Subsea 7 S.A. (OSL:SUBC)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Jul 28, 2022

Operator

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Subsea 7 S.A. Q2 2020 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Katherine Tonks. Please go ahead.

Katherine Tonks
Head of Investor Relations, Subsea7

Welcome everyone. With me on the call today are John Evans, our CEO, and Mark Foley, our CFO. The results press release is available to download on our website, along with the presentation slides we'll be referring to during today's call. May I remind you that this call includes forward-looking statements that reflect our current views and are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Similar wording is also found in our press release. I'll now turn the call over to John.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea7

Katherine, thank you and good morning, everyone. I will start with a summary of the second quarter of 2022 before passing over to Mark to cover the financial results. Turning to slide 3. In the second quarter, Subsea 7 delivered a strong performance Subsea and Conventional, while Renewables was in line with expectations we communicated in June. Both our core markets improved during the quarter. In Subsea, the industry supply chain challenges stabilized and tenders progressed, resulting in an order intake of $2 billion and a book-to-bill of 2.1. In offshore wind, pricing and risk allocation have improved for recent tenders, and we are preferred suppliers for projects worth over $1 billion. Turning to slide 4. In the second quarter, we continued our sustainability strategy with a successful trial of biofuels on the Seven Oceanic.

We are happy with the performance of the biofuels and are working with suppliers to evaluate how such fuels can be deployed at scale on a global basis. Turning to slide 5 and an update on our largest contracts. In Turkey, the fast track Sakarya project has reached 50% progress. Most of the procurement is complete and deliveries to Turkey are on track. Shallow water pipelay commenced in the quarter. In Brazil, we continue to manage fabrication for the Bacalhau project and we are preparing for offshore operations starting later this year. At Mero-3, procurement has commenced. Additionally, our vessels were busy in the Gulf of Mexico on projects including Anchor, Jack/St. Malo, Mad Dog 2, and Vito. In Renewables, we have installed 30 foundations and 21 cables for the Seagreen project by the end of June.

Of the 114 jackets, 94 have been delivered to U.K. and the remaining 20 are currently signed off and ready for load out from China. We remain on track to complete the work later this year. We also made progress installing cables at our second floating wind project, Hywind Tampen. Turning to slide 6, I'll give you an update on the renewables contracts that we discussed in our trading update in June. Both Formosa 2 and Hollandse Kust Zuid have made good progress against our revised schedule. To date, 90% of the installation scope of Formosa 2 and 67% of Hollandse Kust Zuid is complete and they are on track for handover to our clients in August and September as planned. As we announced in June, Seaway Strashnov will be completing the summer campaign of Dogger Bank A and B in 2023, replacing the Alfa Lift.

The increased installation time and extra cost associated with using the Seaway Strashnov were reflected in June's guidance. Next, turning to slide 7. Last quarter, we outlined our strategies for managing supply chain challenges related to raw material inflation. In the past few months, pricing has stabilized, albeit at a higher level and a normal tendering process has resumed. Our strategy, dating back well before 2022, has been to protect our margins through back-to-back contracts, index linked pricing and escalation mechanisms. Wage inflation is also something that we are monitoring closely and have factored into our bids. Throughout this period, our strong collaboration and early engagement with both clients and the supply chain have enabled us to navigate these challenges and continue to successfully tender, win and execute projects. Turning to slide 8 and the Subsea Integration Alliance.

During Q2, we were very pleased to extend our relationship with Schlumberger for another 7 years. As you know, the alliance has been the cornerstone of our strategy to offer integrated projects in Subsea, and thanks to a strong commitment from both sides, it has proven a success. With major awards in Australia, Brazil, Senegal and Turkey, as well as tie-backs in Norway and the Gulf of Mexico, our integrated backlog stands at around $2 billion today. We get very positive feedback from clients on this model of contracting, and this is reflected in our SURF tender pipeline, of which 50% relates to integrated projects. The alliance has delivered an impressive performance through one of the industry's most challenging periods, and we look forward to reinforcing this success as the market improves. Now I'll pass you over to Mark to run through the financial results.

Mark Foley
CFO, Subsea7

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I will begin the financial results review with some details of group performance in second quarter before turning to the business units. Slide 9 summarizes the strong backlog position at the end of second quarter. Order intake was $2.1 billion, equating to a book-to-bill of 1.6 times, and backlog at the end of the quarter was $7.8 billion, the highest level since 2014. Order intake included new awards of $1.7 billion, including the Búzios 8 project in Brazil, the CLOV 3 project in Angola, and the Topper and Ballymore projects in the Gulf of Mexico. These four new awards are attributable to the Subsea and Conventional business unit.

