Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the Autumn Conference 2020. My name is Reidar Gjærum. I'm heading up Corporate Communication in Equinor. On behalf of Equinor, the Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, and the International Energy Agency, IEA, it's my pleasure to open the conference. This year, we are hosting it from Equinor's offices at Fornebu, and unfortunately not from the Det Norske Teatret. Since we can't gather a physical audience, we are happy to be joined by an even larger group than we normally have through this streaming. During today's broadcast, you will meet the Executive Director of IEA, Dr. Fatih Birol, presenting this year's version of the World Energy Outlook. Following Dr. Birol, you will meet the Norwegian Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Tina Bru, making her first appearance at the conference.
Also on stage here for the first time, you will of course meet Equinor's new CEO, Anders Opedal. Anders, just three weeks into his tenure, will elaborate around his and the company's ambition of being a leader in the energy transition and becoming a net zero company by 2050. 2020 has been an unprecedented year in so many dimensions. COVID-19, yes, for sure. In addition, let's not forget the war for market share on oil that led to a price collapse and the geopolitical tensions creating rivalry and uncertainty. In combination, it has reset the foundation for future investments and the direction of the energy markets. What will 2021 bring, besides a new president in the White House, the 26th Conference of the Parties hopefully taking place as planned for in Glasgow, and the fight against greenhouse gas emissions becoming ever more forceful?
All of this and more we will discuss during the next hour or so. To lead us through, another newcomer for the conference but not to the industry, please welcome author and CEO of Progressing Minds, Nashater Deu Solheim .
Thank you, Reidar. It's great to be joining you here in Oslo at this year's Autumn Conference. Let me welcome our speakers and you, the audience, to the conference this year on the theme of leadership in the transition to low carbon. 2020 will forever be a special year in the history books for the entire planet, from the rise and impact of COVID-19, which by all accounts will leave scars that will last for many years to come. To what extent the crisis has ultimately given an unexpected helping hand or indeed hindered efforts to accelerate clean energy transitions and reach climate goals, well, ultimately depends on leadership of businesses and governments and their response to today's challenges.
Whilst there is wide consensus that reaching the ambition of net zero will require efforts beyond anything we've seen before, critics state that those pledges are strong in the what needs to happen, but they remain scant in the details of how. The Autumn Conference is an opportunity always to take stock, take a broad look at energy and climate, and to bring together those who can tell us what the forecast shows, as well as illustrating the reality of what is happening now. As you heard, we have an exciting program today as we are joined by Norway's Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Tina Bru, the recently appointed CEO of Equinor, Anders Opedal, and Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, Dr. Fatih Birol. Whilst many things about this year's conference are different, one cornerstone remains in place.
We will be focusing on the energy outlook and transition with an even greater focus on a low carbon future and exploring that dual challenge of delivering the energy the world needs and doing so responsibly with minimal emissions. Indeed, net zero by 2050 if we are to meet the IPCC's challenge of keeping the temperature rise to below one and a half degrees. As the UN Climate Summit stated, it's not too late. Every ton of saved emissions means human lives are saved. What will it take? With the urgency now upon the industry and governments, what actions must be taken today? What will the energy mix look like in 2050 if we succeed? Well, who will be held responsible for the consequences, if not?
In keeping with our tradition, here to present the World Energy Outlook report from the IEA, please join me in welcoming Dr. Fatih Birol. It's great to have you joining us here, Fatih. The stage is yours. Thank you.
Good morning to all the friends and colleagues in Oslo. We just heard that the Madam Minister will participate for the first time in this very event. My Norwegian colleagues told me it is the energy event of the year. Of course, it is the first time that we have the new CEO of Equinor attending for the first time. There are many good firsts, there is one bad first, which is the, I think since more than a decade, for the first time, I am not able to make this event in person in Oslo, in this theater, Det Norske Teatret. I never thought I would miss that theater. Sometimes you understand the value of certain things, real value of certain things in your life when you don't have it, like this time not to have the possibility to have the being there in person.
I very much hope that next year, I will be in person there and meeting my friends and colleagues in Oslo. What I thought today to give you, first, what is happening this year in the energy world, then taking you through. Oil, what is the future for oil and also gas, and climate change. These three topics today, the energy world, oil's future, if I may say so, under different context and the issue of climate change. Dear colleagues, one of the advantages to be head of the IEA, there are many advantages and many, of course, challenges itself, but one of the advantages is you have all the data, world's energy data at your fingertips.
We follow the energy world, and the first headline message I want to share with you is that this year, global energy use, global energy demand will decline about 5%. 5% decline. It's a huge decline, but to make you understand how big it is, how deep this decline is, I am sure we all remember the financial crisis in 2008, 2009. After that financial crisis, global energy demand declined as well, and this year's 2020 decline is 7x larger than the decline we had after the financial crisis. A huge decline. All fossil fuels get a strong hit. The biggest hit mainly on oil and coal. Oil demand is a result of course, economic downturn and the lockdown impacts on transportation. We expect this year to decline about 9%.
