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Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Feb 9, 2021

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the SACHS Q4 presentation. My name is Sandri Ravir, the CEO of SACHS. And together with me here today, I also have Cecile Elda, our CFO. We will not have a live Q and A directly following the presentation today. So please follow-up with any questions you might have with our IR responsible Steineklon, either on mobile or email.

We will also have a Q and A session for the analysts following SACS later today. As usual, I will give you an operational update to start with, and then Cecilia We'll cover the financials before we end the presentation commenting on the outlook. 2020 has financially been significantly impacted by the pandemic and the related governmental imposed club closures, both through the direct effects of revenue loss during the closures and through the indirect effects mainly related to lower sales during closure affecting the member base. And Q4 was no exception. The member base coming out of Q4 was NOK 628,000.

The top line summed up to SEK 846,000,000 representing an 80% decrease compared to last year. Adjusted EBITDA Before IFRS 16 impact was negative by NOK 32,000,000 120 percent lower than last year. Cecilia will come back to the financials more in detail later in the presentation. We are operating in. And in Q4, there have been several changes, especially in Norway and as a result of the 2nd wave of the pandemic.

We have been very active in the dialogue with both national and local governments and politicians in order to give input to the restrictions and to accelerate our opening dates. We have been following the governmental restrictions and recommendations in the different markets and adapted our operations continuously. Our clubs in Sweden and Finland were only closed for 2 6 weeks, respectively, in 2020 during the spring, While our clubs in Norway and Denmark have been closed for several months throughout the year. Then let's look at the situation in the different countries as of today. In Norway, 71 of our clubs have been closed for a longer period of time during Q4.

The status changed last week as we open most of our clubs around Oslo in the so called ring 2 municipalities, Wednesday Thursday, and the clubs in Stavanger we opened on Friday. Then on Sunday, unfortunately, we were forced to close our clubs in Bergen. Hence, today, we have 33 SOTS Clubs opened and 45 closed in Norway. And we have 16 fresh fitness clubs open and 15 closed. We are operating the open clubs under strong restrictions that we will describe later on.

In Denmark, we operated the clubs until December 9 with strong restrictions. Then on December 9, the government imposed a new lockdown in the Danish society, and we closed all our clubs and the closure is still in force until the end of February. In Sweden, all clubs are open, But the Swedish government has strongly recommended everyone to stay home and avoid public spaces. And we have taken several measures to reduce visits in our Swedish clubs temporarily based on the recommendations from the government. The Swedish government also implemented a new pandemic law in January.

We had a good dialogue with Fokke Helzumindehten to and gave our input to the pandemic law restrictions for the fitness industry over the Christmas period. The new law has not resulted in any major changes to our operations as we had already implemented strong measures. Capacity in all retail spaces, including fitness clubs in Sweden, has been limited to accommodate for a minimum 10 square meter per person. We have supported this law as it ensures that all businesses will need to adhere to the same strict standards as we have been operating with throughout the fall. And we have recently had several inspections from the authorities in Sweden in many of our clubs with the positive feedback following all the inspections.

In Finland, the situation has been more stable throughout the quarter and the current restrictions have been prolonged to March 1. Our clubs have been operated according to these restrictions for several months, but we aim to be able to increase our capacity limits somewhat going forward, especially related to group training. So if you look at 2020 overall, Our financials have been severely negatively affected by all the governmental restrictions and club closures. When comparing 2020 to 2019, we see a negative revenue effect of around SEK 800,000,000 and an EBITDA effect of just above NOK 600,000,000. We started the year with a very positive growth in January February, So this development is fully related to the pandemic.

The governmental support packages in Norway and Denmark are very positive and highly appreciated. But as you can see, they're only covering a small share of the loss. In SOTS, we have a strong vision. We are making people healthier and happier, and this has been difficult during the pandemic. And facts are clear.

