Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Shree Cement Limited Q3 FY26 Earnings Call hosted by ICICI Securities Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Navin Sahadeo from ICICI Securities. Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Navin.
On behalf of ICICI Securities, hello? Yeah.
Sir, you can go ahead.
Thank you. Good evening, everyone. On behalf of ICICI Securities, I welcome you all to the Q3 FY26 earnings call of Shree Cement Limited. Today, we have with us Mr. Ashok Bhandari, Senior Advisor of Shree Cement, Mr. Subhash Jajoo, CFO, Mr. S.S. Khandelwal, Company Secretary, and Mr. K.K. Jain, who is, Head Finance and Accounts. So without any further ado, I hand over the call to the management for their opening comments. Over to you, sir.
I had been following the practice of not making an opening statement because it unnecessarily repeats all the numbers which are already in your hands. So to utilize the time.
Sorry, can you hear yourself? We missed the opening.
Good evening, everybody. This is Ashok Bhandari. As per my past practice, I shall not be making an opening statement as all the numbers are with you in the form of results. We may start the Q&A to use the time more efficiently. Thank you. Hello?
Yes, sir. Should I open for the Q&A?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yes, please.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their Touchstone Telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Rahul Gupta from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi, thank you for taking my question. A couple of questions. First, given you are prioritizing absolute earnings, your volumes have lagged the overall industry, to some extent. Now, in fact, your operating rate should be more like mid-50s utilization. Now, how should we think about your capacity expansion plans and target of 80 million tons from the next two years' perspective? How should we look at your volumes from the next two years' perspective? That's my first question. Thank you.
Mr. Gupta, thank you for your question. Now, please understand that since October 2024, I had been maintaining that we will be concentrating on value over volumes. That was with a purpose. The purpose was very simple. We had a large divergence between our sales price and sales price of competitors like UltraTech. If you will notice, by restraining our volumes, we have narrowed the gap from about INR 30 a bag to about INR 15 a bag. Now, naturally, if you want to maintain discipline on pricing and narrow down the gap, you had to take the pain of sacrificing volumes.
That is what we did, and I'm very happy to report that the December growth, though aided by additional demand, over November, volume-wise, November we sold about 2.7 million tons. December we sold 3.3 million tons, sorry, 2.7 million and 3.3 million tons.
January is more or less in line with December 2025. We expect the same momentum to continue with a much higher realization, and it should automatically improve our capacity utilization. On the other hand, the capacity utilization will further be augmented by our concentrating more and more on RMC plants, which shall give me a better geographical reach, a more logistical cost optimization, and increase the volumes as well. Now, coming to your second question of our declared capacity of 80 by 2029, 2029 is still far off. We are still sitting in 26. We shall get back to you in due course.
Got it, got it. So two follow-ups. One, given you have narrowed the gap from INR 30- INR 15, is it fair to say that you would continue to focus on reducing this further? And my second question is, what would be the absolute revenues of the RMC business, and how much, cement your RMC would be, would be using internally? Thank you.
My dear friend, your first question is infructuous. You are saying that will you keep on reducing the gap? It is obvious. I'll keep on increasing my profits. So that is one part. The increase in profit mainly in cement is because of top line. The cost is more or less the same for the industry, except in few factors. Point number two, as of date, we have 19 RMC plants. We intend to take it to 45 within the next 6-8 months.
Means you can easily assume that by September 2026, the number of plants will increase to 45 from 19. We started RMC about two years back, and in three, three and a half years, we will be achieving 45 plants, whereas, leading players in RMC like UltraTech have over the last 25 years set up only 100 plants. So we are on track.
It is very difficult for me because much depends on how the demand scenario emerges. But certainly, all my RMC plants will be using my cement, and it will aid the cement quantity and capacity utilization.
Thank you. Just, what would be the revenues from RMC as of now, and what share of how much cement will be used?
It's INR 71 crore for,
One second. I'll, I'll ask Mr. K.K. Jain to give the answer.
It is INR 71 crore for the quarter.
71 crore, right. For the quarter, we did INR 71 crore, my friend, on 19 plants.
Got it. And how much captive consumption of cement is going into RMC?
