Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Vardhman Special Steels Limited Q1 FY26 Earnings Conference Call hosted by IIFL Capital Services Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Yash Upadhyay. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of IIFL Capital Services Limited, welcome to the Q1 FY26 Post-Earnings Conference Call of Vardhman Special Steels Limited. I also take this opportunity to welcome the Senior Management Team. On today's call, we have with us Mr. Sachit Jain, Vice Chairman and Managing Director; Mr. Sanjeev Singla, CFO; Mr. R.K. Rewari, Executive Director; and Ms. Soumya Jain, Executive Director. Now, I hand over to the management for their opening remarks, which will then be followed by a Q&A session. Over to you, sir.
Thank you so much. Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon, and thank you for coming to our conference call. Last quarter has been good and slightly tough on.
Coming in.
Good that our volumes are intact in terms of our targets. We've also implemented our Kocks Block very well. That is getting stabilized. In fact, it was in good operation from day one. We did not lose any material because of any bad quality or anything. It's stabilized much faster than was anticipated. That went well. On the margin front, there is a pressure because there are fresh tech players from the outside, and therefore, price cutting continues. As a result, our margins are at the lower end of our EBITDA range. We are at about INR 7,000 EBITDA per ton for this quarter. Also, raw material prices are at a declining trend, and therefore, there's an investment valuation loss of roughly INR 6 crore. With that, actually, the margins are slightly... actual margins are slightly better than what appears in the numbers.
On CapEx, as I said, the Kocks Block is successfully commissioned. New heating furnace is in progress. It should get commissioned in the last quarter of this year. The solar plant is in the last stages. It should have got commissioned by the June quarter, but there is a small court case which has come in for some of the line, which may delay this project, and it should be cleared by August. That is still in progress, and the new NDT line is in progress. On the Greenfield steel plant, I'm very happy to report that our partners, Aichi a nd the Vardhman team, have started working together. RFQs for the equipment are going to go out this week, and land purchase is in progress. We hope to commission this plant in July 2029 as per an aggressive schedule as we had put forward.
For this, Aichi h as already put in equity. INR 385 crore have come in from Aichi, with which their equity stake has gone up to 24.9%. This has gone in a significant vote of confidence in the company. As the need for funds comes up later, there will be further fund infusion in the form of equity, which could come from either Aichi o r Vardhman Group, or a QIP, or a combination of the three. There will be a loan component, which will be taken from one of the commercial banks. We intend to be conservative in the balance sheet, and even at the peak, we will be targeting a Debt-to-Equity ratio of about 0.5:1 because it's important to be conservative while the plant is getting commissioned. Once the plant is commissioned, then you have more flexibility in the financial structures.
This capital that has come in has gone largely to repay all our debt, and we have become a debt-free company now. The remaining is in FDs, which will be used as and when we need funds for our CapEx. We also have a very important update, which happened in the previous board meeting, in the just concluded board meeting. As most of you know, our partners, Aichi , are one of the world's leaders in forging, and in the area of specialized forging for automotive, they are perhaps the world's number one company. After years of studying the Indian market, they finally decided to enter India, of course, through VSS . We are looking for a specialized product where there is hardly any competition in India. That line is being discussed together between our teams.
Our target is that it should come up almost at the same time as the new steel plant comes up, maybe a little before, maybe a little after. The detailed project cost and the detailed plan will be finalized in the next six months. At this point of time, I think it suffices that this kind of new line of business of forward integration is going to start. We believe this is going to be a major business going ahead in the future. That's all from me at this point in the opening remarks. Mr. Singla will carry on with some financials, and then we can have the Q&A. Thank you.
Thank you, sir. On the financial side, first quarter compared to the first quarter of last year, this quarter, we have achieved a total volume of 55,500 tons of sales, which is higher by about 10% for the corresponding quarter of last year. Revenue from operations is INR 433 crore, higher by 5%. Some mitigated because of the decline in prices happened in the last year and this quarter also. EBITDA per ton is at INR 39 crore, lower by 18%, primarily because of two reasons. As Jain sir has already explained, this quarter we have inventory valuation loss of about INR 6 crore. That is one. Second, last year, our production was for the full quarter, whereas in this quarter, there is a shutdown of 10 - 12 days because of Kocks Block. Last year, the fixed cost allocation was on a larger quantity.
