Ryman Healthcare Limited (NZE:RYM)
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Apr 28, 2026, 5:00 PM NZST
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Earnings Call: H1 2022

Nov 18, 2021

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Morena. Tena koutou katoa. Good morning, everyone. It's nice to be with you all again. Welcome to Ryman Healthcare's results presentation for the six months to September 30, 2021. My name is David Kerr, and I'm the Chair of Ryman Healthcare. Here with me in Christchurch, I have Richard Umbers, our newly appointed Group Chief Executive Officer; and David Bennett, our Group Chief Financial Officer, who many of you will know.

On the line from Melbourne is Cameron Holland, the Chief Executive of our Australian business. In a second, I'll hand over to Richard to give an overview of the result, and he will then hand over to David Bennett for further commentary. Dave will pass you over then to Cameron for an update on our progress in Australia. We welcome questions at the end. You can ask questions either online or over the phone.

Of course, you can connect with us afterwards. Many of you have appointments made where we can have good one-on-one discussions. For those of you on the phone, our operator will advise when you're free to ask a question. I'd like to start the morning by offering a warm welcome to Richard. We were very pleased to secure his services. His start date was 25th of October, and we've just finished a full week of board and subcommittee meetings, and he's really made a flying start.

The board are delighted with his contribution. He's had the opportunity to visit several of our villages, both in Australia and in New Zealand, meeting residents and both operational and construction team members. He's covered a lot of ground already. Richard will give you more detail in a minute.

From my perspective, it's been a solid first half of the financial year for us, despite some major restrictions in our two biggest markets caused by COVID lockdowns. All our teams have continued to work extremely hard to keep everyone safe, and we're well advanced planning for the months and years ahead in the expectation we will be living with COVID in the broader community.

I'd observe that we're now much more knowledgeable about how to manage this virus, and that while the risks of infection continue, we're steadily making the transition from what might be described as a pandemic response to managing this as an endemic threat. There's one particular part of this announcement that I wanted to draw your attention to. The board has adjusted the dividend policy from a 50% of underlying profit payout to a 30%-50% range.

Clearly, this will enable the retention of capital within the business as we move ahead, and that, in turn, will assist in funding our future growth. We have strong growth plans to deliver the Ryman experience to more communities and remain committed to our investment in critical care infrastructure. As you're aware, we're a company that has and will continue to generate value over the longer term.

There's been a major gain in the intrinsic value of our portfolio over the last year, and the company is in a very good position currently in terms of that embedded value that Richard and David will expand on. It's now my pleasure to hand over to and introduce you to Richard.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Thank you, David. Hello, everyone. I look forward to meeting you all in person, hopefully sooner rather than later. We've had a solid first half with a lift in underlying profits driven by continued strong demand for retirement living and aged care despite the challenges of COVID-19. Our unaudited underlying profit rose 8.5% to NZD 95.9 million. Reported IFRS profit increased 32.5% to NZD 281.5 million.

This, of course, includes investment property revaluations. Shareholders will receive an interim dividend of NZD 0.088 per share, unchanged from last year. Total assets rose to NZD 9.85 billion, up 18.1% on September last year. Net assets increased to NZD 3.03 billion, up NZD 579.6 million from a year ago.

We had strong cash receipts of NZD 680.5 million, up 40.9% on the corresponding period in the prior year. Total sales transacted rose 48% to NZD 510 million in the first half. Only 1.2% of the group's retirement village portfolio was available for resale as at 30 September. When you consider the extent of the restrictions in our biggest markets, that's Auckland and Melbourne, our team has done an amazing job.

Our potential residents are a particularly responsible group of citizens, which makes it challenging for our sales and marketing team to engage effectively and showcase our villages. The gradual easing of COVID-19 restrictions in Victoria, changes to migration settings in New Zealand, and high vaccination rates in both countries is welcome news.

We've started work on three new sites during the half, at Takapuna in Auckland, at Highton and Ringwood East in Melbourne, and this brings the total villages under construction to 15. Another highlight is our recent consent at Park Terrace here in Christchurch. While all construction sites are progressing well, we are experiencing some disruption to supply chain and some upward pressure on construction costs.

Fortunately, we have long-standing relationships with many of our contractors and suppliers. We invest for the long term, and these sites will secure a recurring income long into the future. More importantly, they will provide critically needed health infrastructure, beautiful homes, and security for thousands of people. A few words about COVID. We're encouraged by the easing of restrictions in Victoria and in New Zealand. The New Zealand government's decision to give many of our workers a pathway to residency was fantastic news.

