Earnings Call: Q1 2021

May 12, 2021

Hello, and welcome to TDS Q1 twenty twenty one Earnings Release Call. Throughout this call, all participants will be in a listen only mode, and afterwards, there will be a question and answer session. And just to remind you that this conference call is being recorded. I am now pleased to present Christian Johan Samp, CEO. Please go ahead with your meeting. Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to this investor call. This is Christian Johan Samp, CEO of TGS, and I'm doing this call from our operational headquarter in Kyrgyzstan. With me from Oslo, I have our CFO, Fredrik Armentin and our EVP of Operations and New Energy Solutions, Jan Kuhlmetter. Before we start the Q and A session, let me just reemphasize the key message from our Q1 earnings release today. Net segment revenues amounted to $75,000,000 in Q1 of twenty twenty one, this compares to about $152,000,000 in Q1 of last year. Segment EBITDA was $51,000,000 versus $126,000,000 in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow was €84,000,000 in Q1, up from €1,000,000 in Q1 of last year. Including shareholder distribution of €19,000,000 the cash holding increased by $58,000,000 to $254,000,000 on the 03/31/2021. The solid financial position allowed TGS to maintain the quarterly dividend at $0.14 per share and continued share repurchase program with a remaining value of up to $17,000,000 In my opinion, there are three key takeaways from our Q1 earnings release. Number one, despite the substantial increase in the oil price over the past six months, exploration spending remains muted. Please have a look at Slide 16 in your package, and you will see that the correlations between oil price and seismic spending, which has historically been very strong, seems to be broken for now. Our clients are indicating that the strong cash flow will mainly be directed at dividends, share buybacks and deleveraging balance sheets. While we remain cautiously optimistic for a pickup in activity towards the end of the year, we expect our near term organic multicloud investment to be lower, partly due to use of supplier risk sharing and JVs in this challenging market. As a result, we continue to add high volumes of data to our library and generate strong cash flow but lower dollar investments. The second point I would like you to walk away with is our truly unique ability to generate cash in challenging markets. This quarter, we had a free cash flow of $84,000,000 And even after dividend and share buybacks, our cash balance grew to $254,000,000 This is an extremely satisfactory situation to be in, and it allows us to combine allocation of capital to our shareholders as well as looking at countercyclical M and A opportunities as well as M and A for diversification, which we announced this morning. And last but not least, I would like to spend a few minutes on our diversification strategy and our acquisition of 4T Offshore. The acquisition fits perfectly with our ambition to become the leading global provider of energy data and insights to support decision making processes across the energy value chain. Growing our business from data to insight and information has been a goal for PGS within our core business for many years. We've been looking at companies within oil and gas information and research such as IHS, WoodMac, etcetera, and been fascinated by their high proportion of recurring revenues and the trading multiples that are significantly higher than traditional service companies. Now we're making that move, but we do it in new markets, offshore wind. Not only can we use this acquisition as a building block for both organic and inorganic growth initiatives, but we can also transfer knowledge about business models, subscription models, etcetera, to our core businesses within oil and gas. I'm extremely excited about this, and it goes way longer than just adding a profitable company with single digit dollar revenue to our portfolio. This is actually a critical part of our strategy for the future. As a final remark, I have to repeat that we're fighting a very challenging market right now. However, we're delivering on our strategy, which means that we continue to make progress on acquiring new technologies to the market, both in acquisition and in processing. We're in the forefront of the digitization of our industry and excited about the opportunities coming out of it. Finally, we see great progress in the diversification strategy, and the acquisition of ForeSea is just one of many initiatives that you have either seen presented today or will be announced over the next few months. We cannot really do much about the market short term. Long term, however, we remain convinced that oil and gas will remain about half of the energy mix even in twenty years from now. You will still need to find more oil to satisfy this demand, and seismic is the only way to help you find it. I will now open up for questions and refer back to the operator who is facilitating. Thanks. Thank So that is zero one to register for a question. There would be a brief pause while questions are being registered. Please hold for the first question. Our first question comes from the line of Christopher