As a result, EBITDA per ton for the quarter is INR 7,077, still well within the stated range, but at the lower end. As a result, our PAT stands at INR 20 crore, as against INR 26 crore in the corresponding quarter. That's all on the financials, and I now invite the questions. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question will press star one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Participants who wish to ask questions may press star one now. The first question is from the line of Anil Kumar Sharma, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Sir, good afternoon, and I congrats for a good number in a tough situation. Sir, I have one query regarding this coming expansion, as you mentioned. Sir, when do you think it will be complete? 2029, it will be started. When do you think it will be completed? Full benefits when can be started? What do you expect the return on capital employed? You have always stressed for a 20%+ return on capital. What do you think on those lines? What is the forging? How much? Any estimate on the forging plant that will be separate from this Greenfield steel plant project, I think?
Do you want me to discuss?
Yes. The new plant, we expect it to start by July 2029 and full capacity utilization because approvals will all take time. Every plant will have to be approved again. Thanks to Aichi a nd their technical prowess, our approval process should not take as long as a normal new steel plant would take. We expect in between two to three years, the plant should reach full utilization. That will be our target. Full benefits, I would say in three years' time is what we will target. Return on capital employed, once the plant is fully commissioned and fully utilized, should be around the same figure that we have always said, around 20% EBITDA on capital employed, company as a whole. We will be targeting towards 20%. We will hit 20% hopefully by then, and then our target will be to go back up to 25%.
Thank you, sir. I have one more question. Sorry, last question.
As regards to forging?
Yeah.
Yeah, regarding the forging.
Yes, sir.
Forging CapEx will be in addition to the CapEx already announced. Details as of now, as I said, in six months' time, all planning details will come up over the next six months. We'll have more details to share, stricter approximate timelines, revenue, expected investment, all those things we should be able to share in about six months' time, roughly six months' time.
Thank you, sir. Sir, one more question regarding this current ongoing expansion.
When you come back, Anil G, can you come back once other people...
I will.
We'll be happy to answer your question after that.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Radha from B&K Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, hello, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, in your opening remarks, you mentioned about pricing pressure being litigated on account of some larger competitors. Please give some more highlights in terms of what is the total supply and demand of our products in India today, and which are the key competitors who are creating such a pricing pressure?
I think this is a detailed kind of market research kind of answer. Please send us a mail, and we will answer that separately. The main point, as you can see, is that our sales have already increased. We are able to maintain our sales as per our targets. I'll be happy to announce also that we have entered into some pricing formulas with some of the key OEs, after which we will be now safe from the pricing pressure because of any other large companies' desire to undercut prices.
Okay, I was asking because until the new plant is going to get commissioned, we can expect about 5% - 10% volume growth. Given the price correction that is happening, what kind of volume growth are you expecting?
We have already announced that our target before the new plant is getting commissioned, our attempt will be to reach 260,000 - 270,000 tons of sales. From last year's 215,000 tons, yes. From 215,000, we'll go up to 265,000 - 270,000 in the next four years.
Sir, that's on the volume side, but considering the pricing scenario, any highlights on how these?
Pricing scenario depends on raw material prices. Pricing scenario depends on raw material prices. If raw material prices fall further, then prices will also fall. If raw material prices rise, then prices will rise. That is why we talk about volume. We do not make predictions on sales. We talk of EBITDA per ton. There are three, four factors which will increase the EBITDA per ton from next year. One is our solar plant, which should have kicked in by June, but we've started getting the benefit partly in the second quarter and then second half, and full performance of that next year. That is one factor. The second factor will be with the new reheating furnace getting commissioned, the material we send for job work outside will all be done in-house. Not all, pardon me, largely done in-house, and therefore, a large part of that cost will get saved.
The third part is with the new reheating furnace, our billet sizes are going to increase, and hence, the yields are going to improve. The fourth benefit is, as volumes increase, there are other hidden costs, which include power cost reduction, yield improvement, other things happen with increased volume. There is a benefit of the Kocks Block coming in because Kocks Block still, till we get the final approval from customers, the full benefit of the Kocks Block is going to come in only in the next year. Those are the four factors which will lead to better margins coming up from next year. As you all would recall, our new reheating furnace was originally expected to come up by June, but because of delay in the equipment supply and other factors, this is going to be delayed by about six months.
or is there still some part of it which will come in the next quarter as well?
