MPC Container Ships ASA (OSL:MPCC)
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Sep 15, 2026, 9:10 AM CET
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Earnings Call: Q1 2021

May 21, 2021

Constantin Baack
CEO, MPC Container Ships

Good afternoon. Good morning, everyone. This is Constantin Baack. I'm CEO of MPC Container Ships, and I would like to welcome you to our Q1 2021 earnings call. I'm joined here by our CFO, Mr. Benjamin Pfeifer. Thank you for joining us to discuss MPC Container Ships' first quarter earnings. This morning, we have issued a stock market announcement covering MPCC's first quarter results for the period ending March 31st, 2021. The release, as well as the accompanying presentation for this conference call, are available on the company's investor media section of our website. Please be advised that the material provided and also our discussion today contain certain forward-looking statements and indicative figures. Actual results may differ materially from those stated or implied by forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business. Before I guide you through the presentation, let me start with a few opening remarks.

The strong container market momentum, which commenced in the second half of 2020, has yet not shown any sign of slowdown, but has instead constantly strengthened further during the first month of 2021. The present market conditions are based on fundamentals. Significant demand growth in combination with limited supply, fueled by certain extraordinary effects such as the container box shortage and the Suez Canal blockage, has led to one of the strongest container markets in history, which we expect will continue. Charter rates are at historically high levels, while charter periods are getting longer and longer, thus increasing cash flow visibility on our fleet. I will elaborate in more detail on this in the course of this presentation, particularly in the market and outlook section.

On that note, I would like to start with today's presentation, commencing with a brief recap of the Q1 2021 and year-to-date highlights, followed by an update on some relevant market parameters and concluding with the company's outlook. Turning to slide four of the presentation, the first quarter was basically a reflection of the positive charter markets and charters that we concluded during Q4 last year. It is in part visible already in our financials. At $51.4 million, net revenues in Q1 2021 were around 50% and came significantly above Q4 2020 levels, reflecting the rollover of charters in an improved market environment. Similarly, at $22.3 million, the EBITDA in Q1 was around four times the respective figure in Q4 last year, and even higher than the full year 2020 EBITDA figure.

Average TCE and EBITDA per day, as well as fleet utilization at improved levels underpin the positive market development. The COVID pandemic has continued to affect operations, notably in relation to crew changes or vessel deviations. However, overall, we are happy with the operational performance despite certain COVID-related challenges, as can be seen in the OpEx figure. At the end of Q1, the company had a cash balance of roughly $48 million. Moreover, key balance sheet figures remain solid with an equity ratio of around 57% and a moderate leverage of around 41%. Further details on our Q1 2021 financials are made available in the appendix of this presentation and also in the financial report, which is available on our website. Now, please turn to slide five, where we provide an update on key developments and activities for Q1 2021. Let me start with market developments.

On a macro level, a significant recovery is expected for 2021. We expect uncertain growth versus -3.3% decline in 2020. Good progress on vaccination, combined with relatively low or actually historically low inventory to sales ratios additionally support both production and trade. When we look at the container market, strong uncertain has pushed freight rates to historic high levels. Whilst we have observed a significant number of new vessels being ordered since basically Q4 2020, overall market fundamentals remain solid. Looking at the charter market, all key parameters such as fleet utilization, charter rates, and periods have not just continued to improve during the first couple of months of 2021, but are at basically historical highs, high levels or low levels as far as idle fleet is concerned. I will elaborate in more detail on the most recent developments in the upcoming market and outlook section.

Looking at corporate financial development year-to-date, we have issued our second annual ESG report end of March. We, as a company, are fully committed to ESG and to the IMO's climate ambition, and we will take action, including certain investments in our fleet. Looking at the financials, we basically, as I mentioned before, see a very low financial leverage of around 41%, combined with a net debt to EBITDA, and with EBITDA I refer to the midpoint of our 2021 guidance of 1.7 times. A fairly low number in any event. Basically no significant debt maturities until 2023. The significantly improved earnings that we expect for the full year are confirmed by confirming the guidance that we have set out earlier this year, and we expect revenues to come in between $230 million-$260 million, and EBITDA around $20 million-$140 million.

