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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

May 5, 2022

Kari Lindtvedt
Head of Investor Relations, Orkla

Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of Orkla's Q1 results. My name is Kari Lindtvedt. I'm Head of Investor Relations. With me in the auditorium today, we have our newly appointed President and CEO, Mr. Nils K. Selte, and the newly appointed Executive Vice President of Orkla Branded Consumer Goods, Mr. Atle Vidar Nagel Johansen. Unfortunately, our CFO, [Reglang, is recovering from some mild illness and was not able to join us today. I will present the financials in his place. During the presentation today, you're welcome to post questions on the live chat. At the end of this session, we will take questions from the audience here in the auditorium and also address the questions from the web. Now, Nils will share some of his thoughts on Orkla and also the main headlines for the quarter. Please, Nils.

Nils Selte
President and CEO, Orkla

Thank you, Kari, and good morning, and to all of you, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Nils K. Selte, and this is my first set of results since becoming President and CEO last month. Overall, I'm pleased to say that we deliver group Adjusted EBIT growth of 18% this quarter, as well as 7.7% organic growth for the BCG area. I will come back to further highlight shortly, and Kari will also take us through the figures in more detail. Before that, I want to spend a few moments sharing some of my initial thoughts on Orkla. As many of you probably know, I've been a member of the board since 2014, which gives me a good understanding of the business and the structure of Orkla.

At the same time as Orkla's strategic direction, announced at the Capital Markets Day in November, remains unchanged, we are accelerating some initiatives which we believe will help deliver faster and higher value creation going forward. We have already started the process of looking into how we can give the business areas and units more independence so that we can respond quicker to opportunities in a fast-changing and at times unpredictable world. We have reorganized Orkla Foods, Orkla Confectionery & Snacks, and Orkla Care under the experienced leadership of Atle Vidar. He has a strong team of business area leaders with extensive commercial and operational experience to follow up on the BCG area and agenda. We already have good momentum, and I strongly believe that there is a lot of potential for value creation in this part of Orkla.

The reorganization of the BCG area frees up capacity for me and the group executive board to work on structural opportunities and capital allocation consideration in line with our long-term strategic direction. What I mean by this, I want to refer back to the Capital Markets Day. We will apply a more dynamic approach to our portfolio management. M&A will continue to be an important part of our value creation journey, and going forward, we will be more open to various ownership structures such as JVs, IPOs, or other forms of value-creating partnerships. All these three points being important for the value creation and part of the consideration when it comes to capital allocation. Before I leave the floor to Kari again, let's turn to the main financial highlights for the quarter. As I said, we deliver group EBIT adjusted growth of 18% in the quarter.

Improved profit in hydropower were offset by negative development in BCG. Organic growth in branded consumer goods was 7.7% in the period, compared to 0.5% growth for the same quarter last year. This development was driven by volume growth and price increases. Despite the good top-line growth, Adjusted EBIT for branded consumer goods was negative by 2.4%. Power prices was significantly higher than Q1 last year, resulting in strong profit growth for hydropower. Adjusted earnings per share ended at NOK 1.24 in the quarter. I will now leave the floor back to Kari, and I will sum up more later in the presentation. Thank you.

Kari Lindtvedt
Head of Investor Relations, Orkla

Thank you, Nils. As you may have already noticed, we have not made any changes to our financial reporting structure this quarter. We are currently looking into this, and we expect to be back during the H2 of the year with more detail. Now let's have a look at the financial performance for Q1. Reported revenue growth for branded consumer goods was 14.4% in the quarter. Acquired companies contributed 8.8%. Earnings for branded consumer goods, including head office, decreased by 2.4% in the same period, and I will come back to that. Improvement for industrial and financial investments was mainly driven by hydropower.

We have net non-recurring items of -NOK 162 million in the quarter, mainly related to the cost and write-down of our Russian operations, Hamé Foods. Additionally, we had some M&A costs, primarily driven by the acquisition of Healthspan Group in February. The corresponding period last year included costs of NOK 72 million related to ERP projects. Profit from associates decreased by 28% or NOK 93 million, mainly related to Jotun. Net financial items were slightly higher due to higher debt levels. The effective tax rate, excluding associates, was higher in the quarter compared to last year. The most important driver was increase in natural resource tax due to strong profit growth in hydropower. Additionally, the write-down of Hamé in Russia is not tax deductible. Adjusted earnings per share ended down by 2.4% in the quarter.

