Scatec ASA (OSL:SCATC)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2019

Jan 24, 2020

Raymond Carlsen
CEO, Scatec Solar

Happy to see you all here at our new offices at Skøyen in Oslo. In case you have time after the presentation, you're free to join us up and take a look at our offices. If you take a look at some of the highlights that I'd like to share with you, just looking at last quarter. We reached 298 GWh in the quarter, and 926 GWh up almost three times compared to the year before, for 2019 as a whole. Of course, the growth in the gigawatt hours was 1.571 million. Also, a very good increase from the year before. We completed our last plant in Egypt out of six in the quarter as well, bringing us up to 390 MW in operation. As some of you might be aware, this is the largest bifacial plant in the world.

Every morning, I take a look at the production from all our plants and in particular Egypt. I can see that the bump directly from the sun, or the ray directly from the sun. The board of Scatec Solar is proposing a dividend of NOK 1.05 for the year. If you look to the right there, you can see that it has been a tremendous growth. Plants have been added throughout the year. You can see that the power production gigawatt hours, comparing it to the last quarter 2018 and last quarter 2019, is up almost or a little bit less than three times. Points to mention for last year, we doubled the installed capacity, and we have also expanded the pipeline, both in terms of megawatts but also in terms of geographical reach.

609 MW were connected Egypt, Malaysia, Ukraine, and Mozambique, in total, 1.2 GW in operation. I guess the best word, if I may call it, ESG, on a couple of slides later. This is our portfolio in operation. The whole portfolio is performing very well. The deviation from year to year, if you look at statistics, it should be ± 4%. Compared to wind, that's pretty stable too, but solar is much, much more stable in terms of production. We see that, we have seen that in our numbers, and we expect that also to happen in the future. Plants under construction, looking at the plants there, really nice. Three plants next to each other, also coming to weather, fantastic solar conditions. Almost 2,500 solar hours every year. It's amazing compared to Norway, for example, we are less than 1,000.

I think yesterday, Pål Helsing, head of Solutions in our company, mounted the last panel. We're pretty close to testing period there as well. Our final small plant. It provides an insight into the diverse portfolio that Scatec Solar have. We're now enjoying revenue streams from 10 different countries, more plants in several countries. You can see the split with regards to currency, most dominated by Euro and U.S dollars, but also some important contributions are Malaysian Ringgit and Brazilian Real from Brazil. I don't remember exactly, but I know for sure when I connected stone on stone contribute to the increase in the long cash flows. That will, as we go forward, be more and more dominant compared to the very big fluctuations that we have seen in the numbers when the revenues from the constructions activities were substantial.

A solar plant doesn't just stop producing electricity after 20 years, after the contractual period. It has a lifespan of depreciation, the tail and production. The production happens on the way down. It will then enjoy either the market conditions or enter into new power purchase agreements with the market as they present themselves. I mentioned ESG. I think for some, it's not easy to really understand. This is not a committee that is sort of sitting next to the money. You will see parts of these elements, all the important aspects of ESG embedded into the way that we operate. What happens on a continuous basis is that we focus on risk. Everything we do is risk. When you focus on the risk and you're able to mitigate it, then you're taking a lot of the uncertainty out of the equation.

This is what the management, the company's focused on, and also what the board is focused on. That goes on the top line looking into it, who has developed the project? Are there any environmental issues that we need to take into? Are there any birds nesting in the area? I remember in California where the plant there, an owl pair that sort of enjoy themselves, and we had to watch them for 12 months before we decide that it's okay, we can build a plant. Like pair of wolves up in Utah. There are things like to. When you identify issues, it could be that it's a small village, it's next to the plant, or it could be where the plant is going to be. We may have to move these people. We have to find them a new home.

We may have to find them a new area to grow the rice paddies or whatever they're growing. That takes time. If you know the IFC rules, then you know if you apply that to your business, you have to take or build a plant. Then, of course, we very early involve stakeholders. They have exactly the same interest as we have to have the right answers to these questions. This is co-shareholders, it could be the banks, it could be other partners. Throughout everything we do, we focus on health, safety, and environment. Also in our previous life, that was important when I worked in the oil and gas business, and it should be important for every business. All the products that we deliver, that is good. Our performance last year, we had an LTIR 1. One in a million hours, which is extremely low.

I don't think many companies in Norway is at that level. Our sick leave last year was at 0.2%, 0.3%, which is, I don't think many companies in Norway has that or elsewhere. I think the statistics shows that we are on the right track. It's not easy to keep it at that level. I also like to point out something extremely important here. Go into the documentation to have a proper decision is presented to the Board, and they make a decision to go ahead. An important point for us. Of course, you can see things move on. We continue our focus on ESG aspects, and then it moves on. I can tell you to build a business, a sustainable business, South Africa, we're doing a lot of that. It's more than just the bottom line. That's what I'm trying to tell you.

