...Welcome to today's conference call, where Contact Energy will present on the proposed acquisition of Manawa. I'm pleased to present Mr. Mike Fuge, CEO, and Mr. Dorian Devers, CFO of Contact Energy. For the first part of this call, all participants will be in listen-only mode. Afterwards, there will be a question and answer session. I will now hand across to Mr. Fuge.
Kia ora tātou, and welcome, everyone. I'm delighted to be here today to announce that Contact Energy has agreed to buy Manawa Energy, bringing together two independent companies committed to delivering and accelerating New Zealand's decarbonization. If we can just flip through the slide. Sorry. Just the usual disclaimers. Because of the announcement today, it's a little bit longer. And just the overview of how we're going to run the presentation today. So just summarizing the acquisition. The strategic rationale for combining Contact and Manawa is compelling, and it's underpinned by the following: two geographically and temporally diversified hydro schemes, which are very complementary to each other, largely due to Contact and Manawa hydro power stations generating higher amounts of electricity at different times of the year.
This enhances the overall portfolio resilience and the ability to support the energy market more broadly. This combination accelerates our Contact26 strategy to some degree, to grow Contact's renewable generation portfolio and to decarbonize its overall generation. Post-combination, Contact will boast a diversified development pipeline of over 10 TWh in addition, which will be supported by complementary development capabilities across the companies. The scrip-based transaction structure has been specifically designed to ensure that Contact maintains the capital flexibility to deliver on its development pipeline while maintaining its Triple-B credit rating. The structure also enables Manawa shareholders to retain exposure to New Zealand's electricity market and sector, and share in the future combination benefits.
These strategic benefits are expected to deliver attractive financial benefits for both Contact and Manawa shareholders, including greater stability of energy generation and cash flow, is expected to enhance, in turn, Contact's dividend per share profile by NZD 0.01 per share in FY 2026, bringing it up to NZD 0.40 per share, and by NZD 0.02-NZD 0.03 per share in FY 2027, bringing it up to NZD 0.41-NZD 0.42 per share. There are significant future embedded value within Manawa's standalone portfolio. Their portfolio combination benefits and cost synergies are expected to support the transaction. And as well, the margin on what we've talked about earlier, the Manawa normalized EBITDA contribution of around NZD 220 million.
The transaction implies a 10.7 times normalized EBITDA acquisition multiple, which we believe is a fair value, given the nature of Manawa's unique, very long life hydro assets and attractive development opportunities. We expect the transaction to be value accretive for Contact, with forecast internal rates of return to in turn exceed Contact's own internal WACC. Now, just moving on to the next slide. Thank you. We all know it's been a volatile period for New Zealand's energy market. Winter 2024 has seen one of the driest sequences on record for South Island hydro lakes, and this, combined with unseasonably low wind and a rapid and unexpected decline in natural gas supply, has meant that unhedged electricity purchasers have faced high costs on the spot market.
A number of generators, including Manawa, have issued forward earnings revisions, reflecting lower generation volumes and higher costs to serve their energy commitment. It does need to be noted that prices have subsequently softened as the rain has come, and as the market in turn has reacted to dramatically increased supply through the contracted gas from Methanex and the early spring rainfall. We believe the benefits of the Contact and Manawa combination are important for the New Zealand energy market and energy transition, ensuring New Zealand makes the best use of its existing renewable assets for the good of our environment. It allows for the more effective use of the combined hydro assets, as we show here. For example, we expect to see less spills, we won't need to carry lake levels as high going into winter.
This means, in turn, that the combination increases renewable output and reduces reliance on expensive thermal generation, whether that is from coal, gas, or diesel. This reduced generation volatility will lower Contact's reliance on thermal generation and increases the ability of our combined business, rather, to offer competitive risk management products to the market, or place a higher volume of fixed price, variable volume supply agreements into the market. I've talked earlier today about the enhanced development pipeline and enhanced capabilities, together with a transaction structure that sees the capital options retained. This will increase Contact's ability to develop and invest in renewable development opportunities to increase renewable generation capacity, which, among other benefits, will enhance energy market security and contribute to putting downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices with the increased supply.
With the combination, we will not only be best placed to accelerate renewable generation projects being built, but ensure that the best projects are built first, which ultimately will reduce prices for consumers. This competition for capital is critical to ensure that consumers will pay the lowest cost possible for electricity going forward. Now, just in terms of the deal, Contact has entered into a scheme implementation agreement with Manawa to acquire 100% of Manawa via a mixture of Contact shares and cash. As consideration, Manawa shareholders will receive NZD 4.79 per share in Contact shares and NZD 1.16 in cash, implying a total consideration of NZD 5.95 per share or an EV enterprise value of around NZD 2.3 billion. As a result of the share-based transaction structure, Manawa shareholders are expected to own around 18.5% of Contact shares post-completion of the transaction.