The strong cash generation that we expect for certainly the remainder of this year, is on the back of a very, very solid charter backlog of more than $400 million as per today. I would like to run you through some operational and portfolio aspects. As explained in the previous update, we have taken action and have worked a bit on the portfolio composition by selling a few smaller, slightly older vessels and acquiring a slightly larger vessel. All of that has been conducted during the first quarter. We are at the same time preparing ourselves for the IMO, the upcoming IMO regulation, in terms of EEXI and CII, and have set out a work group in that respect and analyzed our fleet on that basis. The fleet utilization is very satisfying.

We have very high utilization in the first three months, and that is continuing in April, and we expect that to continue throughout the course of this year. The continued access to a very strong charter market has created additional visibility, as I've mentioned before, and you can see at the bottom of the slide the different fixture activities. We have fixed a number of vessels, year to date, 26 vessels at an average period of 19 months and an average rate of $18,220. As you can see, comparing Q1, which was dominated by fixtures for smaller vessels in our portfolio to Q2 2021, periods have been longer and rates have been higher. Now, let me run you through some of the market aspects on slide number eight, where you can see, basically illustrated on that slide, the key indicators for both the ocean freight and also the product.

On the left-hand side, you can see key freight market indicators. Obviously, the red line, the SCFI index and annual TEUs throughput over time. As you can see, volumes have recovered to above pre-COVID levels. According to CTS, volumes during the first quarter 2021 are up on 2020 year-on-year. In addition, the freight rate index is basically at an historic high. Looking at the right-hand side of this slide, you can see charter rates and idle stats over the last decade. You see that we are at the low point when it comes to idle fleet and hence at the high point when it comes to utilization. Also, TC Rate Index is at a very high point in time.

Very importantly, we'll touch upon that in a minute, is that it's not just a high level of TC rates, it's also long periods that you can obtain in this market environment. Let me move on to the next slide nine of the presentation, where we take a closer look at the charter markets and secondhand value dynamics over the last couple of months and years. As you can see at the top left, time charter rates have increased significantly, basically steeply and steadily across sizes since Q3 2020. We are now looking at charter levels of three to five times the level seen in May 2020, depending on the different sizes. The chart on the top right shows the development of secondhand prices as well as in the background, the light blue columns, the S&P activity.

What is very important to note, obviously, the trend is the same. The asset prices have followed the charter market development. When you look at the bottom left graph where we have compared, by way of example, a 2,800 TEU container ship, the development of, and that's the blue line, time charter rates and secondhand values. You can see that asset values have been lagging behind. I think it's very important to understand in that respect, that last time we have seen charter rates of this magnitude, basically asset values were almost double the number of today's levels seen at the chart at the left-hand side.

To give you an example also from our fleet, we have just recently fixed a 2,500 TEU vessel for a rate of around $27,000 per day for a period of three years, which translates into a secured EBITDA of $21 million, and that vessel is 17 years of age. It gives you a clear idea that those asset values that are illustrated at the chart on the left certainly have room to improve further. In my view, I expect it to move further up simply because of the way that charter rates will continue to support based on locked-in or realizable cash flow and increase in values. Moving on to the next slide 10.

On the top left, we have illustrated the time charter rate momentum in a way of candlestick illustration, what you can see is that there is a continuous increase, and there's no real slowdown in terms of momentum when it comes to charter rates. On the top right, you can see the average periods, and I think that is, as I said earlier, that is a very important factor to consider that we're not just seeing higher rates, we are actually seeing firmer periods. This means in the region 1,000 TEU- 5,000 TEU, we're looking at average periods of around two years. Having said that, when looking at our own fleet, we presently actually see 18 or rather 24 months being a standard period for smaller vessels, up to 1,700 TEU, and more in the vicinity of 30 - 36 months for vessels above that size.

