Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Meyer Burger Technology AG Conference Call One. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. The floor will be open for questions following the presentation. Let me now turn the floor over to your host, CEO, Gunter Erfurt.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, to this business update webcast on the occasion of our today's ad hoc press release on the preliminary numbers of Meyer Burger and our strategy moving forward. I would like to give you a very short and crisp and clear outline of what we have communicated and the details behind it, and of course, I'm happy to answer all of your questions. So what we communicated today are preliminary key figures of 2023. We are, just to begin with, not at all satisfied or happy with the numbers, clearly not. We have missed our target in 2023. Nevertheless, let me go through the key facts and also the underlying reasons for the performance.
We have, in the last year, been able to implement our approximately 1.4 GW of cell and module nameplate capacity in Freiberg and in Thalheim for the module and the cell, respectively, both factories in Germany. So this part of the project was successfully completed, and unlike in the previous years, where we were facing some technical problems, here and there, some project execution problems, I can say that the implementation and also the ramp-up, at least to the extent we were able to do it, has been going very smoothly. We could take out the risks via the lessons learned from the initial ramp-up, which is a very good prerequisite, of course, also for our ambitions in the U.S., where the construction of the two GW of U.S. cell and module factories is on track.
We are planning the start of production in the module site in Goodyear, Arizona, in the second quarter of 2024, delivering product immediately and directly to our offtake partner, DESRI, who's first on the list, has signed as first offtake on the-- receive the first product from us starting in the second quarter. The situation in Europe that I will talk about in a second has led to way too low net sales in last year, with only CHF 135 million. The EBITDA losses are accounting to CHF -126 million. And what they do reflect, of course, on the one hand, is the not full utilization of our factories, given the market conditions, but also initial write down of inventories in Europe.
But also what is part of it is one-offs from the ramp-up that we did in H1, and this has led to this negative results. Our cash position stood at CHF 150 million as of end of year. And as we are on the situation with our EBITDA result, and of course, also with the high inventory levels, we are very actively are pursuing additional financing options, opportunities which are on the table and possibly to be secured, and I will speak to them in a second.
We have, of course, given our financial results, on the one hand, the urgent requirement for policy support in Europe, as we are not dealing or operating in a level playing field environment, at least not in Europe. If they are not coming, we have today made it crystal clear, and this is not a threatening towards politicians, this is just reflecting reality. We will definitely restructure our European manufacturing base. Unfortunately, I have to say, and focus entirely for the time being on the U.S. business. So what has happened that has led to this operational result, but also is driving our strategic approaches in regards to how do we continue in Europe and what is happening in the U.S.?
In Europe, and this is not a secret, very obvious, we have seen unprecedented behaviors of Chinese competitors in the market. Europe is an entirely unregulated market that is not doing anything so far for enabling a level playing field in regards to anti-competitive practices of Chinese players. We have, on the one hand, seen a very good growth of the end market in Europe with moving from 42 gigawatt installations, end market installations in 2022 to approximately 55 gigawatt in 2023, which is quite a good increase as expected.
But nevertheless, given the fact that both the U.S. and India have imposed even more restrictions on the trade side towards Chinese companies, they have pretty much Europe as the place where product can be dumped into, also helping their oversupply situation. Chinese manufacturing is operating with 40% overcapacity, a number as high as never before. There has always been overcapacity in the market, but never at this level. This has to do, again, with the measures in place in other regions, such as India and the U.S. . Both countries are currently working on a very active reshoring of the solar industry, given the fact that I do definitely argue that a solar module is not a commodity product by definition.
It is strategic energy infrastructure, and it is absolutely wise or wisely done by India and the U.S. to put so much emphasis on favorable industry policies in order to make sure that the industry is coming back. And Europe is lagging behind and has not yet implemented it, despite the fact that, as you know, Meyer Burger has been very, very vocal in the industry with strong support from many industry players, but also parts of politics. And now we have a situation where still against the expectation of having this in place by years, and we don't have it yet. So the ability of Meyer Burger to continue executing on our Europe strategy is highly depending on these measures to be taken immediately.
And I'm saying that, saying that and re-emphasizing it, of course, there's no company on the planet that is doing every step they take, most precisely and most effectively. Of course, also, companies do make mistakes here and there, but the problem that we are facing in Europe is a political problem, and only politicians can resolve it. And if they don't resolve it, then companies need to take actions, and this is what we have announced today, that we are ready to do so in the absence of, a materialization of, government support schemes, first in Germany and of course, also later in the entire European Union. So moving on to the better place on the planet, which is the U.S. for Meyer Burger.
I am very, very happy and, believe even more that our very early decision, already two years ago, when Meyer Burger decided before the IRA was implemented, to move to the U.S. with our, securing of the Goodyear facility and, then, working on offtake agreements, first with DESRI and later with Ingka and BayWa, has been the right move. When you look at the projections of the, Solar Energy Industry Association, SEIA, in the U.S., what we can see, post-IRA implementation is a strong growth expected in the market.
From our early assessment two years ago, when we concluded and finally decided that Meyer Burger's options are very, very good in the utility space, which was initially questioned by many, many market players and observers, because we are a small company and the narrative has always been that we would be focusing on the residential market only. What you see here is clearly that the growth in the U.S. is in utility, and also the residential and C&I markets are gonna grow, and Meyer Burger has the ability to address all three segments, and this is definitely what we are planning to do and what we are currently entertaining. The 2-gigawatt module facility in Goodyear, Arizona, is on track as of today.
We are expecting the start of production in the second quarter, 2024. So in a couple of months, we will do the grand opening or inauguration ceremony in Colorado Springs. Already in the planning. We will finally employ about 500 people. We do hire them in a stepwise approach. We don't need them all at the same time or at the beginning, but we will hire them and bring them on as we are growing our capacities. So the production equipment is moving in as we speak, and we are installing three lines. There are two with 700 MW capacity each for utility product, and one with 600 MW, a little below, for smaller module size for residential and C&I.
