Colbún S.A. (SNSE:COLBUN)
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May 14, 2026, 4:00 PM CLT
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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Nov 3, 2023

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Hello to everyone, and welcome to Colbún's Q3 2023 earnings review call. My name is Miguel Alarcón, I'm the company's CFO, and joining me today is Federico Urgell, Financial Manager, and Macarena Rueda, Investor Relations Analyst. I hope that you have received our earnings report and an earnings review presentation that we have prepared to complement the analysis of our figures. Otherwise, you can download them at the investor section of our website. Agenda for today, on slide three is as follows: We will begin talking about the highlights of this quarter, to then analyze in detail this quarter's results. After that, we will provide an update on our growth opportunities. Following the presentation, there will be time to participate in a Q&A session. Now, please go to slide number four to review the highlights of this quarter.

On August 4, a fire broke out in the gas turbine filter area of unit 1 at the Nehuenco complex. The cause of this fire was the fall of an incandescent piece of metal into an area with flammable material filters at a moment when the metal component was being welded to the structure of the filter area. However, it is important to note that this procedure is part of the major maintenance process that the mentioned unit was undergoing at the time of the fire. Additionally, thanks to the action of the complex emergency brigade and the Quillota Fire Department, the fire was quickly contained without any injuries or spreading to other areas of the complex. As a result, the estimated commissioning date for the Nehuenco One unit is expected to be on January 20, 2024, a date that's already been communicated to the National Electric Coordinator.

It should be noted that the company has insurance coverage for these type of events. As of September 30, the company has achieved 63% progress on the Horizonte Wind Project, reaching mechanical completion of 29 wind turbines. On September 12, the signing of a 100% renewable energy contract between Colbún and Minera Collahuasi for up to 650 GWh per year was announced. The contract period is from January 2024 to December 2035. The first phase, which corresponds to a period of 2024 to 2025, is an agreement for 230 GWh per year, and the second phase, for the remaining period up until 2035, is for a total amount of 650 GWh per year, which will be supplied by both renewable assets already under construction and new projects to be built.

As of September 30, the Diego de Almagro Power Plant's battery storage system has conducted real-time signal testing. Now, please go to slide number five to review the main consolidated figures of the company. Consolidated EBITDA in the Q3 of this year reached $226 million, increasing 10% compared to the $205 million EBITDA in the Q3 of 2022. This increase is explained by a decrease in costs due to a higher hydroelectric generation, and consequently, lower generation from thermal power plants during the quarter. Those effects were partially offset by, first, an increase in the costs of energy and power purchases in the spot market due to the higher average price in Peru. And in second, lower revenue from the sale of energy and capacity in the spot market, due to a lower average sale price in Chile.

The company recorded a profit of $124 million, compared to the $81 million profit presented in the same quarter of last year, mainly due to a higher EBITDA and non-operating income. This impact was partially offset by the higher tax expenses in this period. As of September 30, the company holds $1.2 billion of cash, and net debt to EBITDA ratio is 1.2x. Now, I will turn to Federico, who will speak about the main drivers of the Q3 of 2023 results.

Federico Urgell
Financial Manager, Colbún

Thank you, Miguel, and hello to everyone. Now, please continue to slide number seven for physical sales and generation balance analysis in Chile. Total generation of the period remained in line with Q3 2022. This generation level was mainly due to increased hydroelectric generation, +773 GWh, given by better hydrological conditions, which offset a decrease in thermal generation, -764 GWh, particularly from coal, -496 GWh. Physical sales during the quarter reached 3.2 TWh, lower than Q3 2022, mainly due to lower physical sales to our unregulated clients, primarily explained by a reduced consumption among mining clients. This effect was partially offset by, first, increased sales in the spot market due to lower consumption by our unregulated clients during this quarter.

Second, increase in physical sales to regulated clients, explained by the expiration of contracts between other generation companies and distribution companies, resulting in a higher load factor for the contract that's still in force. Spot market balance during Q3 2023 recorded net sales of 248 GWh, compared to 195 GWh of net sales in Q3 2022. This variation is mainly explained by the reduced consumption of unregulated clients mentioned earlier. Now, please continue to slide number eight to analyze the EBITDA from generation business in Chile for the quarter.

