knows. August till date, we are weak. Now, you have to understand why this is happening. The central budget has still not been passed. It is still being debated. Once it gets passed, it goes to the President of India for her assent. Once she gives the assent, then the ministry allocates the resources. Once the resources are allocated to respective ministries, then officers start working on it, call for tenders for all the projects, including those INR 3 crore housing and 25,000 rural village highway connectivity. Looking at the current status of affairs, I don't think the presidential assent will come before the third week of August or something. That means by September, the resources will be allocated. Then somewhere in mid-September or end-September, you will have the tenders from the government.
So demand in this quarter is going to remain weak. If demand is going to remain weak, price will be weakening also. Please appreciate that I have never, in my 40-year career in this industry, ever given any guidance on price. And consequently, I don't give any guidance on EBITDA. I always give guidance on my cost. My cost this quarter is inflated because of higher logistic costs and higher unforeseen stores and spares expenses. They will all get normalized, but as EBITDA is price minus cost, even though I can establish my cost at a reasonable level without any one of these critical stores and spares, I cannot give you an EBITDA guidance because I don't know what the selling price will be. So Q2 for sure is not going to be good for the industry.
I will take an insurance on Q3 also because in Q3, you lose about 10 days of working because Diwali and Chhath Puja and all other festivities. So Q3 will be about 80 days instead of 90 days of working. Q2, the writing is on the wall. Even if all the tenders get floated by end September or early October, I don't think major changes will happen in demand scenario in Q3 as well. So I have no warmth in saying that Q2 and Q3 may not be very good. Q2 for sure. Q3, we can wait and watch.
Understood, sir. Thank you so much for such an elaborate answer. Just one last question, if I could squeeze in. So Shree Cement has performed better than its peers, even the industry on volume front in the first quarter. So your volume was over 40 million tonnes for FY25. It still stands? I mean, is there any change from the management?
No, no, no. If I have lost one, I've gained some share in Q1, but Q2, I'm going almost in tandem with the market. Q3 also, the same should happen. So I'm toning down my guidance by making an omnibus statement that we will grow in tandem with the market. If I can do it better, I will be the first one to beat the drum.
Understood, sir. Thank you so much for this. I'll join back with you.
Thank you. You may press star and one to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities. Please come up.
Yeah.
Hello, sir. Sir, if you start with some bookkeeping questions, I mean, our depreciation rate has increased significantly. It should be assumed as 666.
It has not increased, my dear friend. If you look at my total Gross Block, it has increased, isn't it? So depreciation is a function of my increase in CapEx.
This is a normal level to kind of expect, right?
Correct, correct. With this capacity, which is invoked today, I will guide you at depreciation of about INR 2,600 crores. However, Mr. Nevatia, since I have never interacted with you earlier, I have always maintained that don't please judge Shree Cement on net profit numbers. Look at the cash profit numbers, and I am happy to state that in spite of all the turmoil we have faced, our cash EPS has not fallen much. The cash profit for Shree in June 2023 stood at INR 898 crores, and it is at INR 957 crores this year.
Understood.
Now, if you look at cash EPS, then the cash EPS in June 2023 was INR 248, and it has increased to INR 259. These numbers are there in my results. You can look at them.
Yeah, that's great, sir. Sir, how should we look?
Listen, my dear friend, listen. Just hear me out one minute. We are basically a cash-focused organization. We are not a net profit-focused organization. We run the company on the principle that cash is real, rest is myth. So please be very careful while making any analysis based on net profit numbers.
That's clear, sir. Sir, I mean, what is the guidance for the cash tax rate for the year?
I am running a INR 16,000 crore CapEx expenditure here, and I am on record saying I will neither dilute nor borrow. We are keeping on increasing dividend. Last year, we paid INR 100. This year, we have paid INR 105. So there will be an increasing dividend trend. Rest all will go into CapEx.
Sir, I'm asking about the tax rate, cash tax rate. What should we kind of expect? I mean, last year, I think it was around 18%-19%.
My apologies, Nevatia. Cash tax rate is approximately in my result.
So we should expect this to continue? I mean, this low rate for this year atleast ?
This is calculation of profit before tax. If I am not being able to give you an EBITDA guidance, how can I say that this will remain the same? If it is after EBITDA now, my dear friend, I am saying my depreciation will remain almost the same.
[Foreign language]
Hello?
Yes, sir.
[Foreign language]
Sir, just if you can give some color, how is the quarter started? July every year, the volume has been very weak for the industry. Is it a decline?
No.
Is it a decline as far as volumes are concerned for the industry?
For sure.
Sorry?
Yes, for sure.
Okay, okay. On a year-on-year basis. Got it. And sir, are prices down from last quarter's average?