The final cash consideration and the number of shares issued to Manawa shareholders are subject to adjustments for dividends paid by Contact to Manawa between the scheme signing and its actual implementation. For continuity and to help support the realization of the combination benefits of Manawa's business and the assets and the growth of the combined business, it's intended that Manawa's chairman, Deion Campbell, will join the Contact's board, following the implementation of the scheme. The estimated cash consideration and repayment of outstanding Manawa bank debt and bonds will initially be funded by new committed Contact bank debt facilities. Major Manawa shareholders, Infratil and TECT Holdings, who between them hold or control about 77.9% of the company, have committed to vote in favor of the scheme, subject to certain conditions being met.
The primary one among that is the transaction is subject to the Commerce Commission clearance, among other conditions, and this is targeted to be implemented in the first half of 2025. Now, just to give you an overview of Manawa and the 25 hydro. So Manawa owns and operates 25 hydro schemes around New Zealand. It is a unique, independent New Zealand electricity generator. It has around 500 MW of generation capacity, which is, as I said before, winter weighted, and this means its generation is skewed to when electricity demand is higher and prices are generally above the average for the year. Manawa's generation, as you can see from the slide, is diversified across Aotearoa, with approximately half in the North Island and half in the South Island, and its generation is almost entirely from renewable hydro sources.
In FY 2024, 99% of its generation was from renewable sources. As I said earlier, Manawa also has a significant development pipeline, with over 1,200 MW of geographically diversified and secure development options in wind and solar. Land has been secured for all these sites, and three major developments, Kaiwaikawe, formerly known as Central Wind, Kaihuku Wind, and the consented Argyle Solar Farm, which collectively represent an expected annual output of around 1.5 TWh , are in the advanced development stages, and we're delighted to have them in our portfolio. Dorian?
Thank you, Mike. So Manawa has no retail business. It's a generation business. It sells renewable generation under long-term contracts that provides it with stable cash flows, which really makes it quite infrastructure in nature. However, those sales volumes were contracted into in a lower price environment, meaning the embedded value within them as they reprice up to market transfers to Contact as part of this acquisition. Relative to other generators, Manawa pricing achieved, and therefore, EBITDA, has been depressed by the Mercury PPA, which was entered into in a lower price environment.
The price of that PPA, which you can see on the chart on the right-hand side, an estimate, is significantly below the market price, if you consider the ASX curve going out to FY or to 2027 , or even if you consider Contact's long-term view of pricing of NZD 120 per MWh , billed in 2024 terms. The PPA accounts for 2 TWh of the sales, which is about 66% of Manawa's sales, and as Mike said, it's very valuable because it's 60% winter- weighted, and that's the time when national demand is at its highest, and the price of electricity is at its highest.
Importantly, it starts to roll off the PPA from the first of October 2024, at a rate of 250 GWh every year, allowing this to reprice the market. And then in parallel to this, any remaining volume on the PPA has a market-based escalation that kicks in from the first of October 2026. This unlocks significant embedded value. So we're now just going to get into the strategic rationale for the deal. I'll, I'll start on this now. So the acquisition is just strategically compelling. There's four key benefits from the combination that I'll just talk you through. So the geographic diversification of the combined hydro assets delivers some unique benefits from how they complement each other, and I'll talk to that in a minute. The next benefit comes from the combination of the wind and solar development pipeline.
Contact has 6 TWh , Manawa has 4 TWh , meaning the combined business has a 10 TWh , solar and wind development pipeline, and the great people across both businesses in order to develop and execute on these projects. Combined, we can ensure the very best projects get built first, so as Mike said, that leads to lower electricity prices, because the very best projects need the lowest electricity prices to be economic, and when you combine this with Contact's funding structure, which is unique across all of the major generators, it means we are best placed to access the capital to build out this combined pipeline.
The next benefit then complements the last one, as consumers don't want to purchase intermittent renewables, they want firmed electricity that they can rely on at all times, and the flexible hydro in Manawa's portfolio can be used to firm the intermittent renewable pipeline as it is built out. And the last benefit sees a larger, more resilient business, with over 10 TWh of generation. That's 94% renewable, with lower hydrology risk, less need for thermal fuel. It has therefore more stable cash flows, which reduces its cost of capital, which combined with Contact's funding options, allows for more renewables to be brought to market than could be if we were two independent businesses. These strategic benefits underpin significant financial benefits, which we will talk to later.
