It's been a few years, and some of us have met in some instances, but certainly not in this format. The intention of this Capital Markets Day is just that at the safety briefing, the intention is not to give you a heart attack. Not a heart attack because things are fantastic and not a heart attack with things because things are awful. You know, we're gonna cruise through this. I don't think you will find a sensation, but our objective is that you will get some clarity on issues that are on your mind. I think for those of you who followed us for a long time, and many of you have, the issue of clarity that's been circulating in the investor community for a long time is what are the implication of the energy transition?
Obviously we will talk about that, but the transition we're in is affecting our company as a whole, in Food & Water, in Marine, as well as in Energy. We will pick up a little bit on the overall change of the environment and what we've been doing for a couple of years when we were sitting home, watching COVID raging the world. I figured if you allow me to just start on a somewhat of an anecdotal point. We do an annual trip with group management every year. It is partly a learning trip. This time we went to the Middle East just a couple of weeks ago.
Middle East has always been an important marketplace for us, and you may think in your mind that as we are turning off the gas and oil supply in the world, Middle East will disappear as an important marketplace for Alfa Laval. That's what you would think, right? Does somebody think that? Okay. Just for the story's sake, I thought that before I went to Middle East. Here are the numbers that you should keep in mind, and I'm not showing them to give you a projection. I'm just showing them because it's a microcosmos of what goes on in the world. If you start at the traditional oil and gas, that's a rather normal number. That is the cumulated number of the project value under study and evaluation. It's not this year's CapEx or next year CapEx.
It is a pipeline of projects that will mature, be executed or aborted. If you look at the CapEx conversion on the oil and gas pipeline, that translates to approximately $25 billion a year. That's a relatively normal number. Sometimes it's higher. You know, during COVID, it was lower. Western world told the Arabs to stop investing in fossil, they did. Now they came back and said, "What are you guys doing? Are you turning off the tap? You need to invest more." They got a little bit irritated, but they are increasing the spending now. They wonder a little bit what we are doing as a society, but this is the situation. It turns into about $25 billion.
If you look at our business, you know, apart from Food & Water and Marine, which is also in Middle East, that pipeline of oil and gas has been the majority of the project pipeline for Alfa Laval. What is less known is the fact that the Arab world is fairly committed to become the center for renewable production. It is not only out of saving the planet, it's because they have a source of free energy with the solar power, and they have the land mass to build solar power, and they are in a big scheme. Consequently, what are you gonna use it for? Well, you're gonna use it for hydrogen production. You're gonna use it for various chemical conversions into whatever fuel type that the world needs.
They are very committed to using the cash flow they generate from the oil and gas business, investing CapEx to become the world center for renewable energy production. That's what's going on. That was, in fact, the relatively well-known announcement of hydrogen in Neom City in Saudi Arabia, a project of about $6.5 billion that is now under construction and where obviously we are participating as a supplier. If you take those numbers, the pipeline of projects under study, including the recent Neom City that was already awarded, that pipeline is about $150 billion. If you go to renewables, and here they include hydro, and there's not that much hydro in the Middle East, as you know, that pipeline is also substantial.
You put another $200 billion into the bucket, and then you have the question of carbon capture. One of the discussion points at COP has been that, you know, COP wants to stop fossil, whereas the Arab position is we can do carbon capture at source. It's better to measure that way. They are fairly committed to drive towards the carbon capture side. If you convert the projects in terms of million tons for carbon capture, you get to about 30. The interesting thing when you look at Middle East from our point of view is that the project pipeline today far exceeds the value of the traditional oil and gas. I think that gives you sort of a little bit of sense for the dynamics.
If you want to put this into a spreadsheet in terms of what it means for Alfa Laval, I will caution you. There's a lot of things we don't know. Projects that are in oil and gas are well known, economics is well known, markets are well known. We know exactly what we're doing. The conversion has very little technical risk, very little commercial risk. It's well known. Here we are sitting with a big pipeline of SEK 400 billion of projects where there are a lot of unknowns. I would suspect that the conversion time and the conversion rate is gonna be significantly lower on the renewable side, at least for the next five years. It still points in a direction where you add on a completely new business layer for us versus the traditional oil and gas.
Conversion rate is gonna be lower, but you should also be aware that the thermal processes for oil and gas, Mother Earth already took care of. When we look at the renewable side, obviously the need and value of Alfa Laval technology per invested dollar is gonna be higher. You know, how much higher depends on your count. We'd be cautious to give you a number, but there is an upside in terms of the share of the project value. There's a downside in terms of conversion into commercial projects. That's a little bit how the world looks like, and this is our, you know, the big guessing game for us, for you, and for everybody. How is this gonna go forward? In what pace? The direction is clear. Pace is unknown. Much for Middle East.
