Subsea 7 S.A. (OSL:SUBC)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Nov 17, 2022

Operator

Good day. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Subsea 7 S.A. Q3 2022 results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Katherine Tonks. Please go ahead.

Katherine Tonks
Director of Investor Relations, Subsea 7

Welcome, everyone. With me on the call today are John Evans, our CEO, and Mark Foley, our CFO. The results press release is available to download on our website, along with the presentation slides that we'll be referring to during today's call. May I remind you that this call includes forward-looking statements that reflect our current views and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Similar wording is also included in our press release. I'll now turn the call over to John.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

Thank you, Katherine. Good afternoon, everyone. I will start with a summary of the third quarter of 2022 before handing over to Mark to cover the financial results. Turning to slide three. In the third quarter, Subsea 7 delivered a robust performance in Subsea and Conventional, whilst our performance in renewables stabilized. We announced an important transaction for our Subsea business, the creation of a new joint venture with Schlumberger and Aker Solutions. We also announced an equity raise and new lending facilities for Seaway 7. Turning to slide four. In the third quarter, we continued to make progress in decarbonizing our fleet with a commitment to convert the Seven Arctic to hybrid power. Conversion will take place at the time of the vessel's class survey next year and will reduce our CO2 emissions by around 5,000 tons per annum.

Turning to slide five for the customary update on our largest projects. In Türkiye, the fast-track Sakarya project has reached 73% progress, up from 50% at Q2. The main shallow water umbilical scope was completed during the quarter, and the Seven Arctic sailed into the Bosphorus Strait, commencing installation activities in Q4. Sangomar reached 64% complete with the spooling of the pipelines at our base in Vigra, Norway, and mobilization of the Seven Vega and Seven Oceans to Senegal, followed by pipelay activities in the field. In Brazil, we continue to manage fabrication of the CRA pipeline for the Bacalhau project, and we are preparing the Ubu spool base to commence welding operations. At Mero 3, procurement continued. Our vessels were also busy on Toco project in Trinidad and Tobago, on the Kobra East Gekko project in Norway, and on Equinor's Northern Lights carbon capture project.

In renewables, we have installed 65 foundations and 43 cables for the Seagreen project by the end of September. All 114 jackets have been dispatched to the U.K. from yards in China and the Middle East, and we remain on track to complete the work around the year-end. Finally, we commenced offshore activities on Dogger Bank A and B with the Seaway Strashnov and reached 29% completion at the end of September. The vessel will leave the field for the winter season as planned and will return in 2023 to continue the offshore phase. Turning to slide six. In Q3, we rolled out Make Possible, a way of simplifying how we communicate our strategy to our stakeholders, both internally and externally. Our strategy continues to be built around our foundation of our six values.

Wherever we operate and whichever sector of the energy landscape, these are the six principles that guide us. On the right, we have the key enabling elements that make our strategy possible, namely early engagement, collaboration, integrated services, sustainable delivery, digital solutions, and enabling product. These apply across all those sectors in which we operate, whether we are addressing SURF, wind, CCUS, or hydrogen. Ultimately, our ambition is to support our clients by delivering energy transition solutions that will enable both the continuous evolution of a lower carbon oil and gas, and the growth of renewables and emerging energy. Turning to slide eight and our joint venture with Schlumberger and Aker Solutions. The Subsea Integration Alliance has been the cornerstone of our integrated offering in Subsea and has been a great success, with $4 billion of awards net to Subsea 7 since January 2020.

In September, we announced that Subsea 7 will be investing three hundred and six and a half million dollars for a 10% stake in a new joint venture that will combine Schlumberger's OneSubsea and Aker Solutions Subsea operations into one NewCo. Our payment will be made in two equal installments post the completion of the deal in the second half of 2023 and in 2024. The joint venture will become Subsea 7's new partner in the Subsea Integration Alliance, replacing Schlumberger. What does this mean for Subsea 7? First and foremost, the aim of the transaction is to strengthen our long-term position in the Subsea market. We do this with a view to both the near-term opportunities that will result from the current upcycle, as well as the longer term, as Subsea continues to be a key part of the energy transition.

