...Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Empresas Copec's Q2 24 results conference call. Today's presentation and the Q2 24 earnings release are available on the company's investor relations website, investors.empresascopec.cl. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this presentation may include market outlooks and forward-looking statements, which are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Empresas Copec's management, and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions because they relate to future events, and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions, and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Empresas Copec, and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.
This presentation contains certain performance measures that have been adjusted with respect to IFRS definitions such as EBITDA. In this opportunity, questions will be received in written form. If you have a question, please write it down in the Q&A section. Please be aware that your company's name should be visible for your question to be taken. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rodrigo Huidobro, Chief Financial Officer of Empresas Copec. Please go ahead, sir.
Okay. Hello, everyone. Welcome, thank you for joining us today. We will be going through the presentation, where we will be having a look at the results for the Q2 24 . I will begin the presentation by myself, and I will be joined in the second part of the presentation by Mr. Cristian Palacios, Director of Investor Relations, and Mr. Gianfranco Truffello, CFO of Arauco. They will be helping us out in addressing the questions you might have. Feel free to begin posing your questions right away, or at any moment throughout the presentation, through the chat that is available on the Zoom platform. Okay, so having said all that, let me start by taking a look at the most important results and highlights of the quarter.
We have here the EBITDA, which is $768 million, which means an increase year on year, but however, a slight decrease Q- on- Q. We will enter into the reasons in a moment. In essence, we have an improved performance in both forestry and energy with respect to the quarter last year. In forestry, we had EBITDA increasing year on year on the back of higher volumes and lower costs, and also higher prices. Volumes and costs essentially have to do with increased production at MAPA. However, we have a decrease with respect to the immediately preceding quarter with respect to 1Q 24, and that has to do with a decreased production, essentially at MAPA, because of our scheduled maintenance.
Also with some delays in shipments which were stemming from some port strikes that we had to face during the quarter. In terms of energy, we saw an increased EBITDA year on year, and that has to do basically with favorable margins, including the industrial margin and a less unfavorable inventory effect, both at Copec and at Terpel. In the case of Abastible, we see an increased EBITDA on the back of higher volumes. In relation to projects and other interesting milestones that we saw during the quarter, we saw Abastible entering into an agreement with the Spanish company, Cepsa, in order to acquire Cepsa's operations in liquid gas in Spain and Portugal. Very interesting operation, for which we will be giving some further detail.
We went ahead with a successful bond placement at the parent company level. Arauco announced new OSB capacity in the south of Chile. Terpel went ahead with the sale of gas stations operations in Peru and Ecuador, and finally, the forestry asset sale in Brazil was completed by Arauco. In terms of ESG, we continue to make significant progress across the board in all divisions. Copec has signed an agreement to build and use storage facility for energy, a battery energy system in the north of Chile in relation to Granja Solar, which are the solar generation assets that had been acquired the previous quarter. Copec Voltex goes ahead with a new electrical bus terminal, this time in the south of Chile.
Abastible has signed an agreement for a small hydrogen project, and Arauco has fulfilled all the requirements in terms of projects to be able to make up the volume issued, the total funds issued through the sustainable bond last year. EBITDA is up to $768 million, which is up 78% with respect to comparable quarter last year. However, 9% down with respect to the immediately preceding quarter. This is mainly driven by pulp EBITDA. Pulp is up to $320, which compares very favorably with the first quarter 2020. The Q2 2023. As a matter of fact, it's a 218% increase on that EBITDA generation.
Copec, Abastible, Mina Justa, and the wood products division, all of them, recording healthy EBITDAs, and we will go into the detail further on. In terms of leverage, we continue to go down three times EBITDA, so net debt to EBITDA is now at three times. In terms of the CapEx, we are at a figure which is very close to half of what we had projected for the year as a whole. In a historical context, you can see that EBITDA is significantly up with respect to the Q2 2023, which was 432. That was the bottom of our EBITDA generation last year. EBITDA at 768 this quarter is a little down with respect to the 844 that we recorded last quarter.
Net income with a similar behavior, up with respect to, significantly with respect to the Q2 2023. But in this case, also slightly up with respect to the first quarter 2024, 298 net income recorded this quarter. You can see there our net debt to EBITDA, which continues to go down. We reached a maximum of four times in the third quarter 2023. That has gone gradually down to the current three times. This is basically driven by a stronger EBITDA generation, and now leaves us within our preferred range, which we have defined as two to three times.
