Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Q4 and FY 2026 conference call hosted by Vardhman Special Steels Limited. This conference call may contain forward-looking statements about the company which are based on the beliefs, opinions, and expectations of the company as on date of this call. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Sachit Jain, Chairman and Managing Director, Vardhman Special Steels Limited. Thank you. Over to you, sir.
Ladies and gentlemen, very good morning to all of you. It's my first annual investor call after taking over as Chairman of the company also. I am addressing all of you as we close a record year. Record profits, INR 122 crores. Volume has been the highest, 225,000 tons, which was our budget. Also, we are poised for better times ahead. As in the last year, interesting things have happened. One, of course, in the last quarter with the Iran-Iraq war, Iran-US wars, raw material has shot up in prices as well as gas disruption was a concern. Luckily, for us, there was no disruption of gas, though the cost of the gas has gone up substantially.
I must say, the government has handled the overall situation pretty well that, whatever disruption in LPG which was there for us and for some other people, some other commodities where disruptions were there, but they have not caused major chaos. As far as our CapEx, reheating furnace was commissioned in March. It will improve our rolling capacity to 270,000 tons of finished product. I hope as we close to 270,000 tons, we might find ways to tweak it further to increase it a bit further. New NDT line is in progress. New peeling line is in progress. We are trying to see if we can increase our overall melting production beyond 300,000 tons to maybe 360,000 tons. Our team has come out with a plan to do that.
We will soon be applying for environmental approval, which is not sure that we'll get, but if we get that environmental approval, we'll increase the production in this plant. The solar plant was commissioned also in this quarter. We will be getting 9 crore units of power per year. A new section of 210 by 210 has also been introduced. What does this new section mean? With this new section, our productivity of our concast goes up, which was a bottleneck, and which is why we are more confident of increasing production. Second, it improves the quality of our products, so our rework will come down. First rejection of some of the critical parts, especially the bigger dia products, will come down, which will improve throughput as well as reduce some cost.
Also, we have increased the heat size from 37 tons to 40 tons. These will also help in improving productivity as well as reduce costs during the line. Overall, I think we are on track. In the next two years, I think we are getting more and more confident that we'll be raising the guidance further. This year, our guidance is now up from last year, which is INR 8,000-INR 11,000 a ton, EBITDA. From two years from now, I think we are confident now that this range can be increased further to INR 9,000-INR 12,000. We are seeing better times ahead as we move ahead. A couple of other interesting things. I think our new steel plant planning is going on full swing.
We seem to be on track that we will start our plant on in July 2029 as of now. Our forging plant also, a lot of equipment has been ordered, so we seem to be in track in commissioning the plant in end third quarter of next year. Jan-March of 2028, we hope to start the production from the forging line. We will also very soon start planning further expansion of the forging line, as well as strategically now we are looking at a newer direction. With the new steel plant, we will have a capacity of 500,000 tons-600,000 tons. I think we have announced 500,000 tons, gradually looking after talking to manufacturers, we are able to see maybe we'll be able to reach 600,000 tons.
With 600,000 tons there and 300,000 tons here, we will have almost 900,000 tons of steel. This is the time for us to start diversifying our special steels portfolio into non-automotive steels also. We have taken a strategic view that over the next 10 years, we will be about 30% non-automotive steel, 70% will be automotive steel. Non-automotive steel has several categories, and we will do a deep dive into them as we go along in this year and next year. There is railways, there is oil and gas, there is bearings, there is windmill shafts, ship shafts, and so on.
Then there is also a newer area which is more sophisticated, of advanced alloys and advanced materials, where we will start looking at aerospace, defense, very special steels for nuclear, dies, die steel. Those are other areas which go into the more super specialized range. These are all the next three to five years you will see more planning and more thrust in that area. We are going to soon doing internal organization structure. We'll be moving into divisions. We'll be having a forging division where some of the senior Japanese people is going to from Aichi will come in here. He will be posted here. The president of the forging division would be a Japanese gentleman from Aichi. We will have a...
We are now looking for a president of the automotive steel division, and then we will create a separate non-automotive steel division. All this in the next 3-5 years, and which will again enable the company to grow further, look for further alliances and joint venture partners into more specialized areas. I think, more and more of my time is now going to go into developing these strategies, these relationships, and making the company stronger and serving what the country needs today. We, to just give an example, tool and die steels, there's about INR 1,000 crores which gets imported into the country every year. As we talk to. The customers are the same. Most of the die steel customer, all are our forging companies who are our customers.