They've worked tirelessly with dedication and loyalty throughout the COVID crisis. We were also delighted with the decision made by the governments on both sides of the Tasman to mandate vaccinations for healthcare workers. Vaccines are critical to protecting our residents and team. Since April, in fact, we've delivered over 38,000 vaccine doses to the Ryman community, including residents, team members, their families, and our contractors.

We're delighted to have confirmation that we can now proceed with our booster program here in New Zealand, as well as in Australia. As David mentioned, I've spent my early weeks visiting villages and meeting with residents and team members. The first thing that struck me was the extraordinary commitment to care and the strong bond between our residents and our team members. They're all part of the Ryman community, and are strong advocates for what we do. I've been blown away by the professionalism of the teams and the extensive measures in place to keep everyone safe. I feel that we are well prepared for whatever COVID brings next.

In conclusion, we've had a solid half, and we're cautiously optimistic about the months ahead. Before I hand over to our Group CFO, Dave Bennett, I'd like to say a quick thank you for the warm welcome that I have received. I'm delighted to have the chance to lead this very special company and to build on the incredible legacy of the past 37 years. Thank you, and over to you, Dave.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Thanks, Richard, and good morning, everyone. Our reported IFRS profit, which includes unrealized fair value movements on investment property, was NZD 281.5 million, an increase of 32.5% on the same period last year. This includes unrealized valuation gains of NZD 178.7 million, an increase of 43.9% or NZD 54.5 million on the same period last year.

The lift in valuation reflected the inclusion of 187 new units in the valuation and new pricing assumptions, reflecting recent sales and the strength of the wider housing market, particularly in New Zealand. Our underlying profit of NZD 95.9 million was up 8.5% on a year ago. Growth and underlying profit was driven by a 53.5% lift in resale earnings, reflecting increased pricing and higher volumes.

Demand for our villages is strong, with only 101 units or 1.2% of our retirement village portfolio available for resale at the end of the half. While our resale margins lifted to 25% in the half, rising construction costs and the fact that we pre-sell units off plan has resulted in a lower development margin of 20.7%. Total book sales for the half of 703 units was up 21.8% on the same period last year. This was a great achievement given the restrictions in both Auckland and Victoria. COVID remains a challenge, and we've spent an additional NZD 7.6 million on staffing, security, and resident welfare in the period.

Our cash receipts from residents were NZD 680.5 million for the half, an increase of 40.9%. Operating cash flows were NZD 301.1 million, an increase of 212% on the same period last year, which was impacted by COVID. We've invested NZD 406 million into our portfolio over the half, and this investing cash flow was spent as follows. NZD 315 million was spent building new villages. NZD 35 million was spent on land to replenish our land bank. NZD 26 million was invested in upgrading our existing villages to further enhance the resident experience and the care we provide. NZD 30 million was invested in technology and systems.

This investment has seen our interest-bearing debt increase to NZD 2.43 billion, and our gearing ratio is stable at 44.5%. Our debt affects the investment that we've been making over the last few years. We're now building across 15 sites and have a further 11 sites in our land bank. The high-value nature of our sites mean we anticipate generating NZD 6 billion of capital proceeds from these sites on sell down.

We are in a healthy financial position with total assets of NZD 9.85 billion, and this is up 18.1% on a year ago. We have seen our net assets more than double over the last five years to over NZD 3 billion, and this shows the value we have created from building new villages and also the revaluation of our existing portfolio.

Alongside our net assets doubling over the last five years, our gross occupancy advances have grown from NZD 2.2 billion to NZD 4.4 billion, a compound average growth rate of 15%. The resale bank on our portfolio is NZD 1.67 billion. These pent-up gains mean we can expect our resale earnings to keep on growing even if the housing market was flat from here for several years. This is because resale volumes will increase as our villages mature. The embedded value, which includes the resale bank and accrued DMF, is now NZD 2.21 billion. Thank you very much and over to you, Cam, in Melbourne.

Cameron Holland
CEO of Australian Business, Ryman Healthcare

Thanks, David, and hello from Melbourne. I'd like to start by saying how much I've enjoyed my first eight months with Ryman, getting to know the wider team, immersing myself in the culture, and continuing our growth story here in Australia. We're enjoying our new freedom. We are about to reach 90% vaccination rate over here, and the last remaining restrictions are about to ease.

In fact, we spent over 80 days in lockdown in metropolitan Melbourne during the half. Fortunately, we were able to broadly maintain our construction program, albeit with restrictions and a two-week stoppage. Like our operations team in New Zealand, our team here has worked incredibly hard to keep everyone safe. We recently named our Aberfeldy village in honor of running great, Raelene Boyle. The village is a stunner.

It will feature solar power generation and special rain gardens, and the team has done a fantastic job. We have made good progress at John Flynn in Burwood East, and the village is on track to be complete mid-next year. We are also onto building our next stage of independent apartments at Nellie Melba. We were delighted to announce recently we've bought additional land at Ocean Grove on the Bellarine Peninsula to cope with extra demand.