Now let's have a look at the cash flow. Cash flow from operations was NOK 430 million in the Q1 . The cash flow from operations in Branded Consumer Goods was lower than in 2021. This was mainly explained by higher working capital as a result of higher stock values due to increased raw material prices, and also an increase in contingency stock. The working capital was also negatively affected by increased activity levels in Orkla Food Ingredients. Next, let's walk through the net interest-bearing debt bridge. Net debt, including leases, increased by NOK 613 million to NOK 13.4 billion. The main cash outlay in the quarter was related to acquisitions. Expansion CapEx was limited in the quarter and includes expanded production capacity for plant-based in Orkla Foods and in Orkla Food Ingredients.

Positive currency translation effects as a result of a stronger NOK reduced the net debt level by NOK 425 million. This leaves us with net debt, including leasing liabilities, of NOK 13.4 billion, and the corresponding figure excluding leasing was NOK 11.5 billion. Orkla still has a strong financial position. Our net debt level at the end of Q1 corresponds to 1.5 times EBITDA. EBITDA based on the last twelve months where acquired businesses have been included. This is well within our ambition to not exceed 2.5 times EBITDA over time. Now let's have a look at Branded Consumer Goods. Let's start with the top-line performance for Branded Consumer Goods. Reported revenue grew by 13.4%.

Structural changes had net positive impact of 8.8%, while there was a negative FX translation effect of -3.1%. Organic revenue growth was 7.7% in the quarter, and this was a result of both volume and price increases, where the price component is roughly two-thirds of the growth. If we exclude Orkla Food Ingredients, that has a recovery element from COVID in its numbers, we still deliver volume growth. Let's have a look at the organic growth and how it's distributed per business area. There have been large variations between our business areas for several consecutive quarters now, and this is still the case in Q1. The out-of-home channel continues to recover, especially benefiting Orkla Food Ingredients, Orkla Wound Care, and also Orkla Foods Foodservice and Convenience channels.

On the contrary, the positive reopening effects in the out-of-home channels, we saw some categories experiencing a decline in the grocery channel after a period of exceptional market growth related to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. This was particularly the case for confectionery and snacks in Norway and home and personal care in Norway. Also, our painting tools business in Consumer Investments experienced lower activity in the do-it-yourself segment, facing strong comparable figures from Q1 2021. Now let's have a look at our prioritized growth areas. As we communicated at our Capital Markets Day in November, our three prioritized growth areas are consumer health, our European pizza franchise platform, and plant-based. We are still confident that these three areas will be important platforms for growth going forward.

Consumer health grew sales by 32% on a reported basis, and this was mainly driven by structural growth from acquired businesses. Organic growth for consumer health was 4.5%. We have grown our out-of-home pizza business significantly over the last 12 months through the acquisition of New York Pizza and three smaller German chains. The underlying growth for consumer sales was 8% and both Kotipizza and New York Pizza showed positive growth rates in consumer sales. When it comes to plant-based, reported growth was 15% in the quarter and organic growth was 20%, whereas organic growth for Orkla's branded products was 7%. The difference here is a manufacturing contract which supports our scale advantages and also capability development. Let's move to earnings performance for branded consumer goods.

EBIT for branded consumer goods, including head office, decreased by 2.4% in the quarter, reflecting a 7.3% underlying decline offset by structural growth from acquired companies. The underlying decline was mainly caused by increased prices for raw materials, packaging, transport, and electricity. This now applies to all our business areas. Other costs also include to be seen in connection with increased activity levels and higher sales volumes compared to a year ago. This is particularly the case for Orkla Food Ingredients. On the right-hand side of the slide, you can see that Adjusted EBIT margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points on a rolling twelve-month basis. The underlying performance in the twelve-month period was minus 1.4 percentage points.

Orkla has started to compensate the adverse cost effects by increasing prices to our customers through 2021 and also in Q1 2022. As a result of continued cost inflation, we will implement further price increases in the coming quarters. Now, the chart on the left behind me here serves for illustrative purposes and shows a well-known trend. Looking at the market indexes, it's important to bear in mind that they are based on global prices. Orkla has a more regional procurement scope, and we also source categories from protected European and Norwegian markets, where pricing compared to world markets may differ. We exploit scale advantages through our centralized procurement function, and for several major raw material categories, we have long-term or medium-term contracts.