So the total number produced, once fully loaded, is about 10,000 modules per day. And most of it is offtaken, firmly offtaken by the three parties that I already named. In aggregate and in the long run until 2030, this is the duration of some of the contracts that we have signed, is including options these customers have around 6.3 gigawatts of firmly offtaken capacity. The Colorado Springs facility, we have announced in July 2024, and also this has been a very early step of Meyer Burger, a very quick response to the setup in the U.S. on the political side and on the...
In the absence at that time, or as well, of any measures in Europe. As you know, we have switched our plans from installing the additional two GW of cell manufacturing in the Solar Valley in Germany. We have decided to move it to Colorado Springs. The building we have secured can take up the two GW offshore of equipment, but we have even some headroom in the total capacity and can install more capacity in this building. We expect the start of production around year-end. We have had a later start, of course, with the switch in plans in mid-summer of last year. Total employed people will be around 350.
Same thing here, we will not hire them at once, but, do this very wisely in a cost-saving manner and bring them on as we need them, during the ramp-up, and, the volume is going to be 1.4 million solar cells per day. Speaking about a potential restructuring or downsizing of our German operations. It is not a secret that of course, this is a decision that we want to avoid, but what I can also clearly, address again, is Meyer Burger won't continue on the principles of hope. So hope is not a strategy.
We have a strong and great opportunity on the other side of the pond, and as sad and unfortunate it is to close something that is state-of-the-art technology that was just recently inaugurated, where we have people who have been fighting for the success of the company and still do. To close it down is a tragedy. It's a political tragedy, but if we are forced to do so, we will do. So what do the steps of downsizing contain in our plan? We are ready to close the Freiberg module facility, and since this is owned property, options we are having with the assets is number one.
This even as, as sad as it sounds for Germany, it provides a perfect opportunity for faster growth in the U.S. because the equipment is paid, it's in use, it's state-of-the-art, and it can be reused on the other side of the pond. So, we can, we can assume this to be an option. If we, if we were not growing further in the U.S. as another scenario, then we would have the option of selling the assets. As a step two, the Bitterfeld cell facility is continued, not affected by a potential decision of closure in order to support the U.S. ramp-up. I already explained that our Colorado Springs facility is coming or starting production later than the module factory, given the project plans and project durations and the project starts.
We will supply the site with solar cells made in Germany from our state-of-the-art solar cell capacity in Bitterfeld-Wolfen. We're currently doing all the preparations to do so. We have a different wafer format to be used in Colorado Springs, in Goodyear, and we are currently converting our lines in the cell factory in order to be able to supply this. Also, the supply chain side is secured, so we have taken all measures to not put the U.S. ramp-up at risk. Maybe a word on, again, on Freiberg, since I talked about materials.
What we have decided, already early enough when we were seeing that we have no resilience or supportive schemes in place, we decided to slow down the material inflow for the Freiberg module facility in order to be pretty much, if I may say so, just on time with the materials, and to make sure that in the event of a closure of the site, that we would not sit on inventories for module manufacturing. We are sitting on inventories of finished goods. That's a different story. I will come to that in a second. On the material side, we have no leftovers or inventory that needs to be impaired, at least not that it has a material effect.
The potential cost, which are associated with a potential closure of the Freiberg site, do contain a potential repay of subsidies we have received. But the amount of subsidies for the Freiberg facility has been small, with only CHF 3.5 million in aggregate, and we are currently assessing if that would have to be repaid in full or only partly. We have, of course, a remaining debt facility to be repaid. You may remember that Meyer Burger secured a debt financing of CHF 125 million in 2021, which we have continuously repaid over the last years, and we have another close to CHF 70 million to be prepaid from that facility.
And the sizing of the workforce would look like that we are retaining critical people, in particular, people that can support the ramp-up in the U.S., including a few blue-collar people, but primarily also technology people and supply chain managers, and these type of roles. We have already today started talks with these people to make sure that we are not losing talents, and that we can bring experience from Germany to the U.S., helping to ramp up over there. For the workforce remaining, that would have to be laid off. The good news about the bad news, if I may say so here, is that on the German labor law, you need to pay severance.
But the law defines that per year of someone being with the company, you pay a monthly pay. And remember that the workforce was hired also stepwise, so the majority of the people has joined us in 2022, late 2022. And so in other words, the expected severance pay is very, very low. It's in the very lower seven-digit EUR amounts. So this is not a real cost item. Long story short, we are of the opinion and convinced that any downsizing costs will be self-funded. And why? Because we are having the inventory levels. The inventory levels we have in the warehouse globally, with the majority, of course, in Germany, in Europe, is around 360 megawatts.
And we have also not decided to fire sale or fire sell our inventories in light of the Chinese dumping activities in Europe, that would have damaged or destroyed value. So we decided we keep prices at higher levels, at premium levels. And what I can also report is that our installers that we have onboarded in Europe, they are still continuously selling modules of Meyer Burger to customers. Some installers are selling 100% only Meyer Burger, making customers very happy. And we expect that this will be continued. Also, our sales force is continuing their efforts because we have not today announced that we will file insolvency or something like this.
We have said we are downsizing and we will continuing business, and Meyer Burger is still around and active and even more than ever, and that we can also continue with our warranties and anything that is of concern a customer. So if we had to downsize and to restructure, what we are not touching, because this is ultimately important and absolutely required, and the strong pillar of the company is our European R&D in Switzerland and in Europe, and that's gonna be kept and even grown to tackle the challenges of the future. Our R&D team is doing very, very good, has also delivered on the roadmap.
