Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Q4 and FY 2023 Earnings Conference Call of Suzlon Energy Limited, hosted by Emkay Global Financial Services. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of today's presentation. Should you need assistance during the conference, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. During this call, the company's management may make certain statements which reflect their outlook for the future, or which could be construed as forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are associated with uncertainties and risks, as fully detailed in the company's annual report, which may cause us the actual results to differ.
Hence, these statements must be reviewed in conjunction with the risk that the company faces. Thank you. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Abhineet Anand from Emkay Global Financial Services. Thank you, and over to you.
Thanks, Ryan. Good afternoon, everyone. I'd first like to thank the management for giving us this opportunity to host the call. Today, we have with us the top management of Suzlon Energy Limited, being represented by Mr. J.P. Chalasani, Group CEO, and Mr. Himanshu Mody, Group CFO. I will now hand over to the management. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Abhineet Anand, and good evening to each one of you, and thank you for joining us on our FY quarter four, FY 2023 earnings call. At the beginning, let me apologize to you for any inconvenience in the call, because both me and Himanshu Mody are having sore throat. You might hear some coughing, okay? It's not because there was a hard question, it's because we are not feeling well. I hope, I'm sure you had an opportunity to review our results and investor presentation. We will share with you an overview of the industry, and we will walk you through our quarter four, FY 2023 and full year FY 2023 performance. We will then take your questions.
As all of us know that, with good policy initiatives from the Government of India, as well as few state governments, the wind energy sector has got much-needed impetus, providing momentum for industries to kickstart the journey to net zero. The 2030 GW target of 5 GW of non-fossil fuel-based capacity, which again, substantiated by the recent CEA report of the generation mix for 2030 demand meeting, envisages that 100 GW of wind capacity to be set up. With the current capacity of around 43 GW, we will need wind installations of about roughly 8 GW per annum over the next seven years.
The current recent important announcements of discontinuation of e-reverse bidding and resorting to closed bidding, coupled with the state-specific bidding for all eight states, with the full tariff, I think we feel that would actually make us get back to the pre-FY 2017 level of capacity additions. FY 2024 wind bid plan, 2.5 GW each for SECI, NTPC, NHPC, and SJVN. That is making it to 10 GW. As you're aware, that the first 2.5 GW, the NIT has come out a couple of days back from SECI, which is in line with the not eight states, but it is five states. The same instances that it has come out. The initiatives like ISTS waiver, the extension for COD of projects till June 2025, will again boost the C&I segment, mainly.
Wind repowering potential of 25 GW and the green hydrogen mission targets. The concepts like RPO and RGO obligations will further boost RE sector in a big way. We have also responded to the market requirement of a larger wind turbine through our the S144 3 MW series. Our cumulative orders of 1,542 MW are the highest since 2019. These include the order book as of March 31, 2023, of 652 MW, plus orders secured subsequently of 890 MW. Out of this, what is more gratifying for us to say is that 780 MW is new 3 MW series, which clearly demonstrates the immense trust that our clients have on Suzlon's expertise and product technology. Our priority going forward is to pursue quality orders with a higher value and better margins.
Our focus remains on execution and building our order book. Our OMS business continues to do well. It has over 16 GW of renewable capacity under maintenance globally, out of which close to 14 GW is in India. With a positive sectoral outlook and strong fundamentals, we at Suzlon are now well-equipped to leverage the market opportunity arising from energy transition. I would now like to invite Himanshu Mody to take you through our financial performance.
Thank you, J.P.C., sir. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I will be using slide numbers 18 to 22 of our investor presentation, which has been uploaded on our website as the reference point for my discussion during this discussion. FY 2023 has been a historical year for Suzlon, since the company has seen significant improvement in all key financial parameters. Our balance sheet is stronger as a result of a significant debt reduction post the rights issue. Our fundamentals have strengthened with a consistent focus on our bottom line. We are pleased to report that our consolidated network has turned positive after 10 years. It is at INR 1,099 crores for FY 2023. Net debt has reduced from INR 13,000 crores on 31st March 2020, to INR 1,180 crores as of 31st March 2023.
This is a reduction of more than 90%. Our consolidated FY 2023 PAT, before any exceptional items, has turned positive after a period of six years, and is at INR 167 crore for FY 2023 on a consolidated basis. This is as compared to FY 2022 PAT of negative INR 249 crore last year. With a continuous focus on deleveraging our balance sheet, we have achieved substantial reduction in our net finance costs as well. For FY 2023, our net finance cost stands at INR 401 crore, which was at INR 712 crore for FY 2022, yielding into a reduction of close to INR 311 crore, which is a reduction of 44% in the finance costs.
Hence, there is a marked improvement on all our financial parameters, like net debt to EBITDA, pre-foreign exchange, is at 1.4x for FY 2023, vis-a-vis 7x for FY 2022. Our net interest coverage ratio for FY 2023 is 2.1x versus 0.9x for FY 2022. Inflation for us is under control as an economy, and commodity prices have also stabilized, showing great resilience going forward. With that, I'd like to conclude my presentation, and we can open the floor for any question and answers that the callers may have. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we request you to restrict to two questions per participant. Our first question comes from Mohit Kumar with ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir, and congratulations on a very, very strong order book.
Thank you.
