Empresas CMPC S.A. (SNSE:CMPC)
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Apr 30, 2026, 4:02 PM CLT
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Earnings Call: Q2 2024

Aug 2, 2024

Fernando Hasenberg
CFO, Empresas CMPC

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Empresas CMPC second quarter 2024 earnings webinar. I am Fernando Hasenberg, CFO of the company, and joining me today we have Francisco Ruiz-Tagle, CEO of CMPC, Raimundo Varela, CEO of CMPC Pulp, Guilherme Viesi, Commercial Director at CMPC Pulp, and Claudia Cavada, our Investor Relations Officer. Please note that the statements made today during the presentation and Q&A may include forward-looking statements to assist you in understanding our expectation for future performance. These statements are subject to some risk and could cause actual results and events to differ materially. For the second quarter of 2024, sales were $1,888 million. EBITDA was $377 million, and net income was $125 million.

The pulp business generated an EBITDA of $251 million, with an EBITDA margin of 33.5%. EBITDA increased 30% quarter-over-quarter, which is explained by a higher average sales price and lower cash costs. Softys business show an EBITDA of $132 million, with an EBITDA margin of 15.1%, decreasing 20% quarter-over-quarter and increasing 4% year-over-year. The quarter-over-quarter variation is explained by increasing pulp prices during the year, along with the depreciation of currencies in Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. Biopackaging generated an EBITDA of $24 million during the period. This represents a 27% decrease quarter-over-quarter when excluding the insurance compensation received in the previous period.

The decline is attributed to reduced sales due to seasonality, weakness in some markets, and higher pulp price. As mentioned, in the second quarter, sales were $1.9 billion, slightly lower than the previous quarter. This was due to lower sales volumes in pulp, which were mainly offset by higher average selling prices. Additionally, Biopackaging experienced decreased revenues due to lower prices and sales volumes as a result from a weaker demand due to seasonality and its sales to the building material industry. Compared to the second quarter of last year, revenues decreased by 6%, primarily due to lower sales volumes, which were partially offset by higher average selling prices in pulp. Biopackaging was also impacted by the lower selling prices, and Softys experienced reduced volumes due to challenging market condition in most of the markets.

Operating costs reached $1.2 billion, decreasing 3% quarter-over-quarter and 14% year-over-year. This represented 63% of total revenues in the second quarter of 2024, which compares to the 63% in the first quarter of 2024 and 69% in the second quarter of 2023. The decrease in operating costs compared to the first quarter of 2024 is attributed to lower direct costs in pulp, which were partially offset by higher direct cost in Softys and Biopackaging. Other operating expenses, account that comprises distribution costs, administrative expenses, and other expenses by function, amounted to $314 million in the second quarter, decreasing by 1% quarter-over-quarter and 5% year-over-year.

The yearly variation was driven by the increased distribution and other expenses by function, largely attributed to the integration of Grupo P.I. Mabe in Mexico. The ratio of other operating expenses to revenues was 16.6% in the second quarter of 2024, which compares to 16.3% in both comparable quarters. Given the aforementioned effects, on a consolidated basis, the company's first quarter EBITDA was $377 million, with a contribution of 62% from pulp, 32% from Softys, and 6% from Biopackaging. Net income totaled $125 million during the period, down from $209 million in the previous quarter and stable compared to the result recorded in the second quarter of 2023.

Now, I would like to turn the presentation over to Claudia, who will provide more details on our results by businesses.

Claudia Cavada
Head of Investor Relations, Empresas CMPC

Thank you, Fernando, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with the pulp business. Pulp production was 1,024,000 tons, decreasing 2% quarter-over-quarter and increasing 4% year-over-year. Out of it, hardwood production was 825,000 tons, down 3% quarter-over-quarter and up 6% year-over-year. The quarterly variation is explained by higher downtimes at pulp mills, mainly at Santa Fe 2, after a general shutdown of 16 days this quarter. Softwood production was 198,000 tons, increasing 4% quarter-over-quarter and decreasing 1% year-over-year. Regarding pulp sales volume, it decreased by 10% quarter-over-quarter and 21% year-over-year, reflecting the impact of the floods in Rio Grande do Sul on port activities in May, along with the weaker demand in some markets.