In Renewables, it was announced that Seaway 7 was the preferred supplier of the East Anglia 3 and the Seagreen 1A projects. These two projects have a combined value of over $1 billion, but will not be recognized in backlog until final contractual terms have been agreed and final investment decisions have been secured. Escalations of approximately $400 million, comprising variation orders and contractual price escalations across several projects, were largely offset by changes in foreign exchange rates, mostly due to the weakening of the Norwegian krone and the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar. This had an adverse impact of approximately $300 million on backlog. $2.5 billion in backlog is expected to be executed over the remainder of the year and $3 billion in 2023.

Turning to slide 10 and the headline results for the group. Revenue was $1.2 billion, broadly flat year-on-year, as we continued to execute our large EPCI projects in both Subsea and Conventional and Renewables. Adjusted EBITDA of $134 million was up 48% compared with the prior year period, and the margin increased to 10.7% from 7.5%. I'll discuss the drivers of this change at the business unit level on the next few slides. Slide 11 presents the key metrics for Subsea and Conventional. Order intake was $2 billion, equating to book-to-bill of 2.1x, resulting in a strong backlog of $7 billion. Revenue was $1 billion, up 11%, reflecting good progress on the fast-track Sakarya project, as well as our other large EPCI projects.

Adjusted EBITDA was $171 million, with a margin of 17.7%, up from the 10.5% in the second quarter 2021. This higher profitability reflects strong operational performance and benefited from projects completing in the Gulf of Mexico and Saudi Arabia during the quarter. Selected Renewables performance metrics are shown in slide 12. Order intake in Renewables was light at $49 million, taking the backlog to $800 million. As John and I have mentioned, during the quarter, we were awarded preferred supplier status on several projects, and these should build the backlog over the next six months. Revenue from Renewables was $260 million, down 17%, mainly reflecting the fading of activity on the Seagreen project.

The Seagreen, Hornsea 2, and Changfang and Xidao projects made notable revenue contributions in the quarter. The adjusted EBITDA loss was $49 million, reflecting charges of $28 million and $34 million in relation to the Hornsea 2 and Formosa 2 projects respectively. Excluding these two charges, the adjusted EBITDA margin was 5%. Slide 13 shows the cash flow waterfall for the second quarter. Net cash generated from operating activities was $94 million, including a $63 million build in working capital. Cash conversion, measuring the conversion of adjusted EBITDA to adjusted operating cash, was 88%. Net cash used in investing activities was $50 million, mainly attributable to purchases of property, plant, and equipment associated with vessel dry docks and upgrades. Free cash flow in the period was $42 million.

Net cash used in financing activities was $72 million. This included $32 million of dividends paid in May, $27 million of lease payments, mainly related to charter vessels, and $4 million relating to the share repurchase program. At the end of the quarter, cash and cash equivalents was $464 million, and net debt was $88 million, which included lease liabilities of $184 million. The group's liquidity was $1.5 billion, which included $1 billion of committed undrawn borrowing facilities. In June, the group entered into a $700 million multicurrency revolving credit and guarantee facility with a five-year tenure. The facility is available in a combination of guarantees up to a limit of $200 million in cash drawings or in full for cash drawings.

At the same time, the group's previous $656 million multicurrency revolving credit and guarantee facility was canceled. Lastly, in March, as part of our commitment to shareholder returns, we announced a share repurchase program of approximately $70 million. As of market closing yesterday, $45 million or 64% of the $70 million has been utilized to repurchase 5.6 million shares at an average price NOK 75.4 per share. Subsea 7 holds 10 million shares, or 3.3% of its issued share capital as treasury shares. To conclude the financial review, slide 14 shows our expectations for the full year. As we announced in June, revenue and adjusted EBITDA are expected to be broadly in line with 2021, where net operating income is expected to be lower than 2021.