Anil, can you come back in the queue, please, and ask?
Yes, thank you.
Thank you so much.
Yes, thank you.
Thank you.
Before we take the next question, we would like to remind participants that you may press star one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Ritvik Sheth from One Up Financial Consultants Pvt. Ltd. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon, sir. Just following from the previous question, should we partly assume that the pricing pressure is behind because you mentioned that we have taken a pricing formula with certain OEMs, and we do not expect further price cut? This pricing pressure should be the worst in Q1, and things would abate going forward. Would that be a reasonable assumption?
Let me put it this way. It will not get worse than this.
Okay. Sure.
Will it get better? When will it get better? Very difficult to say at this point in time. A couple of factors which are, I would say, tailwinds in our favor. One is this area of Green steel, sustainability, carbon footprint. More and more customers are talking about it. We feel in the next year or two, this could start translating into even more business coming our way, which means as you get to choose a better product mix, a customer mix, and therefore, the possibility of margins improving on that front. The second thing is this concept of circular economy, which is that scrap coming in from the OE comes to the steel company. Steel made by us goes to tier ones or tier twos of the auto companies.
With this concept, which is getting gradually more and again, more and more people talking about this, and one OE has started moving on a concrete plan, which somewhere in the next six months, they want to test this concept and then increase this concept. What this will give us is sustained business, protection of business, and hence protection of margins also as we go along. This is something which we've been banking on. With this, we are the company best by far, the best suited amongst the auto-approved companies. Though there is one company, Saarloha Steel of Kalyani Group, which is a private company, which is ahead of us in this journey of green, we would be the second best placed company in the country, and by far at this point in time. Sure.
None of our competitors come anywhere near us in this area of green and carbon footprint. The day this becomes law, as the government intends to do, we will stand to have a major advantage, and there will be a major pressure on us to supply more quantities, and therefore, the possibility for us to drop the less profitable products and improve our margin mix.
Sure. Sir, any sense what could be the Greenfield steel EBITDA per ton margin versus current, what we are selling right now is INR 7,000 to INR 10,000? What could?
No, no. We are anyway selling Green steel. For us, that is Green steel. The question only is once there is a pull in the market, there are products that can be dropped from the current product mix. We feel easily INR 1,000 - INR 2,000. We don't know where, but INR 1,000 - INR 2,000 increase in EBITDA per ton is a possibility. Whether we'll get there or not, I don't know. It will happen in two years' time, one year's time, three years' time, all difficult to predict. This is the tailwind. The point is if the change happens, it's in our favor. We have not taken this into our forecast anywhere.
Got it. Sir, one more question on the forging CapEx. It will be in the new plant that we are acquiring?
We are trying to see if we can put it in the existing plant, but all that in the next six months, please.
Okay.
Forging, we don't have more information at this point in time, but this is under discussion. We are examining if at least one line of forging, the first line, the pilot plant, can come up in the existing plant.
Okay. Sir, just one more question. You mentioned that.
Please, can you come back in the queue?
Sure.
Can you come back in the queue, please?
Sure, sure.
Okay.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all participants in the conference, please limit your questions to two per participant. The next question is from the line of Ridhraksh Gupta from Navneet Investment Trust. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. This is Ridhraksh Gupta from Navneet Investment Trust. I have a question related to forging segment. Since you are suggesting forging is a very large opportunity, and Aichi i s the largest firm in the world in specialty steel forging, are any of the forging capabilities available in India, and what are the limitations that are restricted investment in this space?
As per our partners, for the products that are thinking of getting into India, there is no competition. The second question for you is what took them so much time? They have been studying the forging market in India and planning to enter from before the steel plant because they saw the opportunity in forging much earlier. Getting the right partner has been difficult, and therefore, they could not enter. Once with Vardhman, we started in steel, and after six years of working together, the confidence that they have developed in us as partners has prompted them that now is the time. Since it's been on their agenda for the last 15 years, that's why they hurry to now once they've decided after their stake has gone up.
