Prosafe SE (OSL:PRS)
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Apr 24, 2026, 4:25 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q1 2024

May 8, 2024

Terje Askvig
CEO, Prosafe

All right, welcome to this quarter one, 2024 presentation. As usual, if you are joining us virtually, you can ask questions in the chat, and we read them out loud here at the end of the presentation, and if you are here in person, you know, more than happy to answer your questions. But let's take it at the end. So, the first quarter this year, I think, operationally, the four rigs that are working worked very well. I mean, they have high uptime, high utilization, so there are no sort of specific issues. We had 56% utilization in the quarter for-- and that's, you know, for the four working rigs. They are more or less working all the time.

We had some offhire on Safe Eurus due to some minor repairs, but I think, it, it's steady state as far as the operation is concerned. On the financials, EBITDA came in the quarter at $7.2 million, compared to last year, of course, that was stronger. Everything is relative, and in its totality, last year was a negative EBITDA year. So, of course, we are sort of trailing better, relatively speaking, in 2024. Liquidity, cash, end of the quarter, $63 million. That was in line with our expectations. As we have communicated earlier, we are saying that we have runway into 2025, as far as cash is concerned. That is highly dependent on new contracts and sort of the structure on the mobilization fees we can get there.

So I mean, it will be sometimes into 2025, and as I'm sure you all are aware, the debt is maturing at the end of 2025. So this is sort of, I think the cash flow, runway, and refinancing needs to be seen sort of as one measure that we need to deal with. And of course, the financing as such, the refinancing as such, will then be highly dependent on the backlog that we are managing to build up. I come back to the backlog a little bit later, but of course, that this will be an important component of the refinancing. When it comes to the outlook, I would say that we are still optimistic. We did not secure any contracts in the quarter.

That's of course a little bit disappointing. But when that is said, the activity remains the same, and it's just taking longer time. But we see that there is good activity across the different regions. In the North Sea, we are the only available units for 25, and to a large extent, into 2026, so we think we have a good position there, or we do have a good position there. What we see more specifically is that there is one tender out for 25 work in North Sea, in the U.K., and we expect at least one more tender to come out. And, as you know, we have two available units that can work in the North Sea, the Boreas and the Caledonia, that are both laid up, ready to work, warm stacked.

We see we have good dialogue with clients outside the North Sea as well, in different regions. You know, we talk to clients in Africa, we talk to clients in Guyana, and so forth. So we see that there's activity for work coming into 2025 and beyond. But as I said, it has taken longer than what we anticipated to get these across the line. One thing to be specific on Zephyrus, Safe Zephyrus is onto Petrobras. She's expiring in February 2025, and Petrobras has expressed an interest to extend the Zephyrus. So that's a dialogue that we will enter into. Of course, she can also work in different markets, but I think that's a quite an interesting development.

Obviously, I can come back to the market in Brazil, but, you know, it is around, you know, 120-ish, I would say the market rate for maybe $115-$120 in Brazil. So we are optimistic that we'll add more backlog for 2025 and beyond, but it's taken a little bit more time, but we still think the fundamentals look strong. To be then on the fleet, to be a bit more specific, Zephyrus, we talked about. I think the contract there, the extension, is most likely to be... if we do entertain that, and if we sort of get into a contract situation, you're talking about a two-year extension of that contract. She is due SPS in 2025.

There are some details in the back in terms of the cost and so forth, but roughly, we're talking $10 million for the extension. Those are the SPS of the Zephyrus, which was very much in line with what we paid for years when she had a SPS last year. Eurus onto Petrobras, as you can see, until the beginning of 2027, at the rate of $86,000 per day. Notus likewise onto Petrobras until 2026, at $75,000 per day. Just to give you an idea, if you take the Notus and the Eurus, and sort of readjust those contracts, legacy contracts to the current rates, you're talking sort of an uptick in earnings, EBITDA, about, you know, $25-$30 million.

You know, of course, they are not going to be readjusted at the current moment, but market to market, that's sort of to give an idea of the potential earnings uplift on those two contracts. So we decided on the Notus to shift, those of you that pay sort of a detailed attention to this, the SPS into 2025 from 2026. I mean, we're talking months here, sort of beginning of 2026 to the end of 2025. That's to optimize it versus Petrobras, and you do not want to have an SPS towards the end of the year in Brazil. That can result in the sort of a quite a lot of off hire unnecessary, so we have moved that forward, you know, just talking a couple of months.