Mr. Nevatia, for follow-up questions, I would request you to kindly rejoin the queue, sir. I'm sorry.
Sure, sure. Sure. Thank you.
Thank you so much, sir. Request to all the participants to kindly limit their questions to two per participant. Should you have a follow-up question, please rejoin the queue. You may please press star and one to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Rishabh from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. This is Pulkit from Goldman. Sir, my question is on the Navalgarh plant. I remember when we had spoken last time, you mentioned the advantage of this plant is that it is very close to the cream market of Delhi NCR, and we can get there really quickly with decent realizations as well. Now, you just made the statement that one of the reasons why you couldn't do much on volumes in North despite yes, sir.
One second. Be very careful. Somewhere, there has been a miscommunication. We are entitled to certain industrial subsidy on our Navalgarh plant. Now, the subsidies are state-related, right? Each state has its own policy for the plants to get in commission in that state. And the subsidy is restricted to the amount of GST collected within the state of Rajasthan because Navalgarh is in Rajasthan. Now, if I sell quantity from here to NCR or Delhi, I lose on the subsidy in the state of Rajasthan. Okay? Point number one. Point number two, Navalgarh logistic advantages will kick in only when we commission our Etah grinding unit in UP, which is likely to be in the fourth quarter of this year. When the logistics compensates the subsidy, which is receivable from the state of Rajasthan, then I can jolly well and more profitably by using Etah grinding unit sell there.
So at the moment, Navalgarh is majorly catering to Rajasthan. [Foreign language]
[Foreign language] My understanding may have been different. But the point I was trying to make is that you've got Navalgarh, and then there is going to be another 6 million tonnes in Rajasthan, which is pretty substantial. You just said ki there are two behemoths in that particular region, which are continuing to supply. Sir, I'm just trying to understand in terms of our expansion.
In my interaction with Goldman Sachs of over 25 years, have I ever shown you a fear psychosis of competition?
No, sir.
[Foreign language] I try to understand. 39 years back, I was 0.6 million tonnes. I was nobody in the industry. Today, I am number three player all India. [Foreign language]
[Foreign language] So volume growth from this plant will be mostly focused on Rajasthan based on what you just said. And that's how we should think about it.
Till I commission Etah.
[Foreign language] Understood, sir.
[Foreign language] My NCR or my EBITDA, I can gain more than what I am gaining on subsidy, I'll do a cross-border sale. [Foreign language] , everything is dependent on how much money you make per tonne, inclusive of subsidy or not including the subsidy. Overall profitability [Foreign language]
Understood, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Prateek Kumar from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yes, Prateek.
Hello.
Yeah.
Waiting, sir. I have this couple of bookkeeping questions on CapEx. We continue to expect INR 4,000 crore kind of CapEx annually for year-over-year next year.
Yes, yes.
Also, this 1.76 on fuel cost kcal base. So is this further savings expected on this number going forward, or this is the?
Please understand. There is a last phone call or maybe somewhere, either individually or collectively, I've maintained that my order book or my coal pipeline is at this level, 176, or it was 172, I think. Going forward, as we book, as the price is decreasing, this cost should come down. Average fuel cost, let me put it again, net of alternative fuel at the moment is INR 1.74 per kilocalorie.
So INR 1.74 or maybe INR 1.72 is something which you are looking at going later part of the year and?
It is based on my committed orders to various suppliers. This is not an assumptive number. This is an actual number. It may go down because the petcoke prices are going down. Typically, we maintain three to four months of pipeline for coal. So three to four months for coal is INR 1.74. New orders, if they are released at a lower rate, the average fuel price may come down.
What about power cost, power mix, which is like 54% of our Green Power currently? We are looking at this number to go to.
What do you want there?
The alternative power mix can go from 54% number to what number going forward?
Today, it is at 54%. By June 2025, this should go to 62%.
Right. Okay. My last question on your annual incentives based on several new plants which are commissioning. Our annual incentives have, I think, come down to INR 150 crore range, INR 125 crore-INR 150 crore range in past 2 years versus INR 250 crore, which we used to have earlier.
How are we going to? I could not understand your question.
The annual incentives or subsidies which we used to have.
Wait a minute. Wait a minute. You are saying that the run rate of subsidy will go down as the time passes. You get additional subsidy on Navalgarh also. But please understand, I do not recognize any subsidy in my books of accounts unless realized in cash. Because if I take that credit, I have to pay unnecessary taxes, which is a cash cost. I have always maintained that I do my books on cash basis. I do not recognize any subsidy which I have not realized in the year.
Yeah. So what is the annual run rate of cash incentives which you are sort of looking at from FY 2025, 2026?
