Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q4 FY22 earnings conference call of UltraTech Cement Limited. We must remind you that the discussion on today's call may include certain forward-looking statements and must be therefore viewed in conjunction with the risk that the company faces. The company assumes no responsibility to publicly amend, modify or revise any forward-looking statement on the basis of any subsequent development, information or events or otherwise. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Atul Daga, Executive Director and CFO of the company.
Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good evening, friends. I am glad to be speaking to you again at the end of this fiscal year, which yet again saw several disruptions and new beginnings. I guess cement is not for the weak-kneed people. I will try and focus on two key aspects in this meeting, demand and cost. Before that, I must refresh your mind that cement is always a long-term story. If you believe in it, then don't get disturbed by daily events. Let's look at demand. To my mind, as we have spoken in the past, India is fundamentally on a positive trajectory for cement demand, growing at a pace significantly higher than the world. Infrastructure, rural markets, and now urban housing has also started generating good traction for cement.
Infrastructure growth has been one of the key pillars of growth for cement in the country. As part of the budget, government has planned to complete further 25,000 kilometers of roads. Recently, there was an announcement about 220 new airports by 2025. Even if 100 airports were commissioned, you can imagine the amount of infrastructure in and around the airports, the airport itself will generate demand. On the housing front, the government is doing about 8 million low-income houses this year, which will generate demand from the rural segment. Another positive development is the revival in demand in the urban housing space. As you must already be aware, unsold top seven Indian cities has come down to the levels seen pre-COVID as property sales recovered very rapidly in 2021.
As per an independent report, in major metro cities sales have gone up very high. The housing inventory across cities is down to 32 months by end of 2021 from 55 months a year ago. New projects are good. New project launches are good, and this clearly shows sign for cement consumption will follow. Rural markets are also not going to be left behind. Fourth year in a row, the monsoons are expected to be good this season as well, which should result in a good harvest and improved cash flows for the rural markets. Three out of four engines of demand are humming well. Now the question is about rising costs and its impact on demand. I believe that the projects in this will not stop.
Construction costs are certainly going up, but construction work cannot stop due to other compulsions, like timelines to complete the projects and associated interest costs. Any further delay might increase the cost further, and hence, the existing projects will continue on their path of execution. What could certainly happen is a new home builder who has not started construction for the house may stall because his or her budgets have to be revised with the rising costs of materials used in construction of a house. This, to my mind, may not be more than 1%-2% of the incremental demand every year. Within no time, general elections 2024 will be around the corner, which will also boost demand.
As per estimates of the real estate players, cement is about 11% of total project cost and has had an impact of less than 1%, whereas all other products have impacted nearly 12% of their costs. On the other cost elements, which is fuel costs, coal and petcoke have risen to unrealistic levels. I believe they should cool down sooner or later. These are really unrealistic prices. There are uncertainties around the Russia-Ukraine situation which is anybody's guess. Crude prices are, of course, impacting our logistics costs. All possible efficiency improvement efforts are being put in place to minimize the impact of rising costs, and there's no choice but to increase the selling prices. April has witnessed recent price increases as well. I must clarify to you our position on white cement.
We have acquired a majority stake in a company called RAK White Cement in the UAE. It's a company listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Kuwait Stock Exchange. RAK White Cement is a market leader in the GCC region, and synergies with Birla White will boost its market leadership. This is a critical strategic investment to help strengthen Birla White in India. It provides us much needed access to additional capacity to serve markets in the country. White cement market in India is growing at a rate of about 7%. This capacity will help us meet the growing demand. We are now putting on hold the capacity expansion plan in India, which was about INR 978 crore, which we had announced recently, because we now will have access to RAK White Cement's 9 lakh metric ton of clinker and 6 lakh metric ton of white cement capacity.