Combined with continuously strengthening rates, this obviously is very positive for tonnage providers like ourselves that have vessels coming open in the foreseeable future. That is also another aspect that you can see at the bottom left, that vessel availability going forward will get tighter and tighter, especially due to the fact that vessels are being fixed for longer periods, i.e., they will not be available to the charter market that frequently as was the case, for example, during the last 10- 12 years, where we were always looking at shorter charter periods and more flexible redelivery windows. Looking at the fundamentals on the next slide 11. As you can see on the left-hand side, we have illustrated the supply-demand development for the total market, with the blue line being supply growth and the red line being demand growth.

Last year, we have, for the reasons known, seen a negative demand growth as a result of the COVID pandemic. However, it is worth noting that this negative demand growth was mainly triggered by the period between February, March, and July, where we have exposed, due to lockdowns and other measures, have seen a significant decline in volumes, and the latter part of last year was already showing a completely different picture. That is important to note for this year. Clear growth in demand is expected with around 6%-7% for the overall market, whilst the supply growth is expected to be comparably or significantly lower for the overall market based on the existing order book. It is worth noting in that respect that 2021 and 2022, the order book is basically capped and so on, so there's no further supply coming to the market.

If you then look at the top right, which drills down the supply-demand dynamics to intra-regional trades, the trades in which we are involved and which is our focus, you can see that especially the supply side shows a significantly different picture than in the overall market because the supply growth for the next two to three years is dominated by the large ships and it's basically zero in the segments we are involved in. Whilst at the same time, we expect more significant demand growth as a result of certain trends, which I'll elaborate on in a minute. Now looking a bit closer at the supply side on slide 12. At the top left, you can see the order book to fleet ratio, and as I mentioned, there has been a significant increase in ordering activity, pretty much geared towards larger sizes.

You can see the developments in terms of order book at the top right, top basically line on the top right where we show the changes since October 2020 in the different sizes. As you can see, there has been a predominant run for the very large container ships in terms of ordering activity. Yet 17.6%, considering especially the age profile of the fleet and the expected demand growth, is nothing to be overly concerned about in our view, especially if you look at our segment and intra-regional trades in particular. As you can see at the bottom left, the age profile of vessels between 1,000 and 5,000 TEU, you have roughly 40% of the fleet being above 15 years of age. Just to remember, the average age of our vessels is 13 and a half years. We are pretty much in the midpoint of the fleet profile.

There's a significant number of vessels being aged 15 or above, and this is very important when also looking at ordering activity in our segment. To move on from supply to demand. On the left side, we have, again, following the logic, looking at the total market and specifically at intra-regional trades. I think first and foremost, it's important to explain that 54% of the total amount of container vessels is actually, so that's around five million TEU, is actually deployed on intra-regional trade. It is a very relevant part of the global trading pattern. That's why we have focused a lot on these trades with our fleet in particular. The demand growth is expected to be positive. We've seen 2020 obviously not a good year, but with the exception of 2020 and 2009, we have always seen growth in demand for additional TEU volumes.

In intra-regional trades, amongst others, let's say, measures to make the supply chain a bit more resilient, the growth in particular in Southeast Asian countries and other stimulus packages, that we believe there's certainly a significant growth potential in particular in the intra-Asian market. From the markets to the company specifics, let me run you through slide 15, where we have basically illustrated our charter backlog and also certain charter book. At the top left, you can see the different quarters for this year in terms of fixed operating days evolving obviously quite dynamically as we are fixing vessels. You can see at the right part of the top left graph, the basically coverage for 2021, 2022, and 2023. That is talking days.