Last year, we are pretty much advanced with our next step technology, IBC, where we have ticked all boxes that we had to tick according to the project plan. So this technology is almost ready to go, with a lot of headroom in terms of the efficiency, low on degradation, and this is, of course, very, very important for our U.S. business and of course, if Europe was to be continued as well, there. So what we have explained today in our press release is that we are working on a potential transition into a hybrid captive business model. What do we mean by this?
It's meant to accelerate using our technology still on an exclusive basis, but in teaming up with industrial partners, potentially in different regions of the world. Of course, clearly, for the time being, the opportunity is across the pond in the U.S. So we are working there on these potential partnerships, which have an industrial background. We believe that working together with a strong partner is gonna help Meyer Burger's sustainable growth and the business model. We may entertain an option that, within this hybrid captive business model and in teaming up with industrial partners, that Meyer Burger could benefit from generating a license income from its technology without giving the technology away.
So the core of the captive business model is exactly still the same. So outside of this extended partnership or of these partnerships, nobody would have access to this technology. And Meyer Burger, also very important, is retaining ownership, and of course, this is the basis for generating a licensing income. What I'm not saying is that Meyer Burger is departing from being a cell and module manufacturer, not at all. But in a market environment where growth is an option, and on the other hand, the caveat of any solar cell and module manufacturing is the front-loaded CapEx.
We believe it can make a lot of sense to have, on the one hand, as one part of the income streams, a de-risked and light asset model with the licensing, and on the other hand, of course, still having skin in the game also when it comes to manufacturing. And any of the partners that we are currently discussing with a strong support of a globally renowned investment bank would have a strong interest in Meyer Burger continuing its efforts in manufacturing, also as a technology owner. Without us, it doesn't work. We do expect a midterm EBITDA result of $250 million from the business in the U.S. And this midterm EBITDA expectation does include the downsizing of Europe.
So we are not, in that model, not assuming that Europe is to be continued. So this is assuming here in this guidance that we would have to restructure Europe, that we would stop building modules in Europe and focus for the time being on the U.S. . So the key takeaways before we come to your questions and my answers. The lower revenue and of course result in 2023 was caused by the severe market distortions and the price war in Europe. Maybe one important item here to mention for you to better understand it, in the residential space where we are most active, I said that we are selling products and continue to do.
Prices, installer demand, are currently in a range of between EUR 2.50 and EUR 3.50 per Wp for a full installation, including solar modules, inverters and storage. Meyer Burger can definitely compete with these prices because the solar modules, as we have always explained, is the minor part of the installation. So if you are using in a 10-kWp installation, that's being sold at EUR 2.50 up to EUR 3.50 per Wp.
If you're using a Chinese product that you in this market segment can buy potentially at a level of maybe EUR 0.20-0.25 nowadays per watt peak, and the Meyer Burger module of 40 cents per watt peak, we talk about EUR 1,500 or EUR 2,000 price difference in a total project price of EUR 25,000 or even EUR 35,000 . So it is actually minor. So that is also the reason why we are able to sell not at the level we want to. The reasoning here is, of course, that there has also been a pretty unhealthy margin shift towards installers which of course can use the ultra-low prices of the Chinese in order to generate higher margins for their business.
The end customer in Europe and also in the U.S. does not necessarily see any effects from lower market prices in Europe. So this, I'm saying, because in the event of resilience measures in Europe, our tactic would be not to increase prices necessarily. If we can, of course, we do, but our prices are at a healthy level if we were able to sell higher volumes, and we believe with the resilience option, volumes could go up. But again, in the absence of these measures, Europe is not an option anymore. So that's why as a number two, we had to take measures or start a plan how to downsize because of the protection of the business.
And, we cannot watch and continue the loss-making situation in Europe and have to act immediately. That's why we came up with this timeline. Again, to recap, we have not yet decided to do it, but we will definitely do by second half of February if no resilience measures are in place. And, coincidentally, yesterday, we received the communications from the German Parliament about their schedule planning, and the planning looks like that the so-called Solar Package I, that could contain these resilience measures, is on the agenda for the final decision on February 21st. So it's coming up shortly, and it is happening exactly during the time frame we are expecting to take our final decision on Europe.
The U.S. plan as number three key takeaway is, or the prospects for Meyer Burger are still intact, even more than they have ever been. Given the fact that when we entertained our new model four years ago, we were once described as a PowerPoint company, so we just had a vision and needed to execute. Now, we have executed, we have proven that we can build factories, we have proven that we can sell, we have proven that we have a product that is meeting customers' requirements. Of course, not in a highly toxic environment like in Europe, under these conditions, but in the U.S., under the favorable industry policies there, it's definitely working. And we have a strong case for existing investors, but also, of course, for new strategic partners....
The U.S. growth will provide us, of course, also the funding and the attractive opportunities for our European sites, which are key and of material essence to keep our technology advantages for the company and even strengthen them and enriching technologies. So, the sales activities in the U.S. would definitely fund the European activities in order to serve manufacturing over there. So the downsizing, again, we need to do this quickly if we have to, in order to not affect the whole company. And we will report the final numbers of 2023 in our media call and press releases in March 14th .
A word about the funding that we have communicated or the additional funding sources we have communicated in our press release today. As it is known to the market, we talked about it already last year, we are currently pursuing three avenues on the debt side. Number one is a debt facility, an export finance facility that will be credit insured by Euler Hermes in Germany. We are talking about an amount of around CHF 100 million. This project looks very likely to be achieved. We are in advanced discussions with the German Ministry, Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, BMWK. That's exactly the same address that is dealing with the resilience topic, and we are currently receiving strong support from them.
In the current situation that we are finding ourselves, this is very important, and we are convinced that we can secure this funding very shortly. The second avenue on the debt side is partly monetization of our manufacturing advanced manufacturing tax credits, 45X in the U.S. We are also working with a financial company to provide us this facility if we have to. It is not the cheapest, I have to say, but it is definitely accessible, so we are currently also in the process that can lead us to success here. The amount is, I would say, flexible, of course, not unlimited, but flexible, but of course, we want to limit it to levels needed.