Currently, they are operating at 65% capacity utilization. Their EBITDA margins are good at about 19.5%. Quality of product is good. Nearly 20% of their capacity is exported to India, and 45% is sold in the highly lucrative GCC African markets. Birla White will be able to secure white cement and clinker supplies from RAK White Cement to meet its capacity shortages. Our ongoing expansion is on track. CapEx spends have been at a record high of nearly INR 6,000 crore this year. God willing, we should be able to complete all our projects in time or ahead of schedule, in spite of the delays caused by COVID-related lockdown, labor shortages, oxygen shortages, and other related activities.
In spite of this, INR 6,000 crore of CapEx, we have yet been able to deleverage our balance sheet by a further INR 2,800 crore, and now ended the year with a 0.32x net debt to EBITDA. We are managing and maintaining our working capital on a very tight leash, again continuing on a negative working capital trend with upwards of INR 1,700 crore being negative working capital that we ended with. In sum, all is good. All is well that ends well. I would like to conclude on a happy note that we have crossed our annual revenues of INR 50,000 crore like an FMCG company with operating margins as close. Thank you so much.
Can we open the floor for Q&A, sir?
Yes, please.
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking the question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.
Yes, please. Systematix. Rahul Jain. In the queue right now. Hello?
The first question is from the line of Pinakin from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, sir. Sir, I have two questions. First, on price hikes. Now, there have been industry reports of very large price hikes. What we wanted to understand from you, sir, is that, as a company, have you taken similar price hikes in both the trade and non-trade segment? How has demand been in April versus last year? What has been the impact of price hikes on volumes at this point?
Yes, we have taken price hikes like the industry. Can't be left behind. Your other question was on trade, non-trade. Yes, both the segments have taken a price increase.
Sir, how has April trended so far, after the price hikes?
April is doing well. Doing better than last year.
Okay. Sure. Sir, my second question is on the media reports about UltraTech being a potential bidder for Holcim's assets in India. How should we read into it, sir?
Like I am reading the newspaper, you're also reading the newspaper, so that's about it.
Is it fair to say that the company is not interested in them, sir?
I wouldn't want to comment anything, you know, till the board takes a decision, so.
Sure. Fair enough. Thank you very much.
Newspapers say, yeah.
Sure.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Indrajit from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions. First, on raw material sourcing, particularly fuel sourcing. Costs aside, are you facing any concerns on shipment availability, particularly for imported coal or imported petcoke? Are the delays longer, and could it impact production at any point through the course of next 3-6 months?
Not at the moment. Shipment, you see, ocean freight is high, but freight availability and supplies are not restricted.
Sure. Even for rake availability in domestic, we are facing not-
The rake availability, you know, it is nothing to do with, it's normal. Suddenly some railway company will withdraw rakes. You would have read, in fact 16 passenger trains were shunted out to let coal movement for power plants. These kind of things keep happening in the country. This is normal.
Sure. Secondly, while you highlighted fairly detailed in terms of the home builder segment demand, but not just cement, every other commodity has gone up, and it looks like the cooling off is still some time away. Even then, particularly in the rural IHB segment, are you not seeing any impact on demand or?
April is growing in all segments, so I don't see anything cooling down. You know, as I mentioned, whatever has already started, it will be financially illogical, otherwise also illogical to stop the project in between, because whatever you have spent does not get into good maintenance. That also will get spoiled. You will require additional costs to bring it up. Interest meter will be continuously on. To that extent, only a person who was deciding to build a new house has to redo his or her own budgets. Instead of doing a 1,000 sq ft house, they might decide to do a 800 sq ft house or that's for the decision.
Sure. Thank you. One last question, if I may. Is there any change in fuel mix on a sequential or year-over-year basis, I mean, between petcoke, imported coal and-
We keep playing with the mix. Last quarter, I think petcoke was 25%. This quarter it is up around 40%.
All right. Thank you so much.
Petcoke
petcoke
Today, petcoke landed is definitely in energy terms, is far cheaper than coal. Efforts will be to increase petcoke consumption.
Sure. That's all from my side. Thank you very much and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, couple of questions. Sir, first on white cement, could you please repeat the volumes? You did indicate 20% of that capacity currently caters to India.