Year over year, hardwood volume decreased by 25% on lower exports to China and the rest of Asia. In the case of softwood, the year-over-year 1% decrease is the result of a combination of reduced exports to China and increased exports to Europe and the rest of Asia. Pulp prices during the second quarter of the year were, on average, $801 per ton for softwood and $730 per ton for hardwood. This is a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11% for softwood and 16% for hardwood. Compared to the second quarter of last year, prices were higher by 17% for softwood and 33% for hardwood. As a result, revenues for the pulp business totaled $615 million, decreasing 3% quarter-over-quarter and 7% year over year.

Regarding the forestry business, sales volume was 800,000 cubic meters, down 15% quarter-over-quarter, as a result of lower sawlogs and some timber sales. Our shipments were impacted in April and May by a port strike in Coronel. The situation has been normalized since June. With this, revenues for our pulp and forestry business totaled $750 million, decreasing 4% quarter-over-quarter and 8% year-over-year. As part of our strategic plan, and specifically in relation with our competitiveness pillar, we continue to see improvements in cash costs. In terms of cash costs, for hardwood, cash costs reached $230 per ton in the second Q 2024, decreasing 5% quarter-over-quarter and 16% year-over-year. The Q-on-Q reduction was driven by lower wood costs.

There were also reductions in chemicals and labor costs. Cash costs for the year-over-year comparison decreased across all cost lines, especially wood and chemicals. For softwood, cash costs reached $353 per ton in 2Q 2024, decreasing 5% from the $371 per ton recorded in the first Q of 2024, and 10% below the $392 per ton recorded in 2Q 2023. The quarterly variation is mainly due to lower cost of wood. Year-over-year, cash costs also decreased mainly from lower wood costs, and this was accompanied by reductions in chemicals, materials, and labor costs.

EBITDA for the pulp business increased 30% quarter-over-quarter and 61% year-over-year, recording $251 million with an EBITDA margin of 33.5%. The increase in EBITDA is mainly related to higher average selling prices and lower cash costs, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Now, moving to Softys. Revenues were stable compared to the previous quarter and decreased by 3% year-over-year, totaling $878 million. Compared to the pre-previous quarter, tissue paper revenues remained unchanged and decreased by 15% year-over-year. The decline from the previous year is mainly explained due to a lower market activity in the region. This was accompanied by a 2% higher average selling prices in US dollar terms.

In the personal care segment, sales were stable Q-on-Q and increased 20% year-over-year. In the year-over-year comparison, the increase in sales is explained by slightly higher volumes and a 21% price increase. Softys EBITDA for the second Q reached $132 million, with a margin, EBITDA margin of 15.1%. EBITDA decreased 20% quarter-over-quarter and increased 4% year-over-year. The Q-on-Q variation was mainly due to an increase in pulp prices and currency depreciation in Chile, Argentina, and Brazil. In the year-over-year comparison, the 4% increase was driven by the integration of P.I. Mabe in Mexico. In the Biopackaging business, we still see challenges related to a weak construction activity in the markets we serve.

Q-on-Q, sales volume to third parties decreased 2%, mainly due to lower sales in paper sacks and corrugated boxes. This was mainly offset by higher sales in corrugated paper and molded pulp trays. Year-over-year, sales volume increased 6%, driven by boxboard, corrugated paper, and corrugated boxes. Revenues amounted $259 million, representing a 5% quarter-over-quarter decrease, excluding the impact of insurance compensations received in the first Q 2024. This decline is attributed to lower volumes and average selling prices. Year-over-year, revenues decreased 12%, reflecting a lower sales price. As a result, in the second Q of 2024, EBITDA decreased by 27% quarter-over-quarter, excluding the insurance compensation in the first Q 2024, and this decline is associated with the decreased sales and higher raw material costs.

Year-over-year, EBITDA decreased by 4%, and EBITDA margin was 9.3%, down from a 12% recorded in the first Q 2024 and above the 8.5% recorded in the second Q 2023.

Fernando Hasenberg
CFO, Empresas CMPC

Thank you very much, Claudia. Capital expenditures during the second quarter totaled $146 million, in line with the $152 million reported in the first quarter 2024, and decreasing from the $447 million recorded in the second quarter of 2023. The latter relates to the BioCMPC project and acquisition of Grupo P.I. Mabe in Mexico. Regarding free cash flows during the period, there was a net outflow of $22 million compared to an outflow of $176 million in the first quarter of 2024, and $66.663 million outflow in the second quarter of 2023. When comparing quarter-over-quarter, the increased free cash flow is attributed to a lower dividend payment and a tax refund in the second quarter of 2024.