If you then look at the secured revenues, please refer to the text on the right-hand side where we have illustrated or basically named the different charter backlog for the respective years. We look at around $220 million for 2021 already locked in, roughly $138 million for 2022, and so forth. Looking forward, especially the increased charter duration and charter periods will add to the visibility and also certainty about revenues going forward with another roughly 25 - 28 vessels coming up for renewal in the course of the next couple of quarters. We believe that we will have a significantly higher visibility on the basis of current market environment with the long periods for our earnings for the upcoming two to three years. Oh, sorry, the bottom left illustrates the counterparties by contract.

It's quite a diverse pool, obviously, with the main liner companies being key customers of ours when you look at charter coverage. At the bottom right, in more detail, we have illustrated what has already been fixed, which is shown in light gray part of the columns, as well as upcoming renewals for the next quarters or basically until year-end. You see our expectation based on current re-delivery windows, is that we will have another roughly 25-28 vessels to be renewed in the course of Q2, Q3, and Q4. On that note, let me move on to the next slide, where we look at the operating leverage, which is obviously very important in our view, and has been a key ingredient strategically in our DNA to try to operate vessels with a significant operational leverage.

If you look at the bridge shown basically from left to right, you can see that our Q1 cash break-even per vessel and day was around $7,900 per vessel and day. If you put that in context with market reference data from Clarksons, and that's based on the basket of representing the MPCC fleet, basically, we look at spot rates of around $25,160 today. Of course, we have a existing charter book, and of course, not all vessels are available for renewal at the same point in time. This is just an indication of where we stand and where the spot market stands. Looking at what I said earlier, it's important to understand these spot rates not as spot rates for a one to three-month contract. These rates are actually rates that you can lock in for a prolonged period.

Spot is just the nature of the point in time. It doesn't necessarily reflect the period. We have also put that in context with the 20 average of Clarksons of around $12,000 per day looking at our basket. That basically illustrates the significant operational leverage that we can benefit from in this very strong charter market, especially given the coverage that we have in place, plus even more so the upcoming charter renewals. Let me wrap up this presentation and open the floor for questions with our last slide 17. First of all, from left to right, looking at the market, our corporate, and then, of course, the outlook.

I think short-term momentum is extremely strong and continues to get stronger basically by the day, and we see ourselves as being ideally positioned to continue to participate in the current upswing with attractive periods and very attractive charter rates, whilst at the same time having already secured a significant charter backlog over the last three quarters. In the midterm, as I explained, the supply/demand dynamics are interesting, are favorable, in our view, in particular for intra-regional trades and intra-regional vessel sizes. At least in our segment, there's not a significant order book. We, however, do expect that more orders will come into the market. Looking at the age profile of the intra-regional fleet, we believe this is also necessary as a very least in order to cope with the expected demand growth, even if it's less than the expectation currently is for 2021.

In the long term, of course, there are a few uncertainties. The industry landscape will be affected by the energy transition and decarbonization effects. We believe, however, that with our fleet in terms of age profile, charter backlog, and delivering capacity and investment capacity, we believe we are very well-positioned for the transition into new technologies over the next couple of years to come. Looking at our corporate profile, we have a very clear focus on intra-region trades. We will continue with that focus to own and operate vessels that operate in intra-regional trades. As I said, a sector where we see extremely compelling demand and supply developments ahead. At the same time, we do expect a very favorable demand growth in intra-regional trades going forward.

Overall, we expect to see the continuation of a compelling market development in 2021, and we believe we are very well positioned to benefit from that. It is the combination of strong cash generation, whilst at the same time having extremely low residual value risk and very low leverage, and of course, a focus on a very prudent capital allocation strategy, which we believe makes up MPC Container Ships attractiveness as an investment in the shipping sector. In terms of looking forward, we believe with the current portfolio, the charter backlog, and the upcoming renewals, we are positioned very resilient when it comes to potential market volatility. At the same time, we are well positioned to benefit from the market ahead. On that note, I would very much like to hand over to you, moderator, and I'm looking forward to receiving your questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, please press the pound or hash key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.

