Empresas CMPC S.A. (SNSE:CMPC)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Nov 20, 2023

Fernando Hasenberg
CFO, Empresas CMPC

Hello everyone, and welcome to Empresas CMPC Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Webinar. I am Fernando Hasenberg, CFO of the company, and joining me today we have Francisco Ruiz-Tagle, CEO of CMPC, Guilherme Viesi, Chief Pulp Commercial Officer, and Claudia Cavada, our Investor Relations Officer. Please note that the statements made today during the presentation and Q&A may include forward-looking statements to assist you in understanding our expectation for future performance. These statements are subject to some risk and could cause actual results and events to differ materially. I will start with some highlights of the quarter. Third quarter sales were close to $2 billion. EBITDA was $264 million, and net income was $84 million. Softys business showed higher EBITDA, totaling $157 million, increasing 24% quarter-over-quarter, and 128% year-over-year.

This improvement is explained by the integration of Grupo P.I. Mabe in May 2023. Higher prices, low costs, and better sales volumes. The pulp business generated an EBITDA of $108 million, decreasing 30% quarter-over-quarter and 79% year-over-year, driven basically by weaker pulp prices. At the same time, biopackaging generated $18 million of EBITDA during the period, decreasing 28% quarter-over-quarter and 48% year-over-year, due to lower prices and lower demand. Our sales in the third quarter were roughly $2 billion, decreasing 1% quarter-over-quarter, which is explained by lower revenues in pulp and biopackaging businesses, both related to lower selling price and lower pulp sales volumes.

Compared to the third quarter of last year, revenues decreased by 5%, mainly in part due to lower sales prices, partially offset by an increase in sales volumes. In biopackaging, there was a drop in both prices and volumes. Operating costs reached $1.4 billion, remaining stable quarter-over-quarter and increasing 12% compared to the same period last year, representing 70% of revenues, compared to 69% in second quarter of 2023, and 59% in the third quarter of 2022. The increase in operating costs compared to the third quarter 2022 are related to the pulp and Softys businesses. In the first case, the increase is mainly associated with higher wood and labor costs. In Softys, it is a result of the integration of Grupo P.I. Mabe in Mexico, which began in May 2023.

Other operating expenses were $330 million for the quarter, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter, at 30% higher year-on-year, representing 17% of total revenues, compared to 16% in the second quarter of 2023, and 12% in 3Q 2022. The year-on-year variation is explained by higher distribution at the base of expenses, subject to inflation and currency appreciation occurred in our business units. On a consolidated basis, the company first quarter EBITDA reached $264 million, decreasing 8% compared to the previous quarter, and 54% compared to the same quarter last year. Net income reached $84 million, decreasing from the $125 million registered in the second quarter 2023, and the $3,309 million registered in the 3Q 2022.

Both decreases are explained by the lower EBITDA generation that I explained before. Now, I would like to turn the presentation over to Claudia, who will provide more details on our results by businesses.

Claudia Cavada
Investor Relations Officer, Empresas CMPC

Thank you, Fernando, and good morning, everyone. I start with the pulp business. Pulp production was 1,079,000 tons, increasing by 10% quarter-over-quarter and down 2% year-over-year. Hardwood production was 869,000 tons, growing 11% quarter-over-quarter and decreasing 1% year-over-year. The quarterly variation is explained by lower maintenance at the partners, in line with the annual maintenance plan. Softwood production was 209,000 tons, increasing by 5% quarter-over-quarter, whilst decreasing 4% year-over-year. Regarding pulp sales volume, quarter-over-quarter decreased by 2%. This is explained by lower sales in hardwood, partially offset by higher volumes in softwood. In comparison, year-over-year, sales volume increased 9% because of higher sales in both fibers.

