Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the UltraTech Cement Limited Q4 FY 2024 earnings conference call. We must remind you that the discussion on today's call may include certain forward-looking statements and must be therefore viewed in conjunction with the risk that the company faces. The company assumes no responsibility to publicly amend, modify, or revise any forward-looking statements on the basis of any subsequent development, information, or events or otherwise. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need any assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Atul Daga, Chief Financial Officer of the company.
Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Daga.
Thank you. Good evening, everybody. One more quarter and one more year has gone by, and UltraTech. And at UltraTech, we have not got tired of growing. We have not yet exhausted all our resources to keep doing better. This year again, we have achieved a double-digit volume growth, and how? There's an increase in our base capacity. On a full year basis, we have achieved a 13% growth, and this is the third straight year of a double-digit growth. In the fiscal year 2022, we grew 9%, 14% in 2023, and again, 13% in the current fiscal year, the fiscal year under reporting. And we are confident to deliver good performance year after year. In absolute terms, we sold about 94 million tons of cement in FY 2022, which has crossed to almost 190 million tons in FY 2024.
This, I believe, is the power of UltraTech. For January, March 2024, we grew 30% over the last quarter and 11% YOY in volume terms. We've delivered this performance obviously with the rapid growth in the Indian economy. The Indian economy is thriving and is expected to grow anywhere between 6.5%-6.8% this current year, and cement and industrial products definitely grow at a pace higher than GDP. To give you a glimpse, a very brief perspective, NHAI spent a record INR 207,000 crore in construction of highways in FY 2024, the highest ever capital expenditure so far, a jump of 20% over last year. Construction of highways has touched a record 12,300 kilometers in 2024, almost 34 or 35 kilometers per day.
This is the second highest rate at which the construction of highways is being seen in the country. Our growth has been possible only with the support of our 23,000+ employees, our 130,000+ channel partners, business associates, bankers, and all other agencies involved. As we grow, we have also increased our pace of growth in the RMC business. We ended this year with 307 RMC plants, serving our customers all over the country. RMC consumes almost 2.5 billion tons of cement for us. It still is small and growing very rapidly. India is urbanizing. Vertical houses are increasing, but yet India still remains an individual home builder market. IHB, as they are called, continue to be the biggest demand driver segment for cement in India.
Another unique phenomenon, another important aspect to know about UltraTech, still being an industrial commodity, we have the largest retail footprint in the country, with over 3,900 stores at the close of this year and continuously growing. In quarter four, 16% of our sales were through this retail platform. We call it UltraTech Business Solutions or UBS stores. It is one-stop shop for an individual home builder requirement for all building materials. One thing which keeps everybody on their toes is the growth and supply of cement capacity in the country. Last year, 40 million tons of new capacity was commissioned, but at different points in time during the year, out of which UltraTech had a share of almost 1/3.
Nothing to get worried about, since demand estimated for FY 2023 was 388 million tons, which most likely is around 425 million tons for FY 2024. This is another 40 million tons of incremental demand. Point to keep in mind is that incremental effective supply would have been lesser than incremental demand, because the new capacity in the country would have come throughout the year and not having a 12-month run. All India capacity utilization seems to have increased by about 200 basis points to 71%. UltraTech this year, yet again, has achieved a significantly higher capacity utilization for the year at 85%, thus consistently making inroads into the market. Going forward, there might be some amount of moderation in FY 2025 in terms of demand.
However, our belief is that the slowdown should be shorter than earlier years... primarily because private sector housing has also picked up momentum. Industry could see a high single-digit growth this year as well. UltraTech should be surely doing better. Even though we had a 98% capacity utilization in January-March quarter, please rest assured we will have sufficient capacity available this year, too, to grow and keep growing. We should be adding almost 50-70 million tons this year, and our team's capability of commissioning a cement plant in time and then achieving a vertical start has been demonstrated time and again. To talk about prices, our realizations dropped about 6% QOQ. More or less, this kind of a pattern was observed all across the country.
However, an important aspect to note is that on a longer period average, the average prices have increased 3.5% CAGR over the last 5 years. Costs also have increased about 3.5%. But yet, this differential leads to an improvement in margins. On prices this year, we expect the pricing environment to remain stable or improve only, not going down any further. Let's just talk about costs. At UltraTech, cost efficiency, continuous increase in green power mix, lower fuel costs, increase in AFR and operating leverage continue to improve our cost parameters. Over the next three years, as we grow, you will see the operating costs continue to come down, and we should be seeing a reduction of almost INR 100-INR 300 per ton. Fuel costs, which are always a burning issue, remain at the same level, have stabilized.