EBITDA in Chile reached $177 million in Q3 of 2023, decreasing by 2% compared to the EBITDA of $180 million in Q3 2022, mainly due to lower operating incomes, partially offset by lower raw materials and fuel costs associated with reduced generation from gas and coal, which in turn is explained by higher hydroelectric generation during the quarter. Now, please continue to slide number nine, for physical sales and generation balance analysis in Peru. Total generation of the period increased 2% compared to Q3 2022, reaching 1,197 GWh.

This high generation is mainly explained because during Q3 2022, there was forced unavailability of the plants due to turbine failures, which meant that Fénix Thermal Power Plant was operating intermittently during the months of July and August, in the Q3 of 2022. Physical sales during this quarter reached 1,169 GWh, increasing by 2% compared to Q3 2022. The higher physical sales are primarily explained by increased sales to unregulated clients due to the entry of new supply contracts. This effect was partially offset by lower Spot Market sales compared to Q3 2022, mainly due to the increased commitments with the unregulated clients mentioned before.

Spot market balance during Q3 2023 recorded net sales of 355 GWh, compared to net sales of 553 GWh during Q3 2022, due to increased consumption by unregulated clients, resulting from the entry of new contracts mentioned before. Now, please continue to slide 10 to analyze the EBITDA in Peru for Q3 2023. EBITDA in Peru reached $49 million in Q3 2023, recording a 98% increase compared to the EBITDA of $25 million recorded in Q3 2022. This result is mainly explained by higher sales of energy and power in the spot market as a result of the higher average sale price. Now, please continue to slide 11 for the consolidated non-operating income and net income analysis.

Non-operating income in Q3 2023 recorded profits of $0.5 million, which compares to the loss of $34 million in Q3 2022, mainly associated with, first, higher financial income due to the increase in interest rates during this quarter. And second, higher other profits, mainly due to the income of $8.3 million corresponding to an insurance payment because of the Nehuenco Two thermal power plant that occurred in January 2022. The company recorded a profit of $118 million, compared to the profit of $81 million in Q3 2022, mainly due to the higher EBITDA and non-operating income mentioned above. Now, continuing with this conference call, please go to slide 13, where Miguel will give you an update on the status of our growth opportunities.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Thank you, Federico. Regarding our growth opportunities in Chile, relevant updates for this quarter are as follows: Horizonte. As of the Q3 of 2023, 63% of the project was completed. Turbine assembly began, reaching mechanical completion of 29 wind turbines by the end of the quarter. The construction of foundations has been completed, and work on internal roads and turbine platforms is still in progress, with an overall progress of 93% for civil works, substations, transmission lines, and medium voltage networks, as well as 78% progress in electrical works. In total, 407 main components have been unloaded at the wind turbine sites. It's worth mentioning that we are experiencing some challenges transporting oversized components from Puerto Angamos in Mejillones to the project, due to a shortage of available police escorts for these transfers, as stated in the regulation.

Therefore, during this quarter, there has been progress with the possibility of implementing private escorts on a trial basis. Diego de Almagro BESS. As of September 30, the Diego de Almagro Power Plant's battery storage system has conducted real-time signal testing, which was essential for its certification and commercial operation. Currently, it is performing daily energy charging and injection operations, but awaits approval from the National Electric Coordinator for commercial operation. For more information regarding our current projects, please review our earnings report.

... This concludes Colbún's Q4 of 2023 results review. Thank you for listening, and now we're open to answer your questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now move to the question and answer section. If you would like to ask a question, please press star two on your phone and wait to be prompted. If you're dialed in by web, you can type your question in the box provided or request to ask a voice question. Our first question comes from Alejandra Andrade from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Alejandra Andrade
Senior Credit Analyst, JPMorgan

Hi, good morning. Thank you so much for the call and for taking my question. I had a couple of questions. First, I wanted to get more color in terms of the regulatory environment, and, you know, we've seen obviously headline and proposals to implement continuous kind of stabilization funds or that type of mechanism. If you could give us more color on that, would be great. Secondly, I just wanted to check in terms of CapEx, what you're expecting for the Q4 ? And then specifically for Horizonte, can you specify how much you've spent to date and how much is still missing?

And then finally, on the new contract that you shared, the miner contract, I was just wondering, is that to replace other expiring contracts, or should we think of that as a new additional volume in terms of contracts? Thanks.

Federico Urgell
Financial Manager, Colbún

Hi, Alejandra. Good morning. I will answer your first question. So regarding these PEC 2 extension discussions, there are some discussions have been taking place between the parliament and the Ministry of Energy currently, regarding modifications to the PEC 2 Law, right? And there are three key takeaways. The first one is an increase in the MPC Fund. Currently, it's set in $1.9 billion . The second one is an extension in the limit payment date, from December 2032 to December 2035. And the third one is the application of a social electric subsidy for the most vulnerable clients. And this mechanism of how this bond will work is still very preliminary, so we are not able to give further details.