Historically, the length of these contracts have been approximately 6-12 months, but due to the challenging supply chain situation at the moment, the length of these contracts have currently come down. Now, let me remind you of our raw material exposure and our cost breakdown. In total, the material cost, that means including raw materials, finished goods, and packaging, is approximately equivalent to 50% of revenue in branded consumer goods. The raw material spend in 2021 was approximately 50% of this again, equivalent to approximately NOK 13 billion. Our top five categories, excluding packaging, are vegetable oils, additives, dairy, grain-based products, and meat. Combined, these five make up a cost base of approximately NOK 7 billion, more or less equally distributed.

Orkla's exposure to euro is approximately equivalent to NOK 4 billion and approximately NOK half a billion to US dollars. With this in mind, let me then remind you of the mechanisms that we are facing for adjusting our prices to our customers. In the Nordics, the markets are fairly regulated and follows a firm schedule with the same dates for price changes every year. In Norway, this takes place twice a year, in February and in July. In Sweden and Finland, different categories have different set dates. However, for all these dates, there is typically a notification period of up to three months, and in some instances, up to six months. This creates a lag in profitability in markets with constantly rising costs and an inability to fully hedge our input cost.

Orkla Food Ingredients follows this price window structure to a lesser extent due to higher business to business exposure. Some mechanics are also true in this business area. We will now sum up financials for each business area. Atle Vidar will start off with Orkla Foods and Confectionery & Snacks and Care.

Atle Vidar Nagel Johansen
EVP of Orkla Branded Consumer Goods, Orkla

Thank you, Kari. Good morning, everyone. Orkla Foods reported revenue increase of 11.4% in the Q1 , of which 7.2% was organic growth. The sales growth was broad-based across all markets. The growth was good in food service, in convenience, and in exports, which were all positively affected by the reopening after the pandemic in several markets. Growth in the grocery channel was also moderately positive in the quarter. EBIT grew 4.7%, largely driven by the revenue growth. While the margin was negatively affected by higher input costs, as Kari has presented. The trend with steep cost increases across categories continued in Q1, and was further intensified with the outbreak of the Ukraine war.

The improvement in EBIT in this quarter for Foods should be seen in light of the go live with the new ERP system in Sweden in Q1 last year, which incurred higher cost and temporarily a lower productivity. Significant price increases have been implemented throughout all markets, while the latest cost pressure arising from the geopolitical situation requires further pricing actions this year. Let's move to Confectionery & Snacks. Orkla Confectionery & Snacks had an organic decline of 1.1% in the quarter. Sales were negatively affected by a general market contraction after two strong years of market growth driven by the pandemic restrictions. This was particularly the case for the Norwegian market. Sales growth was also negatively affected by the removal of the sugar tax in Norway at the beginning of quarter one last year.

This tax removal led to high demand in the corresponding quarter last year, and in addition, the timing of Easter, compared to last year, had a slight negative effect. Earnings declined by 20.7% in the quarter. Also for this business area, input costs, transport and packaging increased significantly. Also here, price increases will take effect successively through 2022. Let's have a look at performance in Orkla Care. Orkla Care had a sales growth of 18.9%, which was 5.9% organic growth. Organic growth was supported by the reopening of international markets for Orkla Home and Personal Care, for Orkla Wound Care, and for the business-to-business channel. The online business, HSNG, continued to see a strong sales increase to the fitness markets.

On the other hand, Orkla Home & Personal Care in Norway experienced a demanding market situation with strong sales last year driven by the pandemic restrictions. Orkla Health was negatively affected by the Ukraine war in the quarter with regard to its exports market in that area and the border trade to Finland. Earnings in Orkla Care declined by 4.4% due to steep cost increases for logistics and raw materials, and thereby driving a margin contraction of 3.2 percentage points compared to last year. Let's turn to Orkla Food Ingredients, and I hand it over to you again, Kari. Thank you.