We cannot have a concrete guidance on the fuel prices, given the large dependence on the geopolitical factors. Our fuel consumption cost for the quarter was INR 2.03 per kilocalorie. The cost will keep sliding down during this year, with material improvements being visible from January-March 2025 onwards only. A quick update on our CapEx program. All our organic expansions are on track. The Kesoram transaction, CCI approval has already been received. The plan is to merge with effect from 1/4/2024, subject to all regulatory approvals. We are waiting a nod from SEBI and stock exchange before we file the scheme with the NCLT. Interesting to note is that they have already refinanced and reduced the cost of their debt by almost 50%.
Keeping in mind the potential capacity that we will get from Kesoram in the same market, we have put on hold our Hotgi grinding unit expansion, which was a 2.7 million ton throughput capacity. We will revisit it at an opportune time in future. Last week, we had concluded the acquisition of a grinding unit in southern Maharashtra, and with available surplus clinker in the state, it gives us a unique opportunity to increase our footprint in the fast-growing state of Maharashtra. Dispatches from this unit have already commenced since last two days for UltraTech. Before I conclude, I must tell you that we have started this year with an available, fully available capacity of 146.16 million tons.
Indian market will continue to grow, and we have more capacity coming this year and the next. Our cash flows are strong and will strengthen further. Thank you so much, and over to you for questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Rahul Gupta from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple of questions. First, based on results that we have had until now, we have seen volume surprising positively across the board. Given UltraTech's positioning in the industry, I just want to understand if the industry is seeing front-loading of demand ahead of elections and monsoons, and if yes, is there a big risk for both volumes and prices over the next few months? Any color on this would be appreciated. I'll have my second question after this. Thank you.
So, Rahul, I think I already clarified that there might be a slowdown in FY 25, and you put a name to the reason. But however, the slowdown should not be long drawn because there are this year, practically, as we see, all the verticals, all the engines for demand are firing up. So even if there is a slowdown in one sector of demand, there could be a positive impact or the support would be given by the other drivers of demand. Private sector housing, rural housing, rural infra, everything is growing. So, and your second point, you mentioned about frontloading. I think when demand is there, everybody would want to fulfill the needs of their customers, and nobody would want to leave an opportunity. So that's the way I would read it, no more, no less.
Yes. That's very comforting. Thank you. Thank you, Atul, sir. So my second question is, you had made a point that you would see some deflation in fuel cost last quarter, and we have seen better than expected performance this quarter. So is it fair, based on spot prices, that fuel cost moderation is largely behind us, or how should we look at from here? Thank you.
You know, again, now, one more point to keep in mind. Now, the last episode, which happened, was the Baltimore crisis, the bridge which collapsed, which then shattered into place, which is slowing down the movement of cargoes from that side. So all these kind of events do have an impact. Now, Iran war happening or anything else happening, do have an impact. Having said all of that, we still don't see... And again, I had mentioned in my opening remarks also, we don't see too much of a negative impact on the prices of fuel. Next point to keep in mind is that a spot price is misleading, because that spot price comes into consumption almost five months later. Because take into account, the spot price itself is for ship loading at least 45 days to two months later.
Then you take the ocean freight time and everything else included, four to five months later. That is another point that you need to keep in mind. Having said all-
Maybe I was not clear. The point I was making that based on-
Yeah.
We not seeing enough moderation. Yeah, sorry.
Listen to me. We expect the fuel prices to soften for us continuously. However, you will see a dramatic improvement or substantial, I shouldn't say dramatic, but a substantial improvement from January-March quarter. From January-March 2025 onwards.
Perfect. No, this is, this is very helpful. Yeah.
All right.
Thank you so much.
Thanks, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashish Jain from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good evening. Sir, my first question is, you know, on cost, you spoke about, you know, INR 200-INR 300 rupee decline in the next, I guess, two to three years. Can you give some color on that? What will be the key driver, and, does it also factor any impact of lower coal prices? Because that's something which may or may not be controllable.
No, these are all controllable drivers, Ashish. First one is, as I have talked about our blended cement or conversion factor increasing if you... Improving. If you have noticed, this has improved to 1.44, and every decimal counts. That itself, by 2027, should bring a large part of the savings. Second thing is our investment in green power continues. Green power would be WHRS and renewable energy. Both of them today stack up to 24%. By 2027, we would have almost 60% or even higher than 60% being contributed by green power. The cost of green power, WHRS, all of you know, is almost 90% lower than thermal power, and renewable energy would be 40%, 40%, or thereabout, lower than thermal, the thermal power.