Constantin Baack
CEO, MPC Container Ships

There are a few questions through the web which I'm happy to read out and answer as we go through. The first question comes from Jonathan Hansen, his question is: how is the options for charterers to cancel their agreements. We are looking at firm charter contracts. There is no such option available to cancel the contract. It is a firm commitment, it is a firm contract, including period and rate. No such option exists. The second question comes from that's a pretty long question, I will have to read it out first to try to summarize it. That is a question by Harry Oltruce. He's asking about expectations on daily costs, vessels including everything, also dry dock installations for the year 2021 and 2022 respectively.

First of all, 2021 will be a year with comparably high number of dockings, just by virtue of the age profile of our fleet. We are looking at, for 2021, we are looking at investing CapEx over the whole company of around $35 million. That includes dry docking as well as maintenance CapEx and others. For the year 2022, we look more at CapEx in the vicinity of $26 million as a result of a lower number of dockings. That's the first part of the question. The second part is relating to the operating cash break even of around $6,200, comparing that with $8,400 in 2020. The difference there is that the operating is excluding interest and excluding CapEx, that's number one. Number two is that 2020 was still affected by kind of spillover effects of our scrubber program.

There are a few extraordinary items in the 2020 number, which we, however, have normalized out when looking at our end of 2020 reporting. It's important to compare operating cash break even with full cost cash break even. The question goes on, let me just read that out. The next part is basically alluding to refinancing and repayment of debts, which will contribute positively to both profit and opportunities for investments, dividends in the coming year. Yes, that's actually not a question. In your presentation, utilization excluding dry dock. Yeah, it's a different measure. There's a question around how we report utilization. One is obviously, and that's the industry standard, like all container tonnage providers do, where you take out dry dock, therefore, we report both numbers separately. More detail in our quarterly report, which you can read up.

If you have further questions on that, please feel free to reach out to our IR mailbox. We're happy to provide the respective references. Then last barrage of questions related to steel prices. Steel prices are up 7% over the last six months, and new building orders get canceled. Yes, that's true. That will definitely add to a further delay in new supply coming to the market. I hope I have answered all the questions from that gentleman, and I would like to move on to a question by Eric Gundersen. There is a question, what are your plans with regards to dividends? As I said, we have a very, let's say, proven view in terms of capital allocation. We look at what creates value for shareholders.

I think at this juncture, delevering the company financially is certainly one of the key priorities, and optimizing the balance sheet structure. That is priority number one. Of course, returning capital to investors is on the cards as well. Given that we still have a significant number of charter renewals coming up in the second half of this year, we will take a view together with the board towards the second half of this year in that respect. We're always obviously comparing the different capital allocation options, and I think at this stage, delevering financially is priority one. If opportunities arise, we also want to make use of those, but returning capital to investors is certainly a very relevant subject as well. The next question comes from uncertain . How do you see inflation affecting MPC?

I would say inflation wouldn't be a bad thing because we own real assets, so we believe that will rather positively contribute to values when you look at real assets such as container ships. There is another question by Eric Gundersen, who's asking what our plans are in terms of refinancing given that your debt is not due until 2023. Of course, if you look at the market circumstances at present, both the container markets as well as the credit markets are in a very firm condition. Looking at potential refinancing is definitely something we are considering. However, there is no rush. Usually, you want to look at refinancings when you can and not when you have to. We are definitely looking at all options available, but we're in no rush as of today.

We will definitely, and we are in fact exploring options in that respect. There's a question by Erik Brunvik. He says his question is a bit macro-oriented on the demand side. How do you view the demand growth currently, and why is it so much stronger than in 2018 and 2019? Do you believe there is an element of restocking at suppliers, retail, et cetera, at the moment ahead of post-COVID reopening, which caused a temporary surge in demand? The next question is also whether we think the demand for goods may decline a bit over the next month as consumers can spend more money on activities, et cetera. First of all, looking at restocking, yes, of course, there is quite a bit of restocking. If you look at the inventory-to-sales ratios, in the U.S., for example, they are at a 28-year low.