44%-45% is the captive consumption for RMC plant for the quarter.
Got it. Thank you. Wish you all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pinakin Parekh from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you very much, sir. Sir, what is, in the September quarter, the sales volume was 7.9 million tons. What would be the comparable sales volume in the December quarter?
8.7.
That would imply, roughly 7% decline in blended realization, which seems to be higher, than what the peers have reported. What would be driving this decline in realization, sir?
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. You asked. You have to do your math correctly. Please understand that my per ton realization has gone up. The blended realization, I don't know how you are calculating. If you want, we'll give you a detailed calculation sheet. Mr. Jajoo, CFO of the company, will send you a mail, or you can send him a mail asking precise questions. I think you are mistaken somewhere.
Got it, sir. We were just basically dividing net revenues by size.
Yeah, sir, sir, sir. So that is the point. You have to be slightly careful, my friend. You write a mail to Mr. Jajoo, and Mr. Jajoo will give you the reply.
Sir, what would be the comparable Q on Q change in pricing for the company?
One second. December 2024 realization—he's talking outside, yeah. December 2024, it was INR 4,652. December 2025. September 2025—and, December 2024 is INR 4,554. I don't have the September 2025 numbers.
Got it, got it.
Sir, any color on the CapEx for next year at this point of time? How much will the company be spending?
As I said, we'll be adding about 26-30 RMC plants. The CapEx expected is about INR 500, yes.
INR 500, yeah.
In FY 2026.
Sure. And sir, my last question, when it looks on a per ton basis, there is a decline in power and fuel cost, around.
Obviously, there are two reasons. One is that my per kilocalorie cost is lowest in the industry, sitting at 1.56. And my renewable energy has kept on increasing, and it has crossed almost 60%, it has reached almost 61%.
Okay, okay. So this trend should continue, right?
This trend? Why it should not improve, my friend? You see, as far as the per kilocalorie cost is concerned, you have to understand that it is the function of international coal prices or petroleum prices. I cannot take a call there. What I can say is, over the 40-year existence of this company, we have always been the lowest fuel lowest price procurer of fuel, and that is why my fuel cost is lower. My renewable energy portfolio has kept on increasing. We are having the highest renewable portfolio today, and we have reached almost 61%, and we are trying to add 2% or 3% more. As far as Kodla, the new unit, which is due to be commissioned by March, I'll be having a waste heat recovery system there, which will add onto my renewable or alternative energy.
The energy cost should logically come down if the coal and petroleum prices do not go up.
Got it, got it, got it. That's very clear. Thank you very much, sir.
Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rajesh Ravi from HDFC Securities. Please go ahead. Sir, you may unmute your line.
Hello.
Rajesh, hello.
Yes, Rajesh.
Am I audible?
Yes, you are.
Yeah, hi, sir. Good evening, sir. Just a few housekeeping questions. What were the trade, non-trade, trade and blended cement share in this quarter and lead distance?
I will give the line to Mr. Subhash Jajoo. He will give you the answer.
The lead distance for the quarter is 446 km, and trade sale is 65%. What else you want?
Blended cement.
Blended is also 65%.
Okay. If I look at your fuel cost sequentially, this has come down by around INR 0.10. So, there is a INR 50 per ton saving, and your green power mix remains similar. So, you know, how is the power cost per ton at a company level?
Power ton? Come back.
Power cost per unit.
Power cost per.
Average power blended.
Yeah, one second, one second. Means bought out and renewable and waste heat recovery and everything?
Yeah. Yes, yes.
I may not be having that data immediately. I will send you.
We will get back to you, Rajesh, on this.
Sure, sure, sir.
Yeah, certainly. The realization for the quarter you mentioned was INR 4,625, right? Gray cement.
4652, I think. Yes.
Which is, almost 3%-4% decline quarter-on-quarter.
That is what I'm trying to figure out. Earlier, somebody had asked a similar question.
No, on a blended basis because you don't disclose the power revenues. That is why.
Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh.
The blended number. Yeah.
Oh, Ravi sir, do you want me to take a minute? My bad, sir. What I'm saying is that we will, you write a mail to us. We will reconcile the numbers and get back to you.
