Ngā mihi nui ki a koutou katoa. Welcome, good morning to everyone joining on the call. I am joined today by Chief Financial Officer, Phil Neutze. Now, in June, you might recall that we announced our PSE4 outcomes, which spans the 2023 to 2027 financial years, in line with setting charges, which happens once every five years in accordance with the Airport Authorities Act 1966. That pricing announcement was the result of 24 months of extensive consultation with major airlines regarding the aeronautical investment in Auckland Airport over PSE4 to support their business operations, as well as consultation over the airport's wider 10-year development roadmap. Auckland Airport today released disclosure documents to the Commerce Commission for PSE4.
These documents outline a period of transformative change for New Zealand's key gateway airport, with a NZD 5 billion investment in aeronautical infrastructure, of which NZD 2.6 billion will be commissioned between now and the end of 2027 financial year, and is reflected in the new airline charges for that pricing period. Over the PSE4 period, Auckland Airport is forecasting a total of 102 million arriving and departing travelers, the investment program ahead is key to supporting the long-term needs of the New Zealand economy and providing a customer experience that we are all proud of. I'm sure you are keen to get into the detail before we then move into Q&A, let's jump into slide four to kick things off.
The strong recovery in aviation has reinforced the need for Auckland Airport to once again move up on its long-term roadmap for upgrading New Zealand's gateway airport. PSE4 forecasts over 848,000 aircraft movements, and we know that Auckland Airport is the first and last touch point that in New Zealand, that Kiwis and visitors alike experience. This makes it incredibly important to have a resilient and fit-for-purpose infrastructure to meet that future demand. Our focus is on our customers and the interests of all of our stakeholders. That's the traveling public, airline customers, partners, tenants, and the community, and providing the infrastructure and services they need. We are investing in the future with a master plan that takes us to 2044 and beyond. Airports play an outsized role in the health of the economy, and it's a role we take seriously.
The capacity, resilience, and quality of our infrastructure has a direct impact on travelers, airlines, and tourism and trade operators. Our investment in PSE4 is focused on integrating our terminals to not only build capacity but also enhance the customer journey, alongside the necessary upgrades to the existing facilities to ensure airport resilience, and in the case of the current domestic terminal, as we continue to use it until the new integrated terminal is opened. Total aeronautical returns in PSE4 will be 7.79%, with a target return of 8.73%. The difference driven by shared assets and some allocations to non-priced activities, such as airline offices and lounges. We're always very conscious when setting aeronautical charges to balance returns and at the same time, create the right incentives for investment, growth, innovation, and efficiency.
If you move to slide 5, Phil will talk through the detail of pricing in a little while but at a glance, some of the key numbers for PSE4 and PSE5 include PAX numbers that are forecast to lift to 23.9 million by FY 2027. That's up 50% from 15.9 million passengers in the 2023 financial year and up 13% on the, sorry, 21.1 million passengers pre-COVID in the 2019 financial year. Then it's going to lift again by a further 3.8 million to 27.7 million by the end of PSE5 in FY 2032. Total regulated commissioned CapEx in the PSE4 period is NZD 3.1 billion. That is assets commissioned and in use in PSE4.
For the PSE4 and five period, this figure is NZD 6.7 billion. Aircraft runway movements are forecast to grow from the 145,000 we saw in FY 2023 to 191,000 by the end of PSE4, and 210,000 by the end of PSE5. Regulated revenue during PSE4 will be NZD 2.8 billion. Moving to slide six. Our purpose is to revitalize and inspire as we connect people and place and our disciplined approach to our infrastructure program is focused on adding the necessary capacity and resilience, as well as upgrades to the existing assets to deliver to that purpose and what a gateway airport needs. We know that the customer experience hasn't always been what we expect it to be as we have ramped up activity throughout the recovery.