Kari Lindtvedt
Head of Investor Relations, Orkla

Right. Orkla Food Ingredients delivered organic growth of 21.1% in the quarter. Approximately 60% of the revenue in Orkla Food Ingredients is exposed to the out-of-home channel, where easing of pandemic-related restrictions have impacted sales positively this quarter. Growth was also supported by price increases for Orkla Food Ingredients, and the Adjusted EBIT margin was positively impacted by volume, although still hampered by cost inflation and challenging supply chain in certain areas. The demanding delivery situation has been handled well so far, but the challenges are ongoing and coupled with increased input costs. Now, let's have a look at performance in Orkla Consumer Investments. Orkla Consumer Investments reported a sales increase of 14.4% and organic growth of -4.3%.

The main driver for organic sales, the organic sales decline, was a drop in demand for painting tools compared to high levels in corresponding period last year. This was somewhat offset by continued growth in our pizza franchise business. Adjusted EBIT declined by 19.5% in the quarter, mostly driven by the revenue drop in painting tools, primarily in the U.K. High transport, raw material cost continued to impact several business units, and price mitigating actions have only partly offset this so far. Lastly, some comments on Jotun. Jotun had double-digit sales growth in all segments compared to Q1 last year. Adjusted for currency effects, the underlying sales growth was 17%. The strong growth was driven by volume and price. All segments experienced increased raw material costs, which has led to lower gross margins and operating result.

Price increases and cost mitigating actions have dampened these effects. Jotun decided to suspend its operations in Russia until further notice, and Russia accounted for between 2%-3% of Jotun's operating revenue in 2021. For Jotun, higher inflation, global supply chain challenges, and the COVID situation in China creates higher uncertainty. On the contrary, some markets, like ship newbuilding, are showing progress and could contribute to growth. The company expect continued uptick in input cost and pressure on gross margin that will require further price increases. I will now hand back to Nils for some final comments before we move on to Q&A.

Nils Selte
President and CEO, Orkla

Thank you, Kari. As I said in the introduction, we are accelerating the process of shaping Orkla for the future. By this, I mean creating more independent and empowered business units, and equally being more flexible and agile in our portfolio management and capital allocation. My immediate priorities will be to secure that our brands and products are available to our customers and consumers, and that we will continue to invest in our core brands and categories. We have to compensate higher input cost with further price increases and other mitigating actions over time. We need to ensure that the business areas are empowered and are set to navigate the current business environment, and we need to accelerate our focus on structural opportunities and capital allocation.

I'm very happy to have a strong and hardworking team in place with a good balance of commercial and strategic experience. I'm very excited heading such a great organization with so much potential for value creation going forward. We will now open up for Q&A.

Kari Lindtvedt
Head of Investor Relations, Orkla

Let's start with some questions from the web then. Sorry, from the audience, if there are any in the room. Okay, there seems to be no questions. I believe we have some questions from the web. Maybe we can start off there then. Kjetil, please.

Speaker 4

Yes. We have a twofold question from Ole-Martin Westgaard from DNB. On organic growth, what was the mix between volume and price in Q2? I assume he's meaning in Q1. The second part of the question, can you give some indications on what level of price increases that is needed to offset the current inflation on raw materials in the coming quarters?

Kari Lindtvedt
Head of Investor Relations, Orkla

On a general level, for Branded Consumer Goods, as we said in the presentation, organic growth was 7.7%, and that was driven by both volume and price increases. We also did say that roughly two-thirds of the increase was related to price. There was a part two of the question.

Speaker 4

Yeah. Can you give some indications on what level of price increases that is needed to offset the current inflation on raw materials in coming quarters?

Atle Vidar Nagel Johansen
EVP of Orkla Branded Consumer Goods, Orkla

Should I take that?

Kari Lindtvedt
Head of Investor Relations, Orkla

Please, yes.

Atle Vidar Nagel Johansen
EVP of Orkla Branded Consumer Goods, Orkla

No, of course we cannot, and I don't think we are allowed to either, so sorry about that.

Speaker 4

We go to Markus Heiberg from Kepler. For Orkla Branded Consumer Goods generally, and Foods specifically, what was the food service volume compared with Q1 to 2021 and 2019?

Atle Vidar Nagel Johansen
EVP of Orkla Branded Consumer Goods, Orkla

As we have said, it was a strong growth in the food service sector, but we don't comment specific detail on each channel in each market. Yes, we saw a stronger food service market in Q1.