Each one that we talk to says there's a big headache importing these steels from Europe or from Japan or from Korea. There is a big opportunity in those areas also. We have not decided on any one, but I just think these are the areas of opportunities opening up for us as this plant is becoming saturated. At the beginning, we are going to start with ingot casting in this plant. We'll start in a small way, and then we will be increasing our ingot casting. Now with ingot casting is a different method of steel making. Melting is the same, it's just the casting. We have continuous casting, which really is mass market because of the automotive space. Ingot casting will be higher alloys and limited volume that we'll be moving into.
The specialized products will require this ingot casting. They're really much bigger diameter products, which maybe you may just forge it and it may be sold straight to forging companies rather than the whole process of rolling after that. I'm just sharing broad outline with you today that we have reached a stage where we can think of all these newer areas. We are very clear we will remain only in the area of special steels and automotive forgings. More and more we want to see our vision now is to see ourselves as a supermarket of special steels. This is a new term that we have started thinking about it in the last couple of months.
I think today, in today's annual call is the first time I'm announcing this to our shareholder community that we are very clear, we will remain only in the areas of special steels. Of course, once we get into specialized alloys for defense and aerospace, then adjacencies come up where you can move into gradually in a slow process over the next five to 10 years, move into other alloys also. That all will be the job of the next generation of management after me. We will lay the foundation, strong company, which can then grow into separate adjacencies with separate JV partners as we go along.
Overall, seeing the confidence in the future, your Board decided to recommend a dividend of INR 3.5 the share. Frankly, I was, I had gone into the meeting with the mind of INR 3 the share. Seeing the results and seeing our plans and discussions, the Board decided no, that these kind of plans and the confidence the entire Board has in the management and the company, then we all decided that INR 3.5 per share. One more thing. Last year, the important part was Aichi increased their shareholding to 24.9%, which is a statement of tremendous confidence from their side also. They are, they're very happy with the partnership and they want to see a bigger play in India as we go along. Thank you.
This has been my longest opening comments so far. Singla is.
I think figures cover.
The figures are already uploaded. We can open this to Q&A now.
Thank you so much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question comes from the line of Saket Kapoor from Kapoor & Company. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Yes, Saket, please go ahead.
Yeah. Namaskar, Jain Saab, thank you for the opening remark. Elaborating your plans ahead. Sir, now what should we look forward in terms of our ramp up in volume of rolled product? I think so with the commissioning and the annealing of the new line with, I think so we close this year sub, at sub 230 levels. What kind of-
225,000 tons.
Year 2025 going forward, yes.
225,000 tons we closed this year, last year. At this we expect about to cross 250,000 tons, so maybe 255,000 tons we will target. Let's say for your calculations, keep 250,000 tons in mind.
250,000 tons is the available number for of the rolled products.
Yes, the thousands, yeah.
Sir, your line is muffled.
I'm so sorry, sir. Hello.
250,000 tons for this year, you should please keep that figure in mind. We will try to target to sell a bit more. We will see as we go along.
Okay, sir, then you have also spoken about our KOCKS block, commencement and then the efficiency, and all kicking in. Post-factoring that also we will keep our EBITDA, per ton, trajectory in that vicinity of, INR 8,500-INR 11,000 only?
No. Our range earlier was INR 7,000- INR10,000. We have now from this year we are increasing the range to INR 8,000-INR 11,000. We said two years later we would like to increase the range to INR 9,000- INR 12,000.
Okay. Two small points.
We are trending upwards. That's what we are seeing that we are gradually going to be trending upwards.
Okay. Sir, this year we did average of INR 8,500+. Even with all the vagaries of the market.
Saket, can you come back in the queue? There'll be other people. I'll address your question later, this one.
I'll do that, sir. Your line is still muffled. If that could be corrected.
Oh, I'm so sorry. Am I more audible now?
Yes, sir. You are audible now. Thank you so much.
Okay. Okay. Sorry. My apologies for that.
No problem, sir. All right. We'll take the next question, comes from the line of Sana, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir, and thank you for the opportunity.
Yeah, Sana.
My first question.
Please go ahead.
