Prosafe SE (OSL:PRS)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2024

Nov 14, 2024

Terje Askvig
CEO, Prosafe

Welcome to this third quarter 2024 results presentation for Prosafe. If there are any questions in the audience, please use a microphone, and online there is a chat function, and we'll read out the questions at the end. Last quarter was a rather eventful quarter for Prosafe. Luckily, there was not an eventful quarter when it came to safety. That was. We ran our vessels. We actually had over a year and a half now without any LTIs. Operation as such, I would say, is sound. We had utilization of the vessels that was 57%. Of course, the vessels that are on charter were more between 98%-100%. The operation for the company and the vessels is very strong. Also, then during the quarter, we converted the LOIs for Boreas and Caledonia into firm contracts. Very happy with that.

We're building up our backlog, and we also extended the Concordia so the Concordia will now be on contract until the 9th of March when she is due for an SPS. We also are very close to an extension on Safe Zephyrus. It's a two and a half year contract with extension with Petrobras. There are still a couple of things outstanding, but we expect that to be extended, and I would say sort of the economics, we're not going to say the rate, but overall the economics isn't improved compared to the current charter. We're going to sort of reveal the rate when that is actually firm, but it's both sort of a component on earnings, but also they are paying for more fuel, so all in all, there is an improvement in economics for the Zephyrus.

That means, including the Zephyrus, that the backlog is now $400 million at the end of the quarter if Zephyrus is done, and that's almost doubled in a year. That's always been our strategy is first and foremost to build the backlog, and I think we are where we should be now, or we can be rather. The numbers for the quarter, we came in at $34.6 million EBITDA of revenue and $5 million in EBITDA. We'll come back, Reese will go through that later. The liquidity end of the quarter was $63.5 million, down approximately $2 million from the previous quarter. That means that our strategy to improve the backlog, that's very much been the core of what we're looking for in order to strengthen our liquidity and do sort of the refinancing to have a sustainable capital structure.

So, what we are saying is that in total, we are looking to refinance approximately $400 million, including in that number is $343 million, which is the debt that is falling due the end of 2025. And then there is reactivation and CapEx that sort of makes up the balance. So, we have the refinancing is continuing, and our plan and our expectation is that that will be completed during the first half of 2025. And just to be clear, it is very likely that the refinancing will include an equity component, as we say. The number, the size of that remains to be seen. That depends on how the whole refinancing process and where we end up. But I think it is likely that it is going to be an equity component to the refinancing.

The market, I'll come back to it later, but in general, we see sort of a solid market, more activity, and so we are rather positive when it comes to the market going forward. This is the fleet. As you see, the Safe Zephyrus is expected, is a two and a half year contract, is actually a 954 days extension of the current contract. We hope to be able to announce sort of a firm contract within short. It is, we are dealing with a client, so it is sometimes difficult to sort of be very precise when they come back to us. Safe Eurus, as you know, is with Petrobras until 2027. Likewise, Safe Notos to 2026. Safe Notos will do an SPS towards the end of next year. I think most usually Petrobras will come out to the tender approximately a year before the contracts are due.

I think sort of a year ahead of the Notos expiry and also summer of 2025, I think we will sort of hopefully be in a position to discuss an extension, or not an extension, but a tender for Notos. The Safe Concordia, as I said, is on a contract now, firm contract until 9th of March next year. That means that she's actually been on contract over a year and a half on the current contract. That worked out sort of quite well for us. What we are planning to do there is to, unless you get a contract that makes sense and justify the CapEx SPS cost for Concordia, we will lay up until that is done.

Safe Boreas is fixed as of now on a firm contract in Australia, and she will leave Norway and be on a heavy lift out of Norway in April next year and then go to Singapore and thereafter relocate to Australia for the contract. Likewise, Safe Caledonia will commence the contract in June 2025. Safe Scandinavia and the Nova, Vega, there are no news. I'll come back to Safe Scandinavia later. When it comes to the market, we say that we define our market as our competitive market as 23 units. This is where in 2025, where they predominantly will be. If you take our six active units of the 23, that means that we have approximately a 25% market share worldwide and more or less the same in Brazil where we have three active vessels.

So here you can see sort of where the 23 units will be operating predominantly in 2025. In the North Sea, there will be five vessels. One vessel, the Safe Concordia, is in the U.S., and a total of 11 vessels are going to be in Brazil. That's up one vessel from this year. That sort of underpins the fact that there are more and more sort of vessels actually active in Brazil. They are utilizing approximately 50% of the total availability. That is an important market, but it's going to be an even more important market going forward. Also you can see that there are two vessels in Australia next year. That's also a very active market. This is sort of; we showed this last quarter as well, but I think this is important.