Year over year, the difference referred to the aforementioned BioCMPC project and acquisition in Mexico in the second quarter of 2023. We closed the second quarter of the year with nearly $5.4 billion in total debt. Cash and cash equivalents, including financial investment with short-term maturities, were $658 million, leaving our net debt at $4.761 billion. The net debt to EBITDA ratio closed the quarter at 3.75 times, lower than the 4.03 times in the last quarter, and higher than the 2.29 times we had in June of 2023. As anticipated, we expect this number to continue to improve in the coming quarters.

Regarding our debt profile, the average rate is 4.82%, and the average maturity is 5.4 years. I would like to highlight some important events that occurred during the quarter. In May, severe floods in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, have impacted over 400 municipalities, causing human casualties and significant disruptions in all industries and normal life activities. CMPC has been actively supporting local authorities and affected communities. While our facilities remain intact, the floods affected many of our employees, the communities around our operations, and disrupted road and port infrastructure around Guaíba, affecting, among other things, the shipment of our pulp. Since June, we have been able to ship everything we produced. CMPC's integrated report 2023 was published. It highlights Brazil's leadership in pulp production and growing global interest in sustainable products.

Chairman Luis Felipe Gazitúa emphasized CMPC's commitment to sustainability, innovation, and community engagement. Additionally, Luis Felipe Gazitúa was honored as Engineer of the Year 2024 by the School of Engineers of Chile, recognizing his contributions to development and innovation. Now, I will turn the mic to Claudia for the Q&A session.

Claudia Cavada
Head of Investor Relations, Empresas CMPC

Thank you, Fernando. Please remember that your mic, you can do your questions in the chat box, chat box or just raising your hand. The first question comes from Rafael Barcelos, from Bradesco. Rafael, your mic is open.

Speaker 6

Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. My first question is about pulp markets. Recently we saw a standstill between pulp buyers and sellers, right? And therefore, we are now seeing hardwood pulp prices clocking roughly $650 per ton in China. I just wanted to understand whether pulp buyers have returned to the market after this price drop, or if we will have to see pulp prices dropping further to really see pulp buy activity increasing again. Secondly, my second question here is about leverage and capital allocation. Your net debt to EBITDA ratio remains above your internal policy, right?

So, so I just wanted to understand, I mean, how are you seeing leverage evolving in the coming quarters, and, and how can it affect the decision related to the Natureza Project? Thank you.

Raimundo Varela
CEO of CMPC Pulp, Empresas CMPC

Okay. Bon dia, Rafael. Thank you for your question. I'll take the first one. Yes, it's true that the Chinese activity has been slow over the past two months. They are back now. We are only on the second day of August, and we can confirm that a lot of orders have come through at the price that you have indicated. Softwood remains solid. The demand for softwood significantly stronger than hardwood. It's hard to say what's gonna happen for the future, whether prices will go further down or not. I think what is important to highlight is that global inventories remain below historical level, both in Europe and in China, which is a strong indicator that the market should be relatively firm and stable in terms of prices.

So we believe that from now on, the market should start showing more stability in terms of prices.

Fernando Hasenberg
CFO, Empresas CMPC

Rafael, maybe. Yeah, I will take your second question regarding indebtedness. Indeed, as anticipated, we have reduced our net debt to EBITDA ratio. It was above 4 in the last quarter, now is at 3.75. And we anticipate that next quarter and at the end of the year, probably, it's gonna be within our policy range. Mm-hmm. Regarding the financing for the Natureza Project, we are preparing our balance sheet for that. We are being, we have been very conservative in CapEx, and we will continue to be very-

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

... specific on capital allocation in the coming months, so the balance sheet is gonna be ready for the project? As we have mentioned, having a strong balance sheet is important for us, and in that way, we are preparing the financing structure for the Natureza project.

Speaker 7

Okay, that's, that's great. Thank you.

Claudia Cavada
Head of Investor Relations, Empresas CMPC

Thank you, Rafael. The next question comes from Bank of America. Hi, Guilherme Rosito, your mic is open.