So now we are within our sweet spot in terms of net debt to EBITDA, and this should continue to go down as we continue to replace, in terms of moving averages, we continue to replace quarters of low EBITDA generation by quarters of increased EBITDA generation. Our maturities, our net maturities are shown there. We have a well-balanced schedule for the years to come and also a very comfortable cash position. Our financial ratios are also shown there, and we have seen a gradual increase in return on capital employed, driven basically by the operational improvements that we will talk about, and also a very healthy EBITDA margin this quarter and the preceding quarter. Now we'll take a look at each business division, starting out with forestry.
In the case of forestry, we recorded EBITDA of $421 million, which compares very favorably with the $164 million recorded in the Q2 2023. That is driven essentially by pulp, as I said before, and that has to do with higher prices, but also with higher volumes and lower costs, essentially stemming both of those factors from an increased production at Mapa. In terms of non-operating income, we also have some significant effects. The most important of them having to do with some insurance compensations that we received in the Q2 2023, which is, of course, not there anymore.
That was a one-time effect that we recorded, a positive effect that we recorded in the Q2 last year, and also with a decreased valuation of biological assets this quarter when compared with the Q2 last year. Some more detail regarding pulp. You can see there that our costs with respect to the Q2 2023 have been going down significantly. The highest or the most significant drop has happened in bleached hardwood, and that has to do essentially with the fact that the operating rate at MAPA has been much higher than last year. In the case of the comparison against the first quarter 2024, we see some increases in costs, and that has to do essentially with the fact that we had several scheduled maintenances that took place during this quarter.
That, of course, hurt production and make unit costs go up. In terms of net sales and prices, you can see there that both of them increased quite significantly with respect to the quarter last year. Price going up 10%, volumes going up by close to 20%. Prices continued to increase with respect to the first quarter this year. However, volumes go down, sales volumes go down, essentially because of maintenance schedules, but also because of the delays stemming from logistical disruptions, which are essentially strikes in ports that we had to face. Pulp EBITDA, as you can see on the bottom right corner there, is up to 320, which is a significant improvement on the Q2 2023.
A brief discussion on the major factors that affected the pulp markets during the Q2 2024. In general, the market was stable and cautious. A slight increase in global stocks, but not significant. In China, the market was also stable. Their customers or clients had some difficulties passing through the increases in prices to their final customers, to the paper customers, and therefore, that brought about some decrease in operating rates in the case of some mills. Prices showed an interesting increase at the beginning of the quarter, but stabilized towards the end of the quarter. Inventories have moved a bit, but stable in general. Europe, on its side, has shown quite a strong performance during the year as a whole, and in particular, during this quarter, it began with a very strong performance, very strong demand...
However, it started to stabilize along the quarter, essentially driven by printing and writing. Tissue was strong all along the quarter. Softwood were also strong and also continued to be affected by some supply disruptions. Dissolving pulp was well balanced and stable in general. Our production, in particular, dropped during the Q2 2024 by 15% approximately, and that was driven essentially by scheduled maintenances. In particular, Arauco's line three, which is MAPA, decreased by 25% during the quarter with respect to the preceding quarter. You can see there some data showing at this point in time, during the Q2, a healthy demand growing by 4.1% on a world level, and also levels of inventories that are pretty much in line with historic averages, lower than historic averages in the case of softwood.
What we are seeing and what we're expecting in the case of pulp, the market in China has been with a lot of volatility. It is expected to be more challenging. Consumption showing some weakness. Pulp production has increased at a local level, that has caused some differentiation between local prices and import prices. And all this, of course, is placing some downward pressure in local prices in China. As a matter of fact, you can see the evolution of Arauco's net prices in China. You can see that both dissolving pulp and softwood are very stable throughout June. In the case of hardwood, we have seen some more volatility, and as a matter of fact, we didn't close any deals during June. That is why the price there is blank.
But in general, Chinese market is becoming more volatile and, deals are being harder to close. In the case of Europe, it has shown a very strong year in general. However, lately, it has become more stable, and in general, buyers and sellers are showing more cautious, more caution. Demand could eventually decrease because of lower consumption, and there's a price pressure, a downward price pressure as well because of the differential prices with China, and also because of the fact that, new supply is coming in and is expected to increase during the quarter because of two new mills which are beginning to ramp up. Moving on to our wood products division. It's a healthy EBITDA.