The Concordia is on a contract to November, and there the client has two times, one times options. We are sort of fairly cautiously optimistic that those options will be declared. Time will tell. But she is due for SPS in March 2025, and the SPS and life extension for the Concordia is quite extensive. So what we have said there is that, unless we get sort of a good contract that can fund that SPS and life extension, we're gonna put her into lay up until such time. She is a Tier Two rig, so her earnings capacity is not the same as you have a Boreas or others. But, I mean, we are talking about I wouldn't sort of a...

I wouldn't rule out that we get work for her, but we will not, due to our, you know, we need to manage our cash very thoroughly. So we are not going to go ahead and spend that CapEx unless we have visibility on the earnings. Boreas, she is warm laid up in Norway, warm lay-up. I would say that it will take, give or take, four months for her to get ready, from when we push the button until she is ready to work. That has to do... We need to crew her up. We have to do some preparatory work. So I would say, to say four months, and she's also due for an SPS. And as we communicated before, we are a little bit more granular this time, so you have good visibility.

But we say that, you know, give or take, $15 million for SPS and reactivation work on the Boreas. She can work worldwide, including Norway. I mean, there are basically four rigs, in addition to a jackup, that can work in Norway, and Boreas is one of them. Caledonia, likewise, laid up, warm stacked, will also need to go through SPS, and reactivation will take about four months as well to get her out and ready to work. You should note that she is a moored unit, and she cannot work in Norway. She's actually most suitable to work in the U.K. So I think, priority-wise, we are very much prioritizing to get Safe Boreas back into action.

That's, that's important to us, and there are, as I said, a number of opportunities that we are working on. And Caledonia, there's also sort of a fairly tailored opportunity for her that she can work in, in 2025. For 2024, I think, you know, as the time has passed, we've been fairly sort of, vocal about that before, that we see limited opportunity. There are some sort of a scattered opportunity, but I wouldn't sort of put it into my model. I think that will be a positive surprise. But right now, we are working on a few things, but again, fairly low probabilities. But there is activity around not only in North Sea and Brazil, but we see that there's activity in Guyana.

We see that there's activity in the Gulf of Mexico, Africa, and other places. And then the two sort of Chinese units, nothing new there, basically. I think you can, as we have said before, look upon those more or less like an option for us to take delivery. They are already at the yard in China. Market, we've been through this before. This is the last print. Nothing much to add. I think the sort of the latest here was a contract with Equinor for Asgard that was awarded in January to a competitor, and that's sort of our take on what the rates was on that. Of course, this is our subjective view on that.

I think when it comes to Brazil, as I said, there, our assessment is that the market there is around $120,000-ish, and likewise, just below $200,000 in the North Sea. But there has been fairly limited activities in those two markets recently. This is, of course, this is the most interesting and most important market for us, Brazil. Nothing much has changed. We expect 11 units to work in Brazil in 2024, and we do expect that there will be another tender coming out from Petrobras later in the year, and this is an addition then to a potential extension of the Zephyrus. This is our assessment.

We know that Petrobras is doing this, you know, their own sort of review of their demand for flotels going forward, and of course, we are very close to Petrobras and discussing with them. So this is our assessment. This driving this is increased oil production in Brazil, which is going from the currently 3 million barrels per day, up to 5 million barrels per day. That's their target in 2030. Whether that they will hit that in 2030 or a couple of years later, time will tell. But that means, you know, the FPSOs operating in Brazil is going to go from the current sort of low 70s up to 90 units, and many of those are actually contracted.

So this is something that is going to happen, and we see it in other markets. Sort of the general activity level in Brazil is very, very interesting indeed. So if you look at our market, if you say that the total supply is 24 units worldwide, including some jackups and monohulls, so you see almost 50% of the total demand is then used in Brazil. So the market has changed in terms that, you know, the demand in the North Sea is not the same as it was five, 10 years ago, but then Brazil is very much out of the base load here, has picked up a lot of the capacity, and we think that's gonna continue.

Looking a little bit further ahead here when it comes to market, we think that in the North Sea, one potential sort of driver sort of in Norway is the electrification of the Norwegian field. That will most likely also mean a life extension of some of these, you know, fairly big production units. And when we talk to our clients, that's what they say. You know, the electrification of the Norwegian shelf is gonna happen. I mean, I know the politicians and other people are discussing whether we are going to electrify. When we talk to the clients, they are at, you know, they are actually making the decisions right now.