Also, here we may talk about $100 million. For the Department of Energy loan that we are working on, we have submitted all documents. We have passed the very important milestones already. We are in very, very deep and thorough discussions with the Department of Energy and are working through it. Also, this funding source is very likely to happen. Interesting here is that number one, interest rates are very favorable, given the U.S. market, somewhere between 4%-5%. All these facilities, both the DOE, but also the export financing, can have a very long term.
And the amount that we are currently looking into is a figure around $200 million that we are working on with the Department of Energy. So again, very, very likely that we can access these sources of funding. Nevertheless, the challenge here is, of course, the timing. They all not need to fall in place at the right time, and this is a reason and also an existing gap we are still having. Also, according to the numbers that we presented today, the board is considering an equity measure as well. But the size that we are talking about here clearly is not representing the $450 million of funding needs, but a number that is definitely not exceeding or not definitely not exceeding, but around $200 million size.
So, but not yet finally decided, but, an option we are considering. When we talk about the new strategic partners that we are currently in talks with, we do also consider this to be covered partly by a private placement. But this is now part of the process, and we will keep you updated as soon as we have news on it. So with this, I would like to close this presentation. I'm hoping that I could give you some insights. Also, apologize for having broken the silence only today. But we had to consider all activities and all responses to the very, very challenging situation in Europe.
I'm strongly convinced we have a very good plan here, given the fact that we have this visibility in the U.S., given the fact that we have firm take-or-pay offtake agreements, given the fact that the U.S. manufacturing is being endorsed by ITC tax credits our customers receive for local content, including solar cell. And as you know, there are not so many people that are able to build solar cell factories. No, no Western player other than us. And we believe that this also provides all options for further growth. Thank you very much, and happy to take your questions.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. So if you would like to ask a question using your telephone, please press nine, followed by the star key on your keypad. If you wish to cancel your question again, please press nine, followed by the star key again. So please press nine star now to state your question. So the first question comes from Sebastian Growe from BNP Paribas.
Be a bit backward-looking. It's on the EBITDA for the year 2023, or more particular, for the second half of the year. If you could help us with better understanding the bridge behind the CHF 80 million loss in the second half. So how much is really related to underutilization? How much is coming from impairments on, on components, on products and, stuff like that? And then also the ramp-up costs, if you could put a number behind it. So I do recall that you had in the first half of the year, about a CHF 10 million ramp-up expense, so maybe you could update that number then for the second half of the year. May we start there, and I would have further questions on the footprint, and I also would be interested in your current views on the current trading.
Yeah. Yeah. So, thank you for the question, Sebastian. So you do understand that we are still in the finalization of the numbers, so it's not yet fully complete. So that's why I would only like to give some indications here. So what we have to take into consideration is that the majority of the EBITDA loss was generated by the underutilization of the lines, given the fact that we had the resources in place for running higher capacities and of course, also selling more. We have partially had to impair on the material side, so incoming material and on the finished goods. So the detailed splits is going to be provided with our full report in March 2024.
We are not yet completely done with it, but clearly the effects are structured like this. The under absorption and then the impairments on material and modules.
Okay, understood. If we then move on to the footprint, you said obviously that you would expect, at least that's what I read between the lines, the decision on the resilience bonus scheme in Germany for the second half of February. What outcome is required really, to not close that Freiberg plant? So obviously there have been multiple papers in the public, as to what the exact support level could be, at least based on what the German Sector Association for Solar Industry had in mind. So if you could walk us through what is sort of the binding conditions for you to kind of stay in Germany and to not move production overseas?
Yep. So first of all, what's not happening, definitely not, is that we may have, you know, a perceived victory on the February 21st because of a, you know, plenary vote in the Bundestag in Germany that simply says we have resilience and now my work can stay. We have to then carefully review what's in there to make sure that it provides us the level playing field and simply the business case and also the growing concern for the European operations. I have and I think you all do understand, I do not want to speculate. We have not been correct with speculations in the last year, so we have just to wait and see what they are coming up with.
What I do know though is, there has been an external assessment done by a third party, at let's call it a neutral third party, about or on the proposals that the German Solar Industry Association has put forward, which included this stepwise or these different supply chain or value add steps with silicon wafer, cell, module, inverter, and solar glass, and has put numbers behind. What's most attractive there is solar cell and solar module, no surprise, but also inverters and the others can contribute. The total amount in that proposal that you can achieve is some around EUR 0.035 per kWh for the bonus for residential systems and up to EUR 0.027 per kWh for utility maximum.
What we know is that this assessment has been very positive. So what they essentially did is they just confirmed towards the BMWK in Germany, the ministry, that the price gap analysis that is underlying of the analysis by the German Solar Industry Association is correct, which is good, because one might have guessed that they do something simply in favor of the industry and over, overshoot. It's not true, it fits. And we know that the people inside the government are leaning towards the proposal of the Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, the German Solar Energy Industry Association.
So we, you know, if we are very fortunate, let's put it this way, then we have it all in the budget and get it done to support the resilience scheme. The second thing I can mention is that after this very, very unfortunate and, in particular on the timing side, situation in the German government, once they got sued successfully by the opposition over the budget technicalities. What I can report is that the lighthouse projects in Europe, well, in Germany, they have survived the haircut. They are still there. They are lower, 50%, which means either 100% funding for five gigawatts or 50% for 10, which still would be good.
This is also still possible. Again, you know, let's wait and see what they are coming up with. The budget is gonna be confirmed either this week or next week, and then we have the confirmation that this is done, and then we need to wait for any resilience measures. Maybe a word about the EU. The EU is still on track with the NZIA to be adopted finally in the first quarter of this year. And we do also hear voices here and there which are supportive of other trade measures. But you know, maybe as a summary, again, I don't wanna, I don't wanna project the future of this company on the principles of hope. This is not, this is not management.