As a matter of fact, it's a slightly higher than last quarter, still lower than last year, but we're showing a rebound with respect to the Q1 24 . That is driven essentially by costs. Lower costs have meant increased margins. We are showing we're seeing general lower prices in the case of panel with respect to last quarter, stable volumes. And in the case of softwood, we are seeing slightly higher prices but decreased volumes. So in general, this is a division that, as we've mentioned before, has gone down significantly from the highs it showed in 2021 and 2022, which were historical peak, historical peaks, but continues to generate EBITDA at levels which are very close to the average historical levels. Still very healthy EBITDA generation. In general, we see stability in markets.
Our most important market is North America, representing more than 50% of our sales. We see some potential for improvement in MDF. Prices could stabilize during the rest of the quarter. In the case of particle board, we are seeing supply restrictions from other producers and other countries, so that could eventually boost prices. Remanufactured products also are seeing some supply restrictions and logistical difficulties of some producers, so that may also bring about some price increases in the North American market. In the case of plywood, we are also seeing that positive evolution might come. In the case of South and Central America, Brazil is our most important market.
In general, we are seeing positive developments there, but a note of caution because the depreciation of the real is giving way or could eventually give way to increased exports, which might hurt our other markets. Chile has been a little uncertain, with weak activity in the case of important clients, such as those coming from the industries of construction and retail. Argentina looks improved with respect to last quarter. We think that it might have touched bottom last quarter, and things might begin to improve in the second part of the year. The other markets are less important for Arauco.
However, in general, we're seeing similar trends having to do with a weaker demand in Asia, stability in Europe, and in general, around the world, prices could be boosted by the fact that many producers are facing logistical difficulties, so supply restrictions in general around the world. That's it for the forest division. We will move on to energy now. Energy had a very interesting quarter. We can see Copec on screen there. EBITDA generation by Copec was up to CLP 236 billion, which compares very well with the CLP 134 billion, which were recorded in the Q2 2023. It's a little bit down, however, with respect to the EBITDA generated in the first quarter 2024.
In the year-to-year comparison, we see stronger margins, including industrial margins very significantly, and also a less unfavorable inventory revaluation effect. Lubricants is a segment that has been doing very well, both in Chile and Colombia, and we are seeing an increased EBITDA generation from that particular segment. In terms of volumes, we are seeing a drop in the industrial channel, which is much more volatile, and in general, has to do with some customers that are entering or leaving the market, or some operations, some bids, which are either won or lost by Copec. So that is usually a much more volatile segment. So an increase in industrial volumes, but offset to some extent by an increase in the gas station channel in Chile.
In terms of gas station volumes, as I said, there's an increase of 1.2% year-on-year. Industry has, however, gone down with a drop of 11% in volumes. Market share, very stable at 58.5% as of the last data we have. Terpel also recorded quite an interesting quarter with an EBITDA of COP 454 billion, which compares well with the COP 220 billion generated in the Q2 2023. In spite of volumes going down, and we see volumes going down, essentially in Colombia, having to do a lot with aviation and industrial sector, and Panama having to do to a large extent by the mining sector in Panama. However, as I said, the EBITDA generation has gone up, and this is brought about basically by a less unfavorable inventory revaluation effect.
Together, and in this case, it's very patent, very clear, an improved performance in lubricants. Remember that some years ago, we acquired the operations in lubricants from ExxonMobil in Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, and those operations in particular, have been doing very well. And we've also achieved some logistical improvements at Terpel, which have given way to reduced distribution costs. In the case of Arauco, we see an improved EBITDA with CLP 45 billion for the quarter, compared with CLP 40 billion for the Q2 2023. This is caused essentially by better volumes. We've seen volumes increasing all across the board in all countries, and also in some cases, an improved margin. Some more detail there, country by country.
Look, we can go, you can afterwards go deeper into this detail country by country, but as a general fact, you can see that the bulk segment in general has shown increased volumes. In the case of the volume segments, we have also seen higher volumes in most countries, and higher margins, with the exception of Chile, where we have seen an increased competition; therefore, margins in the bulk segment hurt to some extent. But all in all, a very healthy performance of Arauco, with an improved EBITDA year- on- year. Let's talk a bit about our other investments, and let me focus on two things here. I mentioned, as we always do, of Cumbres Andinas, which is Mina Justa.
