Colbún S.A. (SNSE:COLBUN)
Chile flag Chile · Delayed Price · Currency is CLP
130.50
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May 14, 2026, 4:00 PM CLT
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Feb 2, 2024

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Hello to everyone, and welcome to the Colbún Q4 2023 earnings review call. My name is Miguel Alarcón, I'm the company's CFO. Joining me today are Soledad Errázuriz, Finance Manager, and Macarena Güell, Investor Relations Analyst. I hope that you have received our earnings report and an earnings review presentation that we have prepared to complement the analysis of our peers. Otherwise, you can download them from the investor section of our website. The agenda for today, on slide three, is as follows: We will begin talking about the highlights of this year, to then analyze in detail this quarter's results. After that, we will provide an update on our growth opportunities. Following the presentation, there will be time to participate in a Q&A session. Now, let's go to slide number four to review the highlights of this year. First, regarding the operation of our power plants.

During the Q2, Fenix Power carried out its scheduled major maintenance, which extended for 70 days. On January 20, 2024, Unit 1 of the Nehuenco complex restarted operations after it began fire on August 4, 2023, while it was undergoing major maintenance. Throughout 2023, the company's operations in Chile faced various weather events that affected the entire country. However, the effective communication and the timely and constant engagement strategy with different public entities and affected communities allowed mitigating these contingencies effects. Second, with respect to the dividend distribution during the year. On May 12, a dividend payment of $139 million was recorded.

This payment is comprised of, one, a definitive dividend of $64 million, which together with the provisional dividend paid in December 2022, amounted to $84 million, to reach $148 million, equivalent to 50% of the profit according to the group's policy. Second, an additional dividend charged to the previous fiscal year profits of $75 million. The total dividend distribution charged to the 2022 fiscal year amounted to $223 million. On December 15, a payment of additional dividend of $170 million was recorded, charged to the profit for the year. Third, on April 24, the company received $116 million from Alfa Desarrollo S.p.A, corresponding to a final price adjustment associated with the Colbún Transmisión S.A shares sale. Finally, regarding our commercial strategy.

During 2023, energy sales contracts were signed in Chile with 76 clients for an annual total of 1,448 GWh. Among the main contracts signed are the renewable supply contract for Compañía Minera Doña Inés de Collahuasi, for a total of up to 650 GWh per year, for 12 years, starting from January 2024 onwards, and the supply contract for Aguas Pacífico, for a total of up to 280 GWh per year, for 10 years, starting from January 2024. In Peru, we were awarded supply contracts with 20 clients for 363 MW per year. The supply contract with Compañía Minera Volcan stands out, providing up to a total of 114 MW per year for 10 years, starting from February 2024 onwards.

Additionally, it is worth noting the commencement of the supply contract with Generadora Eléctrica Illimani, for 121 MW, for the period January to December of 2023. Now, please go to slide number five to review the main consolidated figures of the year. Consolidated EBITDA for 2023 reached $714 million, increasing 6% compared to the $763 million EBITDA during 2022. Due to, first, lower EBITDA in Chile, primarily explained by a decline in operating income resulting from lower energy and capacity sales in the spot market, partially offset by a decrease in diesel and gas consumption due to a lower generation with these fuels.

And second, higher raw materials and consumable use costs in Peru, mainly due to the increase in energy and capacity purchases in the spot market, primarily due to the lower generation throughout the year and the entry into force of new contracts with unregulated clients. The company recorded a profit for the year of $404 million, compared to the $311 million profit recorded in 2022, mainly due to the final price adjustment associated with the Colbún—with the sale of Colbún Transmisión S.A. As of December 31, the company holds $1,031 million of cash and net debt to EBITDA ratio is 1.5 times. Now, I return to Soledad, who will speak about the main drivers of the results for the Q4 of 2023.

Soledad Errázuriz
Financial Operations Manager, Colbún

Thank you, Miguel, and hello to everyone. Now, please continue to slide seven for our typical sales and generation volume analysis in Chile. Total generation for the quarter decreased 19% compared to the Q4 of 2022, mainly due to the lower thermal generation, primarily explained by the fire at Unit 1 of the Nehuenco complex. This effect was partially offset by the higher hydroelectric generation of the quarter, given the improved hydrology conditions. Physical sales during the quarter reached 2.9 TWh, lower than Q4 of 2022, mainly due to, first, lower sales to the spot market, explained by the lower generation during the quarter, and second, lower sales to unregulated clients, primarily explained by the reduction in consumption of mining clients.