We have been hopeful a lot in the last year, and I think the time has simply run up. We are just trusting facts and figures. If they make sense for a business case in Europe, then we will continue. If they don't, then we won't, and decision to be taken by the second half of February.
That's actually a good segue to that market where you have more facts and figures. So let's move on to the U.S. And the potential that you have put at around $150 million, but pretty thick. Can you help us better understand what the related output and megawatt behind that? And would this then ultimately assume that you would have both local cell and module production in U.S.?
Yes, it would assume, starting with the latter part of your question, would assume cell and module in the U.S. And also taking full benefit of the IRA scheme with the $0.04 for the cell. In addition, plus also ITC tax credits for our customers, for the local content, potentially resulting in higher ASPs. And the megawatt numbers or the exact split, I'm not disclosing here, but if you assume the two gigawatts up and running by then, fully ramped, the majority comes from the utility. So we would have two fully loaded lines for utility, 1.4 gigawatts, and the residential also loaded to a large degree.
Okay. Sounds materially better than the 25% margin you had online before. I would like to finish off on the current trading that I mentioned before. So obviously, it was a really tough H2 2023. Can you just tell us if you see any sort of rays of hope when it comes to restocking, or is this market still massively bombarded with a tremendous overcapacity and also inventory overhang, or how should we think about that?
Yeah. So, we currently still see, and the difficulty is that the numbers are—there's no real system for import/export numbers, neither out of China nor into the EU for solar panels, so these are all guesses on whatever basis. There was a report that I read yesterday by Bank of America, suggesting that still there's 60-80 gigawatts of inventory in Europe, in Europe's warehouses. The exact split of utility, resi, C&I is unknown, so nobody knows this. What I can say, though, is in our case, you know, I said we have been continuously, in the last year, selling to end customers via our installers, and they purchase product from the distributors to whom we are selling the product.
We expect this outflow of product to be continued, you know, simply because of the fact, again, Meyer Burger is still around. There is no change in how we are dealing with warranties, how we are dealing with customers, so we have good reason to believe that we can continue selling off the volume. And what we know from our customers, the distributors, is they are outflow data to their customers, and they are running dry on inventory. So there is an expectation that the distributors are gonna replenish also with Meyer Burger panels, which gives us the foundation for our assessment that we can sell it off.
In case of a downsizing of Europe, we have the option of self-funding restructuring costs and also repaying the syndicated loan with this Ostdeutsche Sparkasse consortium in Germany. So yeah, that's maybe the broader view and then the micro view of Meyer Burger, how this is gonna continue. Okay, that's very helpful. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from Constantin Hesse, Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I would like to start first with the potential resilience bonus implementation. If it is in the text on the twenty-first of February, and I think there was a date as well for the second chamber, the Bundesrat, on the March 22nd, and it gets approved, when does that get implemented, and when could you expect distributors to start ordering product from you?
Yeah. So thank you, Constantin, for the question. So number one, this law does not require consent of the second chamber. It just needs a kind of a formal approval. So there is no risk that the Bundesrat, the second chamber, would not approve it. I think that's important. That being said, if the parliament, first chamber, votes in favor of the regulation in February, we will get it. In terms of the timing, the way it works, after the Bundesrat formal approval, it goes to the president, Mr. Steinmeier in Germany, he's signing off, and then it's gonna be implemented. Very likely, that's my expectation, effective April 1st. That being said, if it's being approved by the Parliament in February, we will very likely see customers moving.
It would have a brilliant effect, of course, on our inventories. And, of course, also on the planning for a potential continuation. Meyer Burger would have to... Not would have, we have planned it anyways, to switch product. So the product we are currently producing is gonna fade out, you know, together with the potential decision to close it, which is our M6 product. We will introduce an M10 product in the U.S. for sure, and, you know, if we have a chance in Europe as well. And this is then going to be introduced from, you know, April onwards. Of course, what's imposing another challenge, once you stop a line, then you need to restart it.
So that's an effort, but I think wouldn't be a showstopper. But the message is we would start with a new product, but sell off the inventories in the first place. So my expectation, if this is coming, if it's in favor, if it provides a business case, then we will see distributors moving, very likely already in February.
That is interesting. Thank you. And, just to understand then, I mean, this waiting time now until February, I mean, how are operations running? I mean, obviously, you're trying to sell, you know, as much as you can. I kinda get that. But in terms of producing, are your lines now in complete standstill, or are you going to continue producing?
We continue producing for a very simple reason. An industrial place like such a factory, you cannot switch off and on like a dishwasher. You have resources in place, both people and material, which is either paid up already or which you have to pay also for contractual reasons. I cannot, you know, lay off my people today and hire them back tomorrow. They are on the payroll anyways. So we have a cost base, which is there, which is unavoidable, and either you shut down and then you get rid of it or you have it. So the rationale here has always been, also in the absence of any measures and in the, you know, in light of the transparency, is coming, is it not coming? Shall we be ready? Shall we not be ready?
We have purposefully last year decided, let's continue operating the line. We also were working on several larger projects outside of Europe, which did not come to fruition for various reasons. And the ongoing operations, right now, we are running not fully loaded, definitely not. So our line C is not in operation, but we are running our line A and B with very high yields. We have actually very good operational numbers now. That would be another pity to shut it down. We have achieved targets, but we would continue running until the end, until you know, March timeframe, and then shut it down.
Understood. And then I think this is probably-
Maybe, Constantin, one thing I forgot.
Yeah.
You have the people on the payroll that you cannot simply, you know, wipe out. And the other thing is, in a module manufacturing, material you need, there are materials which have to be best before, you know, a certain date. And if you do not use them, you throw them away. You really destroy value. And so we have decided, let's basically conserve the value of our operations in the inventory levels, because you can still do something with it. If you don't produce—you know, sooner or later, you throw away encapsulating materials, other stuff, and silicone and stuff. And so that's why we decided, let's make sure we take most benefit out of things that are paid anyway.