My first question is, sir, how do you see the execution in FY 2024 in megawatt terms? You did mention that it can reach 1.6 GW, I think, which we did in 2017. Is it possible to reach that number in FY 2024 based on the order book, or do you think this number can be achieved in FY 2025? That's the first question, sir.
Obviously, we've given you our order book position as of today. The 50%-60%, I think almost 60% of that is for the current year, and we've booked more orders. As far as whether we will reach 1.6, as an impact, we did 17 MW-18 MW in FY 2017. I think I will only say that instead of taking a guess on me, take a guess on the country, and we will maintain 25%-30% of whatever country adds, our market share will be to that extent. Therefore, I will leave it to you for assuming what number would be ours.
Predicting a market share decline in, say, FY 2023, is it right, sir? To restore the order book.
That's primarily because the 50% of capacity, what more than 50% capacity, what we're supposed to add, was not full scope of EPC with us, where we only supply the turbines and do the commissioning, erection commissioning, and the rest of the BOP is with the clients. There are turbines supplied even in quarter two. A significant amount of it has not got commissioned by March 31st. We have a limited control over that. If we had that, obviously our market share would have been much higher.
Understood, sir. My second question is, what are the challenges required to get back to this high level of activity in terms of capital expenditure and working capital funding?
From a working capital perspective, you know, we have made a good start in securing working capital facilities for some of the orders that is currently available with us. Of course, this will keep getting built up to match with the delivery schedules of the orders. We don't see any significant challenges on being able to have the working capital ramp up done in time to be able to deliver on those orders.
Capital expenditure you need to do, sir?
Capital expenditure, we would not need to do certainly for FY 2024, other than the normal maintenance CapEx that we do, which is close to about INR 100 crores. You know, for FY 2025, we may need to start placing certain advances and orders in FY 2024. That may be a delta of another INR 100- INR 250 crores over and above our maintenance CapEx that we may need to do to augment certain capacities for FY 2025.
Yeah, that's mainly for our three megawatt platform augmentation.
Understood, sir. Thank you, and all the best, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Gautam C. Jain with GCJ Financial Advisors. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon, sir.
Afternoon.
Yeah, congratulations for very good set of numbers. My first question pertains to your turbine, you know, segment. You are still not making money, if I look at your EBIT. Can you guide us when we are we will be able to make money in this wind turbine business?
Hi, Gautam, on the EBIT, you may be right, but, at the EBITDA level, for FY 2023 in the WTG business, we've reported a INR 96 crores of EBITDA, for the full year. Of course,
Mm-hmm.
At the EBITDA level, because depreciation of close to INR 250 crores, which gets reduced between the EBITDA and EBIT, still continues to be negative.
Okay.
On the EBITDA level, also for the WTG business, despite the lower volumes in FY 2023 as compared to FY 2022, we've been able to deliver a healthy EBITDA margin.
Okay, what maximum margin we can achieve in this business, in terms of EBIT margin?
Well, EBIT margin, again, I won't comment on. I will stick to my answer on EBITDA margins.
Okay.
EBITDA margins in this business certainly can go up to, single high digits in percentage terms.
Okay. Around 8%-9%, right?
Single high digits, yes, I would say.
Yeah, 8%-9% category.
Okay. The second question pertains to your, you know, execution capability. You have written in the presentation that you have capacity to, I think, execute more than 2,000 MW, right?
Yeah, that's what we established earlier, in FY 2017, if you remember.
Okay. You also said that 8 GW-10 GW, you know, the orders need to be placed by different companies in wind energy, wind power energy. How much we expect to get from that, you know, orders in next three years or four years? Can you guide us on that?
It's like as we said, that our aim is always to be a number one and number two in the country in terms of market share. More important than that is that we will be + 25%, let's say around 30%, is the market share what we will gain it. This is 10 GW, you can't really take the 10 GW bidding, because they will get bid at different times, and the CODs will come in different years. The year of bidding is not indication of when the actual COD would happen.
Okay, we'll try to maintain 30% market share.
Yeah.
Okay, my last question is, we will have a good amount of cash generation in 2024 as well. Can the further reduction in net debt be seen in 2024?
Certainly there will be reduction in the net debt in 2024. It may not be at the same pace as what the company has seen in the last few years.
Mm-hmm.
I think through whatever the, you know, cash flow generation as per the amortization schedule of our loan, yes, we will continue to see the debt reduction.
Okay. Any guidance on your AMC business or growth in the future? That's also, stagnant for last six, seven years.
Excuse me?
OEMs. Okay, OEMs is, there are two ways of business grows. One is the turbine business, what we do. Obviously, as our the turbine sales keep increasing year to year, to that extent, the growth would happen. Obviously, you know that, as a country itself, there's a subdued numbers in the last five years. Post FY 2017, if you see last four years, five years-
Mm-hmm.
As a country, we did anywhere between 1,800 MW minimum level to maximum 2,200 MW.
Mm-hmm.
Okay? It's not just us, as a country, we've not been growing, whatever the reason.
Mm-hmm. Correct.
Whatever has been our share, that growth has been there. Therefore, it is not something different from the sector. We've been growing as per the sector. In future, as we keep growing, that will grow, and then obviously we would also look at growing by the multi-brand the turbines.