When it comes to coal, we think that the coal is now in a terminal decline, coal use around the world. Still the largest contributor to global electricity generation, but it is in a decline. Natural gas was not hit as bad as oil and coal, but about 3% decline this year, the biggest decline in the history of natural gas industry. Now renewables. What about renewables, especially solar and wind? Our numbers show they are immune to COVID. They have resisted mainly as a result of their size, government support, and their economics. We have seen small increases both in solar and wind. Of course, this is much lower than the previous years' increase in the renewable energies. Emissions. This year, dear colleagues, global emissions are declining about 7%, which means erasing increasing global emissions in the last 10 years.
In one year, we erased the increase in the last 10 years of emissions. Normally, we should be all happy to see that the emissions are declining, but I am myself, I am not happy because I don't think this is a trend. Decline in emissions is something to be celebrated because it is not happening as a result of robust government policies, as a result of a new clean energy technology is coming in the picture. It is happening basically global economy is slowing down also the pandemic has its effects for the wrong reasons. If we do not take the necessary measures, it will rebound and go back to where it is before. Big decline in emissions, but I suspect that they will go back where they are if the governments do not take the necessary measures. I will give you one proof.
Just as of yesterday, I have a number to share with you to alarm everybody that the emissions will go there, where they were in the end of 2019 if the governments do not take the necessary measures, which is the following. China. In fact, China is a very important test drive for all of us to understand, before and after COVID, how the energy world could look like, because China is the first country where we have experienced the COVID. China, first country where there was a lockdown. China, first country in big terms addressing the COVID challenge, going out of the lockdown. Again, the first country, the economy started to rebound. As of today, Chinese emissions this year, 2020, will be higher than 2019. They rebounded. They are higher.
China, the largest emitter of the world, their emissions are back to 2019 levels in a world where the global emissions are declining 7%. This is a very important, in my view, number to understand when we look at the hard facts of the emissions and climate change. I was sharing with you one more issue about the COVID-19 and its implications, and I will start to look at the future, is about Africa. This afternoon, I have a meeting with about 15 energy ministers from Africa, talk about African energy situation and the IEA work hosted by the South African Energy Minister and myself. In Africa, we are following how many people in the world have no access to electricity year by year.
We do it 20 years. I remember when I started this work at the IEA 20 years ago, like 25 years ago, as a young analyst, I get the first financial support from Norad at the time to make this study to see how many people have no access to electricity. Now, coming to today, in the last 10 years, we have seen number of people who have no access to electricity, who have no electricity in Africa, was diminishing despite the population growth. Every year, good news, good news, good news. There was a very nice trend. 2020, we saw the trend reversing. Unfortunately, the number of people who have no access to electricity is now in an increase, it is a bad news.
After we all know, I guess, major hit of COVID in terms of economics, debt issue, and others on Africa, and this is the implications. To finish this part, dear colleagues, I wanted to tell you. This perhaps I start the forecast discussions now or the future discussions now. I believe, of course, as a result of the COVID, energy demand is down, renewables investments and everything. They will go back. Scars of COVID will be with the energy sector for years to come. This is in different ways and different means. I would like to show you four slides to take you through on a couple of findings. When we look at the next few years from today's perspective, there are many uncertainties, but two of them are big.
When will the world have pandemic under control and the economy rebounds? We don't know yet. In Paris, we live in France, we are in Paris only five days ago, six days ago, I don't remember exactly the number of new cases were over 50,000. Yesterday, I look at this morning, it is now about 4,000. We go up again, third wave, second wave, we don't know. This is the biggest uncertainty. Second uncertainty is how the government, in terms of energy policies, economic policies respond to the challenges coming from this COVID. Under this big uncertainties, we still wanted to look at the future. How the oil demand will develop. This was the oil demand growth in the last few years, world oil demand.
Last year when I had the pleasure to be in Oslo, I told you that oil demand will continue to grow. In the absence of new policy of the governments, it continued to grow, but even without major policies, oil demand growth will slow down. If we assume that as of next year, COVID is under control and the global economy rebounds, we have our policies, stated policies, and our scenario with the current policies of the governments. They don't make a major change in their policies. We see that the oil demand will start to rebound, but the growth will be much less than what we thought last year. If the world gets COVID under control later, which we call the delayed recovery scenario, which is very likely because we don't know when the COVID will be under control, oil demand will be much less.