We are investing significant effort in addressing this with our partners across the ecosystem. While we are seeing some tangible improvements, there is more work to be done. We will be sticking at it until it is where it needs to be. Moving to slide seven. The 10-year roadmap lays out the transformation journey of the aviation system at Auckland. You'll notice much of it is largely in line with what was announced and underway pre-pandemic, needed to be paused until the recovery profile was clear. We also took the opportunity during that pause to reassess and validate projects.
The key projects include the integrated terminal, announced in March to replace the domestic terminal, domestic airfield expansion to support the new terminal, a contingent runway, a refresh of the current domestic terminal, a future regional solution, upgraded roads and transport system, the transport hub, stage one arrivals hall upgrade, the new cargo precinct, and the northern stands and stormwater upgrades. The international arrivals expansion stage two and the northern runway remain on hold at this stage and are not in the roadmap. We all know 10 years is a long time, so it's worth calling out that the projects in the roadmap are subject to change and may be replaced, deferred, or canceled.
Moving to slide eight, really, these next four slides, which will round out my introduction, cover the key programs of regulated investment across PSE4 and 5. I'm just gonna touch on each of them briefly for you. On this slide, the integrated terminal is the focus. It will deliver a step change in the domestic experience and is the lion's share of the investment over the two periods at just over NZD 4.1 billion. The key elements that underpin this are the enabling and resilience projects. We have a multi-year program of enabling works to relocate infrastructure and prepare the site for construction of the new integrated terminal. That's from airfield capacity, such as stands and stormwater upgrades, as well as international arrivals upgrades, terminal roading and forecourts.
The new baggage system will have greater speed, accuracy and capacity and be much better for travelers, as well as the expansion of the international check-in area to accommodate domestic passengers. The domestic processor itself, obviously, with domestic jet operations integrating into the existing international terminal, it will feature a new domestic jet pier, headhouse, and arrivals hall, due to open in 2028, 2029. This headhouse will see a 20% increase in gates and a 26% uplift in seat capacity, as they are all A321-capable gates. Importantly for customers, no one loves a queue, so the view of handling 44% more departing passengers per hour than the current terminal will be due to an increased space for security screening. Finally, on this slide, the transport hub.
It's going to transform how travelers arrive and depart from the integrated terminal and paves the way for any future mass rapid transit to deliver passengers to the heart of the precinct with an undercover pickup and drop-off at the doorstep of our terminal. Moving to slide nine. Alongside the integrated terminal, there are a number of investments that are linked to it, and that totals NZD 925 million over the two pricing periods. The current domestic terminal will be refreshed to extend its life for the five years of the integrated terminal build. There's an aeronautical capacity program, which includes upgrades to assets for the international terminal and airfield facilities, and these include things across security, fuel, amenities, and airport emergency services. The development of the contingent runway on Taxiway Alpha that is safe, reliable, meets future demand, and complies with regulatory requirements.
I really can't stress enough that it is a single runway airport. Ensuring future resilience through a fully operational contingent runway is critical. Moving to slide 10. There are also a number of investment projects focused on strengthening the core, with roading, utilities, and airfield renewal programs totaling just over NZD 850 million over the two periods. The roading program delivers to elements of the long-term transport master plan to increase and deliver new capacity and efficiency across the network, and an example of that being the new four-lane road connecting George Bolt Memorial Drive to Nixon Road in the east. Utilities program to increase capacity of the existing utility networks and invest in new functionality and systems.
Really important foundational elements, such as upgrades to stormwater network to reduce the risk of terminal flooding in extreme weather events, upgrades to precinct fiber networks to increase overall resilience. Of course, decarbonization activity in the international terminal, and we are replacing gas boilers with electric. Finally, on this slide, key airfield renewals. We've got the ongoing maintenance and renewal of airfield pavements and our recently acquired ground lighting assets. Finally, on slide 11, it summarizes other renewals and ongoing repairs and maintenance over PSE4 and PSE5, totaling just over NZD 860 million. The ongoing renewals are needed to ensure existing assets are fit for purpose, safe to operate, and facilitate efficient operations.