Yeah.
Sir, can you give that numbers, please?
20% of 600,000 tons, 120,000, is approximately getting imported in India.
Okay. Sir, you also said that we will put to rest the expansion, what we had announced.
Yes.
Sir, how should one read this? Is it because of the limestone?
No. Because we will have access to RAK White Cement's product. That is why we have spent money on this investment. No need to invest right now on expanding in India.
Sir, if one had to look at it on delivered cost basis, still this would be more meaningful as compared to moving cargo from, say, north to south. That was one angle that I was thinking of. Probably it could be cheaper on delivered cost basis. The other question was, if RAK was supplying to, say, paint majors or other companies, would it mean that they would continue to supply or would that material will come to Birla White and we will dictate where to supply? How should one look at that part of the equation?
Yeah. Obviously, the priorities will change for RAK White Cement because they will have to cater to Birla White first before catering to other customers.
Okay. Sir, on delivered cost?
Delivered cost, it's cheaper. The freight from Ras Al Khaimah to the ports of India is as economical as transporting from our plant in Rajasthan to Andhra, Karnataka and those markets.
Okay. Sir, just a follow-up. Is there a volume arrangement, a minimum offtake that we have from UAE? Can this 20% go to 50% or more going forward?
There is no minimum requirement, and there's no minimum commitment. Whatever I want, we will want to definitely prioritize for India. As long as it is value accretive for that company, they will also want to do that. They will also want to increase their capacity utilization. They will also, you know, benefit from the expertise of RAK White. Benefit from the expertise of Birla White. Birla White is a branded product, far more respected than other products which are getting imported in the country.
Sir, will we look to increase our stake over here?
We will definitely attempt to do that.
Sure. Sir, just another question. Any update on divestments, 3B Fibreglass?
I forgot to mention in my commentary. We have completed the divestment of the non-core assets. Funds have already been received on the 30th or 31st March. In fact, we had completed the closing. We are done and dusted.
Okay. Perfect. One last question, if I may squeeze in, sir. How should one look at fuel inflation into next quarter?
I'm sorry.
Sir, how should one look at fuel inflation into next quarter, given you indicated like petcoke is up?
Million-dollar last question, Ritesh. All I can say is your guess is as good as mine, and it's a lottery. You know, today if you buy at X price, tomorrow it could be X minus or X plus. There is no way to predict or forecast how these prices will go. Coal, as you know, from the $300, it has softened in the last couple of months to $250 or thereabout. It has spiked again.
Sure, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Madhav Marda from Fidelity International. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, sir. Good evening.
Hi, Madhav.
Thank you for your time. I just want to ask that, for UltraTech, in case if we are a potential bidder, like from a CCI point of view, are there any particular regions where it is easier or difficult for us, just from Competition Commission.
We'll see if we do it. Why should we start building castles in the air, so I really don't know.
Okay, got it. All right, that's our only question. Thank you.
All right.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, good evening, Mr. Daga.
Good evening.
Yeah, just, first question is like on FY23, could you just provide some CapEx guidance?
CapEx guidance, we should be closer between INR 4,000-INR 5,000 crore, which will complete all our ongoing expansion, plus whatever other WHRS projects are there. INR 4,000-5,000 crore.
Okay, given that your expansion will be done by the end of this financial year, like, I believe in the last call you had said that probably by Q4 you would finalize the new plan.
Yes. Yes.
You know, what's the status on that?
Sorry, finalize what?
As in the new investment plans beyond FY23, so.
We will come back to you once the board approves. We are working on our growth plans because clearly we see India is a growth story. We don't want to de-grow when India is growing, so we will definitely keep growing. We will expand.
Sure. What's the status on Dalla Super as of now?
Dalla Super, I know it is delayed, but the latest is that stage one approval was completed and it, the file should be moving from UP to MoEF Delhi for stage two clearance this month. Keeping my fingers crossed, we should be able to get the plant in our hands by the end of this quarter. If it's June quarter.
Okay, probably another 6-9 months to revamp it.