Understood. You know, just wanted to understand. You mentioned that, you know, you'll be focused more on bridging the gap and getting a better price and realization. So at least on the volume, what sort of growth one should build in for, you know, this year? Because earlier, you were looking at 37-38 million tons for this year, which seems there could be a slip of 1-2 million tons on the volumes. So,
But I explained. I already explained what was the rationale.
Right. Understood. So.
Once again, Mr. Ravi, please hear me out fully. Number one, the demand in October and November was low, that you know.
Right.
Which I had no control. December, the demand picked up. We have picked up more. January, the trend is likely similar to December. We don't find any letup in February and March because you the central government budget has to be spent by 31st March. So I don't think there'll be any letup in volumes. I can easily and with a great deal of confidence say that within this quarter, we will do 9-9.5 million tons. In total, yes, I will not be growing at 7%-8%. But then that was a function of low demand. What to do?
Right, right.
But going forward, I'm confident that we should do you see, today, the RBI governor has pointed out to a 7.4% GDP growth rate for 2026/2027 in his MPC. And, I had been maintaining that cement generally grows at 1 to 1.1x GDP national GDP. So next year, I expect the demand to be around 7.5%-8%.
Great, great, sir. Lastly, if you could share the UAE performance, which you did in last quarter.
It is getting.
Volume.
It is getting better by the day.
Okay. What will you share the volume revenue in the metric numbers?
I don't have the UAE numbers with me at the moment. We'll share it with you.
Okay. Great, sir. That's all for now. I'll come back into you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Indrajit Agarwal from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. A couple of questions. First,
I'm sorry. I missed your name. I missed your name.
Indrajit Agarwal from CLSA.
Uh-huh. Boliye.
Sir, first, on pricing, can you indicate how the trends have been so far in January and heading into February, both?
As I, as I said, the December pricing was much better, and the same trend is continuing. We don't see any letup in demand because of the, because of the central government compulsion of completing the, exhausting the budget within this quarter. So if demand is good, then pricing will remain good. As a matter of fact, as we have been focusing and we have been achieving convergence in, or reducing the delta between our price and the UltraTech price, I expect the same trend to maintain maybe at a slower pace because I'll be doing volumes now also.
And sir, secondly, do you think that, from now on, we will continue to grow ahead of industry or largely in line with industry at least?
Let us say, if I want to push volume, then I have to sacrifice price, isn't it? Both don't go hand in hand. So it is a calculated, equilibrium game which we have to play. And as the scenario emerges, we'll keep on updating you. As on date, I expect no letup in demand and no letup in pricing.
Sure. Thank you. That's all from my side.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Jashandeep Singh Chadha from Nomura. Please go ahead.
Oh, Chadha sir, why are you troubling me?
Time. Thank you so much, sir, for the opportunity. I won't trouble you much, sir. Just a couple of quick questions. Firstly, sir, you know, Shree Cement has been operating in multiple regions. I wanted to understand a basic understanding of how all the regions are performing, not necessarily from Shree's perspective, but from industry perspective. And from Shree's.
One second, one second. Can we be at divergence with the industry region-wise so we will be in line with the industry only? Exactly how much Shree has sold in each region of its capacity, the number I am asking Mr. K.K. Jain to share with you, that in this region, say, Shree's capacity is 100, then region-wise, how much we have sold in this quarter? And that should be roughly the line of operation of all Pan-India cement companies. Regional companies, too, it's not comparable. So I'm asking Mr. K.K. Jain to give you the reply.
Yes. In North region, the sale is 53, 5.3 million—sorry, 5.3 million. East, 23 million, and South, 11 million. In percentage term , it is 61%. In North, East, 26%, and South, 13%.
Thank you so much, sir. This is very valuable information. But I was also looking from, you know, from January and going ahead, which region you are seeing, you know, uptick coming in volume demand.
What is the date today, my friend? It is 6th of February. What is the date today?
I mean, January onwards.
I mean, January onwards.
January numbers come to me.
Okay, sir. I'll maybe, you know, once they're out, I'll reach out.
I have a second question. What's the second?