Public health has suffered significantly as a result of closed fitness clubs in the society. During a normal year, we have around 40,000,000 visits in our clubs and only a small share of these 40,000,000 hours of physical activity has been replaced by other form of training, either outdoor or at home. The training enthusiasts have managed to stay active also during the pandemic. But for most people, this has not been the case. They have been passive, and the majority of the population are much less active now and training much less now than before the pandemic.

And this will have serious long term effects on Physical and Mental Health. We have been active in our member communication, motivating our members to stay active using our digitals offering and training outdoor. And we are very impressed by the efforts our members have made. But now we really urge politicians to prioritize public health when the society is gradually opening up. And after reopening our clubs following the 1st lockdown.

We have proven that it's safe to visit the SOTS club also during the pandemic. Together with the industry in the various countries, we have implemented a wide range of industry wide actions to make Fitness Club a safe place to visit. And in SOTS, we have taken even additional measures. We have full access control and tracking of all visitors in our clubs. We ensure social distancing in our clubs.

We have strong cleaning routines in our clubs and many, many other measures being implemented. And all these measures are supported and being acknowledged by our members. And the numbers are very clear. In Norway, we had full infection tracking in the period we had opened clubs last fall. We have had more than 5,000,000 visits in our Norwegian Clubs since opening mid June 2020.

227 members tested positive in the days following their visit to SOTS. But none of these members had been infected in the Satskreb nor infected others. So there has been non confirmed transmission of COVID-nineteen between members in the SOTS club based on comprehensive infection tracking routines. So our message is clear and fact based. It is safe to visit a SOTS club even during the pandemic.

Segment. Hence, we are very pleased to see that we last week were able to open some of our closed clubs in Norway in a controlled way and with good dialogue with the authorities. And the openings, they went well. The combination of strong operational routines and a strong technology platform enable us to implement a series of measures to keep Club Safe. With Sacht's extensive club network, most members have a club close to their homes.

Before the pandemic, this was beneficial for the members who could truce between a wide range of clubs and the whole universe of group training classes and instructors. In the current situation with the pandemic, This is beneficial as a facilitator for keeping the social mobility low as most member have a SOTS club close to their home. And in several municipalities in Norway, we are now limiting the access only to members living in the same area as the club. Segment. Given the negative consequences on public health and our strong fact based track record of operating safe clubs.

We expect to open all clubs, both in Norway and Denmark soon. We have full access control, full data tracking, strong hygienic protocols and strict capacity measures. And we think it's a paradox that we still have to be closed, for example, in Oslo, while other businesses and shops are allowed to be open, operating with much lower restrictions and no visitor tracking. So again, We have a good dialogue with the governments we have had a good dialogue with the governments all the way and followed all recommendations and restrictions to contribute in the fight against COVID-nineteen. But now when we see that the society is opening up, Wiin Monopoula in Norway is busier than ever.

Restaurants and bars are being opened. We expect and urge politicians to prioritize public health and open fitness clubs. And when we open the clubs with COVID-nineteen measures in place, running them in a safe way, Members are coming back. They want to get active again. This was proven when opening our clubs after the 1st lockdown in the summer.

And we have seen it also in, for example, Bergen, where we opened our clubs before Christmas, before unfortunately closing them again on Sunday, that visits are coming quickly back to the levels of last year, even with capacity restrictions being enforced because visits are more equally distributed throughout the day. And in addition to activating the current member base quickly after reopening, We also expect new members to join and to quickly recover the member base. When looking at the member development throughout 2020. We had a strong growth in the beginning of the year before the lockdown. Then the member base developed negatively, mostly due to lacking sales, more than increased fall off during the 1st lockdown.

Then after being able to open all our clubs again into Q3. We saw a rapid member comeback. The member brace grew with 26 1,000 during Q3 2020 compared to 1,000 in growth during Q3 2019. Then we had the 2nd wave of club closures in Q4 with lagging sales bringing the member base down again. But we are confident that we will see a rapid recovery of the member base when we return to a more normal operation with open clubs and lower restrictions in the society.

We will get back on track. Then looking ahead, we are positive to the underlying growth momentum in the market and the strengthened position of SOTS. Segment. The pandemic has changed our societies, among other, by accelerating consumer trends that were also clear before the pandemic. And the strong trend around health and lifestyle has been clearly accelerated.