That makes sense. Understood. Probably the most important question here in my bunch is, I'm trying to have a better understanding, balance sheet, cash, timing. So for the-- you just mentioned a number that, you know, would be pretty brutal, I guess, in terms of cap raise, CHF 200 million. That's almost a, well, almost a 100% on your market cap today. On the-- So just in terms of timing. So, Euler Hermes loan agreement, in terms of timing, just when do you decide? When does your board say, "Okay, we have to go ahead with an equity raise because we simply cannot wait any longer?" I'm just trying to get a really good feel for timing, because obviously this loan could potentially refrain you from having to go to market in equity form.
So, just talk to us a little bit in terms of the timing of these decisions, please.
Mm-hmm. So absolutely fair question. So in terms of the sequence, we are working on these debt facilities. As I said, the export financing via Euler Hermes securitization is very advanced discussions. So I remain very optimistic that we can secure it. I think the timing for a potential equity measure would be associated also with our current strategic talks we are having because there is potential upside also in the growth. And what we think is accretive and helpful, of course, also in the current challenging situation, but also forward-looking, is whenever we do, let's say, a rights issue or whatever the transaction is going to look like, that we give us also the flexibility to continue investing in the opportunity in the US.
Additional opportunities, we—I know we did disappoint the market last year because we did say previously that we have reasons to believe. We did never confirm it 100%, but we said we have reasons to believe that we can strike another deal on the offtake side shortly. It has not happened. It has also not happened, I tell you, because customers in the U.S. and partners in the U.S. are also very keen on what's the situation in Europe. Maybe not so much from the perspective of how do you continue? Would you continue? What's the resilience, and when do you do this and that? They are looking into more from a more prudent point of view, how do you stop your losses?
Make sure that you are ready for the U.S. and that you seize the opportunity that we are having there together. So I think, on the timing, I cannot tell you a definitive date, as of today, but, as I said, it's gonna be associated very likely with our current discussions we are having with interested incoming parties, industrial, on the industrial partnership side, and in order to make us ready also for additional growth in the U.S.
Okay, so sorry, Gunter. This is just quickly because it's a bit confusing. So the potential equity measure. So you are in advanced discussions by Euler Hermes, in terms of this debt facility. And what I'm trying to understand is if you get that debt facility, how comfortable are you then? Or what I'm trying to understand is the equity measure, basically, if you do announce that, that would be associated with an announcement that you're signing a potential contract with a strategic partner, so it would be unrelated to the debt facility. Or is the equity measure as an emergency measure if you don't get the debt?
I mean, that is theoretically an option, of course, but as I said, the likelihood of achieving the debt facility is very high, and so I do associate a potential equity measure with the strategic options we have on the table.
Okay.
There's no conditionality that we need to do an equity raise in order to get the Euler Hermes debt facility, if that's your question. That's not in place.
Okay. So an equity measure would come either way, basically, if you do get positive response from these potential partners.
Very likely, yeah.
Okay, understood. Thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question comes from Laura Bucher of Octavian AG.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I also have a couple of ones. If we could start with the... Well, let's start with this one. In case you do not move to the U.S., right? You mentioned that we already know that the German cell manufacturing would be supporting the U.S. throughout 2024. But if you do remain in Germany, I mean, how are you going to supply both operations with one cell manufacturing capacity?
Mm-hmm.
That would be my first question. Well, let's go with that one, and then I'll ask my other two questions after.
... Yeah. So, first of all, the U.S. is gonna go through a ramp up. So we do not need a gigawatt of cells immediately for ramping Arizona. What we are doing right now, and that's why we are running full throttle in Thalheim, in this German cell facility, we are piling up cell inventory to have enough cells available for the ramp up. So that's part of the answer. And eventually, and expected to happen around year-end, early 2025, we are gonna see the first cells coming off the line in Colorado Springs and then start the ramp up.
The other item you have to consider is what I already explained, we are switching product in Germany, so we have a very, very closely managed our supply chain under the current challenging situation in Europe and not piled up inventory for module making. So if we have a chance to continue in Europe, we have to spin up the supply chain wheel again. That's gonna take a little bit of time. So what you should not expect to happen is, we are ending our M6 product in March. That will then fall into, you know, the timing of a potential closing or continuation on the resilience, and then continue with the M10 in April.
So that's gonna take a bit of time to implement everything, to have the supply chain items secured and continually ramping. So we will see a bit of a gap in between March and once we would continue with the M10 product in Europe. And the total volumes needed from for both sides, they can be matched. We have other ideas how we can secure this. And at the end of the day, as a fallback, a potential fallback, and on the other hand, we put a lot of emphasis now on getting Colorado Springs up and running, in order not to come into such a conflict in case of both sides continuing.
Okay. Now for my next question. What would happen with the Bitterfeld cell manufacturing capacity if you do move to the US? I mean, you mentioned that it won't be affected now, but-
Yeah.
You know, am I correct in assuming that once you've ramped up the U.S. cell manufacturing, you will also close the Bitterfeld?
Correct. That's correct. The unfortunately correct, I have to say. Nevertheless, I think the considerations we have done, which I presented in my few slides about the potential downsizing costs, they do include a potential restructuring of Bitterfeld as well. So that's already considered in our planning, in our financial planning, and could also be funded via the inventory sale. And what I need to mention here is, assuming this unfortunate case of downsizing Europe, we do, on the other hand, have a brilliant opportunity for faster growth in the U.S. because we have paid up equipment. We can transfer it. We have done an assessment, what it would require.