There's a big gap what we expected last year and what we expect this year. Again, the biggest unknown is the COVID and the economic responses. There is a long discussion in the oil circles when oil demand will go, if and when oil demand go back to 2019 levels. Many CEOs of international oil companies said oil demand has already peaked. We will never go there, where it was in the year 2019. Because people are changing their behavior, their way of looking at life, they are better human beings now after they have seen COVID. A line of argument which I do not [audio distortion]. I do not [audio distortion]. I see it since a few months that those colleagues, those friends, they are very good friends. Those CEOs, we see oil demand has peaked, is something I don't subscribe for the following reason.
If the economy rebounds, which it will, hopefully sometime soon, global economy. If the governments do not take bold measures in terms of oil consumption, incentives for different oil-using sectors, we will go back there where we were before. I was saying this as a theory, as expectation to my colleagues, to governments, the international press and so on, but now I have a proof. At least a test drive. China. As we know, China is the second-largest oil consumer of the world, the largest oil importer of the world. Today, again, China, these numbers of China oil demand now rebounded, and today, we expect that China oil demand this year will be slightly higher than 2019. Full stop.
If the world wants to see oil demand going down as we have in our sustainable development scenario, then you need, governments need to put policies in place to push the citizens, industry, push away from use of oil. In the current context, we see that the oil demand will rebound. Growth will be not pronounced. I think that those glorious day of oil continuously growing, they are passe, they are over. We will see a flat oil demand, but the decline, structural decline, we do not expect. A few words on natural gas. Gas continue to grow, mainly driven by emerging countries, China, India. Last 10 days ago, we had a meeting with Prime Minister Modi. He's coming up with a major gas program for India, gasification of India, new gas program. China is also very strong.
Again, China's gas demand is much higher this year compared to last year. Why it is happening? For two reasons. It is used more and more for industry sector, where you need higher heat levels. Respect to chemical sector such as plastics and others, or even textile, food. Second, it is replacing coal, and in some cases, less and less oil, to reduce air pollution. Therefore, we see gas grow, and as we all know, there's a strong downward pressure on the gas prices, which improves gas position vis-à-vis coal and others in relative terms. Oil and gas, I wouldn't put in the same basket in terms of future prospects. Now, what about the climate change?
With the current policies government have, world emissions are perfectly in line with a temperature increase about three degrees Celsius, which is of course, as we I guess all appreciate, a major problem for our fragile globe of our planet. Why fragile? Because of extreme weather events, to the loss of species, and others. Many of you know much better than me. This is unacceptable. We want to see emissions going down substantially as we have in our sustainable development scenario. We also know that several European countries, U.K., New Zealand, Canada, came up with the net zero pledges, which is a very good news. China also made a statement, President Xi Jinping. China also had 2060 net zero statement. These are all very good, but there are two buts. First, pledging is something, doing it something else.
Second, there is a big gap what happens with the other actors. Yet, dear colleagues, we want to see that the emissions come to zero, not 2070, but 2050. Which means we, for the first time this year, what does it mean for the net zero 2050? Which means today, 80% of the global energy comes from fossil fuels, and 30 years of time, it should basically, unabated fossil fuels basically needs to come close to zero. From 80% in 30 years to close to zero, which is a huge challenge. Of course, challenges that will come from the change of climate are much more serious with huge implications. Now, we just wanted to share with all stakeholders, just to put in a context, what does it mean for the energy world to reach 2050 net zero goals?
Just a case we made, and I wanted to tell you, first of all, most important thing is that what happens in the next 10 years will determine everything else. This is our, perhaps, the most important conclusion, and we think everybody, all stakeholders, have to do a lot of things to reach the net zero in 2050. Zero emissions in 2050. Couple of examples. Companies need to do a lot of things. We have heard from Equinor recently taking very strong positions in terms of the emission reductions and being a part of, if not one of the drivers of reducing emissions. We have to see a huge push for clean energy technologies from CCUS to offshore wind, from offshore wind to others.
Just to give you an example, in terms of hydrogen, we have to see in 10 years, the use of hydrogen needs to be multiplied by 100, just to put this in a context. In fact, I just mentioned this CCUS. Let me take this opportunity to congratulate Norway for the Longship project. I was honored to release our carbon capture storage report in the national press just the day after of the Longship project was announced together with Madam Prime Minister Solberg. I thank you very much for that to Norwegian government being a leader here. Now, it's business. They also do something, and many things, in fact, as we have highlighted in our report, less than 3 km. You just take your bike or you walk. The flights need to be reduced substantially. Electric cars.
Norway is one of the leaders, but Norway is definitely not representing the average citizen in the world, Norwegian citizens. This year, 2.5 million electric cars were sold in the world. To reach our targets in 2030, 50 million cars need to be sold, electric cars. Which means, in other words, every second car, because we expect about 100 million cars to be sold in the world in 2030. Every second car sold in the world in 2030 should be an electric car to reach that. Finance world. They also need to push the clean investments, the energy investments in different ways, de-risking the new technologies, increase the investment for renewables, and developing new financial tools. Again, to put the order of magnitude of the challenge in context. For clean electricity investment this year, the world spent $380 billion. You don't need to remember this number.