The transaction is part of the strategic jigsaw that will keep Subsea 7 at the forefront of the industry and ensure we maximize value creation and ultimately free cash flow generation for our shareholders. By acquiring a 10% stake in the joint venture, Subsea 7 will be cementing its relationships with our partners in the SIA. We will take one of the six seats on the board, which will give us visibility over the Subsea hardware strategy as the industry evolves through the energy transition. We will also become part owner of an umbilical manufacturer, a key element in our supply chain. Of course, we will receive a dividend from the NewCo. Turning to slide 10 and the funding of Seaway 7.

In recent weeks, a $200 million equity raise has been completed, as well as the finalization of debt facilities of $450 million to give a total liquidity of $650 million. This is sufficient to cover the upcoming CapEx commitment related to Seaway 7's new build program, as well as minor vessel upgrades and dry docks. It leaves Seaway 7 fully funded and the two state-of-the-art offshore installation vessels due for delivery by the end of 2023. Reflecting the strong outlook for offshore wind and reaffirming our belief that Seaway 7 shares are materially undervalued, Subsea 7 subscribed to 72% of the equity raise, maintaining our shareholding. This was mirrored by the two other large major shareholders in Seaway 7, Songa Capital and Lotus Marine.

The two steps in Subsea and wind together strengthen our position across the energy landscape at a time when demand for both traditional and new energy resources continues to grow. I'll hand over to Mark to now run through the financial results.

Mark Foley
CFO, Subsea 7

Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. I begin the financial results review with some details of group performance in the third quarter before turning to the business units. Slide 11 summarizes the backlog position at the end of the third quarter. Order intake was $1 billion, bringing the year-to-date book-to-bill to 1.1x , resulting in a group backlog at the end of the quarter of $7.1 billion. Order intake included $600 million of new awards, including Gas to Energy in Guyana, Trell and Trine in Norway, and the Moray West Offshore Wind Project in the U.K. The renewables backlog of $600 million excludes projects for which Seaway 7 has been selected as a preferred bidder.

Escalations of approximately $400 million, comprising variation orders and contractual price escalations across several projects, were partially offset by unfavorable foreign exchange movements of the Norwegian krone, Brazilian real, sterling, and the euro against the dollar of approximately $200 million. $1.3 billion in backlog is expected to be executed in the fourth quarter and $3.2 billion in 2023. Turning to slide 12 on the headline results for the group. Revenue was $1.4 billion, broadly flat year-on-year, as we continue to execute our large EPCI project in both Subsea and Conventional and renewables.

Adjusted EBITDA of $171 million was down 7% compared with the prior year period, and the margin decreased to 12.2% from 12.8%, reflecting the high level of contract closeouts in the prior year quarter. Other gains and losses was -$23 million, driven in part by non-cash embedded derivative foreign exchange movements. This, together with a high effective tax rate due to a shift in operational profitability towards high tax jurisdictions and the impact of irrecoverable withholding taxes, combined to impact net income, which was break-even in the quarter. I will now discuss the drivers for the Group results in the next few slides. Slide 13 presents the key metrics of Subsea and Conventional.

Order intake was $700 million, equating to a third quarter book-to-bill of 0.7x, resulting in a slight sequential dip in backlog to $6.5 billion. Revenue was $1 billion, broadly flat year-on-year, reflecting good progress on the fast-track Sakarya project, as well as our other large EPCI projects. Adjusted EBITDA was $142 million with a margin of 14.3%, down from the 15% in the third quarter of 2021. This reflects a continued strong underlying performance in the quarter, but with a lower contribution from project closeouts year-on-year. Selected renewables performance metrics are shown on slide 14. Order intake in renewables was around $200 million, taking the backlog to $600 million.

As I mentioned earlier, Seaway 7 has been awarded preferred supplier status on several projects, and we should rebuild the backlog over the coming months. Revenue from renewables was $374 million, flat year-on-year, reflecting continued high activity on the Seagreen project. During the quarter, Formosa 2 and the foundation scope of Horns Rev South were completed. Adjusted EBITDA was $21 million, up slightly year-on-year, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.5%. Slide 15 shows the cash flow waterfall for the third quarter. Net cash generated from operating activities was $210 million, including an $87 million improvement in working capital.

