Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited (NZE:CHI)
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May 5, 2026, 5:01 PM NZST
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Earnings Call: H1 2023

Aug 22, 2023

Operator

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Channel Infrastructure Half Year Results briefing. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Rob Buchanan, CEO. Please go ahead.

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'm delighted to be delivering my first set of financial results for Channel as Chief Executive. I'm joined here today by Denise Jensen, who stepped into the Interim Chief Financial Officer role in June. Today, I'll speak to the presentation we disclosed on the NZX this morning. Before we begin, I just draw your attention to the usual disclaimer on slide 2 of that presentation. Moving through to slide 4. It's been an exciting and busy period here at Channel. I'm incredibly proud of all the team have achieved.

Slide 4 outlines some of the key highlights, in short, we have delivered yet another strong financial result, continued to successfully execute on our strategy, making significant progress on our 2023 priorities, announced a NZD 0.042 per share interim dividend, and we have today upgraded our full-year guidance. While we have delivered on our strategy, we also continue to work on growth opportunities for the business, including moving to pre-feasibility phase for the e-SAF project and completing FEED or Front-End Engineering and Design for new diesel storage tanks, which will position us to tender for the Government Strategic Storage Initiative, already passed into law. First, I'd like to talk about safety on slide 5. Safety remains a core value and something everyone at Marsden Point lives by. During the 6 months, we had no lost time incidents.

We did have one recordable incident and one Tier 1 process safety incident resulting from corrosion of an ex-refinery product line, and we've made the necessary process improvements by updating our inspection and maintenance schedules to address this risk going forward. As part of our annual and internal audit of management systems, we hosted Australian Terminal Operations Management, or ATOM, to conduct a peer review of our compliance and safety management systems as an import terminal. This involved extensive engagement with staff across all aspects of safety and compliance. With a focus on continuous improvement and simplification of terminal operations, systems, and processes, I'm pleased to say that overall, they were impressed with the site safety culture and the progress the Channel team has made in the 15 months since transitioning to import terminal operations. Moving to slide six.

Channel continues to invest in its environmental scorecard, and the significant improvement in our emissions profile since conversion to import terminal operations last year is made clear in this analysis of NZX 50 companies. Previously, we were sitting at the top as one of the larger emitters. Today, we account for less than 0.1% of the NZX 50 Scope 1 and 2 emissions that we've been able to measure. Our new renewable electricity contract commences next year, and sourcing all our electricity from renewable sources would mean we have largely eliminated the company's Scope 1 and 2 emissions, 6 years ahead of the target we set ourselves. As a Climate Reporting Entity, we are preparing for the mandatory reporting of Scope 3 emissions in accordance with the Aotearoa New Zealand Climate Standards from 2024 onwards.

As everyone is well aware, New Zealand has seen some unusual and extreme weather this year. Up at Marsden Point, we experienced similar rainfall as Auckland did in January's flooding events. We also had a direct hit from Cyclone Gabrielle in February. Our staff, site, and assets handled both events well, with limited damage to our site and infrastructure, which is a testament to the strong resilience in our operations. Of particular note, we have invested circa NZD 25 million in the last 10 years to improve wastewater collection and treatment systems, which has proven well worthwhile given the increasingly severe weather we've been experiencing. We turn to slide 7. Shareholders may have noticed in our latest quarterly update, we've started to report throughput by fuel type on a quarterly basis, so none of these numbers will be new to you as we reported them in mid-July.

As a reminder, we've seen a continued recovery in fuel demand, with total volumes across our pipeline and truck loading facility up some 7% on the second half of 2022. Jet fuel is up 30% on H2 2022 and reflecting the continued strong recovery in jet fuel. It's pleasing to see jet fuel volumes back at some 76% of pre-COVID levels. Diesel and petrol are relatively stable, down a combined 2% on H2 2022. At our full-year results in February, we disclosed in Envisory, previously known as Hale and Twomey, updated long-term fuel outlook. This outlook provided us detailed bottom-up modeling projections for fuel going out to 2050. The outlook showed faster jet fuel demand recovery with higher jet demand over the long term.