In 2030, it needs to be multiplied by four, $1.6 trillion. Again, to give you the context again, this is what we try to do. Today, an entire energy world, oil investments, refineries, pipelines, gas fields, coal mines, power plants, renewables, everything, the entire energy investment today is $1.6 trillion. Only clean electricity in 2030 should be $1.6 trillion. What we pay for the entire energy sector, invest in energy sector, we have to invest only in clean electricity in 10 years of time. A huge order. Of course, I imagine companies, business, and finance, they have to do something, as we say, dramatic actions. You look at the energy terms, I have to say this, but governments is definitely at the heart of it.
Many of these choices need to be incentivized by government policies, and therefore, how governments take it seriously or not, they just make pledges or they go beyond the pledges will be a critical factor, whether or not we have any chance to reach net zero by 2050. Dear colleagues, let me finish my words by saying to you that this pandemic will leave lasting scars for many years to come. The question is still open whether it will be a setback for a secure and sustainable energy world, or we can use it as acceleration for change in the right direction. Renewables are growing very strongly, especially solar. Just to give you one number, again, I cannot stop myself.
This year, of all power plants built in the world, 50% was solar, other 50%, everything else put together, oil plus coal, gas, hydropower, wind, all these power plants, 50% solar alone, 50%. I have high expectations from offshore wind with the sharp decline in the cost and government policies. The renewables are growing very strongly. They are mainly growing in the decarbonizing the electricity system. We need much more than that. Yesterday, I had meetings with the several leaders of the Middle East countries. As I told them, the time of having economy indexed to oil and gas is about to change. They have to diversify their economies, they have to diversify their energy systems. As I told them, no company, energy company, no energy-producing country will be unaffected from the clean energy transitions.
Going to net zero means we need all clean energy technologies. We cannot only rely on solar and wind. They are very important, definitely, but we need other renewables such as hydropower, such as bioenergy. We need innovation in terms of the hydrogen CCUS battery storage and others. Unfortunately, I should say, reach 2050 will not happen by sending tweets and making strong statements. These are all nice and good, but we believe there are no shortcuts. We need to implement well-designed, well-thought, profound changes in a rather complex global electricity system. Here, we believe at the end of the day, it's a choice. The choice for all of us, for citizens, for investors, for energy companies, but most importantly, for the governments.
The choice is in front of the governments, whether they are going to have a commitment to bring their economies to a net zero context and put the policies in place to reach those targets or whether not. It's a choice that we will see. We will understand what kind of choices governments will make in the next days, weeks, months to come, especially when we are reaching the COP26 Glasgow next year. Thank you very much, once again for inviting me, International Energy Agency to your very meeting and listening to me.
Thank you, Fatih, for a very sobering presentation and a very clear call to action. We'll see you back here shortly for the panel discussion. Thank you so much. Now to kick off our reflections and that panel discussion on what we just heard and specifically what is happening closer to home, we are joined here in the studio by our two special guests. Norway's Minister for Petroleum and Energy, Tina Bru. Welcome.
Thank you. Good morning.
President and CEO of Equinor, Anders Opedal.
Good morning to you.
Let me start with a question to you if I can, Minister. You took up the position as the Minister for Petroleum and Energy here in Norway in January. Perhaps not the year you expected, if that's an understatement. Maybe you could share with us a little bit about what it's been like for you this year.
It's not an understatement, that's for sure. It's been, of course, a really, really strange and also demanding year for everyone. The main focus of government has, of course, been to save and protect lives mainly, and also, of course, to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on the economy and our businesses to make sure as many of them as possible are there when we're through this crisis. That's been the main focus. I think I got probably exactly one month in a kind of normal situation, and then we basically almost locked down the country on the 12th of March. For the sector that I mostly work with, of course, including the oil and gas industry, it's been a really, really tough year.
They were hit with a kind of perfect storm with the pandemic happening and the big drop in demand all of a sudden, and at the same time, you had a bigger production than you normally would, so that caused really havoc on the prices. Following that whole situation, trying to figure out what can we do, and not least the role that also the IEA played in contributing to trying to stabilize the market again after seeing these really, really horrible prices and the long-term effects that could have, has, of course, been a big part of my job. At the same time, we were looking at the Norwegian industry, which was also in a really demanding situation.
We were risking losing thousands of jobs overnight, key technology, communities, competence that we need for the future, not least in the whole green shift that we know it's just going to be super important to have also this industry still here to take part in that transition. Right before the summer, we actually ended up proposing a temporary change in the tax regime for the.
Right
NCS, the Norwegian Continental Shelf, to try to keep up activity and to move projects forward that we know are good projects. They are robust for oil price, et cetera, but they were stopping because of the pandemic. There's been many different things that were related to the pandemic. At the same time, we have to keep all the normal things going.