Yes, sir. Second question was on the—I understand—on per kilocalorie value, Shree Cement has been the lowest and will continue to be the lowest. But with petroleum, you know, international price going on, what kind of impact will be on the cost for fourth quarter? If anything, you can give us.
Please understand that nothing stops me from changing from coal to petroleum or petroleum to coal. I have multi-fuel burners. This is a constant exercise which my purchase people do, that which mix gives them the best landed fuel cost. I am not at all concerned with international prices. I am concerned with landed cost of fuel because that is the actual cost to me. So this is a constant exercise. As on date, we are at 1.56 per kilocalorie. It may remain same for January, but it may go up in February and March. In any case, I don't think it should increase 1.80, which is my peer group fuel cost.
Understood, sir. Understood. And thank you for that. Just one last, more of a clarification. If I can understand from your previous, you know, answer to the previous question, you are expecting 7%-8% whatever growth from the industry, and Shree Cement will largely be in line with the industry. Is my understanding right, sir?
Your understanding is correct with a caveat that we have generally grown better than the industry. Last one year, you leave because that was with the strategy of narrowing the gap between the selling prices. But once we have achieved that, then probably we may grow better than the industry also. But let the time tell its own story.
Sure, sir. Sure, sir. Thank you so much, and all the best for the future, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you, sir. Two questions. First, in the last on-call Q2, you highlighted that investors should look at the Shree Cement from the console perspective. But in the last two quarters, you have shared the UAE volume. And this time, this is not part of the press release. And also, post the call when we try to connect with the CFO, sir, Mr. Jajoo. He is not ready to share the numbers. So how can one look at these things? This is the first part. Second, what.
One second, sir. No, no, let me stop you here. One second. Do you mean to say that we have not published consolidated numbers?
No, volume. I'm saying the volume.
Wait, wait, wait. No, one second. So please go through the results. I don't think you have gone through the results. Please go through the results. Stand-alone is there. Consolidated is there. And you very well know how to calculate UAE, from the two numbers. So what are we trying to say? You try to make the simple things difficult at all the times whenever we receive your call.
Sorry, sir. When did I make it difficult? I'm sincerely.
Let us not argue on this. You ask your second question.
Yeah, Sir, what's our clarification on the MCA investigation that is under Section 210?
There is no investigation. It is a routine inquiry. They have asked for information. The information has been shared. They have not come up with any report. So what do I do?
Okay. No issue, sir.
Yeah.
Yeah. Sir, road rail mix for this quarter and fuel mix for this quarter.
Mr. Jajoo, road rail is 88 and 12.
Fuel mix, petroleum, and coal?
It's 76% petroleum, 6% coal, and balance is alternative fuels.
CAPEX till now, how much we have done and for effort?
Till now, we have done around INR 1,500 crore. Another INR 400-500 crore is to be done in this quarter.
May we request that you return to the question queue for a follow-up question? The next question is from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. Just, first question on this strategy on pricing versus utilization. You've added the capacity in North and South in the past few quarters. How do you look at an ideal utilization, given these capacities have been added but overall volume increase is not there? So is there an ideal utilization you look at when starting an asset to optimize the operating leverage, fixed cost there?
Please appreciate that I had always been maintaining that demand is not in the hand of any cement manufacturer. Demand emanates from overall growth within the economy. We are not happy with our current capacity utilization. We are taking steps to correct it. We have corrected it largely, to some extent in January. I have also pointed out that we are concentrating on setting up more and more RMC plants, which should give me a fillip in capacity utilization. But at this point of time, especially in this quarter because this quarter may be, the demand may be abnormally high due to pull from the central agencies, we may better answer this question in the first quarter of 2026/2027.
Sure. Sir, in that context, the focus on utilization, how do we look at the 80 million? And would you rather wait to improve utilization? And what's the progress on Jaisalmer, on environmental?
Generally, your thinking is correct that we are not announcing specific sites and specific plants only because we want the capacity utilization to increase. I had hinted that 80 by 2029 may get deferred or may culminate; it is completely dependent on how the demand turns out in 2026/2027. So this is a question for which I don't have a ready answer. I would like to expand. Please understand that Shree Cement has increased its capacity 110x from 1985. Means in the last 40 years, we have grown 110x in capacity. So our growth has not been lagging. Our CAGR for growth is 12.5%+. And we expect to do it better. But then you must set up capacity not for an idle capital but for productive capital, which is a function of demand.