We have updated our guidance regarding taxation to be between $50 million and $60 million, adjusted upwards from between $45 million and $45 million. The revision is driven by an increased level of activity and higher tax jurisdictions. There have been no other changes to the financial guidance since the first quarter of 2022 presentation. I will now pass you back to Joe.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea7

Thank you, Mark. On slide 15, we have a reminder of our capital allocation framework that you're probably familiar with by now. In the second quarter, we returned $32 million to our shareholders via a cash dividend, and we continue to progress through our $70 million allocated to share repurchases, which is over 60% complete today. A key part of the framework relates to the funding strategy for Renewables. Subsea 7 is making good progress in this respect, and they expect to announce details of their financial structure in the third quarter. Now we move on to our usual outlook slides, starting with the prospects in the subsea market on slide 16. Tendering remains very busy and we are confident in the outlook for new orders for the group. Three regions, Norway, Gulf of Mexico and Brazil, continue to be the most active markets.

There are early signs of improving activities in other regions, with tenders added to this map in the U.K. and Morocco. After the quarter end, we announced our first award in Guyana for ExxonMobil's Gas to Energy project, and we see further prospects in this region. Availability of our rigid wheeled vessels is tight in 2024 and tightening in 2025 and beyond, which is driving improved pricing for our EPCI services. Overall, we are encouraged by the way the recovery is progressing and remain confident in the outlook for Subsea and Conventional. On the next slide we have our wind prospects. U.K. CFD allocation round, which took place in July after a one-year delay, has finally unlocked prospects in this region, and Subsea 7 is the preferred supplier on East Anglia Three and Seagreen 1A.

In addition, it is preferred supplier on He Dreiht in Germany and the U.S. Wind project. We expect this pre-backlog to convert to firm awards toward the end of this year and early next year, adding visibility to our fleet utilization into 2025. Before I wrap up, a quick look at a different type of project. In May, we published Inspiring People: The Subsea 7 Story, which celebrates 20 years of our company and 75 years of history of the predecessor companies that are part of Subsea 7 today. It is full of stories and photographs taken from our rich heritage of entrepreneurial spirit, adaptation, innovation and endeavor. From the industry's first purpose-built pipelay barge, the L.E. Minor , to Angola's first deepwater project at Girassol, the book shares memories, anecdotes, and insights from our founders and executives who spent their careers shaping the industry.

The link to the online version is on this slide. I hope you'll read it and enjoy learning more about the people, companies, and projects that have made Subsea 7 the world-class energy service contractor it is today. To close, we turn to slide 19. In the subsea, the post-COVID recovery has been reinforced by the West's drive for energy security. Our core markets remain strong and we are beginning to see the uplift of activity spreading to other regions. Prices are improving and the supply chain has stabilized. In fixed offshore wind, our prospects are maturing with over $1 billion of pre-backlog to be converted to firm orders in the coming 6 months. The market for our services is tightening and this is driving an improvement in pricing and risk allocation.

To conclude, our backlog is at a seven-year high. Our tendering teams are busy, and we are well placed to deliver a combination of long-term growth and capital returns for our shareholders. With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

Operator

Just a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced, please. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Please stand by. Our first question comes from the line of Kévin Roger. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Kévin Roger
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. The first one is related to the Subsea business. So you had a very good performance in Q2, almost 18% margin, what we consider at one time as a kind of close to normalized margin at Subsea 7. So would you consider this performance in Q2 as repeatable in the short term, or you consider it more as a kind of one-off? And the second one still related to the Subsea. In the presentation you mentioned that basically the backlog is back to the record level that you had in 2014, so back to the level of that time. So here again, are we, let's say, close to the revival of the performance that you had at that time, please?

John Evans
CEO, Subsea7

Yeah. Thank you, Kévin. Thanks for your questions. As we've always said to everybody that follows us, it's best to look at us over a year, and we guided for where we want to be for the year. I don't expect Q2's performance to be repeated regularly throughout the rest of the year. We did say in our prepared remarks that we had very good operational performance across the suite of projects that we have, as well as some commercial settlements in some regions as we closed out certain projects.

In terms of longer term, the position that we're in, yes, we have a good backlog, but I think we have guided a number of times that we expect our profitability to improve from the second half of 2023, and then work its way back towards more normalized positions in terms of expectations for profit. For us, we are bringing in the backlog, which is good. We will be liquidating it starting back end of this year, and we do expect from the middle of next year to see an improvement in our profitability.