Yes. Absolutely.
Last question is like on this white cement acquisition. Like, will it also help improve or lower the competitive intensity because I believe imports were actually coming in and-
Yes, certainly. Certainly.
Okay. In that sense you would probably look to improve the price realizations also in India by.
Certainly.
Okay. Thank you. That's all.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pulkit Patni from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Atul, sir, two questions from my side. First, you mentioned in the presentation about $164 of fuel cost. Could you identify this is what kcal of coal? The reason I'm asking this is that if you look at where coal prices are now, petcoke prices are, I mean, looks like we are staring at a massive increase in the subsequent quarters. If you can tell us that kcal, that will help us calculate that better.
About INR 2,000 per million kcal.
Is what you're using for this $164 number?
Yes. Yes, absolutely.
Okay, that's helpful. Secondly, can you also identify what is the proportion of captive coal that we have right now and any sense on where that number would be in the next, say, 6-12 months?
Captive coal, FSA coal?
Yes.
Sorry.
I mean linkage plus, yeah. Mm-hmm.
Should be about less than 20%.
Less than 20%.
Less than 20%. Yeah.
Okay. That's it from my side. Thank you.
Thanks, Pulkit Patni.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Prateek Kumar from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir. My first question is, I mean, in the opening remarks you mentioned that, looking to commission everything on your capacities in FY23. So that would mean like 11 million ton clinker and 16 million ton grinding, for FY23. So can you space out like quarter-wise if you have that data, like how are you looking to commission during the-
I think I have given that earlier also. Let me tell you. Just give me one second. Oh, one second. Where is that sheet gone? Expansion. Towards the end of Q2, we should have another 4 million tons. End of Q3, 1.5 million tons. Q4, the balance.
Balance 10.
Yeah.
What about clinker, likewise? 11 million tons of clinker, which we are targeting for 2023.
Yeah. This includes the clinker also. Clinker was Hirmi, Pali, and Dhar. Yeah, it should be by Q3.
Okay. Pretty much everything by Q3, including the Dalla Super and grinding by Q4.
The only thing is Super Dalla, I've been keeping my fingers crossed because dealing with this process, it's too complicated. Something or the other keeps surfacing. I've been promising you guys about Dalla Super since last one year. Every time I think I'm at the last mile, but suddenly, a new mile surfaces. Keeping my fingers crossed is all I can say.
Okay. In your presentation, for various recent sectoral updates, region-wide commentary, you mentioned that rural housing seems to be doing better in central, west and south, and probably exports are doing well as well. This seems to be different versus some of the commentary from industries like Nissan or FMCG or auto companies, on rural commentary. While you highlighted something in previous comments, but can you detail more like so there's no rural setback in general for cement sector?
I'm not seeing any setback. If not, for example, what we saw in Q4 would be a temporary phenomena because of extreme cold or elections happening in that belt. Other than that, it's back to normal. You know, I wouldn't be able to compare FMCG and construction in the same bucket also.
My last question on your fuel costs. Like this volume of prior question, $64 versus I think in 2Q you said around $160. So, is there-
$60 or $151 was Q3, and this quarter was $154. $164, right? $164.
Yeah. Comparable number like let's say you would. I mean, I know that it is difficult to forecast, but like you would have inventory for at least first quarter. How could this move like in first quarter 2023?
It will go up. I expect at least a 10% increase.
Right. Thanks, sir. These are my questions.
Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you, sir, for the opportunity. First question, just want to understand across the fuel, what is the inventory day which we carry? I mean, is it like 45 days or two months?
We fluctuate between 45-55 days. Suddenly if a shipment lands in, then it will spike up. Otherwise, an average of 50 days is good to hold.
Okay, I understand. Sir, given the current overall fuel situation, blended cement cost versus your OPC would have of course moved very favorably towards blended. Just want to check is there any impact on your other raw material cost? I mean, what sort of price inflation is happening in slag, fly ash, et cetera?