This is the way I think businesses are going to be managed in the future. They have to be. I can talk a lot more about these things, but maybe at a later stage. Now, there are several institutions that have specialized in actually judging, analyzing, and human capital, business ethics, and so forth. They decided that going through all these factors, that we are low risk in terms of experiencing material financial impact from ESG factors. This is serious for some companies if they're not scoring properly. If the risk is high, it's worth actually studying that in detail to try and mitigate it. Now, if you compare that to our peers, where actually the global universe, they looked at 12,237 companies. 450 util-

Mikkel Tørud
CFO, Scatec Solar

Thanks. Let me start by just reflecting a bit on our historical development on the financials, and I think this is a quite nice graph that we put together here. We IPO'd in 2014, and to the left of this graph, you can see. Sorry. I need to get my mic. Hold on. Better now? Yeah, sorry. I'm saying that this is a graph showing the historic development of the company since the IPO over the last six. On the right, you can see the development of revenues and EBITDA on a proportionate basis. Again, we've seen a four-fold increase of EBITDA over this time period and reported now close to NOK 1.6 billion of EBITDA last year. Moving into our segments, starting with the power production segment.

Raymond already talked about the increased power production, and we report now NOK 379 million of revenues and an EBITDA of which close to NOK 1 billion. Of course, we will, as we expect, increased power production and the revenues here as we connect the new plants that we're completing these days. On the O&M side, we also see growth, of course, at a more moderate level, and the absolute numbers here are smaller than in power production. EBITDA of NOK 11 million in the quarter and revenues of NOK 34 million. Performance and availability further and also to learn and build this into our new power plants. When we look at then O&M for the whole year, revenues reached NOK 115 million and EBITDA NOK 45 million, up about 30% year-on-year. In Development and Construction, activities continued to stay high.

We reached revenues of NOK 1.2 billion and EBITDA was 78% at the end of last year. We continue to develop a wide range of projects. We've added 360 MW to the backlog, while we also reclassified 158 MW from backlog to pipeline in the quarter related to the projects we have, some of the projects in Vietnam and a smaller one in Honduras. Also worth mentioning that we capitalize development expenses. We impaired NOK 10 million now in Q4, and that's compared to NOK 20 million or so in 2018. If you look at this segment as a whole for 2019, you can see revenues close to NOK 5 billion and EBITDA NOK 589 million. Moving on to our financial position. We've invested a lot in at least 60%.

If you look at the consolidated cash in the group, it was NOK 2.8 billion, of which NOK 758 million was free cash at the group level. When we look at the proportionate net debt, it ended at NOK 7.3 billion, up from NOK 6.1 billion in Q3 as we drew down more debt at the project level. Again, group book equity. We received NOK 66 million of distributions from the operating power plants, and we invested NOK 187 million of equity in the quarter, mainly in Argentina, Ukraine, and South Africa. You can see a fairly large reversal of working capital related to our construction projects in this quarter. We will continue to see some capital, and then that's reversed towards the end of the projects. This will continue to fluctuate as we move into construction of new projects as well.

Obviously, we'll expect to see growing distributions from the existing power plants as we connect new plants now also this year. Included a summary of the same picture. Looking at this as 2019 as a whole. You can also see the capital increase that we did, as well as the working capital movement. We had a similar positive movement on the working capital side in 2018. Lastly, a bit on the guidance. The remaining contract value for the construction portfolio is about NOK 700 million, remains to be recognized as revenue from the volumes on the plants currently in production. In 2020, the revenues and margins from asset management services and O&M services will be reported together in a new Services segment.

We see that the asset management part of our business have grown quite significantly, and we believe it makes sense for us to report this together with O&M. It has, until now, been part of the power production revenues and margins. We will provide you with restated figures for these segments prior to Q1 reporting, as well as provide you then with some guidance for the year. You get a better handle of that slightly changed segment definition. Okay. Raymond?

Raymond Carlsen
CEO, Scatec Solar

Thank you, Mikkel. We have grown the backlog and pipeline by a couple of hundred megawatts since we last reported to you all. It's a substantial pipeline. Within the pipeline, there are also some very big projects. Almost extremely hot at the moment. We see in the developing world, or the emerging markets, the emerging world, that governments look to renewables as the quickest source of getting access to electricity. This is good news. Normally, when they were looking for additional plans to have more electricity into the grid, it took up to five, six, seven, 10 years. That situation is changing to the better, which is, I think. Vietnam is a country that is actually enjoying one of the highest growth in their GDP in the world. They are between 7% and 8%.