The actual volumes for the first half of the year are tracking in line with their outlook, with volumes at 50% of the full year projection. Moving to slide 8. We do expect jet fuel volumes to continue to ramp up during the second half of this year, as is nicely demonstrated on this slide. You would all have seen a lot of announcements and media coverage around more long and ultra-long haul routes opening up out of New Zealand post-COVID. We are seeing air travel return strongly, and we've highlighted some examples on this map of the airlines that have announced additional services to New Zealand, many of which commence or ramp up in our second half.

These announced routes align to our fuel outlook and are encouraging, as aviation is going to drive the future of our business, given our critical role as a supply route for jet to New Zealand's gateway at Auckland International Airport. Let's now look at our progress on the conversion and private storage on Slide nine. Over the last few years, New Zealand has faced supply and labor shortages, ongoing inflationary pressures, and of late, extreme weather events. I'm incredibly proud of how the Channel team has responded to these challenges to keep the conversion project on track. Up to June 30, we had spent some NZD 174 million. The total terminal and private storage conversion budget was circa 80% of the budget spent or committed.

The conversion project is a multi-year project. We remain within the NZD 200 million-NZD 220 million budget originally set in 2021, including unallocated contingency, which has been retained in light of the inflationary environment in which this multi-year project is being delivered. The commissioning of the jet private storage has had its unique challenges with the extreme weather events and some 200% higher than normal rainfall over the last 6 months. The final 45 million liters of private storage is due to be commissioned in Q3. This will more than double the jet fuel storage that we have at Marsden Point, significantly adding to New Zealand's overall fuel resilience. Annual revenue from private storage will be at a full run rate of circa NZD 9 million in 2021 real terms from 2024. Moving to Slide 10.

As we mentioned, the conversion projects are substantially complete, and the project is largely de-risked due to the majority of the budget being either spent or committed. You can see this on the charts on this slide. The permanent decommissioning of the refinery plant is now complete. There is now no way to restart the refinery, and there has not been since it was permanently shut down in March last year ahead of the conversion to the import terminal. As shareholders will be aware, we are now focused on extracting value from these decommissioned assets through our ongoing asset sales process, which I'll touch on a bit later. In addition, the workforce transition is now also substantially complete.

As a business, our focus is now firmly on the terminal upgrades projects and finishing the private storage conversions to enhance the overall resiliency of our operations, as well as New Zealand's fuel supply chain. We will continue to work on the terminal upgrade projects through to 2027. I will now hand over to Denise to take us through the financials.

Denise Jensen
Interim CFO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Thanks, Rob. Good morning, everybody. Look, it's been great to be back at Channel as interim CFO, and I'm pleased to present such a strong set of results, which really continues to demonstrate the improved financial profile and health of the new business model. Let's start on Slide 12 of the pack and look at the financial highlights. The results are a little tricky to talk to, as the prior comparative period only includes one quarter of import terminal operations, and therefore we aren't comparing apples with apples. To really highlight the moving parts and get a true reflection of what is going on behind the numbers, for the most part, I'll compare the current news results to the second half of 2022 rather than the first half.

In summary, we've delivered a strong set of results, and to touch on some of the highlights, net profit after tax is up 32% from the second half of 2022. EBITDA margins continue to grow, up 3% to 68%, and normalized free cash flow is up 21% to NZD 34 million. As Rob has already mentioned, the board has declared a fully included dividend of NZD 0.042 per share, consistent with our dividend policy. Today, we're pleased to announce that we have, for the second time, increased EBITDA and dividend guidance for the full year. Now let's dive into some detail and turn to Slide 13. Let's start by taking a closer look at the P&L.

Revenue increased by NZD 6 million from the second half of 2022, with the NZD 3 million impact of the PPI estimation and the benefit of around 55 million liters of private storage being online for the full 6 months of 2023. This contributes a further NZD 3 million. With tight cost control being exercised over our OpEx budget, which was broadly flat on the second half of last year, we saw the uplift in revenue flow through straight to EBITDA and our EBITDA margin, which increased 3% to 68%. Please turn to Slide 14. Our total revenue, the vast majority of which is underpinned by our take-or-pay commitments, grew NZD 6 million from the second half of 2022 to NZD 64.4 million in the first half of this year.