So we are sort of fairly confident that that will happen and that will also then lead to demand for flotels going forward. You're talking probably, you know, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030. Might be some work coming in 2026, but I think the major sort of demand here is gonna come from the latter part of this decade, and that could be quite substantial. That could be quite interesting. It's early days yet, but that's what we see. Others say even to look further ahead, I think that we talked about that before also. Namibia is a very interesting market for Prosafe.

That's a sort of market that's very similar to Brazil in terms of, you know, the corrosiveness. I mean, you're talking 3-5 times as high corrosiveness in Brazil as in North Sea, and we sort of expect very much the same sort of environment in Namibia. But again, you're talking first production. Shell is talking first production there, 2029, so then they're into the 2030s. But, I mean, my point here is that there is definitely a market for our units going forward. I think that the North Sea, the UK windfall tax, of course, what's happened there, they've extended that. That's not positive, but there are other markets that will pick up the demand there going forward.

This is something we have shown before, but it is important to sort of show you what our earnings capacity is. And this is the sort of, to the left here, the current market. This is if all the rigs with these assumptions are then reset at market to market based on what we assess to be the current market, we would have made today $125 million. We would love to have done that, but that sort of gives an impression about the earnings capacity. And then likewise, you know, if you go into the peak market and if you get the rigs back in work, you're talking over $200,000 per day, and then you can look at that compared to our market cap and sort of the debt level.

Again, looking at, I mean, our EV today, our net debt is $355 million. You add the market cap, you get just over $400 million of EV, and then you can compare that to broker values. You can compare that to other segments of the market. So, you know, compared to the new building parity, you know, most of the segments in the oil service industry is attractive price, but I would say that the flotel market, in particular, are attractive price. I usually say that, for simplicity, that, you know, the two most modern and most sophisticated rigs would cost $350 million per day.

That's what, $300 million-$350 million to build, and then we have an- the other two that's a little bit older and, and a little bit less sophisticated, they will cost about $250 million. So if you just look at the four modern units that we have in our fleet, you're talking about, you know, $1.2 billion in replacement value, and then you add on, let's say, you know, for sake of a good measure, $100 million for the three legacy assets, and then you are, you know, $1.3 billion-ish replacement value. So based on that data point, of course, we are very attractively priced. Yeah. Operations, not very much to add. I said it initially, I think that our operation, we have- we are the biggest operator in Brazil.

We have three units operating in Brazil. Our nearest competitor has two, so you know. And this is something that our sort of position in Brazil is something that is very valuable. And we also see that we have very close and good dialogue with Petrobras, and that's something that, you know, when issues pop up, we are the first one they reach out to, and that's a relationship that is highly valuable, also going forward in terms of looking at new business. And this could be a market where the two Chinese new buildings could be sort of added into when that timing is right. So the two units had 100% utilization there. Safe Eurus, I mentioned, there was some small issues, obviously, we had 95%.

Safe Concordia, even though she's an older lady, she's performing very well in the Gulf of Mexico. The Scandinavia is laid up in Norway, and Boreas and Caledonia, we talked about. Backlog, gone down, unfortunately, but that's just where we are, and that's something we are focusing and working a lot to build the backlog going forward. I said, you know, I think we covered it before, we are somewhat yeah, this is something we had expected to turn, but I think we need a little bit more time for this to materialize. Yeah, that's Reese, do you want to go through the numbers?

Reese McNeel
CFO, Prosafe

All right. Thank you very much, Terje. Take a brief look at the numbers in the quarter as well. First, on the revenue and the EBITDA, I would say that very much in line with our expectation. This last quarter, we have a very stable operation on the four rigs, as Terje mentioned. Good high uptime, and we were also very happy with the cost level that we were able to maintain in the quarter. So, revenue around $34 million, and EBITDA just over the $7 million mark. And I think if we look a little bit forward, as Terje showed on the previous slide, we see that we have pretty stable operations ahead of us for the next few quarters.

So we expect that this, this trend, the positive trend, particularly versus last year, when it comes to EBITDA, will continue, and we don't have any large SPSs or planned downtime in the coming couple of quarters. So we're very happy with the result that we were able to achieve in Q1. Looking on the income statement, of course, you know, EBITDA, we talked about that. I think the only other point to really point out on the full income statement is the interest. We have a very favorable interest rate on the current, you know, package we have. So we're talking about 8% interest. If you look at sort of competitors in the market who've done refinancing, we're talking about interest rate levels 10+. So that's obviously a benefit and the seller's credit.