Year-to-date, the build in working capital has been just $9 million as a result of projects rephasing into 2023, notably procurement related to Mero 3 and Marjan 2, as well as management's further efforts to optimize cash. Cash conversion, measuring the conversion of adjusted EBITDA into adjusted operating cash was 1.4x. Net cash used in financing activities was $76 million, mainly attributable to purchases of property, plant, and equipment associated with vessel dry docks and upgrades. Free cash flow in the period was $131 million. Net cash used in financing activities was $60 million. This included $27 million of lease liability payments, mainly related to charter vessels and $21 million of share repurchases.

At the end of the quarter, cash and cash equivalents was $533 million, and net debt was $33 million, which included lease liabilities of $204 million. The group's liquidity includes $1 billion of committed undrawn borrowing facilities. In March, as part of our commitment to return excess cash to shareholders, we announced a share repurchase program of approximately $70 million. As of market closing yesterday, $45 million or 64% of the $70 million had been utilized. To conclude the financial review, slide 16 shows our expectations for the full year of 2022, as well as some preliminary guidance for 2023. Consistent with our update in July, revenue and adjusted EBITDA in 2022 are expected to be broadly in line with 2021.

We now also expect net operating income to be broadly in line with 2021. We have updated our guidance regarding taxation. We expect taxation to be between $80 million and $90 million, adjusted upwards from between $50 million and $60 million. The revision is driven by a shift in forecast profitability towards higher tax jurisdictions, together with an increase in forecast withholding taxes. In some instances, these withholding taxes will be recoverable under the contractual terms with our clients. There have been no other changes to the financial guidance since the second quarter 2022 earnings presentation. Turning to our preliminary guidance for 2023, we expect revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be higher than 2022, and we are comfortable with the current 2023 adjusted EBITDA consensus of $663 million.

We expect group capital expenditure to be within a range from $480 million-$500 million, including $310 million-$330 million associated with Seaway 7. I will now pass you back to John.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

Thank you, Mark. On slide 17, we have a reminder of our capital allocation framework. On the left, we have Subsea and Conventional, which benefits from the industry's youngest and most capable fleet of vessels, requiring little growth CapEx. The investment in the Subsea joint venture gives us an even stronger base from which to generate cash flow during this upcycle and beyond. On the right, we have Seaway 7, which as a result of the Q3 funding plan, now has a firm foundation from which to become financially independent. On slide 18, we have a reminder of our track record of dividends and buybacks over the past 11 years, which has seen over $2.2 billion returned to shareholders.

We were amongst the first of our peers to reintroduce returns after the oil price shock of 2020 with a regular NOK 1 per share dividend and a buyback of $70 million, which, as Mark said, we aim to execute before the Q4 results announcement in March. Now we'll move on to our outlook slides, starting with the prospects for Subsea market on slide 19. Tendering activities remain high with a tender pipeline of around $16 billion, up 20% on prior year, and discussions with our clients remain positive despite the uncertainties in the global political and economic environment. Regionally, the story remains consistent, with customer spending focused on three hotspots, Norway, Gulf of Mexico and Brazil. We have also seen an uptick in opportunities in the U.K. and Saudi Arabia.

As we near the end of the year and the cutoff for the Norwegian Government tax relief scheme, we anticipate the conversion of FEED studies, deferred EPCI projects. In Brazil, Petrobras continues to move ahead with its planned FPSOs. Having remained focused on the delivery of its ambitious plans, we do not expect any material changes to this strategy under a Lula Presidency. Finally, in the U.S., the Subsea tieback market remains active, whilst in Guyana, the award of our first substantial project bodes well for our future in this new region. Overall, we're encouraged by the way the recovery is progressing and remain confident in the outlook for Subsea and Conventional. Availability of our vessels is tight for 2024 and tightening for 2025 and beyond, which is driving improved pricing of our EPCI. On the next slide, we have our wind prospects.