Sir, what is our current capacity usage, and how much can we see improvement in the next year?
Our current capacity we sold full because our rolling mill capacity was close to 180,000 tons. We have done a lot of outsourced rolling and therefore we managed to sell 225,000 tons. In the year 2026, 2027, our rolling capacity is 270,000 tons. We hope to sell about 250,000 tons. Hope is 255,000, but for your calculations, keep 250,000 tons.
250,000 tons. Okay, sir. Sir, one more question I have. Are we expecting any changes in our product mix going forward?
Not this year. This year we will see the beginning, just the tiny beginning, tiny shoots. As I said, we will start ingot casting in a small way. That's the change there we'll see, and we'll just be selling ingot products. Gradually, as we learn and as we improve on this, we'll be improving the product mix. From next year you will see small changes, but really the impact that you will see will not be enough. Impact will take about five years for the outside world to see the impact. By then, the volume of the new plant would have come in. Again, you will not see an impact in terms of proportions.
Okay, sir. All right.
For the foreseeable future, please assume similar product mix of automotive steels.
Okay. We can consider it a similar one for the next five years, and after five years we can see a good number.
You'll start seeing changing. Yes.
All right.
There will be again, initially, when the new plant commissions, there'll be a small dip in the kind of products we are making because we'll be ramping up volume in the new plant, and therefore we will be shifting to some commodity products to build up volume. The product mix will be a bit changed and then again. It will remain similar, then deteriorate a bit, and then again start improving from five years from now. Seven years from now, you should start seeing a change. I know it's a little longer perspective than most investors on this call, but to see changes in the stuff that I was talking about, the futuristic businesses, it will take five to seven years, we start making some impact. For a change from investors to see, maybe seven years onwards.
Okay, sir. Thank you so much and all the very best.
Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. Our next question comes from the line of Nishita from Crown Capital. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hello, good morning. I just had a clarification question on the previous participant's question. I just wanted to understand, when you mentioned that the new capacity that will commission is, are you referring to the 500,000 ton capacity of billet production?
Yes. Correct.
Oh, okay. I just wanted to understand, when are we expecting that to commission?
We are expecting that to commission by July 2029.
Okay. Okay, okay. What is the growth trajectory that we can see going forward?
I'm sorry, can you speak a little louder? I couldn't hear that.
Yes. What is the growth trajectory that we see going forward, like with the Aichi increasing their stake and now with all the CapEx that we are doing? If you can give us a growth target, that would be very helpful.
The first target is to reach the full 270,000 tons-280,000 tons or that we can make in this plant because our license is 300,000 tons of steel making. If we get a government license to increase the capacity, which is a 50/50 chance we get it, then there is a scope to grow further. But as of now, please target, keep in mind 270,000 tons for the next three years. Then after that there'll be a sudden jump when the new plant commissions.
Okay. Like for this license, have you already applied for the license? Like by when can we expect to get some results on this?
We will be applying in two months time. We have some pending environmental work to be done before that, which will be done maybe in May itself. June we will apply, and we should know before March of next year.
Okay, got it. Got it. Thank you so much. All the best.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shlok Bharti from Swan Investments.
Sorry. Sorry, may I just say one more comment? That normally if a 20% increase in capacity is applied for, you don't need a public hearing. Environmental approval, normally people say, what I hear from consultants and other people is normally not that difficult to get. We are reasonably confident that we will get it. Why I'm still saying 50/50 is because Ludhiana still is in the critically polluted zone. Separately from our CSR activity, I'm talking to think tanks try to see how to work on getting Ludhiana out of the critically polluted zone. That's a separate topic, but that's just by the side, as an aside.
Shlok Bharti , sir.
Yeah.
Thank you so much for your remark. Our next question come from the line of Shlok Bharti from Swan Investments. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir, and thank you. A couple of questions.
Yeah, Shlok, go ahead.
First thing, on the commissioning of the solar power, which you indicate that we'll be generating almost INR 9 crores of unit in FY 2028, and with the installation of reheating furnace, what sorts of savings one can see in FY 2028?
We have not shared those figures, but by the very fact that we are saying our EBITDA range, which has been stuck at INR 7,000- INR 10,000 for some time, will go up to INR 8,000-INR 11,000 this year, and then, two years from now, INR 9,000- INR 12,000. Maybe next year itself we will feel more confident.