We saw an EBITDA generation for the company as a whole, for 100% of the company. Remember that we own 40% of this company, so it's not consolidated in our financial statements. But for the company as a whole, we saw an EBITDA generation in the quarter of 158, which is down with respect to the 204 that we recorded in the Q2 2023. That is explained by lower sales, which stem from a lower production, and also higher cash costs. We had expected both of these things to happen, so a lower production and higher cash costs. These two things stem from the fact that we are now operating in a part of the mine that has a lower grade than that where we operated last year.
So this will be going on during this year, and we expect this to be reverted as we come back into higher grade areas, and that will begin to happen during next year. So during next year, we should see a reversion of these trends, and production gradually going up again, and cash costs gradually going down again, all other things equal, of course. Second thing I would like to cover is Metrogas, where we saw a very interesting increase in the net income that we recorded from Metrogas. We also have approximately a 40% stake in Metrogas, so it's not consolidated, so we record a net income, an equity income coming from Metrogas.
It had to do with operational improvement, but also to a great extent, with the revision of provisions, some of them in relation to a judicial issue that is going on in Argentina with a transporting company that used to transport gas from Argentina, and that's a judicial process that Metrogas is facing, and where Metrogas received the good news that the court had ruled in favor of Metrogas. So there's a revision of the legal provision that was previously recorded in Metrogas. The other companies are quite stable with not a lot to comment during this quarter. That's it for the results for this quarter. We'll take your questions if you have them later on.
In terms of the highlights or most important developments of the quarter, let me start by pointing out that our Abastible just signed an agreement in order to acquire the LPG subsidiary company of Cepsa, Spanish company. So this company is called Gasib. It is a liquefied gas distributor in Spain and Portugal. Total price to be paid is EUR 275 million. This is a very interesting move for Abastible. Abastible is going to take hold of a company which sells around 250,000 tons of liquefied gas in Spain and Portugal, which means approximately a 40% increase in physical sales for Abastible. It is a company that is much more efficient than Abastible in terms of logistics and automation, and as a result of that, margins are significantly higher than in the case of Abastible.
So a very efficient operation with attractive margins. We expect an interesting profitability of this operation, especially when adjusted by risk. And also we see this move as a quite interesting strategic fit because Abastible is moving into a market that is 10 or 15 years ahead of Latam in terms of energy transition, and therefore, will be exposed to this type of market, and we'll be able to learn a lot and develop capabilities that will afterwards help us to pass through best practices to Latam in order to face energy transition in the local geographies in Latam. So all in all, a very interesting acquisition, good company, important growth for Abastible. Abastible enters the top 10 distributors of LPG in the world with this operation.
Interesting expected profitability and returns of the operation, adjusted by risk especially, and a very good strategic fit in terms of being exposed to energy transition and being able to replicate best practices afterwards in Latam, and partner with some local players in a more developed market such as the Spanish and Portuguese one. Second thing to highlight is that Empresas Copec, at the parent company level, issued local bonds for a total of approximately $50 million at a rate of 3.9% plus inflation, which means that we recorded the lowest spread in the year for corporate issuances. Very interesting bond placement there by the parent company.
In terms of our credit rating, we were confirmed in our triple B international rating and double A local rating by both Fitch and S&P, in both cases with stable outlook. So good news also on the credit quality front. Arauco has completed the acquisition, that was previously announced, the sale of, assets, forestry assets in Brazil for a total of approximately $1.2 billion. The net income, which is to be recorded from this acquisition, that is going to be recorded in the third quarter of this year, is around $170 million. And the net cash that is injected to Arauco, after taxes and, following this operation, is very close to $1 billion. So a very interesting and useful cash injection for Arauco from this forestry sale operation.
Some additional piece of news from Arauco. Arauco has announced that it would adapt a panel facility in the south of Chile and complement it with new equipment in order to turn it into an OSB manufacturing line in Chile. The total investment involved is around $90 million, and the product, OSB, is a very interesting product for the construction segment because of its versatility and efficiency in construction, so very important operation there with the modernization of the mill that now operates in the new region in the south of Chile. Terpel went ahead with an asset sale. This involves the gas station operations, both in Ecuador and Peru.
These were two small operations, limited possibilities for growth there, very reduced margin, very competitive market, markets, which have been taking a toll on the margins and profitability of the operations there. And definitely worth more in the hands of third parties that may consolidate these operations. So these gas station operations were sold. Total amount is around $64 million. And it's important to note that Terpel will be holding on to those assets to which it carries on its most profitable operations in both Peru and Ecuador, which are essentially lubricants and also sales of fuel to the bulk segment.