Look, Prateek. All state governments are tight in financial positions, and I cannot predict when they will release what. As soon as it is released, you will find it in my other operating income number. I would not like to hazard a guess on that.
Okay. And last question on power business. Can you give the power EBITDA number for the quarter?
We have taken a decision that you guys keep on asking UltraTech, and they don't give their breakdown of EBITDA into gray, white, RMC, and others. We are also going to give you only blended EBITDA. We are not going to do any disclosure on power quantity or power EBITDA. My total and composite EBITDA for the company will be reported quarter by quarter, and I will refrain from answering what is power and what is non-power.
Okay. Will you be giving out power revenues, or that also you won't be giving?
I will not be. In any case, a revenue stream doesn't come to the shareholder house. You get benefited out of the EBITDA only. So giving you a split of revenue, how does it matter? I have given you my quarterly average revenue of cement business.
Sure, sir. Thank you. These are my questions.
We can give you whatever it can.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from the line of Navin Sahadeo from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir, and thank you for the opportunity. Sir, two questions. One is observation, and correct me if I'm wrong, but in the quarterly breakup of sales, quarter-on-quarter, of course, we have done a commendable job of volumes rising 1% where most of the players are down in the range of 10% or more, and we have shown a growth. But my observation here was that, and since the breakup you've given, my observation was that we saw an expansion in Navalgarh and also in South Guntur, but our quarter-on-quarter volume growth has actually gone increased 11%, as you said, in the East region. So, I mean.
Just a question. North mein decrease kyun tha because competitive pressures from powerful players was there. Okay?
[Foreign langauge] In the East, we have grown in East because East was having more it was possible for us to sell more. East, you have to understand, it's very difficult. Please understand that, yes, Guntur we expanded. South is doing very bad. South realizations are very bad. It will come up for sure. INR 15,000 crore for Amravati if we have given, and INR 26,000 crore he has given to Bihar, then these two regions should do better relatively. Ahmedabad demand should pick up. Guntur will get more viably utilized in Guntur because of this INR 15,000 crore allocation. And Bihar to INR 26,000 crore. [Foreign langauge]
[Foreign langauge] T he plants which we put with the 50-year vision, if in one quarter they have not shown the desired result, it's all right. How does it matter? The problem is that on a quarter to quarter basis, whereas our decisions of setting up plants are on a 50-year vision. Some quarter you will may go up, you may go down.
Sure, sure. No worries. No worries on that. Sir, second question was, did we also then saw some shift more towards non-trade for the quarter, which would have had some impact, and hence element that once, let's say, demand normalizes, that shift could also reverse and give that tailwind?
The other question is correct. I don't have the numbers readily available with me that I will share with you, but yes, the non-trade component has gone up.
Understood.
[Foreign language]
Sure. Just one more question, if I may slip in quickly. Railway sidings was the next, I think, efficiency CapEx that we were pursuing. Of course, we are doing or we are far ahead.
[Foreign language]
Yeah.
[Foreign language]
Yeah. So sorry, if I could just request you, by which quarter or from when can we start seeing some benefits of that?
What I suggest is that paper is just not in front of me at the moment. We will send you a mail of each power connection, sorry, railway connectivity and each plant by which date. I will send you that.
Sure, sure. Thank you. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this will be the final reminder, and no further reminders will be given for the question and answer. That you may please press star and one to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from AXIS Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hiya. Good evening. Thanks for the opportunity. So just on volumes, while your volume growth has been above industry, is it also possible to split it between the cement and clinker?
Clinker is nothing, yeah. What are we talking? Clinker is hardly anything. In a 96.4 million ton volume, sorry, 96,040,000 volume, clinker may be hardly INR 20 lakh. We can say maybe it's a year. We can say, yeah. Clinker volumes are there. It's quite low. Don't worry. I'll give you the number once again. Clinker production. 96.4 and 91.2. So out of INR 96 lakh ton, only INR 4 lakh ton is clinker.
Okay. Okay. Understood. So in Dachepalli, where you have just commissioned the unit, I believe it's a 1.5 million-ton clinker and a 3 million-ton grinding. So what's the idea in that excess grinding? Is there a next clinker line which will be coming up that will balance out the excess grinding there, or will the clinker come from some other source?
No, no. Wait a minute. Transporting clinker is not a cheap exercise. It's a trade-off. You see, please understand, we have to look at overall logistics cost optimization. It is not that, okay, one clinker kyo gay diya yaha grinding jada kyo laga diya. In the total equation, there is a concept of naked cement realization. That is money coming to my pocket, rest is all reimbursements. Freight is a reimbursement. GST is a reimbursement. Packing cost is a reimbursement. [Foreign language] And I will keep on paying for it, that yes, we get another chance of setting up a clinker line because of vibrancy in demand.