If the demand doesn't have the necessary leverage, what is the point in setting up capacity and keep on operating at 56%, 60%, 62%? Ideally, we should reach 70% kind of a capacity utilization. Now, whether it takes place, in one year or in one and a half years, time can only tell.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you, sir, so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Siddharth Mehrotra from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. Sorry if I missed this number. So what is the CAPEX we are expecting for, say, 2027?
Look, my major focus is going to be 26 RMC plants, 26 or 30. Per RMC plant, it costs.
INR 5.4-INR 5 crore.
It costs about INR 5 crore. So INR 150 crore visibility I have. Balance is completely dependent on how I attain how I try to attain. Like, June 26th, sorry, March 26th, we'll be completing Kodla plant. We have spent about INR 2,000 crore of CAPEX in this financial year. Next financial year, I am giving you INR 150 crore CAPEX. I am also working on railway sidings, which should be about how many crore per kilometer?
Around INR 150 crore-INR 200 crore, to be honest.
About INR 200 crore-INR 250 crore on railway siding. So INR 400 crore-INR 500 crore of CAPEX visibility is clearly there. Balance visibility, I'll be able to give you once I start planning my further capacity addition. So you will have to give me one more quarter to give you more clarity on this. However, you are fully you may be fully aware that we are completely debt-free, and we have about INR 6,000 crore of free cash sitting in our balance sheet. So we are not worried about the quantum of CAPEX we can we need to spend. We would like to be watchful of the demand and the potential capacity utilization.
Understood, sir. So essentially, that means, we are planning to put at least two railway sidings, approximately INR 150- INR 200 crore per siding, as well as the RMC plant. INR 500 crore, we have clarity, and maybe some additional CapEx based on whatever your capacity is you'll sort of decide. Is that correct?
Which I will be able to tell you either in next on-call or in the June on-call. I don't know. You will have to give us time.
Okay. Second, sir, could you sort of quantify what sort of industry growth was prevalent in Q3 for the industry? Some ballpark numbers?
The Q3, you see, it is not comparable. I had a different strategy of operating my plants. The industry had a different strategy. So they are not apples-to-apples comparison. I was concentrating more on value, less on volume. So obviously, my growth was lower than the industry. If you want, we can share those numbers, and those numbers will be available elsewhere also. But you can write a mail either to Mr. Subhash Jajoo or to me, and we will give you the reply. We have not grown to our fullest capacity to our fullest, what should I say, potential by design. Now, we'll see how it goes.
Got it, sir. Got it, sir. Sir, can I just please get the power mix split, sir, if possible? If 34 MW was the total green power mix, there should also be additional captive power. So could you just lay out what are the individual components? The solar, WHRS?
Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Mr. Jajoo will give you exact power plant capacities of various kinds.
See, our total power capacity is currently 1,137 MW, out of which 503 is the thermal power capacity. Balance is all green. WHR is 265 MW. Solar is 314 MW, and wind is 56 MW. So 64 MW of green capacity, 503 MW of thermal, total 1,137 MW. Understood, sir. Just one last question, sir, if I could squeeze in. Sir, a couple of your peers have sort of sounded out that this is a very interesting and exciting opportunity in UAE to either sort of increase their stake in subsidies there or expand their capacities there in additional grinding units. So, sir, given the fact that you already have a long-standing exposure to that geography.
Let me stop you here, my dear friend.
Yes.
Do you think that if there is a profit opportunity, Shree Cement will let it go a-be gging? If there is potential, if there is real demand pick up, if the operations are profitable or good enough profitable, we'll certainly do whatever is required to be done. We have the largest cement plant in UAE today in our control.
Well, nothing has changed, at least from our perspective, in terms of the market opportunity.
I would not like to comment on that as of yet. I'll comment in March.
Understood, sir. Thanks. Thanks a lot for your time, sir.
[Foreign language]
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Tushar Chaudhari from Prabhudas Lilladher Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir.