So these, these programs are in, you know, under implementation, so the benefit will come through. As we expand, as I mentioned, 15-17 million tons will commission this year, which is 2025, and by the end of 2027, we would be above 199 million tons. To be exact, 199.6 million tons of capacity. That's global, right?
Yes.
That including our UAE capacity. So, with that kind of dense network in India, we would have 70 locations servicing our customers. Naturally, my lead distance will come down. We know we have a plan in place which will help me reduce my lead distance. Second, next point would be alternate fuel. We are ramping up the consumption of alternate fuel. We are still pretty low, pretty, in, you know, around 5%-6% only. Even if it goes to 15%, and we are investing behind it, so it's not dependent on external factors. We are investing behind it. That will lead to an advantage. And lastly, when we are operating at 200 million tons of capacity, imagine selling 80%, 85% of that volume bare minimum, would generate a lot of operating leverage.
All put together, I am pretty confident that we will generate those gains.
Right. So, Atul, can you speak a bit more about the freight cost savings? I mean, you know, if you have to quantify that number, what kind of lead distance reduction can we take?
We are at 400 km of lead today. Per ton, per km cost would be a thumb rule of INR 3 per km. Even if a 25-km reduction happens, that is what would lead to INR 75 gain.
Okay, okay, got it. And, you know, just a continuation of this point, so how should we think about. Again, I'm not looking for a, you know, for a right or wrong answer, but how should we think about pricing in this context? Because, you know, you and, you know, one of the other larger players is also talking of a meaningful price, cost decline, all sustainable in nature. So how should we think about industry profitability in this timeframe?
Profitability is bound to improve.
Okay.
We will focus on EBITDA per ton, which will be on a northbound journey. And given the... And again, Ashish, I already mentioned in my opening remarks that this year, we expect the pricing environment, it's too difficult to predict, but we expect the pricing environment to be stable or be positive only.
My question is not like, forget fiscal 25 for a moment. My question is, you know, with 200-300 INR decline, that is a lot of leeway to have a healthy EBITDA per ton and still sweet pricing on the way down. So I was asking more from that point of view, you know, because this kind of pricing is a humongous number, right?
Yeah. So it is, it is. You should compliment... Won't you want to compliment us for delivering that improvement?
I would. Well, let's see that in the numbers. Yeah.
Thank you. Thank you, Ashish.
Okay, so my second question is on your cash flow. So this-
This is fourth question.
No, no, this is the second question.
All right.
Those are subparts. Those are subparts. So my second question is on CapEx. Like, this year, we have, you know, done a phenomenal job of, you know, managing our debt, even with, roughly INR 10,000 crore of CapEx. And, you know, we are kind of guiding for a similar CapEx for next year also. So how do we see leverage panning out from here? Do we see any upside risk to debt in the interim?
Our target is to inch towards zero net cash on the balance sheet by the end of 2025. Not taking into account the Kesoram debt. But, yeah, if I take that into account, so INR 2,700 crore net debt that we have today, we should be inching towards INR 1,500 crore-INR 2,000 crore of net debt, including Kesoram.
Okay. With Kesoram, you're saying? Okay. Yeah, yeah.
Without that, I am net cash on the balance sheet.
By 2025 end?
Yeah.
Just one last, very small question on Kesoram. Do we expect further reduction in interest costs, or do you think whatever they have achieved?
Yes, yes. So right now, they are on their own balance sheet.
Got it.
Once we get onto our balance sheet, we will look at reducing that cost further. They are now, I can share with you, they have dropped down to 11.5% or 11.25%. 11.5%, our cost of borrowing would be, in today's times, would be 8% or thereabouts.
Got it, got it. Perfect. I'll come back in the queue. Thanks so much.
Thanks.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants in the conference, please restrict your questions to two per participant. If you have any follow-up questions, if time permits, we will take the follow-up questions. The next question is from the line of Pulkit Patni from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Sure. So thank you for the questions. My first question is, if you were to just talk about consolidation in the sector, you mentioned that profitability from here should go up generally for the sector. We know brownfield CapEx is happening at much, much lower rates. Does it mean that we see further consolidation from here, or we don't see much, given profitability probably has bottomed out for the sector? That would be question number one.