In terms of cash costs, for softwood, cash costs reached $360 per ton in the third quarter of 2023, decreasing 8% from the $392 per ton recorded in the second Q 2023, and increasing 1% year-over-year. The quarterly variation is due to lower cost of wood, chemicals, and other materials. For hardwood, cash costs reached $250 per ton in the third quarter of 2023, decreasing 8% quarter-over-quarter and increasing 11% year-over-year. The quarter-over-quarter decrease is attributed to lower costs of chemicals, wood, and energy. When compared year-over-year, the increase was mainly due to higher wood and labor costs.

Pulp prices during the third quarter of the year were $646 per ton for softwood, and $518 per ton for hardwood, both decreasing from the second Q 2023 by 5% and 6% respectively. Compared to the third quarter of last year, prices were also lower by 33% for softwood and 31% for hardwood. As a result, revenues for the pulp business totaled $575 million, decreasing 13% quarter-over-quarter, as well as 31% year-on-year. Regarding the forestry business, sales volume was 1,001,000 cubic meters, down 10% quarter-over-quarter, as a result of lower pulpwood, sawlogs and millwork sales. This was offset partly by higher saw timber sales, which is explained by the incorporation of Powell Valley Millwork in the U.S.

With this, revenues for our pulp and forestry business totaled $742 million, decreasing 9% compared to the previous quarter, and 27% below when compared to the last year same period. EBITDA decreased 30% quarter-over-quarter, and 79% year-over-year to $108 million, with an EBITDA margin of 14.6%. The decrease in EBITDA generation in both cases was caused by the declining pulp prices in the international markets. Now moving to Softys. Revenues increased on both quarter-over-quarter and year-on-year, being up by 8% and 27% respectively, totaling $978 million. This occurred due to higher sales in the personal care segment by 30% quarter-over-quarter, and 61% year-over-year.

Tissue paper revenues decreased by 4% quarter-over-quarter, while improved 10% year-over-year. Tissue paper quarter-over-quarter was 1% up in volumes, with higher figures from Brazil, Argentina, Peru, and Uruguay, offset by lower volumes in Mexico. Year-over-year, an increase of 3% in volumes is explained by higher figures in Brazil, given the consolidation of Carta Fabril. Personal care volumes increased in all segments, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, mainly driven by the consolidation of Grupo P.I. Mabe in Mexico, and growth in Brazil and Chile. Softys EBITDA for the third quarter increased from the comparable quarters, reaching $157 million, with a margin of 16.1%. This is explained in both cases by higher revenues. In the Biopackaging business, quarter-over-quarter, sales volume to third parties increased 3%.

The quarterly increase is attributed to higher corrugated paper and corrugated boxes. Year-over-year, volumes increased 6%, driven by lower sales in boxboard, paper sacks, and other papers, being partly offset by an increase in corrugated paper, which reflects the recovery of production following a sinister in 2022. Average sales prices decreased in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year by 14% and 17% respectively, reflecting the still weak market for packaging. As an outcome, revenues decreased by 6% quarter-over-quarter and 13% year-over-year, totaling $275 million.

In the third Q 2023, EBITDA decreased by 28% quarter-over-quarter, and 48% year-over-year, reaching $18 million with a margin of 6.6%, decreasing against the 8.5% in the second Q 2023, and 10.9% in the third Q 2022. The quarterly decrease is mainly through lower average sales prices. The yearly outcome is explained by lower revenues, higher unitary costs, and higher administration and sales expenses.

Fernando Hasenberg
CFO, Empresas CMPC

Thank you very much, Claudia. Capital expenditures during the third quarter totaled $243 million, decreasing from the $675 million recorded in the second quarter of 2023, and increasing from the $179 million of 3Q 2022. Remember that in the second quarter, we had the purchase of Grupo P.I. Mabe in Mexico. In the third quarter, the main disbursements are related to the Bio CMPC project, the purchase of Powell Valley in the United States, and maintenance. In the third quarter of 2023, the free cash flow was positive at $87 million, compared to the -$675 million we had in the second quarter 2023, and -$70 million we have in 3Q 2022.

