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Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Feb 11, 2021

Speaker 1

Welcome to Keytrion's 4th Quarter and Full Year 2020 Review. I'm Peter Nielsen, President and CEO and presenting with me today is Katrin Njalanda, CFO. Please remember that you have the possibility to post questions through the webcast. We will answer these at the end. Now 2020 has been, in many ways, an exceptional year.

The corona pandemic has created both challenges and possibilities. The growth of our medical device revenue in 2020 is directly attributable to the pandemic driven demand. Also, constraints in the upstream supply chain have created opportunities for Ketron as our performance likely has been better than the average competition. We expect much of the growth for 2021 to be driven by new customers and new products won during the past year or so. Next page please.

So, the 4th quarter revenue is the highest Q4 revenue ever. Growth is more than 11% in the quarter and contributing to the remarkable growth of 20% for the full year. Growth in the quarter was solely driven by the industry sector at more than 50% growth. This growth came from electrification products, which grew more than 160%. Other sectors returned to more normalized levels.

EBIT in the quarter improved close to 40% and yielding an impressive $76,000,000 Profits were largely driven by significant improvements and the CEE, Central Eastern Europe operations. As efficiency improved in Lithuania and Poland, Profits increased from $12,000,000 to $39,000,000 Operating cash flow was favorable as the peak in medical deliveries in Q3 generated cash in Q4. Overall, the cash flow improved 36% year on year in Q4 and generated CAD 237,000,000 in cash flow for the year. Next page please. Some additional highlights in the quarter.

Earnings per share in the quarter grew 36% from NOK 0.19 to NOK 0.26 as a result of improvements in the CEE performance. The full year EPS improved more than 60%, driven to a large degree by corona related demand increases and reliable performance across most Ketron Companies. Order backlog grew overall by modest 6%. However, there's a strong growth of 35% within electrification, Connectivity and Automation. Net working capital grew in line with sales growth and constraints in the supply chain.

Capital efficiency measured towards sales remained unchanged, but return on operating capital excluding IFRS 16 improved to over 21%. Dividend for 2020 is proposed at NOK0.17 per share paid in 2 equal tranches of NOK0.35 in May and then October. And in addition, Keytrum will be organizing a Capital Markets Day on March 17. The Capital Markets Day will introduce new market segmentation, new sales targets towards 2025 and an updated strategy. I welcome you all to join us.

Next page, please. In regards to awards in the quarter, 2 awards were announced. Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace awarded production of a new radio link module to Ketron Norway and Northrop Grumman awarded a development project to run over the next 3 years. The end result of this project will enable Key Tron to function as a repair center for the United States Government. And moving on to financials and off to you, Katrin.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Peter. Slide 5, please, financials. And then we'll go to Slide 6, please. Industry sector shows strong growth. The quarter ended at SEK 992,000,000 and an increase of NOK 103,000,000 and 12% compared to last year.

The underlying growth is 7%. Let's discuss the sectors as they are shown in the graph from left to right. Defense Aerospace, lower 7% lower than last year, a reduction of SEK 200 reduction to SEK 234,000,000 and the result of some multi year orders haven't been worked out and where we are waiting the follow on orders. It's primarily for the U. S.

Energy Telecom, we see a reduction of 8.5 percent, down to SEK 78,000,000 compared to last year due to the disengaged customer. But from the graph, it's clear to see that we have reached the bottom in Q2 with SEK 46,000,000 and now we're building up back to revenues. An increase in deliveries within the Energy Transmissions are mainly behind the growth so far. For industry, growth of 53% and SEK 170,000,000 up to SEK488,000,000 due to strengthening within electrification and demand driven by warehouse automation and IoT. All over good growth, but CE is absolutely the largest contributor within the industry.

And as previously communicated, Medical Devices revenue is normalized and a reduction of SEK 4.3 and down to NOK 133,000,000 170 3,000,000 compared to last year as the ventilator business has calmed down. For the sector, offshore marine, a substantial reduction compared to last year, but stabilized at the low level and in line with previous quarters this year. Looking at the sites. Norway showed strong growth at 16.4 percent and ending at SEK 283,000,000, which is higher than previous quarters and a robust quarterly revenue this year. Sweden with a modest growth of 3.5% and ending at SEK 171,000,000.

Compared to last year, Sweden's numbers are affected by the customer that was disengaged. And compared to previous quarters, they are affected by the slowdown in medical devices. However, we see volumes growing with other customers, many of them new. CE, Central and Eastern Europe in total, a strong growth of 38 percent up to SEK397,000,000 as industry strengthens for both sites. Of a growth of €103,000,000 in the quarter compared to last year, €109,000,000 comes from CEE.