Specific types of activity within that program include terminal renewals such as bathrooms, air bridges, escalators, as well as the renewals of existing utility and roading networks and technology and systems such as check-in kiosk and CCTV. Also here, we've highlighted the cargo precinct. We know the current facilities are old and not optimized for efficiency, and this program proposes a dedicated and consolidated cargo handling facility on the northern side of the airfield. It will provide new cargo terminal operations, building shell and services, and allow the increase of cargo capacity and provide new airside road access to the existing airfield. This is really important because it unlocks land currently used by the existing cargo facility to enable future airfield expansion and upgrades.
While I realize that was somewhat of a whistle-stop tour, it should give you a good sense of the scale of transformation underway at Auckland Airport, with more than 400,000 square meters of airport land now under aeronautical development. It's vital that we continue to invest in Auckland Airport's long-term future, so we don't create a drag on the economy and constrain Auckland and New Zealand's future prosperity. We're focused on building a resilient and competitive hub airport that keeps New Zealand directly connected to the world for trade and visitation, and creates a customer experience that we're all proud of. I'll hand over to Phil to take us through the pricing in more detail before we open up for questions after that. Phil?
Thanks, Carrie. Yes, we've got an incredible infrastructure transformation underway at, at Auckland Airport, we have to admit, it is daunting, but we're already well underway. At our current run rate on total company CapEx is over NZD 90 million at the latest month, and that's tracking upwards, so we're on, on track to deliver this. Before I get into my section of this presentation, I want to remind you that we published and took you through a far more detailed PSE4 pricing decision presentation back on eighth of June. There's a lot of useful information in that presentation that you might like to refer back to.
Things like OpEx forecasts, the PSE4 aeronautical tariff structures, and that includes the new demand and CapEx risk wash-up mechanisms, how we derive the target return, and benchmarking of our FY 2024 prices versus Australasian airports. Moving now to slide 13. The pricing decision that we announced on the 8th of June requires us, under the Part 4 of the Commerce Act, to then release detailed pricing disclosures. This presentation summarizes the key financial and operational information out to PSE4, the end of PSE4, so that's June 2027. That's required per the disclosure regs. Also, per the disclosure regs, we're obliged to provide longer-term demand and CapEx forecasts out to 2032. That's also contained in this investor presentation.
On this slide, you can see what's, it aims to explain to you the difference between priced aeronautical activities and total regulated activities. Total regulated includes aircraft and freight, so we set charges for those assets to our customers through normal arm's length lease arrangements, and so that's carved out of the aeronautical pricing process for terminal and landing charges. Aircraft and freight includes cargo handling, fuel provision, hangars, premises for caterers, ground handlers, and the like. Also, there's other non-priced regulated activities in the terminals, things like airline offices, airline lounges, the duty-free collection point, as well as Auckland Airport's lounges. That's really what's new in this presentation versus, versus eighth of June, getting a sense of how much assets, and is added to the picture by those non-priced, regulated activities and what that does to returns.
Over the page to slide 14. We've talked about this before, but big picture, we expect that the passenger numbers will recover to pre-COVID levels somewhere between FY 2025 and FY 2026. Domestic recovery of 103% versus pre-COVID FY 2019 by FY 2025, and international recovery of 105% of pre-COVID FY 2019 by FY 2026. We also, in the footnote, explain that these passenger forecasts include non-billable passenger movements. This is what's required for the Price Setting Disclosure. Non-billable, outbound transit passengers, we only bill inbound for transit. We don't bill for children under two, and we don't bill for airline positioning crew. Those non-billable PAX numbers are pulled out for our Price Setting Forecast. Now on slide 15.