Good evening. First of all, please do me a favor. If you meet Amisha Vora tomorrow, please give my regards to her.
Sure, sir. Sir, just wanted to know, this employee cost is a little bit higher this quarter. Is it because of Baloda Bazar?
No, read note number three of the result.
Okay. I missed that then. Impact, no. So volume, actually, I wanted to know how much is the.
Listen, the new labor code has made me provide for all back liabilities, which is amounting to INR 56 crore. We do not show any expense as an exceptional expense because it is all in routine course of business. So we have additionally provided INR 56 crore as required by the law, and we have disclosed this by way of a note in note number 3. This is all employee cost. Now, what is the second question?
Volume, 2% growth is return. Last year, it was 8.77%.
Last year, what had happened, my dear friend? Last year, what was my realization? This year, what is my realization? I gave you some.
I have only blended realizations.
December 24, my realization was INR 4,554. Is it correct? Yes, sir. December 25, my realization is INR 4,652. You sell to lose money or you sell to make money. We have deliberately constrained our volumes to decrease the delta between other selling price and my selling price. We have.
Understood that.
We have reduced it by 50%. [Foreign language] Now, we'll see what to do.
No, no. I understood that, sir. You had explained it pretty well earlier. 2% volume growth is then including clinker?
That I don't remember it often.
Yes, Shree Cement is 2% volume growth.
I will get back to you. You send a mail to Jajoo, and Jajoo will get back to you with the exact numbers.
Sure, sir. Thanks. Thanks, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Navin Sahadeo. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir. Am I audible?
How can you not be audible?
Thank you, sir.
You are the host back.
Thank you, sir. So my question was on this value versus volume strategy in the context of market share as well as industry-superior profitability. Past four quarters, as you mentioned in your opening comments, since October 2024, the strategy of value over volume was clearly, I think, rewarding us in terms of significantly higher EBITDA per ton or margins versus the peers. In this quarter, it is a bit of a dampener. And also, of course, the volumes are also some maybe, if I may say, some loss of market share as well.
Navin, Navin, Navin, Navin, Navin. Slow down. Slow down. Slow down. Hear me out. There were two major changes in our sales strategy in the last one year. One was that we had made our rebate and discount policy so transparent and non-negotiable and non-discretionary that the favored dealers were getting pissed off. So it took them some time for them to realize that this is a non-negotiable policy, and now they have fallen in line. And number two is that in November, we have inducted a new president marketing, and he has shown good results in the last one month, one and a half months. So I expect that things should be better in coming times. Now, of course, I can say anything. I cannot but be bullish on cement. So I will keep on talking bullish sentiment on cement.
But please understand that demand is not in my hand. If demand is there, you will not find us wanting.
Helpful. Helpful. Thank you so much. My second question then was on realizations, as in so I think in Q3, we have sequentially, I think, realization drop is about 4 % odd .
Yeah. All of you are saying this. Unfortunately, I don't have this number. But all of you are saying, so maybe this is correct. Maybe there was a drop in realization or whatever. But you ask me a pointed question, or you keep on coming to Kolkata. Come one day. I give you good tea. You have nice tea. I will give you good lunch also if you want. And we'll discuss this realization.
Right, sir. So then I'll have the discussion over tea. Thank you.
It is better. [Foreign language] we talk more freely and with all the data.
Sure, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Indrajit Agarwal from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Indrajit, sir. He must be having trouble, sir. Yeah. Sorry. Yeah.
Yes, sir. Sorry. I missed one. I just want to clarify one number. Did you say fourth quarter run rate to be similar as December and 9-9.5 million tons volume in fourth quarter?
Yes, I did.
So that would imply more or less flattish YoY number. Is that understanding correct?
Maybe 1%-2% growth. I don't know. I have not done the math.
Sure. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Harsh Mittal from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.
Good evening, Ashok Bhandari. Thank you for your time.
Hi, Mittal. Hi. [Foreign Language]
Sir, just one question. So given that our cash levels as of December ending is INR 6,000 crore, and we are expecting a healthy cash flow in the coming years with a limited CAPEX, so sir, can we expect a material upside in the dividend outlay going ahead?