You see sort of a base on a bottom-up analysis that we have done that there is going to be increased demand, and this is comparing a little bit apples with pears because on the supply side is a number of vessels and the demand side is vessel years, so I think when you reach sort of the utilization here in the high 80s, you are basically fully utilized because you need to mobilize and remobilize vessels. You need to do the SPSs and so forth, so basically, if you look then into 2025, 2026, 2027, you are back to utilization that we saw in 2012, 2013, 2014, which of course the rates were much, much higher than what they are today. We see that in Brazil, they're going to increase the demand, as I said.

Also in the North Sea, we see that there is for 2025, I think that's sort of spoken for now. But in 2026, we see demand in the U.K., both of 2026 and 2027, demand that could fit Caledonia quite well. So we're actively working with clients to see if we can find work for Caledonia that she is very suitable for the U.K. And that's sort of a continuous process. But they're also sort of looking a bit further out. We see also in Norway, especially for 2028, that there are activity that could suit us quite well. And based on our contracts now, both the Boreas and the Zephyrus can be back in Norway for the 2028 season. And we think that is quite a good position to be in. A little bit more on Brazil.

Petrobras is out with a tender these days for a two-year contract. It's a pretty low spec unit. It's as expected. We also think that they will come out with a further demand for longer contracts, more four-year contract later in the year. Petrobras is delivering. One of the independents is actually looking for a vessel for a contract for late this year, next year. There is more activity. I mean, if you look at sort of the driver behind this is, of course, the increased production in oil production in Brazil. They're currently producing approximately three million barrels per day. Their plan in the early 30s is to increase that to between five and six million barrels. What we see, to take care of that increase, they have actually contracted 19 new FPSOs.

And in order to reach their goal, they need to contract a further 20. And what we see is that Petrobras, in particular, typically use an accommodation unit two, three years into the contract. And that's a recurring demand. Then it goes another two, three years, and we are back. I mean, the sheer sort of corrosiveness in Brazil means that they need to do a lot of maintenance on these FPSOs in particular. So I think a lot of the revenue here is both sort of longer term, up to four years, and it is recurring. So that's sort of the driver here we think is interesting. And we also see that some of the non-Petrobras clients, MODEC, others are starting to, the corrosiveness is not only happening on the sort of the FPSOs that belongs to the Petrobras. It also, their competitors experience exactly the same.

So we see that long term, now they have 11 units, three to five units more are going to be deployed in Brazil. So this is going to be the big driver for our market in the years to come. But we also then, you have contracts like Guyana, the same, that they're starting there. There's also, Namibia could be an interesting market that has a very similar sort of weather pattern and swells that we have seen in Brazil. This is really the message here is that it's going to take a long time until anybody builds a new accommodation unit. I mean, if you were to sort of contract the Boreas or Zephyrus today, we think that's going to cost you around $350 million apiece. And maybe Notos and the Eurus is slightly.

So basically what we see here is that if you add two times $350 million, that's $700 million and maybe $500 million for the sort of slightly less sophisticated units, you're up to $1.2 billion. And then you can add another sort of $100 million for the remaining units. So it's highly unlikely that there will be ordered any new accommodation units for a long time to come. So I think the supply side here is very much under control. And by all means, if there are new units coming to the market, I think that's great news for everybody. That means the rates have come up. And of course, we do control sort of of the 23 units. There are three new buildings still at the yard where we control two of them. So we are sort of in a good position here also going forward.

As I said, the vessels that are in operations are performing very well, so we had between 99%-100% utilization with Petrobras, and the safety performance is very good. Concordia, high utilization, and as also previously mentioned, we are going to see if unless we get a contract that justifies SPS, she will go into layup. The Safe Scandinavia, she has been in layup now for a number of years. It doesn't cost us that much. It's about $1 million per year, but then the question, how long should we do that, so we are now testing with our clients that she can work in Norway, so we are telling our clients, unless you sort of really have a demand for her, we need to find alternative use.

So we'll see what the alternative use is, but we are starting to explore that because we can't sort of spend that kind of money, even though it's limited. We're looking at it as an option premium, but we need to make a decision on the Safe Scandinavia. I would say during at least 2025, what we're doing with her. This is a development of backlog. So that's more or less doubled since the trough in Q1. So all in, including options and Zephyrus. The backlog is now up to $400 million. And I think that's sort of the visibility for Prosafe into 2025 and also to a certain degree into 2026 is very high. The movements here for 2026 is really the Zephyrus, now the Caledonia, the fact that she is fixed for 2025, we need to find work for 2026.

And also when we do the commencement on the Boreas in Australia, she has a wide commencement window. So yeah, Reese, over to you to do the numbers.

Reese McNeel
CFO, Prosafe

Thank you, Terje. Walk everyone here through the numbers today. On operating revenue, very much as Terje said, it's been very stable operations, 90%-100% utilization. So we've had quarter on quarter also very stable revenue. We do have a slightly increased cost this quarter if we compare it to other previous quarters. I think that's driven by two main elements. Those two main elements are one, we do see a slightly higher activity level. We are starting the reactivation process for Caledonia and for Boreas. And also we have two SPSs coming next year. So there is a small increase already in the amount of activity we need to support those reactivations.