This next couple of slides are going to sort of elaborate a little bit on the benefits from the hydro schemes being complementary. The map here really does highlight the increased diversity that Manawa brings to Contact, with hydro assets across the lengths and breadths of New Zealand. Importantly, you can see the extensive North Island footprint of Manawa's hydro assets, where Contact has none. And so this really complements the portfolio, because North Island hydro generation tends to be winter dominated, as opposed to Contact's South Island hydro, which has higher inflows in the summer. This slide just backs this up. On the left-hand side, you can see the Manawa's hydro generation across the year.
There is highest in the winter, and then you can also see Contact's hydro generation there, is highest in the spring going into summer, and that's due to the snow melt. The chart on the right really highlights how complementary the hydro generation is over time. As you can see that in years when hydro generation is low for Manawa, for example, it tends to be high for Contact and vice versa. This means together, the hydro generation is more predictable, reducing our risks, and therefore allowing us to sell two hundred to three hundred gigawatt hours more fixed price volume per year to customers than we could if we were two separate businesses. This is what we refer to as portfolio benefit. It is unique to a Contact-Manawa combination. The benefit comes from the most effective use of New Zealand's renewable assets.
This means less need for fossil fuel and less money going offshore, for example, to secure coal. The next strategic benefit we talked about a bit was the flexibility, and Manawa's hydro schemes provide flexibility, all types of flexibility. Some do more run-of-river, that provides, you know, daily and weekly flexibility in the same way that the Clyde and Roxburgh Dam do for Contact. Others, like Cobb, Waipori, can store water for many months in the same way that the Hāwea Dam does for Contact. With the role of thermal generation reducing, in part due to the decline of domestic natural gas, this flexibility is key to supporting the energy transition and the build of the intermittent renewable pipeline, allowing volume to be firmed and sold to customers as renewable, sorry, reliable, fixed price contracts.
It's a unique opportunity to acquire this renewable flexibility into our portfolio, with its ability to store fuel, not just in the short term, but in the long term as well. While we have identified NZD 10 million-NZD 20 million of portfolio benefits from this combination of our hydro assets, we believe there are additional flexibility benefits over and above this that can be unlocked.
Just moving to the next slide and building on that point, with the new combination, Contact will have a more diversified generation portfolio, which as both Dorian and I have reiterated, is underpinned by complementary hydro assets across the North and South Island. This, in turn, is expected to reduce our reliance on thermal peaking going forward and increases our renewable generation to over 10 TWh . The impact is that Contact's average renewable contribution increases 2%- 94%, and Contact's share of hydro storage capacity increases from 7%- 11% nationally. The combination with Manawa aligns very much with our Contact26 strategy, which we've been talking about consistently for the last three to four years, allowing Contact to accelerate its renewable generation growth and portfolio decarbonization.
Importantly, the combined portfolio increases Contact's ability to provide a higher volume of fixed price supply agreements or hedging products, helping in turn to support the broader energy market. Accelerating Contact Energy's renewable generation strategy aligns with Contact's decarbonization lead. It's good to be home brand proposition. As I talked about earlier, the combination also significantly increases Contact's renewable development pipeline and provides immediate consented development options. Post-combination, Contact will boast a diversified development pipeline of around 10 TWh in wind and solar, together with over a terawatt hour of remaining consented geothermal. Solar under development will increase from 2 TWH- 3 TWh , while wind under development increased significantly from 4 TWh-7 TWh , including the Kaiwaikawe and Kaihuku developments, for which consenting is already underway.
Contact can advance the highest value development of project options from attractive and diversified combined development pipeline. But this is not just about assets. The combination also enhances Contact's in-house capabilities, both in the management of geographically diverse hydro generation and in wind development, where Manawa brings particular expertise. There are balance sheet and scale efficiency, including cost of capital benefits, and these are expected to support the financing of new development.
Thanks, Mike. So I'll just start on the financial impact. So the combination is financially compelling, with the benefits being captured across four buckets, which I'll just talk you through. So there is significant embedded value in Manawa, which will be realized as the PPA volumes reprice to the market based on the contract. This starts to happen, as I said earlier, in October 2024, as the volumes start to roll off the PPA, and by October 2026, volumes will link to market, all volumes will link to market pricing, as the remaining PPA volumes adjust from a fixed price to a market-linked price. If the volumes reprice to our long-term view of pricing, of NZD 120 real, in 2022 terms, you get an uplift to the EBITDA of NZD 21 million.