Kévin Roger
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, I understand. If maybe I can add one, I don't know if you will prefer to keep this question for the call of Seaway 7, but recently announced the first project in the U.S., transport and installation. I was wondering if you can give us a bit, some visibility on how you will execute the project in a way to counter potentially the Jones Act, et cetera, because execution in the country can be largely, let's say, damaged by a Jones Act, et cetera.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea7

Yeah. We can't announce which project it is at the moment because our client has asked to keep that confidential, but it'll be cable lay work. Again, we have worked on cable lay activities in the U.S. in the past. We did the main demonstrator project in East Coast, U.S. a couple of years ago. As you know, with Subsea 7, the parent has been in the U.S. for nearly 40 years, so we're very, very familiar with the Jones Act. You know, our U.S. team has worked very closely with the Seaway 7 team to make sure that we pitch our bid and our offering fully in compliance with the Jones Act.

Kévin Roger
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Okay, perfect. Thanks a lot for that.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question. Please stand by. Next question is from James Thompson from JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

James Thompson
Analyst, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Okay. Thanks. Thank you very much for the presentation, as well. Just a couple of questions from me, please. Firstly, just on the renewables business, I was quite interested to understand of the kind of pre-FID projects, you know, what sort of revenue expectations can we expect for them in 2023? You know, I know you've only got about $150 million of revenues in hand for that division at this point in time. So just to understand, you know, how much influence the large projects that are there and ready, how much influence they can have on next year.

Secondly, you know, in terms of your discussions around pricing and the kind of overall environment actually improving for tendering discussions and things like that, I was particularly interested in, you know, some of the challenges in the supply chain kind of moderating. John, I was wondering if you could just put some more color behind that really. You know, how sustainable is that improvement? You know, just help us understand where the kind of better conditions are really appearing from a supply chain perspective, particularly.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea7

Okay, James. Thank you. I'll take the supply chain one first and come back to the renewables. I guess when we spoke at the end of Q1, the market was still very much bouncing around from the Russia-Ukraine issues, and it was quite difficult at that point to get guaranteed slots and guaranteed pricing in the market to allow us to progress with our clients towards surety on project. What we have seen from about early May was that the relevant markets such as steel and stainless steel and some of the input materials that we need. At least our suppliers and their sub-suppliers were finding a way of being able to give us the surety that we needed. As I said in the prepared remarks, the costs are higher, so this isn't that the problems have all gone away.

Certainly, the costs are higher, but the surety on production slots and availability of materials has become easier from around early May, which has allowed us to progress to close things like Búzios 8, CLOV 3, as Mark mentioned in his prepared remarks. It's not all back to normal and all the problems have gone away. There is a way through the mechanisms that I discussed in my prepared remarks about index-linked pricing and such like, that there is a way to pass those elements through to our clients for them to make decisions, do they want to proceed with their projects with assurance around how we would evaluate price, how we would adjust the prices as the project moves ahead. Also more importantly, to get the production slots and the raw materials available.

Please don't take it that everything is sorted, but we have found a form of equilibrium that does allow the industry to contract. You've seen the backlog in our sector has been quite good across the board in quarter two. In terms of renewables, the two main projects are subject to FID by our clients. We have those steps to proceed, but the clients are progressing down those paths. Our project for Iberdrola on East Anglia is a transport and install project in the outer years. I think that the contribution for 2023 will be relatively low. It will be basic engineering and installation activities. Seagreen 1A is an EPCI, so there will be procurement, fabrication, cable manufacture and such like for 1A.

Two different projects, two different contracting models, and that's what we should expect working our way into 2023.

James Thompson
Analyst, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Okay. We'll get some contribution from that, but I guess it's gonna be down here from a revenue perspective. Thanks very much, John. Appreciate the answers on both those. Over.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea7

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will take our next question. Please stand by. Our next question is from Nikhil Gupta from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Nikhil Gupta
Analyst, Citigroup

Hi. I have a question on the bidding pipeline. Clearly, around the commentaries, that the pipeline is increasing. Wanted to understand how much of the increase is compared to six months back, how much increases due to inflation and how much increases due to the additional work or on newer projects? Any kind of guidance or colors there?

John Evans
CEO, Subsea7

Yeah. Thank you, Nikhil. I think for us, we're seeing two things. We continue to see Brazil and Petrobras's project pipeline continuing to deliver opportunities each quarter with major new bids arriving. This should not be a surprise to us because Petrobras has been very clear they intend to develop 15 SURF projects and their associated FPSOs in the next three years. In our discussions with Petrobras on a regular basis, they're pretty clear that the management will continue to offer those opportunities to the market. The solidness of opportunities in Brazil is clear to us. Guyana continues to have further opportunities which will come into the market.