Fitness is in the center of the health and wellness ecosystem, and we Specter market growth to be very positive going forward. People will become more active and invest in their health. Another important trend that has been accelerated is digitalization and the use of technology in people's everyday life. This is also positive for SaaS as we have a strong digital platform in our business. Hence, we see strong growth opportunities for SaaS going forward.

And every crisis contains seeds of opportunities. And we have tried to spend our time well during the pandemic. And we would like to highlight 3 main areas that we have been working on, improving member activation, operational routines and cost control as well as increasing our physical and digital presence. Let's look into those 3. Firstly, on member activation.

We have been working systematically with member activation during the last few years and also spent some time in our quarterly presentations talking about it. There is a common misunderstanding that passive members are profitable for fitness clubs. This is a myth. Passive members cancel their memberships. It's just a question of time, and it doesn't take too long.

Usage and engagement are key metrics in both physical and digital subscription businesses. Hence, to increase the activity level in the member base is important both strategically and financially, but also a very positive contribution to public health. And we have now really stepped up our efforts in this area. And going forward, we will take many actions to further increase the engagement in our member base. And from the pilots we have done, We see clearly positive results, both in the onboarding of new members and in the activation of existing members, supported by our strengthened data and technology platform.

We have also standardized and improved our operating model across countries during the pandemic, ensuring best practice implementation of routines and scheduling in all clubs in all countries. And we have also reduced operating costs in selected areas to make sure that we are able to operate our clubs with the new COVID-nineteen measures in place without increasing the total operational costs, and Cecile will also come back to this point in her presentation. Segment. Overall, the Sats total product offering to our members are really unique. With our strong clusters, members have access to a wide range of clubs, more than 150 different concepts and classes.

In a normal week, we have more than 3,000 classes in our clubs in, for example, Oslo or in Stockholm. And we will further strengthen our clusters going forward. We see significant growth opportunities, And we have during 2020 accelerated our club expansion, both through greenfields and M and A. And during 2020, we added 17 new clubs to our clusters, 2 of them being relocations. And this expansion will continue now into 2021.

Going into the year, we have already signed 8 greenfields and 2 relocations and more will come. The pandemic is changing the fitness market, but also the retail market in general. And we see several interesting M and A opportunities and access to new attractive locations coming up. And we are in a strong competitive position compared to many other players in the industry. So as you can see from this map, we are strengthening our already strong trusters.

This will further improve our competitive advantage driven by scale in operations and member value through increased offering both to new but also to existing members. Because remember, when we open a new club in, for example, Oslo or Stockholm, We get many new members to that new club, but our existing members are also getting an improved offering as they can access all clubs in the cluster. In addition to expanding our core product, we are also exploring some implementing offerings such as Paddle. This will be a positive additional offering to our members and to new members. The demand for Paddle is growing, but still at an early stage.

And we are well positioned with our strong connections to landlords and with scale benefits in operations. So we have already concluded and signed plans for establishing around 25 paddle courts during 2021, and we expect to further grow this number. And even though 2020 has been challenging, we have experienced significant growth in one area, our digital product offering and usage. We have also commented on this in presentations throughout 2020. But during the year, we have launched several new digital products, engaging our members in periods where our clubs have been closed.

We are currently offering a digital universe consisting of digital group training and classes, digital concepts, digital training programs, PT online and Other Services. And in 2019, we established our own internal technology team, And we have scaled this team to 23 talented employees during 2020. And we are truly now seeing the effects of this great team in our digital offering. And this is resulting in increased digital engagement and usage among our members, with strong growth both in app and web usage. Online training got a really boost during the lockdown with an impressive 3.6000000 workouts during 2020 and a significant increase during the Q4.

These results gives us confidence that we have a solid foundation for further digital growth. And digital will be a central part of our growth strategy going forward. 80% of the Nordic population is not a member of a fitness club, and 80% of the population wants to work out more. And the main reason for not working out are lack of time or motivation. There is a need out there, and we want to fulfill it.