As we noted before, Seaway 7 is the preferred supplier on East Anglia 3, Seagreen 1A, He Dreiht in Germany and the US Wind project. We expect this pre-backlog to convert to firm awards during the end of the year and early next year, adding visibility to our fleet utilization into 2025. In addition to the pre-backlog, we are currently tendering fixed offshore wind projects worth around $7 billion. To wrap up, we turn to slide 21. In Subsea, demand is underpinned by a drive for energy security after a prolonged period of under-investment by the industry. Meanwhile, we see little risk of new vessel additions in our core Subsea market, suggesting the potential for a sustained upturn.

With a fleet of young vessels requiring only maintenance levels of reinvestment, we believe the Subsea business is poised to generate strong cash flows from 2024 onwards. In renewables, Seaway 7 is well placed to capture a share of the growing fixed offshore wind market with a fully funded new build program. Delivery of new vessels should coincide with a step change in the pricing and risk allocation on new projects, including those in our pre-backlog. We continue to believe this business has the building blocks in place to generate EBITDA margins of 10% or more. In new energies, we have strong positions in floating wind and carbon capture. This strategy leaves us well-positioned to generate returns for our shareholders over the long term as the energy transition unfolds. Now, we'll be happy to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Kévin Roger from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please ask your question.

Kévin Roger
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. The first one will be related to the Subsea business, please, and notably the wording that you have in the press release saying that the markets start to be very tight for 2024-2025 and so the condition on which you set your projects are today much better than before. I was wondering if you can provide us more color on what kind of margin you can embark in the new orders that you get in the Subsea business, please, for the coming year. Notably one question also on a specific project related to the pricing power of the industry. It has been said that the discussion on the project that is named Mero 4 in Brazil has been ended and this part between Saipem and Petrobras.

Is it the kind of work that you can do in 2024 or 2025? If you can give us also some elements on that side. The last question on my side. You have a pre-backlog that is quite large, something like $1 billion in Subsea, if I'm correct, and $1 billion in wind. Do you have more visibility on the timing for this pre-backlog to get the official FID and so coming into an order, please?

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

Okay. Thank you, Kévin. Let me work backwards and then we will take the questions in reverse order. In oil and gas, we have positions in a number of projects, for example, in Norway, which we do expect to turn into firm work either at the end of Q4 or early Q1 next year. As I mentioned in our prepared remarks, that's associated with supporting both Equinor and Aker BP in their work which is associated with the Norwegian tax break that requires PDO submission by the 31st of December. The oil and gas work, we would expect that to turn into work hopefully no later than Q1 next year. That has a path for us.

In terms of the wind, the wind prospects are primarily related to U.K. projects where our clients understood their positions on the Contract for Difference awards that were done earlier this year and are now going through their own internal FID reviews. Again, we expect those to be back end of this year, early part of next year. The only slow cloud on the horizon there is any potential tax changes that may come out of today's budget in the U.K., again, is as part of the timing in which all that fits together. We can see a path that most of this pre-backlog should be in our books by the end of Q1 next year, all things being equal. Mero 4, I can't speak on behalf of Saipem.

We know that they had bid that package. We had not bid that package as we had no availability in the original windows, but we have availability slightly later if the windows were adjusted in the new bidding process. Again, we've indicated because we've been asked by Petrobras our availability, so we've told them what our availability is. We'll see how they engage with the market if they want to adjust their windows to a slightly different availability period later than we could originally offer on Mero 4. In terms of margins, Kévin, I think I'll give you the usual answer I give, that every project is a step-by-step adjustment. As each project goes into the backlog, it generally has a slightly better margin than others.

It is not a huge step change that we are seeing, but it works its way upwards. We're at that lowest point in the cycle, you know, in the double digits, EBITDA margin, but not much higher than that at the moment. We are building up the way, and we expect our margins to be heading towards the high EBITDA teens as this margin accretion works its way through. I think just keep thinking of it as incremental movements, quarter-on-quarter, and I think we should be okay in terms of how we see that work. Of course, we've talked to the market before that 2023 has been about liquidating the last of the lower margin work.