Malarvakin from Carnegie. Please go ahead. Good morning and good afternoon. This is Christopher from Carnegie. In the prerecorded call, you there is two questions from me. You mentioned that you would contribute cash to PXGL, this new seismic vessel company being set up. Could you elaborate about how much cash you would contribute? And also the timing has this cash been paid already in the Q1 accounts? And the second question relates to carbon storage. On the prerecorded call, you mentioned that you had made sales in Q1 related to carbon storage. I assume it's a relatively small multiclient sales, but could you elaborate a bit on magnitude there and what you see in this market going forward? Many thanks. Thank you, Christopher. Yes, so the contribution to PFG, which is a combination of cash and a vessel commitment, and obviously, they go hand in hand. But I think I definitely don't want to say how much we're talking about. We're it's definitely less than $10,000,000 But I mean, the main cash is going through a commitment over twelve months over the next twenty four months. And obviously, then you can calculate yourself approximately how much that's going to be. There has been no cash payment to PFG yet. Second question is related to carbon storage and mentioned, but we already had a sale in Q1. We actually had sales last year, June, related to that. The sale that we made in Q1 is relatively insignificant, meaning it's somewhere between 1,000,000 and $2,000,000 And what do you see for this market going forward? There's been probably a lot of attention, especially in the North Sea Basin, regarding potential carbon storage opportunities. Yes. There's been opportunities in Norway and also great opportunities in The U. S. You've probably seen Exxon's press release of what they're doing in terms of new investments in carbon capture and storage. So we think this market will grow significantly going forward. It's probably going to be single digit dollars for this year. But in the future, you will see that this could be quite a sizable business for us. And finally, as you know, it's a key product to identify some of these storage opportunities. And then that will grow into the four d market for this as well. And TGS, obviously, has an ambition to be part of this, whether it's on the acquisition or processing side. It's definitely a market that we are looking very closely at, partly due to its great growth potential going forward. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Amy Wong from UBS. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning Christian. A couple of questions from me, please. Firstly, on the capital allocation, you continue to have to invest in multi clients and then now you're of course you want to jump start your new energy solutions business as well and you have shareholder returns as well. How should how is management thinking about the trade off between multi client investments versus more acquisition opportunities in the New Energy business? So just talk a little bit about that. And then the second question is a bit more boring, just a technical question. You're flagging that it looks like you will be eventually phasing out the segment reporting. So can you talk a little bit about what some of the concerns were from some of the regulators in terms of looking at two sets of accounts and kind of the time frame you're going to phase out the segment reporting? Yes. I'll touch on both those questions, Amy. So number one is in terms of capital allocation. And I think as you see in terms of our guidance for new investments, we see that the market is challenging. It's hard to get free funding for new projects. And if we can, and try to use risk sharing as much as we can, and we also partner with some of our peers in terms of reducing the overall exposure. So that obviously takes down the cash need for new investments, which is good in the market like this. M and A is always on the agenda. And I think M and A and organic growth opportunities will probably be prioritized rather than allocating funds to shareholders. We see some interesting M and A opportunities. We announced one today. There's a few others within the new energy space. And we also have been very clear that part of our strategy is to consolidate the core market. So there are still opportunities within the core market that we are reviewing very closely and looking at. So I think you will see a combination of all of them. I think our dividend hopefully stays where it is, and there is even growth potential in the dividend. We have announced a share buyback program where we've only spent less than $3,000,000 and there's still another 17,000,000 to spend. Our investments are going to be lower this year, which means our cash flow hopefully is going to get better, and that allows us to actually spend money on both M and A and share buybacks and dividends. So I'm not sure if that answered your question, but I mean the good situation right now is that we can actually do all. And so we definitely will prioritize to grow our business. That really important to us. If we had good investment opportunities in MultiClient, we would do that. But right now, it seems like those opportunities are still