As you will all be aware, the ASX curve is considerably above NZD 120, going out to 2027. For every NZD 5 per megawatt hour extra you get over and above NZD 120, that's an additional NZD 10 million of EBITDA per year, which is quite significant. We also expect Manawa's hydro generation to increase by 90 GWh from FY 2024 levels, with the return to normal hydrology and the completion of the Asset Enhancement Program, which is already a third of the way through and delivering value. Whenever you get two similar businesses like this, operating in a similar market, combining their duplication cost synergies, normally the bottleneck with fast and effective delivery is complications associated with the integration of the systems.
In the electricity industry, the complicated systems sit with the retail businesses, and since Manawa doesn't have a retail business, it means the implementation of the cost synergies will be far simpler. The portfolio benefits come from more reliable hydro inflows of the combined businesses, meaning that 200 GWh-300 GWh of extra fixed price sales can be made to customers every year relative to what the two standalone businesses could do. This reduces the combined businesses' exposure to the spot market and low prices in wet years. This means on average, across all hydro sequences, EBITDA will be NZD 10 million-NZD 20 million per year higher. There are also a whole heap of other benefits, which we haven't quantified on the slide, but they are very real.
So overall, the combination benefits being talked through today are balanced with an opportunity for upside. This then all translates positively into financial KPIs, with shareholders seeing higher dividends than they would see relative to a standalone Contact. Across a wide range of financial metrics, the transaction is accretive on a per-share basis, and the compelling combination benefits mean the IRR of the transaction exceeds the Contact WACC, even though the business that is being acquired is lower risk, and that is reflected in S&P analysts that have got a lower WACC for Manawa than they have for Contact. Ultimately, we'd expect cost of capital benefits reflecting the greater earning stability of the combined business and less exposure to thermal fuel.
This chart demonstrates the movement from Manawa's reported EBITDA for FY 2024 to our normalized view, which reflects the embedded value of repricing of those sales volumes to the market, which should just naturally happen. Hydro volumes returning to mean levels, which again, should naturally happen, and the completion of the Asset Enhancement Program. Also, you have the overlay of the relatively low risk duplication cost synergies, and then you have the portfolio benefits that we've talked about, which don't need to be implemented, they just naturally happen due to the complementary nature of the hydro assets. So this gives a normalized view of EBITDA of NZD 218 million, which we believe better reflects the underlying value of the business combined with Contact.
So that means long-life, flexible hydro assets are being acquired for 10.7 times EBITDA on this basis, which is financially very compelling in our view. It is also worth considering that over the last few years, the cost of building renewables has increased, but the valuation of Manawa has reduced, making the proposition of acquiring established renewable assets very attractive. There is NZD 23 million-NZD 28 million of value from a range of cost efficiencies. As you'd expect from a combination of this nature, they largely come from the duplication of systems and people. There is very little change to operational areas due to the need to continue to operate the asset and trade. The timing of delivery of the cost synergy is fast, with 70% happening within the first six months after completion, and full delivery within 24 months.
This reflects my earlier comment, that as Manawa has no retail business with the associated complicated systems, it makes the integration process far simpler, and we can go faster. There are synergy integration costs of NZD 44 million, with this relating to systems, people changes, and program management. There are also NZD 2 million per year of financial synergies, which I haven't covered on the slide, because they fall outside of EBITDA, but they're still very real. These are simply that the combined business doesn't need any extra liquidity over and above what Contact had already, because it's a less risky business. Therefore, we don't need the NZD 2 million a year that covers the undrawn bank facilities that Manawa has.
It's important to say that Manawa's got some great people, who will be important to the realization of the combination benefits, and we are keen for them to be part of the business going forward, ensuring that the combined business is the best that it can be. So we have supported retention to help with this. We think about this combination over three horizons. So the first horizon covers FY 2025 to 2026, and it's about combining the two businesses, with the completion of the transaction expected in the second half of FY 2025. We want to work efficiently and effectively, to minimize uncertainty for people, and get into the final operating structures as quickly as possible. Horizon two is all about delivery.
By the time we get to the end of horizon two, which is the end of FY 2027, we'd expect all the cost synergies to be delivered, along with the portfolio benefits and the embedded value from the existing PPA volumes repricing to market. The Asset Enhancement Program will be largely complete, with mean year hydro generation from Manawa's existing assets expected to be 1,991 GWh . Horizon three then really starts to get into the delivery of longer term benefits from the development opportunities and the capital flexibility. And this is where we see the acceleration of renewable development relative to what the two independent businesses would have achieved.
