Lightning eMotors, Inc. (ZEVY)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Aug 14, 2023

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Lightning eMotors second quarter 2023 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Brian Smith, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Brian Smith
VP of Investor Relations, Lightning eMotors

Thank you, operator, and thank you for joining us. On the call today are Lightning's Co-founder and CEO, Tim Reeser, Chief Revenue Officer, Kash Sethi, and CFO, David Agatston. Ahead of this call, Lightning issued our second quarter 2023 earnings press release and presentation deck, which we will reference today. These can be found on the investor relations section of our website at lightningemotors.com. On this call, management will be making statements based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to risk factors that are listed in today's earnings release and in our filings with the SEC. We assume no duty to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law. Today's presentation also includes non-GAAP financial measures.

Please refer to the information contained in today's earnings press release for definitional information and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP measures. With that, let me turn it over to Tim.

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

Thank you, Brian. Thanks to everyone for joining us today. I'll start off on slide four with today's agenda. I will begin with a second quarter summary, followed by an overview of key products, an update of our Lightning eChassis development, supply chain progress, and conclude with an overview of the incentives landscape and the 2024 California Advanced Clean Fleets regulation. Kash will then provide an update on products, markets, and customer success. David will wrap up with a financial summary. Moving to slide five, a summary of the quarter. First, Q2 was a strong quarter, with the second highest quarterly revenue in our company's history. You'll recall that our prior two quarters were constrained by issues related to the recall of Romeo batteries. With that behind us, I'm pleased with the solid order book we have built for our ZEV4 school bus and shuttle bus vehicles.

We have sufficient inventory and the orders in hand to convert that inventory into cash during Q3 and Q4, are maintaining the lower end of our 2023 revenue guidance. As we turn inventory into cash and reduce our outgoing cash outlays, we continue to explore all options and have been working with financial advisors to support a recapitalization and/or sale of the business. Moving to slide six, I want to elaborate on our continued product development focus for 2023. Our near-term focus is on our ZEV4 vehicles, which include Class four school and shuttle buses and Class four trucks, plus our mobile DC fast charger, while our longer-term focus is on the Lightning eChassis. We ramped production of our ZEV4 platform vehicles in Q2, I'm pleased to say the customer response has been very positive, and customers are already responding with repeat orders.

In addition to the ZEV4 ramp-up, we delivered our first customer units of the mobile DC fast charger in the quarter. The mobile DC fast charger is a one-of-a-kind product with an attractive sales price. We expect the sales pipeline to continue to grow as potential customers complete successful trials and demonstrations, and we expect these to result in multi-unit purchases or leases. While the sales ramp may take time, initial customer reaction is extremely positive and over a wide range of real-world use cases. Turning to slide seven, the development of our Lightning eChassis is progressing well with prototype development, and testing is scheduled later this year. We expect to have two chassis initially, one for Class three and one for Class four, which share many common components. They both will provide improved range and payload versus our current ZEV3 and ZEV4 vehicles.

Lightning's current ZEV3 passenger van is the only electric passenger van in the market in North America today for Class two or three . We expect our new ZEV3 e-chassis to allow us to continue our leadership in the medium-duty passenger van segment. Our new ZEV4 cutaway chassis, e-chassis, will support multiple vehicle applications, such as buses, trucks, and ambulances, and come with a modern single or dual cab, with safety features not available today on current medium-duty cutaway platforms. We continue to stay true to our capital-light model and are collaborating closely with a chassis partner who already has the manufacturing capability to support our requirements. Moving to slide eight, let's discuss the supply chain landscape.

I am certain that I am as tired of talking about supply chain as our investors are in hearing about it, there's no denying that the EV supply chain continues to be dynamic and still in a very early state relative to the traditional automotive supply chain. On the chassis side, supply has improved materially, and we have sufficient supply to meet our revenue guidance. Inconsistent lead times and timing of deliveries can still impact quarterly revenue and result in temporary inventory spikes like we saw in Q2. The GM chassis is preferred by most Type A school bus OEMs, and we are currently the only EV manufacturer with an electrified solution on this platform. On the battery front, we have sufficient quantities of high-quality batteries from Proterra and CATL to meet our Q3 and Q4 build plans.