a few months or quarters ahead of us. On your second question, segment revenues versus IFRS, yes, I think everyone on the call will understand why we're making this progression towards IFRS only. We're basically reporting two sets of accounts today. It puts a big, big burden on our financial team and accounting team because they basically need to produce two sets of accounts. And I think over the next few quarters, you will see that we'll gradually move away from the segment reporting. We will our target is that we're only going to have IFRS for next year. So we are going to provide you with key figures that are still relevant to how we look at the segment today. So I mean, you're probably going to get what you need, but it's going to be slightly different to what it is today. And I hope you all understand that. I mean, this has been controlled by regulators. This is something that we cannot decide this ourselves. We just need to follow the guidelines of IFRS and finance authorities in Norway. So that's how it is. Got you. Maybe a quick follow-up on the 4C Offshore. Clearly, there's no financial disclosures in this morning's release, but you mentioned that single digit millions in terms of kind of the revenue at the moment. In terms of the acquisition price, can you give some guidance on that where it came out? We haven't disclosed that. And I think eventually you will see that as part of our cash flow. It's a model where there is some sharing of risk as part of it. And I think obviously it's higher multiples than you traditionally see in seismic because it's such a high proportion of of subscription revenues. But we're very pleased. We're I mean, it's a profitable company, very profitable company. And we think we can we can grow it significantly, and we can probably grow the profitability too. So we're we're extremely excited about that and think it's a it's a win win. It's a good deal for both parties, and we're very, very pleased with that. Alright. Thank you very much. I remind you that if you want to ask a question, you will have to press 01 on your telephone keypad now. We have a question from the line of John Alison from ABG. Please go ahead. Yeah. Good morning. Good afternoon. A couple of questions. First, on the seismic market. Now most of the seismic companies have reported q one, and it was very optimistic reading the the numbers or the outlook comments. Christian, at the Q4 presentation, you said that the market is likely to be new to the first half, but especially increasing improving somewhat in the second half. Now you say towards the end of the year. And also that slide you showed with the seismic spending versus the oil price and the rest correlations into the broken. I just wondered And how much of how much of it because all the time it's come up sharply, but it came I think it always seems like November. What do your clients tell you? Because I know that the guys buy the seismic. The explanations are they always want more seismic. But they're constrained with the allocation of capital that they're getting from the from the management in the in the oil company. I just wanted to look at what do the the exploration guys in oil companies tell you? Do do they tell you that they want more by more seismic, but they haven't got the funds for the hope to get the next year? Should they shed any light on what the like the clients are telling you, do think? Yes. I guess the initial response to that question is that there is hardly anyone left. And that describes how challenging the situation is. I mean, there's lot of and reorganization and and mainly among the super major and international coal companies where exploration finds a new home. You know, it it merged with with subsurface departments or or or it's pushed down further in the organization. So that's obviously a big concern right now is that some of the people that we used to deal with, they they don't know what they're gonna fit in the new organization. And this goes with a lot of companies still going to restructurings right now. I think that's part of the reason why you see that IOCs and super majors are particularly low in terms of spending. It's at a very late cyclical. You know, I I spoke to one IOC here in Houston just a few days ago, and they're they're doing a restructuring and getting new jobs in August. And by August, the old part could be 85. Right? So so it's it's very late. Those processes take a very long time. So I mean, the people we talked to, they I mean, on the exploration side, they definitely feel the pressure. They definitely feel the competition from some of the renewable activities because they go they kind of follow the same timeline, right? If could do exploration today, you do it because you're going to be in production in ten or fifteen years, and then you compete in the same timeline for the renewable investment. And that's partly the answer. So, I mean, yes, they want more data because more data is gonna keep them busy, and it's gonna keep their jobs. Right? So they definitely want more data. But right now, I think for 02/2021, I think it's gonna be very challenging to to get those extra dollars out of out of this category of clients. Mhmm. But then I'm I'm getting