Let us understand. Material is a relative deflation. So let me assure you that, yes, the dividend payout will be better. It is not my prerogative to say how much better, how much not better. That is up to the wisdom of the board. But I expect the dividend payout for 2026, 2027 sorry, for 2025, 2026 to be better than 2024, 2025. And it is not a differential of INR 5 kind of a thing. We may give you a better one.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Lakshmi Narayanan from Tunga Investments. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you, sir. Sir, some of the return metrics for the company, we see that it's currently trending downward, predominantly because of lower profitability from incremental capacity.
No, no, no. My God. Sorry, sorry, sorry. Please let me correct you. The profitability absolute number has gone down because we had, by choice, taken a value over volume path. Please understand. We have achieved the convergence vis-à-vis, say, UltraTech on per bag prices. So it is not that the capacity utilization is substantially affected by profitability. It was my design of lower volumes to better my prices, which had affected the profitability.
Got it. So my question is slightly different. I mean, I understand your point. Now, our ROCE or ROEs are trending downwards over a period of time. So given this trend, what is the primary metric the company prefers to evaluate its long-term performance?
One second, my dear friend. Let us understand. If I keep on making profit, my capital employed keeps on going up. If the additional profit I am not distributing or I am not utilizing for CAPEX, then it is giving me a 4%-5% treasury return. So if you combine everything, you find that, all right, the ROCE or the ROE is going down. On the other hand, I'm committed to add on capacity to 80 million tons. So what do I do? I have to bear the pain of rather inefficient cash utilization in the form of treasury till I formalize my plan to have major CAPEX. For the first time in my career, I think, I have spoken of a INR 400 crore-INR 500 crore CAPEX visibility in the next financial year. We have never done that.
But then the demand scenario is such that I cannot give you a firm commitment on when my capacities will come up. As soon as the capacities come up, the 4% return cash once cash or the return on cash of 4% will translate into 20%, which will automatically jack up the ROCE and ROE. So you will have to bear with me.
Sure. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, you may press star and one. The next question is from the line of Uttam Srimal from Axis Securities Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah, sir. Good evening, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, my question pertains to Premium Cement. So we have made a very good progress from 15% last year to 22% 10% last year, 22%. So where do we see this number going forward in next year?
Have you read any cement research report which has talked of anything else but Premium Cement? So if everybody is going to make Premium Cement, then where is the premium here?
Yes, sir.
The Premium Cement becomes the normal cement, number one. Number two, the brand belongs to the company. The classification of brand also belongs to the company. There is no standard which defines Premium Cement. So it is your 10 brands. It is your pen, and it is your pencil. Whatever you want to put, you put as a premium brand and sell it because there is no yardstick to define what a Premium Cement is. So please understand, we are at about 21%-22%. We have defined our premium brands, and we are sticking to it. We are not changing the mix of my total cement as per my convenience. At the moment, with the current demand scenario, we are at 21%-22%, and we expect to maintain the same rate for this financial year. Next year, what will happen? Let us see.
Sir, next year, what would be our depreciation cost?
What will be our?
Depreciation.
Depreciation should be about INR 1,600 crore.
INR 1,600?
20%.
Sir, you said INR 1,600?
Yes, I said INR1,600.
Okay, sir. Thanks a lot. That's all from me.
INR 1,600 and INR 1,700, please don't hold me to the number, but it will not be as I had it, I mean.
Okay, sir. That's all from my side. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. A reminder to all participants to press star and one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Rajesh Ravi from HDFC Securities. Please go ahead.
I'd say just a follow-up question. On the realization which you explained that you have bridged the gap with UltraTech, and I believe that is visually in numbers when I compare yours with the like-to-like numbers of UltraTech. In the last one year, while your competitor has shown a INR 50 decline, yours realization has gone up by INR 100. And similarly, is the trend in for the last two years? There is a sharp swing upward on your numbers. However, if I look at the margin front, your margins have been more or less flattish year-on-year, while the competitor has seen a margin upswing both on a year-on-year basis and a two-year basis. So is it like you have maintained your pricing?