Sure. But generally, that market is like an OPC market. So in that sense, they can also.
Now, you are trying to question our business system. Is it?
No, no, no. I'm just trying to understand how the balance will come together.
One second. I have explained to you that we also do our calculations. We also know what is required. So I have said that as per our calculation, we are fine. You are welcome to believe or not believe it. But please don't question our 40-year-old wisdom here.
Sure, sure. Definitely not. Also, on RMC, what are the targets for?
Once again, once again. Let me put it in a different manner. RMC is the future, is correct. RMC has its own business learning curve, is also correct. We have just started it. It is peanuts compared to our overall operations. Let us operate these five, six plants, see what kind of profitability is there, learn the nuances of the business, and then we will expand. Yes, we will go into Bangur Concrete. But time go by. We'll come back. We'll come back with exact profitability and capacity numbers, but give us some breathing time. We have just started it.
Thank you, sir. We'll take the next question from the line of Parth Bhavsar from Investec. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir. Sir, all my questions have been answered. Thank you.
Let me conclude by saying that Q2 is going to be bad because there is no demand, and Q3, because of festivities and other reasons, I am not very hopeful. All vibrancy should get reflected in Q4 because in Q4, the government departments are also under pressure to exhaust their budgets. So Q4 should be better. Let us see how things pan out. Hello?
Sir, the participant has left the queue. We'll move on to the next question.
No, that's fine. I'm fine.
Yes.
Hello?
Sir, we'll move on to the next question, which is from the line of Rajesh Kumar Ravi from HDFC Securities. Please go ahead.
Oh, okay. Right.
Hi, sir. Good evening, Rajesh. So we are from HDFC. Sir, just a few housekeeping questions. What was the blended cement and trade mix in this quarter? Mid-distance, you already mentioned has partially gone up. And yeah, first, these two numbers, and just wanted to understand, this is the volume split and NSR trend which you have shared for Q1. Sequentially, it works out to be that in all the three markets, realizations are down by around 5%-6%. Is that understanding correct?
Ravi sir, I had told you that I do not, in front of me, have any trade and non-trade number at the moment. Most of the housekeeping questions are related to product mix and quantitative details. I suggest please drop a mail to Mr. Jajoo, and he will reply to you ASAP. I do not have those numbers because I thought that quantities are orbital.
No, sir, I'll take that. Let me come to the most important question, sir. You see the current dynamic, the M&As which are happening in the industry, prices are going through in terms of the payback period, depending upon the asset class. What is your understanding on the consolidation and the subsequent impact on market dynamics? How do you look at the pricing? See, near-term, obviously, demand is weak. However, we don't see.
Great question. Let me explain you. Let me explain you slightly differently. Yes, there are targets for acquisition. Yes, further consolidation will happen. But the guys who are the contenders for such consolidations would like to keep the prices of cement depressed to have a better bargain. This is one of the major factors why the prices are not being increased. Yes, consolidation will happen. Yes, in short term, there may be pain, but consolidation always pains longer.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraint, we'll take one last question from Ronald Siyoni from Sharekhan Ltd. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good afternoon, sir.
Thank you for the opportunity.
Yeah. Hello?
Yeah.
Hello.
Yes, sir.
Yeah, sir. I just wanted to understand on the two to three-year perspective. As an industry, we are expecting at least 30-40 million tons of capacity additions per annum over the next two years at least. So as you said, that demand may revive during Q4. So what we are portraying a picture like supply would be far exceeding the demand over the next two years. So is the reading correct or whether?
Thank you, sir. Give me two minutes. We are at about 450 million tons as of 31st March 2024.
Yes, sir.
Now, if you take an 8% demand rise or a demand equivalent to the GDP growth rate, which Navin had always been advocating to me, then you are looking at a 7.5%-8% demand escalation, 7.5% GDP. You agree?
Right.
7.5% of 45 million is how much, my friend? Roughly 30 million tons?
Right.
All 30 million tons do not come on 31st March or 1st April. They are spread over a period.
Right, sir.
The effective capacity will be far less than the number you are talking about.
Okay.
I do not find any supply-side pressure, sorry, any demand distortion because of capacity creation.
Okay. Thank you very much, sir. Thank you very much.
Thank you. As that was the last question for today, I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Vaibhav Agarwal for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Yeah. Thank you. On behalf of PhillipCapital India Pvt Ltd, we'd like to thank the Shree Cement Ltd for the time on the call and many thanks for joining the call. Thank you very much, sir. Michelle, we'll now conclude the call. Thank you.
Thank you, members of the management. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of PhillipCapital India Pvt Ltd, that concludes this conference. We thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.