Okay, great. Great. Thank you so much. I'll come back in the queue.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Ganguly with Nine Rivers Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. I had two questions. One, regarding, you know, you all recently won a 300 MW supply order with Torrent. Would it be fair to assume that it is a multi-year contract? If that is the case, then how do you all manage the raw material volatility risk associated with such projects?
For Vivek, shall I? Yes, it's, some of the basic things is, we're hedged in the contract, as, the commodity pricing, whether it's steel and maybe the foreign exchange. First, that is one way of hedging in the contract as a possible. Second way is that we do have a long-term relationship with our suppliers, therefore, we give them an upfront, the indication of what we want, and we lock in the prices in the name. These are the two ways we try to see that we don't go beyond our estimates.
As my second question is regarding the performance of the Chinese companies in the domestic market. You know, Goldwind is a very large company. I don't know whether they are in India, but Envision apparently is. How are they performing, and are there any regulatory, you know, steps being taken by the government, or are they free to, you know, operate in the industry? If you can shed some light on that would be very helpful.
Obviously, we are hands-on with our own effort, so therefore, I don't want to get into whether they have a regulatory hurdle. The only thing I want to say is that if the market is going to be what we're anticipating, okay, like, 10 MW bidding for every year and things like that, there is a pie for everyone. I don't think that's an issue. Whether they will have a hurdles or not, I don't think it's right for us to comment upon.
Great. What is their market share right now?
Their market share?
In the domestic, in the Indian, scenario.
It's not right for me to comment about others' market shares. We can talk about our market share.
Okay, thank you. That's all from me.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rohit Bharwani, an investor. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for giving me the opportunity. I had a couple of questions. My first question is: How much are the carried forward losses at consolidated level? Related to it, what is the expected tax rate for FY 2024?
For FY 2024, you know, I can confirm that at the consolidated level, there will be no tax outgo, because we would be utilizing our carry forward losses. The total carry forward losses, you know, on the balance sheet as of today, is close to about a little less than INR 2,000 crores.
Okay. Okay, sir. My next question is, realization has gone up if we see on quarter-on-quarter basis. In wind turbine business, it is around INR 6.10 crore per MW. Can we expect this to continue in this financial year?
I think, the margins that we've been able to report in H2 of FY 2023, we should be able to maintain, those margins, going forward for this financial year.
If we look at Q3, the per MW realization was INR 5.65, and in this quarter it has come around INR 6.10. You are saying we will maintain the margins of H2, which will be around INR 5.8- INR 6 MW. Is it right?
At the contribution level, we should be able to maintain our margins at mid-teens, you know, as we go along. You know, I don't want to comment on specific crores, but mid-teens is what we would be able to do.
Okay, sir. Okay, that's it from my side. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Himaanshu Kansal with Vijit Global Securities Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Congratulations for the good set of numbers. I just wanted to understand that, as far as the offshore installations are concerned, you can correct me if I am wrong, it is the bigger turbines that are needed, and they are feasible, so it's like 15 MW kind of turbines. I just wanted to understand that government has also started pushing for the offshore in the recent few months. How ready we are for taking on the offshore projects?
Very nicely. We would we are aware of that, and we are aware of the program and the offshore turbines requirement is coming in India, and we're getting prepared to be ready by the time the demand is there in India. We would be ready.
Uh, just-
Matching the demand schedule.
Okay. Okay, thank you. Just one more question. In terms of reduction in the interest cost, if, you can just give us some idea as to how much more interest cost can go down this year?
You know, this year, of course, difficult for me to give you a number, but as I said earlier, compared between FY 2022 to FY 2023, the interest cost reduction is about 44%. It certainly won't be to that extent, because, you know, there may be working capital facilities, which is by way of non-fund based limits, which we will be ramping up for execution of these orders. While our term loan from, you know, gross debt of INR 1,900 crores will keep reducing based on the cash flows, but at the same time, our LC and bank guarantee commissions that we need to incur for working capital will also be comprising a part of the interest cost.
Yes, while there may be a reduction on the INR 401 crores, but certainly not as high reduction as we've seen in the last few years.
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ishan Bhargava with Emkay Global Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. You mentioned that there are no current challenges on the working capital. We're just checking on another aspect. Last quarter, you mentioned that we were in advanced discussions with four to five institutions for working capital. How have those discussions progressed? Could you give a flavor of that?
Without giving names of specific institutions, I can confirm to you that as we speak, today, we are sitting on close to INR 1,000 crores of sanctioned working capital limits available with the company.
From those institutions?
From those institutions, yeah. We are, of course, constantly in discussions with the same institutions to ramp up the working capital or the project-specific funding to deliver on those orders. Certainly it's a marked improvement over the last quarter, and we see this continuing from quarter to quarter.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ritesh Poladia, with Girik Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. Just to continue on the previous question on working capital. Sir, yesterday there is an announcement of enabling resolution for working capital conversion into equity. When you have a not significant challenges, then why to pass such a resolution, and what's the quantum of this, if you can share?
This was a CP of one of the working capital lenders, without taking the name. That in case that there is a default on the working capital facilities that have been sanctioned by them, and as and when we draw down those working capital, in case there is a default, then the lender has a right to convert the outstanding loan into equity shares of the company. This is a fairly standard enabling resolutions for most kind of indebtedness that companies take. Even when we refinanced our facilities last year, a similar enabling resolution under what's called Section 62(3) of the Companies Act was obtained. It is in line with that.