We have seen inflation across. Fly ash has also gone up. Overall raw material cost has gone up 6%-7%.
Seven.
7%. You know, you have seen an increase in cost across the board.
Okay. This is for fourth quarter and the cost must be still continuing to rise, right?
Not necessarily on these items like fly ash is more of contractual in nature. You might not see such a high jump again this quarter, but general inflation would be there. Inflation itself is 6%-7% now, by the way.
Yes.
Yeah. Sorry. Diesel is something which is unpredictable, which impacts raw material costs. Limestone raising costs moves with diesel.
Understood. Just one more question on the price hikes. I mean, you shared that they've been taking price hikes across. Is it possible to give any very broad quantification, region-wise or overall pan-India quantification?
Over what period? That becomes very confusing.
Yeah. April versus 4Q average or something like that.
4Q was March. March was INR 365. Average, if I look at, for the March quarter was around INR 360. It's roughly around INR 390 now.
Okay. Understood. Will it be fair to say that, I mean, some part of cost inflation is yet to be covered, so there will be further attempts?
Attempts, yes.
Okay. Got it. All right. Thank you and all the best, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Girish Choudhary from Spark Capital Advisors. Please go ahead.
Thank you.
Yeah. Hi, thanks. Thanks for taking my question. A couple of questions. Firstly, on now that with the second-largest player combined seeing a potential change of hands. As the industry leader, how do you see dynamics changing for the industry and then possibly for you with the potential Indian promoter coming in? Will that make you even more aggressive or maybe look at inorganic slightly aggressively? Just wanted to know your thoughts on this development.
We will focus on our growth. As I mentioned, right now we are reaching 130 million tons, and the next phase of growth will also kick in because we expect Indian market to be growing. As far as assets changing hands, whoever buys it, they will have to generate returns on that asset and be logical in whatever they are doing.
Got it. More from UltraTech's inorganic opportunities, given your scale of capacity and cash flows. Beyond a point, I think organic growth might not help. Are you prepared to look at inorganic opportunities?
Yeah, yeah.
-aggressively?
Certainly. We keep examining opportunities. Unfortunately, you know, while the current news media reports are the talk of the town, but there are smaller assets which keep surfacing, which we examine, good, bad, ugly. It has to be a composite asset for us to move forward.
Got it. My second question is on the region-wise demand performance. Here again, if I look, east is the only region which is continuing to see demand decline by three consecutive quarters of demand declining on a YOY basis. What's happening here and when do you see demand bouncing back here?
Sorry, I missed your question. Demand which segment?
In the eastern region.
Eastern region. My sense is, eastern region will this year show the fastest growth again. In terms of volume, there is a lot of inflow which happens from outside east. Now capacities will be available in the eastern markets. Our capacities will also surface in this year. East will grow.
Okay. I think my question was more, I think, this region has seen three consecutive quarters of demand decline. What is driving this deterioration and then when do you see this?
Driving the deterioration, yes. You know, there was a sand issue, big time sand issue in Bengal and Bihar, few months ago. There were torrential rains, which impacted construction activity. These two factors for sure impacted construction activities.
Got it. Thank you. Thank you and all the very best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. Mr. Daga, a couple of questions. One on petcoke, I think you mentioned petcoke is cheaper on a delivered basis on a per kcal basis. Your inventory cycle is largely now like 45, 50 days. Is there a change in thought recently or would there be a change in thought? Would you, given where prices are, either look to layer in more inventory because you're maybe concerned prices may go up or maybe shorten the cycle thinking prices may actually go down or maybe maintain a status quo? Or can we assume basically that the 50, 55 day inventory cycle will remain largely similar in the coming months?
No. The thing is nobody can predict, and it will be gambling if I take a call. Yes, if there are opportunity, some opportunistic trades available, we will look at those trades. Today it's quite expensive, so we are maintaining our normal procurement plan instead of gambling on prices. You know, nobody can forecast. You yourself mentioned it could go down, go up, anything can happen.