Last but not least, and we've discussed this a number of times, we do expect Norway to turn a number of opportunities where we're the preferred bidder into firm awards for us in quarter four or early quarter one of next year. That's all to do with our clients getting their paperwork in and their regulatory requirements in to make sure they are having their approvals in by the end of this year. We do expect Norway to turn in that way as well. To answer your question, yes, there's inflation in the cost number, which is working its way through, but there is a pretty solid demand. The other thing in the prepared text, we can see things picking up slowly. In the U.K., we've seen projects like Jackdaw gain approvals.

The U.K. is starting to move and that's been a good market for us over the years. We're also pleased to see the Subsea Integration Alliance working with Chariot in Morocco on an exclusive basis to try to assist them getting their Moroccan opportunity up and running. There are new regions and new opportunities starting to come there as well. A bit of both, I think is the answer to your question.

Nikhil Gupta
Analyst, Citigroup

Thank you. I'll turn it over.

Operator

Thank you. Please remember, if you would like to ask a question, press star one one on your telephone. We will take another question. Please stand by. Next question is from Haakon Amundsen, from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Haakon Amundsen
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Yes. Hello, guys. Two questions from me, please. First one, sorry if I missed this in the prepared remarks, but I was wondering if you can give an update on the working capital development you expect during the year, if there's any changes to that from the last time you guided. Secondly, if you can give some color on, you know, it looks like your project execution in offshore wind is quite different from in oil and gas, your Subsea and Conventional business. Just wondering if you can give some color on what is now changing in offshore wind. Are you getting the same kind of escalation, inflation protection, other kind of project elements and pricing elements into those contracts. Is that what's improving? Thank you.

Mark Foley
CFO, Subsea7

Good morning, Haakon. This is Mark. I'll take the working capital item. In Q2, working capital build was $63 million. That took us to a working capital build in the first half of the year of $96 million. Our expectation remains intact with the guidance that we previously communicated to the market, but we expect the working capital build this year to be in the region of below to mid-hundred million dollars. The drivers behind that are the projects that we acquired into the backlog in certain jurisdictions, Brazil with Petrobras and with Saudi Aramco in Saudi Arabia, where the profile of payments were somewhat more adverse than customary experience elsewhere within the portfolio. Our working capital guidance remains intact.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea7

Thank you, Mark. On the Renewables, I guess the Renewables, there's two different areas for us to think about. One is risk allocation, and the industry, I think, is having a long, hard look at risk allocation. We could have taken a lot more awards in the first six months of the year, this year, and you can see that Seaway 7's order intake in the first six months is quite thin, because we have been much clearer now about getting those risk allocations correct. First of all, it's about getting the balance of risk right for the rewards that we get out of the projects. Secondly, Renewables is all about production, repeat production over and over and over again. Whereas a SURF project is multiple work phases, multiple tasks, multiple type of activities.

If there's any issue on your productivity, delivery, it doesn't repeat 300 times or whatever when you've got 300 piles to put in on an offshore wind project. Lastly, in Seaway 7's case, as we communicated in June, the Alfa Lift has been further delayed in China in terms of emission equipment and the delivery of that. We've had to put the Seaway Strashnov to work on Dogger Bank next year, which again has a different efficiency factor, and therefore then there are increases there. Three different elements which are very different from the oil and gas. Our fleet in oil and gas is fully functioning and built. Our risk profile and contracting models are pretty well established in oil and gas.

Oil and gas is about multiple work phases, ability to manage delays or whatever by being able to move assets around in different fields and different projects. Whereas renewables is a repeat on a production basis of the same thing many times over. A lot of work has been done by Stuart Fitzgerald and the team in the last six months about the risk profiles we need, and I think the whole industry is going through that learning process. That's why we are comfortable with that work in pre-backlog, and we have tended to shun some of the work that was on offer to us in the earlier part of this year.

Haakon Amundsen
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

All right. That was very helpful. Thanks. That's it for me.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea7

Thank you, Haakon.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions. Speakers, please continue.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea7

Okay. Well, thank you very much. I appreciate everybody joining. We know it's a very, very busy day today. I'm sure we'll talk to you offline, and we look forward to catching up with you in our Q3 results, later this year. Thank you very much.

Mark Foley
CFO, Subsea7

Thank you. Goodbye.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Speakers, please stand by.

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