It is, you know, while of course, the resolution has been passed by the board, and it will be tabled before the shareholders, but it is more a CP compliance than in actual. The chances of it being implemented in actuality, given our current financial status, is very remote.
This enabling resolution come into effect only in the case of default and not otherwise. Is that understanding, sorry?
That's right. The lender needs the comfort that in case of a default, the shareholders have approved a resolution, so that there is no hurdles for them to convert the outstanding loan into equity shares should the situation arise.
Sir, what is the interest rate currently going on for the working capital for you there?
Working capital, you know, in our case, it's all non-fund based facilities. We typically pay a LC or a bank guarantee commission or a letter of comfort commission, which we take from NBFCs. That ranges anywhere between 2%-3% of the LC or BG commission that we get issued from them. It's not a term loan facility, you know, where we pay sort of close to 10% on our existing borrowing. It's a little different construct.
Sure. Any advance available for from this PSU or the government companies, and is there an interest component to it?
We don't get advances. Of course, when we issue bank guarantees, to our customers who we've taken orders from, what we give is an advance bank guarantee, and against the advance bank guarantees, when, you know, our customers release the advance to us, against the orders. To that extent, it is cash neutral, and which is why all our working capital is non-fund based and not fund based.
Yeah, that's it from my side. Thank you very much, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from CA Arun Maroti with Subh Labh Research. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Am I audible?
Yeah, yeah. Go ahead.
Yeah, yeah, thanks for the opportunity, sir. Congratulations for the good results for this time. My question is, with regard to the facilities of other, some inactive players, whose O&M activity is not being done by them. Are we, in this sense, any opportunity in that particular activity?
As I said some time back, on the subject business, we're looking?
Yes, yes.
From our turbines, we are also looking at the growth in terms of multi-brand turbine. That means which are not our turbines. Therefore, we would keep exploring the opportunities first, and then after them, we need to be sure that we will be able to deliver the same level of service what we provide for our turbines, because we have a set standard with our clients. There's a set of expectations when this will not work. The moment we are confident we can provide that service and making the reasonable margins, we will acquire. We are in the market. We keep doing it. Already we have done some turbines, and we continue to keep doing this.
Okay, sir. On the casting and forging activities, would you like to share something on that? That will be helpful.
I think the way the demand for wind turbines is increasing, obviously the demand for the components is increasing. Therefore, Our Monty division is seeing a significant, the order inputs, and they are also working towards the improvement in productivity by doing some deep bottlenecks, so that we can increase our capacity for this year and next year and subsequent years. Even in forging units, we are finding the stronger intake this year. We are seeing a growth there, along with the pairing company. Also there, they just don't do wind Suzlon, they do non-Suzlon as well. In fact, the non-Suzlon customers, who are all our competitors, okay? Like every single competitor of ours in the wind sector, are the customers or the clients for as we forge. Everybody goes to them.
Therefore, in fact, their non-Suzlon business is, let's say, the Suzlon business is 30%-40%, non-Suzlon business is 16%, 17%. Also, they have an export business, and we see a good growth potential there.
Can you share some any ballpark number for the guidance that will be helpful, sir. What kind of growth we are looking in that particular business?
It's like a growth what happened in the wind sector is what you can expect the growth there.
Can we move on to question two?
Our next question comes from the line of Faisal Hawa with H.G. Hawa. Please go ahead.
Sir, with the massive, you know, shift to renewable energies in the future, would it be, like, too optimistic to believe that, you know, we could have like a, more like a 1 lakh crore order book, you know, with something very similar to what happened to us in the, you know, early 2000s, where we were like, you know, continuously overbooked with orders, you know? Do you see that kind of a situation coming back anytime soon, as most of the players, you know, who are really, you know, very much adept at, you know, recognizing this oncoming flow of orders are not, you know, as well prepared as they used to be?
Obviously, I don't want to put a number to it, but I can say that, yes, the as the policy is talking about. See, there are two growths that are happening now in the wind sector. Earlier, we used to mainly depend upon the utility sector, where, you know, backed up with the PPA, used to be significant and the retail segment used to be small. Now with the C&I segment growing significantly, there is order book coming from there as well, which we don't need to depend just upon the grid.
I can only say is that we will be, pick and choose now on the orders of which would give us, one is good margins, and the second thing is easy to execute, and the third is, who is the client, so that we can have a long-term relationship in terms of O&M. I don't, in my opinion, the order, at least for the next few quarters, orders would not be a constraint. It's a question of, you know, how much can we pick up in terms of our ability to execute, and also the good quality order as well as quality clients. That's what I would put it as. Directionally, yes, you are right, there will be more orders in the sector.
Sir, can you just tell us of two or three, you know, shop floor improvements that we have made to really, you know, cut down on the, you know, order execution time and to really, you know, increase margins for our company?
Earlier, what used to happen, as I said sometime back, if you look at, even let's say the highest we did, in FY 2017, the entire 1,800 MW was done by us, EPC basis, mostly completed on a turnkey basis, end-to-end by us. Okay? That stretches us in terms of, you know, acquisition of land and, you know, number of cranes and our people ability and project management. Now what is happening is that because we're having a mix of orders, where some part of it is EPC, some part of it we call it as SIC, which is Supply, Installation and Commissioning, where the clients are doing, and some people, in fact, just taking it upright. They are doing erection under our supervision.