Over Price Setting Event 4, aeronautical charges will increase, but they'll remain competitive with comparable airports. We provided some benchmarking on 8th June . We didn't repeat it here, but we have modified a little bit in the Price Setting Disclosure. If you look at page 16, you'll see some more detailed analysis. What we've done is we've converted all the dollar numbers into real FY 2023 dollars to give a like-for-like comparison. We've shown Auckland Airport's charges as at FY 2024 and our forecast for FY 2027, both presented in real dollars. What you can see is that our domestic charges will be less than Wellington Airport and Christchurch Airport throughout, throughout PSE4, and our international charges will be similar to Sydney Airport and well below Brisbane throughout PSE4.
That doesn't allow for any above-inflation price increases that those other airports may well implement. The increase in our prices over PSE4, they're driven by a few things. One is the NZD 2.6 billion of commissioned price assets to be delivered in that period. Catch up of the more than NZD 100 million revenue shortfall in FY 2023 because of the price freeze that we put in place to support airlines in the early stages of the COVID recovery. As agreed with the airlines, when we put that in place, that's forecast to be recovered over the remaining four years, and we've targeted a higher return than PSE3, 8.73%. You can refer to page 52 of the Price Setting Disclosure for a detailed analysis.
Also, you might want to delve into the several hundred pages of submissions that we've made on the Commerce Commission's Cost of Capital Input Methodology Review. They are very comprehensive, very well evidenced, and we stand by them, so please take a look at that if you get a chance. How we set 8.73% was we implied the in-force WACC Input Methodology at the start of our pricing period, and we updated all the, the, the key comparable company data that flows into that.
That was updated asset beta data and leverage data. We also used the Commission's most recently published post-tax market risk premium that was available at the time. We discontinued the 5 basis points downward adjustment to asset beta, based on the misconception that aeronautical part of airport companies has lower systematic risk than the company average. We provided a lot of evidence, both to the airlines during this consultation and also to the Commission in the WACC IM review, that, that discredited that. The Commission agrees with that and has subsequently dropped that from its draft decision. Moving on to slide 16, I think this slide may well have piqued some interest from analysts.
The first, the left-hand side shows our individual year ROI over the five years for priced activities versus our 8.73% target re-return. You can see there that we only achieved 3.3% in FY 2023, and that's why over FY 2024-2027, that needs to be above 8.73% to get us that on average. You can delve into the pricing disclosure to get the detail, but towards the end of the process, we noticed a couple of omissions and errors from the forecast that we used to set prices. There are some land transfers into the RAB that we had missed, as well as some assets disposals for zero consideration that we've missed.
Had we captured that, that would have lowered our, our forecast return over the period. We've chosen not to subsequently adjust, readjust the aeronautical prices to pull it back up. Instead, we've flowed this through into a mechanism that's allowed by the regulation called a carryforward adjustment, of about NZD 42 million. That will increase the closing, RAB or Regulatory Capital Value at the end of PSE4, which will, in effect, carry through that, error into PSE5, and then we'll consult with our customers on a potential recovery of that. There was another omission as well. Some rates, expenses that we had factored into priced activities more correctly relate to aeronautical land for, held for future use for the second runway, so we've pulled that out.
Moving to the right-hand side of this chart, you can see that our total forecast return on all regulated activities is not 8.73%, it's 7.79%, and that's because our returns on non-price activities, aircraft and freight, as I mentioned before, as well as VIP lounges, airline offices, and duty-free collection is lower than our target return. The reason for that is that the methodology, a lot of this aeronautical CapEx gets shared across a range of segments, so it's not all just allocated 100% to airlines to be recovered through prices. In fact, very little of it is 100% allocated to that segment. There's also a healthy chunk that's allocated to these non-price activities. It's just an allocation of RAB.
It doesn't actually change the spaces and the quality of them, so it's difficult for us to justify putting up our rents for them because there's an allocated RAB overhead. Now on to slide 17. This is cash flow, so well, it actually shows both CapEx cash flow over PSE4 and PSE5, for total aeronautical regulated CapEx, but also shows the commissioning profile of that. As you can see, most of the CapEx is in PSE4, which finishes FY 2027, whereas most of the commissioning, or certainly the majority, is into PSE5 and beyond. The bullet on the left-hand side talks about $3 billion of commissioning during PSE4 and $3.5 billion in PSE5.