For Others, China volumes are returning to normal levels and for U. S, a reduction, mainly due to the defense projects for multiyear orders being worked out. In the U. S, previously a strong foothold in the defense aerospace, we now start to see more diversification And they've just about started to work with a new customer within medical devices as we talked about last quarter. For the full year revenue, it ended at almost SEK 4,000,000,000 or SEK 39,000,000, SEK 6.4 million and up 20% and SEK665,000,000 compared to last year.

We have had significant changes within the sectors. Defense Aerospace is up NOK 230,000,000 N and D Telecoms down NOK 240,000,000 Industry up NOK 400,000,000 Medical Devices up SEK410,000,000 and Offshore Marine down SEK 135,000,000. It really proves the point that the sectors have different business cycles and compensate each other, which gives stability in the income for Key Tron in total. Slide 7, please. Outstanding full year results.

Profits are returning to strategic levels. Q4, Normally a strong quarter and so also this year at 7.6%, up from 6.3% last year. But of course, less than Q2 and Q3, where we had of scale and exceptional utilization due to the demands in the medical devices. For the group results, the world situation has affected NOK. And since consolidation in NAK, it has affected the accounts as well.

Revenue has an underlying growth of 7% and EBIT has an underlying growth of above 30%. Although the NOK has a favorable development in consolidation, it does not in general affect the local accounts. But dependent on the currencies, the site to business in, there are normally some local effects due to revaluation of net working capital. However, for Q2 or Q4, this is very minor as we have around negative 0.1% margin effective revaluation and around the same level last year and the cumulative figure is about the same as well. Worthwhile commenting is also that we below EBIT have a net noncash negative ARGEO of SEK 8,700,000 in finance net compared to a loss of SEK 2,800,000 last year, mainly a revaluation of euro to PLN loans in Poland.

Tax rate in the quarter is 21.6%, which is slightly lower than last year's 23,600,000 and mainly because of the income mix due to higher share of profits in lower tax countries, mainly CE actually. In all, a very good quarter. Slide 8, please. Q2 EBIT by country, improved profits and profitability. Norway and Sweden now both at strong margins, Norway at 7.5%, up from 5.4% last year and Sweden just below 7% at 6.9% and up from 6.3% last year, both showed solid improvement.

Norway's growth in 4th quarter, slightly over 16% and the managed leverage that growth into profit increase of over 16%, increasing profits from 13.2% to 21.4%. Sweden improved profitability from 6.3% to 6.9%. Revenues here also growing, but with a more modest 3.5%, Nevertheless, increasing profits with 4.5 percent going from 10.4% to 11.9%. Central and Eastern Europe, improved EBIT margins from 6.6% in Q1 to 7.2% in Q2, a dip during Q3 when it was down to 5.5% and now 9.8% in Q4. Volume increased 40% and profit 25%, strong contribution from both sides.

Although the previous quarters have been in line with our expectations, We have to say that the deliveries in Q4 was well above our expectations, both sides in CEE well above strategic levels. The others, consisting of U. S. And China, show a low profitability in Q4 compared to the exceptional performance earlier this year. Q4 was particularly weak in the U.

S. And the large volumes in Medical Devices Q2, Q3 is now down to normal. In all, we are quite satisfied with the improvements in profitability overall for the sites and the reason why they are managing to improve profitability. There is only one answer to that and attention to detail and hard work and operational excellence. Slide 9, please.

Speaker 1

Working

Speaker 2

capital. Working capital ended at 3,000,000, an increase of 13% compared to last year. Adjusted for foreign exchange effects and consolidation is around a 10% increase on last year's level. So of the EUR 121,000,000 increase, EUR 26,000,000 relates to currency. Main increase in networking capital in local currencies are due to demand growth in Defense, Aerospace and Industry sectors.

Compared to Q3, there is a reduction in the working mainly due to the normalization of the medical devices volume. We are carrying more inventory. The increase in mostly in WIP and finished goods represented as contract assets in the balance sheet. The increase here is mainly due to the previously mentioned demand growth in Defense Aerospace strong growth, but part of that increase is covered by advances from customers. Sites not involved in defense show minor growth or for many a stabilization in inventory levels.

Trade payables are increasing as a result of high activity and a higher share of preferred vendors longer payment terms. Trade receivable are higher than last year, but the reduction compared to last quarter. Overdues are about 6%, up in value in percent and mainly clear by now. We definitely have seen a more tactical payments at the end of this quarter than ever before. Receivables as a percentage of revenue is approximately 21%, which is slightly up from last year's 20%.