This effect was partially offset by an increase in physical sales to regulated clients, explained by the expiration of contracts between other generation companies and distribution companies, resulting in a higher pro rata for those contracts still in force. Spot market volumes during the Q4 of 2023 recorded net purchases of 141 GWh, compared to the net sales of 448 GWh in the Q4 of 2022. This variation is mainly explained by the lower generation previously mentioned. Now, please continue to slide eight to analyze the EBITDA in Chile for the quarter.

EBITDA in Chile reached $137 million in this quarter, decreasing by 40% compared to the EBITDA of $226 million in the same quarter of the previous year, primarily due to the lower operating income, explained by, first, lower sales to unregulated clients, mainly due to the lower average sales price and to the lower demand from mining clients. And second, lower sales in the spot market, mainly explained by a lower thermal generation. The lower operating income was partially offset by lower raw materials and consumables used costs, mainly driven by the decrease in gas consumption costs associated with the lower generation from these fuel sources. Now, please continue to slide nine, for our physical sales and generation balance and ITP in Peru. Total generation of the period increased 25% compared to the Q4 of 2022, reaching 900 GWh.

This lower generation is mainly explained to, first, the lower economic dispatch, explained by lower market prices due to an improvement in hydrology, and second, the corrective maintenance of one of the turbines of the power plant, which meant it was out of service for approximately five days during the quarter. Physical sales during this quarter reached 997 GWh, decreasing by 16% compared to the Q4 of 2022, primarily due to lower physical sales in the spot market, explained by the lower generation of same power plant. This was partially offset by higher sales to unregulated clients, mainly due to increase in the number of customers in this segment compared to the previous year.

Spot market volumes during this quarter recorded net sales of 89 GWh, compared to net sales of 556 GWh during the Q4 of 2022, due to the lower generation of the power plant previously mentioned, and to an increase in consumption by unregulated clients during the entry into force of new supply contracts. Now, please continue to slide 10, to analyze the EBITDA in Peru for the Q4 of 2023. EBITDA in Peru reached $24 million in the Q4 of 2023, decreasing by 28% compared to the EBITDA of $34 million recorded in the same quarter of the previous year, mainly due to a decrease in operating income, explained by lower sales in the spot market as a result of the lower generation of the period.

This effect was partially offset by lower raw materials and consumables used, mainly due to lower purchases in the spot market, explained by the lower average purchase price, despite the increase in physical purchases during the quarter. Now, please continue to slide 11, for the consolidated non-operating income and net income analysis. Non-operating income this quarter recorded a loss of $28 million, which compares to a loss of $22 million during the Q4 of 2022, mainly associated with the losses from exchange rate differences in Chile, due to the Chilean peso to dollar exchange rate valuation impact on temporary balance sheet items in the local currency during the quarter. Conversely, this effect was positive during the Q4 of 2022.

The company recorded a profit of $56 million in the Q4 of 2023, compared to the $136 million profit obtained in the same quarter of the previous year, primarily due to a lower EBITDA, explained by a decrease in sales in the spot market in both Chile and Peru, and lower sales to unregulated clients in Chile. This effect were partially offset by the lower gas consumption in Chile, stemming from the lower generation using these fuel sources. Now, continuing with the earnings conference call, please go to slide 13, where Miguel will give you an update on the status of our growth opportunities.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Regarding our growth opportunities in Chile, the updates for this quarter are as follows: Horizonte, as of December 31st, the company has achieved 76% progress in the Horizonte wind project, reaching mechanical completion of all four wind turbines by the end of the quarter. The construction foundations have been completed, and the work on internal roads and turbine platforms is proceeding in progress, with an overall point of 96% in civil work, substations, transmission lines, and medium-voltage networks, as well as 87% progress in electrical work. In total, 535 main components have been installed at the wind turbine sites. It is worth mentioning that by the end of December 2023, an improvement in the frequency of wind turbine component transport has been achieved, following the implementation of prior escort for certain sections of the transport route, Diego de Almagro BESS.