Right
-preparing for the future that's coming after the crisis. Of course, yeah, we had the APA round that was important. We've just now also announced the 25th licensing round, which is important. We're doing all these normal things on top of the crisis, so it's been a really strange year.
When you summarize it that way, and we're only in November, 11 months into your role as a minister, I'm struck really by how much there has been to do, both in terms of handling the effects of the pandemic and, as you've very clearly outlined, the impact that's had on the energy landscape here in Norway. What are your reflections on how Norway is now positioned in the future that Fatih just described in terms of a net zero ambition?
Well, we are pushing forward. Norway is also one of the first countries to actually increase our goal under the Paris Agreement. We're taking this really seriously, and we're also pushing the policies to back it up. One of the big decisions that, of course, came not too long ago was, as Dr. Birol also mentioned, the CCS project, Longship. It's been a project we've been working on in Norway for many, many years. We started in 2013, and now we've actually made a proposal for an investment decision. It's in Parliament right now. That, of course, is a big key of also looking long term, both in how can we contribute to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but also building new industry in new areas that also use the same competence and technology that we're already so good at here in Norway.
That was a big milestone, actually, in our work. At the same time, I'm trying to think ahead to what do we need for the future, because there's so many things happening. It's a huge shift. I think there's really no stopping the growth in renewables, and that's a good thing. We're also seeing, as Dr. Birol mentioned, big challenges if not policies keeping up and governments aren't stepping up.
You came out very recently with the white paper from the government outlining a lot of these initiatives and activities. Maybe you could just take us through one or two of them. I know in that you mention offshore wind, and I know Fatih also mentioned offshore wind as being perhaps something that needs even more focus. Doesn't have a lot of focus in the bigger renewable picture. Maybe you could tell us a little bit about Norway's ambitions there.
Yeah. The ambition with the white paper that I'm working on now is to look at, in my view, the oil and gas sector in Norway and the renewable energy sector in Norway is getting more and more integrated. Not least, it's a big part of the plans for the NCS to cut emissions. We're using power from shore out to our platforms and installations to cut emissions. To see how can this contribute to long-term value creation, how can we build on what we're good at already? How do we keep up activity on the NCS? Because we know we are going to need oil and gas for many years to come. We can produce it with low emission. It's a sensible thing to do. At the same time, what are the new options, the new possibilities that we're seeing?
Offshore wind is, of course, one of those things. Hydrogen, of course, also a big thing. We have now the opportunity to produce blue hydrogen, mainly also because of the CCS project, of course, now that we have a storage through the Northern Lights project. That opens up many new doors. We're going to need hydrogen on a large scale globally to be able to actually reach our goals under the Paris Agreement. We're also looking at things like seabed mineral mining.
Right
-which is also part of the future. It's trying to look ahead to how can we build on what we're already good at, connect in more ways, and create long-term value creation from the energy sector in Norway.
If I can bring you into that, Equinor is obviously clearly taking the lead in some of those initiatives, and I'm struck really when we're talking about things like offshore wind, to what extent we think, or I should say you're thinking about how profitable that can be without subsidies going forward, or is that something that's really a test bed for future technologies?
Well, we see that clearly that the offshore wind, the traditional, has been profitable over time based on the cost curve coming down. We have taken leadership also in the floating offshore wind that we need to do going forward in several places in the world. Fatih Birol said we need more offshore wind. In our energy perspective, we see that we need 9x more offshore wind than we have today to reach net zero. We have been very early movers into the floating offshore wind, and we are on the way down on the cost curve. Together with the government and Enova, we have the Hywind Tampen, where we are actually going to give electricity to five platforms offshore, the first time ever in the world.
That will be one of the actions we are on the way to create a very profitable floating offshore wind as well.
Both Tina and Fatih mentioned hydrogen, and that's something that, again, I know Fatih mentioned is key really going forward, or is an opportunity going forward for having an impact in the industry in terms of particularly the green hydrogen. There have been a lot of challenges, haven't there, around the cost associated with commercializing hydrogen. Talk us through a little bit about how you're going to address some of those challenges.
Here is also where we can build on the competence we have built over many, many years. Hydrogen and particularly blue hydrogen, that require gas, and we have built up gas value chains over many years. We have access to gas very close to the coast, particularly in Norway. We know how to actually kind of produce gas to hydrogen, and we are able to also pipe gas, and we have a long experience of that. With the CCS and the Longboat that we have developed together with the government, we're able to store the CO2. Here we're actually putting together all the technology and the industrial experience we have had over many years such that we're able to scale up this going forward. The challenge is the market. We need to see a strong demand for a hydrogen market.
It's very important now that governments do not pick winners among green hydrogen versus blue hydrogen.