The village has been named in honor of Indigenous Australian leader and opera star, Deborah Cheetham. Down the road at Highton, our Charles Brownlow village has also been progressing well and is nearing completion with our care and village centers now open. We have also completed the purchase of an existing apartment block adjacent to our new Essendon village, which will become our sixth operational village in Australia.

This acquisition will improve the overall development plan for our Essendon village. Following extensive consultation, we have resubmitted our plans for our Mount Eliza and Mount Martha villages. Construction has started at our Highett and Ringwood villages, and we are working on concept plans for our newly purchased Mulgrave site, which we expect to submit for a planning amendment by the end of the year.

We continue to see further opportunities to buy suitable sites of land in Victoria that complement our current geographical spread of villages. Overall, the resilience of the team has been amazing over the recent months. I am proud of how the team has stood up and kept going. Thank you, and back to you, David.

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Thanks, Cameron. As I mentioned, Richard's made a flying start. You'll also be aware that I've decided that this is an appropriate time for me to step down as chair and hand over to my colleague, Greg Campbell. I've worked with Greg for a number of years, and he has had a long association with Ryman Healthcare. I have great respect for his skills and experience. I believe that as chair, he's very well equipped to assist the board and the management team, and I believe that Greg and Richard's skills will be complementary, and the timing of my decision will assist them in developing a strong relationship.

I will be continuing as a director, and I remain committed to serving the company. I'd also like to thank all of you for supporting Ryman over so many years. I'd now like to open up to any questions. Look, I know you're all busy, and that many of you have scheduled one-on-one catch-ups with us, so we're gonna restrict this to something around a 20-minute slot. Could we maybe have the first caller?

Operator

Thank you. Your first question comes from Stephen Ridgewell with Craigs Investment Partners.

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Good morning, Stephen.

Stephen Ridgewell
Head of Institutional Equities Research, Craigs Investment Partners

Yeah, good morning. Just wanted to first acknowledge David Kerr's significant contribution as chair for a long period. The success that comes out of it. Stephen Cheetham, it's great to be with you and the board. Just a bit to Richard, you know, just no formal guidance this morning, but just wondering if you could give us a sense of, you know, really Ryman's position to match the second half result from last year, you know, particularly just in the context of the greater legal restrictions you seem to have been facing in the core New Zealand business in the second half.

Any kind of comments you could give us on the run rate of resales and new sales that you've been seeing over the last couple of months, any kind of trends to call out there, would be helpful.

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Stephen, it's not a very good line, and it's possibly hard. Maybe, Richard, if you repeat the question back, but I think the first part of the question was ability to match the second half of last year. Was that?

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. What I picked up here is I think your question was, given how we've been tracking, obviously we haven't given guidance in our announcement today, and you're asking how the second half is, in practice, gonna pan out. The first thing I would say in that, before I just invite Dave to give you some further details on that, is that these are difficult times, and there is a certain unpredictability to the current COVID situation that we have to be mindful of.

Clearly, it's impacting the ability of our sales teams to showcase our villages and the premises that we have for sale. Having said that, the result that we delivered in the first half, I have to say, was quite extraordinary in my view, given the COVID restrictions. Dave, have you got anything you'd like to add?

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. I think just to add to that, Stephen, we are in, I guess, a slightly changing world, and that's why we haven't done the guidance with the changes in the COVID restrictions. Coming into the previous sort of restrictions in Auckland, things were going very well, and we gave that update at the AGM.

Obviously, our build program is weighted to the second half, and we would expect that to deliver in line with what we achieved last year. We are, I guess, cautiously optimistic just as we get used to these new settings and what they may mean to trading over, particularly, the next sort of month or two. I think longer term we're very optimistic about where things are tracking.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

I think I'd add to that we're quite encouraged by the recent changes to the regulations that allow us to emerge from lockdown in both New Zealand and Australia. I think that's quite an encouraging signal.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Our vaccination program and, in particular, the booster shots maybe gives some people more confidence perhaps to come out.

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Maybe if I could just make a comment, that in discussion with our construction team, it's evident that when you lift a lockdown, everything doesn't return to 100% performance on a construction site. It takes quite a while to get it going again and to build momentum. There are some challenges. It's not a sort of an on/off experience for our construction teams. Yes, settings have changed, and we have a bit more of an opportunity to complete our construction aspirations, but it's not immediately occurring.