Although we have in the P&L an implied interest, it's actually, until the middle of this year, it's actually interest, payable-free. So I think we have a fair, you know, favorable, financing cost, up until, of course, the refinancing, which Terje mentioned, is due at the end of, next year. Also, have a very efficient tax structure. I think, we have large tax losses in Norway that has enabled us, obviously, to maintain a very low level of actual tax, payable. And the tax that is payable is largely some local taxes that we have to pay in Brazil. Basically jump over, I think, the balance sheet. I think the main topic of interest, when it comes to the balance sheet is very much the cash position and liquidity looking ahead.

What we saw in this last quarter, and that was very much in line, as Terje mentioned, again, with our expectation, was that we had the SPS on Eurus in the back part of last year, in Q4 of last year, and we saw those payables unwind in this quarter. So we did the work in, you know, November, December, and then, of course, we had to pay the vendors a bit later. So that $7 million net working capital was largely impacted by that, by the net working capital unwind. And again, you have the interest and the, the debt repayment. The debt repayment is, again, the minimum amortization on the COSCO seller's credit for the Eurus.

I think, cash generation, you know, looking ahead, as Terje mentioned, we see getting into 2025, and we're monitoring very well, you know, very, very closely how that liquidity will look subject to contracts and backlog going forward. I'll hand it back to Terje, who will wrap things up, and then we'll move on to the Q&A.

Terje Askvig
CEO, Prosafe

Thank you. Yeah. So I think for Prosafe, it's very much sort of working on the market, the backlog, and that's very much our focus. We are optimistic on the market. We see that there are opportunities going forward in the different basins, and hopefully, we can come back to you with some news on that, if you know, going forward. We think that in particular, the Brazilian market is strong, and we have a good position in the North Sea. As far as the sort of the debt and the refinancing is concerned, that is, of course, something that we are managing.

We are proactively looking at it, also sort of working on it, but it will depend on how the backlog. So that's sort of how the sequence will play out here. So first the backlog, and then we'll sort of base on that, we'll start to have a clear view on how the final refinancing is gonna look. So I think I'll end the presentation with that, and very happy to answer questions if there are any.

Reese McNeel
CFO, Prosafe

There was one question here from coming in, from the web, which was, "With respect to the tenders in the North Sea, are those for high-end units only, or can walk-to-work solutions compete in the U.K.?

Terje Askvig
CEO, Prosafe

Yeah, sort of, answer: in Norway, you cannot have Walk-to-Work for unmanned installations, so that's sort of a specific requirement in Norway. In the UK, you can have Walk-to-Work, but our assessment is that the tender that is out, Walk-to-Work is less likely. It's not ruled out, but it is less likely. The requirement of that job is of such a nature that we think a Flotel is best suitable.

Reese McNeel
CFO, Prosafe

Okay, there's no more questions from online.

Terje Askvig
CEO, Prosafe

Okay. Any questions from the audience? Yeah, please. Maybe we can ask, we get a.

Speaker 3

Could you please comment on the SPS cost for Notus and Caledonia?

Terje Askvig
CEO, Prosafe

Sure. Reese, do you wanna-

Reese McNeel
CFO, Prosafe

Yeah. Yeah, so the SPS for Notus, this will be her 10-year SPS, that will need to be done, will be carried out in Brazil. What we have seen is that the 5-year SPS we did on Notus cost us $8 million. The SPS that we recently did on Eurus cost us $10 million, and that's not only the special survey, that also includes the fact that you need to clean the hull in Brazil, you need to come in to sheltered water, and also you need to do certain life extension repairs. And when you're getting on to 10 years working in Brazil, you also have some fabric maintenance and upgrade work that needs to be done.

So that figure that we have put in, which we estimate to be sort of in this range, $9 million-$11 million, is including, of course, all of those items, that work scope. It doesn't include thruster overhaul. That is something actually that you usually, you know, client- you usually do around about the 10-year mark, or you start to begin a rotational program around overhauling, maybe not all, but some, and that's something that we will also be looking into and plan to execute with respect to Zephyrus and Notus in the coming, I think, as we indicated, 24-36 months. Yeah. Caledonia was the next one. Caledonia, moored unit laid up in the UK. She's in moor...

She's in lay-up status, but she needs to do an SPS before she can work again, and she needs to be reactivated. And that total cost, we have estimated in a range of $11 million-$13 million, and sort of the midpoint being approximately $12 million. That includes, of course, the costs of, you know, crew ramp-up, crew familiarization, and, you know, operating cost elements, as well. Yeah. Okay.

Terje Askvig
CEO, Prosafe

Okay. If there are no further questions, I think we will end it there. Thank you very much for attending, both online and here in the audience.

Reese McNeel
CFO, Prosafe

Thank you.

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