Mm-hmm
... if the oil prices, correct. See, we are also facing a possible recession in the economy, global economy.
Mm-hmm.
A lot depends on what you see trends. We are now, for again, for the first time, we are saying that two years from now, we will, we should be getting INR 9,000- INR 12,000.
Understood, sir.
Earlier, these figures were just aspirational figures.
Mm-hmm.
We are saying that we are now quite confident that we should be able to up the range. Yes, those cost savings, volume increase, all those things are being taken into account.
From INR 8,000- INR 11,000 to INR 9000-INR 12,000, right now it's more looks like a reality rather than aspiration. Is it going to come with the more of a cost efficiency or it will be driven by the change in the product mix?
As I answered in the earlier question, the product mix I don't see much of a change just now.
Mm-hmm.
It is volume, cost cutting, process improvement. Even this year, though we have had record profits, there are areas we saw that we could have improved further.
Mm-hmm.
There is clearly, you see, the beauty, like, some of you may read my annual know that I am a trekker. When I go trekking and you cross a mountain which seems at a height, as you cross, reach that top, then you suddenly see newer vistas which were not visible earlier.
True.
You keep. As you improve to reach a particular level, you find newer areas which you didn't see earlier. You say, you kick yourself and say, "Why, how come we didn't see it earlier?" I have a famous saying for the last 30 years. When we see, I don't ask people a question why they didn't see it. Why didn't you think of it earlier? If you think of it today, great. Implement it now.
Right. Agreed. Agreed. Agreed. One question on your forging plant now, which is expected to commission on third quarter of FY 2028. What sorts of CapEx have been spent and how much it is left? Secondly, what sorts of ROCE one can assume only on the forging unit?
As of now, not much has been spent. We have, of course, bought the land. Some initial LCs have started getting open. Really not much has been spent on that. Maybe about INR 50 crores. INR 80 crore have been spent.
How much you will be spending in the nine months?
The total project cost was.
INR 475 crores
INR 475 crores, plus our annealing line is also in that same premise. Overall, the budgeted investment is more than INR 500 crores. The entity part was already part of the earlier approved Vardhman VSS steel expansion of INR 350 crores. Let's not double count that. For the forging project, INR 475 crores was the budgeted expenditure. The way we are going ahead, it looks like we may not be spending that much. We'll be spending less than that. We'll have a better estimate in six months' time of what will be the actual expenditure. Looks like we'll be clearly less than INR 475 crores, which we had budgeted.
The plant is expected to commission on third quarter of FY 2028.
Let's say will be commissioned. Fourth quarter, finally we'll start seeing some performance. Really 2028-2029 is the first year of performance that you will get, realistically.
In terms of the payback or the IRR, I mean, is there any estimate that one can-?
Those things we don't disclose, we don't disclose project by project. One line, as you can make out, will not be sufficient. We will soon be adding a second line and a third line. We have plans to add at least three lines of forging. That's when it'll be completed. We'll see by when we complete this entire this this forging project. The first line will start operations in the fourth quarter of 2027-2028.
Incremental CapEx for the new line, assuming the same capacity will be?
Will be lower. Will be clearly lower.
It will be at the same capacity, right? Which you are saying part 1, phase 1.
Those things we will evolve as we go along. We are entering a new business, those things will take shape as we go along.
No, that's quite helpful, Mr. Jain. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ritwik Seth from OneUp Financial Consultants. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, sir. Sir, congratulations on a great set of numbers. I have few questions also. Firstly, has the land acquisition been completed for the new greenfield plant?
We are the last stages. It should happen the next. Within May, we should be closing it.
Okay. Okay. My second question is related to the CapEx for FY 2027 and 2028, with the forging plant and also with the new greenfield plant, and potentially, expanding capacity of melt shop at the existing site. What can be the CapEx for FY 2027 and 2028?
Singla? 2027, 2028 CapEx. Huh?
FY 2027, FY 2028, for that steel plant and forging plant, we will be incurring maximum CapEx in that year.
Okay.
A ballpark figure. We don't have a calculation, but a ballpark figure will be more than INR 700 crores or INR 800 crores.
Okay. In the current year?
No. 2027, 2028 you are saying?
No.
In the current year.
Current year and next year, I'm asking.
Okay. In current year it will be very less expenditure, only on procurement of land and some development work.