Stephen Ridgewell
Head of Institutional Equities Research, Craigs Investment Partners

Yeah, thanks, David. I'm sorry. Look, the line's not to create line, but to see if it's a typical statement. Sorry. What I was really trying to get to is last year you had a very strong second half weighted result, and obviously you had these restrictions in the second half. Now, are you still feeling it's gonna be a second half weighted result for full year?

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Well, obviously, I mean, we're not giving guidance to restate that. Dave, did you want to add anything to that?

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

We are expecting it to be a second half weighted result, Stephen, and that's on the back of our development program and the second half weighting of the build program. You can see the level of pre-sales we have. Assuming no further big delays in our construction program and everything else, then yes, we would expect a weighting towards the second half. We are just mindful of going through a bit of a change, so we just need to be cautious about that.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Of course, the second half historically has also been the weighting has been towards the second half in recent years anyway.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Yep.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Any other questions?

Stephen Ridgewell
Head of Institutional Equities Research, Craigs Investment Partners

Sure. I understand. Just on the core cost pressures in construction. You know, the company sort of had a longer term development margin guidance of sort of 20%-25%. Have you been thinking that development margins are towards the low end of that range on the nearer term, just given those cost pressures? Or you know, are you hopeful that you can offset those cost pressures with perhaps higher prices given the relatively firm pricing environment?

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah, perhaps Cam might be the best person to answer that in a second. What I would say is that there are opportunities certainly to increase prices as indeed we've done so over the course of the past year. This cost inflation environment that we're experiencing at the moment is something that is industry-wide. It's affecting the input costs, not just in terms of raw materials, but also in terms of labor. It has an unpredictability to it that at the moment is causing a problem right across the industry. Cam?

Cameron Holland
CEO of Australian Business, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. Thanks, Richard. Look, obviously, cost pressures in construction suppliers are evident across the whole industry. We are somewhat insulated through long-term supply contracts and existing relationships. I will say, however, that as you mentioned, there are cost pressures on the input side, but we do have some mitigants around the ability to increase our prices on the front end as well. It's one of those things we'll have to continue to monitor and make sure we adjust our approach as we go.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Further question?

Stephen Ridgewell
Head of Institutional Equities Research, Craigs Investment Partners

No, thanks. I just wanted to thank you. Thank you.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Thanks. Thanks, Stephen.

Operator

Your next question comes from Bianca Fledderus with UBS.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Hi, Bianca.

Bianca Fledderus
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yeah, good morning, guys. I guess. Hi. First of all, just briefly following up on cost pressures. Are you seeing similar sort of pressure in Melbourne compared to New Zealand, or is it more, yeah, sort of more in New Zealand? Then I guess your net funding position in Australia as well, post Estate Development, is that similar as well? Is that slightly better due to care rates?

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. I'll jump in there, Bianca. In terms of cost pressure, I think New Zealand probably has gone through a slightly steeper increase initially, but I think Australia is following. I think there's a lot of global pressure on supply chain, which is driving a lot of that cost pressure. I do think both markets are going through that.

But I think it's important to remember both markets have been through house price inflation as well. Obviously, New Zealand's I think it's sort of up, sort of around that 30% mark over the last sort of 12, 18 months. Australia, and particularly Melbourne, hasn't been through quite that same level yet. But as restrictions ease there, we'll be watching their property market closer.

We are mindful of construction, and one of the challenges is also just maintaining that supply because there are shortages in products occurring. We are looking out further with our sort of ordering process to make sure that we manage that process. Cam touched on the long-term relationships we have with suppliers being a huge advantage to us in that space. In terms of the capital recycling model, we are obviously doing VAD in New Zealand as well now, so our funding model in both New Zealand and Australia is very consistent. Further question?

Bianca Fledderus
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay. Again, I guess. Sorry.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Any more questions?

Bianca Fledderus
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yeah, I guess just on the topic of the VAD, yes. Could you just please give an update on the number of ORAs you have in New Zealand and Australia at the moment, and the average price?

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. In New Zealand, we're sort of probably averaging around the NZD 400,000 mark. I think we're up to about 60 sort of million dollars worth of ORAs that we've collected from that. It's been a good steady start, given it was something we introduced this time last year. We're really pleased with how that rollout's going, and see it as a really exciting product and point of difference for us in the market going forward. In Australia, the ORAs, they're probably averaging around the AUD 500,000-AUD 550,000 mark.

They will continue to lift because we sell down our new villages and they're priced at the sort of higher end of the range. I think our ORAs at Nellie Melba now are AUD 550,000, AUD 650,000, and AUD 750,000. When we first sold down where we'd done them up, they were AUD 350,000, AUD 450,000, and AUD 545,000. So as those ORAs come up in Australia and are repriced and resold, we would expect that average to increase there as well. Further question?