As of December 31, the Diego de Almagro power plant battery storage system has conducted real-time system testing, which was essential for certification and commercial operation. Currently, the plant is performing daily charging and energy injection operations, awaiting the commercial operation approval from the National Electric Coordinator. Additionally, during this quarter, a letter of relevance was submitted to Environmental Assessment Service, aiming to determine the type of environmental permit required for the installation of 1,000 MWh storage system. For more information regarding our current projects, please review our earnings report. This completes Colbún's Q4 of 2023 results review. Thanks for listening, and now we are open to answer your questions.

Moderator

Thank you. So we will now move to the question and answer section. If you would like to ask a question, please press star two on your phone and wait to be prompted. If you're dialed in by the web, you can type your question in the box provided or request to ask a voice question. We'll just wait a moment or two for the questions to come in. So our first question comes from Alejandra Andrade from J.P. Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Alejandra Andrade
Latam Corporates Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi, good morning. Thank you so much for taking my questions. I had two questions, actually. First, I wanted to ask in Chile, in terms of your costs, I see a big spike in fuel costs per megawatt hour. So just wondering if that was because of the use of expensive inventory? And then secondly, if you could provide a little bit more context on CapEx guidance for 2024, that would be great. Thank you.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Alejandra, hi, how are you? This is Miguel. Can you hear me okay?

Alejandra Andrade
Latam Corporates Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Yes.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Okay, great. So regarding the first question, yes, there was an increase in the cost of different types of fossil fuels, especially gas and coal. And actually, this has to do mainly with one-time, non-recurring effect charges that we had to record specifically in the Q4 of last year. These are, again, non-recurring one-time effects that affected the calculation of the variable cost per megawatt hour of both fuels. But that is something that you shouldn't expect going forward.

Alejandra Andrade
Latam Corporates Research Analyst, JPMorgan

What was it specifically?

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

So again, as you may know, typically, you have to record specific charges to accounts in the P&L line. And this is something that we have to register specifically, something that to do with coal consumption, linked to, as you mentioned, higher cost of inventory. While specifically for gas, this is basically the way this contract operates. I cannot unfortunately comment further on, apart from saying again, that this is something that is a non-recurring one-time charge that we should not expect going forward.

Alejandra Andrade
Latam Corporates Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Just to clarify, then in 2024, you would not have this charge at all, or would you still have it at the end, in the Q4 of 2024?

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

No, no, no. We don't expect to have these charges in 2024, in any of the quarters.

Alejandra Andrade
Latam Corporates Research Analyst, JPMorgan

All right. Thank you.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Sure.

Soledad Errázuriz
Financial Operations Manager, Colbún

Hi, Alejandra, how are you? Regarding your second question, in terms of the CapEx for the company expected for 2024, so the most relevant will be for the development of Horizonte Wind Farm. As Miguel mentioned, the total CapEx for this wind farm is around $900 million, and we have already disbursed, as of December, around $600 million. Additionally, there will be some CapEx, if we approve the construction of other projects that are currently on our pipeline, a nd we also have the current maintenance CapEx of our power plant that's of around $80 million.

Alejandra Andrade
Latam Corporates Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Great. Thank you so much.

Soledad Errázuriz
Financial Operations Manager, Colbún

Thanks.

Moderator

Okay, thank you. So our next question comes from Martin Arancet from Balanz Capital. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Martín Arancet
Equity and Credit Research Analyst, Balanz Capital

Hi. Thank you. Thank you for taking my questions. First, in terms of generation, Hydro came similar to, i n the Q4 and the first in the Q3 . But Q4, coal and gas generation was less than half compared to the previous quarter. You already mentioned that part of this was due to a failure in one of the units during the fire, but could you comment if there is any additional factor and if we should expect something similar in the first quarter 2024, with El Niño still playing?

Speaker 10

Hi, Martin. Macarena here. Can you hear me?

Martín Arancet
Equity and Credit Research Analyst, Balanz Capital

Yes. Hi.

Macarena Güell
Investor Relation Analyst, Colbún

Okay. So answering your question about the lower thermal generation this quarter, as you must read also in our earnings report, the lower generation in terms of thermal is mainly due to, in terms of CapEx, by Nehuenco fire, a nd also, I did talk about Nehuenco II and Santa María. Because of the economic dispatch, they could not generate in those terms. So combining those things, that's why we have lower thermal generation, but also partially offset by a higher, higher generation, as you must know.