This would not necessarily be lined up on the restructuring costs, or considered restructuring costs, but probably CapEx for additional U.S. manufacturing beyond the two gigawatts. And what we have assessed until so far needs to be done in way more detail, but the number that we have on hand today is some $50-$70 million in, you know, dismantling, hooking down, creating shipment, and implementing them in the U.S. Of course, we would need a site for the module, but finding a site for the module is easy. For the cell, we have a bit of spare real estate in our Goodyear, in our Colorado Springs facility.
I think the answer is we would very likely use it and move it to the U.S., and continue there on the new offtake agreements with industrial, or offtake partners, and more offtake partners.
Okay, the next question was if it was already included in the CHF 450, but you already answered that. So, I think I'm done for the moment. Thank you very much.
Thanks.
Thank you. The next question comes from Bernd Laux of ZKB.
Thank you. Good morning, Gunter. Hope you can hear me. My first question is regarding the cash situation. If I'm correct, then you consumed about CHF 220 million in cash throughout the second half of 2023. How much of that was CapEx, please? The second question is related to your idea of licensing out your technology. Would there be an option to get a major upfront license fee, or will it be structured first, a smaller license fee, and then subsequent royalties on a continuous basis, depending on the production of the partner? The third question, more hypothetical, have you thought about the situation in the U.S., should there be a government change coming in and a new President Trump potentially changing some of the Inflation Reduction Act regulation? Thank you very much.
... Okay. So on the cash uses, I would like to refer to the full year report in March that we will present it. We are still, it's preliminary numbers, so we are still finalizing everything. What we have invested until so far in Goodyear is also a large amount already, in a region of, you know, about $100 million. This is maybe a bit of a hint here, but please let us communicate on this once we have done the full report. On the license agreement, so this is in the making.
So there are several options how this could work. What's interesting about it is, we have certain requirements also from a taxing perspective or from a tax structural perspective. If you are operating R&D in Europe, and you would use the IP to produce a product in the U.S. , there's a certain, may name it a mandatory license amount of a certain at a certain level that you need to receive from a tax law perspective, so arm's length principles and so on and so forth. And so this can be amounts according to German and Swiss tax law, which would be underlying here, you know, between, let's say, 3%-6% of net sales.
So that gives you a bit of a feeling what that could mean. That can be very attractive looking forward if whatever potential setup would look like with a potential partner, you know, let's call it a JV structure or whatever, where two parties have skin in the game, but the other one, not in possession of the IP, needs to pay. And so that could, that could be the recurring revenues which are, you know, asset light and, risk-free, and just, I shouldn't say money for nothing, but, almost. So this is, this is pretty interesting here, but the, the exact setup, to be, to be discussed. A political, on the political side, that's, also a very fair question.
My answer is the following: When you, when you look into what has been created under the IRA until so far, it's not only solar, it's massive investments in wind, in batteries, in hydrogen and other technologies. So the U.S. always connected to the fossil world is greener than Europe in the meantime, in terms of industrial base. And they do this not just because the president's name is Biden, and he's a Democrat, but they have strategically understood that these are no commodities or whatsoever, which you buy all in China, and then all of a sudden, you get not any further supplies under whatever geopolitical setting. So I think there is, there is a rationale and a narrative of national security on the one hand.
That's what I'm sensing whenever I'm in the U.S. and speaking with stakeholders, even among them, many Republicans. And what they also do say is there is a likelihood that they will maybe, you know, correct the IRA here and there, because in order to avoid overspendings, in order to also increase the project quality, but there is no notion or concept of reversing it in full. This is unlikely to happen, and the other answer I can give to you is that many of the investments that now are going into the states under the IRA are going into red states. And guess what happens if someone in Washington, D.C., is gonna put their hands on the IRA, then they will get in trouble with their own folks at the governor level.
So I don't think this is a real threat. And the fourth answer I can give to you to leave you rest assured is remember, BioNTech did make a decision to go to the U.S. even before the IRA. In December 2021, we communicated that we have secured the building because we've been believing in the market, because even prior to the IRA, there was a lot of protection on the trade side via tariffs and other regulations. Long story short, the contracts we have signed with the off-takers, they are still valid even if the IRA is going away. So there is no contingency in the sense or no connection or conditionality, that's what I wanted to say in regards to the IRA.
If the IRA would be reversed, that we are seeing terminations of the contract. So that's not the part, and also, we believe that profitability is still very attractive even in the absence of the IRA, but again, very unlikely to happen in our opinion.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question comes from Mengxian Sun , Deutsche Bank.
Hi, thank you very much for taking my question. So the first question, I would like to take it one by one. So the first question is regarding to the strategic partner discussion. So do I understand that correctly? So this is associated with the equity raise. So the question is, is this partner going to take part of the equity raise in a private placement, or is the equity needed to fund further growth with this strategic partner?
... It can be both. That would be my simple answer. So, a potential, a potential strategic partner, would have skin in the game also at the top co level. But also make sure that, you know, there's, there's funding, available for potential additional growth. So if, if a partnership is, entertained, there are also different or other sources of funding. And what we, what we also tried to make clear in, in our press release today when we, when we spoke about the, asset light concept. Assume a constellation of additional capacities or even within the existing capacities, and, Meyer Burger joining forces with another party, let's call it co-owning this. Then there could also be funding injected via this channel, which is not equity.
I mean, it's, it, it is equity, but not at the top co level. So that, that is, that is another interesting concept here. So we have these various options, but we want to be, we want to be, you know, flexible enough, given the current challenges, and the, and the complexity of things, in the European market with the upcoming decisions and all of this, with the different funding sources, debt and potential equity measures, to, to have the means to go for the growth opportunity in the US.
And the second question is, please help us to understand the funding requirements better. Could you give us more colors regarding to the timeline of the funding? When do you need it for 2020, how much do you need it for 2024, and how much do you need it for 2025? And, can you also break down, give us a breakdown of the usage of the funding. So what has been already funded and what remains to be financed?