Bianca Fledderus
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay, thanks. Last question. Yeah, just last question from me. Could you just talk about the dividends and payout cuts and, yeah, what are the main reasons behind it? Is it for growth? If so, how much more growth should we expect?

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Okay. Well, we, Bianca, we've given over a number of years an aspiration to grow the underlying profit at 15% per annum. There is still a desire to achieve that on a continuing basis. The board are very mindful of our gearing and noting that we are well within our bank covenants. We see our present capital management as being something that we review regularly. In addition to that, we're quite aware of the disparate views of some of our shareholders when we have one-on-one discussions with them.

We believe that this change in the dividend policy will really support our growth plans and will reinforce to many of our shareholders that, in fact, we are a growth company, and their view, the view of many shareholders is that we are better able to manage that money than they are and that re-investing it with us is a positive thing. It is a change in policy and but you'll note that we continued with our dividend today to be NZD 0.088. That is a fairly small reduction in the actual dividend payout.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Further question?

Bianca Fledderus
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay, great. Thank you very much for that. That's all for me. Thanks, Bianca.

Operator

Your next question comes from Andrew Steele with Jarden.

Andrew Steele
Director of Equity Research, Jarden

Good morning, everyone. The first one is just on the expectations for development deliveries. I agree this is a COVID-impacted year, so what's your expectation of where the build rate ends up for the full year? How does that impact the, I guess, potential step change in build rate into FY 2023? What sort of step change might be reasonable considering the time it takes to get projects up to speed again?

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Well, the good news is that we are managing to maintain construction. As you know, in Victoria, although there was a shutdown, the actual closing of the industry actually is not something that took place particularly. Although we had significant delays in the build program, we were able to continue building. Indeed, that's also been true in New Zealand, albeit with some delays. In terms of the actual build rate, we believe that we can therefore maintain the rate that we've been tracking to in the past 12 months or so into the future. Obviously there are certain uncertainties at the moment in the market. David, would you like to add something to that? Yeah.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

I think, Andrew, in terms of the build for this year, I think we'd previously given the guidance to sort of 900 that you were probably alluding to. That is going to be a stretch. I think we're gonna be in and around similar to last year's, which is sort of touched on. We are, and that's just some of the projects didn't get underway quite as quickly as we would have liked, due to the restrictions in place with COVID. They've slid into next year. It does mean we'll need to reevaluate next year's build, but I think that slippage will just sort of replace other things that may slide out of that year.

We'll give that sort of view maybe at the full year result when we have a bit more certainty around what these new COVID sort of environment looks like. Yeah, we are still focused on delivering the beds and units. I do think it's also worth reminding that beds and units is just one metric. It's actually around the value creation is really important. What we've seen over the last few years is a shift to building in higher value locations. They are generating higher value returns for us in terms of the sale proceeds that we get from those units.

As much as we've always sort of talked beds and units, I do think it would be good to start thinking more around that value creation as a long-term play for us, as it better represents what we're actually doing as a company.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

I think we should add as well, just the impressive performance in terms of the resales in the first half as well. In that, it is just interesting that I think there's a shift going on in the market, between perhaps the units being sold off-plan versus the resales that we're getting through the business at the moment, and how that is adding to value and building intrinsic value in the overall balance sheet.

Andrew Steele
Director of Equity Research, Jarden

Yeah. Perfect.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Further question.

Andrew Steele
Director of Equity Research, Jarden

Good. Thank you. Just a follow-up on your comment on, you know, more focus on the value of what you're building. Does this mean that you are de-emphasizing or pushing back the 1600 medium-term build growth targets?

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

No, we're not looking to sort of push that back. I just think what we're saying is that 1,600 beds and units can look very different depending on where they're built. The better long-term view on us will be to start to move towards the value creation of that. Because building villages in Auckland, you don't need to build as many as you do in some other parts of the country to deliver the same value creation for the company longer term. That's where I guess we're trying to signal the move towards.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Further question. Sorry.

Andrew Steele
Director of Equity Research, Jarden

In terms of the impact of, I guess it's the difficult operating environment on your operating costs. Is there anything in the OpEx for the period that you would highlight as being unusual, and how do you think about OpEx seasonality in terms of the split between H1 and H2 this year?

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

I'm not sure I heard all of that question. Did-

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

I think the balance between H1 and H2 was part of the question.

Andrew Steele
Director of Equity Research, Jarden

Yes.

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

In terms of the OpEx, Andrew, we talked about the additional sort of NZD 7.6 million of COVID costs. Obviously at some point we would like to think we won't be incurring those, but I think it's pretty optimistic to assume that we won't have additional costs in the second half. Longer term, I would expect some of those to come out of the business. We are incurring additional OpEx as a result of our response to COVID.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Further question.