I think in our prepared remarks, we talked about our inflection and our profitability is the second half of 2023. Hopefully that gives you a flavor how to think about it.

Kévin Roger
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah. Perfect. Thanks for that.

Operator

Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Nikhil Gupta from Citi. Please ask your question.

Nikhil Gupta
Managing Director, Citi

Hi. My question is, you know, in terms of, you know, when you say capacity for the vessels is, you know, quite tight in 2024-2025. How does that compare, you know, like how much is already booked for 2023, 2024, you know, for Subsea 7 and, you know, for the industry? You know, just comparing like Subsea 7 and the industries. That's my first question.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

I think, you know, the way to look at it at the moment is this is about the key enabling assets. You know, we have a large pool of assets, but we are very clear that our big rigid pipe layer and our very largest heavy construction vessels are the key enablers. Generally, those assets then spin off work in a sort of fixed ratio down towards our smaller asset base. As we sit here today, going into 2023, we're comfortable with our backlog in terms of what we've got. As I discussed earlier on Kévin's question, we can see a path for more awards to come into 2023 and 2024. We know where our key competitors' assets are and what work they have awarded themselves. It's tightening. That's the message we've given.

Uh, it's definitely tightening, not just for us. It's tightening for everybody in that market. Um, the key thing for us, the tightening that allows the pricing to adjust. And as that tightening gets, uh, closer there, as Kévin said, projects like Mero 3, though, obviously one of our, uh, competitors did push the pricing up to a point where probably our clients rethought that they would look at the schedule and the timing and the constraints of that project. So that's the dynamics of a market on the upward, uh, tick. And, um, that's the way we need to think about it, I think.

Nikhil Gupta
Managing Director, Citi

Okay. Thanks. That's clear. You know, if I could, just on 2023 guidance, you know, when, you know, you say EBITDA higher than 2022, like consensus is already 30% higher. You know, just, you know, probably a bit more color around there would be helpful.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

I'll ask Mark.

Mark Foley
CFO, Subsea 7

Yeah, sure. Thank you. As I remarked in my prepared statement, we are comfortable with the current 2023 adjusted EBITDA of $663 million. That gives you an indication of the movement from 2022 into 2023 around our EBITDA expansion.

Nikhil Gupta
Managing Director, Citi

Okay. Thanks. I will turn it over.

Operator

Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Jørgen Opheim from Pareto. Please ask your question.

Jørgen Opheim
Equity Analyst, Pareto

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one on the funding. Is the committed funding from Subsea 7 to Seaway 7 in addition to the already drawn $195 million unsecured working capital facility, or will the new facilities replace the facility? Thanks.

Mark Foley
CFO, Subsea 7

Yeah. Thank you for your question. This is Mark. As part of the new funding arrangement for Seaway 7, Seaway 7 will pay back the amount drawn from the Subsea 7 working capital arrangement and will utilize their $300 million RCF. Similarly, there is a $150 million shareholder loan RCF facility in place as well. However, the firm expectation for that bridge financing is that it will not be drawn, but instead replaced by other sources of core debt. The idea through the financing of Subsea 7 through the packages which we've announced, both debt and equity, is that the amounts drawn from the Subsea 7 working capital will be paid back.

Jørgen Opheim
Equity Analyst, Pareto

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Møllerløkken from SpareBank 1 Markets. Please ask your question.

Christopher Møllerløkken
Equity Research Analyst, SpareBank 1 Markets

Yes, good afternoon. This is Christopher Møllerløkken from SpareBank 1 Markets. The backlog for the renewables business remained low in 2023, but as you alluded to in your prepared remarks, there are some potential contracts there which are expected to be awarded relatively shortly. Could you just remind us how that will impact 2023? Will those contracts mainly come for execution in 2024 and thereafter? Thank you.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

Yeah. Thank you, Christopher. I think I gave part of the answer to Kévin, but again, I can reiterate here. We have declared publicly before this call and in this call what the pre-backlog is. There is a project in Germany called He Dreiht which go through its usual sanctioning work which is a T&I type project. That will not have a material impact to 2023. We also have a project in the U.S., which we cannot declare at the moment, but again, that will not be material to 2023. The main areas for 2023 will be Sakarya and Seagreen 1A.