The bar chart at the bottom of the page highlights where the main increases came from. Our 2023 revenue benefited from a PPI adjustment of 6.3%, which applied to all of our terminal revenue contracts. We will continue to see the benefit of this in the second half of the year. Some of you would have seen the current PPI numbers are tracking at around 1.3% for the first nine months. We won't get the full year final number that will impact 2024 revenue until November of this year, so there's still some water to go under the bridge. You will see that we ended the half year ever so slightly above the take-or-pay level for the first six months of the year. It really is too early to pick where we will end up for the full year.

This is because there are several moving parts, and the revenue, the variable revenue portion is dependent on how our customers utilize all of our assets where there is a separate charge, wharfage, tankage, and pipeline, as well as the split of volumes between the Auckland, Northland, and Waikato markets. Turning now to Slide 15. We set ourselves a tight budget this year, and we've done incredibly well to keep costs flat period on period, to maintain our 2023 guidance range. This is a fantastic achievement, considering that it's our first year of operating as a terminal in an inflationary environment, and given the unusual weather patterns we've encountered this year. We've embedded a culture and discipline around tight cost control, and I'm personally very proud of this. We're also working hard to reduce costs wherever possible and to provide cost certainty.

In July, we announced our new long-term electricity supply contract. On top of the estimated NZD 2 million per annum savings we will get from this contract against our 2023 contracted supply price, it is important to note that the real beauty is the structure of the contract. As a fixed price, variable volume contract, it allows us to essentially set and forget, and with electricity costs making up such a large % of our OpEx line, we're not exposed to market disruption or risks associated with unplanned supply outages on spot prices. Importantly, the estimated NZD 2 million electricity supply savings are on top of the estimated NZD 3 million savings on a reset of transmission costs.

We're now focused on resetting our connection costs, and our local lines company, Northpower, has recently made a prudent discount application to Transpower New Zealand based on an inefficient bypass, one of the first such applications made under the new transmission pricing methodology. Now diving into the balance sheet on Slide 16. In line with expectations, net debt is sitting at NZD 295 million at 30th of June, and the waterfall chart on this slide shows what makes up the movement since 31 December 2022. You'll note that we've funded more than 90% of the 2023 conversion costs and CapEx, including growth CapEx, from our strong operating cash flows. Leverage sits at 3.6x, around the middle of our targeted range of 3x-4x. Gearing as at 30th of June was 37%, well within our covenant of 55%.

Turning now to Slide 17 and moving into our debt position. Some 84% of our net debt is fixed, with significant hedge protection in place, including some forward start swaps. We have debt facilities totaling NZD 380 million, with around NZD 82 million of liquidity headroom available. Expected debt will peak at around NZD 30 million-NZD 50 million above the 30th of June 2023 level in the next 6-12 months. As many of you will be aware, our subordinated notes first election date is coming up in March 2024. Planning is well underway with respect to the refinancing options to ensure that we have access to the lowest cost of capital. One of the options being considered is a senior retail bond issue, subject to market conditions, and we'll update the market as we progress our thinking on this.

Now to the guidance on Slide 18. You'll recall that ahead of the transition to the new business model, we provided detailed guidance to the market, outlining what our first year of terminal operations would look like. We upgraded that in November 2022 to reflect the Producer Price Index, new contracting of electricity supply, and additional terminal services revenue, with the latest operating and capital expenditure forecast. Today, we've increased guidance again, and you can see the line-by-line changes here on this table. The increase in EBITDA reflects higher testing volumes at IPL and increased ancillary charges, effectively increased utilization of our marine facilities. Offsetting this slightly, we've tightened the range for operating costs closer to the upper range, which really reflects the impact of the storm events and higher variable costs associated with those increased testing volumes at IPL.

Stay in business CapEx has also slightly increased, reflecting higher costs associated with the tank maintenance program, which was identified through inspection of the specific tanks when they were taken out of service. Now turning to the interim dividend. Shareholders will be aware that we have a very clear capital allocation framework, which we've spoken to for some time now. As part of this framework, we've set our dividend policy payout range to be between 60% and 70% of free cash flows, with a targeted 40/60 split between the interim and final dividend. The board is committed to delivering stable quarterly dividends over time, all while maintaining our credit metrics consistent with a shadow BBB+ investment grade rating. In line with this, our board has declared a fully imputed dividend of NZD 0.042 per share.