Once again, we are carrying on with our philosophy of permanently reviewing and revisiting our portfolio of assets in order to find the best owner and see if the assets may eventually be worth more in the hands of certain third parties. Interesting sale here by Copec. Several developments also in ESG, as we have become used to show quarter- by- quarter. Copec signed an agreement with Transelec in order for Transelec to build a battery storage energy facility, battery energy storage facility in the north of Chile, for a total capacity of energy storage of 420 megawatt-hours.
This is gonna be linked to the Granja Solar assets, the solar generation assets that Copec had announced in the previous quarter, which of course makes a lot of sense since it gives stability to the potential electricity and power injection by Granja Solar. So once again, making further moves into the energy generation segment through renewables. Copec Voltex, which is the brand for electromobility, is also making progress. It announced a further terminal for buses, this time in the south of Chile, in the Biobío region. Abastible signed an agreement to develop the small green hydrogen project, to be developed for the production of fertilizers. Arauco has renewed its audit for the Forest Stewardship Council certification, which is a very important for the certification in terms of sustainable management of forests.
So this is always an important milestone for Arauco. This is an internationally recognized certification for the sustainable management of forests. And finally, Arauco reported the total fulfillment of projects associated with the sustainable bond issuances, amounting to approximately $500 million. So the sustainable bond issued by Arauco has already completed the uses in terms of sustainable projects that are assigned to that particular bond. With that, we have finished reviewing what we have prepared for you. I will invite Gianfranco and Cristián to join us in the second part of the presentation, and we welcome you to pose your questions through the Q&A chat that is available in the Zoom platform. So let's wait for Cristián, Gianfranco, and your questions. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will now start the Q&A session. If you have a question, please write it down in the Q&A section. Please remember that your company's name should be visible for your question to be taken. Please hold while we poll for questions.
Hello, everyone. Thank you for attending this webcast. I'm gonna start with the first question, comes from Marcio Farid at Goldman Sachs. Rodrigo, how should we think about Mina Justa potential expansion? If you can comment also on the latest acquisition in Europe, from Abastible, and is the internationalization a new trend?
Yeah, thanks, Marcelo, for your question. Thank you, Cristián. Yes, as we've said in previous calls, Mina Justa has a project which is called Mina Justa Underground or Subterranea, which involves an expansion of the mine, with a total increase, which is expected at 500,000 tons approx, for the life of mine. This would imply a five-year increase in the life of mine. The project is soon to be presented, potentially during this year, to the board for final approval. It should involve a CapEx of around $400 million. So that's what we have so far, and we will be giving more info when the project and if the project is approved, which should happen by the end of this year.
In relation to your second question, which is Abastible's acquisition of the Cepsa assets in Spain and Portugal. Yeah, as I said in the presentation, this is a very attractive acquisition, which has as drivers, essentially, a very good profitability, which we expect from the acquisition. A financial profitability, which should be very attractive, when you consider the very low risk of this business. This is a company that, as I said, should mean an increase in physical sales for Abastible of around 250,000 tons per year, which is a 14% increase in total volume for Abastible. But at the same time, it's a much more efficient operation than the other countries where Abastible operates, because of logistical efficiency and automation in general.
And therefore, margins are more attractive than margins at the other Abastible operations. So that's one thing. The company holds around 60% of the total market, and is the largest player in the non-regulated segment of the market. So that's it. The second part of the attractiveness of the acquisition comes from the strategic fit. As I said before, this is a market that is 10 or 20 years ahead of LATAM in terms of energy transition. And that should give us still an exposure to trends and new technologies that are being used in that market, and that could be eventually transferred to the local LATAM markets, where Abastible operates.
A very good strategic fit in order to prepare ourselves, and in order to find potential partners, in the Spanish and Portuguese market, in order to replicate those best practices in the local markets here. As a matter of fact, Abastible is entering a commercial agreement with Cepsa, in order to buy liquefied gas from Cepsa's refineries for a long period of time. That could eventually open up alternatives for different associations with these or other players in the market in Spain, and therefore, eventually bring those technologies and formats to the local markets.
So, in general, we will be giving some more information when and if the acquisition finally closes, which should happen after all the permits are issued, and that should be in two or three years, months timeframe.
Following on the same, Judith at Santander asked about the multiple for the acquisition. If you can give some color?
We have agreed not to give any further info up until the time when the transaction is closed. So we'll get back to you then with some more information.
Thank you, Rodrigo. I have Camilla Barder, Bradesco BBI. Rodrigo, do you can provide some figures for CapEx for 2025, and could we expect close to 2024 level of $1.7 billion?