And we believe we have the knowledge to help people to overcome these obstacles. So our ambition is truly to be the leading platform for digital training in the Nordics. The fitness market growth is accelerated by the growth in digital fitness, especially during the pandemic, but we believe this will also continue after the pandemic. This will expand the market rather than cannibalize on the 20% already being members in the physical club. And we see that this enables SACHS to grow into geographies where we don't have a physical presence today.

With our strong member base and brand, with our knowledge around training and what really motivates people and our strong digital starting point. We believe that we are very well positioned to be Com, this Nordic leader in digital fitness. Hence, we have stepped up further our digital investments and will continue to do so. And we have big ambitions, and we are piloting some very exciting products in the market in the period to come, and we'll share some more results from these experiments later on. So to sum it up, We have seen negative financial impact from our from the governmental restrictions fighting the pandemic in Q4 going into 2021.

We expect politicians to prioritize public health when now opening up to society due to the increase in activity in the operation during the lockdown. We believe we have spent the time well during the pandemic, strengthening the operational routines and laying the foundation for future physical and digital growth. And lastly, we do expect to deliver another strong comeback when opening our clubs and lifting the restrictions driven by own initiatives and a very positive market momentum. I will now Leave it over to Cecilia for the financials.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Sandra, and good morning, everyone. As we've seen, SACS is highly affected by the governmental restrictions and the recommendations from the authorities as well as the member behavior in these uncertain times. And the Q4 financials are severely impacted not in the Swedish and Finnish governments. In Q3, we proved our ability to quickly recover both in terms of member development and profits. And as we presented previously, this is the clear benefit from our subscription based business model, where revenues literally can be turned back on when we are allowed to return to normal operations.

Across the group, we closed the quarter with 628,000 members in total, Which is 94% of the total number of members as of the end of Q4 2019. This is including members acquired from Bare Training, adding 6 clubs 9,000 members to our portfolio. And the typical pattern seasonally is normally flattish in Q4. But this year, the decline in the member base was higher than expected due to closed clubs in Norway and Denmark, but also due to increasing restrictions from all Nordic governments and local authorities, which has put a damper on both visits and new sales. And as we saw in the 1st round of club closures, the member decline of 6% is mainly caused by loss in new sales.

But with increasing restrictions and continued uncertainty in the society, churn was also somewhat higher than last year, especially in the 1st part of the quarter. During the quarter and in line with escalating contingent levels, We saw a continued increase in frees as tighter restrictions affected member behavior. That said, We are happy to see that members choose to put their memberships on hold rather than resigning, which shows that members have the intention to restart their training habits when the society starts to open up to more normal conditions. Average revenue per member continues to improve in the 4th quarter. And after adjusting for closure related freeze, campaign effects from previous quarters.

We see an increase also in the Q4. And just to repeat what they commented on last quarter. The tactical sales campaigns from the Q3 did not affect the contractual price, But as the discount from 3 months are deferred over the full binding period of 12 plus 2 months, the yield takes a short term hit And we will continue to be affected until Q3 this year. In the Q4, the reported negative yield effect of campaigns amounts to SEK 20,000,000 and will be around SEK 15,000,000 per quarter in the coming three quarters. The underlying membership yield in the quarter is, as I said, up 1.4% when you adjust for currency, temporary discount effect and freeze.

And as you can see on the right hand side, the average contractual membership price in the base is not significantly affected by the club closures and continues to show a strong positive underlying development following the ongoing yield management initiatives that we had from last year and an increase of 3.2% year on year. And as said, the 4th quarter financials are heavily affected by COVID-nineteen as the majority of the clubs in Norway and all clubs in Denmark have been partly closed throughout the quarter. Compared to the Q4 last year, revenues of SEK 846,000,000 are down by 18%. Revenues are also impacted by an increase in members on frees due to tighter restrictions and stronger communication, encouraging people to reduce mobility in the society. And this also impacts new member revenue and lack in additional revenues like personal training and retail revenues.