On top of what I explained before, the higher quarter-over-quarter cash flow is attributed to lower dividends and lower income tax payments, as well as a reduction in working capital. The lower year-on-year result is also explained by the reduction in working capital, dividends, and income tax payment. We closed the second quarter of the year with $5.2 billion in total debt, and cash of $753 million, leaving our net debt at $4.4 billion, increasing compared to the previous period in $76 million. The net debt to EBITDA ratio closed the quarter at 2.83x , higher than the 2.29, and the 1.83x we had in the second quarter 2023, and the 3Q 2022 respectively.

This ratio is in line with our internal policy range, which goes from 2.5x- 3.5x . Regarding our net profile, the average interest rate is at 4.7%, and the average maturity is 5.8 years. I would like to highlight two relevant events we had during the quarter. In October, we hosted our Investor Day with more than 80 investors, where our CEO, Francisco Ruiz-Tagle, and other company leaders presented the progress of our strategy 2030. We also had a visit to our Softys mill in Talagante. I would like to comment that according to the plan and within budget, on November tenth, the Bio CMPC project operation commenced in Brazil.

This project expands production capacity by 350,000 tons per year, reduces the production cost, and enhances the mill's environmental standards by decreasing greenhouse emissions, minimizing the use of water, among other improvements. With this, we conclude the presentation, and I will hand it over to Claudia to start with the Q&A. Thank you very much.

Claudia Cavada
Investor Relations Officer, Empresas CMPC

Thanks, Fernando. We will now begin our Q&A section. Remember, we have here Francisco Ruiz-Tagle, our CEO, and Guilherme Viesi, Commercial Director for pulp, available for your questions. To ask a question, please raise your hand or type your question in the chat section of the platform. The first question comes from Camila Wagner, from Bradesco. Camila, I will turn your.

Camila Wagner
Analyst, Bradesco BBI

Can you hear me? Hello. So thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I was just wondering, I'd like to understand if you intend to follow Suzano's recent price hike announcement for hardwood in key markets? And what's your view on this, on the implementation of these price hikes considering demand has somewhat cooled off in recent weeks in China. And the second one, if you could provide some updates on the Mabe integration, how are synergies evolving? So those are my questions. Thank you.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Good morning, Camila. I'll take the first one. Well, we found ourselves in a quarter with very good level of inventories. As a matter of fact, our inventories are below historical level, below optimal levels.

Fernando Hasenberg
CFO, Empresas CMPC

The market-

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

The market is showing some demand that is rather stable, I would say, globally. So we see an opportunity to continue with our price increases. We don't comment on the prices of our competition, but we indeed see an opportunity to continue with this upward price trends, given the situation of our inventories globally and the situation of the global demand. So yeah, we see an opportunity for further price increases.

Fernando Hasenberg
CFO, Empresas CMPC

Camila, I will take your second question on about the integration of Mabe in Mexico. We start the integration process in May, June. As a matter of fact, our corporate office now, for instance, is already set in the city of Puebla. We used to have our offices in Monterrey. Now we are located in Puebla, at the Mabe's headquarters. So, the results we have been capturing already some of the synergies we were expecting, so we are very happy so far with the integration. It is underway and as has the in the same way it was scheduled.

We are very happy with that.

Camila Wagner
Analyst, Bradesco BBI

Okay, thank you.

Claudia Cavada
Investor Relations Officer, Empresas CMPC

Okay, our next question comes from Marcio, Marcio Farid, Goldman Sachs. Marcio, your mic is open. Marcio? Marcio? We cannot hear him. Okay, for now, we will go to the next question. Regarding the Bio CMPC expansion, what is the guidance for production and volume sales for 2024?

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Well, thank you for the question, Rodrigo.