So that our shareholders share in the value from the combination, we also plan to step up our dividends by NZD 0.02-NZD 0.03 over the first two horizons, with the first increase in FY 2026. This reflects the nature of these benefits available, meaning we can be confident in the delivery of them, and it also reflects that the combined business is less risky, meaning dividends can be held higher in the operating free cash flow range. The combination, the consideration, sorry, is paid as a combination of scrip and cash. The scrip based transaction structure has been designed deliberately to ensure that Contact maintains the capital flexibility needed to develop the combined pipeline and maintain its S&P Triple-B credit rating.
The structure also enables Manawa shareholders to retain exposure to the New Zealand electricity sector and share in the future value of the combination. Manawa shareholders will receive their consideration for each of their shares in the form of NZD 4.79 of scrip, which is roughly 57% of a Contact share, and NZD 1.16 of cash. There are some consideration adjustments for dividends on a go-forward basis, with cash consideration reducing for any dividend Manawa pays between now and completion, and scrip consideration increasing for any Contact dividend with an ex-date between now and completion. The cash consideration is NZD 363 million, and we will also refinance the NZD 452 million of Manawa's existing debt. This will all be financed by a bank facility, which has already been secured.
Whilst this causes our net debt to EBITDA to go temporarily above three times, on a spot basis, it will quickly drop it back down below three, and we expect S&P to reaffirm our Triple-B credit rating with a stable outlook. The dividend profile is enhanced due to greater generation and cash flow stability from the combination. This enhancement is prior to the full realization of the combination benefits, reflecting the nature of these benefits and our confidence in delivery. With the dividend increasing two to three cents in the period FY 2026, FY 2027, this means we can expect the FY 2027 dividend to be NZD 0.41-NZD 0.42 per share.
That's an increase of up to 8% by FY 2027, relative to a standalone Contact, and that is purely being driven by the combination benefits of the acquisition. It supplements the 4 cents per share increase already announced, from NZD 35-NZD 39 a share, reflecting the Tiwai deal and Tauhara being online. What that means is, from the period FY 2023 through to FY 2027, dividend per share is expected to go up to 20%. Contact's dividend policy is to pay out 80%-100% of the average operating free cash flow of the previous four years.
However, as the historic cash flow won't capture Manawa's cash flow, the board will need to apply discretion in the first few years, so that the policy doesn't constrain us on our ability to deliver the expected dividends. Regarding the dividend reinvestment plan for the final FY 2024 dividends and the new information about Contact's acquisition of Manawa to ensure fairness, the board have modified the DRP program to allow shareholders to reelect their DRP preference to opt in or opt out.... Just a reminder, the DRP strike price has already been set in NZD. It's NZD 8.2352. Then on the transaction price. So the transaction will be achieved through a scheme of arrangement.
It has the normal conditions that a transaction of this nature would have, including a requirement for Commerce Commission approval. Transaction doesn't require OIO approval. The two major shareholders, who collectively own 77.9% of Manawa, have entered into voting agreements which, subject to some conditions being met, have committed them to vote in favor of the scheme. We expect Infratil to own around 9.5%, and TECT to own just under 5% of Contact. For continuity and to support the integration, it is intended that Manawa's chair, Deion Campbell, will join the Contact board, and more generally, he's a very experienced director and ex-energy industry executive and will be a valuable addition to the team. Just in terms of timeline, we're expecting the scheme implementation in the first half of 2025.
As you can imagine, the timeline is largely a function of the Commerce Commission clearance application process, and for that reason, the draft application was lodged today to get that process moving.
Right. Thank you for that, Dorian. And in summary, we both are very excited to be announcing this combination with Manawa today, to create a more diversified, resilient, and efficient Contact business. This business will be well-positioned to deliver renewable development opportunities going forward, and support New Zealand's energy transition. The scrip-based transaction structure has specifically been designed to ensure Contact maintains the capital flexibility to deliver its development pipeline, while retaining its Triple-B credit rating. The structure also enables Manawa shareholders, as they stand today, to retain exposure to New Zealand's electricity sector and share in those future combination benefits.
We are looking forward to having the opportunity to partner with the Manawa team, to unlock the significant value within Manawa's existing hydro asset base and its strategic development pipeline, and working together with them to realize significant synergies between the two businesses, its assets, and its people. And with that, I would like to close and open for questions. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now begin the Q&A session. As a reminder, to ask a question, please select the Raise Hand button at the bottom of your Zoom screen to be placed in the queue. After you are announced, please unmute yourself, state your name and company, and ask your question. If you find that your question has already been answered before it is your turn to speak, please press the Lower Hand button to leave the queue. Our first question comes from Vignesh. Vignesh, please go ahead and ask your question.