Speaker 8

Hi, everyone. Can you guys hear me?

Claudia Cavada
Head of Investor Relations, Empresas CMPC

Yes.

Speaker 8

Perfect. So thank you for taking my question. My question is on Natureza Project. I know you guys are still in early stages, you have to take it to the board. But just to understand what you guys are seeing, what are you guys expecting in terms of land and forestry CapEx? I mean, as far as understood from the release you guys put out, it was just industrial CapEx you were estimating for now. And what is the incentive price for this project? You know, just to understand what you guys are seeing to the market as well into the future. And then additional question, I know the idea right now is to make it a hardwood, but are you guys considering, like, dissolving pulp or maybe some kind, other, other product coming out of this line? Thank you.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Okay. Yeah. We have been progressing in the Natureza Project. We are quite happy with the progress. We have received the terms of reference approval from the local authorities, so that put us in good shape for progressing. We also keep progressing in the forestry to fulfill the forestry needs. We are about 60% of what we need, and we will continue working on that. The project, we expect that project to go to the board during 2026, and so far, that is... We are maintaining that program. And regarding the type of pulp, it's something we are looking at it, but our base case is that we will produce regular pulp, standard pulp. Mm.

That's what our base case.

Speaker 8

Perfect. Thanks a lot, guys.

Claudia Cavada
Head of Investor Relations, Empresas CMPC

Thanks, Guilherme. We have a next question from Eugênia Ceballos of Morgan Stanley. Eugênia, are you there?

Speaker 9

Yes. Hi, everyone. Good morning. My question is more, if we move towards, Softys and all the tissue segments. So, if you could detail a bit more how you see the competitive environment in Mexico, and how is all that shaping up, that will be helpful. Thank you so much.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Well, thank you, Eugênia, for your question. Just in general, I would say the competitive environment for the tissue segment is important. And Mexico, we see, you know, a competitive investment, a competitive environment. Although I have to say that in case of CMPC, the result we have had in Mexico during the last couple of months, or the last quarter, is very much connected with a drop we suffered in one of our mills. So, it has more to do with that than with the competitive environment. We are not so important tissue production as a percentage of that market.

But in general, we see, you know, our company, you know, competing well and also in a good shape for continue improving margins.

Claudia Cavada
Head of Investor Relations, Empresas CMPC

Okay. Thank you, Eugênia. Now we have a question from Santander. Yuri Pereira, hello. Your mic is open.

Speaker 7

Hi, thanks so much for the opportunity, guys. My first question is, how do you see this shift in volumes to Europe from Asia? If at these levels, you see volumes getting back to Asia, or do you still see this mix? Or, on the other hand, if you see some correction in Europe as well. And my second question is about the outlook for volumes of tissue, CMPC's tissue, and pulp volumes for the second half of the year. Thanks so much.

Raimundo Varela
CEO of CMPC Pulp, Empresas CMPC

The first one, thank you, Yuri, for the question. We don't see, at least for the moment, too much volume shifting from Asia to Europe. I think many producers globally had a significant backlog of shipment to China, specifically. That's proven by the level of inventories globally. We see Europe pretty much following what's happening in China. There is a price correction there. There could be some sort of arbitrage being applied between Asia and Europe, but I don't think it's anything too meaningful that will disrupt the market. I think the markets will continue their gap between Asia and Europe. Asia coming back, there should be a significant volume-

Guilherme Viesi
Commercial Director, CMPC Pulp, Empresas CMPC

... of pulp going back to Asia. So I don't think. I don't see too much arbitrage being applied there.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Okay, second question. Thank you, Enrique, for your question.

Guilherme Viesi
Commercial Director, CMPC Pulp, Empresas CMPC

Yuri.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Sorry, Yuri, for your question. My answer is the following: I would say that in terms of volume, this has been affected during the last quarter, mainly because of strong competition in Brazil. You know, Brazil and Suzano also, they are also in the market and you know, and strongly competing in that market. So I would say, this is in some way affecting, you know, our margins and results in Brazil. Again, I would say it mainly in May, end of April and May, we were affected by the drought in Mexico. And so, and in other markets like Peru, and we see also Argentina with a weaker customer, you know, because of the economic conditions.