Okay.
The major CapEx will happen in 2027, 2028 only.
We are also having replacement items as our old, peeling line needs replacement. We are adding to our testing line and so on.
Okay.
Roughly about INR 100 odd crores of normal CapEx at replacement and quality upgradation and so on. Those will be done in the next two years for normal work for this plant.
Okay. 100 tons this year and 700 tons-800 tons next year.
For the expansions and for the existing plant.
Right
About INR 100 crores more.
Okay
The environmental approval, then we will take, maybe another INR 80 Crores- INR 100 crores.
Okay. Got it.
Those are all figures are up in. These are very, very ballpark rough figures.
Sure
... once those things come up, and then we will take a clear decision, and then will be announced at that stage.
Sure. Got it. Sir, just one question on the brownfield expansion, the melting shop which we are planning to take from 300 KTPA- 360 KTPA. Once we get the approval from environment, from EC, what will be the timeline for this expansion to get completed?
If things work out well, our target will be. Again, these are very rough idea.
Mm-hmm
... delivery of some of these equipment is a long delivery. We would expect some time in later part of calendar year 2027.
Okay. Okay. EC you mentioned in six to nine months you can get the EC clearance.
Yeah. Yes. We are discussing with the suppliers how to shorten the time.
Mm-hmm.
Otherwise these equipment take a year and a half for delivery. We are talking to suppliers, and we have good relations, and we'll figure out how we can get it earlier.
Sure. Sure. Thank you, sir. I have few questions. I'll join back in the queue.
Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star then one on their touch-tone telephone. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Manav Gogia from YES Securities Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. A very good morning and thank you so much for the opportunity. Most of my questions are more or less answered. I just have a couple of follow-ups. First one being, you know, you just guided for the EBITDA per ton to be around INR 8,000-INR 11,000 and, you know, further going ahead towards INR 9,000-INR 12,000 on a per ton basis. My question comes, I mean, what sort of realization assumptions are we building out over here? Is it the current spot prices or the average for FY 2026?
No, no. We always look at, it's consistently true whatever you take. If you take the average of last year, even that is fine. You take the current, even that is fine. Because, in auto industry we don't just work as a commodity pricing. Pricing will change based on scrap going up. Our spreads are more or less protected. A little bit here and there it changes, which is why we keep a range in our EBITDA. Which is why the, when the commodity steels have gone up substantially, alloy steel prices will not rise up to that extent. And when commodity steel prices fall, then alloy steel prices don't fall that dramatically either. Which is why.
As I said in my earlier remarks, opening remarks, that the scrap prices have gone up, and therefore we are asking for a price increase from Q1, and we are likely to get those price increases in Q1. Those discussions are ongoing.
Got it. Got it. Basically, in a nutshell, it's, you know, much more cost driven growth that we are coming out with of apart.
Right
Along with some operating leverage also kicking in.
Which is why we always talk about spreads.
Mm-hmm
We don't talk of actual selling price. I mean, for example, the average selling price of steel was lower in the previous year in 2025, 2026, and 2024, 2025. Despite a higher volume, our sales are actually lower on a higher profit. EBITDA margin looks much better than normal. Net profit margin looks much better than normal. That's why I don't look at those figures. I always urge our investors, please look at EBITDA per ton and volumes.
Yes. No, that is quite helpful. For the greenfield plant, I mean, for the run rate that you have given for the CapEx over the course of the next couple of years. Just to, you know, fact check it again, we have sort of a INR 100 crores - INR 150 crores of maintenance CapEx and then incremental INR 400 crores, INR 500 crores of growth CapEx. Is that correct?
No. The figures are more. What we will do is I think these questions are coming up. We will have exact better calculations after next three months when we negotiate all the machines. We'll have a much better idea. Once we have that, we'll update our presentation and post it on the company website.
Sure, sure.
Shareholder CapEx report for the company. Yeah.
Sure. That would be quite helpful. Just one last question out over here. For the greenfield plant that we're targeting for July of 2029, what sort of ramp up period do we expect, you know, to reach the peak capacity utilizations over there?
Very difficult to say that today because you are talking of six, seven, eight years into the future. Who knows what the market is going to be there? Now if I can hazard a guess, and please take this as a very, very with a very, very, very big pinch of salt. Attempt will be within three years to reach full capacity. It could take five years. For, and for all our budgeting, we have taken five to six years to reach full capacity utilization.