Okay. Second question on the next phase of growth that you mentioned. Obviously, the parent company is looking at different options and there is optionality across the portfolio. When you look at the options that sit in front of you right now, if you had to pick maybe certain plants, certain regions ahead of others in your pecking order, is there maybe some where you can possibly pull the trigger ahead of others?
I will tell you when we do it. I can't reveal it right now.
Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Navin Sahadeo from Edelweiss. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hello, am I audible?
Navin, speak a little louder, please.
Yeah. Can you hear me now?
Yeah.
Okay, great. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, just one question. On the fuel mix, you said petcoke in the current quarter, as in March quarter, increased to about 40%. Linkage coal, to one of the other participants' question you said is less than 20. Roughly around a little less than 60% is what petcoke and linkage coal put together is. Imported coal should make up for the balance 40%?
Absolutely.
This is for the kiln. For the captive power plants that we use, what is the cost-
It's largely FSA, domestic basically.
Largely FSA.
Domestic.
Largely, domestic coal only.
Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
Where there is not much increase or there is a fair amount of e-auction coal also there?
No, there's not much increase.
Understood.
We all are on FSA, so linkage prices prevail.
Oh, great. Only the kiln portion is where we see.
Yeah.
Inflation part of it.
Yeah.
Okay, great. That's it from my side. Thank you.
Thanks, Navin.
Thank you. The next question is from the lin e of Raj Gandhi from SBI Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
He's also gone, so take the next one. Message done. We will take the next question.
Yeah. The next question is from the line of Rajesh Ravi from HDFC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, sir. Good evening. You talked about the fuel cost that we are looking at in Q, and you mentioned at least around 10% increase. However, if you look at the prices which are prevailing in Q and on a per kcal versus, you know, INR 1.5-INR 2, they're already north of INR 3 per kcal. So, you know, how is that number, you know, for you looking so cheaper, sir?
It will depend on the fuel mix, the carrying cost, the inventory which is there.
Mm-hmm.
Anybody and everybody could, you know, have some advantage or disadvantage.
In your balance sheet also, annual balance sheet numbers that are available, there is a INR 150 crore increase in inventory. Is it fair to assume large chunk of that would be a fuel inventory?
Yeah, large chunk because it is a price impact on the fuel inventory.
Yeah, even that could be one factor. Even in volumetric terms, that could be a number which you're looking at. Okay. In terms of CapEx, you mentioned that around INR 5,000 crore plus, you know, CapEx towards your green initiatives, right? For FY23.
All inclusive, yeah.
Lastly, this Dalla, how much we have spent so far or, you know, what is the amount which needs to be spent? This is 2 million tons clinker, right?
We have not spent anything because we still have to first get MoEF approval.
Mm-hmm.
We have estimated that it would cost anywhere with around INR 200 crore or INR 250 crore to revive the plant.
Okay. This is, that's the 2 million ton clinker, sir, or is the grinding also, sir?
No, sir. It is only clinker, 2.3 clinker.
2.3 clinker. Great, sir. I'll come back to you. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashish Jain from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good evening. Sir, I have two questions. Firstly, on demand, you know the table that you put out in the presentation, you know, it has fair bit of reds this time around. Relative to that, how has the demand changed in the last few weeks, if at all, in terms of the drivers of demand?
April is growing YoY.
Okay. Like, where's the delta coming from versus Q4? Is it any specific driver?
No, not Q4. I'm saying YOY. You can't repeat Q4.
No, no, I know. Sir, I understand that. I'm saying that, you know, if I look at the YOY trend in Q4 and compare that with YOY trend in April, is there a specific reason for the-
Ashish, I'm not able to track the demand, you know, sales on a day-to-day basis which segment is buying, so it is difficult for me to comment on that.
Right. Okay. Sir, secondly, you know, in response to earlier question, did I hear you right that, you know, pricing today is INR 30 higher by and large versus Q4 average?
Yeah. The exit price is, if I want to say, as of now they are not average April, but I don't know, INR 30 higher. T hat would cover us for the-
Cost inflation by and large, I think, going by the number you indicated.