Whilst there has been quite a bit of restocking, there is significantly more restocking needed. In fact, due to changed consumer behavior, in particular when it comes to e-commerce, it's all about lead times. I would rather expect restocking or the restocking to certainly exceed prior levels. As I said, we are nowhere near prior levels. I would actually think that it's not an element that I'm concerned about looking at the demand side. It's actually something I'm rather positive about, to be frank. Then the question is whether there might be a shift from goods back to services as a result of the reopening. Yes, that's certainly something that could happen. Looking at the tight situation in terms of vessel availability, I think this is nothing to immediately affect us.

There is potentially, I think we're all happy when we can go on holidays again and consume differently. There is still a very strong, as I said, restocking necessity that I'm expecting going forward. There's another question by Helge Olshus regarding the splicing of shares. This is an element of uncertainty, and it is unclear how it should be interpreted. That is alluding to the AGM and to the authority to the board to potentially run a share split. Obviously, this is just an option. This is nothing that will happen automatically, and it's obviously subject to also share trading. We have quite a high number of shares at the moment due to the private placement and subsequent offering in last year. We basically want to have the opportunity to consider a share split depending on share values.

At these levels, I think it's not necessary, but it's something where the authority is in place for the board. I hope that clarifies the situation. There's a question by Kenneth McGrath regarding a reverse split of shares. I think that I covered just now. There's a question about a listing on the U.S. market in future. It's nothing we actively work on. It's something one should always have on the radar if it adds value to achieving the company goals and increasing shareholder value. There's nothing lined up as yet. We have looked at it in the past, but we feel also very comfortable with our listing on the Oslo Stock Exchange. That's nothing that we are actively pursuing at this point in time. Another question by Miguel Fei, asking about a level around the inflation threat being a good thing for MPC.

Why is that the case? Thank you. I'm not saying it's necessarily a good thing, but I'm saying I'm not particularly concerned owning real assets because obviously the value of real assets in an inflation environment is rather supported in my view. That's what I was alluding to when I made that comment. I hope that clarifies this question. There's more coming in. There's a question by Eirik Lilesveen . Is there anything specific being done to prevent virus outbreak on ships? This indeed is a very tangible and relevant challenge and concern. There is a very clear procedure that crew members joining vessels or leaving vessels have to go through different testing procedures in terms of the days prior to joining a vessel or prior to leaving a vessel. However, it unfortunately cannot always be ruled out.

We had instances of COVID on board of the vessels, unfortunately, leading to also downtime and deviations to some extent, that we do our utmost in very close coordination with our crew managers and our technical managers to prevent that from happening. There is indeed a very clear procedure to address the risk that you are alluding to. I think that's at least it for the time being in terms of questions through the web. I don't know, moderator, whether there are any questions through your line. Otherwise, we will hold for a second to see whether further questions will come up.

Operator

We have a question over the phone, sir. It's come from the line of Frode Mørkedal. Please ask your question.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Sorry if you already covered it, I came in a bit later, but when you look at the upcoming renewals, could you maybe indicate, let's say after this summer when you've done a lot of renewals, let's say what percentage of 2022 you expect to have booked at that time?

Constantin Baack
CEO, MPC Container Ships

Sure. As I said, we have around 25 - 28, and that's a bit of a range because our redelivery will depend on the schedule as well. We expect by the end of Q2 to have around 55%-60% of the days for 2022 covered. Again, that's on the assumption that the charter periods that we can fix vessels upon does not change, right? If that changes, then that will be affected. Assuming a sideways movement in terms of periods, that will be the coverage of days. The rest is then obviously rolling forward the current rates. That's then depending on how firm the rates are, whether they increase, et cetera. We will then have a respective revenue coverage, which I would assume is probably in the same vicinity, but it obviously depends on your rate assumptions to some extent.