With that, our capability to execute more orders, in terms of execution part of it, is increasing because there's supplementary efforts from the clients as well, compared to what we did in FY 2017. Actually speaking, our ability to execute projects today on the capacity wise is much higher than FY17 because we are supplemented with clients as well.
Sir, how are we viewing the whole offshore wind power? Will it finally come into any kind of a majority or it's still time to go?
It's a, I'm sure that you know more than me, because you people keep tracking the sector much more than me. The offshore is our aspiration, the country. Obviously, that, so, you know, we need to build the ability. There is an aspiration there at the level. We need to build that ability and how long it takes for that ability to be built, and when the first project comes, it's anybody's guesswork. What we are doing internally is that we don't miss the bus. We are preparing ourselves as and when that opportunity arises, that we will be there in the market.
Any orders coming from overseas to us, or are we not even looking at that?
Right now, no. There is enough in India for us. We don't want to take our eye out of India.
Okay. Thanks a lot, sir.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Himaanshu Kansal, with Vijit Global Securities Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah, just wanted to understand, how much can we expect from the sale of the non-core assets this year?
Again, Himaanshu, don't want to quantify a number here, but, you know, certainly, this financial year, as in FY 2024, we would see sale of one of our substantial non-core assets, but difficult for me to put, give you a number or an indication on the same.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Uttam Kumar Srimal with Axis Securities Limited. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir, thanks for the opportunity. Sir, what would be our revenue guidance and EBITDA margin guidance for FY 2024?
As I said, EBITDA margin guidance, you know, remains the same that we saw in the H2 of FY 2023, you know, which would be similar for the group. Revenue guidance would let you draw your own conclusion. You know, we've said that, you know, we have close to INR 1,500 crore MW of confirmed order book, of which close to more than 50%, about 55% of that is for FY 2024. You know, in FY 2023, we did 664 MW. You know, the revenue was close to INR 6,000 crore for the same.
If we draw even a 60% of 1,500 MW in order book, that's close to about 850 MW-900 MW in orders for FY 2024. You know.
On hand.
On hand, which is close to a 30%, plus increase in order book. You know, you can extrapolate the revenue increase from that.
Okay. Okay, that's all from my end. Okay.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one. Our next question comes from the line of Rohit Bharwani, an investor. Please go ahead.
Yeah, just one final question. As per my understanding, 3 MW series have higher margins as compared to traditional wind projects. Can you provide some sense as to how much variation is there between the two?
It's not really the higher margins for the turbine, but basically when you go to a higher capacity of the turbines, the BOP cost comes down, balance of plant cost. Okay. Overall margins for the clients would increase at the project level. The margins at the turbine level would more or less remain the same. Second thing is, the margins also will keep improving as we keep supplying more and more. There's a cost out, and you established your product cycle and things like that. Fundamentally, when you increase the size of the turbine, it's the project level cost comes down. I hope I clarified your point.
Okay. Okay, sir. Thank you so much. All the very best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ritesh Poladia with Girik Capital. Please go ahead. Ritesh, your line is unmuted. You could please ask your question.
Yeah, can you hear me?
Yeah.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. On 3 MW series, how economics is different from this 2 MW, if you can give us some idea? Because I believe definitely your efficiency is much higher, but so is the cost. What's the net gain or is it the economics are same?
No, as I think the previous question I answered with respect to the turbine, you know, when you keep increasing the size, so it's not necessarily the cost per MW of the turbine comes down, but cost per MW of the project comes down. Because if you say that you are doing 300 MW project, if you're putting, 2 MW turbine, you need 150 footprints, which are spread much over the area. One is land cost increases, second thing is your entire BOP cost, your evacuation cost, everything goes up. At the moment, you make that a 3 MW, only 100 footprints, so your BOP cost comes down. The cost of the project comes down, but not the cost of the turbine.
The economics, like, the IRR for the developer, goes up?
Yes. More than that is the. I think, I look at a higher capacity, even the turnover is done, because you keep getting as you keep increasing the capacity, the way we want to go from 40 GW to 100 GW, your availability of the land keeps coming down, okay? Therefore, the two things would happen with this, the requirement of the land comes down significantly. The second issue is that in wind projects, major issue is that keep getting issue of pathways, okay? You are out of use, not just during the period of execution, even during the period of operations, because they are in the open area. Those troubles keep coming down, in addition to the project level cost coming down.
Significant thing is the main reason for the turbines side of going up is that the land area required and the constraints in terms of operating comes down, in addition to some extent, the BOP cost comes down.
Sure, sir, that explains. Sir, what's the replacement demand scenario looks like for next two years?
It's like in repowering?
Yeah, because those which are like 20-25 years old, needs replacement. What's the scenario look like in next two to three years? What kind of additional demand one can predict?
Wherever, so we are reaching to that stage, the because the turbines quality appears to be still good, so most of our clients, these are mainly the retail clients at that point of time. You know, we're talking about 20- 25 years, but we didn't have a big IPPs or the utility customers were not there at that point of time. What they're saying is that, okay, fine, we want you to do a life extension of this turbine. They offer us a one-time price for refurbishing the turbine and then keep running it. The revenue for both, so they continue to get the revenue from that turbine, and for us, it's good that our O&M revenue will continue. That's what is happening in most of the cases where, you know, the turbines reach the age.