Oh, got it. That is actually helpful.
Yes.
No, no worry on that.
Yeah. Again, we are not in commodity steels that you just put up a plant and then start producing and selling. The advantage in the new plant will be that our costs are going to be much lower than the existing plant and therefore some of the commodity within the alloy steel, the commodity end of the business, like tractors and trucks, which we normally stay out of. Because of lower cost of steelmaking in the new plant, we may be able to access those markets and therefore we will be, we will try to ramp up earlier.
Got it. Sure. Thank you so much. All the very best, sir.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Atul Joshi from Trivantage Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Am I audible?
A little louder, please.
Speak little loud.
Can you hear me now? Is it okay?
Go ahead. We can barely hear you, but we can.
Okay. My question was on the exports. If you look at our exports, it has remained in a single digit. Earlier when our guidance was to reach up to 20% of the export by the end of FY 2027. With the new capacity coming in, I would like to know how we are thinking about the exports going further. That's my question.
Yes, you are right that we had a guidance at that point in time. Exports are going to be a much lower proportion of our business. We are seeing exports in the form of components increasing from India. More and more our attention is towards serving OEs from component exports from India, including from our forging, new forging line. We'll be targeting through some more vendors in India, some global companies coming in, who will use our forged products and machine them and export them. We'll be looking at that possibility. We are talking to a couple of other global forging majors to expand capacity in India, that we will supply steel to them.
We are talking to some global OEs who are wanting to source big quantities from India. They will all be sourcing more and more of components from India. Europe, as you know, is having a much higher cost of operation because of the gas costs, energy cost being high, wage costs also becoming higher, unavailability of young people to work in the night shifts and in hardcore manufacturing. With an FTA which has been they've signed with EU, they are expecting much bigger imports of components from India. In CBAM, which is there for steel imports into Europe, we stand very well-placed in CBAM calculation. Within a year or two, I think even components are going to come under CBAM. Once components are
Some components have already come in, some will come in the next coming few years. Because of green steel, our abilities in green steel, we will be able to take more and more advantage of this. Exports for us, they will be more and more indirect exports rather than direct exports.
Okay. Do we see a realization or the EBITDA be better into this kind of exports?
It depends customer to customer and part to part. Clearly, for a customer, like if you're in the luxury end, if you're able to serve a customer like BMW or Mercedes-Benz, the prices are normally a bit better. In some cases, yes, prices are better.
Secondly, on the forging part, when we are building the capacity which will come on stream by beginning of January 2028. On the other side, the customer approvals or how long that will take for us to get starting the ramping-?
I think it's a very valid point. We are strategizing because our partners, Aichi, are amongst the world leaders in the kind of forging we're going to enter into. We are talking to customers if we can start supplying from Japan initially, to get those approvals. Since Aichi is the partner here and Aichi, people are going to be heading the forging, attempt will be to reduce the approval process and approval time.
Okay. On ballpark, what's our product validation or the process validation period for products like forging for us?
Very difficult to say. They'll vary from customer to customer.
Okay.
Some customers that we are talking to. See, all these are just not talks because everyone says we haven't seen the product, we haven't seen the factory just now. These are all talks, but hopefully for well, a couple of customers we have talked to, we should be validated before our plant starts production.
We are integrating those two things, you know.
Through our partners. Because of our partners. Otherwise it will be very difficult. Because of our partners' Aichi, we will be, we should get better approval for some customers. For some customers, like Maruti, they very clearly said, "We will first see the factory in operation here, then start the validation process.
Understood. Is it fair to say that the forging ramp-up will happen in FY 2028?
No
No, no, no. 2028, 2029. We very clearly said it's going to start operations in January to March of 2028. Ramp-up will be 2028, 2029.
Understood. Understood. Thank you. That's it from us.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, anyone who wishes to ask a question. The next question come from the line of Saket Kapoor from Kapoor & Company. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Yeah, Saket, welcome back.
Thank you, sir. Sir, just to take the chronology of events, for this financial year, we are modeling in or factoring in a 10% volume growth with a higher EBITDA range by INR 1,000. How will the forging and the new steel plant commensurate to each other? If you could just explain the chronological event. This 10% volume will be flattened out for the coming two years. That means we will be reaching the peak for this year and even for the next financial year. Is this understanding correct?