Good afternoon, Mike and Dorian. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can.
Yep.
Awesome. Congratulations on the deal. Seems like an immense amount of work from the team. Three questions from me this morning, this afternoon. Firstly, can you talk a little bit about, at a high level, perhaps, the challenges or the required changes, you know, from a human capital and also generation control systems perspective, as you kind of transition from operating a handful of very large generation assets to a very long tail of smaller and more remote hydro assets?
Yeah. So obviously, that, that transition is top of mind. Remember, Manawa is very successfully operating those hydro, the 25 hydro schemes today, and we don't see, given the due diligence we've done, any particular problem with integrating the two control systems, remembering that Manawa operates its trading desk and control, centralized control out of Tauranga at the moment.
The other thing I'd add to that, they've in the middle of, or have undertaken a rigorous review of their asset, which has culminated in their Asset Enhancement Program, which they're in the middle of as well. So as you can imagine, there was a lot of deep due diligence done on this area. We've got a high quality hydro team, and they were involved in the DD, and actually were very saw very positive things around the quality of the people around those hydro assets.
Okay, understood. Secondly, just on the valuation, sort of after accounting for the synergies post-deal, sort of implies an EV, but that's at 10.7 times, which is, you know, broadly in line with how Contact currently trades at its one-year forward multiple. For Contact shareholders then, where does the actual additional incremental value sit in the deal? You know, maybe the way to answer this is, where do you think you've been conservative on potential benefits post-integration across the two businesses?
You want me to start?
Yeah, start on that one.
Well, we'll get into the conservatism in effect. I mean, the one thing I would say, what I said at the start is, Manawa is actually fundamentally a different type of business from Contact. It's got... It's purely generation, long life assets, but I said it's more infrastructure-like, like, in nature. Contact's obviously got a retail business, it's got thermal assets, it's got, you know, geothermal assets, which need to be replaced. So, the fact that after what we consider, you know, just embedded value, delivery, and, you know, some relatively low-cost energies, you can get to a business that's got the same multiple as Contact does as of the moment, we think is quite positive, and that's where the value lies.
You're getting a lower risk business added to Contact's portfolio, and that'll be very valuable ultimately to Contact shareholders. As you'd expect, there are lots of different areas where there are potential value upsides here. You know, we can talk about, you know, the ability to build out additional development opportunities that we can do that we couldn't have done without this. I think there's also, you probably- I don't know if you were at the Meridian Investor Day, I expect you were, but they were talking a lot about the value of flexibility and how ultimately that's gonna start to see the generated weighted price of flexible hydro going up relative to sort of base load prices.
And as we know, Manawa has got some flexible hydro assets that we haven't factored any of that sort of stuff into our analysis, either at this stage or valuation like that at this stage. So we think the overall deal is, you know, it's both fair and reasonable for existing Manawa shareholders, but we also think it's a very positive deal for Contact shareholders, too.
Okay. That's, that's very clear. And finally, I suppose, just looking at the timeline, provided the transaction is completed in the first half of calendar year 2025, is it fair to assume a two-year kind of integration and synergy realization process? Sort of implying, you know, FY 2028 being the first year where you, where you expect to see the full, normalized EBITDA of NZD 220 million being added to the business?
Yeah, that's very much covered. Dorian covered that on slide 26, where we see 75% of the benefits being delivered within six months of completion.
Yeah.
And then another eighteen months to complete the full delivery with the, you know, the more complex system integration and the like.
I don't want to rock my own boat here, Vignesh, but based on where the ASX is, I'd like to see us actually outperform that in the next sort of three or four years, because the ASX curve is considerably higher than that NZD 120, which means that embedded value is even higher in the short term relative to the long term.
Okay. That's, that's very clear. That's all from me. Congratulations once again.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Grant. Grant, please go ahead and ask your question.
Good morning, team, from monsoony Vietnam. First question: You've got, you're buying a very poorly priced Manawa asset, and you're benchmarking it against an undervalued Contact asset. How does your chair think about the outlook that you guys gave with your strategy there a few years ago for mid-sixty cash flow per share for the shareholder Contact that's been patiently waiting for that, relative to a dividend of NZD 0.39? And are you diluting that? Can you talk to those two issues a little bit, please?
No, the intent is certainly over the medium long term, not to dilute, but to strengthen our case towards getting towards that Grant.