They will be the ones that will have an impact there, as well as continuing to liquidate the work we're doing, as we discussed earlier, on Dogger Bank A and B, as well as the portfolio of Taiwanese cable project contracts there. As I said in Kévin's question, those projects will go through their final investment decisions with their operators in the next few months. The only thing that we're all keeping an eye on is what will happen in parallel to this call with the U.K. Chancellor's discussion about his taxation plans. You know, if there's any major changes in people's views on taxation and things, that may or may not speed up or slow down the award of those contracts.

For us, we are reasonably comfortable that we have a clear plan for next year as to how things fit together. You know, we're in dialogue with all our key clients and, you know, it's one where, again, the exact timing in which this turns into awards is January to February to March. We're pretty clear that we have a plan here.

Christopher Møllerløkken
Equity Research Analyst, SpareBank 1 Markets

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Guillaume Delaby from SG. Please ask your question.

Guillaume Delaby
Head of Energy Services, SG

Yes, good afternoon. Two questions on the tightening once again. If I'm listening carefully to you and if I'm listening carefully to your peers, i.e., Saipem, TechnipFMC, I got the impression that there is a step change between what you've been saying and what your peers have been saying in Q2 and what you are saying now regarding tightening in 2024. Am I correct to assume that over the last three or four months, there has been basically some massive acceleration of securing assets? This is my first question. The second related question, I understand from your answer to Kévin's question that at this stage, this tightening is not yet really translating into future higher margin. Should we understand that this ramp-up in tightening should nonetheless translate in higher margin by 2025 or 2026? Thank you very much.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

Okay. Guillaume, let me take your second question. The point is all about the blended set of projects that we have running through each year, and my answer has been pretty consistent over the last three quarters, is that each project is better margin than the other. It's sort of blend. Directionally, absolutely, we're heading to higher margins, and we're pretty comfortable here that we can see good higher margins for the business in 2024 and 2025. I think we've quoted the last two quarters that we can see our vessels are tightening for 2024 and 2025. I don't think it's a massive acceleration, but it's exactly what we thought would happen between us and our peers. Projects one by one are getting awarded, which is tightening the vessels.

If you come back to the question on Mero 4, what happened on Mero 4? Well, you know, we couldn't bid Mero 4 'cause we had no vessels available in the window that was originally offered, which again means there's a tightening happening there. I think it's not a massive tightening, but it's the logical conclusion. As different awards get made to the market, whether it's to us or to our two main competitors, it takes capacity out, which then means that the amount of spare capacity is tighter. I think the message has been pretty consistent from our side. I think it mirrors what our peers are saying, but the effect of the tightening is now real. Our projects are now awarded quarter-on-quarter, which takes spare capacity out.

Guillaume Delaby
Head of Energy Services, SG

Okay. To be just, yeah, just maybe to be more correct, it is more your peers where I noticed a change in the tone, to be honest. Yes.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

Yeah. I don't think we're misaligned, by the way. It's just the fact that we said for the last two quarters, or previous two quarters, that we could see a tightening coming in 2024 and 2025. I think everybody has now seen it. It's there. I think everybody in the industry sees the same situation.

Guillaume Delaby
Head of Energy Services, SG

Thank you very much.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

Good question. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of James Thompson from JP Morgan. Please ask your question.

James Thompson
Analyst, JPMorgan

Great. Hi, John. Thanks very much for your answers so far. James here at JPM Just firstly, John, just in terms of sort of progress through projects, I mean, I'm sure it sort of varies quarter-by-quarter, but didn't seem like you made an awful lot of progress on things like Mero 3 and Bacalhau, particularly versus, you know, Sakarya was obviously, you know, a relatively fast project anyway. Maybe could you give us some views there? I mean, obviously a lot of political change happening right now. You know, is there a bit of a risk to the rate at which Petrobras does things here?