Repowering or replacing is not picked up at, t hat's an area which we all have been talking for, I think, five, seven years, but it's still to pick up. It might pick up in future. Right now, most of the contracts for us are happening that way.
Also, could you give-
Based on the O&M business, we did about INR 1,900 crore.
It's almost like flat for the year. What kind of growth one can expect from that?
See, as I said, Sandeep, the growth would also depend upon the amount of turbines we keep adding each year. Okay. especially the, you say it's flat because of the, though we added last year and this year, the significant amount of turbines compared to what we think. Because in FY 2020 and FY 2021, our capacity addition was low. Those things have come now into commercial operation. As you know, two years or three years, we offer a free O&M period along the turbine contract. They come into commercial O&Ms after two years. What you're seeing right now is that what has been commissioned in FY 2020 and FY 2021. Those are very small numbers, which are capacity. You're not seeing the growth.
The last year and this year, turbines what we added, obviously we'll come into commercial operations gradually next year and the following year. There's always a lag of two years or three years, mostly two years. Most of our contracts are two years. The from turbine addition to the commercial operation. That's why you're seeing a bit of a low growth. Second point is, as it is, as a sector, as a whole, the turbine addition has not happened much. Mainly for us is that those two years dip.
That's all for that. Thank you very much, sir.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Nikhil Abhyankar, with ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, I just want you to brief us on how are the current policy measures that are announced different from the earlier ones? How tangible are the policy measure? How tangible are the results? Are you already seeing any shift in the government's tendering activities?
I think the significant change, let's understand, make it into two parts of it. One is pre FY 2017, and the second is post FY 2017, after the competitive bidding has come in. Pre FY 2017, in fact, in FY 2017, as a country, we added 5.3 GW, and thereafter we have not even touched 2.5 GW, forget about 5.5 GW. We not even reached 50% of it. The reason for before FY 2017 was that, you know, every state was doing a capacity addition, and there were feeding tariffs. This also had GPA and everything. Once the competitive bidding came in, so because the tariff was the main criteria, everybody went to the states where. It was not state specific. Everybody went to the states where there is an high wind.
Therefore, you went to just Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, initially, all the bids. Once you get considered in that area, so then your capacity addition comes down because land issues, your evacuation issues and various issues. Plus, the experience of reverse auction, we all see that the tariffs have significantly fallen below the actual level, what it should be, cost effective tariffs were not there. That's the reason some of the projects, in fact, if you compare the bid megawatts versus the actual MW, is there's a huge difference. These are the two reasons why fundamentally things were not moving. Those two have been corrected now. Because one is that they changed from e-reverse auction to closed bidding.
Therefore, this, the criteria of, you know, gambling and getting into a lower tariffs in the competition, because you're seeing that if you reduce by 5 paisa, you will get it, 2 paisa, you get it. You know, you get into that mood, would go away. It's a one-time closed bid. Therefore, we will see that we expect that there'll be stability of the tariffs. Second most important factor is that they said that they will do the bidding of all eight windy states. It will be state-specific bidding. Even if they're doing 2.5 GW one bid, or the 10 GW in a year, it will be state-specific, and they said the maximum in a state would be 2 GW.
Mm-hmm.
When they go for the state specific, because some states, because of the wind profile being low, the tariffs will be higher, and there could be a potentially a problem of PPs not getting signed for that. So they came up with a solution that, you know, we will do a simultaneous state specific bidding, and we'll pool all that power and then sell at a pool tariff.
Right.
Therefore, that's the second aspect. One is your bidding, and the second aspect of it is your multi-stage, so would increase the volume. Because these were two of the main hurdles in the last five years we were getting, from the utility point of view. Simultaneously, what has happened is that the C&I segment, which was hardly there, is now significantly picked up, because when you look at the metal industry or the cement or the refineries, everybody, if you need to do an export or you want to get a net zero, because your exports are getting impacted with respect to your green steel or not, and everybody is converting now into a renewable power as a captivity. Significant uptick has happened in the C&I.
At that, in fact, the, if you look at our order book, almost close to 50%, we're getting from that segment, C&I segment. These are the two reasons I think. One is changing the bidding terms. Second is because you got into a different area called C&I segment. We see a great amount of potential, despite the fact that last five years we didn't do it.
Understood, sir, thanks for the elaborate answer. Of the current order book, how much of it is EPC and how much of it is only supply?
I think, the roughly about 50/50 would be that. 50% would be. In EPC, again, we have two parts of it. One is we do along with power evacuation, some we do without power evacuation. They do the power evacuation. The 50% is both. The balance 50% would be, you know, like, pure turbine supply, turbine supply come erection, come commissioning, but BOP won't be there.
Understood. Whatever we commission after one to two years will be added into our O&M portfolio, right?
Minimum two years.
Minimum two years, okay. Sir, any plans on monetizing O&M business?
Not yet, of course, we'll keep looking at optimizing our capital structure from time to time. You know, there is nothing concrete to report. You know, as and when the situation develops or anything develops, we will of course, under the SEBI listing norms, whatever is required public disclosure, we shall make them.
Okay, sir. Thank you, and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Vikas Mukundan, with Freelance Consultant. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, good evening, everyone. I joined the call a little late. My question is regarding this ISTS waiver till June 2025, commissioning of all projects by June 2025. Is that going to spur captive projects in a big way? Since you have a land bank in major wind sites, would that help in getting more orders in, on that segment?