Yeah. This, you see, if you're looking at operating free cash flow per share in the first few years, there's a little bit of a dilution, as you expect with a control premium being paid. But also you've got a slightly higher elevated spend with CapEx for Manawa with their Asset Enhancement Program, so that's all so everyone knows about that. And then after sort of the first two or three years, it's up in line with Contact. Then you're in this situation where you're comparing. You've got an operating free cash flow per share comparable with Contact, but it's obviously low risk because it's infrastructure in nature. It doesn't have any assets needing to be replaced in the near term, like by Contact.
So there's nothing in this deal that takes away from anything that we previously said. In fact, we see it as being additional.
Okay. Then a follow-up question on, you, Mike, spoke about that, your debt is three times, and that you still have the ability to build out this huge pipeline. I just don't see that without an equity raise now that you've gone and diluted your debt a little bit, well, increased your debt a little bit. Can you talk about-
So the-
How you actually build the pipeline now?
Yeah. So we've taken a conservative approach and actually consulted with S&P prior to the transaction taking place, and they've reinforced the Triple-B rating. So the debt capacity at the moment enables us to build out certainly the geothermal, the battery, and the solar, which is already underway. Remember, our solar opportunities are off balance sheet, non-recourse project finance SPVs. And then the broader question will be as and when we come to wind, is how we achieve that, and there's a whole range of balance sheet options available to us on that.
We have an increased equity base as well, and we continue to keep the DRP going as well, which will get more capital reinvested back, well, hopefully, through that as well, Grant, that helps, so we are, we're comfortable that we can continue to build with this, with the structure that we've got.
Okay. Well, thanks. Thanks for answering those questions.
Enjoy your holiday.
Thank you.
Our next-
Don't bring back any rain.
Our next question comes from Andrew. Andrew, if you'd like to unmute yourself to ask a question.
Good afternoon, Mike and Dorian. A few questions from me. First question is just a simple clarification or confirmation, really. I take it, I understand there's no escrow period for Infratil or TECT?
That's correct. That's correct.
Thank you. Next question is just, I guess, around the timeframes, and obviously the Commerce Commission process is gonna be the critical one here. Have you sort of had engagement with them around that at this point? And then I just, have they given any indication that we've got an interplay with, I guess, some of the government reviews into the electricity sector and how that might interplay through this?
... Oh, look, there's always chatter about that. The Commerce Commission has a very clear legal mandate to assess this in terms of market efficiency and competition, and whatever the retail politics was playing out at the time, I specifically have no remit to go there. Of course, we haven't engaged with the Commerce Commission prior to this, because one of the features of this, today's announcement, is that it has been kept very confidential, which has been key to delivering value for shareholders, so we're looking forward to engaging with the Commerce Commission, and we wouldn't be announcing today that we didn't have a high degree of confidence that we would come through that process.
Right. And follow up on that is, I think, you indicate there's the scheme must be satisfied within nine months, subject to limited extensions in certain circumstances. I assume that-
Yeah. Yep.
- the Commerce Commission process is, one of those circumstances.
The Commerce Commission process is the key driver of that, yes.
Yeah, we get, if the Commerce Commission clearance came through right at the end of the period, we can get an automatic extension of fifteen days to deal with the court and votes and things like that, to finish off the transaction. And then if we want to extend it beyond nine months, we can do that through mutual agreement. And our expectation was, if we were looking good on the Commerce Commission, it's just taking them a little bit longer, that we would be able to mutually agree that.
Yep. Great. Next question I just had was just around the cost synergy side of things, and NZD 23-NZD 28 million is roughly, I guess, not far from 23%-28% of the cost base.
Yeah.
Just trying to get, I guess, a bit of comfort around the amount of due diligence you've done on that and the achievability of that.
Look, so we have done extensive due diligence on it, and a significant number of the gains through the IT, for instance, IT systems rationalization. There's obviously further savings in the rationalization across the corporate services, and it's fair to say that I think it's a conservative estimate. So in the same way, we want to go, we'd like to see those benefits sooner. I think as we get together with the Manawa team, we'll unearth further opportunities. Do you want to answer anything?
Yeah, that, that's a rigorous DD, as you'd expect, Andrew, and, these would be your typical duplication synergies, which are sort of the lowest execution risk of any synergies. Doesn't mean we don't take that, we're taking it lightly. We will absolutely execute on this stuff, align to business pace, deliver the value.
I think, Andrew, just to highlight there, we do have the lowest operating costs in the business, and we're very proud of that, and we protect that, and we look forward to continuing that.
Yeah.
Excellent. Thanks very much. That's all from me.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Steven. Steven, please go ahead and unmute yourself to ask your question.
Hi, Mike. Hi, Dorian. How are you?
Hello .