Speaker 4

Is the approximately two-thirds of growth related to price also representative for Orkla Foods? That's also from Markus Heiberg in Kepler Cheuvreux.

Atle Vidar Nagel Johansen
EVP of Orkla Branded Consumer Goods, Orkla

Yeah. Sorry about that, Heiberg, we don't comment on that detail level either. I may remind you that Foods is 40% part of the totality, so that's a guidance.

Speaker 4

The third question from Markus Heiberg, how do you see consumer behavior develop over recent months? Any signs of increased price sensitivity?

Atle Vidar Nagel Johansen
EVP of Orkla Branded Consumer Goods, Orkla

Yeah, I can elaborate on that. So far, we have not seen any strong signs of a total change in consumer behavior. What comes ahead, we can only speculate. With the price increases that Kari showed, we probably should expect to see some changes.

Speaker 4

We have three questions from John Ennis in Goldman Sachs. First one, can you break down organic sales and growth in the quarter between price and volume? I believe that one is now answered. Second, we can do them one by one. You cite the need to take further pricing throughout the year. Can you talk about how the price negotiations work in your main markets of Norway and Sweden? How frequently can you renegotiate price increases with retailers, and when is the next pricing round?

Kari Lindtvedt
Head of Investor Relations, Orkla

I think that was summed up in the presentation, and then we can maybe repeat that bilaterally if there's still a need to.

Speaker 4

Then the last question from Mr. John Ennis. On portfolio review, are you, as you look at the various subcategories of which Orkla operates, do you think that all of them have a future part of the Orkla group, or is there need to streamline your operations? Related to this, how will you describe your capital allocation priorities?

Nils Selte
President and CEO, Orkla

I think, I'm not in a position where I would like to give a specific comment on that. I've been basically one month in the chair. I will revert to that when we have something to announce to the market.

Speaker 4

There is a follow-up from Markus Heiberg in Kepler. On your reorganization, there are still material parts of your new BCG portfolio that are not directly linked to growth areas outlined at the Capital Markets Day. Is it fair to assume that you will focus on the BCG portfolio in these areas?

Nils Selte
President and CEO, Orkla

I'm not sure if I really understood that question.

Atle Vidar Nagel Johansen
EVP of Orkla Branded Consumer Goods, Orkla

No. No. I agree. I think we can only reiterate that the strategy stays firm, so the focus on those three areas will go on regardless of the change in organization.

Speaker 4

there is a question from Petter Nielsen: Have you discussed a share buyback program since the share price is at a low level at the moment?

Kari Lindtvedt
Head of Investor Relations, Orkla

Well, we have a very clear capital allocation policy where paying out dividends is the first priority, and then we always look for opportunities to invest in current business or through acquisitions. If we see that we have excess capital over time, we will consider either share buybacks or paying out extraordinary dividends, and that's something we consider, and we have done so historically. Other than that, I can't comment on what we're planning and looking into more specifically.

Speaker 4

This is from Petter Nyström in ABG. Within Consumer Investments, you deliver an EBIT decline of almost five percentage points. Can you shed some light on this and what we should expect in coming quarters?

Kari Lindtvedt
Head of Investor Relations, Orkla

Well, we don't guide forward, I'm afraid. What I can comment on is that a lot of the decline in Consumer Investments was related to the Orkla House Care, where we saw very high levels, especially in the do-it-yourself segment through COVID and through 2021, so we are meeting strong comparables. That's a main driver for the profit decline and also top line, organic top-line decline in the quarter.

Speaker 4

Second question from Petter Nyström in ABG: Which quarter will you have full effect of the initiated price increases?

Kari Lindtvedt
Head of Investor Relations, Orkla

Again, as we did mention through the presentation, the various markets and categories have various dates for when you can adjust prices. That's, you know, a running activity. The main window in Norway where we have a lot of our exposure is 1st of July and 1st of February.

Speaker 4

That was the last question from the web.

Kari Lindtvedt
Head of Investor Relations, Orkla

Are there any more questions from the audience? There seems not to be. I would like to remind you that we will be back with our Q2 results on the 14th of July. Thank you all for joining today, and have a nice day.

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