So, Pulkit, I said about our profitability and not commenting about industry's profitability. I would not be an expert to do that. But maybe you are deriving that comfort from the fact that we believe that fuel costs will remain benign and the pricing environment should be positive. So in that scenario, as far as consolidation activity is concerned, there will be players, and it isn't known about the Indian cement industry, Indian cement industry. There are players who would want to cash out when the going is good. So I really don't know. As of now, I really can't comment on anything else.
Sure, sir. I mean, they cash out if going is good or if things are getting bad. But, yeah, either way, I think, we'll have to see.
Either way. So the point is, the bigger message is, Pulkit, we are growing and consistent, continuously, year after year, we, our presence is growing. As I mentioned, we would be physically present in almost 70 locations on our own, including Kesoram? Excluding Kesoram location, so 72 locations with Kesoram. So obviously, and the kind of brand pull and the respect that we, our product has in the marketplace, there's definitely a preference for UltraTech as compared to another cement. So that would be a message for lots of players.
... Sure, sir. Sure. My second question is more bookkeeping. This Nathdwara scheme of amalgamation, does it show anything? Is it already impacted the numbers that you've published, and will it impact the standalone for us, which means standalone numbers will show better growth? If you could just talk about that.
So in my results presentations, we've always shown India operations that was with Nathdwara. And in the published results, the statutory publication that goes out is a consolidated number this year with previous and current previous year numbers restated. So by volumes that we have reported are always with Nathdwara Cement earlier also.
No, that I'm aware. But I'm just asking that the standalone numbers that you have in your official publication, does that include Nathdwara or that doesn't?
Yes. Yes, yes. Because the merger was effective April 1, 2023.
Okay. Understood, sir. Thank you. That's it from my side.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Raashi Chopra from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Thank you. So on demand, you mentioned that the Indian industry grew at about 9% during the year. What is that number for the quarter, roughly?
7-8, 7-8% or thereabouts. It should be around 7-8%.
7%-8%. Okay. And when you say that FY 2025 could moderate, though not a lot, so there you're expecting again, the growth rate to moderate down from 9%?
For the full year, for the industry, yes, it should be maybe 7%-9%, but it should be high teens, high single digits, sorry.
Okay. On the pricing side, have you seen any changes in prices in April, or they just flat since March?
There have been sparks of improvement.
Across port or a few regions?
Several markets. So we've seen in Maharashtra port. So there have been positive movements only practically across all the markets, except north, we have not seen so much, north and west. West is already a well-priced market. So we have seen improvements, marginal improvements in eastern corridor, southern corridor. Central is okay. Central also, I will call it flat. So eastern, Maharashtra, south, we have seen improvements.
Okay. Thank you. And just on the coming back to the fuel costs, I think they're largely stabilized and obviously one can't predict them going forward. In the last quarter, you basically mentioned that we've seen a decline of about 6%-7% of the cost for the next two quarters.
Yeah.
The bulk of that has largely played out, so incrementally, what will come will be a function of efficiency gains and the green energy. Is that okay?
No. No, no. We, if you're referring to a fuel cost, like this quarter also, we had our fuel cost at $150 per ton.
Mm-hmm.
We have to reach a number of $130 when, you know, everything remaining same as of current times. This should be, traveling to a number of $130 per ton, given our mix that we consume. So that's the kind of improvement that you will definitely see in the next three quarters. three to four quarters, yeah.
That 200, the cost decline that you mentioned over the course of the next two years, the INR 200 decline, that?
I won't include the pricing. No, no. I, I have narrated all the elements. Those are efficiency improvement.
Mm.
This is pure purchase price. It can go up also or go down. But as of now, indications are that, you know, more unpredictable, but as of now, the indications are that it will not go up.
Okay. Thank you. Just last trade volumes for the quarter were how much? What percentage?
Trade volumes for the quarter? 65% or thereabouts. 55% is the mix.
Thank you.
Thank you. All participants are requested to limit their questions to two per participant. If time permits, we will take follow-up questions. Our next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, good evening, Mr. Daga. Thanks for the opportunity. So, first question is on debt. I see from your presentation that the debt in standalone books has gone down YOY, but in the consolidated books is actually marginally up and the net difference basically between consolidated standalone was INR 1,100 crores in FY 2023, it's INR 2,200 crores in FY 2024. So just wanted to understand, like in the subsidiary books, why has the gross debt gone up so much?
So this was a interest play opportunity that we had, where we could raise debt locally and give the money to our subsidiary, UAE, which the opportunity was over, so we repaid that debt in India, and they have borrowed it locally. So when we had given that money from India to the UAE, it was in the form of preference capital. That's why it would not appear as you know, that's why the number would look different to you, that their leverage has gone up. However, in their books, in the books of the UAE company, they always had that amount of money—earlier it was a preference capital. Now they have repaid that preference capital by replacing it with debt raised outside India.