INR 30 going in the month of May, if the price increase holds for INR 30, then it's good.
Okay. Got it. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Raj Gandhi from SBI Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks a lot for the opportunity. Just, you know, going by the kind of cost inflation that we are seeing, any initial assessment in terms of the cement CapEx cost? What will be the impact? We are hearing chip shortage and all of that even delaying the cement plants. In terms of timelines and all on the equipment side and
As far as our existing expansion program is concerned, as I mentioned earlier, there's no delay. If you were to look at a new greenfield project cost, there I'm sure it's the costs have gone up by 20%-25%.
Okay. In terms of timelines and all, because, you know, on the equipment side and all also we are hearing a lot of
No, I don't think so, because equipment suppliers continue to have enough capacity to my mind. What you are referring to some, you know, some insights you might have, which I don't have, as in some manufacturers facing some shortages, whether, you know, DCS or something like that, I am not really aware.
Sure, sure. Broadly, most of the equipment is.
Yeah.
Not with a long lead. Okay.
Nobody has, you know, warned us.
Okay. Sure. Perfect. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rakesh Vyas from HDFC Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Good afternoon, Mr. Daga and team. Actually two, three questions, if I may. First one, just a clarification. You are highlighting April is better YOY, but just wanted to check. Last year, April was impacted by the second wave in terms of demand. How should we look at it? In the context that price hike expectations were already built in the system, post price hike, if you can just highlight as to how demand is trending.
Post price hike, again, I'll repeat, YOY it is growing. Now, whether there was an impact of COVID or, why should we factor in only, negatives? Let's look at it positively. Now, this month is growing. The price hikes have been absorbed, if that is what you're trying to conclude. Your conclusion is right.
Okay. Got it. The second question is related to fuel mix. Essentially, the price arbitrage that exists between imported coal versus the rest of fuel basket, implies that, most of players would be, vying for a higher proportion of the remaining basket. To that extent, how confident or are we in terms of maintaining the availability of this mix and maybe improving it? The context being that petcoke availability is reasonably limited, and so is the concern that we are hearing on the domestic coal side.
Sorry, what was the question?
The question was that given the price arbitrage that exists between imported coal versus the rest of the fuel basket.
Stability. Yeah. Yeah, you know, technically one would look at getting more of petcoke and more of domestic coal. As of now, as I mentioned earlier, availability does not seem to be a challenge. One more factor which is very important, not from today's perspective but what happened after Winter Olympics of China. China has announced a substantial increase in their coal production plan.
300 million tons.
I would quote a wrong number. That is one. Second is post Winter Olympics, all their mines which were stopped, power plants which were stopped, have started again. There's a huge amount of huge reduction in imports into China, which is making material available for the rest of the world.
Got it. Sir, one last question is around the capital allocation going forward. Given that, we are expected to generate strong cash flow and our CapEx is going to be fairly stable, and net debt already came down very, very sharply, how should we look at incremental deployment of the free cash flows going forward?
You know, this year, again, we have declared about 20% of net profits for shareholder returns. I believe this component will keep growing in future years. Next year for sure, because next year, FY23 additional capacities will generate additional cash flows. Then the cash will be used for internal growth. As I mentioned earlier, we are already back on the drawing board for our next phase of growth, so we will look at growth opportunities.
Great.
Inorganic or organic.
Got it. Just one last clarification. If I have to look at the adjusted number, after accounting for the tax provision changes that we made, in fourth quarter, is it fair to assume that the benefit of tax adjustment changes was close to INR 1,300 odd crore?
INR 900 odd crore. INR 983.
Okay. Got it. Great. Thank you so much and good luck.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashutosh Adsare from SBI General. Please go ahead.
Hello. Am I audible?
Yes, please.
Hi, sir. Just wanted to understand. You have brought your net debt to a significantly low level of 0.32 to EBITDA. Going forward, you are also looking for inorganic growth. At what level you'll be comfortable putting that net debt level?
