Morning all, and welcome to Meridian's quarterly operating results call. May not be as good as an ASM that was held an hour or two ago, but Owen will do the best, and I'll do the best we can. I'm Mike Roan, CFO at Meridian, and as I just mentioned, I've got Owen Hackston with me, who is our Investor Relations Manager. You know, if you've attended this call before, you'll know that this is the regular call where we share some thoughts and insights on the last quarter. We try and do it semi-annually between interim and annual results announcements to add a little bit of flavor to our operating reports. The format's pretty straightforward. As I mentioned, we'll mix and match the commentary on various elements that include climate, hydrology, generation, wholesale prices, electricity consumption, retail, operating costs, capital spend.
We'll try and do it over fifteen minutes or so, and then we'll take some questions, but as it's a general update on our operations, you know, we don't talk to the financials, that said, anyone who's dropping our operating report into their own financial, or Excel spreadsheets or financial algorithms will see that the quarter was reasonably challenging for us, for reasons that either should be obvious already or in fifteen minutes or so, we should have explained why that is obvious. If you do have questions, this is a slightly different format. It's not live, so if you could drop your question and your name into the Q&A as we go, 'cause there's about a twenty-second delay for Owen and I to catch them.
And I'll attend to them at the end of our chat, but right now, I'm gonna hand it over to Owen.
Kia ora, Mike. And as played out with lots of media coverage, New Zealand endured its first deep winter drought in probably close to fifteen years. Through the quarter, we saw record low winter inflows, unseasonably low demand, and draw on water, as gas availability really crunched. And all those things contributed ultimately to national hydro storage, hitting a new record low August level. It was really dry, only until it wasn't. In the last two months, we've seen a remarkable increase in hydro and snow storage conditions. The weather has turned, and unsettled westerly airflows have prevailed over the country, and particularly the South Island, since well into the second half of August. And those weather patterns are what we like. They bring abundant precipitation to the Main Divide of the South Island.
That really means water turns up in hydro lakes. And the remarkable thing through the quarter is those inflows actually balanced out the overall winter rainfall totals, you know, for parts of the country that, up until that point, had looked a whole lot drier than normal. So looking ahead, NIWA's spring outlook suggests quite unsettled and windy weather patterns, particularly in the west. That hints at good fuel supply for us. The other interesting thing in their forecasting is La Niña-like patterns have a better than even chance of developing sort of mid to late spring. And so there's a La Niña Watch in place. Like I said, it's probably fifty/fifty about whether it, as an event, it officially develops by the end of spring.
What seems evident already, I think, is spring temperatures are likely to be above average across most of the country. Rainfall, probably more nearer normal. Maybe a little bit more in the west of the South Island, which again suggests a good outlook for fuel. But reasonably unstable, as you imagine, spring in New Zealand is, you know, fast-moving, low-pressure systems, westerly winds and fronts. Hopefully, there are good days in between there. So look, the theme really for the quarter was, you know, we had winter aridity giving way to significant hydro inflows. You know, and culminating in September, where our catchments saw in excess of 200% of average inflows that month. And again, you know, rather ironically, Q1 inflows this financial year actually topped last year, which back in early August seemed inconceivable.
What we have seen, in particular, is very high inflows into our Waiau catchment, and with its limited storage, that's meant that we've had to clear large volumes of water from there through the wholesale electricity market at low prices. Layering in the combined or the combination of hedge and demand response contracts that we put in place in early August has actually seen Waitaki storage build, and the inflow rate into Pukaki has been slower than the Waiau, and it's only this week that Lake Pukaki has returned to average storage levels for the first time since the start of May, and a quite remarkable change in the depth of the snowpack, too.
So at the start of the quarter, it was around two-thirds of average, and right now it's closer to 120%, so relative to average, it's nearly doubled. Look, a lot's been made of the demand response agreement with NZAS, and at a headline level, that takes the top off demand. So quarterly demand took something like a 3% hit relative to previous year. I think what that contract proves is the value it provides to system security, even if it reduces system demand. And the fact that that's been proven out, you know, within three months of actually signing that agreement, you know, is something, A, we're very proud of, and B, I think very grateful for the support of the smelter in doing that.
And I think more broadly, demand numbers feel soft. You know, the economy seems a bit beaten up at the moment. A lot of leading macroeconomic indicators suggest more to come. So, you know, that's probably filtering down into demand overall. So from a generation perspective, look, despite periods of frustratingly calm winter weather, our quarterly wind volume has actually lifted 40%, largely in part to a fully commissioned Harapaki Wind Farm delivering from the get-go. And hydro, of course, as I've talked about, you know, went the other way. That, however, is the thing with droughts. What it did introduce is a lot of movement in wholesale electricity prices through the quarter. And Mike, I'll pass it back to Mike now, provide a bit more flavor in that. Thanks, Mike.