Clearly, there is an interest rate arbitrage and opportunity that we have benefited from.
Got it. Got it. Thanks. That's, that's clear. And also the second question would be on Kesoram. So, like, I believe the final approval should come soon. So what will be the rebranding strategy over here? Like, how would you shift to UltraTech branding in Kesoram? Will it be across markets or region-wise?
No, no, no. So we will come to that. There's plenty of time. Now, the final approval, nahi, abhi to, we will get the approval from SEBI and stock exchanges to file the scheme with NCLT. Then there are shareholder meetings, creditors meetings on both sides of the company to happen, both sides of the, you know, parties to happen. They have their ROC and their NCLT out of Kolkata. We have to. We have Mumbai. So the meetings and orders have to be completed. It will take almost a year, if no less, maybe. We will reach a conclusion only by March 2025. We'll look at it after that.
Sure. And if I could just seek a clarification. So, if I understood it right, you said the fuel cost will decline, but mostly in Q4 FY2025, right?
Okay, let me clarify. So we will see marginal improvements quarter after quarter. And this, why is, why this is so? Because we had some high-price contracts which will get completely used up by the end of December. After that, we don't have any high-price contracts, so we will see much better performance January, March onwards. January, March 2025 onwards.
Thank you very much. I'll come back if I can.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, yeah, good evening, and thank you for the chance. So first question is on the demand, which, which I am trying to understand. If you could share, what would be the region-wide demand in fourth quarter and FY 2024? Just some broad numbers. And on the presentation, we are seeing East struggling in infra and commercial. If you could just share your outlook on how do we see FY 2025 for this particular market? Hello?
Sorry. Sorry, it was on mute. My, my bad. So, as I see the data, western markets continue to thrive with a very high double-digit growth. All other markets were hovering between 6-7% to 9% growth.
Sir, this is for fourth quarter or for the full year?
Fourth quarter.
Okay, okay. So East also, we were seeing mid-single digit kind of growth?
Yes, yes. What our presentation reflects upon is two specific areas. Now, this was again incidental because there were some transport strikes taking place over there. As we have mentioned earlier, also, there have been fiscal challenges in the eastern states, which are surfacing in low demand in those infra markets.
Okay, okay. And sir, how different would that be for FY 2024 as a whole, just to get some perspective?
FY 2024 as a whole, where are we? We are looking at only central markets were below 10%. All other markets were high single digits.
Okay, and East would have been.
I'm sorry, high double digits. I'm wrong. Hello?
Yeah, yeah, got that. And East would be the weakest, right, among these?
No, no, no. Relatively weak, because where south was strong, and then east, central, north, I would pick them in the same bucket.
Got it. Got it. That's helpful. Sir, my second question, more from a top-down perspective on the market share aspiration that we have. I mean, being the leader, if we've been growing ahead of the market, it is theoretically, it would have some bit of a constant deflationary impact on the prices. So is there a particular aspiration target over the next three, five years which we want to reach and maybe then maintain, given our size and leadership?
No, Sumangal, we want to grow with the market. In case, the Indian market is growing, we want to be present, and participate in that good. There's no, market share number that we can define or we decide. It's growth, as an opportunity that we are looking at.
Got it. Got it. All right. Thank you, and all the best.
Thanks, Sumangal. Next question, please. Where's the operator gone? Hello?
... The next question is from the line of, Ritesh Shah.
Yeah, you don't go away.
No, sir, I was there.
Ah.
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. So a couple of questions. First, sir, what do we make on the status of JP Super Dalla? We understand it's under arbitration, but how should we look at the timelines over here? And the second question, again, on the status is pertaining to Natal Valley.
Let's just complete the first question. So it's under arbitration. The matter is sub judice. I don't want to comment on that. Next one?
Sir, timelines?
I have no idea, yeah. You do know where, how, the court matters and judiciary matters get settled? There's no timeline.
Sir, second, again on status on Natal Valley, basically that you are planning in Northeast.
Yeah. So we have obtained the single window clearance. That is the license required. We will now... We have identified mines. We are doing due diligence on those mines so that we can fast-track our growth in that market.
Sir, any timelines over here?
You will hear from us within this year, within this financial year.
Okay. And sir, at the industry level, can you in.
Ritesh, Ritesh, next time. Let's move on.