Alejandra Andrade
Senior Credit Analyst, JPMorgan

Understood. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you.

Is Mariana here? Can you hear me?

We have a question from Martín Arancet from Balanz. Please go ahead.

Martín Arancet
Equity Research Analyst, Balanz Capital

Yeah. Yes.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Sorry, sorry to interrupt that. Before that, I think we were missing a couple of questions from Alejandra.

Martín Arancet
Equity Research Analyst, Balanz Capital

Yeah.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Regarding the second question, Alejandra, about the CapEx to Horizonte. The total CapEx spent so far has been a little over $500 million, $530 million, actually. Out of those, $300 million roughly were spent in 2023. So with that, there's another a little over $300 million remaining for the Q4 of this year and for 2024. The final question regarding the new contract, I mean, it's always a combination, right? Because on one side, we have a relevant exploration of a relevant contract with CGE. And this is basically the same amount that we are in some way contracting or recontracting with this new client. Having said that, we do have a portfolio approach, so in a sense, we try to look at every exploration all in one together.

So it's not that we're replacing this particular contract with a new one. It's more like a portfolio approach to have a balanced contracting position between our generation output and our PPA level.

Alejandra Andrade
Senior Credit Analyst, JPMorgan

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you, Alejandra, and apologies for that. So Martin, please, you have a question? Please go ahead.

Martín Arancet
Equity Research Analyst, Balanz Capital

Yes. Hi, thank you. And thank you for taking my questions. Well, you were just mentioning your growth opportunities in Chile. I was wondering if, is it a big concern, the problems in the transmission networks, that might cause curtailment, or do you think these problems are temporary and the system operator will be able to solve these issues via the expansion of new lines, use of batteries, tweaking the dispatch rules or something else? And my second question is, what do you expect in terms of, hydro output and spot prices, given the El Niño phenomenon, and when should we expect, the more intense impact in that region? Thanks.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Hi, Miguel speaking. I didn't get the last part of your second question, and maybe you can repeat after I answer the first one. Regarding transmission congestion, yes, we do see a number of challenges currently, especially in the northern part of Chile, that there are-

... Welcome back to everyone on this call, I would say. Having said that, we do believe that most of those will be solved with the addition of this relevant new transmission line being built by a third party that should come online around 2028 or a bit after that, in terms of whether they have declared so far. I do think that that transmission line should not be enough to move forward, because as I'm sure you know, there's relevant new capacity also being available in the northern part of Chile in the future. And because of that, there might be the need to further strengthen that transmission line. I think your second question was regarding spot prices. As you know, we cannot give forecasts in terms of future expectation and prices.

What I can say is that we basically expect for the system to keep on operating, at least in the next one or two months, with the same combination of generation output that we've seen in the last couple of months, and that should virtually maintain the spot market prices in the same levels they are today. I think there might be a final third question, which I did not get, as I mentioned.

Martín Arancet
Equity Research Analyst, Balanz Capital

Yeah, I was wondering the impact that El Niño could have in Peru in terms of hydro output, well, other spot prices that you just mentioned.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

So, yeah, so hard to say, right? Because as I'm sure you know, the meaning of the rain seasonality in Peru, it's the opposite of Chile. So the rain season actually started officially in September, and the first September, we did see a lot of dry conditions in there, and that meant marginal costs going up well above $100 per hour. Nowadays, because rains already started, we see a much more normalized situation with the spot market prices around $35 on average. Having said that, I think it's too early to call it dry or wet, because we don't have enough visibility so far, so in other words, we need to wait a bit to see how that El Niño phenomenon unfolds in Peru.

Martín Arancet
Equity Research Analyst, Balanz Capital

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. So we have a question now from Fernán González from BTG Pactual. Please go ahead.

Fernán González
Senior Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

Yeah. Hi, Miguel, Federico, Maca. I have two questions about Peru, because you reported zero spot market purchases in the quarter, and yet you booked like $30 million of energy and capacity purchase costs. So I'm wondering, how is this so? Is this related perhaps to some delayed invoicing from the prior quarter, or I really struggle to understand that. And my second question is on the compensation that you mentioned in the last call about the extended maintenance of Fénix Power. Is there any progress in that negotiation with your supplier? If you could share some color on that too.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

So, so sorry, but we cannot hear you properly. There might be some connection issues. So if you can maybe get closer to your microphone and repeat both questions, that would be great.