I would say finding the right partner, which in this case is Vardhman, the confidence of six years of working together, with the equity infusion, and since the last one year, they were not sure about our desire for forging. Once we started telling them also that we are also keen for forging, all those factors combined together, and finally, in this board meeting, it was decided that yes, we will now go ahead.
Okay, sir. What is the kind of profitability that the Japanese and Aichi make in this business, and what are the profitability that you are expecting?
No, as I said, we have no information as of now. This is just a strategic decision. In the next six months, all this will be finalized. A lot of discussions have to happen, a lot of information will be exchanged and decisions taken. About roughly six months will take for all this thing, and we will be able to share that maybe in six months' time.
Okay, that's all my explanation. I'll get back in the queue.
Thank you. Thank you so much.
The next question is from the line of Vaibhav Gupta from Orient Research. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, and very good afternoon. I wanted to understand on the demand side, sir. The demand which we are getting, is this demand sustainable in the coming quarters as well, sir?
For steel, yes, I don't see much of a problem in meeting this demand.
Okay. Second, I have a doubt.
Yes, sir.
Sorry?
Our target for this year is 225,000 tons. It is our budget for this year. As of now, we feel we will be able to meet this target.
Okay. Secondly, what is the update on our export side, sir? How is that side performing?
That side, as we said earlier, because of pressure in Thailand, which is our main market, the exports are not taking place to the extent we had envisaged together. Therefore, the pressure that the steel uptake that Aichi h ad forecasted for exports, they may substitute that with the uptake in the consumption of steel in the forging business, which would be focused on the domestic market. Clearly, it's a new consumption which Aichi w ill support.
Okay. Thank you, sir. I will get both of you in the queue.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Natasha Gupta, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, my question is that currently, you are running at close to full capacity. How do you plan to grow over the next two to three years? Are there any expansion plans in the pipeline?
No. So, capacity for us has three elements. One is melting, which is billet steel making and billet making. We have tested a capacity of 25,000 tons in one month, which would translate to 300,000 tons of billet making if this was equally spread out. I would say 280,000 to 285,000 tons is the billet making capacity as of now. We have the capacity there. The constraint is in the rolling. Now, rolling also has two parts. The constraint was one constraint was eliminated by the Kocks Block. The second constraint is with the reheating furnace. The reheating furnace is going to get commissioned in the last quarter of this year. After that, the capacity of the rolling mill will also be about 270,000 tons of output. After that, there'll be no constraint as far as production is concerned.
The constraint then will move to the NDT because for the high-quality products, NDT may become a constraint, but the second NDT line has already been approved, already ordered, and under construction. That should get commissioned by June, July next year. We have capacity to move up to then. Really speaking from the next financial year, which is 2026, 2027, right from the beginning, our capacity will be around 265,000 tons of rolled product. We have the capacity.
Okay, sir. Sir, can you cap it?
Yes.
Thank you. Sir, any CapEx plans you have for the year?
No, the next two to three years is already announced. No, this is the reheating furnace, the NDT line, the fuel extraction system, some Kocks Block is already done, and some R&D equipment. These are the CapEx which is already announced and already undergoing. There'll be some more investments that will happen for improving quality further. This is already announced and ongoing. The new CapEx announced is INR 2,000 crore for the new steel plant. There'll be a third CapEx announcement, which is as and when the forging plant gets finalized, there will be a CapEx announcement for the forging line. If it comes up in the existing plant, if it comes up in the existing plant as we are trying, there'll be no additional CapEx for that. If one of the proposals that we have in mind, then even the existing buildings may work.
We may not even have a building major CapEx except for some minor alterations and some changes. Those are things all we are examining: which proposal works, which line, the layout, all those things are being discussed. We are hopeful, and our full attempt will be that it can come up in the existing land. As you recall, we had bought five acres of land last year. We have some additional land which will be used either for this or shifting something from here to the new site to get the forging here. All those things are being finalized in the next six months.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you.
Before we take the next question, we would like to remind participants that you may press star one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Sarvesh Shah, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Just one question on this new corporation that you have done. I just wanted to understand, is there any significant revenue contribution we can expect down the line over the next two years from this corporation or collaboration?