Well, not yet. We're working on that. As we've said before, we have a maintenance CapEx, a base CapEx of around $900 million, or potentially $1 billion of maintenance. On top of that, we will have CapEx related to whatever projects are finally approved. But for the time being, we do have Zitácuaro going ahead, so there will be some remaining CapEx from Zitácuaro. We will have some CapEx related to Ñuble, which is the OSB mill that Arauco has just announced in the south of Chile, and a lot of the CapEx for next year, which will depend on what finally happens with Sucuriú, with the potential approval of Sucuriú, which could eventually take place by the end of this year.
Maybe Gianfranco, you would like to give some more color on the potential investment in Sucuriú?
Yeah, of course. I mean, in our case, the CapEx for 2025, and mostly also 2026 and 2027, will depend on the approval, potential approval of the Sucuriú project, which is a project that could be $3.5-$4 billion. So that's a big decision that we need to take until the end of the year. And if it's approved, probably the most of the CapEx will come in 2026 and 2027. A small portion will come at the beginning of the project. Right now we are doing earthworks in the site, so that takes some CapEx, and we are in the planting program, that we are planting about 50,000 hectares a year.
So that's taking some CapEx that we were gonna do anyway. But the big CapEx of the industrial CapEx will depend on the approval. So we will have a figure for 2025 once we have approval of the board of the project. If it's not, the project is not approved, probably the CapEx will be about $1 billion, something like that. But in our case, the maintenance CapEx is about $700 million, $800 mi llion, and on top of that, we have the project of the OSB mill already approved and the Zitácuaro mill in our, let's say, strategic growth plan that will be accomplished during 2025 .
Thank you, Gianfranco. Still on forestry, after the steep price drop over the last weeks, how many customers have already come back to the market? And looking ahead, how much further down you think can pulp prices go? On one hand, we have Chinese volumes here in the market, but on the other hand, we have very low inventories in the chain and seasonally stronger demand next month. So how do you reconcile these moving parts?
It's very difficult to predict in the pulp market. Of course, there has been a price drop in the last months or weeks. We are in the low season of demand, also in China. Negotiations are done at this moment. I mean, we are negotiating and closing some volumes, but I don't have the exact information, because it's currently happening in Asia. But I see customers going back to buy, and in terms of where the price would go, we really don't know. I think that the bottom should be higher than the last cycle, than last year, because the costs are high. Also, the inventory in the chain is lower than it was last year.
The only difference is that we have some mills ramping up. In the case of Cerrado, which we expect the volume to come more at the end of the year, and we have this mill in China, taking volumes and increasing the local supply of pulp. That's the only difference, but I think that the volumes should not be as low as it was last year, but things are going on at this moment. Negotiations are being done, and we have to wait until the decisions are finished.
Mm-hmm. And on the same line, can you please comment on your cost expectations along the next quarter in forestry? Do you expect any material impact from maintenance, second half of the year?
Not really, because, I mean, most of the annual stoppages of the pulp mills were done in the Q2, so we don't have a big maintenance coming up in the rest of the year. So we should have more production and less cost for maintenance. So we should see a lower unitary cost of production in all the type of fiber. That's what we expect. Of course, it depends on the production volume from the rest of the year, but we should expect better production and lower total cost of production.
Yes, I have a couple of questions. Marcos Faria, Goldman Sachs, and Santiago Alzueta, LarrainVial, asking about some color for September negotiations this year.
It's very difficult. We are negotiating August volumes at this moment, and so it's very difficult to predict. We are focused on closing volume for this month. It's far away, September. We need to see what happens with the current negotiation to what we expect with September.
Thank you. Vicente Navarro, Consorcio, how are the forest economics? How the lease works, when you say you have 70% of land by now, it's planted land or only land to be planted?
Well-
This is regarding Sucuriú.
Yeah, yeah, of course. I mean, you know, that in Brazil, foreigner cannot control a rural land. So we have, like about 40,000 hectares of land that we acquired before the interpretation of the law, so that is owned by us, 40,000 hectares planted already. And the rest, we have been doing different strategies, like for example, doing renting of the land, long term leases for 15-20 years, that you rent the land, and you plant the trees in the forest. We have some joint ventures, also with some funds over there, and we... The 70% is the one that we have already planted. Of course, we have more land available for planting, but we are planting every month, in the land that we have available.
So the land is not a restriction right now to the pace that we have.