Now if we're gonna be the world leaders in providing the technologies into clean energy, sustainable performance of industrial processes, we gotta start a little bit with a home base. We have. We put ourselves some pretty aggressive targets a couple of years ago without knowing how to get there, and we're not fully there. I suspect that next Capital Markets Day you're gonna have a pretty detailed review on how does the carbon neutrality look like. Carbon neutrality is obviously not the only sustainability issue we're working with, but for this context, we thought that might be the most relevant point. Let me just sketch out a little bit how this looks like for us at this moment.
Our objective is to be net zero in our own operation and cut this Scope 3 with 50% with 2020 as a baseline by 2030. Right? If we look at our own operations, we are pretty comfortable that we have a path. We can see the path to how we get there. It's not rocket science. It's some CapEx. It's some changes. It's some fuel changes. It's some traveling changes. You know, by and large, how we get to net zero in operation is not rocket science. Our vision is to be there 2030. I think it's doable. The bad news with that is that's a very small part of our CO2 impact on the value chain.
We have a reasonable impact in upstream sourcing. Our path to get to a reduction on that side is clearly going through the issue of metals. We are big metals buyers, and metal and steel production and titanium production is relatively carbon intensive today, but you also know and are well aware about the trends are going towards fossil-free steel production. We are working with Outokumpu. We are working with SSAB. I think we are blessed of having the lead front runner on this issue around our doorstep, and we are important for them. For them to showcase their steel in energy efficiency solutions is very much more interesting than to showcase them on a truck.
We actually, we are a very good, you know, display for these type of technology, for our type of applications going very wide. That work will continue to progress. I think the way it's gonna look is that we will increasingly turn to scrap process on our raw materials suppliers accounting for significantly less CO2. Eventually, we expect that we will have, you know, fossil-free production based on hydrogen or other methods coming in towards 2030. That path, the way we look at it today, looks reasonable in terms of getting there. The by far biggest issue we have is the use phase of our products, and it is specifically our rotating equipment that is consuming. You know, 100 years of installing rotating equipment around the world is a huge install base. It's running 24/7.
It consumes enormous amount of energy. The way the electrical system looks today in the world, a fair amount of that is coal-based electricity, consequently transferring itself to a huge CO2 liability. Now you may ask, you know, how do you convert that energy consumption to 50% reduction by 2030? There are two levers for this, one that we affect and one that we don't affect. The first effect is that Nish and his team thought about it long and hard for 130 years and finally concluded that vacuum technology reducing friction will take out a lot of the electricity consumption. We can run our equipment approximately at twice the efficiency level than we did five years ago. We are selling it.
You know, it is not, you know, the payback on the technology itself is less than three years. It's a slam dunk from an economic point of view. It's a super necessity from a CO2 point of view. Everything that goes out replacing the old stuff is taking a big step in this direction. Of course, you get to the question, will we see a replacement process, making the old equipment less usable? Retrofits, I think, is gonna be very difficult. In, in reality, we are looking at maybe an acceleration of replacement of old. That will take part, you know, deal with part of it, but obviously the whole installed base globally will not be replaced by 2030. That's obvious.
The other part that we need to count on is that the renewable or green energy transformation is happening among utilities, that the electricity sourcing that is still there is doing its share. Give it to 25, we'll get to 50, and then more or less we are done with our 2030 target. The difference today compared to when we set the target is we actually have a pretty good idea how to get there. You know, it's not easy, it's not clear-cut, we don't control everything, but we have a good way of measuring it, operating it, and work towards, like we do with any target. You know, try to get there, set the target, have a deviation, act, adjust.
At this point in time, that is now being decentralized out in operational this organization, just like financials. Our reporting is gonna be based on a line reporting structure, just like we do with everything else. It's part of business as usual. I think this is gonna do good for us in terms of how we affect our planet, but I also think that for our customers, this is gonna be a competitive issue. I don't wanna take the bet that our customers don't care in 2030. My bet is that they will care greatly, and people who avoid dealing with the situation is gonna have some trouble in every sourcing discussion that they are sitting. That's where we are in terms of our own work in our own house. You're not here primarily to hear about that.