The dynamics of the battery supplier landscape over the last few years led us to adopt a multi-source strategy, and that will serve us well given the most recent news from Proterra. We are in discussions with Proterra and expect to be able to purchase batteries from them as needed for 2024. As we look to the future, we are engaged with all major battery suppliers and technologies to identify other lower cost, high-quality battery solutions. Beyond chassis and batteries, we continue to work to diversify our supply chain and to find higher quality components from reputable suppliers. We are managing through such transitions for components, including motors, vehicle outfits, and power steering pumps. Turning to slide nine.

This chart shows how new US and Canadian incentive programs purposefully align with our current product offerings. Our customers have been using these incentives to help fund a portion of the purchase price of our vehicles. We are beginning to see increased order activity as we help customers navigate the application process and obtain needed approvals. These new incentives and the associated cumbersome application and award processes have elongated the sales cycle due to lack of definition and extended award timing. We are now seeing some steady flow and expect the pipeline and backlog to continue to accelerate as customers become more familiar with the incentive processes. Turning to slide 10, I want to highlight that incentives are not the only demand driver. States are also implementing mandates to further drive adoption.

The most imminent and impactful new mandate is the Advanced Clean Fleets regulation that California Air Resources Board approved in April 2023. The regulation requires a phased-in transition for California fleets towards zero-emission, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles, starting in 2024. The adopted rule is meant to enforce a large-scale transition of zero-emission, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles in California.

Starting this January, commercial fleets of 50 more trucks, as well as federal government agency fleets with vehicles in California, will be required to add zero-emission vehicles to their fleets. From 2024 to 2026, 50% of state and local government purchases must also be zero-emission vehicle or near zero-emission vehicles. As of the 2021 census, there were over 55,000 Class four through six vehicles in California, with five to seven-year replacement cycles that will be immediately impacted by this regulation. In addition, there are 14 other states who are adopting or considering adopting similar mandates. Now I'll turn it to Kash to provide an update on products, markets, and customer success.

Kash Sethi
Chief Revenue Officer, Lightning eMotors

Thank you, Tim. I'll begin on slide 12 with an update on our Class four EVs. Earlier this year, we launched our next generation ZEV4, a flexible platform that allows us to build a variety of commercial vehicles, like school buses, public transit, shuttle buses, and various kinds of delivery trucks and work trucks. The strategy of leveraging the industry's existing bus and truck upfitter network is working, and we continue to explore partnerships with additional vehicle builders. As Tim mentioned, we successfully wrapped up ZEV4 production in Q2, and customer feedback has been positive so far. Moving on to slide 13 for an update on our 2nd generation, Lightning Mobile DC fast charger. I'm pleased to report that we have delivered the first customer units in Q2.

Additionally, we showcased the product at the Dallas Fort Worth Airport, where we provided mobile charging to airport staff and customers in a variety of airport locations. We developed this product based on over two years of testing and customer feedback on our first generation Lightning Mobile. It is designed to support up to 420 kWh of energy and can fast charge over five vehicles, up to five vehicles at a time. The impressive array of use cases range from fleet managers needing short to medium-term charging solutions as they wait for the long-term solutions to be upgraded, to event planners who want to provide passenger car charging at concerts, sporting events, and music festivals, to tow truck companies who would use it to rescue EVs that may have been stranded after running out of juice.

We look forward to sharing more updates on this exciting product in the near future. Turning to slide 14, we summarize here our current lineup of products that are driving our business this year: zero-emission cargo vans, delivery and work trucks, passenger vans, shuttle buses, school buses, and the Lightning Mobile DC Fast Charger. These are real products on the road with customers today, and we continue to receive repeat orders from an expanding customer base. We will continue exploring new products and new vehicle partnerships that have strong growth potential in 2024 and beyond. Moving to slide 15 for an update on the large order we previously announced from Macnab EV Sales. This contract includes 126 zero-emission vehicles, a mix of ZEV3 and ZEV4 cargo vans, passenger vans, and shuttle buses.