As I spoke to on the previous slide, we have lifted our guidance for normalized free cash flow to NZD 59 million-NZD 62 million for full year 2023. If you work through the dividend policy, the implied dividend range has also been increased from NZD 0.09-NZD 0.11 per share to NZD 0.095-NZD 0.115 per share. Thank you. I'll now hand back to Rob.

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Thanks, Denise, for that update, and also for stepping into the CFO role over the last few months. It's been wonderful having such an experienced and capable hand in the business on the interim basis, and Denise has added a significant amount of value to the leadership team and the business during her time here. In July, we announced the appointment of Alexa Preston as our new CFO, who will start around early October. Alexa has more than 20 years experience in senior management, finance, commercial, investment banking, and advisory roles. Most recently, she held the position of Finance Lead Partner, Group Performance and Investor Relations at Spark. We look forward to her joining the team. Moving on to slide 21.

Back in April, the first act following the transition was to set some quite ambitious climate change targets, including goals around our workforce transition, moving to net zero for the company's Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030, and using our infrastructure to support the decarbonization of the transport sector and to facilitate Scope 3 emission reduction by 2030. Finding new employment or the retraining of employees who leave the business through the transition has been a big focus for us at Channel, with an extensive program of support in place. Of the decommissioning and transition-related staff that have exited or are going to exit in 2023, some 89% have already found new jobs or are retraining. We continue to provide support to the remaining staff impacted through the transition of our business.

I've already spoken to how we have made significant progress against our net zero target six years ago plan, so I won't spend any more time on this subject. Let's look at a third target now around how our infrastructure can support the decarbonization of the transport sector and facilitate our customers' Scope 3 emissions reduction. There are a number of long-term growth opportunities available to Channel in this space, but one that has been important this year is the potential to produce e-caf or sustainable aviation fuel at Marsden Point. This slide, we announced a Fortescue Future Industries, or FFI, scoping study for the production of green hydrogen and e-fuel, sustainable aviation fuel, at Marsden Point. We are now progressing to the pre-feasibility stage, and this work is now underway.

The pre-feasibility study will indicate a 300 MW, 60 million liters per year e-SAF production facility at Marsden Point, with the e-SAF to be distributed by an existing Marsden Point to Auckland Airport supply chain. The study will also include analysis of the project's benefits to New Zealand, including the potential provision of large-scale demand response, and the ability to be released to the grid when needed. Important to note that it's still early days, and these types of projects move quickly. During the next phase, we will work with FFI on developing the commercial model for Channel Infrastructure, including how we leverage our strategic gas base available at Marsden Point in our pipeline for this project. Moving on to work with around realizing value from the decommissioned refinery plant.

These assets have been permanently captured and can no longer be utilized at Marsden Point, including for that e-caf project we are looking at. It is right that we are working towards extracting shareholder value from these. At the same time, that could potentially free up space on site for future opportunities, such as the e-caf work I just mentioned. In July, we excitedly announced to the market we have an option agreement in place for the potential sale and eventual removal of parts of the former hydrocracking complex. As well as the non-refundable option payment of $4 million, if Seadra Energy wishes to proceed with the agreement, Channel will receive a further payment of $29.75 million for these specific assets. It's early days, but we are in regular discussions and dialogue with the offer, offering support for their process.

Seadra are planning another site visit soon to further develop the options for deconstruction and removal of the hydrocracking assets. While Seadra are still in the exploratory phase, we expect to be able to provide a progress update early in the new year. We are also actively marketing the other equipment from the refinery and are in discussions with interested parties. If you look at the map on this slide, the import terminal currently uses around one third of the 180 hectare Marsden Point site. We have a large holding of land, which is available for repurposing activities. The current carrying value of the land outside of terminal operations is around NZD 15 million. We see this as significant potential to extract further value from this strategic asset.