Fernán González
Senior Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

Okay. Can you hear me well now?

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

A bit better, I would say.

Fernán González
Senior Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

Okay, so the-

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

That's better.

Fernán González
Senior Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

The thing is, I'm wondering about the spot market... I mean, the energy and capacity purchases in Peru. You booked $33 million in energy and capacity costs, but in terms of volume, you had no purchases in the spot market, so I'm wondering why that is. The second question was related to any compensation that you might get from the extended maintenance of Fenix Power in the Q2 .

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

So regarding the spot market balance in Peru, as you know, Fernán, we in Fénix are net sellers, so they might be just due to presentation, the way we presented that, it's that we're actually showing zero purchases or, in other words, a net seller position. Having said that, I think in this particular quarter, we did not have to purchase energy from the spot market because the plant was operational throughout the whole quarter.

Fernán González
Senior Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

Okay, thanks.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

I didn't get your second question.

Fernán González
Senior Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

No, the second one is about any financial compensation you might get from the company that made the maintenance at Fenix Power in the Q2 that was overextended.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Ah, yeah, yeah. So, sorry for that. So, we keep in conversations with them. No news on that end. I think you might recall that we mentioned last time that getting a compensation is actually really hard, because although we still believe that they were responsible for most of the delays, linked to that, to actually put that in a complete way and, let's say, in relation to what's binding in contracts and agreements, it's actually really hard to achieve. So we keep on engaging in discussions with them, but no news so far.

Fernán González
Senior Equity Research Analyst, BTG Pactual

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Just a reminder, if you have a question, please press star two on your keypad or type in the box provided. We have a text question from Martin Zetia from Fundamental Capital. He asks, "Why did the average price on unregulated contracts decrease 15% versus the last quarter? So it went from around $120 to $100 this quarter.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Hello, this is Miguel here. Basically, the reason is that, as you may know, we have several PPAs, we have a PPA contract. Some of them are linked to CPI, American CPI, while others to CPI. Particularly, we've seen a downward trend in spot prices, that in turn explains the reduction in the PPA prices, especially in the contracts linked to those prices. It's as simple as that.

Operator

Understood. Thank you. We have another text question from Carlos Hinojosa. Hello, congratulations for the results. Just some quick questions so I can adjust my numbers. Number one, gas cost per MWh was around $116. What's the main reason for this increase, and what level should we expect going forward? I guess that was answered just now. Number two, can you give us more color in the decrease in unregulated revenues, particularly what indexes are the main ones moving the prices so low quarter-over-quarter?

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Hi. Basically, regarding gas prices, we've seen a decrease in the gas prices, as you may recall, because we've explained this in the past. In our case, we have a long-term gas contract with ENAP that is in turn linked to Brent prices. It's accordingly based on Brent. So since we've seen, as I already mentioned in my previous answer, fossil fuel prices, particularly Brent, going down over the last year, we do see that also reflected in the cost per unit in gas prices, in which we basically saw something along the way of $75/MWh of natural gas. Going forward, I would say that we should expect, if the Brent prices will maintain within the same levels, also the same prices for LNG.

Operator

Okay, thank you. We have another text question. This one's from Eric Evancian from Vanguard. How will the company finance the new renewables projects that support the new renewable contracts that were signed this quarter? Will it be from free cash flows?

Federico Urgell
Financial Manager, Colbún

Hi, Federico here. Well, we currently hold $1 billion cash position, and we expect to use that amount for our expansion plan, to cover one part of our expansion plan. And, we, as always been doing, we will finance our plan through corporate financing, which means that probably with international issuance or subscription of a bank loan, because... Well, it's the way that we've been doing this and basically how we feel comfortable and the way of that we think that we will keep doing in the future.

Operator

Great. Thank you. So we'll just give it another couple of moments for additional questions. Just a reminder, if you do have a question, please press star two on your keypad. So we'll just give it another 10, 20 seconds or so. Thank you. Okay. I'm not seeing any more questions, so perhaps I could hand back to Miguel and the team for closing remarks.

Miguel Alarcón
CFO, Colbún

Okay. Thank you everyone for joining us again in this conference call for our Q3 results. Have a really great, great weekend, and hope to see you soon. Goodbye.

Operator

Thank you. That concludes the call for the day. Thank you, and have a nice day.

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