Initial deliveries occurred in Q2, and we expect to deliver the balance of the order across Q3 and Q4. Turning to slide 16, I want to highlight the success of our ZEV4 school bus product so far. We're building this in partnership with Collins, a REV Group company. Collins has over 50 years of experience building school buses with tens of thousands of buses on the road today. We're able to leverage not only their bus manufacturing expertise, but also their nationwide network of school bus dealers, who make for a great sales and service partner. Nearly 40 electric school buses have been deployed this year, and we have a significant number of confirmed orders for additional buses to be built in Q3 and Q4. Moving on to slide 17, let's look at some numbers from the field.

We've now deployed over 600 zero-emission commercial vehicles that have accumulated an impressive 4.9 million miles on the road, a number growing rapidly every week. This includes over 10 unique vehicle types, demonstrating the variety of market verticals our core EV technology can be commercialized in.

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

With real products and customer success stories, we are positioned nicely in the marketplace, where many of our competitors are still in the prototype development and testing phase, years behind us on real-world experience. With that, I will turn it over to David to provide an update on Lightning's financial results and outlook.

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Thank you, Kash. I will now provide some commentary on our second quarter results, followed by our 2023 outlook. Beginning on slide 19, for the second quarter, we generated GAAP revenue of $7.9 million, our second-highest revenue quarter ever, driven by the initial success of our recently launched ZEV4 school bus product and continued sales of our ZEV3 inventory. On an adjusted basis, our revenue was $8.2 million on sales of 70 units. The difference between adjusted and GAAP revenue is the prorated charge we took for buying back some vehicles with Romeo batteries, the impact of which we recorded mostly in Q1. In the quarter, Lightning produced 46 units, including vehicles, powertrains, and mobile DC fast chargers.

The Adjusted EBITDA loss for the first quarter was $17.1 million, compared to a $13.9 million loss in the prior year period. The change is primarily related to a larger gross loss on higher cost of revenues. A reconciliation of net income to the Adjusted EBITDA loss can be found on slide 23, and the revenue reconciliation can be found on slide 24. Turning to slide 20, Lightning ended the second quarter with $12.6 million in cash and cash equivalents. We believe that this cash, plus the Yorkville facility and the cash we will collect from the sales of our existing inventory, is sufficient to fund our operations in the near future.

We have seen a material uptick in cash inflow recently as we collect on the revenue booked in Q2 and early Q3, and recently received material cash proceeds from a legal settlement. We obviously know that we still need to secure additional funding, we are actively exploring all avenues to raise the capital needed to support operations. Net inventory at the end of the first quarter was $57 million, up from last quarter on chassis purchases required to meet our second half 2023 order demand. We expect to draw down on our inventory over the course of the next several quarters, which will help improve our cash flow. The deal with Macnab, that Kash highlighted, will be fulfilled exclusively with inventory on hand and therefore provide material cash into the business.

As with any growing company, inventory and accounts receivable have been cash drains for us over the past couple of years. In the upcoming quarters, we expect that trend to reverse. As noted on the Q1 earnings call, we took actions in early Q2 to reduce our expenses. While those steps have had the intended impact, we continue to identify further opportunities to reduce expenditures and conserve cash. Turning to slide 21, we have been upfront about our need to raise additional capital to fund operations. We are pleased that despite extremely challenging market conditions, we have options. We have the existing equity line of credit with Lincoln Park and a prepaid advance agreement with Yorkville. However, our ability to raise funds through these instruments can be constrained by our current market capitalization and daily trading volumes.

In addition, in order to further leverage the Yorkville PPA, we require a successful outcome from the shareholder vote on August 24th. If the vote is successful, we expect to begin drawing on the PPA again immediately to bring additional cash into the business. As a reminder, we still have approximately $47 million left on the original commitment with Yorkville. Furthermore, we have been actively working with advisors, including an investment bank, to approach parties interested in helping us scale the business via additional financing, recapitalization, and/or strategic partnerships, and also to explore the sale of the company. We're considering all structural and strategic options available to us to maximize liquidity and returns to stakeholders and hope to have a positive outcome from this process by year-end. Turning to slide 22, our outlook for the year.