To wrap up on slide 23, on the left-hand side of this table on slide 23 are the five priorities we set ourselves for 2023, and on the right, the significant progress we've made against all of them. We've spoken to most of these already today, but maybe worth spending a moment here on the work we're doing to support the resilience of New Zealand's transport fuel supply chain. We are now the largest fuel port terminal in New Zealand, and as Denise said earlier, when the final private storage tanks come online in Q3, we will have doubled the Marsden Point jet storage capacity compared to when we operated as a refinery. However, there remains significant unutilized capacity on our site, with over 400 million liters of potential additional storage capacity available.

As already mentioned, the first policy pillar of the government's Fuel Security Plan is the direct procurement of 70 million liters of diesel, which has already been passed into law. We now await MBIE's release of their RFP, have already proactively completed our field work to support Channel Infrastructure's RFP response in anticipation of any tender process. Turning to the second part of the government's Fuel Security Plan, the minimum fuel stock holding policy is passing through Parliament at the moment, we are working with our customers to determine how we can best support them to be prepared for the policy's implementation from 2025. It makes sense, given our strategic location in the Auckland supply chain and the underutilized tank capacity we have at our site, for us to work with our customers who have responsibility for meeting this policy.

I'm proud of what we've achieved, but there is still much more to come as we continue to focus on the growth opportunities in front of us and work towards our aspiration of being a world-class operator of our terminal assets up here at Marsden Point. We're a bit constrained for time today, and note it's a really busy day for results on the NZX. We do have some time for questions, and I'd like to hand over to the operator to take those questions now.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Andrew Harvey-Green with Forsyth Barr. Please go ahead.

Andrew Harvey-Green
Director and Senior Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Good morning, Rob and Denise. Very, very happy with your results. Well done. A couple of questions from me. Well, more than a couple, actually. First of all, just want to clarify something around the take-or-pay volumes and how that all works. You know, I mentioned that you've, the volumes are above the required level in the first half, but it seemed like that was due to ancillary, services revenue or ancillary charges. Can you just sort of talk through how that works and how much that may have been in the first half, and how much of an impact that had there?

Denise Jensen
Interim CFO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah, sure, Andrew, Denise here. Nice to connect with you again. Look, variable fees, as you know, is kind of made up of a whole lot of different charges. Obviously, storage, it's got pipeline fees in there for fees down into Auckland, truck loading fees, and also other charges like bunkering and wharfage. What we've seen in the first half is that, look, like, while we don't have visibility into our customers' supply chains or where they source product from or what markets, other markets that they're supplying into, they have been delivering smaller parcels at Marsden Point, which has resulted in more frequent shipping and therefore higher wharfage. Probably, you know, we had a bit of a conservative estimate when we put the guidance out based on what we've seen to date.

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah, I'd probably, I'd probably add to that, Andrew, that, you know, we are in the early days of operation of the terminal, and so we make estimates about things like wharfage. We make estimates about how much of our volume goes through the truck loading facility and how much goes through the pipeline, how much of that is destined for the Auckland market, how much is destined for the Waikato market. Obviously, we've been, relatively conservative in the first half as, as things have panned out. Those are things around how our customers choose to interact with the terminal. So those are, those are kind of supply chain choices that they make rather than we make.

Andrew Harvey-Green
Director and Senior Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Yep, no, second question was just around, I guess, the conversion costs and, and how far you, you're through that process. At, at what point can we expect, and I, I noted, you sort of said the provision is, staying where it's at, just given the inflation pressures. Now, at what point can you, sort of be a little bit more definitive around that and, we may or, or hopefully see, some sort of provision release?

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah. Well, look, obviously, we're not talking to any provision release today. What I am focused conscious of is that we are in a high inflation environment, and we've got a number of terminal upgrades to undertake right through to 2027. A significant portion of those are bund upgrades, so they are large civil projects that we need to undertake as part of upgrading the terminal for the next 30 years of operation. But look, give us another 6 months. We're continuous, continuously keeping this under review, and as we move forward and are able to say something, we will do that.