Sure.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Indrajit Agarwal from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions. First question, sir, we have, we are almost at the touching distance of 200 million ton capacity by FY 2027, and we will be a net cash company by end of this year. So what next for us? So what are we planning? How do we see the progress from here on?
India is a growing market, and if there's an opportunity, we will keep growing. We are a very focused cement company. We will grow further. 200 is not the point where we will stop. If India requires more cement, we will give more cement.
We will have the organic opportunity to grow with it?
Yes. Most certainly.
Sure. My second-
We have mines, we have land, and in future years, I'll be talking about 2030 and beyond, we will have more mines, more land, and opportunities of growth. It all remains to be seen how India is growing. If India becomes top three economies in the world, then obviously we will also be there to participate in that growth story.
Sure. Thank you. My second question is on Petcoke consumption, as proportion, has consistently declined. This quarter also, we have seen from 44% to 36%. Is it a conscious decision given the cost, or is it more about availability?
It's more about availability, because, you know, Petcoke as a commodity globally is limited in supply as compared to coal. As and when a parcel of Petcoke is available, we bid for it. We don't want to increase the prices for Petcoke unnecessarily. So it's more about availability, I would say.
So just to follow up, the high cost that you mentioned, that is just for Petcoke or both for coal and Petcoke, the earlier contracts that you mentioned?
Coal. Coal. Coal contracts.
Okay, thank you. That's all from my side.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Navin Sahadeo from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for the opportunity. So two questions. First is, of course, on the cost front, and, 200-300 rupees per ton decline over three years is indeed a great number to be, you know, looked out for. And you also said that, in that, your CC ratio or the conversion ratio, will play a major role. So at your presentation, if I'm just taking a look, the CC ratio in FY 2014 was 1.3, to where we have come off 1.4, which is a CAGR of 1%, like, you know, each year. So from that perspective, just wanted to understand that how are we seeing this, CC ratio?
And then in that same context, what is the trade-off impact then on our overall realization as a result of this change or increase in CC ratio?
Very interesting point. So what, we are not at 1.4, we are at 1.44, because every penny matters. And from here onwards, we are seeing an increasing penetration of composite cement, which will help fast-track that percentage growth that you were looking at. If you had done a CAGR, I didn't see that CAGR. But yeah, going forward, since our composite cement is increasing at a rapid pace-
Sir, sorry, pardon my ignorance, but isn't it the clinker component in composite remains the same?
No, it's lower.
Okay, noted.
So cost of that cement will also be to our advantage.
Yeah. So my, my question really was, of course, then if this can reduce, so that INR 200-INR 2,300 each year, so can we take about INR 100 each year? And then, in relation to the CC ratio, what do you see the impact or trade-off on realization as a result of this change?
... So realizations, Naveen, have nothing to do with our conversion ratio. It will be a pure demand supply phenomena.
Okay.
I, when I'm giving you a INR 300, you know, plan, it's not quarter by quarter or year by year, it's an end state. I'm not able to predict how much will you see each year.
No, fair point. I appreciate that, and it is really very encouraging. Just that, one point, composite cement, would it sell lower than OPC?
Sorry, will it sell lower than OPC?
The price. Is the price point of composite cement lower than OPC?
Today, it might be lower, yes.
Fair, fair point. So just one observation. High, other operating income, and this is my second and last question. Other operating income sequentially has gone up by almost about INR 100 crore. So is there anything, like, you know, related to new capacity commissioning? Is this the run rate that we should see at roughly INR 350 crore, or it's purely linked to volumes?
No, it's a mix. Everything, you know, there is incentives that kick in with new capacities, volume play. Everything comes to the party.
Understood. Very helpful. Thank you, sir. I'll come back in touch.
Thanks, NavIn. Yeah.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you. So I have a couple of questions. One on, Kishoram, after the acquisition, if you look at your market share and, and asset footprint in that particular geography, do you think, there is potential, for you to acquire, another sizable asset within the same geography, given the CCI constraints? That's, that's the number one question.
Okay, so let's address the number one question. South is a very, very fragmented market. It is again, for you to analyze how, which market, which geography, the material is flowing in and flowing out. I believe there will be more opportunities for consolidation, for us also in South.
Okay. Thank you. Second question would be back to the questions on capital allocation capital. You, as you can see, you're reaching almost net cash position. As you look at deployment on renewable energy, we can see one of your competitors is actually taking all that CapEx on its own balance sheet, and the returns seem to be decent. Can we see... I know it's not the core cement business, but it's also vertically integrated in terms of the cost. Instead of going-
I have evaluated it, and the other players are also getting convinced that it is from financial returns point of view, our method is generating higher returns.