Based on current business conditions, we expect for 2023, revenue to be in the range of $35 million-$45 million, vehicle and powertrain system sales to be in the range of 300-350 units, vehicle and powertrain production to be in the range of 200-230 units. We have reduced the top end of our annual revenue guidance from $50 million to $45 million, and also lowered the top end of the unit sale range accordingly. We reduced the top end of the revenue and unit sales to reflect a change made to conserve cash. We are now only purchasing inventory if needed for firm orders.

While we will likely receive additional firm orders during the second half of this year, that could have allowed us to hit the original top end of guidance, we may not be able to obtain the inventory needed to complete those builds in time to book revenue in 2023. We also lowered the unit production range to reflect both the change to a build-to-order model and because we still have a material amount of finished goods inventory available to sell to meet our revenue guidance. I will turn it back over to Tim for closing remarks.

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

Thank you, David. I remain optimistic about the outlook for Lightning eMotors as we continue to execute our strategic and operating plans. Our team has managed through more challenges than I care to list over the past two years. As we make progress on our new platforms, as the government incentives and mandates gain further traction, and as customer adoption grows, I see a bright future for commercial electric vehicles and for Lightning eMotors. I would like to finish by thanking all of our customers for their confidence in Lightning, our partners for their contributions to our company's progress, and our shareholders for their support. I especially want to thank our employees, who are executing at a high level through a challenging operating environment. With that, thank you, everyone. I appreciate your time today. Operator, we are now ready to open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conduct a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the questioning queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using a speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your headset before pressing the star key. One moment please while we pull for questions. Our first question comes from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Colin Rusch
Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Growth and Resource Optimization Research, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Hey, guys. Thanks so much for, for having me on. Can you talk a little bit about the, the mix of vehicle types that you're seeing as, as you've gone through this year, and, and look at kind of where the sweet spot is on incentives and, and where there's real demand and, and sell through? What can you say about, you know, the vehicle types that you guys have in the, in the backlog at this point?

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

Thank you, Colin. Great to hear from you again. I think one of the reasons we've spent a lot of time focusing on Class four, well, there's two reasons. One of them is the incentives landscape with both IRA, and FTA and EPA all combining together for that Class four product. The other thing is our Class four product is quite utilitarian in the sense that it can be a school bus, it can be a shuttle bus, and it can be a work truck. So it's a unique product in that sense. That, that is certainly where we see demand, and we've talked a lot about school buses picking up, but also shuttle buses and work trucks, in those areas. We've continued to see good demand on our ZEV3 product as well.

So a lot in the passenger space, as I said, we're the only people who have a, a Class three passenger van available today as an electric vehicle, so we have some unique parts. Not only do we see the demand in places where very clearly there are incentives and now mandates, as I mentioned, but also where that we don't have a lot of competition. In both those areas, we don't have much competition in many of the applications and use cases we have, and that's where we see the scaling and the demand happening.

Colin Rusch
Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Growth and Resource Optimization Research, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Perfect. Then, you know, there's been some changes in the battery landscape. Can you talk a little bit about the supply chain and how you're navigating that? Obviously, there's a lot of puts and takes around that, but just want to understand some of the resilience in your own supplier base.

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

Yeah, we, we decided after lots of challenges, five years ago that we had to have a dual source plan. Since really early on, we've maintained multiple battery sources for... And frankly, have had lots of challenges with those sources along the way, with different battery suppliers struggling to deliver, struggling with quality, different battery suppliers struggling with availability, some going out of business. That landscape is, is obviously not evolving in a positive way at this point. I think it still remains challenging, our goal has been to be multi-sourced in the battery space. As, as you've seen today, we've, we have both CATL and Proterra batteries in inventory, in stock. We're able to make, you know, many different of our variants of products with different batteries.