Andrew Steele
Director of Equity Research, Jarden

Just on the H1, H2 seasonality of OpEx. Anything you'd like to say on that?

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

The seasonality?

Andrew Steele
Director of Equity Research, Jarden

Yeah. Between 1H and 2H.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. No, there's not a huge amount of seasonality in our OpEx between years. Our staffing levels remain the same throughout. COVID is the biggest impact on that.

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

It's difficult to imagine that the COVID OpEx will increase in the next H2. It's more likely to decrease than increase.

Andrew Steele
Director of Equity Research, Jarden

Okay. That's very clear. Thank you. Just last one from me. In terms of the reduction in dividend payout, you noted, David, that the board is, you know, mindful of where gearing is and, you know, supports a kind of sensible movement in terms of dividend payout. I mean, when you think about the future growth runway ahead of the business and the actions you've announced today, where do you see a comfortable level of gearing or target gearing that allows you to sort of execute on that medium-term growth trajectory?

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Right. Well, I believe that the change in dividend policy that we've announced today actually will enable us to continue our current planned growth, with, let's suggest something, 9%-10% increase build rate, each year and a 15% underlying profit increase. The adjustment we have made at the present looks to be sufficient. Does that answer your question, Andrew?

Andrew Steele
Director of Equity Research, Jarden

Yeah, it does, largely. Just to be clear, though, you don't operate to a target gearing band, or at board level, you don't have anything around that?

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah, we do. We do have a target, and we have a capital management plan. It's not appropriate for me to share with you. But we are conscious that our gearing is higher than other parties in the sector, and we're also conscious that we see a very large growth opportunity ahead of us. That's really driven us to make this change in the dividend policy.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. I think, Andrew, just with that too, though, it's really important to remember our debt is a function of our growth plans. It is productive working capital debt. When you're doing a straight gearing, like our land bank example is obviously debt, but there's no representation of that in our NTA.

It is there for future growth. We do sort of monitor our gearing ratio. But more particularly, we look at the composition of our debt. I think when you look at the debts and the land bank we have, the sites currently under construction, the proceeds that we expect them to generate, and then you put that on top of our current resale bank and embedded value with the DMF of NZD 2.2 billion, we're in a very strong position from a cash generation perspective right now. That's how we also look at our debt as forward-looking. What cash are we gonna generate as a business?

Andrew Steele
Director of Equity Research, Jarden

That's great, guys. That's all from me. Thank you very much.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Jason Hamilton with ACC.

Jason Hamilton
Senior Analyst, ACC

Good morning, guys. Just for David, just what Steve said earlier, congratulations on continuing. I'm just a little bit surprised at the timing of the announcement, obviously, with Gordie also leaving last month. Can you talk to the timing of why now is the right time to step down as chair? It's a little unusual for a CEO and chair to go within a month of each other.

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. Yeah, no, I appreciate that, Jason. I guess that succession planning is a constant debate at the board table for the directors. With the appointment of Greg and his pre-existing knowledge of the company and relationship with the company and his very quickly coming up to speed, that was sort of a factor. We then, as obviously, we've welcomed Richard on board, and there's no doubt that the relationship between the Group Chief Executive and the Chair of the Board is very important.

It just didn't seem particularly useful for me to develop a strong ongoing relationship with Richard when I had already advised the board that I felt that I had nearly done my dash, and I think that no one would dispute I have done my dash.

It's sort of the combination of a desire to assist a good relationship developing between Richard and Greg as our new Chair. There is nothing lost in that I will continue in the role as a director. I acknowledge it's a little unusual to have so much transition in such a short time, but the transition is not as great as it might seem, and that I am continuing to fulfill my role as a director. I have a deep emotional relationship with this company, so you can be confident that I'll be displaying my interest on a continuing basis as a director. Does that answer your question, Jason?

Jason Hamilton
Senior Analyst, ACC

Okay. I'll end on this focus. Yeah, it does worry me. Can I ask also, I'd like to focus on value being invested rather than number of units. It's pretty crucial for this business case versus others in the sector. Can you, just in that sort of sentiment, can you talk about what capital is gonna be in the second half? Is it gonna be pretty similar to what you've invested in the first half, the NZD 400 million or so, obviously, that's past the COVID sale?

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

In, in terms-

Jason Hamilton
Senior Analyst, ACC

What is the range for capital investing in that?

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Is your question about capital investments or our build program? We have 15-

Jason Hamilton
Senior Analyst, ACC

Just capital investment. Just what all you're gonna invest in it.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

We have 15 projects in flight at the moment, and we started on site on a further three during the half just gone. There's a very strong emphasis on building for the long-term future of the business and building the instruments, if you like, that will allow us to generate the embedded value in the business in the years to come.