Hey, thanks, Owen. Nice work. Again, I'll probably not tell anyone, you know, anything they don't already know, but wholesale prices over the quarter were, you know, were incredibly volatile for what we've seen over the last couple of years. And the reason for that, obviously, is the drought that extended, and as that occurred, hydro storage levels fell. And as that occurred, the wholesale prices, wholesale spot prices lifted to about NZD 300-NZD 400 dollar level in the South Island. And then when the gas suspension notices got issued early August, the market moved to dispatching diesel fuel at Whirinaki, as opposed to, you know, the gas-fired units, and the wholesale prices jumped from that level to, you know, NZD 800 bucks a megawatt hour, which is particularly difficult week for any number of people.
But as those Methanex deals were inked, the prices fell back to the NZD 300-NZD 400 dollar range. And then, as Owen noted, as the rain returned late August and the prices collapsed during September, they held well below a NZD 100 dollar levels. And they collapsed, you know, largely because, for the reasons that Owen mentioned. One, there was hydro energy that became available, but two, demand was lower because we'd exercised the NZAS swap option, and three, the Methanex deal had been struck, and so, you know, there was plenty of gas generation available in September that wasn't there in that very challenging week in August. Forward curve and forward prices, so 2025 futures prices were influenced by the events of Q3.
It's always hard to tell why, but I think our view of that is implications for winter twenty-five, given the uncertainty of gas supply. Further out than twenty-five, there wasn't that big an impact to the curve, but average levels did lift. And again, think it's the same reason as we think that people's views on gas supply turned, you know, very bearish during August for obvious reasons. But that decreasing confidence that you see in supply certainty, or put another way, the lack of confidence in supply certainty, that means that New Zealand likely has a increased resilience on, or reliance on coal and hydro reservoirs over the next few years while we look to replace the gas that we expected would be available to the market. And people are doing plenty in that space.
You know, we're looking at all of our reservoirs to see what can be done, and others are looking at the ongoing relationship with Methanex, as well as the capacity for coal handling at our port, so these events they are tricky to navigate. I think the key piece, at no point did we feel there was a risk to secure a supply. What we did see is the wholesale market work to signal the increasing scarcity of resources, and there were responses to that, that ultimately saw us through the challenge that we faced. Through this, you know, our retail team continued to operate as we challenge our retail team to continue to operate, as they would normally during these events, leave them to our wholesale business to manage them.
And so during Q1, we saw reasonably strong growth in customer numbers. So as you would've seen in the operating report, the number of total customer connections lifted by over 8,000 over the quarter. And you would have also picked up that, the comparable quarter to Q1 this year, last year, you see an 8.5% lift in average retail sales prices as well. So growth in customer numbers and sales prices, but as Owen mentioned, balancing those positive attributes is the customer sales volumes in the quarter decreased across all segments. And, you know, it was a mild winter, and then we've both, you know, talked to the impact on, you know, consumption. We saw some of it play out in the press, and...
With the September rain, it means that agricultural irrigation is off to a very slow start, and we saw that in September, so I might jump on to operating costs. You've seen a quarterly lift in operating cost. We'd signaled that at our year-end announcements. You know, the operating costs that you see, they're in line with full year guidance that we provided of NZD 302 million-NZD 308 million. They're probably slightly elevated by provision that we've taken in relation to the changes going on within our retail business, and I might just touch on them quickly here as, you know, we are resetting our retail business, and, you know, that will result in changes.
The rationale for it is absolutely sound, and that we need to provide a new set of products and services to customers as we look to future relationships with them that will increasingly become two-way, not just us selling them the product, but actually buying products from them as well. But you know, to make those changes, they can be painful and will be painful, most likely to people within our business. And so you know, we expect that we will end up reducing the number of people within the business that support the retail operation. And you know, we're going through that change impact as we speak.
So, you know, difficult, uncertain for people, but, you know, we've got the customer at the center of the changes that we're making and the relationships that we do need to manage. But that elevated, you know, operating cost that you would have seen in that quarterly, that quarterly guidance is. I think we're well on track to, you know, deliver to, to that range. So, if I move to CapEx, is full year CapEx guidance, at our, our year-end result was NZD 295 million-NZD 325 million. That included two things. One, it was the completion of the battery, the Ruakaka battery system, the 100-megawatt, 200-megawatt-hour battery. And we did forecast a solar build at the same energy park, the Ruakaka solar build.