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

Yeah, James. I think like all these things, you know, a project like Sangomar and TPAO and Sakarya make progress because we've got a whole raft of assets working on them all at the same time. You know, we ramp up through very quickly. As we said in the prepared remarks, Mero 3 is about procurement. Bacalhau is more advanced than that. Those two projects are going exactly as per the plan. We're not slowing down. We're not speeding up. Bacalhau is getting ready to start the Ubú spool base to weld up all the materials that we've done into continuous strings for us then to install in a couple of quarters' time. We're not seeing any change in any pace in Brazil.

In our prepared remarks, I made the comment that we don't think that a Lula presidency should interrupt the progress, although you'll have the usual review of, you know, chief executives of Petrobras, et cetera, that will take place. One reflection that I've got is, you know, we've been through many changes politically, but the machine has kept moving in terms of its plans, and we see no wavering in terms of their ambitious plans. You know, they've ordered a bunch of FPSOs. The conversation on Mero 4. As a matter of fact, they've ordered an FPSO, and now they're trying to secure their surface capacity to go with it. I think at the moment, we're pretty comfortable here that the key projects that we're working on are all moving to a plan.

Yeah, there's a lot of challenges in the world politically and economically, but certainly it's more about acceleration than slowing down is what we're seeing at the moment.

James Thompson
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay, thanks. Maybe, you know, just in terms of kind of capital allocation, I mean, what do you think about potential to kind of increase distribution to shareholders over the next couple of years? I mean, obviously you've committed funds to Seaway 7 this year, and you're gonna commit significant funds over 2023 and 2024 to the new Subsea JV. You know, maybe what could you say really about whether that limits or not ability to kind of grow distribution to shareholders? Maybe following on from that, actually, I'll kind of ask these questions together. I just wondered, you know, obviously a lot of questions about a tight market in 2024, 2025. Clearly upstream companies have remained relatively capital disciplined now for some time. Obviously, you know, both yourselves and other oil services too.

I just wondered, you know, do you see any kind of ambition to build new kind of enabling assets within, you know, yourselves, your peer group? Does this kind of commitment to the Subsea JV maybe restrict your ability to do that if it is getting very tight?

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

Many, many questions, and they're all packed up into one there, James. New assets, as I said in my prepared remarks, you know, we see nobody building new assets in the oil and gas space, and we don't see any plans for anybody to do so. That's okay by us. Just keeps tightening the market.

James Thompson
Analyst, JPMorgan

Mm-hmm

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

Doing it. We've seen from the last cycle, a lot of people learned the hard way that building one ship doesn't mean you become one of the big three players in this industry. I think people understood after that that, you know, the entry ticket into this dance is very expensive. It's not just the assets, it's the quality of the offshore and onshore people and the whole systems and approach you take. I think the joint venture on the Subsea hardware will just strengthen our position in that, and the entry barriers will be higher. I think for us it's about pretty comfortable that at the moment we've got some very good years ahead of us there.

Cap discipline from operators, absolutely, but we've been through many cycles in the past where, again, they will try to remain as capital disciplined as they can. Ultimately, today, the world is trying to solve a set of equations and the sort of problems here about energy supply and energy demand and how do they want to do that. You know, there's many choices in which they choose to do that, but they need more wind or more oil and gas. We're pretty sure the world needs a bit of everything. You know, that's on offer. For us, you know, we're cognizant of the fact that our clients will always make the best decisions for their shareholders. In terms of distributions, I'll have Mark to talk about just the way to think about that.

Mark Foley
CFO, Subsea 7

As you're aware, James, in March, we introduced a dividend policy of NOK 1 per share. In addition, we had paid around NOK 30 million to shareholders as a dividend payment in May, and with $45 million through our $70 million share repurchase program. As we've indicated, we do expect 2024 and 2025 cash flow generation to be strong. I'm sure the Board will reflect upon that around their capital allocation policy around returning excess cash to shareholders. Hopefully, we will remain committed to our policy of ensuring that shareholders are well rewarded for their investment in Subsea 7.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

Okay. Thanks, both. I'll hand over.