I think the days covered indication is probably in the vicinity of 55% end of Q2 for 2022, and probably somewhere between 70% and 75% in terms of days covered towards the end of Q3 accordingly. We then move towards 80% towards the end of the year if all those charters get renewed at these periods.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Which is really important, right? If you look at what Maersk is saying, they think this market will stay strong, so to speak, throughout this year. It seems like you should be able to book the majority of next year at least before any potential softening in this market, right?

Constantin Baack
CEO, MPC Container Ships

Absolutely. I think it's worth noting, I alluded to that earlier, I don't know whether you were on the call back then already, Frode, smaller vessels up to two years or basically two years is almost the standard. Below 1,700 and basically 30-36 months is the standard for the larger vessels by now. Every ship that gets covered two to three years, means we are also looking at enhanced visibility for 2023, right? There, again, that also depends on the periods, of course, there we would also be looking at towards Q3, Q4, probably at somewhere between 40%-50% of the days covered for 2023 if periods stay the same.

Speaker 3

Yeah. That's great. Maybe you could indicate, let's say run rate EBITDA, if you look at the current three years charter rates or something like that, what would be, let's say, the run rate EBITDA per quarter going forward?

Constantin Baack
CEO, MPC Container Ships

Yeah, if you look at. I'm just looking at the slides, wherever that is. It's slide 16. Maybe we can bring it up here. There you can run your annualization, right? We're looking at. That's spot rates now, right? Current spot rates. You're having. Let's make it simple. Let's have to say $25,000. Let's say $8,000 in cost. You're basically at $17,000 per day. We have around 20,500 days available. You would run 20,500 days times 17,000 in EBITDA, right? I don't have a calculator with me. Benjamin, do you have that? That would obviously mean you disregard any existing charter book. That would translate on the spot rate basis into an annualized EBITDA of $340 million. Again, we have an existing charter book. We have quite a bit covered already, right?

I think the numbers are provided on slide 15 quite transparently in terms of what is the cover already. That's probably the math then to make based on rate assumptions, right? This is the annualized run rate that is possible at these spot rates.

Speaker 3

Yeah. It's based on your guidance for the full year, like the $140 million, it seems like the EBITDA should be going from $20 million towards $50 million by the end of, let's say Q4, right? The numbers you just gave indicate more than $80 million EBITDA per quarter run rate. This seems to be quite.

Constantin Baack
CEO, MPC Container Ships

Let me cash flow.

Speaker 3

Yeah, okay. Sorry.

Constantin Baack
CEO, MPC Container Ships

Please continue, Frode Mørkedal.

Speaker 3

No, I was finished. Just given where this cash flow is heading, it's just a matter of time before you're net debt zero, right? I'm curious, when you look ahead, let's say three to five years ahead, where do you think MPC would be? What's your long-term goals? Given the strong cash flow coming in the next few years, which seems to be already booked.

Constantin Baack
CEO, MPC Container Ships

Yes, you allude to it, we will be very quickly net debt zero. Being net debt zero is obviously no kind of ultimate goal of a company, but it's obviously a reflection of the earnings capacity. Our goal is to be kind of a low-risk investment in the shipping space, right, in a segment which we believe is very attractive when looking at supply dynamics. I personally believe vessels in our sector will at least run until 25 years. We will also have the ability, should the market get a bit more bumpy at a fairly low-leverage level, to also make use of opportunities, of course, also to return capital to investors. I think strategically, we will continue to focus on intra-region tonnage that might increase in size over time.

To be kind of a tonnage provider that at some stage will renew the fleet once we have more certainty about propulsion technology, etcetera, it's definitely something to consider. To do that from a very low risk position. At the same time, of course, and that is important also in a market like this, as part of the capital allocation strategy, have returning capital to investors as one of the ingredients.