Mm.
We are on good track. Our objective was to be in, like, 70%-80% before the approval of the project, and we are there already. Of course, during the construction, we will continue planting, and we'll have the forest cycle prepared for production, hopefully at the end of 20 27, beginning of 2028. Everything is going according to plan, and we have had good experiences with automated planting there. That's going according to plan.
And Rodrigo Godoy at Credicorp, still on Sucuriú, what is the level of leverage that would you feel comfortable to start the construction of Sucuriú? And then are you eventually open to develop the project with a partner?
At this point, we are focusing on developing ourselves the project. That's our objective. In the case of leverage, normally, and we have the experience of doing these kind of projects in Montes del Plata and also in the MAPA project, you during the construction, you reach a peak of leverage, and you're supposed to go down normal levels when the mill is producing. We expect to be in a good level for the approval of the project because of the sale of forests that we did and also for the operational results this year. We probably will be below three times at the end of the year. Of course, the leverage during the project will depend on the financing of the project.
That has to be defined already, depending on the size of the project, everything. So we'll decide how much is equity, debt, and the profile on that. We have to work on that. Of course, our idea always is to preserve the investment rate, and we will define the amount of leverage that we take in order to be to conserve the investment rate. That's our objective.
Great, thank you. And Rodrigo, do you estimate that Copec's cash flow under a scenario of softwood pulp prices going below $600 per ton would be enough to finance the construction of the project without resorting to a capital increase at Copec level?
That's part of the questions we have to analyze if we go ahead with Sucuriú. If Arauco goes ahead with Sucuriú, it is in our interest that both the company at a consolidated level and Arauco's associated companies stick to their respective Investment Grades. We have a very well-defined financial policy, where we have set a target range of indebtedness between two and three times measured on a 5-year average basis, and that is in line with what our S&P and Fitch require for the Investment Grade, so we have to reconcile both objectives, one is being able to finance the project and at the same time stay healthy in terms of
...In terms of credit metrics. For doing that, we have several sources of funds. You've seen that we every now and then we have gone around with sale of assets. We have a very strong balance sheet. We have a lot of hidden value in our balance sheet. You saw that Arauco went ahead with sale of assets in Brazil for an amount of more than $1 billion. We have gone ahead in the past with the sale of some assets in the fuel sector in the U.S., for example. We have announced some years ago that we are interested in selling Sonacol and potentially our stake in Metrogas. Those processes, especially the one at Sonacol, we still have the interest in going ahead with that process.
It was interrupted for a while, but it may now, given the liquidity requirements and, if we go ahead with Sucuriú especially, it may now go back on track. So all of that has to be evaluated, but the objectives are potentially to, as I said before, to be okay with the objectives of healthy balance sheet situation and being able to finance new investments.
You commented on the sale of assets. You can provide more color on the current situation of Sonacol and Metrogas sales?
Yeah, no, it's what I said. We launched this project some years ago. They were interrupted for several reasons. But they are assets which we believe may eventually be worth more in the hands of third parties, and that has been a driver for our decisions of sale of assets over the last time. So we would look again at the possibility of selling those assets. Sonacol is already classified in our balance sheet as assets held for sale. So that's definitely a source of liquidity that we may have in the future, and that would be very welcome. We would go ahead with projects as large as Sucuriú, so but not only Sonacol or Metrogas, we do have other potential sources of liquidity sometimes hidden in our balance sheets.
Thank you, Rodrigo, and Carlos Pena, Pena Invest, if you can comment if Copec could consider any profitable mining opportunity in there?
We have had a very good experience with our project at Mina Justa. During this time that we have contributed to operate Mina Justa, we have developed and enhanced our mining know-how within the company. We had a lot to do in Mina Justa. We still have a lot to do. We've announced this potential expansion, Mina Justa Subterranea, which should take place if it's approved by the board. It should take place as from next year onwards. After that, we still have a lot to explore at Mina Justa.
When we decided to enter this project, one of the great attractive factors that we saw in the project, in the Mina Justa project, was the fact that, the Mina Justa project, as it is right now, only uses up between 10 and 15% of the total mining property that is within Mina Justa. So there's still a very strong and large exploration potential. So there's still a lot to do within Mina Justa. Definitely, we will look at other alternatives in mining, starting with those that we have within the Mina Justa project.
Okay, I have Amit Bhargava at Santander. Gianfranco, a couple of questions. Were you able to allocate 100% of July, August volumes, if you are carrying excessive inventory? That's one. And can you give some kind of change on all cash costs?