No. 250,000 tons, 255,000 tonsthat we reached now, we will, the next year will be 270,000 tons or 275,000 tons. We will have to see the exact numbers. We will try to see, we will try target some outsourcing and so on. We will keep seeing that we are trying to grow, that we will not stop growth. To figure that out two years later, what kind of model we will have is difficult to say just now. For your calculations, please assume static at 270,000 tons or 275,000 tons. If we get this government approval, environmental approval, then yes, then this phase will increase. It's very difficult to commit today.
As far as this plant, existing plant is concerned, 270,000 tons is the figure you should take where we remain static at. In 2028, 2029, we will start seeing results of the forging business. It will be a very small volume, so really not see any impact. The new steel plant will get commissioned in 2028, 2029 also. July 2029 is the target. You will see volumes coming in towards the second half of 2028, 2029. 2029, 2030, we will start seeing a better impact of the new plant.
Okay. The government clearance is for the existing melting shop of 3 lakh tons. We are contemplating a 20% increase on the same.
No, no. Currently we are producing less than 3 lakh tons. Our first attempt is to quickly go to 3 lakh tons, which will happen next year.
The government clearance is for?
3 lakh tons. We'll be at full government capacity level.
Right. Sir, when we look at our plant and property closing balance for the financial year 2026, it is closer to INR 5 crore. That is a significant increase from the last year closing balance. If you could just give us understanding of the breakup of how the CapEx has been and.
I think we've sent a specific email to the CFO. This will be answered. Largely, we have had CapEx going on. Our KOCKS block was commissioned. Our reheating furnace was commissioned. Some warehouses were built, currently being built. Land has been bought. Those are the things which is there. As you know that we bought some land initially, where we started buying the land for the steel plant. We are stuck at INR 50 crore, so that's one area we have for some possible expansion. Then we bought land and with a constructed shed for our new forging line. This is all largely for the new CapEx for the new plants, as well as the KOCKS block and the reheating furnace.
Okay. Sir, two more questions. Firstly, on the incentive part, for the current financial year, what should we factor in for a quarterly run rate, in terms of the government subsidies, whether it is electricity or the other CapEx subsidies, if any, for the full year, if you could share the number? For the new steel plant, does it fall under any government incentive of PLI benefit that we are going to accrue going ahead?
The new plant will not be under any PLI. However, it will be under the Punjab government subsidy scheme. Again, we will have a similar set of subsidies, of electricity duty as well as GST, refunds and some capital subsidies, some on workers. There will be subsidies in new plant also. At Singla, this year, what is the subsidy question?
Currently we are getting two types of subsidies from the Punjab government. One is electricity duty exemption and the second is GST refund. Electricity duty exemption will continue until August 29. GST refund incentive was for seven years and will end on August 26.
Okay. for next financial year, Singla Ji, what should be the number, incentive add karke?
For next financial year, it will be close to INR 12 crores- INR 13 crores for both the incentives. Electricity duty exemption will also come down because of the solar power commissioning. The total incentive will be close to INR 13 crores.
In this financial year?
In this, current financial year, yes.
2026, 2027. How much have we factored for financial year 2026?
It is INR 24 crores.
It will be half for the next financial year.
Yes.
Right. Thank you. One more understanding, Jayant sir, when I joined the queue. In terms of the forging unit, the forging unit will serve the products from our, the current facility and the new steel facility both, or will it just cater to the 5 lakh ton new plant that we are contemplating?
No, it will start from here and then, for each product, the diameter which is the right diameter, gradually more.
I'm sorry, sir, your voice is.
Sir, your line is muffled. Sir, your voice is muffled, sir. We can't hear you.
New steel plant. Initially it will come from this plant because that's what we have today.
Sir, will you repeat the same, sir? We could not hear you, sir.
I said most of the all volume will come from the existing steel plant to start with. Once the new steel plant gets established, and the quality gets in, then more and more of the volume for the current products that we are putting in will come from the new steel plant.
Okay.
Thank you. I'm sorry to interrupt you, Mr. Kapoor, but you may please rejoin the queue for more questions. Thank you. Our next question come from the line of Priyankar Sarkar from Square 64 Capital Advisors. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Good morning, sir. Sir, couple of questions on the balance sheet front. What are the plans of funding in terms of debt, equity and internal accrual? That's one. Do we have any figure in mind that we don't want to cross a certain debt equity ratio that we won't be comfortable crossing?