Speaker 3

Yeah, makes sense. Just a final question on the, maybe you talked about it, but the EEXI. I'm curious to know if you have done study on your own fleet or maybe if you have any thoughts about the wider container ship fleet, right, in order to reach those carbon emission regulations. What would be the impact? How large of a share of the fleet have to slow down the speed, for instance?

Constantin Baack
CEO, MPC Container Ships

Yeah. I know that this is a subject that is being discussed up and down, and we have, of course, looked at EEXI implications for our very own fleet. Of course, the formula is yet to be finally defined by the IMO, which will take place in June in all likelihood. That's at least our expectation. We have run preliminary figures. We expect that certain engine power limitation measures are required on a lot of vessels, not just in our fleet, but in general. Having said that, in particular on our vessels, when looking at the trading profile, the question is, will a engine power limitation actually affect the trading profile? Will it just cap, let's say, the upper part of your speed curve?

When we look at our vessels, actually 60% of the vessels will not be affected at all, so they will not run slower. It's important to understand that not for all vessels, a EPL, so engine power limitation exercise will actually change the speed at which they operate. Because most of the vessels, especially the vessels built, let's say pre 2010, with larger main engines, et cetera, will actually not necessarily run slower on the trades they operate in. I think to answer that question globally, is very difficult because you would need to factor in the specific trading profile. If people answer that as a global number, I think they are pretty brave, and they seem to have more visibility than we have on all the trading pattern of all the vessels. I would be very careful on that path.

There will certainly be some implications. I do expect the overall market to go slower. I do expect that vessels will be affected that probably not run in trades where they already now run slow. There is an implication, and that's certainly a positive one for capacity.

Speaker 3

Yes, indeed. Thank you very much.

Constantin Baack
CEO, MPC Container Ships

Thanks, Frode. I don't know, operator, whether there are further questions through the line. There's one more here through the web. There's one question about whether it's possible to get some further information about the pool MPCC is joining, expecting earnings per vessel in the pool seems to be rather low, et cetera. What are the reasons for joining the pool and not operating the vessels by yourself? Okay. Basically, we operate a number of vessels, 1,300 and 1,500 TEUs in a pool together with one other owner.

It's not that the pool dictates what to do. We are the largest contributor to this pool, so the charter strategy is basically being given by us. Pool does not necessarily mean both vessels operate on short-term charters. It does mean that the earnings are pooled. One reason to run this pool is because we have a certain regional focus, and that is on vessels with high reefer container capacity, operating predominantly in Latin America and the Caribbean, where we have a very strong footprint with that pool and with our fleet in particular. Chartering-wise, that pool will reflect pretty much our chartering strategy. Looking at the pool was quite helpful during last year, because we were able to, given the larger fleet, basically buffer a bit the negative market, but it takes slightly longer now, obviously, to digest and grow into the good charters.

Just as an example, we have just yesterday, a 1,500 TEU vessel in that pool was fixed for 24 months at $20,800 today. There's also coverage in the pool. That coverage is increasing. If you look at the rates, which we have also illustrated at the second last page of the earnings call presentation, there we have provided a guidance as far as expected financial year 2021 gross pool rate is concerned for the different classes. Indeed, that is at a slightly lower level than spot rates, but that's just a function of digesting the existing pool book. Going forward, I expect that to catch up accordingly. Here you can see that slide, if you have that in front of you.

At the bottom here, we have run some explanations on pool earnings, which obviously will increase over time. That was the question on the pool. Just seeing whether there are further questions. Operator, are there further questions through the line?

Operator

Once again, for any questions over the phone, please press star one on your telephone keypad. There are no further questions. Please continue.

Constantin Baack
CEO, MPC Container Ships

Okay. If there are no further questions, I would like to thank everyone for their interest, and for listening in, and for raising questions. Thank you, operator. We are certainly looking forward to a very exciting 2021, and continue to enjoy the ride in this historic container market. If there are any further questions, please feel free to reach out through the IR function on our website. Many thanks for your attendance. Many thanks, operator. Take care. Bye.