I would think that during the second quarter, some of the market could increase our volume, like Mexico, not true in Brazil, and in general, the region is, in my opinion, still affected. So, of course, we are also very much concerned about our margins and result in tissue. So, all of these, you know, a combination of all of these, I would say I've not seen probably a strong recovery in terms of volume during the second quarter-

Guilherme Viesi
Commercial Director, CMPC Pulp, Empresas CMPC

Second semester.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

-second semester. But probably will be bit better compared with the first semester. But very much concentrated in having a profitable year.

Guilherme Viesi
Commercial Director, CMPC Pulp, Empresas CMPC

I'm not sure whether you also asked for the pulp volumes in second half of the year. I will comment anyway. I think our volumes of pulp in Q2 were a bit slow, lower than what we expected, mainly because of the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul that created some logistical issues that are already solved. So that pulp is being shipped. And we also have quite a heavy maintenance for our annual shutdowns in our mills. So we have Guaíba 2 in September, Santa Fe 1 in September, and then we have Pacífico in October and Guaíba 1 in November. So it's quite a heavy maintenance season for us, second half of the year.

So therefore, our volumes will come to normal, whereas stocks, no, and our sales volume will come to normal.

Speaker 13

Thank you, Yuri.

Guilherme Viesi
Commercial Director, CMPC Pulp, Empresas CMPC

That's great. Thanks, guys.

Speaker 13

Okay. So thank you, and we have the next question from Goldman Sachs. Hi, Henrique Marques . Your mic is open.

Speaker 10

Hi, guys. Thank you for taking my question. Just a follow-up here on the tissue volume. I mean, I understand the rising competition can impact volumes, but I wanted to understand the impact on costs and then impact for margins in the tissue business. I know you guys want to keep margins around 15%-20%, but I don't know, with this rising competition, especially in Brazil, do you guys see that as possible, especially for this year? Just another question on the Rio Grande do Sul situation. Just want to make sure if that's resolved for the rest of the year, are you guys still seeing any impact, especially on logistics? Thank you.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Thanks, Enrique, for your question. Yes, as we have been mentioning, our focus is profitability in Softys, in our tissue business. Therefore, we will continue working on that. Of course, there is a lag in cost, and the increase in pulp prices has been affecting this quarter our tissue costs, that's part of our integration model. But also, the devaluation of some important currencies where we operate. The Chilean devaluation, Chilean peso devaluation, the real in Brazil, same thing in Argentina.

So, all those things combined have been affecting our cost, but we are happy with the 15% EBITDA margin we have today, and working to have that as a, I would say, as a sort of floor, and from there increasing our profitability. Mm-hmm. Regarding the Rio Grande do Sul situation, I mean, as you know, this has been a extremely severe and dramatic situation, no? In the whole state. And I think our people has been affected. We had about 185 people that was affected. Their houses were affected. We were able to support our people and also support the community. So that's the most important thing. I think the state will continue, I think, recovering, no?

For many months to come. There's normality has not yet arrived, I mean, the airport is still closed, et cetera, et cetera. I think people has been showing their energy, you know, and their motivation, and I think everybody is sort of are rising up. And we can feel it from our own team that have show enormous energy, not just to maintain our operations, but also to-

Guilherme Viesi
Commercial Director, CMPC Pulp, Empresas CMPC

... to you know to help in the communities et cetera. And we see that also across the state huh? So we want to recognize that tremendous effort that our people have done, and in general all the people from Rio Grande do Sul to rise up after this huge calamity yeah. And regarding the impact in our operation for second half, no we don't see and we have to spend more money in to repair roads you know where our forestry trucks go through that kind of things. And making some adjustments in our inland logistics but nothing really of size.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Just to complement, Raimundo, just to mention, as he said, you know, we have a very much committed team operating Brazil. But also I wanted. I want to add that our assets were not affected at all. Fortunately, the mill is running very normal, in a very normal way. Of course, during the flooding moments, there were many of our forest operation that were stopped, but our contractors and everybody is back since end of May in a very normal way. And so we are receiving the wood that we need for operating. And logistics, you know, it is back since a month and a half ago, and without problems, so supplying our customer in a very regular way.