As far as the steel plant is concerned, there is no new steel collaboration. As far as the forging is concerned, the forging plant, as I said, will come up by 2029. Any revenue from the forging will happen only after that. This is just to start. We will formulate specific plans, but I visualize this business going up to 60,000 - 100,000 tons a year of forging capacity in the next 10 years. We will see continuous growth once this business starts, provided the first line is successful and we stabilize and learn this business and are able to do a good job. The interesting part about forging is incremental capital required for growth is not as much as for steel. You do not need large CapEx to start this business.
If it is a modular business, you can put in one line, a second line, and a third line, and keep on adding lines rather than a new steel plant where one line itself is going to cost us INR 2,000 crore. It is going to be more capital efficient, and we hope to be closer to the final customer. We will hope to improve our return on capital employed as we go ahead. These are all hopes. At this point in time, I do not have concrete numbers to back this up at this point in time. This is just a directional statement that we are making that strategically we are entering the forging business. We will start with one line. What we have gathered together, we have studied the product that is being thought of. There is sufficient demand in the country.
As you talk to a few customers, they are eagerly waiting for this product to start in the country. Selling this product in India to our existing customers is unlikely to be a problem.
Okay. Okay, sir. That's helpful. Sir, second question, more on the industry side. Are there any initiatives taken by the government for the Green steel?
Yes, the government has already announced the norms for Green steel. They have said a carbon footprint of below 2.2 is Green steel. They have taken a rating: star rating. Five-star rating is below 1.6, and we are at 0.73. We are significantly better than the government norms for five-star rating. After our solar plant comes up, we'll be at around 0.45 - 0.48. We'll be way, way better. Our major competitors, all of them, will be in the range of 3 - 3.2. Our competitors will be between 3 - 3.2. Government norm is 2.2 is Green steel, and we'll be at 0.5 - 0.48. The government is contemplating a carbon trading mechanism also to come up. It's clearly the government's intent to give some benefit to the companies which are at a lower carbon footprint.
There is going to be an announcement from the government that there will be a preference for Green steel in government procurement. As far as government procurement is concerned, for us, the main interest would be railways, especially from the new plant, but some from the existing plant. Once the government puts a preference in government procurement, at some stage, it will ask the major OEs also to come in because the government already has a target to reduce carbon footprint. They have made global commitments, and their target is to bring down the carbon footprint of steel industry to below 2 by 2030. Very clearly, people like us with much lower carbon footprints, some advantages will flow our way. What specific advantage will come, when it will come, is very difficult to predict, but this will happen in the next five years.
Again, I'm repeating, for us, the main thing to see is the trend is in our favor. Whenever the change happens, it's going to benefit us and has not been taken into account in any of our forecasts.
That's helpful, sir. Sir, one more question under update one.
Yes, that's when it comes.
Oh, okay, sir.
Sorry.
Just wanted to know the updates on the solar plant which we are expected to install. Any update on that?
Yeah. We said it was supposed to have got commissioned in June. The solar plant is ready. It is ready. They have got all the approvals. It's just the line laying, just a few transmission lines. There's a problem. Some people have gone to court, some farmers, which should get vacated in the next month of August. Hopefully, in the month of August, we should have this plant running.
Thank you. Thank you, sir, for the opportunity.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Radha from B&K Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Ajay. Sir, I wanted to understand for the incoming project CapEx that you have announced, how does it break up? What is the breakup of equity and debt? In equity, what is the breakup of equity funding plans? I'm asking this because after the Aichi stake infusion, the promoter stake has come down to 51%. What is the minimum promoter stake you want to have in the next two to four years?
Yeah. The project that we are planning as of now is going to be roughly 1:1 Debt-to-Equity, which will mean INR 1,000 crore of new equity being raised. With INR 1,000 crore net worth, which will be the situation of the existing plant by then, this will mean INR 2,000 crore net worth and INR 1,000 crore debt, which is a 0.5 Debt-to-Equity, which is what we are targeting. Promoters are not hell-bent on any particular equity number. As of now, we intend to remain above 50%. At some stage, if Aichi w ants to increase their stake beyond this 24.9% in the next 5 or 10 years, whenever they decide, that is something that we have already committed. As Vardhman Group, we will support the increase of their share in the company. As of now, we have no desire to go beyond 51%.
If Aichi d ecides to increase their stake, we will facilitate their increase in stake. There could be a possibility of a QIP coming in, but that is something that we will examine when we need the funds. As of now, the major need of funds we envisage is going to be in 2028.