You all know that to be able to support such a growth, the access to electricity, an increase in electricity, will have to increase even further. You're talking about 7%, 10%, up to 15%. They're close to 100 million people. Some people call it the new small China, meaning that. Now, we have seen this before. When things move a bit fast, and they actually installed 4,000 MW in two years of renewable in Vietnam. They are overtaken by the sheer size and the impact of these renewables. That made them last year halt a bit. Stop. What's going on? Do we need to relook at the policies? Can the grid handle all this new electricity that is not as a sort of a gas power plant or a hydro power plant? It has a bit more issue with auctions. We don't really know the answer.

For us, Vietnam remains on top of our list. We are increasing the number of people in our offices in Ho Chi Minh City. We are developing, continue to developing one of the largest floating solar plants in the world. In fact, if it becomes the size that we believe, more than 1,000 MW, then it will be the largest floating facility in the world. Of course, those projects aren't really good candidates for auctions. I mean, they are special. To remind you Vietnam wasn't the only country in the world that stopped for a bit to figure out how they're going to best put their new policies into action. South Africa did the same. They actually did it twice. Egypt stopped also, said, "What's going on? The price is coming down.

What do we need to do?" They looked around, gathered information, and they actually contacted company like ours to access the type of experience that we have collected from many different markets. They took that along with other information and adjusted their policies. Then they went ahead. Egypt became of the PV plants in South Africa. There has been some assumptions saying that the performance of Eskom has a direct impact on the ability to pay the bills for plants in operation. That is wrong. It's a pass-through. The government guarantees for the payments that goes to companies like us and other IPPs. Now, what's happening in South Africa? Well, the growth isn't very high. They need growth. They need employment, new jobs. For that, electricity is extremely important.

This has become so severe in South Africa that President Ramaphosa decided that we need to accelerate the deployment of new megawatts into the system. They publicized three to four weeks ago that they would like to have 3,000 - 4,000 MW on 100% basis added to the capacity in the country as soon as possible, meaning from 6- 18 months from now. Renewables will be a part of that solution. They also, in parallel, which they've been working on for a long time, they've been working on round five. This is serious production that we do in Southern Spain, and we can ship it out in a matter of weeks. This is what we're going to propose when we reply to request from the government by end of this month. In addition to that, we have almost 1,000 MW of sites ready to construct.

That will also be something that we will offer to the authorities as a rapid deployment and installation of new megawatts. If you ask me, South Africa is our home market, it's extremely interesting for us, and we are ready to actually help the government. Something that is very well-received both by co-investors, by banks, and the buyers of electricity. The long-term cash flows will dominate our numbers in the future, and for many years to come. 1.9 will be connected during the year, and additional plants will be added to that as we go on. ESG, I talked enough about that. You understand how it fits into our operating model. Market everywhere is moving very rapidly. It's in fact, that means that there has to be some very big projects, and there are in our pipeline.

From there on, 1.5 or 1,500 MW will be added as we move into the future beyond 2021. Thank you very much, and both Mikkel and I are open for questions.

Mikkel Tørud
CFO, Scatec Solar

Yes?

Speaker 4

Here's a difficult question.

Raymond Carlsen
CEO, Scatec Solar

Yes.

Speaker 4

It's a matter of organizational culture in your firm, of course, and this is difficult. The other question is dividend policy, which is less important. I wonder, why do you pay dividends when your growth is so high and you go to the market to issue new shares? Why do you do this at the same time? I guess it's more a question, what is your dividend policy in general? How do you think about your dividends?

Raymond Carlsen
CEO, Scatec Solar

You want to answer the last one first?

Mikkel Tørud
CFO, Scatec Solar

I can answer the last one first. We defined the dividend policy when we went public in 2014. The idea there, obviously, the growth component of the value creation is dominating the yield, obviously, at the moment. The policy is that we pay 50% of what we receive of distributions from operating power plants. That's the policy. It's a fairly moderate amount. At the moment, of course, this will grow as we connect new plants, and there's also a bit of a lag here.

Raymond Carlsen
CEO, Scatec Solar

Investors say that you are in difficult countries, sort of perceived difficult countries, and it's very good to see that you're actually bringing the dividends home. Right? This is proof because if you want the dividend, you're going to watch out. What about that country? Did you get the dividends back? No, sorry, it's stuck there. Well, you can find out from the numbers and our dividend policy. That was a part of the thinking. Now to corruption. I remember many years ago, I was in a different company, and we were almost acquired, and I said, "You are in Angola and you are in Nigeria," where we have been How should I put it? We have been exposed to situations, but very seldomly. We train 100% of our people, 100%, both with regards to reporting, how to tackle situations if that arises.