Andrew Harvey-Green
Director and Senior Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Okay, thanks. Next question I had was just around a little bit down through discontinued revenue and costs. Can we expect more of that to come through going forward? I guess there's gonna be the unwind of the discount provision going through finance costs, but is there anything else that we should be expecting down through that? Because I was a little bit surprised at this to see the high levels in this half.

Denise Jensen
Interim CFO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah, no, Andrew, look, it's, it's definitely winding down. I guess, you know, we have got some legacy, like medical schemes for retirees and pension funds, so those costs will continue to track through, but they're not, not significant. Yeah, and as you quite rightly point out, we're kind of going through the financing costs as the unwinding of the provisions, the discount in those provisions.

Andrew Harvey-Green
Director and Senior Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Yep. Yep, okay. Next question I just had was around imputation credits and grants. I guess, I think after this dividend, I'm right in saying there's NZD 0.025 that can be fully imputed with, with the earnings. Is that interpretation correct?

Denise Jensen
Interim CFO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

That's, that's right, Andrew, about that. We have disclosed that in the accounts and in the pack. We've I think we've got about NZD 6.7 total imputation credits at June, and then obviously we're paying out fully imputed NZD 4.2. That's about the right mix.

Andrew Harvey-Green
Director and Senior Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Yep. Yep, great. Last one is just, if you can give us any additional color, on I guess, the further asset sales. I mean, you mentioned you're having ongoing discussions. I'm assuming it sounds like it's gonna be more like a 2024 type, before we get to hear anything. That is similarly, has the government given you any indication of when they might kick off the tender process?

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

So, so I guess answering the, the first part of that question. Look, as we said, we're in discussions with various parties. When we've got something to announce, we'll announce it. As you can imagine, you know, these are not straightforward assets to transact. So, you know, I think the, the model of the Seadra transaction is probably one, you know, that you might see repeated a couple of times, if we are successful in bringing those further deals to completion. On the second point, look, we are in discussions with MBIE and the government, you know, consistently and constantly. You know, I expect that tender to be sort of any week now.

Andrew Harvey-Green
Director and Senior Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Great. Okay, yep. That's all for me. Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from Neville Gluyas with Jarden. Please go ahead.

Neville Gluyas
COO, Jarden

Good morning, team. A number from me as well. Just a question on, first of all, sort of the ongoing nature or not of that sort of same business CapEx rise. The way it's worded, it sounds like it's sort of a one-off thing for FY 2023, not likely to be repeated.

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah, Neville. We haven't guided beyond FY 2023. We'll do that when we put out our FY 2024 guidance. Obviously, you know, we've, we've explained the reason for the CapEx level for these tanks. I think we've previously guided to the market that ongoing maintenance CapEx for the terminal would be between NZD 5 million-NZD 12 million. I don't, I don't have any update to that today.

Neville Gluyas
COO, Jarden

It's really just a clarification of the description there. I wasn't sure if your work in sort of taking that service discovered an ongoing CapEx need or just sort of a bit of additional CapEx.

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

No, that's, that's all-

Neville Gluyas
COO, Jarden

To bring much to it.

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah. That's, that's all maintenance CapEx. That's... Most of our tanks have a 10 or 15-year turnaround, and so those 3 tanks came up this year. Often we don't know till we get in them in terms of the, what the condition of those tanks are, but that's included in that maintenance CapEx number.

Neville Gluyas
COO, Jarden

Great. Okay, that's that's useful. Thank you. And I guess, it, it sounds like there's, there's a bit of room for wiggle here in terms of ancillary revenues. You know, We, we wouldn't be amiss to treat some of these as, as likely continued. You know, is there, is there anything outstanding about this year's behavior, that sort of, you know, might be unusual? Anything about the conditions, that lead to this sort of what look, looks like a, a nice little beat against your previous expectations, for this year's ancillary component?

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah, look, nothing particular to call out, Neville. I think, again, what I'm very conscious of is, you know, our customers choose how to interact with us rather than us making those choices, and it's based on kind of their supply chain needs. So, you know, as we said in our kind of talk earlier, we set an expectation for how we thought that might play out for the year. It's turned out to be conservative and, you know, we'll have to see how it plays out for the rest of the year. But nothing, nothing, kind of that stands out, if, if that's your question.