But in addition, it's worth mentioning that in Q1 and Q2, we also had some positive one-off effects that impacted those numbers positively. But all in all, very stable operations and very stable both revenue and cost base in the past quarters. Looking briefly at the income statement, I think very limited changes outside of the EBITDA and the cash flow. Some slightly higher taxes. We have a very efficient tax structure, as we've talked about, with a large loss carry forward in Norway. But we still have some small local taxes depending on where we're operating. On the balance sheet, I'll touch a bit more on this in the coming slides. Of course, cash, the kind of liquidity, has been a very key focus area when we're looking at the balance sheet.

I think to cover that straight off, we still have. We've been communicating very consistently that we see headroom into Q2, Q3 next year. I think that's still very much the case. I think as we've shown on this slide, we have managed to keep the cash, to manage the cash well, I would say. We are receiving prepayments on Caledonia and we'll receive also prepayments on Boreas. So that is having a positive working capital effect, which is partly offsetting the underlying cash burn if we take into account also our interest and debt repayment profile. So an only slight decline in the cash in this past quarter. Again, we see a clear runway liquidity-wise into Q2, Q3 next year. Touching a little bit more on the refinancing need, Terje also already mentioned that approximately indicative in the $400 million range.

That includes the $343 million debt maturity that we have coming up at the end of next year. But in addition, we wanted to give people sort of indicatively how do we see the other components of that 400. As we've mentioned several times before, we have a bit of a wave of CapEx and reactivation spend ahead of us, approximately in the $80 million range. If we take that into account, in addition to the EBITDA and positive EBITDA contribution we expect next year, but also interest expense, debt repayments, taxes, we see an indicative outflow of approximately $80 million next year. Again, there are several pluses and minuses on this, but it's in that ballpark, we believe. And we think that the year-end cash balance, give or take a few million, but broadly in the $50 million range. And we have a covenant of $28 million.

Of course, some of this will be dependent on the refinancing solution we achieve, but we think ballpark $400 million is the number. And we are into the process today, and we hope to complete this in H1 of 2025. With that, I'll hand it back over to Terje to wrap it up and take questions at the end. Yeah.

Terje Askvig
CEO, Prosafe

Thank you, Reese. So this is basically the summary that I think we are in a good position in terms of where we are market-wise. We have approximately 25% market share, and we have a very strong position in Brazil. The earnings potential here, when especially the two legacy contracts in Brazil are coming up for renewal in 2026 and 2027, is significant. So we are now working towards sort of the refinancing and achieving sort of what we call a sustainable capital structure going forward.

I think I'll end it with that and take any questions. If you have questions in the audience, please use the microphone so the people online also can hear you.

Could you talk a bit about the opportunities you're seeing for the Scandinavia? And if you're not going to secure any accommodation work, would it be a sale for scrap, or do you see kind of conversion of an opportunity for alternative use?

Scandinavia is really a TSV, and she can be used for alternative use. I think as an accommodation vessel, she is moored, and she has in Norway, in particular, fairly limited capacity POB. So I think most likely that she will be used for some alternative works because she's a very good sort of steel is in good condition. She has a lot of good equipment on board.

Hopefully we'll find someone that can use her for alternative use. That's clearly our primary goal. I mean, but if that's not the case, I mean, then there is no need for her, and then we need to take the consequence of that. Hopefully we'll avoid the scrapping, but I think time will tell.

On the Concordia, is it mostly in the Gulf of Mexico you're seeing opportunities, or is there more opportunities in other markets as well?

I would say that Concordia is a tier two rig in a way that she's only DP2. I think that the market that she is more sort of Africa, US Gulf, that is, I think, unlikely. The North Sea is in the UK, unlikely. I think it could be some short-term work in Brazil, but also unlikely.

So I think it's more the tier two Africa, sort of the more sort of ad hoc markets that she's suitable. But there are contracts there as well. Yeah. Any questions from there? Was a question around if we see any additional opportunities from Petrobras given developments in the Búzios field in the recent contract, recent tender. Yeah. No, we touched upon it. I mean, we do see that there's one tender out now. We think there were the short-terms, more tiers, lower quality unit. We think there will be another sort of longer-term contract tender coming out later in the year. But we also have a constant dialogue with Petrobras, and they are also discussing even longer contracts. So I think the answer to that is very much sort of we see that there is, we said, three to five more units in Brazil over the coming years.

I think that sort of summarizes our view when it comes to the total demand in Brazil and Petrobras, of course, being an important part of that. Okay. If there are no other questions, then thank you very much for attending, and look forward to see you next quarter.

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