That only adds up to NZD 6.5 billion, which might cause the eagle-eyed amongst you to wonder why we're referring to NZD 6.7 billion of Commission assets over PSE4 and PSE5. That's because we've carried some WIP into the start of PSE4 that gets commissioned. Just three slides to go now before we open up to Q&A, and we're on slide 18. This is self-explanatory. The titles that we've viewed, used down the left-hand side are consistent with other disclosures in the price-setting disclosure and elsewhere in this presentation that Carrie's talked you through. The key call-out I wanna make is, if you look at terminal integration, domestic processor, in the category called aeronautical program, you can see that there's a fair bit of CapEx in PSE4, but not much commissioning.
For those, there's a lot of commissioning in PSE5, but not much CapEx. Those two add up to $1.6 billion of WIP that's carried over at the end of PSE4. If you look at Schedule 18 of our price and disclosure, the total WIP carried forward at the end of PSE4 is $2.3 billion. This is what really hurts credit metrics for us towards the end of the PSE4. We're not actually earning any cash return on that WIP. We are compounding it at our target return, so we're protecting value, but we're not getting cash return. That's why we've called out previously that there's a possibility of us requiring a equity raise sometime towards the end of PSE4 to maintain that A- credit rating, and I'll come back to that.
Now on to slide 19, regulatory timeline. The Commission has published its draft WACC-IM decision. We expect the final decision to be announced in December this year. That draft decision includes material changes to the long-standing WACC-IM methodology that, frankly, the Commission has very strongly insisted that airports follow for the last 13 years and has now changed its tune entirely. I also can let you know that the Commission staff has confirmed that our PSE4 pricing decision, that's a 2016 WACC IM that applies to that, and the Commission's looking for the evidence that we've provided, that its own calculation of return or WACC as it started PSE4 is not correct.
It isn't because the input data was so badly out of date and wrong, and we've provided a lot of the evidence to that, to the Commission and to airlines in this consultation. We expect, finally, that the Commission's review of our PSE4 aeronautical pricing decision will be published in May next year. That's likely to be a draft decision. Not sure exactly on the timing of the final, but that will give us a good steer for where the Commission sees things, and we'll consider that in due course. Finally, on to slide 20. I've touched a bit on this already. We've done a lot of long-term forecasting, and we believe holding the A- credit rating gives the best returns to our shareholders over the next 10 years.
In fact, compared with allowing a 1-notch rating downgrade, holding the credit rating, even if it requires an equity raise, is likely to result in circa 5% higher EPS over that period than taking a downgrade. There's two main reasons for that. The downgrade will probably cost us about 30 basis points of higher interest expense, and that's on a big increase in borrowings over the next 10 years. That really hurts. We've got a forward P/ E at the moment of circa 45x. That implies a current return on equity of about 3%. Compare that. That's pre-tax. Compare that with our pre-tax cost of debt of about 5.5%.
We could actually go out today, we're not gonna do it, but we could go out today and raise equity and repay debt, and that would boost EPS. That's the weird environment that we're in right now, but that's just another contributing factor why, to why it makes good sense for us to avoid a credit rating downgrade through raising equity, if we need to. Our forecast, based on the 8.73% return, is that we'll need. Depending on the delivery rate for that aeronautical infrastructure, we'll need somewhere between no equity raise at all and up to NZD 1 billion, based on that target return. If ultimately we adjust that target return lower after the Commerce Commission publishes its review of our PSE4 pricing decision, then that would increase any required equity raise.
I think, as I've indicated strongly, we absolutely stand behind everything that's fed into that target return. I think we're happy to open it up to Q&A now, Carrie.
Yeah, we are. Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question is from Andy Bowley from Forsyth Barr. Please go ahead.