Ravi, Ravi, one second. Fixed cost recovery is completely dependent on capacity utilization. Does that help you appreciate?
Yes.
To catch up on the value terms, I had sacrificed volumes. So my fixed cost recovery was less. So my margins dropped. Now, if I play intelligently, my fixed cost recovery will improve, and my margins will also improve.
Right.
This is the first time in the history of this company that I have reported a more or less equal EBITDA per ton net of labor cost expenses vis-à-vis UltraTech. Otherwise, we had always maintained a INR 100-INR 150 delta on the plus side, and I expect to catch that up.
Okay. That's heartening. Sir, just on the adjusted for the labor cost, still your employee cost is higher by INR 20 crore quarter-on-quarter versus INR 250 crore outflow.
My dear friend, what happens if I increase my capacity?
Okay. This is with regard to the new plant ramp-up.
Exactly.
Okay. We should factor in this number as a recurring number and accordingly. Sir, lastly, just on the UAE business, could you make it a practice in the press release only to share the volume metric and the number 10 AD? Would that be more useful for us?
I will certainly give a thought to this. Give me one quarter. Let us see what I can do in next quarter.
Sure, sir.
If I can, I will certainly do that.
Sir, lastly, could you repeat the CAPEX number for full year and next year? What are you targeting?
This year, I'll be doing INR 2,000 crore. I have already completed 1,500. I'll be doing about INR 500 crore in this quarter, means January, March. Next year, I have one second. Next year, I have not firmed up my plan on further cement capacity addition. We have frozen the plan to set about 30 RMC plants. One RMC plant costs roughly INR 5 crore-INR 6 crore. So you take about INR 200 crore for RMC, INR 200 crore for my railway sidings, and INR 50 crore-INR 100 crore here normal routine CAPEX will get that. So I am giving a guidance of next year CAPEX at INR 500 crore.
But I'm putting a caveat that this is only because I have not firmed up my plan of adding up further capacity. If that gets fructified, the number will substantially change. But you will have to wait for that.
So just to confirm, yeah, that's clear, sir. That is clear. And so there are no capacities which will come on stream next financial year, at least because no concrete work is going on as per.
Yes, I don't think we will go beyond 72 million tons, which we will achieve by March 26th.
Okay. Great, sir. That's all from my end. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Navin Sahadeo from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, I'll take the last question, sir. So in the you mentioned that we have narrowed the price gap versus the industry leader from INR 30- INR 15. So what is then the next milestone? Is it coming at par, or is it how should one benchmark it at that point of time onwards and we again start chasing volume?
Navin, Navin, hear me. Hear me. I don't have the capacity or capability or even the enthusiasm of saying, "I will sell at par with UltraTech." If I say that, you will not believe it. But on the other hand, with full confidence, I can say that I'll maintain the delta on a bag per ton basis, vis-à-vis the competition, which I had been doing except in this quarter. I had been doing it for 40 years, that you know.
Of course. Of course.
This quarter, [Foreign language] , we lost out on volumes. It's all right. It was a calculated move.
Fair point, sir. Sir, on the staff cost, I just wanted to know what would be the normalized cost? I mean, this quarter, of course, is where.
You ask this too, Jajoo, yes. I don't know.
Excuse me. [Foreign language] last question to you, sir. Last question. At a broader industry level, do you think non-trade share or non-trade exposure is rising because everybody is chasing those bulk volumes, RMC units? Is that a fair thing to observe, or?
No, no, no. I think you have to as I told you, my dear friend, this quarter becomes very typical. Non-trade is basically large purchases by infrastructure projects. This quarter, the government has to finish the budget allocated in 2025-2026. So this quarter, you may have a trend where non-trade may be more, but I don't think that is a sustainable trend. We will go back to 75-25 kind of a level. We are today at 65-35.
Understood. Very clear, sir. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Actually, listen.
Yeah?
Is your last question finished?
Yeah, yeah. I'm done. There are no more questions.
So, why are you always the last one to shout to me?
Over tea, we'll discuss this.
Thank you. Vinicia, you can go ahead and conclude the call, please.
All right. On behalf of.
Thank you, and bye-bye.
On behalf of ICICI Securities Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line.