DSO is 65 days. In total, net working capital in percentage of sales is up 26.3%, which is same as last year. Cash conversion cycle is reduced to 98 days from 102 days last year. ROC substantially improved compared to last year to 18.9%, up from 14.8%, driven by the increased profitability in the quarter. Adjusted for IFRS 16, buroc slightly over 21%.

There is a positive cash flow of SEK 132,000,000 in the quarter compared to positive SEK 97,000,000 last driven by profitability and reduction in working capital. In total, cash flow is SEK 237,000,000 compared to SEK 195,000,000 last year. Investments at SEK 60,000,000 is approximately 1.5 percent of revenue in total, slightly higher than slightly lower than depreciation of 2.5% for this year. Net interest bearing debt over EBITDA improved from SEK 2.8 last year to SEK 1.8 this year. If we adjust for IFRS 16 of around SEK 120,000,000, it is SEK 1.6.

Net debt is SEK758,000,000 at the same level as Q3 and reduced to SEK 26,000,000 from last year. And in Q4, we paid the dividend of SEK 90,000,000. As for 2021, a dividend of €70 per share is proposed, which is in total €125,000,000 It's also proposed to pay the dividend in 2 tranches, 1 in May and 1 in October, mainly to split the cash outlay. We see that as we continue to grow dividends, this is becoming increasingly important. And also far, the capital situation is satisfactory.

Slide 10 and over to you, Piet.

Speaker 1

Thank you so much, Kathleen. Before we look at the order backlog, let me comment in general. Competition continues to be fierce, but with strong efficiency improvements, well thought out equipment investments and a superior management of the supply chain, Ketan continues to win new business as well as serving existing customers with necessary cost reductions and world class quality and flexibility. Our competitiveness is demonstrated by a high hit rate with new customers consistently above industry average. Close to $500,000,000 in sales in 2021 is coming from new customers won in 2019 through 2020.

As our customer relationships mature, we consistently win new generations and expand our product portfolio and service range. We also support customers in taking over their internal production and we participate and sometimes run design projects and design teams. Overall, the market continues to develop favorably for Keytrum. We're in the process of changing the way we view and segment the market and we'll be happy to share this on our upcoming Capital Markets Day on March 17. So now let's move on to the order backlog.

As I mentioned previously, the order backlog increases 6% year on year. On the Defense and Aerospace sector, Aerospace remains strong. The defense communications part is reduced as we have delivered on full year we've delivered another full year on multi year orders in 2019. Fire control systems and surveillance continue to show growth and strong growth even. Within Energy Telecoms, machine to machine IoT and networking products are growing around 25%.

Energy transmission is growing 35%. Within industry, automation products show a growth of 28% and sensors 73%. Starting in the Q1 2021, Ketron's market sectors will be updated. Marine Offshore and Energy Telecoms will be replaced by Connectivity electrification and historical comparisons will of course be available. Let's move on to the next slide, please.

And move into the outlook. For 2021, we expect revenues to be between SEK3.9 billion and SEK4.2 billion. We expect the EBIT margins to come in between SEK6.8 billion and SEK4.4 percent. This outlook implies that we're back on our long term trajectory for revenue and profitability after exceptional growth in 2020, largely driven by the corona related demand within the medical devices sector. Growth is driven by Defense Aerospace, Electrification and within Energy Telecom and Automation and Sensors within industry.

Medical devices is expected to be more normalized and return to previous year's levels. So then finally, Please remember to post any questions you have to the webinar Q and A section. The key takeaways from this quarter and for the full year as we have outstanding full year results in 2020. We're back on our long term trajectory for revenue and profitability. There's a proposed dividend of NOK0.17 per share and we have a Capital Markets Day on March 17.

This concludes the presentation portion. You can hit the last slide there, Catherine. And we'll move on to see if we have any Questions. And there is one question. Can you please comment on the likelihood of potential M and A moves during 2021?

Well, during the past year 2020, we have been involved in looking at probably half a dozen or so different opportunities and we were involved also more deeply in 1 or 2. We feel right now that the market is overvalued when it comes to what's out there in the M and A front. So It's difficult to say if anything is going to happen exactly in 2021. I can say that we don't have anything going on exactly right now. But we are opportunistic.

We continue to look at further growth. We're particularly interested in and expanding our capacity in the next 2 years in the Central Eastern Europe region. That can be done either through an M and A giving us some nice bottom top line to start out with or as a greenfield if that opportunity deems is a better option. That is the only question we had. So Maybe we will conclude on that and meet the rest of our investors in teams meetings and other meetings throughout the day and next week.

Okay. Thank you so much. We'll see you back in the Capital Markets Day on March 17. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

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