Neville Gluyas
COO, Jarden

Yeah, that's, that is the question. Thank you. That's, that's clear. Just last one on, along that those lines. connection costs increased, the, the current discount application that Northpower's made. I mean, do you have a rough idea of scale if that worked out? Obviously, that's the future years, but, you know, what, what sort of order of magnitude should we think about for that?

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah, well, look, we've been, we've been going after these things in kind of order of magnitude preference. The first one was the transmission costs, which was a NZD 3 million, or circa NZD 3 million ticket. The next one, the supply costs, which is a NZD 2 million ticket, and the connections costs is sort of the next one, next can off the rank. Hopefully that sort of gives you an indication of direction of potential value there. Look, we're early days on that. Application's gone in. We'll just have to see how it pans out.

Neville Gluyas
COO, Jarden

Yeah, it's useful. Thanks. Just two more from me. Do you have a timeline for your own decision points and for the delivery of the studies between you and FFI on e-SAF?

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah, look, ideally, we'd be looking to work through this next phase of the project over the course of this, of, of the next 12 months. I think from our perspective, you know, the key thing that I think Channel's interested in, and I'm sure our shareholders are interested in, is what the commercial model looks like for us. That's something that we're starting to talk to, talk to Fortescue about. You know, when we've got a, when we've got something agreed, we'll be in a position to come back to you on that.

Neville Gluyas
COO, Jarden

We should think, sort of radio silence, pretty much a year's time, 12 months?

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah. Yeah. These things are, these are pretty long-dated projects and, you know, there's, there's a lot of work to be done around the pre-feasibility phase of this. It's obviously not just the commercial model for us, but actually starting to think about engineering studies and how the project itself might stack up. There's, there's a whole body of work to do in that, and I wouldn't expect an update for a while on it.

Neville Gluyas
COO, Jarden

Great. Thanks. The last one for me, is in relation to the stockholding legislation, and it, it sort of received some tweaks before the second reading, which, you know, it clarified that it would be a monthly average when we talk about the days of storage. Based on that change, I mean, do you have a rough idea of what kind of range of private storage contract requirements might be up at your site?

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Look, look, we do.

Neville Gluyas
COO, Jarden

But-

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah. Yeah. Look, I, I, I think it's fair to say that, you know, we want to have those conversations with our customers first. I think, you know, give us a bit of time to have those conversations. Obviously, the legislation is an important piece of legislation for New Zealand's kind of fuel security, we're, we're very supportive of it. We just need, we just need to work through what that means for our customers first. Unfortunately, nothing to guide you on there today, Nigel.

Neville Gluyas
COO, Jarden

Okay, understand. Thanks a lot.

Operator

The next question comes from Cameron Parker with Craigs Investment Partners. Please go ahead.

Cameron Parker
Analyst, Craigs Investment Partners

Morning, guys. Congratulations on the good results. Just the 2 questions from me. Just the solar project that you've been investigating in the past, if you could just provide a little update on that and some color around the discussions that have unfolded to get you, to get you where you're at now, that'd be great. Also, any information on the coastal hazard management plan that you're investigating, does that, does that suggest... Well, what sort of options are being investigated there, the implications, the materiality of that, any investment required? Thanks, guys.

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah, thanks for those questions, Cam. I think the, the first question on solar, we've spent quite a bit of time working through our options to lower the cost of electricity supplied to the terminal, and I guess that was first and foremost for us, rather than being a solar developer. When we examined all of those options, it was very clear that the cheapest option and the best option was to go to market to get a firmed electricity supply rather than to develop our own solar farm. I think the context, that solar or our terminal would use sort of circa 15%-20% of that solar farm's output. If we did build it, we'd be developing it to sell the energy elsewhere, and clearly, that's not our core business today.

I, I do think it remains a really interesting option for us going forward, in particular, when you start to think about the site repurposing opportunities and projects that might appear on our site, for example, the Fortescue project, which use a lot of electricity. I think, you know, having a solar farm sort of right next to that type of project with a behind-the-meter connection could be really interesting and compelling. As we sit today, the best way to deliver low-cost, reliable electricity supply to the terminal is to go to market. Remains a really interesting option for us, but I think the go forward on it will be related to sort of what we manage to do or develop on our site with our partners.