Just on the fourth bucket that you talked about, Dorian, and you noting the potential, I think, for the peaking factor for Manawa's hydro schemes to improve over time. You obviously noted Meridian's strategy day discussion around Waitaki, you know, looked like.
Yeah.
They're predicting a 30% uplift over the next thirty years, which is colossally large. At the same time, they're, you know, the peaking factor for the majority of their assets, including Manapōuri, are at best holding, and in some cases, they've sold or declining by a similar amount. You know, could we see the same thing across this portfolios, given the nature of, of their hydro schemes?
Well, not quite. They don't have quite the same amount of flexibility as, say, Meridian, has, but they've certainly got some. And we absolutely agree. I mean, we've been talking about this, Stephen, for quite some time, around the value of flexibility. You know, we have a view that what's going to happen is, the intermittent renewables will tend towards a sort of WACC-like return. But wind, in the long run, solar, will probably just become uneconomic because of the quality of the resource in New Zealand.
But what that means is, because you've still got that base load price of NZD 120 real that we talk about, which is required to encourage, you know, businesses to invest, that the gap between that lower GWAP that's being achieved on intermittent renewables and that base load, NZD 120 real, is just covered by flexibility, and that's just the increased value of renewable flexibility. And that's, you know, that's one of the attractions of this. And what it allows us to do is then couple that with building more intermittent renewables and bring them to market, firm them, and then sell them to customers who are looking for firmed electricity. So absolutely agree with that, but not quite, unfortunately, not quite to the same degree that Meridian's got.
Yeah, that's useful. Just on your thermal output share, I think you're ticking up by about 200 basis points. Can you... Sorry, this should be something that I'm lecturing you on, but can you just remind us what the thresholds are for their CSG shareholders that you understand?
I think they normally talk about sort of, if you've got 95% renewable, 5% thermal, so we're getting very close.
We're very close to that now.
Yeah.
... and just two more quick ones. Your gearing target under your current credit rating, I mean, obviously, lower volatility generation and cash flows is an important theme in your presentation. You know, to what extent might your debt providers, you know, view that lower volatility favorably as well, and translate that through into, you know, higher debt allowance, I suppose, for a given credit rating?
It's more... Yeah, this is more of an S&P type question. What I'd say here, I mean, if you look back at the history of Contact, it's probably been above three times more than it's been below. S&P have always been comfortable with that, so long as you don't surprise them, and as long as you've got a path to get back below three. Where Contact has historically been above three times, it's been in a market where the aluminum smelter has had a one-year termination on the contract, and therefore, a lot more market risk. We're now in a situation where my view is that the market risk is probably some of the lowest that it's ever been, because we've got a long-term Tiwai deal in place.
So, we still don't wanna go above three. But our view is S&P wouldn't have any problem if we did, for a short period of time, and we didn't surprise them with it, and we had the ability to get back or a plan to get back below it. So I suspect there will be some flexibility.
There is flexibility and potential upside, but we're always gonna have to take a very conservative approach to this, because remember, this is two independent companies coming together. We don't have a cornerstone shareholder or a 51% shareholder. We need to be prudent, and we just need to be smart about how we manage this.
Remember, we're bigger as well, so we have more ability to do capital bond this year as well.
Thank you. And just one last quick one. You don't need OIO approval, and-
Obviously, you're rather unique in the sense that you can issue shares. You know, to what extent do you think that sort of played into your hands in this transaction?
Yeah.
Sorry, both of those factors.
Yeah, I think that that's been critical. There are some unique synergies, but we don't require OIO. We, we are both Kiwi companies, and the fact is we've Dorian and I have talked repeatedly over the last four years about the balance sheet flexibility options that we have. And so all of those factors were absolutely critical to making this deal happen. But noting also, that Manawa shareholders are coming on board as Contact shareholders, which is a remarkable vote of confidence in parts of the company as well.
That's useful. Thanks, gents.
Thanks, Steven.
Just to remind the audience, if you would like to ask a question, please use the Raise Hand button, which can be found at the bottom of your Zoom screen. It looks like we have a follow-up question from Andrew. Andrew, if you'd like to go ahead and unmute yourself to ask your question.
Sorry, I think that was a mistake.
No problem. Thanks, Andrew. As we have no questions for the moment, I'll hand back to the Contact Energy team for any final remarks.
Look, I need to reiterate, we think this is a fantastic combination for investors, but we also think it's good for the market, and it's good for the country in allowing the acceleration of renewable development. It's not just about assets, it's also about the people that will come together, and the execution capability that will result from that combination. So looking very much forward to the completion of the deal sooner rather than later. Thank you.
Thanks, everyone.
Thank you.
Goodbye.