Okay. The ISTS waiver is obviously, you know, it's for the projects which are connected on the power grid network, okay? Not on the state network. Therefore, wherever we have a land bank, if they are actually the evacuation is on the STU network, then it this doesn't cover purpose. However, having said that, ISTS waiver would actually, because it's only there up to March 25, you will see that rush of people trying to complete the projects before March 25. That's also one reason why you will see that, you know, more and more orders coming in. Everybody wants to complete the March 25 pressure of that.
Especially for the C&I segment, because at least for the bid segment, if the substation is delayed, not for the reason, but, could not be commissioned, the substation is delayed, so they would get an extension for the ISTS. That facility is not there for the C&I segment. There's a big rush of C&I segment to complete the projects before. Of course, wherever we have the land bank, there obviously is an advantage to us, whether ISTS is there or ISTS is not there. Either way, the advantage is always there, because land is precious for doing wind projects.
Right. Thank you so much. One follow-up question to this itself is, how much since you said there's a rush for such projects to be commissioned by March 25, how much of such projects could Suzlon be getting?
No, we won't get under the pressures of March 25. We have our manufacturing plan, we have our ability of which quarter, how much we'll produce, what we can supply. Our schedules, when we give it in the contract, is that it will be according to that. Therefore, obviously, there will be pressure for more people asking us to take orders for that period, but if it is beyond our manufacturing capacity and supply capacity, we don't take that.
Okay. Thank you so much, sir. I'll leave it at that.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Nataraj Shankar, an investor. Please go ahead.
I have two questions. One is, you mentioned about the working capital of about INR 1,000 crores, and if I understand earlier, you had about INR 500 crores of working capital. Let's assume that INR 1,500 crores is the working capital limit. What is the order book that you can actually take? That's one. Secondly, what is the initial feedback that you're getting from the state electricity boards for wind power, which is going to be slightly more expensive than solar, otherwise? Is there any initial feedback from them in terms of their perspective on whether it is sustainable?
Let me take the second question first. Okay. The expensive, inexpensive is a wrong term to use by just looking at the absolute tariff number, okay. The expensive, inexpensive depends upon when are you generating with respect to the demand, okay. Unfortunately, because we don't have the time of the day today, so we talk about, you know, somebody's giving it 260, and somebody is giving it 290 and six months. Therefore, it's not. Today's current requirement, if you're seeing, the most important thing is that the for 2030, there's a detailed access done by CEA. In fact, they split into five different nodes, as we know that, you know, east, west, south, the north and the northeast. Node-wise, they've done the analysis, and they've identified what is the demand in 2030, eight, seven, six hours.
They also identified what would be the least cost option to meet that demand. In that least cost option, it comes as that the, that point of time there'll be 100 GW, it's 99,815 or something, don't quote me, but 100 GW of wind and the 300 GW, I think, yeah, if I remember right, 400 GW of solar, is what they're talking about is the requirement of this. Therefore, even from the least cost option, you need both. It can't be wind, it can't be solar. Okay? Sorry, 300 MW of 300 GW of solar and 100 GW of wind is what they're saying is the requirement. Pure wind, pure solar is not going to solve the purpose of meeting the demand.
Therefore, this concept of, which is cheaper, is not going to work because you are seeing clearly, you are seeing standalone wind bids at the, at the, at the central level, federal level, but you're not seeing a standalone solar bid in the last few months, and you will not see also at that level. They're only talking about hybrid RTC as a peak power or the pure wind power.
Understood. Okay.
To answer your first-
One more question.
To answer your first question, you know, assuming we have INR 1,500 crores of working capital, which is fully fungible between NCs and bank guarantees, I mean, that would be more than adequate for us to be able to service our FY 2024 orders.
Okay. That's about, let's say, 700 MW, approximately, give or take?
I don't want.
No.
No.
Such a good try.
Yeah.
He's not going to answer that.
Yeah. As I said, it will be more than adequate to service our FY 2024 orders.
Understood. Thank you very much. Appreciate the time.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Riken Ramesh Gopani with Capri Global. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for taking my question. Firstly, just to follow up to the previous point that you mentioned about the RTC bids that are coming through over the last few months. You know, across these RTC projects, what is there any, you know, difference in terms of the IRR that somebody makes on a standalone wind projects versus an RTC hybrid project?
No, the IRR depends upon what is the tariff. It doesn't depend upon what project you're doing it. Like, if I want X% return from a project, I will bid my tariff accordingly. Okay? The tariff determines your return, but if you want to compromise on your return and go to lower tariff is a different issue. Otherwise, I'm sure that every investor or every IPP would have their own hurdle rate of return, and they will bid at that. According to the tariff comes out, whether it's RTC or pure wind or the pure solar. That's the reason you will see that in case of RTC, the because its cost is higher, so you'll find tariff also going up. That means obviously everybody's keeping the return same, but the cost being higher tariffs are coming.
Right. In your interaction with your clients, do you understand that compared to a standalone wind project, you know, this is slightly better IRRs, or it actually is indifferent between a standalone? Also just in correlation, is, in a standalone wind project today, what IRR in your assessment, based on the current tariffs, at which projects are going?