Speaker 10

Got it. Thank you. Just a follow-up, if I may. On the pulp business, I think, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the plan was to deliver a 20-25 ton decrease in cash costs compared to the average from 2023. We've seen cash costs decreasing. I just want to know, can we expect any further improvement from current levels? Should we see that flattish, stable levels through the remainder of the year? Just wanted to understand where you guys are seeing for cash costs in the pulp business.

Guilherme Viesi
Commercial Director, CMPC Pulp, Empresas CMPC

Thank you for recognizing our progress on cost. It's something that we have put a lot of effort and energy. It's a program that will be with us for several years, you know? I think we are progressing extremely well in our Guaíba mill, in cost. In the Chile mills as well, maybe a little bit slower, but we're also on the right track, huh? So yeah, I would think that you guys should expect some improvement in our costs in the following quarters, you know, and years. It's again, as I said, it's a program, one of our pillars of our strategy is competitiveness, no?

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Claudia Cavada
Head of Investor Relations, Empresas CMPC

Thank you, Enrique. Please ask, raise your hand if you have another question. I see here Alfonso Salazar from Scotiabank. Alfonso, hi. Alfonso?

Speaker 11

Can you hear me? Hello, hello. Well, I don't know if you can hear me. The question that I have is related to the cost structure and in the pulp business. Can you remind us how much of your costs is in U.S. dollars, for softwood and hardwood, please?

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Thanks, Alfonso, for the question. It's not that easy to be answered. More than differentiating between softwood and hardwood, I will start differentiating between Chile and Brazil. In Chile, as a rule of thumb, 70% of our costs are in dollars, and in Brazil, it's the other way around. It's probably 70% in reais and 30% in dollars. But of course, when you do a double click in Chile, we do buy some wood in the market.

So when you compare softwood and hardwood, the case of hardwood, some of the wood, the hard pulpwood is sold in dollars in Chile because it can be exported, and it's not the case in softwood, huh? So when we buy pine in Chile, that wood is traded in pesos. So the percentage of pesos in the softwood cost is a little bit higher than in hardwood, huh? That's a very general explanation, but I think it's a good way of looking at that.

Speaker 11

Yeah, that's very helpful. Thank you. Just a follow-up on China's market, and more than in the short term, what do you think... And I want to relate the question on China to the Natureza project, because what we see is that there are some announcements of new pulp mills to be developed over the coming years. And what the market is expecting, a continuation of demand over the coming years. What could go wrong in China? That would be the – that could, you know, put on hold the project in Natureza. What is your expectation, and what could be the risk, the major risk that you see in terms of demand in China?

Guilherme Viesi
Commercial Director, CMPC Pulp, Empresas CMPC

... Thank you for the question, Alfonso. This is Raimundo. I think, well, first, I think we have a very diversified portfolio of sales, you know, in our pulp business, and we plan to continue that way. So some of the Natureza volume will go to China, but a lot of the volume will be diversified across all our sales in the world. So that's first. Second, I think we believe that China will continue to grow, growth in their tissue, so their paper demand. And some of that will be supplied with domestic production, you know, as it has happened. But I think they will need, they will continue to need large amounts of imported pulp, you know?

I think we see it's very difficult for them to really be able to fulfill all their needs with local production, so I think market pulp will be needed. But I think in complement with locally produced pulp, with imported ships, we know that ships is also not that easily available around the world. The non-availability of ships has been mostly coming down or stable, not definitely not going up. So again, we are optimistic, you know, about the prospect for the pulp demand in the next years.

Speaker 11

Okay. Just a final question on trade. What we are seeing is, you know, trade tariffs in many other industries, especially in some industries that, you know, are related to problems of overcapacity in China, like steel or high technology like EVs. And I don't think that at this time we are thinking that the paper business would be, you know, affected that badly as we see in other industries. But how do you see the situation in the case of China, especially just thinking in the case of paper? You know, they produce too much paper for exports. How that can change over time, you know, your base of core customers going forward?

Because there is a lot of capacity in China to produce paper there and then export from China. Is that something that could change because of this trade in the future, because of trade restrictions, or how do you see this unfolding?

Guilherme Viesi
Commercial Director, CMPC Pulp, Empresas CMPC

That's a good question. I think, I mean, paper is a very basic product, you know, and it goes to very basic needs. So we don't see paper being affected by trade tariffs. We really think they will not be affected. And I think the Chinese exports on paper are... They are relevant to complement. I mean, the paper players in China, they depend on the local market, I think, mainly, and they complement with exports, you know? So I think when export are kind of affected, like right now, because of the high freights, you see a reduction, you know, in paper export. But they don't put the mills to export, no? That's... I mean, they don't make enough money.