Okay. Out of INR 1,000 crore equity, INR 385 crore we have already got. The balance, about INR 600 crore, the QIP will be to that amount, or?
There will be, see, all those things will be decided. Aichi intends to retain their stake at 24.9%. Whatever is the further equity that is raised, either from promoters or from QIP or both, Aichi will make sure that they retain 24.9%. They will also put in more equity.
Understood. Okay, sir. For any new project.
Ms. Radha, can you return to the question queue for the follow-up question?
Yeah, yeah. Please do. Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Saket from Kapoor & Co. Please go ahead.
No, sir, and thank you for the opportunity. Sir, firstly, on the forging line, which we are alluding to in the earlier conversation, sir, what kind of capacity and to which sector will you be capping to, sir? If you could just give a PR comparison on whom we will be directly competing?
This line is going to be purely for automotive business, and the capacity is going to be about 12,000 - 15,000 tons per year, the first line. As we said, there is no real direct competitor because they have a far superior process and a far superior product than the products being used in the country. Final customers will be customers like Sona Comstar, Aisin, and other such customers. We are talking to several customers who are all existing customers of VSS because we are also very careful. We do not want to compete with any existing customer. We want to be supportive to our customers' needs and give them a product which enhances their capabilities rather than competing with any of our customers.
The first line, as you mentioned, about 12,000 - 15,000 per ton, what kind of investment and what are the effects on our?
As I said earlier, all these things will be finalized in the next six months. As of now, we have taken a strategic decision to start.
Yeah.
Yeah. As of now, we have taken a decision that strategically we're entering this area with the idea of specialized forgings, which will not compete with our existing customers, which will support our existing customers. There will be no competition in India for the product that we are contemplating. We will start with 12,000 - 15,000 tons, first line, and we are trying to see if it will come up in the existing plant facility itself. The details will all be finalized in the next six months, and the moment they are finalized, it'll be shared with all of you.
Sir, on the volume front, you mentioned we have budgeted for this financial year for 225,000. Is that understanding correct?
Yes, that is correct.
We did around 55,754 tons for the first quarter. Analyzing it, there will be almost a similar kind of volume for the remaining part of the year. That is what should be the linear trend, barring here and there, but some percentage one.
Business doesn't follow a linear trend, so yeah, you're right.
Sir, I did not get it. Come again. There is.
I said the auto demand does not follow a linear trend in the year. Second quarter is normally the highest sales. Second quarter will be higher. Third quarter will be a little lower. Fourth quarter is the lowest.
Okay, I was coming to the customer feedback on details, which, yeah, please. Hello.
This is typical, but sometimes this changes. These things vary, depend. We are an intermediate supplier, so our sales are dependent on auto sales.
Correct, sir. My second question, my question follow-up is on that front only. What are the current fillers from our major customers taking into account the deem export from the customer side to the other nations where tariff is the axe overhanging? How are things lined up in terms of our customers' commitment to exports? What are the feedbacks currently that we are getting from them?
Mixed feedback. Some customers feel that business is going on, and some customers are in a very strong position. They are able to, their customers are going to pay the differentials. Those are discussions. We don't go into too much detail with our customers, how their business is faring because please understand, if they start saying, "Oh, we are under a lot of tariff pressure, etc.," please reduce prices. Please understand why we don't want to get in those discussions.
Correct, sir. Lastly, sir, on the EBITDA per ton guideline, I think last year you alluded to the INR 7,000-INR 8,000, correct me there also, and that will be moving up to INR 8,000-INR 10,000. For this financial year, what should be the EBITDA per ton ballpark number which we should be putting in?
As I said, INR 7,000-INR 10,000 has been a range that we've been speaking for for some time, and we are within that range. We also said that the range should move up to INR 8,000 -INR 11,000. The factors that would have led to the range going up have, partly because of the pricing pressure that came in, delayed it by one year. Plus, as I said, the solar plant was one factor which had led to the margins going up, as well as the new reheating furnace. I would say this year will remain in this range of INR 7,000 -INR 10,000. It's next year that we hope we will hope to raise the range from INR 8,000 -INR 11,000.