Our commitment remains stronger than ever to continue that multi-source strategy. We do, I think on the other side of multi-source, we've maintained a lot of inventory, and obviously, that's been a tough drain on cash, but it's paying off at this point in the sense that we have inventory to build these next two quarters, and that's been huge as well.

We, it's an area where we think our experience is paying off in the sense that we understood the value of multi-source and have executed on that, and the, the money we've spent and the investments we've made, both from a technology standpoint and an inventory, are paying off, too. We, we feel good about it, but certainly, we, we know we have to remain vigilant, and we're going to have to continue to have multi-source options, to succeed.

Colin Rusch
Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Growth and Resource Optimization Research, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Perfect. One last one from me. You know, you, you went through, you know, a, a fairly robust and, and thorough, you know, design out of cost on, on your manufacturing. And you've separate from that, you know, have invested in the, the chassis production. Can we just get an update on, on how all of that's flowing through in terms of your cost structure and how we should think about, some of that evolving over the next, you know, two to three quarters?

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

Yeah, I think there, there's two parts to what evolves. One of them is, you know, are we selling through inventory that was made, you know, in the past, so it may not have taken advantage of some of those cost reductions. The second one, of course, is, is where the volume ends up. We are benefiting, as you look forward and look at our guidance from significant improvements in volumes, which significantly improves how we allocate or the allocation cost per vehicle of overhead and fixed assets. That's one of the cases that the, the volume is improving. Then, as you point out, we've reduced...

For example, labor costs per vehicle has gone down and continues to go down, and especially when you're building, in the case of ZEV4, we're still within the first 100 units, there's a tremendous amount of optimization and learning that goes on in those first 100 units in terms of making it more efficiently. That's going very well as well. We, we do continue to see and are very optimistic about where we see the costs going, and we can see it firsthand. The other thing is, we're seeing the volumes improve firsthand. We really want both of those to occur in order to really see the efficiencies and ultimately hit positive gross margin. Did I miss anything, David? Just, you know, cost downs from batteries over time.

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Yes, will be another big one and motors.

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

Okay, w e've got both matters, batteries and motors, coming down in cost significantly, too, over the next couple of years.

Colin Rusch
Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Growth and Resource Optimization Research, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Perfect. Thanks so much, guys.

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

Thank you, Colin.

Operator

Our next question comes from Sherif El-Sabbahy with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Sherif El-Sabbahy
Research Analyst, Bank of America Securities

Hi, good afternoon. So I understand you have batteries on hand, and we've discussed the issue with a battery supplier. You know, just concerning customers, are they expressing any concerns about taking products with a supplier that's, you know, currently under Chapter 11, you know, issues with warranties or so forth? Are they looking to change out maybe what products they're looking at based on the battery supplier front?

Kash Sethi
Chief Revenue Officer, Lightning eMotors

Hey, Sherif, this is Kash. Yeah, I mean, we're certainly getting questions from customers, existing customers and, and dealer partners on, on what happened, what does it mean, what are our options? I think as, as Tim alluded to, us having a multi-source battery strategy really comes in handy here now, just so we have more options based on how the next three to six months plays out with that one specific company. It, it is a conversation with customers. We are still building products with the battery. We're gonna be building more products with that battery, and so far it hasn't resulted in any canceled deals or lost orders. Certainly the industry and, and us, we're keeping an eye on how that situation evolves.

It might have an impact in the future, but I think because we will be able to come to the plate with another battery option available that can go into production right away, not in two years, I'm assuming the impact will be minimal for us, versus another OEM, where the only battery they had vetted was that specific battery, where there's a bit of a risk now.

Sherif El-Sabbahy
Research Analyst, Bank of America Securities

Just to follow up on that, with the CATL batteries, are those designed into each of your products and exchangeable versus a Proterra battery, or is there any redesign work needed to use a CATL on any particular models?

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

We've been in process of designing the CATL, and some models are native. For example, our mobile battery, MBVC product is CATL native, so we don't have to change anything there. Some products are native, and so the backup plan is either, you know, already in place or in process. In the case of ZEV 4, the backup to CATL has been in process for quite some time. That's why Kash is saying we can pivot fairly quickly, because it was always already underway, meaning we already have inventory of the product, we already have of the specific batteries, we already have used the batteries in other applications, so we know the software well, we know the integration well, and et cetera. It is something that we're able to pivot very quickly.