This goes along with all our partners as well. They have the same interest. We will not get our projects financed if there's anything wrong. We also carry out due diligence on we cannot accept. I'm telling you, we have said no to projects, not many, because very few projects have that in them when they come to us, where we have said, "No, we're not going ahead because the situation isn't good." We don't really experience people that are approaching us to say, "Okay, I can help you if you help me a bit." That doesn't happen, which I think is very good. They know that talking to Scatec Solar, they will not get it any other ways but.

Speaker 5

Thank you. A question on D&C. Will the activity level in 2020 be higher or lower than in 2019 in D&C?

Raymond Carlsen
CEO, Scatec Solar

Activity level on D&C, as you have seen in the past, varies. In 2018, and particularly in 2019, we had an extremely high level. We don't think the level is going to be at the same this year as it was last year. Again, the year after, it may be beat the record from last year.

Mikkel Tørud
CFO, Scatec Solar

In the revenue recognition. That's also important. We are doing a lot. There's a very high activity on developing new projects and, of course, that will then be, in the end, reflected also in the revenues. Just to be clear on that.

Raymond Carlsen
CEO, Scatec Solar

Yeah, for example, we have a large group of the people in the construction segment now involved in designing this floating facility and elsewhere. The floating facility I'll be looking at in Vietnam doesn't show up, as you say, in the revenues, but hopefully it will.

Speaker 5

You told me now that your gross margin at the moment is about 15%. This is what it boils down to in the future. How could you protect them? You told us in September how you try to work with your project in a way that you provide more than just your panels. You do what Raymond just said. If you think five years ahead, 400 competitors around you, would there be a margin of 15% five years from now?

Raymond Carlsen
CEO, Scatec Solar

I remember in 2014, margins. It's so easy to deliver projects without focusing on the margins. We focus on cost all the time. We are the largest procurer of panels among many of our peers. We buy 1,000 MW of panels. Can you imagine how many hundred thousands of panels that is? We have a negotiating power that is actually helping us to protect the margin. We are trying to work, which is nothing that stops. You never finish. How to optimize your operating model, make people more efficient, have partners that know what it will add to what we're doing now, batteries being one. Grid connection being another one. Providing energy to stabilize the grid is a fourth one. There are many different things. Nothing is stagnant. It moves on.

This industry, I've said this many times before, three, four years ago, I would have never guessed where we are today. Let's talk in four to five years and we'll compare the thinking behind the question to where we are. I think there are numerous opportunities. For example, release.

Operator

Question from Michael Prechevre. Could you please comment on the progress in Bangladesh?

Raymond Carlsen
CEO, Scatec Solar

I can comment on the progress on many projects. We don't really do that in detail. Since it's been mentioned, Bangladesh is moving ahead. There we have had the situation, the one that I was touching on under ESG, where there were a group of families living in an area that we wanted. We're not designing for floating in Bangladesh, it should be on dry land. That has an issue, and of course, then that determines the speed of how we can implement and start construction. Financing together with some of the development banks, that's all in preparation. Construction, design, everything is being worked on at the moment. You want to add anything on?

Mikkel Tørud
CFO, Scatec Solar

No, I think, we mandated the lenders to this project and.

Raymond Carlsen
CEO, Scatec Solar

Yeah. We have insurance coverage. Maybe you're a better candidate to answer this, Mikkel. We have insurance coverage during construction, during operation that covers, I guess, most of the things that can go wrong. In terms of floating, you have to tailor the insurance to whatever challenges or whatever you think is of uncertainty and see if you can get insurance for it. Normally, you can get insurance for everything. You want to add anything to that? Yeah.

Operator

One last from the web. How is the competition now in the market compared to earlier?

Raymond Carlsen
CEO, Scatec Solar

How is the competition in the market now compared to earlier? I don't think it has changed all that much. We see that some of the oil companies, I saw an article in Financial Times this morning, a large oil company in Portugal is spending EUR 2.2 billion to buy into the solar business. I think that's good news. Is increasing, the cost of the panels is coming down. Electricity will continue to become cheaper as we move into the future. On top of that, you will see the batteries. That's all good news. We're not now competing with the traditional providers of electricity, diesel and gas turbines. Renewable beats all of them.

Mikkel Tørud
CFO, Scatec Solar

Okay. I think we're through. Thanks again for coming to Skøyen today. Hope to see you again here next.