Martín Arancet
Equity and Credit Research Analyst, Balanz Capital

Okay, could we expect then this going forward into the first half of 2024?

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

That, Martin, depends on the evolution of the marginal cost. As you know, the variable cost of fossil fuel depend on the actual price of those inputs. Those, both of them have already stabilized compared to the situation, especially in the first half of 2023. But it will depend on the evolution of the marginal cost, and of course, for the Q2 onwards, also the hydro outputs. But typically, the Q4 tends to have lower thermal generation because of the melting, inflow, plus the hydro generation.

Martín Arancet
Equity and Credit Research Analyst, Balanz Capital

Okay, thanks. Then-

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

So we have, we have no problem with that question.

Martín Arancet
Equity and Credit Research Analyst, Balanz Capital

Clear. Thank you. Then my second question is, do you have any updates on the tweaking of the capacity payment formula? How could that affect each technology and coal volume in particular?

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

No, Martin, that discussion is still ongoing and nothing to comment at this point. My understanding is that the regulator is trying to tackle other things with priority as, for example, prioritization mechanism by the regulators. But nothing to comment.

Martín Arancet
Equity and Credit Research Analyst, Balanz Capital

Okay, thanks. And my final question then, do you have any updates on a possible expansion plan in Peru?

Macarena Güell
Investor Relation Analyst, Colbún

Hi, Martin. You must know, in Peru we have also a renewable pipeline. As you must know, in Peru, especially my mining companies, are seeking for these renewable contracts. We have a pipeline for around 900 MW by 2030. The final answer is that, yes, we are looking forward to growing in terms of renewables in Peru. But nothing official to comment here.

Martín Arancet
Equity and Credit Research Analyst, Balanz Capital

Okay, thank you very much.

Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from, Nicolás Langlois, from, AFP Cuprum. Please go ahead.

Nicolás Langlois
Head of Local Equities, AFP Cuprum

Hi, thank you very much for the conference call. I just have a question regarding the current status of our plants both in Chile and Peru. Just understand how it's working, the Nehuenco Unit One after the fire, after the maintenance. Should we expect any problem this first quarter? And also in Fenix, after you did a maintenance this Q4, how do you see the plant and the broad portfolio working in terms of the operational efficiency this Q1 of 2024? Thank you very much.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Sure. Also, as you know, we expect both plants to be up and running throughout the year. Both should have extremely high reliability standards, because as you correctly point out, after the maintenance and the tests that we performed in terms of the operational performance of the plants going forward, we don't expect any issues or failures going forward, as part of that. The only thing would be minor maintenances. For example, one we expect in the first quarter of this year, that should take about two weeks in the case of Fenix. But again, that's customary, so nothing, no relevant deviation.

Nicolás Langlois
Head of Local Equities, AFP Cuprum

Okay, thank you, Matt, very much. Can I ask you on another topic? How do you see spot prices marginal cost in Peru this first quarter?

Macarena Güell
Investor Relation Analyst, Colbún

Hi, Nicholas. After the increasing operations of some hydropower plants that were out during last year, and with an improvement in the stabilization of the hydraulic conditions, we expect that the marginal cost will keep at a level of around $30 per MW. That's what we have been seeing over the last couple of weeks.

Nicolás Langlois
Head of Local Equities, AFP Cuprum

Excellent. That's great to hear. Thanks a lot.

Moderator

Okay, thank you. Our next question comes from Martin Becher from Fundamenta Capital. Please go ahead.

Martin Becher
Analyst, Fundamenta Capital

Hello? Hello, hello.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

No sound, Martin.

Martin Becher
Analyst, Fundamenta Capital

Hello?

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

We can hear you, Martin. Can you hear us?