See, the IRR depends on a number of factors. It's not just the tariff alone, who am I? What is going to be my cost of funding? Okay. Many people do a different costing and then subsequently do refinancing. There are a number of factors which decide your IRR. One is usually your hurdle rate, what you put in. It's impossible to say that, you know, what would be an IRR for a particular given tariff, because there are a number of other variables which will decide your the returns. I'm assuming that the current tariffs, which are, you know, anywhere between INR 2.90 to INR 3.05, INR 3.05, INR 3.10, is what the wind is settling down. I'm assuming that's the tariff range where people are comfortable with the hurdle rates, what they're expecting.
Understood. Understood.
Obviously, if they are, whatever they put it, they're finding pressure on their returns at that tariff level.
Mm-hmm.
That's the reason I said sometime back, some of the projects are not moving forward.
Understood, sir. That is clear. Sir, just, last question from my side is about the inflow that you expect. In this year, I mean, what is the kind of, you know, in terms of gigawatts, or megawatts, what kind of order inflow do you expect, at your company?
See, we are giving you as on today, remember.
In my presentation, there is an order book of,
15 point. Exactly what we expect.
Again, difficult for us to, you know, provide you a number, but as we've been saying, there is very active negotiations going on for a large order book size. We don't want to obviously put a number to that, but currently, given the traction in the market, both on the IPP and the C&I segment, the new order book as we secure, once we deliver on the existing one, the new order book that we secure could be quite significant.
The only point I want to make is that the order book is not an issue anymore.
Yeah.
We have plenty of the opportunities available there. It's question of two things would decide. One is that how much can we actually deliver the turbines in the next year? We will take order only to that. The second is that, you know, we will cherry-pick in terms of, e arlier, we were, you know, obviously, we had to concerned with respect to working capital and things like that. We were picking up every project which came across. We will be cherry-picking projects which would give us better margins. I, as I see, I'm not saying, looking at the market, it's not just here, everywhere it's happening. You know, globally, there are orders are flowing. Order, I don't think is an issue. Question of our industry.
You do not anticipate, and while you've not given a guidance on your order inflow, but in terms of market share, you see yourself, you know, either strengthening or having steady-state market share in terms of new order in the country, right?
Market share, see, these two are two different things. Order intake is different, market share in terms of COD is different.
Yes.
There's always a time gap between order intake versus COD. What we will be doing COD today is, orders we receive in a year. What we will receive this year will be for the next year, the following year. Therefore, market share, when I talked about, is that amount of commissioning we will do in a year, because generally everybody counts that, the commissioning capacity. Our guidance, whatever we gave it, we will continue to be 25%-30% of the total capacity is in terms of the commissioned capacity.
Okay, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you. We take our next question from the line of Abhineet Anand with Emkay Global Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Majority of the questions have been answered. Just two questions. One on the competition, if you can throw some light, who are the active players? We do read some on obviously newspaper, but if you can just highlight top three, four players. Second, when you had indicated, you know, the government and the state pipelines of 8 GW-10 GW, this exclude the C&I segment, right? What type of market is there for the C&I segment? If you can highlight that as well. Thank you.
No, as I said, I'm sorry. As I said, in the current order book, what we got is almost like 50% is what, you know, the C&I segment. We expect moving ahead, we will continue to have similar one. The C&I will further increase, let's say, in the coming years, when you get into a green hydrogen and ammonia, which is in the beginning stages today. Okay? Right now, what is happening on the C&I segment is mainly the people, current players who want to convert or add renewable energy capacity in terms of their production to become green production, whether it's the steel, cement, refining, these people. The demand, in terms of C&I for the green hydrogen would significantly come up in the next couple of years. There will be a constant flow of it.
In my opinion, frankly speaking, that, you know, if you have 100, let's say, MW of a bit, at least 40, 50 MW, if not more, would be from C&I in that ratio.
On the competition side, sir?
Competition is everyone is aware. I think the, whether you call for competition or talk about players in the sector. You have, Envision, you have, Siemens Gamesa, you have GE, the main players, and, us and us. These are the main players.
Okay, just one last one, sir. This O&M services, any large, you know, capacity that is existing our PPA structure in the next 2 years?
Come again?
See, we would be doing around 13 GW of O&M right now, right? In our kitty, as I understand.
About 14 GW.
About 14 GW. Some of those we would have got in earlier years, maybe a decade back as well, right? I'm just trying to understand any large capacities in the next two, three years that are exiting, going to exit our, the O&M services?
No, this is what I answered. It's not that, 10 years old will not. The question is that, you know, if something is cost 20-25 years-
Yeah.
Is what it can. That's where the previous question I answered is that till now, right now, whatever is that is happening, it's mostly happening in the retail sector, because that point of time, only the retail sector was there. They are actually, most of them, not, if not all, most of them, are what they're trying to do is that they refurbish the turbine. It's like whatever little bit you need to, refurbishing and then operate that the same, even if they don't have a PPA, because they think that they can sell in the market. Today, that opportunity is available. As for us, it's good that we get one-time fee of refurbishment, and we get extension of our O&M services. It's a win-win for both.
Even if the PPA is not there, these are people are saying, I will still do it because its cost of generation is very low. It's a old turbine, depreciated plant, and I can sell in the exchange, and I'll get money.
Okay, okay. That was helpful. Thanks a lot. Those were my questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. On behalf of Emkay Global Financial Services, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.