Group capital, yes?
Yeah, group capital scheme. Doesn't make sense to block capital and generate lower returns.
Okay. Just one quick question, if I can squeeze on the employee cost per ton. Again, one of the other peers, we're seeing the kind of numbers we've never seen in the cement industry of employee cost per ton of INR 150 per ton. The current gap between UltraTech and that number, is that how is that number possible? And is there a possibility for other players in the industry to bridge that cost gap?
Oh, well, if I'm bad, then we'll definitely try and improve further. Thank you for your inputs.
Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Prateek Kumar from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon, sir. My first question is on your M&A. So with the phase I, phase II, and III round of expansion, does that restrict you from any region in terms of your M&A and possibility regarding CCI? You said South is not, what about other regions?
So I think the markets are wide open. Markets are growing also. So I don't see a challenge. It has to be a profitable growth opportunity for us to get into the inorganic market.
So there's no CCI issue which can, like, sort of pop up in any of the markets, meaning like, sort of for smaller units which may look to acquire?
I don't foresee it. We did a very small unit, Burnpur in East. So smaller assets obviously can easily get absorbed. We did one, one unit in Maharashtra just now. Western markets, we are, if you count Maharashtra as part of West, we are very strong in the western markets. South, I already mentioned, is. Because of the fragmentation that exists in South, we should be able to look at opportunities.
So second question is on utilization. You talked about 98% utilizations in Q4, and industry has not, like, sort of taken hikes at that point. How would you see utilizations in, like, maybe in April or Q1 because of the expected deceleration?
You know, there are so many uncertainties right now in the current quarter. I will not be able to take any directional call on how this quarter will prevail. April has gone by. May still has elections happening. June will be... We'll have to wait and watch. I don't want to comment on that.
... lastly, on other expense, which is like largely remains stable Q-on-Q. Is this because of operating leverage? There's about 30% increase in volumes, in other-
I would imagine, so there's nothing abnormal. In fact, in our presentation also, we have mentioned operating leverage is the benefit. So there's no abnormal increase or decrease.
Sure. Thank you. All the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pathanjali Srinivasan from Sundaram Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
So thank you for the opportunity. Firstly, I wanted to know in terms of regions, East is getting a huge amount of capacity additions in the next couple of years. So is there any specific reason why this is happening? Because it's kind of an oversupplied region, based on my understanding.
You know, East is, East remains to be the fastest growing market, and there's a huge amount of IHB or a retail demand in the eastern corridor. That is why you see so much of, so much of capacity expansion taking place.
Sir, thank you.
These are temporary fiscal blips which are there, which will... I'm sure post-elections will get evened out, I imagine.
Okay. And just one more question, sir. In terms of realizations, given that it is a peak construction season and, why do you think there was a big decline in terms of prices?
More so because the markets were open and nobody wanted to let go of opportunity to service their customers, so nobody was focusing on prices. Volumes would have led to an improvement in profitability. I think that is what we would also look at, where our, if profits are, cash flows are good, profits are secured, that's what matters.
Sir, but our sensitivity to prices is much higher than that to volumes, right?
Yes, you are right.
Yeah, so for every 1% drop in prices?
No, it's a standard phenomenon at star science in India.
Mm-hmm.
When all India capacity utilization, all India, not one player, two player, one region, all India.
Of course.
All India capacity utilization is higher, then prices go up. Now when costs are softening, I would imagine that the players have not thought about taking price increases because their profitability is being delivered.
Got it, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Aman Agrawal from Equirus Securities. Please go...
Yes, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. I just have one question regarding the RMC business. We are seeing good growth, delivery during this quarter. Just wanted to understand on a broader basis, how do you see, as a segment panning out for India? See, what we understand right now, that for India, the conversion of cement to RMC is pretty lower than what Western countries, typically see, of around 50%+. So just wanted to secure views on this. How do you see this segment to grow?
It has to grow, and it has been growing. Still very small, you have rightly picked it up, and we see a huge potential for RMC as a play, and that is why we are also focused on it. When will we reach a 50% conversion? I don't have a science to tell you that, but it's on the right path.
Okay. And just a related question on the possible impact on EBITDA, you know, when converted cement converted sold through RMC route, any possibility?
No, RMC generate an incremental EBITDA, so, and we do a transfer pricing, so, it's not a— It's a good proposition.