Sherif El-Sabbahy
Research Analyst, Bank of America Securities

Understood. Just lastly, with the volumes, unit volumes picking up in the second half, should we expect to see gross margin inflect positively?

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Wouldn't expect to get to positive gross margin this year. We think it'd be, you know, first half of next year, but we would certainly expect to see gross margin improve as we migrate more towards the ZEV4, which is, has higher ASPs and, slightly, you know, and a better gross margin than we have on our ZEV3s.

Sherif El-Sabbahy
Research Analyst, Bank of America Securities

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Ward with The Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. First off, on page 10, with these new California regulations, do the regulations apply to just companies or fleets registered in California or to anyone doing business in California?

Kash Sethi
Chief Revenue Officer, Lightning eMotors

Hey, Mike, this is Kash. If anybody operating and needs the vehicle registered in California.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Okay, does that total-

Kash Sethi
Chief Revenue Officer, Lightning eMotors

The company's headquarters could be somewhere else.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Okay. That fleet of about 370,000 units, does that include the other 14 states that are gonna adhere to those regulations? If not, do you have any idea of the size that could add?

Kash Sethi
Chief Revenue Officer, Lightning eMotors

No, that number is only for California. I don't have a good estimate off the top of my head. I mean, it could be all 14 could be combined to be something similar, but I don't know for sure, Mike.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Okay. It, it's substantial. Okay. Do any of your partners listed on page 14, do they have a sizable fleet in California, and have they talked to you yet about how they're gonna com- 'cause some of them start as early as January 1, 2024, correct?

Kash Sethi
Chief Revenue Officer, Lightning eMotors

Correct. That is correct. Yes, we, we are having those conversations with our truck partners, who are having conversations with fleet operators in California on what the regulation means, how do they plan for it, can they do it in stages, what vehicle types? Those conversations are happening.

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

There's kind of a second part. We, we didn't want to get into the complexity, but when you look at the opportunity, kind of to your question specifically, Mike, the regulation not only applies to customers being required to buy zero-emission vehicles, but it also applies to OEMs required to build a certain percentage of their fleet be zero-emission vehicles, or they pay a fine. We've been accumulating these heavy-duty zero-emission vehicle credits for the last 1.5 years, and there's a lot of interest in that as well.

To your point, we, you know, many of these OEMs we work with, have to have a plan because not only do they need to be able to meet the customer demands that are really taking off, but they also need to be able to meet their own demands, or else they get heavy fines.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Okay. Then on, David, when you look at the cash inflows on the second half, excluding operations, from what I can tell, there are three sources. You have the inventory rundown, and that could be meaningful, right? From a working capital standpoint, $5 million-$10 million, is that a reasonable assumption for the second half, positive?

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

You mean saying just from the revenue, the cash we collect from the revenue that we expect to book in the second half?

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Yeah, well, if you have, you've had this working capital use now pretty consistently, so at some point, that should start to turn positive. Inventory rundown, whatever it's gonna be. Is it safe to assume that $5 million-$10 million positive in the second half?

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Well, I, I look at it as all positive. In other words, whatever we get in from selling down the inventory, there will be no expense against that, because we've already paid for the inventory from a cash perspective, if that makes sense, Mike?

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Okay. Yeah, now how much-

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

You know, we have payroll and other things, so it doesn't net 100%.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

No, no, no, I understand. If, if you have $57 million in inventory, how much of that is finished goods that can be sold off?

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

$20 million-$25 million.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Okay. Then you have the Linamar settlement, $3 million. That cash will come in in the second half?

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Correct.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Okay, the equity line. I assume you'll tap some of the equity line in the second half as well, that should get you through into, from a cash perspective, into the...

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Yorkville. We also have Yorkville, which is, you know, as well.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

in Yorkville?

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

$47 million.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Okay.