We had conviction that that was gonna play out until yesterday, where the consent that was issued, subject to appeals, was actually appealed. And so, you know, we now need to work through what that appeal means for the construction of that solar development. And it will, you know, it will affect the timing of that build, but to what extent, I can't form that view today, but I will tell you that we'll likely revisit the capital forecasts that we presented at interims when we've got a good handle on that. I mentioned at the announcement that the stay in business CapEx includes a few one-off projects, like the generation control system replacement, a gravel removal at Lake Manapouri, lake control.
And we've also got, you know, other work that we're looking to do to grow the business, including reaching FID for the Te Rere Hau Wind Farm up in, near or just south of Tararua. We got battery, another battery site. We got the Bunnythorpe battery site, which has secured regional council consent, and we're hopeful that district council consent is coming. It feels imminent, but you know, time will tell. And the Mount Munro Wind Farm, it's been through an Environment Court hearing that is now complete, and we expect a decision sometime between the end of this year and June twenty twenty-five.
The other thing that I'd probably just touch on quickly is that the Waiau and Western Bay solar projects, which are in our development pipeline, is neither of those were scheduled for the fast-track legislation. That was obviously disappointing for us, but we know that the expert panel had a number of submissions and applications, and we'll work through, you know, what it was that didn't see them make that list, and we'll also continue to develop those projects. And if appropriate, you know, we'll look for consent applications at both those sites sometime, mid-twenty twenty-five. So the key determination for both of them is transmission connection arrangements. So we will make those calls, you know, as we get to the other side of Christmas. And I'm probably gonna cut it there.
So, you know, you've heard from Owen and I how we felt about the quarter. One thing that you may have missed is that the Manapouri Unit 6 it was originally scheduled for a return to service in March 2025, but we've been able to bring that forward to December 2024. So, you know, we're pretty happy about that. In fact, the transformer is currently on a boat on its way to Bluff and preparing for the transport across Lake Manapouri to the power station. So I think I'll stop there. I'm getting ready for questions, so if folk do have them, I see a couple of them that are in there. But if you do have a question, remember, there's a 20-second delay between the time you hear this and you know when I can answer the question.
If you could submit one, if you've got it, that would be great. If I do cut you off, I apologize now, but you have been given that info. So I'm gonna go with the two questions that we've got, is there's one from Nev. Nev, thanks for question. It's on the HFO contracts with Genesis for CAL25. Have we nominated any commitment amounts yet? The answer, Nev, is no. So I don't have a number for you in terms of gigawatt hour or I think megatonnes that you would see from us. The team's still working that through. We do intend, as you note, commit to the exercise of that option early, but we haven't made that call yet. And there's a second question. So there's a question here from Andrew. Andrew, thanks for the question.
Can you provide any color on Ruakaka consent? I'm gonna ask Owen in a sec whether he's got anything. My answer is I don't. It's just too early in the piece for Ruakaka. And then the second piece to Andrew, your question was why did we miss out on the fast-track consent process? Again, I'll throw to Owen in a sec. We need to catch up with MfE and understand, you know, what the answers were. Our sense is probably the point you make there, which is, shovel ready or not, is those projects still got a lot of work to put them in shape for FID. And so, you know, we suspect that there were other projects that were closer to being ready to develop than those two, but we need to find that out.
So, Owen, any thoughts on either?
Oh, I just in terms of Ruakaka, I mean, we know there was one party who was opposed, and we know who it is. We, you know, we're seeking to learn a little bit more about what their objection is based on, because conversations with them up until this point were positive. In relation to the fast-track process, yes, so I think at a government minister level, they've indicated they followed the expert advice they received. We're still working through meeting those experts and MfE to understand the rationale. The other point I would make is, those projects will still have the option to seek a ministerial referral to the fast-track process in the future.
So, the fact they weren't on the original schedule, appended to the legislation, doesn't discount them from being included in the fast-track process later down the point. And I think that is still our preferred option on both of those developments.
Very good. Well, there haven't been any other questions registered. I think twenty seconds is probably given people enough time if you did wanna raise questions. So the only thing I'd do to close would be to say thanks for joining us. Hopefully, you did get a little bit of cover color in the quarter from both Owen and I, and some useful information, you know, outside of the operating report that we released this morning. Thank you very much.
Thank you.