We are absolutely focused on maintaining a build program to deliver on that for the long term. The challenge that we've got is the short-term one of managing through the COVID crisis and the very real impacts that has both on our ability to sell, but also the construction program as well. We're not flagging that we are in any way not committed to what we're delivering.

We're just simply flagging that there's some uncertainty over the course of the coming six months or in the coming year. Yeah. In terms of the capital expenditure, with the number of sites we're working on, Jason, I think it's a safe assumption to say that our investments will be at similar levels or as to what they have been over the last few halves. Obviously, assuming we can keep building.

Jason Hamilton
Senior Analyst, ACC

Clearly, with this, just resale results pretty strong. This resale result's pretty strong. Can you just talk to what price increases you're putting through in units at sort of individual rate, a build level? 'Cause clearly, the broader housing market's been incredibly strong, and I'm pretty sure you won't be doing any of that for you.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

I think that's probably one of the most encouraging things, that through COVID and through the first half, we were very encouraged by the level of resales that we were able to achieve for the business. While our building program was impacted, it was a real strength in the business that we were able to generate a return out of the resales. Maybe there is some shift in the balance emerging in the way that we're creating value for the long term.

You know, I just seek to emphasize that ultimately we want to build the embedded value in the business and therefore it's a combination of our ability to deliver not just the individual units, but the right kind of buildings in the right place, and also to keep the flywheel turning, if you like, as we also have been able to onsell and resell those units many times over their full lifespan. Dave, do you want to add anything?

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Yes. I think in terms of pricing increases, Jason, we have sort of signaled at the AGM. We did one in April and we did another one in June. We have just recently completed another review in October. Overall they're probably sort of in that 15%-17% range in New Zealand. We've been more cautious, I guess, in Melbourne, just with the additional restrictions they've had there, and just waiting to see that their property market holds.

But if you look at appendix 13 in our results pack, it still shows that we're very affordable in all markets that we are selling in. We have followed the market, albeit slowly and/or with a bit of a lag, but we still see there's a buffer there. For me, I guess one of the really key indicators for us is that we're still selling incredibly strongly, and that's shown through the level of resale stock we have available at 3 September.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Further question?

Jason Hamilton
Senior Analyst, ACC

Thanks, Richard. No, that's all fine.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Thanks, Jason.

Operator

Your next question comes from Aaron Ibbotson with Forsyth Barr.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Hi, Aaron.

Aaron Ibbotson
Director and Senior Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Hi there. Good morning team. I just would like one clarification if I may, and then two questions. Firstly, just on the build rate guidance that I think you mentioned, David, on sort of 9%-10% build rate growth. Is that sort of from a reset base that you're guiding or indicating towards, sort of past year-on-year, or is it from the previous sort of 9%-10% , that I believe you guided for full year? Just have a clarification on how we should broadly think about sort of FY 2023/2024, or how you're thinking about it.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

I think.

Aaron Ibbotson
Director and Senior Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Thank you.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

The question is really off what base?

Aaron Ibbotson
Director and Senior Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Yes.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Is that what? Yeah.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Wait.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. Yeah.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

I think, Aaron, the key with that is the 9%-10% is our sort of medium- to long-term view. Obviously we are mindful of lifting our build rate over the last, in particular, the next sort of couple of years. We will just do that. I guess, we will be constantly reviewing that in light of the restrictions on how sales are going, but we are still committed to lifting that. The 9%-10% is a more medium- to long-term view. That's what we think we need to continue to do long term to continue to deliver a 15% growth in underlying profit. Short term, yeah, we will just assess the market.

I guess the benefit we have at the moment is the particularly strong resales bank we have and the expected lift in resale volumes we anticipate getting as well as our villages mature. Over half of our units are less than seven years old, so they haven't even hit maturity yet. That'll underpin a lot of our growth as well in the next few years.

Aaron Ibbotson
Director and Senior Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Okay. Thank you. You know, is there any chance you can give some sort of indication, in particular, I guess in light of what I assume has been slightly higher construction costs, driven by COVID as you build sales in Australia. You know, where are you seeing new sales margins coming in in Australia or expectations around that relative to your experience in New Zealand? Any chance you can give some early indications and expectations around that?

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. I'll perhaps hand that to Cam to comment on the expansion in Australia. Cam?

Cameron Holland
CEO of Australian Business, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. I think, look, overall, I've been really pleased with the progress over the last six months. The lockdowns have been quite severe in Australia, obviously, and that's definitely impacted our ability to sell, particularly with the high, you know, emotional purchase of real estate. Getting people in to see the product to actually affect a sale can be challenged when they can't get out of their homes. The fact that we've had sales in the last six months has been remarkable, frankly.