Understood, sir. Understood. So, this is just
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and congratulations on good profitability. Sir, most of the questions answered just on the green share. So, how do we see this current 25.7% green share by FY 2025, FY 2026? I know you have mentioned more than 60% by FY 2027, but just wanted by FY 2025 and FY 2026.
So, you know, the programs are under execution. I don't have an immediate number for exit March 2025, but I'm confident that all these programs under execution will be completed by the time. And lots of the programs are along with our expansion that are happening from the current 140 million tons, as we progress to 190 million tons or 200 million tons. So we... You will see improvement continuously. 60% is definitely happening.
Sorry, sir, 60%?
60, 60%-
Okay.
Or 65% is definitely happening by the end of fiscal 2027.
Okay. But, but from here on, in terms of WHRS, how much more is planned to be added in next two years, in terms of the absolute capacity?
About 150 million tons of 150 MW of WHRS will get commissioned.
... Okay, okay. Okay, and, and in terms of the, when we mentioned the broader, INR 32,400 crore kind of a CapEx over the next three years, so this year, we have given a INR 9,500 crore kind of a CapEx. So similar, INR 10,000-INR 11,000 crore CapEx will be there for 2026, 2027 also.
Yes.
Oh, okay. Thank you and all the best, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Milind S. Raghuwans from Bank of Baroda Capital Markets Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for this opportunity, sir. Two questions, primarily. One is, if I look at the other expenditure, whether it is sequentially, compared to the volume growth, that is remaining slightly or, you know, stable. So is there anything that we need to read into this?
No, I think these are normal run rate expenses. If I look at an absolute quantum of money spent, you will see natural inflation.
24-614.
Mm-hmm. It's per ton, no?
Yeah.
This is on a per ton basis. Absolute amount might be slightly different.
Absolutely.
Hi. So absolute value of spend has slightly gone up, which is normal inflation. There is no abnormal expenditure that we are seeing.
So my question was like, if I look at on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the volume growth is something like very splendid, 30-odd%, and other expenditure is like 2.5% growth. So I'm just trying to reconcile that.
I really don't have any particular answer. Mukesh, anything specific?
70% in volume base, the remaining are based on fixed. Fixed is not-
There's nothing more to read into it. These are all routine expenses.
Okay. And the second question is, when you speak of the blending or the, or, the mix, where we have 0.4 CC ratio, 1.4 over the past decade. Incidentally, over the past decade, we have seen infrastructure pie going up. Again, how do we read this? I mean, is it when the infrastructure pie is going up, our blending pie is going up? So anything that how is... If you can just throw some light on this.
So, you know, there is a gradual. First and foremost, when the infrastructure size, it's not that all of them consume 100% OPC, they do a blending themselves also. Part blending they do. Now, that transition is happening, they are leaving the blending to cement companies, so that will, that will help improve the blending ratios.
Assuming that the infra project is largely driven by the government, realizations then would be, how should we look at the realizations? Is what I was, like, you know, trying to drive the point.
Realizations are generally stable, and consistent in the intra markets.
Okay. And the small thing, if you can give me incentive %, if you can just read that number.
Sorry, sorry what?
The incentive percent in the revenue, if you can just share that number, please.
How much is the incentive, anybody?
It's around INR 60 a ton.
Sorry?
INR 60 a ton.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, bye-bye.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rahul Gupta from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
I think he has dropped out.
Hello, can you hear me?
Yeah, can hear you.
Yeah, hi, sorry. Thank you for taking my question again. I, I'm sorry for my ignorance. I want to understand one basic thing. Given, you will be broadly doubling your capacity from 100 million ton to 200 million ton in just eight to nine years, is there any major cost improvement on costs because of newer plants being added? I mean, are there, are new plants being a lot more cost efficient? And if yes, is there a way we can quantify it?
Yeah. So there is a lot of technological innovation that the team is able to bring about, the expertise that the team has to turn around a project, the design, the calibration of equipment, everything plays in. As we have been growing, we have been learning from our previous experiences and experiences and improving further.
Hmm. But there's no way we can quantify this, right? I mean, there would be improvement, we know, but.
You know, the other point to look at. One second. The other point to look at, you should look at the CapEx cost in rupees per ton instead of dollars per ton.
Yeah.
Then, you will see that the reduction is gradual, and all those are efficiencies which the team brings in, whether it's in negotiations or execution.
Hmm. Yeah, makes sense. Okay. Okay.
Yeah.
Yeah, this is very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we would take that as our last question for today. On behalf of UltraTech Cement, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.