Guilherme Viesi
Chief Pulp Commercial Officer, Empresas CMPC

Just say, as you know, we are just starting the project BioCMPC. I well inform you that we started almost 10 days ago producing, and we are seeing BioCMPC. We are now in the learning curve stage. Out of these 350,000 tons next year, well, my answer actually is more on the line that we should be producing 100% of the total production by August next year, around August, September next year. This is the point where we are, you know, reaching the design capacity of the mill.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Perhaps I can add regarding sales. Of course, now during 2023, we had a large shutdown to start up the project, so we decreased about 150,000 tons in production, and we slowly increased that towards next year. So the net additional volume that we forecast to sell, building up all the inventories in the pipeline worldwide, is something around between 50,000 and 100,000 tons extra sales, not production.

Claudia Cavada
Investor Relations Officer, Empresas CMPC

Okay, we have one more question related to the EBITDA and the CapEx associated of the forestry business, excluding pulp?

Guilherme Viesi
Chief Pulp Commercial Officer, Empresas CMPC

Thank you, Horacio, for the question. It's a trick question because we see our forest business as part of an integrated process. So we don't publish this figure. Our forestry base is the source of the fiber for both the wood product and the pulp product. When we look at our numbers, we look at them on an integrated basis.

Claudia Cavada
Investor Relations Officer, Empresas CMPC

Okay, and now a question related to CapEx in general, CapEx guidance of 2024, and how the company is thinking about M&A in the short or medium term?

Guilherme Viesi
Chief Pulp Commercial Officer, Empresas CMPC

CapEx for next year, we have a big, still a big carryover from the projects we have been executing, this year. On top of that, we also have, the plantations. Historically, we invest about $200 million in establishing new plantation or basically to replace what we harvest every year. So with all that, the CapEx guidance for next year should be in the range of $700 million. That's something we will be working still on the next couple of months, of course, depending on the financial results of the company.

Claudia Cavada
Investor Relations Officer, Empresas CMPC

Good. Now let's try to connect ma-

Guilherme Viesi
Chief Pulp Commercial Officer, Empresas CMPC

In terms of, if we are thinking about M&A in the short, medium term, we have to say that, of course, the company is always open to see opportunities, and we have a very clear defined, very clear strategies, you know, focus. But, we are still, you know, working on consolidation, of some of the last, M&As, like we have done in Brazil, Mexico. Mainly in those countries, we have acquired, tissue businesses and personal care business. And also, we acquired, this year, as it was said before, Powell Valley in the United States, which is a wood product operation, a small one, but, we are still consolidating that and in a process of, probably taking more opportunities on the wood product business in the United States.

Claudia Cavada
Investor Relations Officer, Empresas CMPC

Mm-hmm. Okay. Now we go with Marcio Farid from Goldman Sachs. Marcio, your mic is open.

Marcio Farid
VP, Goldman Sachs

Yes. Thank you. Thank you.

Claudia Cavada
Investor Relations Officer, Empresas CMPC

Mm-hmm.

Marcio Farid
VP, Goldman Sachs

Sorry for, sorry for the issue earlier. My mic was not working. Hope, hope it's fine now. Thanks a lot for opportunity. I have a couple of follow-up questions. Firstly, on the cost side, I think Guilherme was very clear in terms of how we should think about incremental sales volumes from Bio CMPC project next year. But how should we think about cost? I think, according to our numbers, at least we saw around 4% quarter-on-quarter decline. Obviously, those fuel oil prices have been all over the place, but at least chemicals has shown a good deflationary momentum in the past few quarters. So, remind us, I mean, fourth quarter, you have the stoppage of Bio CMPC, next year, the benefits of Bio CMPC, and then all the commodities price movement.

How should we think about cost as we move into the fourth quarter and especially into 2024, please? Secondly, Guilherme, if you can provide us a little bit of feedback from your recent conversations. Obviously, London Pulp Week a couple of weeks ago was quite interesting time for the market as well. You did mention that you still see some support.