So the exact split and breakdown, I'm not presenting here. What I can tell you about the timeline is, we are expecting the CapEx funding for the two gigawatts to last until the last tranche is paid to suppliers, given, you know, acceptance tests and so on and so forth, to reach into, you know, end of 2025, maybe even beginning of 2026, H1 2026. Small amounts then. The bigger parts needed, speaking in project terms, is now for the upgrade of the Colorado Springs facility. So this is a bigger part of the project. Utility facility spending in the U.S. is higher than in Europe, and considerably higher than in Europe.
This is something we need to secure in order to stay on track. The other needs for the CapEx, so the majority is going to come in H2 2024, H1 2025, and then, you know, fading in from today, fading out into H1 2026, maximum.
Okay, thank you very much. And, another question is going back to the, to the equity raise, is, are we talking about, if we are looking at the strategic partners, are they-- if they are going to participate into the equity raise, do you think they are going to take the majority part of the CHF 200 million?
I cannot comment on this. We are not at the stage to comment. It's still in the making, various options on the table and, please be patient for another couple of weeks-
Mm-hmm.
until we can disclose.
Okay, and the last question is on the sale proceeds, because you mentioned there are two options currently for the European module facilities. So let's talk about a scenario of a complete closure of the Freiberg module production. So how much sale proceeds from the asset sales do you expect to receive?
I did not get the question. Can you please repeat?
So in a scenario of a complete closure of the module production in Germany, you're selling all the assets in the module factories, and you mentioned at the beginning, there is a certain part of the sales proceeds that you can receive from the asset sale. Do you have a rough estimate? So how much sales proceeds can you get from the sale?
Okay. CHF 100 million, that's maybe a good indication, ±.
Okay, thank you very much. That's my question.
Thanks a lot. The next question comes from Anton Karl, from Sentis Capital.
Hi, Gunter. Hi, good morning. I have a rather high-level question. After having observed as an investor the last month, how Europe executes on anti-dumping and on competition law with China, how can you trust, even if they create something in law, how can you trust the European governments that they don't change their mind immediately again, considering China? And from my perspective as an investor, I'm less worried about Trump, because Trump has shown that he actually takes care about his companies in the U.S. I mean, at First Solar wouldn't be existing in the U.S. if they hadn't strict anti-dumping laws and customs. So, and this brings me to the next question. If you close the module factory, how long will it take until you close the cell factory?
A year, nine months? And, again, I ask this again, even if they put something in law, how can you trust the German, German government and the European politics in the future after they have shown how they execute or don't execute on anti-dumping laws? Thank you.
Yeah. So on the technical question, on the cell line, you should assume that we keep it up and running throughout the entire year, 2024, potentially also into Q1 2025. So depending on the overall cell demand, maybe also referring back to the other question I received, how would we manage different sites? So that's on Thalheim. I mean, trusting politicians, I think that's a self-fulfilling prophecy, so well, doesn't really make sense. You either have hard facts or you don't have them. But... And, you know, actually, I wanted to talk more about the U.S. opportunity than Europe, because that's all speculation.
But since you asked me, I think what would definitely help the sustainability of the lawmaking or of the laws that were made, potentially, is that we have an overarching European law that was never there before. So the Net Zero Industry Act, I can only encourage you to take the time to read through it. It's a real good thing. It's a bit complex in understanding it, because like anything in Europe, but it comprises measures like 30%, maybe even 50% of all public tenders in solar. The goods have to come from non-GPA countries, the Government Procurement Agreement. So there is China excluded, others excluded. So that's in that law, also for wind, for batteries.
So if this thing passes, I think we have only a timing issue for the rest of Europe to adopt it in international systems. And the German resilience bonus thing would actually be the pulled-in nationalization of the NZIA, at least for the solar part. And that gives me a bit of confidence. I wouldn't say trust, never trust them, but confidence that you have a rock-solid system in place that you cannot simply easily reverse. Of course, you can under a new government, but I think that's a bit more surety that it works. Tariffs, to be honest with you, I mean, Meyer Burger has not been too keen on promoting publicly tariffs because tariffs do have a lot of caveats.
Also in the U.S., what we've seen initially, also in India, the Chinese simply also subsidized the tariffs on top of it, in order to kill the others. And this might even hinder the growth of the sector and then fire back also on companies like us. So that's why we've been so much pushing on the resilience part, because it's definitely the smarter idea. What's happening, though, in Europe, and I think I said that already, is, there are even voices in Brussels that are currently pretty supportive of tariffs. And there is, in Brussels, at least, there is a growing anti-China sentiment, triggered by the car industry issues. But again, you know, our current focus is in the U.S.
That's where the opportunity is, that's where we have the right setup, and now we need to execute to get there.
I have one more follow-up question. Considering that the U.S. is much stricter and much more effective on anti-dumping and competition law under Trump and Biden, it doesn't matter, they are very—they were very strict, both, both governments. Considering that, why don't you consider, if you close everything in Germany at some point, why don't you consider to become a full U.S. company, meaning also moving the headquarters and the listing to the U.S.?
Well, that's probably also an opportunity, but, you know, step by step. It's, we are a small company. We can only do, you know, one step at a time. But maybe your question, I may refer again to why we are interested in a strategic cooperation with industrial partners, which exactly help us to get a bit of load from our shoulders on the execution side, and, you know, join forces with others to have more management bandwidth also to tackle such interesting concepts. But there are no clients for the time being to do that. If we were focusing only on the US, I agree with you, tapping into the equity markets in the US, then it would be a prerequisite.
This is probably or would have to be on the list then.
Okay, thank you.
I don't know if there are further questions. Unfortunately, I have to step into the next call. Today is a very busy, busy call. We do have another call this afternoon at 3:00 P.M. CET. You reach out to our investor relations, Alex Müller, and then we can set up individual calls, or answer questions by email, if that's okay.
All right, then I will close the Q&A session now, and wish you all a good day and a good afternoon.
Thank you so much.