Operator

Thank you. We will take our next question. Please stand by. The question comes from the line of Haakon Amundsen from ABG Sundal Collier. Please ask your question.

Haakon Amundsen
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Yes. Hello, guys. Two questions from me, please, just on cash flow. You did have some comment on working capital in your prepared remarks, Mark. I just wanna clarify. Has the overall picture in terms of change in working capital improved due to your efforts in that regard? Secondly, when you carve out the Seaway 7 portion of your 2023 guided CapEx, it looks like the running maintenance CapEx is a little bit up on Subsea 7 level. Is that just inflation or is there any special elements to that? Thank you.

Mark Foley
CFO, Subsea 7

Yeah. Let me answer the working capital piece first, Haakon. Firstly, yes, we are pleased with the results of our efforts so far this year to optimize cash, particularly working capital. What we have seen as the primary driver is a displacement of the working capital outflows that we expected in 2022 into 2023. Primarily, that relates to the Mero 3 project in Brazil and Marjan 2 project in Saudi Arabia. I can assure you that management and everyone in Subsea 7 is very focused on improving working capital because we want to convert as much profitability in a period to cash as possible. In terms of your second question, yes, there has been an uptick in the non-Seaway 7 capital expenditure.

Partly that has to do with inflation, but more importantly, is to do with a number of strategic initiatives that we have ongoing within the organization. That could be the vessel hybridization of certain assets within the fleet. It's our commitment to digitalization as well as our investment in a new SAP system. That is contributing to a slightly higher underlying CapEx than you saw this year.

Haakon Amundsen
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Mark Wilson from Jefferies. Please ask your question.

Mark Wilson
Head of European Intergrated Oil and Gas Research, Jefferies

Okay. Good morning, gents. Good afternoon even. I'd just like to ask a second question on CapEx, please. That is the guidance for this year, unchanged at just over $400 million. Should we expect that CapEx to come through in Q4 at the delta versus what you spent? That's the first question. The second one, you mentioned how the working capital facility for Seaway 7 is gonna be repaid. Is that also something that will happen in Q4? Thank you.

Mark Foley
CFO, Subsea 7

Okay. Mark, we have some material discrete and cash CapEx payments in Q4. Our current view is that that cash will leave the organization. However, as you know, these items could slip into Q1. The guidance that we've given at the moment is our best view. However, some of that could slip into early next year. If we then move on to your second question, I would expect the working capital facility from Seaway 7 to be reduced over time. I wouldn't expect an immediate readjustment in quarter four. Some of that will drift into 2023.

Mark Wilson
Head of European Intergrated Oil and Gas Research, Jefferies

All right. Thank you. Maybe then on the CapEx point, if that could slip, 'cause it stayed very consistent all through the year, but you've only spent less than half of it. Maybe you could just say how much of the spend so far this year of CapEx has been renewables then?

Mark Foley
CFO, Subsea 7

Yeah. In terms of Q4, the majority of that will be renewables in terms of payments that we have for the Alfa Lift, and to a lesser extent, the Ventus. Those are the primary material items that I referred to some moments ago, Mark.

Mark Wilson
Head of European Intergrated Oil and Gas Research, Jefferies

All right. Thank you. I'll hand it over.

Katherine Tonks
Director of Investor Relations, Subsea 7

Can we just take one more question, please, operator? Thank you.

Operator

The question comes from the line of Joe Cherry from Bank of America. Please ask your question.

Joe Cherry
Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you, guys. I won't keep you waiting. All of my questions have been asked already. Thank you very much.

Mark Foley
CFO, Subsea 7

Thanks, Joe.

Joe Cherry
Analyst, Bank of America

Bye.

John Evans
CEO, Subsea 7

Okay. Well, thank you very much, everybody, for joining us on this call. Hopefully, we've been able to give you the answers to your various different questions. As ever, Katherine is available to support offline any other questions or comments you may have on Subsea 7. Thank you very much, and we look forward to talking to you about our Q4 results early in 2023. Thank you very much. All the best.

Mark Foley
CFO, Subsea 7

Thank you. Goodbye.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Speakers, please stand by.

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