I would look at 0.5x as our threshold going forward. However, suppose there's an inorganic opportunity, it might spike up. Now we are confident with given the size of cash flows, we should be able to bring it down within 12 months period. Otherwise, a steady level of 0.5x is a good number to maintain on our balance sheet.
Okay. This, the three times on net debt to EBITDA, we won't see in the near future. Is that?
Yeah, yeah.
Your end line? Okay. Thank you. That's it from my side.
If you throw up an acquisition which is so attractive, which requires me to pile up 3x, I will do it.
Is there any asset in your radar?
You might have something, you tell me.
Okay. UltraTech then.
Next question.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sanjay Nandi from Ratnabali Investment. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.
Yeah.
Good evening, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.
Yes, please.
Hello?
Yes, sir. Please proceed with your question.
Yeah, sir, just to mention, sir, do you have taken a price hike of INR 30 per bag? Is it good enough to cover all the inflation that has happened as of now?
As of now, it looks good. Again, let me correct you. It is not an absolute amount of INR 30 through the month. Multiple price hikes taken during the month, which today are amounting to INR 30 increase over the average of last quarter. Going in, for the month of May, if prices hold, then obviously the INR 30 increase is available. If costs don't go up further, then yes, we are covered.
Sir, if we presume like coal prices are stable here so far, so is INR 30 good enough to cover all those incremental cost?
Yeah, that's what I said. Going in, if everything remains same, then we are covered.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much, sir. That's all from my side, sir. Wish you all the very best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Specifically on this pricing what you have indicated, possible to give some regional flavor?
Sorry, what?
Sir, possible to give some regional flavor. You indicated INR 360 going to INR 390, a INR 30 bump on an exit rate basis. Is this something which is consistent on a pan-India basis or are there some regional trends surprising over here, sir?
I think 5%-10% increase is what I would give you a range across the markets, except for South, which is below 5%.
Sure. That's helpful. Sir, my second question is on incentives. Sir, can you put some numbers for the quarter for the fiscal what we had? Given we have a lot of expansions which are lined up, how should we look at this number going forward? Given most of the industrial policies from the states where we have or where we are setting up capacities, they have decent quantum of incentives. Sir, how should one understand this particular variable?
Will have incentives. Pali will have incentives. Dhar will have incentives. Which else in the expansion? Dhule will.
Dhule.
Maharashtra will have incentives.
Patna will have incentives.
Patna will have incentives. Your other question about incentives for the quarter. Guys, give me a number, please. Just one second.
Yeah. Sir, how should this number trend going forward, given the expansions also what we have?
There are multiple plants which are having incentives. Somewhere the incentive might get completed, somewhere a new incentive will come up. The incentives for the quarter was INR 100.
Hundred.
Hundred.
Hundred.
About INR 170 crores. Sorry, INR 117 crores.
Sir, any broad ballpark number, if we have to look at the post-fiscal first post-quarter of FY24, by then all those expansions will be there and commissioning will be done.
No, you know, some incentives will get completed as well.
All right.
I don't have an exact number. INR 117 crore could go to INR 150 crore or lower. It could go to the incentive sheet. Just one second.
Sir, meanwhile, can you indicate on we completed the year on construction chemicals for how much of revenues? You had indicated a target of INR 25 billion in three years. Any particular update over there, sir?
BPD, one second. Can I have a number? BPD sales. Just one second.
Sure.
Give me a second.
A hundred crores. Hundred crores.
INR 100 crores for this quarter. Around INR 100 crores for this quarter.
Sir, for the year?
For this quarter. For this, for the year, I don't have the number ready.
Sure. Sir, any progress over here? Given we had given a strict target of INR 2,500 crore in three years.
Yeah.
-are we looking at any way-
I am looking at opportunities to acquire some assets. Of course, the assets are very small ticket size. We'll see as and when we are able to conclude.
Sure, sir. That's quite helpful.
Thank you.
Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. On behalf of UltraTech Cement, that concludes this conference. We thank you all for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.
Thank you.