I think looking forward, you know, I'm cautiously optimistic that once the restrictions are starting to ease this week, that sales process will, you know, be somewhat improved, and that we'll see some interest regained in that area. That overall, those margins will continue to reflect both the increasing property market overall, and our ability to actually transact. Look, I'm cautiously optimistic that the next few months will definitely put us at a better position than we've been in the last six, for sure.

Richard Umbers
Group CEO, Ryman Healthcare

I think we have to see this in the context of a lockdown, which has been in place in Victoria for an awfully long time, and, in fact, is a large proportion of the last half as well. Some of this is all about the unpredictable human reaction to those restrictions being eased.

Are people going to reengage with normal life? Are they still gonna be cautious? What is their spending going to be like? Is this a time when they're going to make life-changing decisions in terms of, you know, where they're gonna live and the lifestyle that they're going to take on? We're optimistic based on the pattern that we're seeing, cautiously. I have to say it's an uncertain time, and we haven't seen a situation like this before, of course.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. Just for you to touch on that, too, around the new sale pricing. There has been a bit of a dip in the pricing we've achieved at a group level, but that's more of a representation of the geographical mix of our units. Obviously with the restrictions that have been in place in Auckland and Melbourne, we are seeing a large proportion of our sales in the wider New Zealand market. That represents that dip in pricing as opposed to anything else that we've been able to achieve.

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Aaron?

Aaron Ibbotson
Director and Senior Analyst, Forsyth Barr

Okay. Thank you. Final question to, I believe you, David Bennett. It is just on the sort of NZD 350 million that's of CapEx that's been sort of allocated to new village CapEx excluding land. I was just wondering, you know, if I look at your work in progress, investment property is up NZD 45 million or so, and your new sales cash flow, which I believe was NZD 213 with 20% of the margin.

You know, I wanted to know if there's any chance you can. You know, you have a number around how much of that has been allocated to or related to the, you know, independent living units with ORAs, I guess around 55%, 35%, 60% or so. Is that about right? Thank you.

David Bennett
Group CFO, Ryman Healthcare

I think that'd be about right, but it'd be useful just a little bit later if I can just quickly check your calc, Aaron, because it's just a little bit hard to follow that on the phone.

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. It's not proving particularly good, the audio. You'll forgive us if we are looking at each other, trying to get to the nub of the questions that are being asked. Look, maybe if we take one more question and then we wrap up. I do that acknowledging that we will be over the next five or seven days having lots of one-on-one discussions with you individually. Maybe one more question.

An online question.

Operator

Your next question comes from Alex Prineas with Morningstar.

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Good morning.

Alex Prineas
Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Good morning. Thanks. Most of my questions have been answered. Just one question on the dividend. You've stated a new range around the dividend. Should we be assuming for a second half dividend, it would be the same in terms of the percentage of underlying profit as it was in the first half or more along the lines that you're saying in terms of absolute amount? Can you give us some indication?

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Not really.

Alex Prineas
Equity Analyst, Morningstar

How do you think about that?

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah, I understand the question, but no, we can't really give you an indication in that we don't give a forecast on dividend. But I think that the dividend will be determined by what the board feel the company's shape is and how our debt and gearing is at 31 March. No. I think what we're just signaling today is that the board seek flexibility, and that's what we're keen to have, the change interpreted as.

Alex Prineas
Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Yeah. I guess maybe if I could just rephrase that in terms of how you came to the percentage proportion that you decided on for the first half, what were the sort of key drivers in that?

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

Yeah. I do understand the question, but no, I'm not in a position to determine what the payout ratio will be in the second half. I don't think that would be helpful.

Alex Prineas
Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Okay. Well, thank you.

David Kerr
Chair, Ryman Healthcare

No trouble. Look, there are a number of questions online, but we'd happily take those subsequent to this meeting. Look, it's. I'd like to thank you for your attention. You know, when I look back on the six months, it's been another tough six months, hasn't it? We've got continued demand for what we do, right? That's quite evident.

We've seen continued growth, although it's been stymied to some extent by the lockdowns. We've got residents for whom we've been able to absolutely demonstrate that being in a Ryman community is actually a safe haven, and that they'll be well supported and their quality of life will be attended to.

During that time period of such turbulence, we've continued to see an increase in the intrinsic value of the portfolio and a continued strong culture that Richard has evidenced by coming in with fresh eyes and going to villages. I feel very positive about the six months and it's just that we do have a level of caution.

A couple of years ago, we would never have imagined this particular pandemic would have come upon us. You know, I feel very positive about how the company has done in this challenging six months, and I am optimistic about the next. With those sort of closing comments, I'd like to thank you very much for joining us, and we'll look forward to catching up with you one-on-one over the next week. Thank you very much.

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