You are here to understand how we are impacting our customers and what impact it has for our business. Let's move on to that. We're gonna skin the cat in a slightly different way initially. We'll be back to the divisional perspective in a little while. I just want you to get a picture for what is the dynamics in our portfolio right now, all these startups and joint ventures and partnerships and, you know, where is all that? We've done a little exercise. I hope you might get confused on a higher level, or you might find it helpful for understanding what we're doing. you know, we have... we are running rate of about SEK 56 billion at the moment in terms of order intake.
If you put that into three buckets, biggest bucket is you can call it Alfa Laval classic, you can call it, you know, evolving the business we have. These are known technologies, known applications that we've been working with for years. It's the base of our business. In that bucket, you find our traditional oil lubrication for Marine, you find a whole Food & Water pumps and valves business ran out of Kolding, you find a whole service business. You know, most of what you who have followed us for 10 years have been used to looking at. It's a pretty lively business. We are not at the end of developing that part. In one sense, you could say we're at the beginning. The whole strategy period that you follow 2016 - 2020 was putting the house in order to run our existing businesses better.
We invested massively in product development, massively in the distribution chains, massively in sales for specialization and competence development. What you've seen is a growth rate above market and a market share gain that is actually probably in the beginning, right? When we started to invest in product development in 2016, not a single product was out until 2019. It's still a recent event. Most of the things we've done in that strategy period, it's time to harvest at this point in time. I'm not gonna go through the details, but I'm just gonna use, you know, one slide on service as an example. These are the service revenue numbers coming out over the last... I use a longer time series here for you get- to- get some perspective on it.
Our service business now is up between SEK 16 billion-SEK 17 billion. It was not so long ago, we were at SEK 10 billion. We thought that was a decent number. There's a number of reasons for growth. One is that our install base is bigger. Number two is we have a lot better control of our install base historically than we had years ago. We have widened the scope of our service. We do more service for non-Alfa Laval equipment at customer sites today than we did before. We have a better remote service offering than we had before. We have more connected equipment than we had before. We are selling more service agreements than we ever did before. We are capturing more of that revenue than we did before.
Maybe we have a little bit of pent-up service needs from COVID that is also playing into the numbers, making them a little bit accelerated compared to what that otherwise would have been. All in all, it's just telling us that we're on the right path when it comes to develop the service business. The situation, if I would go through some of the product groups in this bucket of Alfa Laval classic, that's the situation we are in. All right. Alfa Laval would be fine doing just this. It's not the only thing we're doing. We go to bucket number two, and we call that one expand.
In expand, we group together traditional Alfa Laval product technologies and platforms into those areas of energy transition and consumer behavior change that are fundamentally not driven by GDP or economic growth or more people moving into urban cities or these type of general macro trends. Here are the one, the product items that are specifically accelerated due to energy transition, consumer changes, and all of that. That's a bucket of approximately SEK 15 billion. You can argue a bit exactly what you put where, but in our definition for, you know, the purpose of some clarity, you know, we would put it to SEK 15 billion approximately. What's in there? This is not all that is in there, but these are important businesses that are in there. There are two businesses that are accounting for a relatively large share of the SEK 15 billion.
It is the whole investment boom into HVO that we expect will continue for another four or five years. It was also one of the rationale for our Desmet acquisition and take a world leadership position in HVO. As HVO phase out, at some point in time when feedstock is limited, we may have another wave going towards forest products, that is gonna take over, let's say, the biofuel side, and we have biogas applications and other things. On the biofuel side, this is absolutely a core thing for us. The other part that I think you're more aware of than anything is the heat pump business. Our technology for heat pumps and efficiency in heat transfer is, of course, in a booming situation, and you will hear more about that.
There are other interesting applications in here that you did not find in Alfa Laval five, 10 years ago. Data centers is one of them. Carbon capture is just emerging as we speak. The multi-fuels in Marine started after confusion as to whether the fuel would be gas or oil or both or hydrogen or methanol. Today, most of the ships on order are being replaced with multi-fuel, solution, which gives an additional business opportunity for Alfa Laval compared to. You know, this is giving you a flavor for what is driving us in terms of acceleration in traditional product technologies in a more aggressive way than historically. The story could end here, but it doesn't. There is a third bucket. That third bucket comes from a repositioning of what we do at Alfa Laval.