Thanks, operator. Good morning, guys. A couple of questions from me, the first of which is around slide 16 on non-priced assets. If I look at the two charts and I try and do some simple math, taking one from the other to try and work out what the IRR is for non-priced assets, it looks pretty low. Yeah, can you talk specifically to the non-priced IRR for PSE4? You know, what level and why so low?
I can talk to the second part. No, we don't disclose precisely what that is, but you can back solve it. Welcome you doing that. The reason it's so low is almost entirely because it gets whacked with a share based on the allocation process for a, a range of aeronautical projects which are delivering to airlines and passengers, that we price for the majority of that. There is a shared allocation to non-priced, and there's no immediate justification for increasing the rentals to those customers because of a indirect RAB allocation.
Would you expect to increase the rentals, you know, accordingly in due course, Phil?
Well, it would depend what happens to market rates, 'cause it's based on arm's length market rates.
Yeah
which will grow over time.
Okay. Maybe you can talk about expectations about how you think the ComCom will consider those non-priced assets in the context of its pricing review. You know, I'm mindful that the ComCom was due to review its approach to these kind of assets during PSE3, didn't seem to get around to it.
Yes. So during PSE3, we actually forecast returns from this segment that were well above our target return. Naturally, the Commerce Commission was quite interested in that and wanted to take a good look at it. As I've explained, because of this allocated RAB overhead, our forecast returns in the segment is now well below our target return. Whether or not that interests the commission any longer, I guess, remains to be seen. We this is a regulatory framework that's intended to give all interested parties a view of the sort of returns that Auckland Airport is earning on the aeronautical monopoly part of the business, and overall, it's substantially below our target return use for pricing. We'd expect the commission to note that and take into consideration.
The review from the ComCom is principally on the pricing assets?
hasn't been previously. Previously, it's opined on both. If you look back into PSE2, definitely took a total regulated activity approach.
PSE3 was just on the pricing assets, wasn't it?
PSE3, it acknowledged that the, the non-pricing increased our return a smidgen over what we're targeting for price. The Commerce Commission wasn't bothered by that smidgen.
Okay. The other question I've got here is around just the IM review. If I read your submission to the, the draft ComCom report, you appear a tad unhappy with the, the draft review outcome, particularly for asset beta. If we assume for, for one moment that the ComCom retains that kind of level of asset beta for the final report in December, can you talk about how that then may influence your investment decisions outlined in the CapEx today?
Well, it, it depends what we seek to do about that. You may be aware that there's a merits review mechanism in the regulation by which any party, airlines or airlines, can challenge changes to input methodologies.
I guess what I'm saying, that, that kind of process would take time, and CapEx is being spent in the meantime. There'd be no, no change to any of the investment decisions you've made to date in relation to what would be an ongoing process?
It's yes, there would likely be impacts. We would, of course, be very disappointed if this draft determination is finalized as is. It will seriously challenge business cases for a number of projects. However, I think it's fair to say that we're well underway on terminal integration, as we announced back in June, of our NZD 6.7 billion program, about NZD 4 billion of that is terminal integration related. Really, it's the balance that would be up for grabs.
Okay, great. Thanks, guys.
Thank you. Just one moment for our next question, please. Our next question we have from Wade Gardiner, from Craigs Investment Partners. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Look, the, the, the CapEx that you've outlined today, you know, sort of circa NZD 1 billion more than what you outlined in June. That's fine. I mean, you know, it includes other assets, but what we haven't really talked about is I, I guess the, the non-regulated CapEx, you know, property, you know, expansions to retail area, car parks, that sort of thing, over this period. Are you able to sort of outline, you know, the, the magnitude of, of what we should be expecting there?
Yeah, in, in bold park terms, Wade, we've previously talked about that being circa between NZD 100 million and NZD 200 million per annum. It's more likely to be at the NZD 200 million end on average over that period.
That includes, investment property?
Yes.