F or the recent announced price hikes or potentially more momentum, but if you can provide us some more details on how you're seeing the different markets on supply and demand. And maybe lastly, on Softys, if you can also provide some details on per region basis, and especially Mexico and Brazil, on how you're seeing supply and demand outlook for tissue following, you know, volatile years during and post-pandemic as well. Sorry, a lot of questions, but thanks a lot for the opportunity.

Guilherme Viesi
Chief Pulp Commercial Officer, Empresas CMPC

Thank you, Marcio. I will take your first question regarding costs. Yes, as we just published, our third quarter costs, cash costs, in fact, were about 8% in both fiber, in short fiber, and long fiber, hardwood and softwood. Still, those costs are about 8% above what we had in the same period last year, so we still have some room to make improvements. Those improvements, as you mentioned, of course, are related to the reduction of some of our chemicals on other raw materials. But also because of the efficiencies we have encountered in our own operations. We have been working heavily on looking for improving our operations, improving the consumption of most of the raw materials.

So we are very happy also with that, with the of how that has developed. In the coming months, we still have some benefits to capture, so we expect also costs to continue to decline as most of commodities are still declining. So we still have some room to capture more savings there. And just to add some, Marcio, by next year, 2024, will not be, you know, we are in a learning curve stage of this Bio CMPC. And you all have to consider that Bio CMPC will be 350,000 tons over almost 2.4 million tons.

So the impact, it will be in a part of the whole production. But next year probably will not be, you know, a good year for seeing what is the real impact about reducing cost of this new product that for sure will be positively impacting the whole operation of Brazil.

Francisco Ruiz-Tagle
CEO, Empresas CMPC

Marcio, good. Yeah, thanks for the question. Well, CMPC really has a very long-term customer base worldwide. There are customers that we work with for 20, 25, 30 years. So it's more of a matter of sitting down and renewing volumes, commercial conditions. We see really—we're not concerned about the volume that we will renew next year, even the incremental part that we're gonna have to contract next year. It's more of an optimization, let's say, if you will, in terms of segmentation, market mix, and, and, and all of that. I would say, all in all, Marcio, I left London slightly happier than when I came in, so a bit more optimistic after having all the discussions. Obviously, you can have some difficult discussions in London. It's to be expected.

There's always the discussion of a slight increase in terms of replacing inflation and all that. But all in all, as I said before, I see a healthy demand worldwide. We see no issues in allocating our full production for next year, and this is where we are working at the moment. So slightly more optimistic than when I came in.

Guilherme Viesi
Chief Pulp Commercial Officer, Empresas CMPC

Thank you very much. In connection with the your question about Softys, and what is happening mainly in Brazil and Mexico. In terms of margins, actually, we're an open by markets, but I can tell you that, as of today, the EBITDA margin of Softys is in the range of 16%, which is very close to our target in that business. And then, so the challenge there is, you know, to keep this, you know, in the future. In terms of what is happening with the demand in the main market where we are participating, I have to say that still, you know, we have had a good year for Softys, mainly because of a

We could, you know, make this business more profitable in terms of a, because of mainly because of the, better costs and fibers and, a good study about, increasing prices in, in different markets, and also because of the, the correlation of some currencies, so it's helped us in, in having a, a better business. But in general term, we are taking a very good positions in terms of, market share, mainly in Brazil, now in Mexico, and personal care. So this is also, a good position for CMPC. But, speaking about the demand, looking to the future, still challenges. So we see that the region still will be affected by the, by high inflation, you know, situation in general.

And so there are some countries where we have businesses that still, you know, some pressures on the demand side.

Marcio Farid
VP, Goldman Sachs

Thanks a lot.

Guilherme Viesi
Chief Pulp Commercial Officer, Empresas CMPC

You're welcome.

Claudia Cavada
Investor Relations Officer, Empresas CMPC

Okay. No more questions for today, so thank you all for joining us today in this earnings presentation, and I hope you have a great day.

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