As I mentioned, negotiations are going on at this moment, so I don't have the information of volumes allocated to customers. That's been going on for some weeks. Of course, normally August, the current month, is done more or less at the second part of the month, so of course not 100% of August. And so I don't have any details on those negotiations at this moment, but we are not carrying a lot of inventory. I mean, we haven't had to accumulate inventories in Chile because we were able to ship them, and we are, I think we're selling them. I don't have the definite numbers at this moment, right now.
In terms of cash costs, I don't know if you mean cash costs of Chinese competitors or us, but, you know, our cash costs are depending on the mill, but probably they are the same for all the markets. We don't have a special cash costs for China. The only thing is probably transportation, but our cash cost is similar, and, I mean, we are very competitive in terms of even at the prices that the market, over the prices. So we are- we have good competitive cash costs, especially when partners like MAPA and, and what's the other? They're very efficient in terms of producing pulp .
Thank you, Gianfranco. We're gonna move to some questions in energy. Rodrigo, if you can comment the impact of inventory revaluation in the fuel division in Q2, and how can we see fuel costs evolving in the next quarters?
Yes, thank you for the question. As we've said before, in general, what we see in the fuel segment are margins that are quite stable when measured in local currency in real terms. So inflation adjusted, they tend to be quite stable over time, but definitely there are some elements of volatility, and one of them is inventory revaluation. We did have negative inventory revaluation effect in the Q2 2024, but that negative effect was less negative than the comparative quarter last year. So in Q2 2023, we had around $20 million of negative effect. In the Q2 2024, we had around $10 million of negative effect.
So yeah, that's something to have in mind, and in effect, this gives some volatility to a margin that is otherwise very stable over time.
Vicente Navarro at Consorcio, with two questions in energy. How do you see fuel volumes of Copec and Terpel in the next years? And secondly, if you can, give more detail on the sale of gas stations in Ecuador and in Peru.
Yes. Well, Copec and Terpel volumes, in general, tend to move very much in line with the local economies. So, over time, we've seen them growing at 2%-3% per year on average, as a long-term average. And that will continue to be so probably for some years. What we are beginning to see, but very slightly, and it's a very small effect so far, but it should happen at some point, as we've said before, is electromobility gradually penetrating the local markets in LatAm. So still very small effect, but at some point in time, the fuels market potentially should cease to grow and gradually fade away, but very slowly over time. This is going to be a slow effect over time in LATAM, according to the information that we currently have.
But anyhow, even though this is a long-term effect, and very slow for the time being, at Copec, we have made the decision to prepare ourselves in advance for this changing scenario. We're doing many things as you know, we are trying to position ourselves as leaders in electromobility. We're working in developing other energy areas linked and under the Copec brand. We are working in developing assets that are related to Copec, complementary to Copec's assets, and they may contribute to maintain profitability over time, such as last mile logistics, for example, which is doing very well. And we are also working in a venture capital fund that allows us to have exposure and to have a stake in different companies that are involved in the areas where we participate in Copec.
So this is happening for Copec, and we are also transferring best practices in that regard to Terpel. So this is the way we're going to be tackling the advent of electromobility over time, which should eventually begin to hurt volumes in fuels, but as I said before, it's gonna be long-term and very slow.
Okay, thank you.
Sorry, you mentioned also the sale of assets in Ecuador and Peru as the last question by Vicente?
Yes.
Yes. That's what we sold there was exclusively the gas station operations in Ecuador and Peru. These were very small operations, non-profitable at the time. Growth was very hard to attain. We decided to sell them, because they would be worth more in the hands of other parties. We stuck to, we held on to the operations that are profitable, that are attractive for ourselves, such as lubricants and bulk sales, both in Ecuador and Peru. But once again, with the philosophy of always looking for the best owner for different assets and always reviewing our portfolio, Terpel has decided to sell those assets, so we think it's a value-adding operation, and we will be permanently looking at sources of liquidity and value generation, starting from the potential sale of assets.
Okay. Thank you, Rodrigo and Gianfranco. There are no more questions. I give you back for final words.
Okay, well, thank you all very much for joining today. We expect to meet sometime during the first two weeks of November, potentially for reviewing the results of the third quarter, and in the meantime, feel free, the lines are open to contact our IR team in case you have any further doubts. Thank you very much.
Thank you. This does conclude today's presentation. You may disconnect now, and have a nice day.