Yes. At the peak, debt equity, we will keep it below 0.75x. Total debt equity. We are comfortable at 0.5x. There will be an equity infusion. There'll be a further equity infusion sometime later part of next year. At that point in time we'll see how we'll fund that equity. Clearly our partners, Aichi, are ready to invest more. Vardhman Group has committed INR 300 crores-INR 400 crore, we will have that also. At some stage we might do a QIP or something for outside investors. Roughly we see about a 1,200 INR crore of equity infusion, out of which INR 385 crore has already come in.
About INR 800 crores or so roughly equity and about INR 1,200 crore of debt, which will be raised.
Right, sir. Okay. Thank you very much, and wish you all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anil Kumar Sharma, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir. First of all, congratulations. The wonderful job you are doing for us, for all of us. Sir, my question has already been sort answered up to some extent. I want some clarification. As you recently said that our CapEx equity will be INR 1,200 crore and debt will be INR 500 crores. What are the total expenditure CapEx you are thinking about? It means just now it was INR 6,700 crore, but how much CapEx you are planning up to 2030?
The total CapEx that we have planned for the new steel plant is about INR 2,000 crores. For the forging project is about INR 475 crores, which is being announced. We feel that CapEx would be a little lower than that. There is some internal CapEx, plus we will also start some replacement CapEx and normal CapEx. As I said, we are going to start a process of ingot casting and then moving into specialized alloys. As those plans get formulated, there will be investments in electroslag refining, vacuum arc remelting, vacuum induction melting. All those areas we have to study. I'm saying that's the directional area, we will be investing in those. Those have not been discussed fully, announced, planned fully.
In the next one year we'll be finalizing those and announcing our plans in that area. Five years it will be a smaller investment to start with. We are a risk-averse group. When we enter into a newer area, we'll start with a smaller area, smaller investment, and then gradually build up. As of now, the committed in-investment is about INR 2,600 crores.
Okay. Right, sir. My only second question is, sir, how much after this all the established capital planned, as planned is already there, is committed, then what are your ROCE you are keeping in mind? Actually, you are always talk of some sort of target of ROCE. Can we get some figure after 2030?
After the plants are established and running towards full capacity utilization, EBITDA on capital employed, we hope to continue to be above 20%.
Okay, sir. All right. Thank you, sir.
This is a very futuristic figure because we are looking into the future. Yes, below 20%, then it doesn't make sense for us to continue investing.
Much appreciated, sir. Thanks once again for your wonderful efforts you are doing. Thank you.
Thank you, Anil Ji.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Sriram, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Sir, thank you for the opportunity. What will be the components that will be made in the forging plant and what will be the capacity? Like if you can also give in terms of asset terms of the forging plant, it will be helpful.
We are entering a new business, it's very difficult to give all those numbers. We are entering into the area of ring gears, that's the area we are entering into. Each car uses one ring gear, that's the potential volume for car manufacturing in India and export. It's a superior method of making ring gears. It's not a new product. It'll be replacing an existing product with which customers are already using with a far more efficient process. All customers we have talked to are very excited with the announcement of the project that we are bringing into the country. Aichi is one of the world leaders in this method of gear making, that same know-how is gonna come into India to VSS.
As of now, as per their study, there really is no viable competition for this process of gear making, as per Aichi's knowledge. We are still new in the area of forging, so we are relying more and more on their knowledge and their confidence in this, in this process. They have nine lines of this product. We are putting in only one line just now.
Fine, sir. Understood. Thank you. Thank you, sir. All the best.
Thank you so much. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I would like to hand the conference over to Mr. Jain for the closing remarks. Thank you, over to you, sir.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you so much for the interest that you've shown in our company today. Today I did lay out some futuristic thinking. Again, now, as management, our job is to look five, seven, 10 years in the future, which may be longer than the horizon for some of you. I also see some of you on this call are HNIs and individual investors who may have a longer term perspective also. Our job is to show the direction in which we are going while maintaining existing performance. The existing performance to be maintained is very important, and continue to enhance and make the company stronger as we go ahead. Thank you so much for your interest, and we look forward for your continued support. All the best.
Thank you so much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Vardhman Special Steels Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.