Martin Becher
Analyst, Fundamenta Capital

Ah, great. Yeah, sorry. Yeah, hi. My question was regarding the, the Codelco contract. We saw an indexation effect, as you mentioned in, in the PR. I was wondering if you could maybe give some color if, if this, if this indexation going to a price around $90, that was going to be permanent or, or maybe that was an effect, of the Q4. Because, I mean, in the Q4 of last year, we also saw an, an indexation effect on, on that contract in particular, making the effective price really high. So if we analyze maybe the, the last two years, we saw that contract around $130. I don't know if, if that's the, the, the running price and, and this quarter was, was a one-off there. That's basically the question.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Hi, Martin, yes, here. Thank you for your question. So, as you may know, typically in unregulated contracts, generators have the ability to agree specific indexators, per contract. This particular case that happened during 2023 has to do basically with commodity prices and fossil fuel prices, which are part of the indexators, for that specific contract. The situation you described for 2022 is something different, linked to other type of indexators, which unfortunately are confidential. That I cannot comment, b ut again, what happened basically in this year, is that when you compare, fossil fuel prices in particular, against the same period in 2022, you'll see a decrease, and that's for the duration of the reduction in price for that particular contract you're asking about.

Martin Becher
Analyst, Fundamenta Capital

Okay. So basically, that's the price we should see going forward if the fossil fuels, gas and coal maybe stays on these levels. That's correct?

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Again, only the portion linked to those indicators, which are not the only ones.

Martin Becher
Analyst, Fundamenta Capital

Yeah, yeah.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Affecting the contract.

Martin Becher
Analyst, Fundamenta Capital

Okay. Got it.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Mm-hmm. Sorry?

Moderator

Okay, thank you. We have another question from Cristóbal Merry from BTG Pactual, Chile. Please go ahead.

Cristóbal Merry
Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

Hi, guys. Can you hear me well? Hello?

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Yes, Cristóbal, we can hear you perfectly.

Cristóbal Merry
Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

Oh, excellent. First of all, thank you very much for your presentation. My question is regarding your new PPA with Minera Centinela. Can we expect the deployment of additional capacity, in the next year in order to supply that contract, or you plan to supply it with your existing capacity and well, considering also Horizonte?

Soledad Errázuriz
Financial Operations Manager, Colbún

Hi, Cristóbal. How are you? This is Soledad, r egarding your question, yes, to supply the PPAs from Horizonte, we have a pipeline of projects that are in later stages, waiting for approval of our board. These are wind and PV projects we have announced in our Investor Day. Regarding the Horizonte generation, that is mostly committed, if you see the BHP contract we signed a couple of years ago. Having said that, what we do is that we don't supply our PPAs with specific power plants. What we do is that we add up all of our generation matrix, and with that approach, we serve our PPAs.

Cristóbal Merry
Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

Thank you very much.

Moderator

Okay, thank you. Just a reminder, if you have a question, please press star two and wait to be prompted. We have a text question from Kamal at Barings, who asks: What is your outlook for 2024 and guidance with regards to spot prices, revenues, and generation?

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Hi, Kamal. Miguel here. So unfortunately, we have said it within the past that unlike other companies, we don't provide forecast or indication of the upcoming year. We do try to convey some messages in terms of expected generation and production in our investor's day. But apart from that, unfortunately, we cannot provide forecasting figures.

Moderator

Understood. Thank you, Miguel. So, just a final reminder, if you have a question, please press star two. So we have one more text question. This is from, Felipe Torres at AFP Habitat. It's quite long, Miguel, so feel free to stop me, if you want, at any point here. During 2023, the marginal cost of producing the gas for the company was around $109/MWh, despite the reduction in the GNL and HH prices during that year. What explains this, and what cost per megawatt hour can we expect in 2024 and 2025 from gas generation? There are two other questions. Perhaps we can start with that one.

Soledad Errázuriz
Financial Operations Manager, Colbún

Hi, Felipe. Thank you for your question, Soledad. Regarding your first question about the cost of supply with mixed fuels, like gas and coal, as we already mentioned, the spike this quarter was due to specific accounting registering this quarter, that we don't expect will repeat in the future. In terms of your second question, we cannot give you guidance on the level of price for our new PPAs. And in terms, but something we can mention is that they should be enough to make our projects profitable. I n terms of CapEx and payout policy, we should expect a leverage consistent with an investment-grade company.

Moderator

Thank you, Soledad. So I'm not seeing any more questions. So perhaps I can hand it back to Miguel and Soledad for closing remarks.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Thank you all for joining today. Significant participation, we appreciate that. Thank you for your questions as well. Hope you all have a great weekend, and happy to those in the southern hemisphere. See you in a month. So thank you and goodbye.

Moderator

Thank you very much. That concludes the call for today. Thank you, and have a nice day.

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