probably slightly more optimistic on the smaller independents. You know, we had one one quote in our presentation today, which says our board has mandated us to get ready for another super cycle. That's a statement that was actually made in a meeting with with PGS. And and and some of those statements, you tend to hear them more frequently now than you did three or four months ago. So that's that's it. In terms of what I said at q four and what we're saying today, yeah, I would agree that we're slightly more muted in terms of our expectation and and the timing of the recovery because we have q one behind us that is for the industry extremely challenging. I can give you one example. If you take that, the three key asset light players other than PGS and you combine the revenues for q one, they're pretty much at the same level as we have. And we have that of low revenue. So it's it's it's really dramatic to to look at the q one numbers for the asset light there. And I don't think q one, Q2 is going to get much better. I think Q2 is still going to be we're to fight the same issues in Q2 that all companies still haven't made plans that correspond to the higher oil price. And then towards the end of the year, I will stick to that. I think the budget for next year will be higher, if not significantly higher. And hopefully, some of these companies can start spending from that in Q4. Did that answer your question, John? It sure did. Thank you. Just following up on that, since the old companies are reorganizing, they're focusing on all the things And a few are trying to get position for the next super cycle and and and as you mentioned. At the Capital Markets Day, you guys also mentioned that you could potentially take more direct ownership and expiration licenses to, like, explore the situation now with all the companies that want to do that. Mhmm. Is there any progress to that? Or or mhmm. It it definitely is. So we've had meetings with somewhere between five and ten players who operate in certain countries in Africa where we see there is no demand right now, and we wouldn't really compete with our key clients because that's a key concern, of course. And we're definitely making progress in that regard. And we will obviously come back and talk more about that when we have when we can quantify some of that progress. Okay. My only question is on the new initiatives. Earlier, you announced the policy acquisition. But as you already said, it's a fairly small portion of you. But you also mentioned you have a looking at a few more business acquisitions. I mean, in that portfolio companies are looking at the moment, are there any that could be more material with more impact on on C and D as we Or is it the nature of the impact for the ForeSea acquisition? I think the ForeSea acquisition is probably the should be the benchmark of what you could expect. I think it's a perfect size. It's about 30 people. It has, as I said, revenues in the the single digit, but it's growing very fast. It's subscription based. And, you know, I I think I think that size is definitely doable for us in terms of we we wanna do this like as a buy and build rather than just making one big acquisition that is going to completely change PGS. And that also has to do with the multiples that you tend to pay for some of these companies. You probably saw one company that was sold in Norway this week. Look at those multiples, and it's something that GDS couldn't do based on our pricing in the stock market. And so I think you should expect to see the same type of size. But don't forget, we're still very convinced that we need to consolidate the seismic market as well. And there are still opportunities out there and we will actively pursue them and that's probably going to be bigger in terms of dollar figures. We have a follow-up question from the line of Christopher Mullovakin from Carnegie. Yes. You mentioned that the projects done in first quarter were both risk share investments. Could you just remind us on the accounting here? Because previously, I I remember that TGS has a separate line where risk sharing investment was split out on the MultiClient investments. Can we assume now that this is part of the organic MultiClient investments you're reporting of $37,000,000 in Q1? Yes. So it's part of that. But the way we capitalize that is that we only capitalize the part where we take risk. So if you work together with a vessel company who takes, let's say, 75% of the risk on their own cost, then obviously, we would only capitalize the remaining 25% plus the cost of processing. And just to be precise, the guidance you do have for 2021 includes risk share investments. So that would be part of the 50 to a 80 or the TGS part of the the project. Thank you. That's correct. There are no further questions registered. So I hand back to the speakers. All right. With no further questions, I would like to thank you for the attention. I would hope that we can see each other in person later this summer or early this fall. And looking forward to meet you again on either road shows or quarterly presentations or conferences this summer or fall. So with that, thank you very much for the attention and have a great day. Thanks.