You know, when you change the problem you're trying to solve, the answers start to change. From, let's say, a corporate growth story, we could well run the race in this direction. To some degree, we have challenged ourselves in terms of what is the problem we are trying to solve. Let me use the Marine Division as an example of that. In the Marine Division, historically, we defined our role to optimize the fuel systems, the wastewater systems, the steam system, and find ways of doing that better. Today, Sameer's definition of the role of the Marine Division is to have the toolbox for shipowners to cut their CO2 emissions with 50%. If that's the problem we are solving, the toolbox we had for dealing with steam and multi-fuels and ballast water was not enough.
We needed to find a different toolbox that went outside of existing technologies, outside of the capabilities we had. This is how our slightly more experimental part of the product portfolio came together. The one that makes the headlines is the collaboration with ABBA and Wallenius on Oceanbird. You see the wings or the sails here. That portfolio of products or initiatives is quite broad. Some of this is acquisitions, some of these are consortias, some are joint ventures, and some are our own product innovations. We moved outside and beyond traditional product platforms in order to address some of these questions and challenges. Now we are probably running somewhere just north of SEK 1 billion at the moment. This is not...
I got some question of, oh, this platform, oh, it's costing a lot of money, oh, it's a drag on margins. Yeah, it doesn't help the margins at the moment. Rest assured, out of these initiatives, StormGeo is bigger than when we bought it and more profitable than when we bought it. single use in biotech is in the market, is making money. You will see more about it today. It's a well-running business. aquaculture, it's launched, it's running. It's a couple of hundred million SEK. You know, it's going. We're not losing money on it. E-PowerPack is recently launched. You will hear more about it. It's on the shelf. You can buy one when you leave the room today, no problem, and we will make some money on it. This is not a 10-year innovation product development exercise.
We've done part of that job before we told you, right? Now we are in the process. I would expect that, you know, a decision commercialization of fuel cells is around the corner, maybe sometime second half 2023. The first, you know, pilot projects, commercial products for multi-energy storage is most likely in 2023. Oceanbird is a couple of years away, but our hope is to have the first wings on the ship in 2025. Customers already agreed. You know, come 2025, you know, some of these might be dead. Most of them will be making money. My tongue slipped in an interview with a journalist yesterday indicating that, you know, certainly this has the potential to reach the SEK 10 billion revenue potential sort of within this decade, by far. We'll see.
We are at 1.1 plus today. If we get the technology to work and the demand to work, this is going to accelerate our growth further. These are the sort of the three buckets and most of today, you will learn about these things, and you will meet some of the people who are working with it, and you will say, "This was interesting." It's not going to be super helpful in making you predict our P&L 2025 and 2027. We're not trying to pinpoint that, but we're trying to show you how we participate in these areas and how we think about it and where we are in terms of timeline. That's that. That's the three buckets.
I will come back to a little bit in terms of capital allocation on this in just a little while. From my point of view, I feel we are relatively balanced. We are 40 in traditional, know what we're doing. We are 15 running the rat race to try to capture demand growth and balance our supply chains. SEK 1 billion exploring some new frontier from a technology point of view. We are not betting the firm, but we are putting some bets out there that we think are very sensible. That's, that's how we are shaping our future during the 2020s. Now let's leave all that and go back to what you guys normally see. You know, the group, the divisions, order intake, margins. I will comment a bit on...
We're gonna leave financials pretty much with that on this year. We are back in an earnings call in a couple of months, so we always talk about it. Let me just touch on it so you know where we are financially. I tried to give you some flavor for what is the growth drivers now and going forward. I think it's obvious for all of you that this is not something that we plan for the future. We're in the middle of it, right? The growth that you're seeing. Okay, if I would ask for some understanding as to balancing supply chain has been a bit of a challenge.
If you look at the numbers in 2020 when COVID hit, you know, our running rate in order intake was, you know, somewhere north of 30, around SEK 35 billion at the time. Things look a little bit grim. Now running rate is 56. It's only two years ago. There's not a single CapEx decision that from board decision to up and running is faster than two years. We didn't dimension ourselves to run a 56 billion business in 2020. We were trying to survive an unknown situation. Consequently, you know, the load, workload that this has put on us has been rather tricky in a situation of other challenges going on, including in supply chains. As you've seen, we have not been able to invoice on the same level in growth as the order intake.
Order book today is SEK 40 billion. It used to be SEK 20 plus. I wish it was smaller, but okay. It's a nice cushion to have. It's integrity in the order book. We are not worried about cancellation. We always have some, but, you know, these are all prepaid orders that are booked with 15% down payments, project commitments from customers. We don't, we are not particularly worried about that going forward. What might be interesting for you to reflect on is that if you look at our industrial system utilization, we've never been running at SEK 56 billion in the industrial system. We are not there yet. We take a 10%-15% downturn in the order intake pace, and we start to balance our production capacity with actual demand.