Right
To kind of leave it up to the competition to find the most cost-effective technology. Then we are ready to scale up when we have the demand. Then it's back to Fatih Birol, are we seeing those governmental actions that will create that demand for hydrogen?
If I can ask you a similar question that I asked Tina, you come into this position at the helm of Equinor just over three weeks ago, and you're already dealing with the effects of the pandemic, starting to respond or continuing the response to the ambitious targets on the climate. We're talking now about some of these challenges which go from great statements and promises and pledges towards, for example, commercializing and making more cost-effective solutions like carbon capture and storage and hydrogen and even offshore wind. Tell me, if you can already, about some of the short-term measures, some of the actions we can expect to see that will really make the difference, that will turn the needle from great pledges to real actions.
Well, the real action, and we have worked on them for many, many years. Actually, really kind of more forcefully implement those actions. We will need oil and gas for many years, also, as the minister said. Norway on the Norwegian continental shelf is in the forefront of producing oil and gas with the lowest emission possible. We will continue to develop technology, cost-effective technology, power from shore, and hopefully also CCS solutions that we can utilize offshore. We will need to accelerate further the growth within renewables. For us in particular is in the floating offshore wind, where we already see we have a competitive advantage. Together with governments and the other industries, see how we can really take all our competence now and build a value chain for hydrogen and CCS.
The Northern Lights, part of the Longship, is a really important project in that respect, and we are very pleased that this is in the budget for 2021. We're really looking forward to work with the government in Norway to complete this project.
If I can just build a little bit.
Yes
-on what Mr. Opedal is saying, because I think this is really key, and it's important because one thing is what governments do, and you can have big ambitions, you can say, "This is where we're moving." But if industry isn't following, if industry isn't stepping up to the plate, and also, like with the Northern Lights project, if you're not putting your money where your mouth is.
I think we're not going to move far. The Northern Lights Project is a really good example of industry leaders actually coming together and saying, "Okay, we're willing to do this. We want to put our money in it. We're seeing this as a possibility." Of course, there's also a risk. I mean, the biggest risk for the Norwegian CCS project and Northern Lights is that no other countries follow. That this is something that we're doing in Norway, and then nobody else wants to do the same. We know that technology is so key if we are to actually meet the goals in the Paris Agreement, at least at the most cost-efficient way. I have great belief that this is something that we're going to see more of in Europe. My point was to say that industry needs to actually join in the efforts.
What Equinor has done is not only put some great ambition on a sheet of paper, but you're actually showing it through your actions, and I think that's really key.
I think we'll talk a little bit more about what I know the IEA has certainly commended Norway. Fatih, maybe we can bring you into the conversation now and join us in this panel discussion. The IEA has been very positive and complimentary when it comes to Norway's, the recent activities we've been talking about in the Longship project, for example, towards the net zero ambition. If we just zoom out a little bit and stay with the global picture, I know you've been asked this question several times because I've heard you answer it, but for our audience, if you would. What are the changes in the recent political landscape in the U.S.? What kind of impact can we expect to see that have on the climate agenda going forward, do you think?
I think this is a very critical question. I would say there will be two major impacts of the President-elect Biden's energy and climate policy if it is implemented. The first one is joining to Paris Agreement. This would create a tremendous momentum for the fight against climate change. United States is one of the architects, in fact, perhaps the main architect of the Paris Agreement, and still the second-largest emitter, as we all know, a very important economic and political player in the world. This will create a huge political momentum, and the risks of hiding behind will be diminishing day by day, by U.S. coming in. This is number one. Number two, to reach the 2050 net zero, we need technologies, and 50% of the emissions to reach the net zero in 2050 need to come from technologies which are not in the market today.
Once again, 50% of the emissions will need to come from technologies which are not ready for the market, which are not commercially available. The question comes, the magic word, innovation. United States has been the leader of innovation, and therefore, I expect that the next U.S. administration will give a big push to clean energy innovation, ranging from CCUS to small modular reactors for nuclear, from there to battery storage, from battery storage, hydrogen, and others. This innovation push from United States will be available. I would summarize a political momentum, global political momentum creating, plus the push for innovation. These will be the two important contributions of the next U.S. administration to come.
Fatih, if I can ask you to just reflect a little with Tina in particular on this question. Where is Norway, do you think, in that picture that you've just described in terms of what is needed and what is required when we look at perhaps the progress that's made already to date? Are you optimistic that Norway is where it needs to be and where perhaps others should be following?
Norway is, of course, an important energy player. Norway's significance and the significance of the U.S. are different from each other. Having said that, I always say, I say it very openly, publicly, wherever I go, Norway is a country that many countries need to take as an example. In terms of, I am talking about energy now, in terms of energy and climate change. Of course, there are other things in the Norwegian society that the country is yet to get inspiration from, but my job is energy and climate in terms of energy, because Norway has been providing the world with energy many, many years. We shouldn't mix two things. Energy is good, emissions are bad. Norway provided energy to make global economy up and running, more comfortable lives, the economic development, and so on.