Okay. That's all I have. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from Grant Lowe, from Jarden. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi, team. A couple of questions for me. Just, you, you called out the, on slide 16 around the adjustments which were made after the initial Price Setting Disclosure, and you talked about the NZD 42 million adjustment to the investment value. Just in terms of the 8.73%, what, sort of, what sort of quantum did that drop by, without that NZD 42 million adjustment?
dropped to around about NZD 8.5 net of those three-
Okay.
-items.
Yeah, okay. Right. The NZD 42 million, effectively, that, that, that brings it back up to NZD 8.73.
Yes.
Okay. Just, just I wanted to be clear, appreciate Andy raised the question around this, the focus on the 8.73 or the 7.79. Just given how different that is, this time around, how, what, what do you think the Commerce Commission's focus is going to be on... Like, is there, obviously, the 8.73 is quite a bit higher than what was implied at the draft decision, at least. Do you, do you think that the total return gets a bit more focus this time around, just given the size of that delta?
I would say it should, because that NZD 1 billion of extra CapEx that's showed up this time around is all going into that segment, so it's significant. It is genuine aeronautical activity, and the commission is concerned about all aeronautical customers and all elements of the aeronautical business. What I, I would expect the commission to, to be equally concerned about both of those, well, both segments and the overall picture.
... Yeah, okay. Is there any sort of I appreciate, you know, some of this comes down to, some of the total will be down to asset allocation and whatnot, which is ultimately, ultimately a subjective exercise with much method behind it, I guess. But in terms of, do you think there's a risk around questions along the lines of cross-subsidization with the 8.73, just given the delta between those two? And, you know, obviously, though, the 8.73 is the priced activities which are, you know, consumers, yeah, you know, directly. Do you think that, that, that's an argument for some potential cross-subsidization in there?
No. it, it has no influence on what we charge for those other regulated activities. The revenues we get from landing charges and passenger charges has no influence and never will. It's all based on, our assessment of the, the market rentals on those spaces. it's not cross-subsidization, because 8.73% is the correct target return to get an economic return.
Okay. That was everything for me. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Just one moment please for our next question. Next, we have Marcus Curley from UBS. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Phil. I just wondered on a couple of things. First, you know, obviously, the Commerce Commission's let you know that it's gonna be based off PSE3. Yeah, was there any extra color, you know, in terms of how they're thinking about that? Is it sort of, you know, was it a relatively bland sort of response that you got, you know, with regard to the application of PSE3?
The response was that the 2016 WACC IM was in force, and the Commission will be very interested in the evidence that we've provided that results in a different calculated WACC to its own estimate.
Okay. And, and secondly, you know, your, your, your description of the equity capital raise range, I think you said anywhere between zero and NZD 1 billion, based off current pricing. Like, it's quite a wide range for, for something you're talking about in, you know, maybe a couple of years' time. Is, Maybe you could talk to, you know, what, what you think, you know, possibly changes in the next sort of 12 months that sort of, you know, determines, you know, where in that range you may sit?
Yeah. It's, that's, that range is based on probably a feasible range in CapEx delivery. It's a range between 75% and 100% of the forecast.
Okay. Okay, so if you only achieve 75% of CapEx, yeah, you, you don't need to raise money, but based off your current base case pricing?
Yes.
At, but at, at the moment, you talked about a run rate. Would that run rate that you're seeing in terms of CapEx at the moment be consistent with the plan, or is that, how would you describe that?
It's great progress. It's well on the way, but it needs to keep ramping up.
Then, and then finally.
Sorry, Marcus Curley, it's Carrie Hurihanganui, and I would just add, you know, we've seen, for the last six months, a month-on-month consistent growth in that delivery run rate. We're not at our optimal run rate pace yet, but we are making very good progress in the, in that direction, as, as Phil Neutze highlighted. We're, we're, we're confident at this stage.