The economics are just not there for that to be the rationale behind. So, again, we don't think that this should affect the paper industry.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thank you.

Claudia Cavada
Head of Investor Relations, Empresas CMPC

Thank you, Alfonso. We have a question from Itaú, Marcelo Furlan. Marcelo, hello, are you there?

Speaker 12

Hi, everyone. Can you hear me?

Claudia Cavada
Head of Investor Relations, Empresas CMPC

Yes.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Hi, guys. Thank you for taking my question here. My question is related to the capital structure and capital allocation moving forward. You guys ended this quarter with a financial leverage around 3.8 times, and here, you know, we are having these downside pulp cycles for the second half. So I'd like to understand, what are the main strategies here to maintain, you know, the financial leverage at a still healthy levels going forward, and also the main strategies regarding the debt profile for the company? And looking for the medium term, you guys have the Natureza Project, which will then require some higher CapEx disbursements going forward.

So, until there, I would like to understand what are the main capital allocations for the company until the CapEx for the potential Natureza project goes to initiate? So these are my questions here, guys, related to the capital structure and also to the capital allocation for the medium term. Thank you.

Guilherme Viesi
Commercial Director, CMPC Pulp, Empresas CMPC

Thanks, Marcelo, for your question. As I mentioned, we expect for the end of the year for the net debt to EBITDA ratio to be closer to three times, and from then to continue to improve until 2026, when we should take the project, the Natureza project, for board approval. As we have mentioned, and it was published on the press release, still the CapEx for Natureza is in the range of $4.5 billion. And we are working with that number. And in the meantime, as I also mentioned, we have been very restrictive in capital allocation. We have been reducing, and we have been very...

More selective on projects going forward. Our estimation for this year is that CapEx is gonna be more in the close to $600 million, lower, much lower than what we had in the last couple of years. And the number should be in that area in 2025 as well, so we can be ready for the Natureza Project.

Speaker 12

... Okay, that was helpful. Thank you so much, guys.

Claudia Cavada
Head of Investor Relations, Empresas CMPC

Thanks, Marcelo. I see another question related to financial, the leverage. So what's a comfortable, comfortable leverage level to start the Natureza Project?

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Thanks for the question. It will depend on how we define to finance the project, and that hasn't been defined yet, right? But we should be in the range of in the area of 2x net debt to EBITDA, probably.

Speaker 12

The range of our-

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Hmm?

Speaker 12

Our po, in our policy.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Yeah, and, yeah, remember that our internal policy is to be between 2.5 and 3.5 times.

Speaker 12

Yeah.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

But to start the project, we should probably be below that range.

Speaker 12

Yes.

Claudia Cavada
Head of Investor Relations, Empresas CMPC

Okay, thank you. Reading the questions here in the chat box, more questions on what has been the performance in the business of Softys in Argentina, opportunities, and upsides, given that there are more opportunity, given some RIGI benefits for companies and et cetera. Argentina, in general.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

I can mention Argentina, if you want. Softys in Argentina, we have had actually a good year for Softys in Argentina. It has to be with the increase in prices during the first quarter, and still with the lower costs because of inventories at lower costs. So still, you know, getting results in Argentina. Although, as I mentioned before, and the customer is much weaker to the... Of course, you know, the situation in Argentina. It's good news that inflation is getting better, but we see a second semester more affected in Argentina. This is the answer for that. So at the end, as a summary, I mean, we had the opportunity to increase prices, and many other companies did that because of the actual problem with the cost.

We increased importantly prices, and it means for us that the first semester has been a good one. So this is my... And regarding competition in Brazil, I guess I already mentioned that there's more capacity in Brazil, you know, starting with new paper machines. Also, Suzano consolidating its tissue business during the year. So I would say we are facing more competition in Brazil, in tissue, especially looking, you know, at price level today in the market, that is a very low one.

Claudia Cavada
Head of Investor Relations, Empresas CMPC

Okay. I don't see more questions here. So, just to thank you all for joining us today, for your questions and participation, and have a good day.

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