I think in relation to your second question, yep, we're doing a real body of work around what the implications are for climate change and sea level rise on our site. That work is currently being peer-reviewed at the moment. You know, I guess the executive summary for, for you would be: we had a couple of really significant material meaty weather events up here in January and February, and the site was incredibly resilient to those. We're really pleased with the way that our assets performed and stacked up against what were some, perhaps some pretty, pretty unprecedented weather conditions up here.

In terms of the longer term, that work that's been done, it's not till the, the very, very, very long term that you start to have to make some choices around what you do with with our coastal environment. Probably whilst it's being peer-reviewed, don't have too much more to say on it than that. As I said, I think the, the most immediate and important thing is the site's proved to be incredibly resilient to some of those weather events that have been thrown at us.

Cameron Parker
Analyst, Craigs Investment Partners

Great.

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

I've got time for one more question.

Operator

Again, your last question comes from Darren Manning of Forsyth Barr. Please go ahead.

Darren Manning
Executive Director and Co-Head of Markets, Forsyth Barr

Hi, guys. Just a quick one to finish with Rob. Possibility of a center-right government coming in here. Does that, in your view, have any potential impact on the view on these minimum stockholding requirements? I'm particularly thinking around things like jet fuel, given the ramp up that you've signaled in terms of volume of flights, storage, importance to New Zealand's economy. Any kind of issues in and around that that may play out for you?

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah, I think as it pertains to the, to the political landscape, I think energy resiliency feels like a pretty bipartisan, bipartisan issue. Certainly that, that Minimum Stockholding Obligation bill is still working its way through Parliament. It's featuring on the, some of the items that the current government is trying to get through under urgency before, the, the, the House sort of sits or leaves before the election. Look, I think the commentary that we saw from the select committee process on that particular bill indicated that, you know, once you get the usual, difference of views in some areas, I think there's, you know, generally pretty good support for energy security, which is what that bill is designed to do.

Darren Manning
Executive Director and Co-Head of Markets, Forsyth Barr

Excellent. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very-

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Sorry. We've actually got one more question in the queue, so we'll just take that last question and then close the conference.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from David Oxley with ACC. Please go ahead.

David Oxley
Analyst, ACC

Yeah, thanks, morning, Rob. Just very quickly, on the private storage revenue, you mentioned you'd be at NZD 9 million in FY 2024. Is that the sum total of the private storage revenue we should expect based on current asset base of the company? Is there more still in process of being built? I can't recall whether 9 is as good as it gets.

Denise Jensen
Interim CFO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Yeah. Hi, David, Denise here. The NZD 9 million revenue is for the additional 100 million liters of storage, which was announced, I think, towards the tail end of 2021. Obviously, that is, to that you would need to add the escalation that applied for the current financial year and then any escalator for next year when you determine the revenue from that contract. There was another private storage contract that we have in place, which was announced in November last year, which is currently sort of operational, and that is, I think, recall NZD 25 million over 5 years revenue from that contract.

David Oxley
Analyst, ACC

Right. Does that scale up in 2024, or are we still a little bit away from that hitting the P&L?

Denise Jensen
Interim CFO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Sorry, I didn't quite catch that question, David.

David Oxley
Analyst, ACC

Sorry, does that, does the second 25 over 5 years begin in FY 2024 or, or a bit later?

Denise Jensen
Interim CFO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

That contract's already operational now, David.

David Oxley
Analyst, ACC

Okay.

Denise Jensen
Interim CFO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

That started at the beginning of this year.

David Oxley
Analyst, ACC

FY 2024 private storage will be the 9 plus whatever the second contract contributes.

Denise Jensen
Interim CFO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Correct. Yeah.

David Oxley
Analyst, ACC

Right.

Denise Jensen
Interim CFO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Correct.

David Oxley
Analyst, ACC

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I now hand back to Rob for closing remarks.

Rob Buchanan
CEO, Channel Infrastructure NZ

Thanks, all, and thanks, everybody, for your time today. If we didn't get to your question or something else comes up afterwards, please do contact us directly at investor-

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