Okay. Then finally, I, I was sort of surprised to see very little second runway CapEx in the 10-year program. There's, there's a footnote in there suggesting that the, the, the timing's under review. Could you talk a little bit about, you know, what you're thinking on the, on the second runway at this stage?
I'll, I'll kick off, and Phil can add on that. I mean, it, the, really it comes down just to the level of uncertainty at this point in time, where we, you know, we at this point, we're saying international is back to FY19 levels, 2026, FY26, sorry. The element of that, it certainly has shifted from where it was pre-COVID, but the element of, of the uncertainty and, and recovery as, as well as, as we look more broadly in, in conversations around decarbonization of the industry and otherwise. Those are some of the drivers. We just don't have clarity in that piece, which is why we don't see it featuring significantly in these two periods. Phil, anything you want to add?
No, that about covers it. Thanks, Carrie.
Just to be clear, you know, when you, you know, you're, you're, you're about to embark on the, on the runway, you know, pre-COVID, based off a capacity view of the airport. Has, has the capacity view of the airport changed, you know, or if the aircraft requirements, you know, get back to where they were expected to be, you know, the second runway would then be triggered?
Yes, I can jump in there. Thanks for clarifying the question. We did a lot of work just before COVID on timing of the second runway, and we went into to that exercise with a starting hypothesis of requiring the second runway in 2028. We, through the detailed analysis we did and planned productivity improvements to the main runway, we got that out to 2032. The feedback from the airlines was: We would like to work together to implement other measures that would take that to 2035, and we were committed to doing that. Then if you compare where we're at now, we're basically saying that we expect to be back at, at pre-COVID levels by somewhere between FY 2025 and FY 2026.
That means our demand that's versus FY 2029, means our demand curve has, has slipped to the right by 6 years. All things being equal, you'd add another six years to that.
Okay, potentially, a second runway needed to be operational in 2041?
Yeah, certainly to be confirmed, long before.
Sure. Okay.
Thank you. Just a moment, please, for our next question. Next, we have Amit Wadia from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I've just got a question on, again, harping back on slide 16. You're saying 8.73% return on the aeronautical CapEx and 7.79% including non-priced assets. When I think about your CapEx on the non-priced assets, that's kind of significant, around NZD 1 billion for the next 10 years, versus your NZD 5.5 billion-NZD 5.6 billion spend on the priced activity. I think you are referring that the Commission might have a look at the-- might have some regard to your total returns, which I think would be lower in PSE5 as well, aero versus total. Why the Commission would have some regard? Because this is meaningful spend, which is in the non-priced. Shouldn't the Commission then look at your total return rather than the aero return?
Yes, the commission typically does that. The commission noted last time around that our forecast returns from the non-priced activities were higher than our target return for priced activities, and indicated it wanted to spend some time on that. It was clearly comfortable with the overall return. I think it added 10 basis points or so to our total regulated return versus targeted for pricing, and the commission was comfortable with that. We certainly expect the commission to take a pan-business view. That's its job.
Sure. Maybe, you talked to the size of equity raise of between NZD 0 and NZD 1 billion. I think from the memory, that's the same size you talked to in June. Today you're highlighting more CapEx, NZD 500 million for the next five years. What's changed?
Nothing. We were well, well aware of that additional CapEx that we'll be disclosing as part of this pricing disclosure.
Right. This doesn't have any impact on your A- credit rating, because obviously your total returns are lower than 7 of 7.79%. You're saying you're, you were aware of your total returns back then?
Yes.
Okay. All right, that's all I had. Thank you.
Thank you. I will now hand back for closing remarks.
Kia ora. Thanks, everyone. Really appreciate you joining us on the call today. As, as I'm sure is very clear and evident in today's presentation, we're certainly focused on building the competitive hub that we need going forward for New Zealand, and in short, we're getting on with it. Certainly welcome any further questions you have offline between Phil and Stewart and the team. Please do reach out if, if you have any subsequent questions, but appreciate you taking the time this morning, and best of luck.