The loss in revenues is partly compensated by the governmental fixed compensation packages, which are offered in Norway and Denmark, which is recognized as other revenues, and this amounts to SEK 56,000,000 in the quarter. But still, COVID-nineteen revenue is Severely Impacted in All Markets. Adjusted EBITDA of minus €32,000,000 in the quarter is down 100 20% from last year as a result of the massive loss in revenues from club closures and higher number of members on freights. The EBITDA margin is consequently down to minus 4% in the quarter. And the result is Fairly similar per segment relative to size.

But despite the governmental compensation packages for fixed costs, the Norwegian segment again takes the hardest HIT in profit. And we have some cost reductions, mainly as a result of temporarily laying off employees in Norway, in the closed clubs and all club employees in Denmark. So operating under this new normal does result in Some additional cost driving measures, especially within cleaning and sanitation products. But we have, as Sondra talked about earlier, compensated for this cost increase by cost reduction in other areas. So to be clear, the decline we see now in profits in the 4th quarter is fully a result of loss in revenues.

As we communicated last quarter. We have continued to invest in our club portfolio throughout this period because maintaining our clubs is important to ensure sustainability and in future earnings. And full year maintenance CapEx ends in line with what we've communicated of keeping a stable level of around 5% of revenues. And further on, we will continue to invest. We are open to acquisition opportunities arising and already signed greenfields and planned acquisitions and relocations will be continued as planned.

Operating cash flow for the 4th quarter is negative at SEK 60,000,000. Working capital would normally be negative in the Q4, but is positively affected by deferral effects On prepaid membership fees, as we saw in the Q2 as well, because the freeze in memberships are reflected in revenues does not impact cash flow until the clubs are reopened and members get the membership days refunded by lower invoices. So in terms of liquidity, we remain strong health with a cash balance of SEK 4.50 SEK456,000,000 after Q4. And this provides a cash buffer in the event of prolonged local or national lockdowns or additional restrictions being reimposed, while at the same time facilitating the return to a growth strategy focused on developing and opening new clubs when the right opportunities arise. In addition, we did a precautionary drawdown on the rolling credit facility of SEK 200,000,000 in January to secure available liquidity and further strengthen our confidence in having sufficient liquidity and financial strength in the foreseeable future.

And finally, looking at the group's net debt and leverage position. As a result of the COVID closure, net debt is temporarily increased to SEK 1,500,000,000 last quarter, but has remained fairly stable throughout this year. Weakening of the LTM EBITDA due to The effects of the lockdown both in Q2 and in the Q4 results in temporarily elevated leverage ratios ending at 10x adjusted EBITDA in the 4th quarter. But as previously communicated, an amendment to the rolling credit facility was signed last year, waiving the original leverage based covenants until June 2021. And the financial covenants that are applicable in this ability to continue growing inorganically as proven through the acquisition of Barettrening Clubs.

But we do not expect to distribute any dividends to the shareholders during this amendment period. And operating under normal conditions, We have historically shown a strong deleveraging profile, both through cash generation and growth in EBITDA. And in the immediate term, we have the mentioned deferral effects to clear over the coming months as well as continued restrictions in this first half of the quarter. So you should expect net debt to increase slightly over the coming quarters. But we are extremely confident that once we are through the COVID closure impact, We will return to the same approach to responsible deleveraging again in the future as we have shown in the past.

So I'll leave the word over to you again, Sondre, for outlook.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Cecilia. So I will run off with a summary of how we see the outlook for SOTS and the industry. Short term governmental club closures and restrictions will continue to have negative financial impact. But this is temporary, as Cecilia illustrated. We expect to recover quickly, both getting members back to our clubs and strong sales of new memberships when clubs are open and restrictions gradually lifted.

We expect to further grow both our physical and digital presence during 2021, fueled also by a very positive market trend around living a healthy lifestyle. After the pandemic, A new Dognad is starting, and that Dognad is to get the population active again. And we are here to contribute. We will make people healthier and happier again. Thank you.

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