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Yeah, $47 million left on the Yorkville.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Okay, you have plenty of liquidity to get you into 2024, and then you look for something more permanent. Is that what are you thinking?

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Absolutely.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Okay.

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

It's not like we're waiting to 2024 to look for that. We're, we're looking for it now.

Michael Ward
Senior Equity Analyst, The Benchmark Company

Right. No, no, absolutely. Absolutely. All right. Thank you. Thank you very much.

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Thank you, Mike.

Operator

Our next question comes from Abhi Sinha with Northland Securities. Please go ahead.

Abhi Sinha
Managing Director of Equity Research, Northland Capital Markets

Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just quick one. What kind of contract do you have with CATL for the batteries? I mean, would they be able to pick up your entire load? Second, if you could compare, the two margins that you get with CATL versus Proterra batteries.

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

Yeah. So I, I think a few things. We have a, I'd say the CATL contract is actually being renegotiated as we speak, but yes, they have committed to date that they can meet our volumes, even, you know, the entire load. As we said, we remain committed to multi-source, so, we don't expect to, you know, put all of our load over onto them. But they can if we need to. We have the They have the capacity, as you can imagine, given being that, you know, they are the largest battery supplier in the world. From a, a, a margin standpoint, I'll, I'll position it a little differently, and that is, we look at, you know, what are the batteries cost us because we, we sell a complete powertrain that includes the batteries.

As you can imagine, the, the CATL batteries are a less expensive chemistry. The chemistry is lithium iron phosphate rather than NMC. Consequently, the chemistry makes them significantly cheaper on the order of you know, 30%-40%. It's a material amount. Yes, there are margin improvement opportunities from us in cases where we do use CATL instead of Proterra.

Abhi Sinha
Managing Director of Equity Research, Northland Capital Markets

Got it. Thank you. Then, out of the 200-250 units, that you're gonna sell next two quarters, can you talk about the cadence of that? It's like 116 coming from Macnab, and, you know, what do we look at third quarter versus fourth quarter? Is there any other bigger order, just like Macnab, or is this more of a more very well, segmented, diversified ones?

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

You're asking, over what period of time do you expect us to book the, the revenue and cash from Macnab and what, where else we're getting orders? Sorry, I didn't quite follow, Abhi.

Abhi Sinha
Managing Director of Equity Research, Northland Capital Markets

Right. You have 200, 250 units sold, coming out from the next 2 quarters, right?

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Yeah.

Abhi Sinha
Managing Director of Equity Research, Northland Capital Markets

Just trying to understand how many your third quarter versus fourth quarter, which one is more heavy?

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Yeah. I mean... so yeah, one of the reasons we've moved away from quarterly guidance is because that, that timing can be really tricky in terms of, you know, when things hit. You know, you can obviously back into what our second half is in total, and how, how that flows, I mean, you know, is, is a little unclear at this point. You know, I, I would think the good news is they're both higher than, than Q1 and Q2.

Abhi Sinha
Managing Director of Equity Research, Northland Capital Markets

Sure. And the second is kind of.

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

Yeah, maybe expanding and then, and maybe this hits it or maybe you have another one. I think the other question is kind of where they come from. There's a big customer in, in Macnab, but I think it's safe to say, Kash, the rest of the order book is much more diversified in terms of a lot of customers buying $500,000 or $1 million worth of, of vehicles rather than, you know, all concentrated. Is that?

Kash Sethi
Chief Revenue Officer, Lightning eMotors

Yeah, we have a lot of customers buying anywhere from 5 to 25 vehicles for the rest of the year. That, that's the mix.

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

We still expect school buses to be strong in the second half of the year also.

Tim Reeser
CEO, Lightning eMotors

Absolutely.

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Yeah.

Kash Sethi
Chief Revenue Officer, Lightning eMotors

The school bus number combined will be a very nice number, but it'll be split between various school districts across the country.

Abhi Sinha
Managing Director of Equity Research, Northland Capital Markets

Got it. Thank you. That's the last. Thank you very much.

David Agatston
CFO, Lightning eMotors

Thank you, Abhi.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a good day.

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