At the same time, today, the Norwegian power system, for example, is almost completely decarbonized. Norway still, as a good citizen in the world, takes clean energy technology seriously, and I admire, I say it very easily, I admire the interest of Norway addressing the CCUS issue or taking being as a leader there. I really hope that the Norwegian efforts in terms of CCUS, of course, Norway does other things as well. For example, another expectation is offshore wind from my side, because our numbers show that the offshore oil and gas operations and offshore wind, if you look at them, about 50% of how we operate supply chain, how we manage the projects are very, very similar. Many synergies there. Norway can be a leader or one of the leaders in both technologies, and we have seen in the CCUS.
If I link this to the previous U.S. discussion, I expect CCUS will get a very strong momentum with the new U.S. administration. In fact, I know it will take a very strong momentum with the new U.S. administration, we will never forget that Norway, in the difficult times of CCUS, difficult times we need to pause efforts, public acceptance, Norway was a leader and push it from this history of Sleipner to Longship. Chapeau to Norway and Norwegian colleagues from Paris.
It's great, you couldn't have asked for a better championing of Norway's initiatives and activities when it comes to its role in carbon capture and storage technology, Tina. At the same time, the backbone of the NCS has been the exploration and production of hydrocarbons and fossil fuels. Tell me about where you see the journey in the energy mix going forward. Where do you see oil and gas in the energy mix going forward based on what Fatih just shared about carbon capture and storage being important, and also the picture for continued exploration of hydrocarbons?
Well, I think we also have to remember that the Norwegian carbon capture project has to do with industry and industry processes, not exactly oil and gas production. That was something that we tried to do many years ago that we ended up not doing. This project is looking at how to capture from industry processes that we know we're going to need also in a net zero future. Cement production, waste incineration, et cetera. We're going to need those kinds of processes. There's no way without. That's why we have to have CCS. Of course, we have a unique possibility in Norway to demonstrate the value chain in this, from the capture to the transportation to the storage, and that's what we're doing with this project and why I think it's going to potentially make a big impact globally that we need.
For the future, I think we're going to be seeing, of course, that we're going to be dependent on oil and gas for many years to come. We know that gas is important to also push out coal to actually reduce emissions, also in sectors that are currently still using fossil fuels. We're going to still see some hard-to-abate sectors that we need to work on. That's where I think hydrogen fits in really nicely. It's a perfect combination, basically, and it's an easy shift, but we have to bring costs down, and we have to do what we can to also push production.
How are we going to do that? How are we going to bring the cost down, do you think?
Well, we have to scale up.
Right.
The big cost reduction is in scaling up. That's the whole point with the CCS project as well. It's building this in scale to bring costs down so that it'll be cheaper for others to follow with similar projects. We have to see the same kind of development on hydrogen. What we're doing as government, as one example, one is of course funding through research and development. That's part of it. The other part is using also public procurement processes to actually put demands on what kind of fuel or what kind of energy you can use if you're, for one example, for the ferries in Norway that we have along our coast, right? When we're setting those tenders, how can we push demand for using clean technology? We're doing that actively as government, and so it's on two different levels.
It's one, it's funding research. It's also creating the demand for the production that will underscore being able to build it up in scale.
Anders, if I can just expand on that part. We're also talking about emissions and managing the emissions as well as carbon capture and storage, whether it's from industry or whether it's from the actual exploration and production of hydrocarbons. Tell me a little bit more about what Equinor has done recently to include Scope 3 emissions. For our audience who may not know what Scope 3 is, maybe you could just explain a little bit about what it is, but why you've included that and what kind of impact you expect that to have.
Yeah. The Scope 3 emission is when they use our products, the oil and gas products. We have had very ambitious climate ambitions on Scope 1 and 2. This is the emission that we emit while producing oil and gas. We're actually on track to be carbon neutral from our global operation in 2030. That meaning that we take full responsibility for our own emissions. We have now also included the necessary ambition by 2050 to also include the use of our products. That means that in 2050, we need to remove equal amount of emissions as our products emits. Then we need to actually kind of take away emissions.
We know that we will never reach zero emissions in the world, so we actually need to store. This is why it's so important with the CCS that some of the heavy industry that will not be able to actually remove everything, we can capture it, and we can store it safely, and we have huge possibilities for that. I also want to pick up on a point that Dr. Birol mentioned about innovation. It needs a massive innovation over the years to come. Is the one learning that we had from the COVID-19 is really about, when the whole world are putting their efforts into change, we can do it. Remember, we were able to change from working analog to digital within a couple of days.
When we put all our efforts, we have a lot of change capabilities actually in the society. If we can put all of that behind the innovation, and this is about collaboration. We see that the Longboat is about collaboration between governments and the emitters and Shell, Total and Equinor in the Northern Lights.