Okay, sir. Thank you, sir. I'm joining the queue for my follow-up. Thank you.
Thank you. Before we take the next question, we would like to remind participants that you may press *1 to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Sanaya Jain, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Just a few questions. What is the revenue breakup of rolling mills and dry bus? Also, what is the margin difference in both types of products?
We don't share the revenue breakup in terms of sales, but roughly 75% is black bar. All process goes through the rolling mill. Bright bar is a further value addition to the black bar. Our bright bar capacity is about 50,000 tons a year. Roughly 25% is bright bar and 75% is sold as black bar, roughly. It changes because those are all dependent on specific customers, which customers, because some customers buy primarily bright bar or largely bright bar. If their business gets affected slightly, the swings are bigger in bright bar business.
Sure, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Saket from Kapoor & Co. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Thank you again, sir. Firstly, sir, for the Aichi strategy for us, as you mentioned that going ahead, would be more inclined to keep their stake at 25% even when the further, if and when the further fundraising exercise happens through the equity route. What is the sacrosanct of this 25% number from the Aichi?
That's a question to ask Aichi.
Okay, sir. I can answer on their behalf. Since you have laid down the commitment from their side, I thought they have given the feedback also.
No, no. Very clearly, they intend to have a higher stake than even this in the future because for them, India is a strategic market and a very important market for the future because for the Indian market itself and as an export hub to export to Europe in the future, Africa in the future, and be a support to Japan because as Japanese population ages over time, over the next 20, they think 40, 50 years in the future. As Japan's population shrinks, as it ages, demand in Japan will go down. Their ability to keep producing steel competitively in Japan may go down. All those things are much longer-term plays to happen. To de-risk Toyota's business, please understand this is Toyota's strategy. It is imperative to have a very strong second plant out here.
If it is important for Toyota's strategic plan, then Aichi logically, as a world leader, would like to have a clearly larger stake in this business. First, they started with 11.3%, which was a bare minimum just to test the waters. After they've tested us as a partner, tested India as a market, and seen that the partnership is going well, the next stage is to go up to the maximum possible before triggering an open offer. Therefore, 25% is that limit. 24.9% is where they are, and they will stick at that level. At the right time, and they think there's a right time for them, I believe that at some stage, they will, at some stage, could be five years from now, could be 10 years from now. I don't know, but they will at some stage increase their stake.
Vardhman Group has already indicated if they want to increase their stake, then we will support. That is their easy friendship that we have with them and partnership with them that we are as if it's Aichi, India, and they are as if they are Vardhman, Japan.
Correct, sir. Sir, when we look at your presentation wherein we have this strategic alliance with them, as of now, sir, correct me here, as of now, are we in the only product development phase, or what % of our sales are directed towards the Toyota base through this collaboration with Aichi ?
Toyota still remains a smaller customer. Please understand, Maruti is a far more important customer as far as Aichi is concerned. There are other Japanese customers, for example, Yamaha, Kubota, and Isuzu. There are other Japanese customers also which are on the target of Aichi. They have far more specialized products. They have some patented products also, which all those products will step by step as our manufacturing capabilities increase. All those products will eventually come into India through us. It's a step-by-step process. Please understand, Japanese don't work very fast. They are cautious, stable, and they look at consolidation at each stage before going to the next level.
Right. One question for our CFO, sir. The tax expense shown here is around INR 6 crore INR 20 lakh. If it's feasible for you, can you share the advance tax number for the June quarter? How much cash have we paid as advance tax?
I think we do not share these advance tax figures, but you can calculate at your end. We fall within the bracket of that 25% corporate tax.
Okay. That is paid on what we are anticipating for the entire year, 15% of that. That was my reason for asking for this.
That's correct. Yes, your recalculation.
As per the estimates for this year.
Yes.
Okay. Thank you, sir, and all the best.
Thank you.
As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you so much for your patience. I can see very clearly a lot of questions on forging. Apologies that we don't have enough information at this point in time. As soon as we have information, within the next six months, we'll have far more information after the talks are concluded with our partners. We'll be happy to share all that information with you. We are excited that your excitement on the forging line gives us confidence that strategically, we're on the right track. Thank you so much, and we look forward to seeing you in the next call.
Thank you.
On behalf of IIFL Capital Services Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect the line.