We are looking now at batteries together with Panasonic and Hydro. Collaboration across industries, across geographics, like bringing U.S. into the Paris Agreement would be also a massive drive that countries and industries, investors and consumers can work together to solve the new technology that we actually need to be able to drive down the emissions.
You mentioned there storage being, I know something that's coming up more and more as we talk about renewables and the possibility of having an energy mix in the future, which is perhaps overly ambitious to think 100% renewables, because we then need to start thinking about an uninterrupted energy supply, but also the ability to have storage. Where are we on the storage, do you think?
Well, for the batteries you're thinking of. This is massive scale-up that is required. This is back to innovation, be able to drive down the unit cost and then massive scale up. I think this is where we also need to see that the gas will play a role for many, many years to be the ones that are between the renewables and stabilize the grid. We can produce hydrogen from it, and so on. We will take some time for storage, but we will have the gas in between.
Fatih, if I could just ask you one, a closing question. I know we're wrapping up the session and coming to the end of this discussion. You've mentioned before that the transition to replacing fossil fuels with renewables will take a shift in mindset. What is that? What do you think is really required to make the difference between pledges to action?
Thank you very much. I am really so sorry that I am not in Oslo today because many, many years when I came over, as you mentioned also in the beginning, I gave sobering messages. This is worse, bad. Be careful. Danger, risk, challenge. For the first time, I feel since long time, I feel optimistic about the future of the fight against climate change. Why I feel optimistic? Once I see a political momentum globally emerging, and this is very important, we are talking almost every day with different ministers from China to colleagues in the D.C., to colleagues in Brussels, India and Israel. A political momentum is emerging, and there is a will. In the past, there was not a will or, in many countries, or they made so if there was a will. I see there is a will coming.
Second reason why I'm optimistic, in addition to political will emerging. Second, many technologies we need are becoming cheaper, such as the renewables, is the good news. Third, some of the technologies, since many governments are seeing that clean energy technology will accelerate some of the governments, some of the other stakeholders, industries, even they may not be a big fan of the fight against climate change, in order to position their economies, their business portfolios, they are pushing clean energy technology-related investments. They are seeing it is the reason I mentioned in the beginning. U.S., China, Europe, these three of them, together with Japan, make about 2/3 of the global emissions, and also the economy. Momentum is coming. It is being accelerated.
Even though I have all the trust in the human beings, I wouldn't leave everything to the mindset in the television programs or the speeches like this. Governments need to take the right decisions, put the policies in place, and I really hope, and it is not a compliment, the many governments around the world will get inspiration from our Norwegian colleagues there. While being an important energy country, at the same time, being one of the leaders of the clean energy and clean energy innovation. To sum up, I am optimistic, and next year, when I come over, we will see if my optimism has some realistic touch or is a more Cinderella touch. We will see it together. At the moment, I feel really optimistic in the fight against climate change, looking at the political, market, and technology-related facts.
Perhaps, Fatih, if I can close with the final question before you leave, and we wrap up this conversation. To that point, to both Anders and Tina here, how will you measure success? When we see Fatih next year, and you're telling him the actions that you've taken and the measures that were in place, what kind of actions and measures will we be seeing in the coming year before we regroup at the Autumn Conference in 2021? Let me give that to you first, Anders.
Yeah. We want to be a leading company in the energy transition. We will measure ourselves that we're able to bring technology and new projects both in oil and gas, renewable, and in the low carbon solutions, and that this is giving a competitive return to our investors.
Tina, the final word?
Maybe my biggest thing to prove will be my points that I made earlier with my white paper. I think that will show my thoughts and the way that we're looking to how we can create long-term value creation from the NCS. Also, I hope to be able to see more results of the tax regime change, seeing good projects brought forward, keeping investments up. In the big picture, we need to remember that we also need to keep up investments in oil and gas because that demand is not going to disappear overnight, and we need to also think about the whole energy consumption in the world and the stability for that. It's a combination of these two things, I'm looking forward already to next year.
Fatih, I saw you taking notes there. You'll have your notes ready for the conference next year, and you can have the same conversation with our colleagues on the measures that they've taken.
No, I was telling my colleagues to make a reservation in Hotel Bristol in Oslo for next year. I always stay there, very close to the theater. Very much looking forward to be in person, and hopefully share some good news about the world coming from Asia, North America, and Europe. Looking forward to hear even better news from my Norwegian colleagues, from Madam Minister, and from Anders, the new CEO of Equinor. Thank you very much.
Thank you for joining us today, Fatih. It's very good to have you with us.
Thank you very much.
That wraps up this year's Autumn Conference. A very special thank you to our speakers and guests here in the studio, and to you, our audience, for joining us today. Please stay safe. Thank you, and goodbye.