The situation is actually somewhat more complex because if our lead times were shorter, if we could say yes to more, if we didn't have to say no to customers, our order intake would have exceeded SEK 56 billion by now. We can take a market adjustment on this, not an economic disaster, but a clear downsizing of market demand without having too much of an effect on our deliveries, utilization rates, and all of that. In terms of margins, you know well the 15% target that we have. I sometimes call it the floor.
Many of you have through years asked, "Given that you are always above 15, why don't you up your target?" My answer to that has been, we don't want to say no to attractive business that run at 15 or 14 or 13 and consequently don't, you know, escape to some sort of profit retreat. Desmet was one of those example. It's a wonderful engineering company. It fits perfect. Good synergies. World-leading position together with us in vegetable oil. In an engineering business, you don't make 17%, you know? We have a target of 10 plus, and that's where we are in our own engineering business right now. Return on capital is wonderful. Cash flow is wonderful. Margins are quite okay. From a shareholder, I think it's a good business.
It doesn't help us get up to the 18%, but it certainly helps us making dollars. Our margin has been relatively stable throughout. It would have been better could we invoice better. If we catch up, that has an effect. In the quarter, as you know from the earnings call, the Desmet integration was costing us something on the margin, and the Marine situation was a bit worse than you expected. I will come back to that. All in all, we feel quite good in terms of where we are in our operating model on that. Some quick words on the divisional side. Food & Water, you tend to think of it as a stable business, and so do I, except that it hasn't been so stable lately. It's been growing rather quick.
Nish has been selling too much. It brought us now together with this Desmet business above $ 2 billion. It's the biggest division we have. The question has been out there, why are we growing so fast? We are not sure. I would say that the work that has been done on channel partners and on the distribution chain, the work that is done on the product platform and product technology, and the specialization of our sales and service teams into advanced technical solution for rotating has been the three things that have made us stronger, and we have not quite seen competition following us. I think it's fair to say at this point in time, that there has been market share gains in our core business of Food & Water over the last four years.
That took us to where we are. In terms of margin, it is a bit more stable, as you can see. It is because it is a more predictable business. We have a lot of recurring revenue, we have a lot of transactional business, we have a lot of distribution business, which is predictable in that sense. So we have a good base for growing margin. The difference now compared to four or five years ago, if you would take one single thing, and we comment on the number of times, is that we dealt with the quality problems we had four years ago. That has taken a huge cost, time consumer, and demotivator for customers and for our organization out of the equation. This is now running as a very steady ship, including in the engineering business.
That is the structural difference as to where we were five, six years ago. All right. We have the Energy Division. As you can see from the numbers, you know, we are not waiting for the energy transition to start. It is here. I wish I could say that this is only green and new and funny. In fact, we also see an uptick in the oil and gas cycle, right? Our communication to you has been that our expectation is that the CapEx side of oil and gas, we expect that to be more or less completed, phased out by 2020. Expect that we gradually move out, and that's exactly what we actually are doing consciously in prioritization, in R&D, capital allocation, and some other discrete decisions.
With that said, at this moment, the demand from offshore and to some degree now also onshore, and certainly driven to a high degree by gas than by oil at this point in time, that uptick is visible in our order books, both in the Energy Division and in the Marine offshore side. We actually have almost a perfect storm in traditional growing and renewable and efficiency growing. That's what you see in those numbers. We have been reasonably successful in working with the margins on energy. I think, you know, Thomas in the Energy Division has had one advantage compared to his divisional colleagues, and that is we don't have a lot of difficult components, electronics that goes into a heat exchange. As long as we get the metal, we can make the product.
The supply chain in this area has been a little bit more predictable and better to manage. That's one aspect. I would say the second aspect is that we have been troubleshooting and resolving some units in the Energy Division that's been drags. As we communicated at the last earnings call, the restructuring program that we are now launching is dealing with part of the Business Unit Welded Business, which is a traditional fossil-oriented, large project, low service, component type of business. We needed to redo it and reposition it done, and we're doing that now. Although the margins on a divisional level are good, we are seeking the problems where they are, and we are dealing with that problem now.
From a mix point of view, I think we're coming out stronger now than we did historically. The volatility in the demand trends from the historical oil and gas side, which was 40% years ago, with a huge part of the profitability, is now down to a relatively small part with below average profitability. Our bottom line is not so exposed to what's happened in the fossil side going forward. All right. We come to Marine. The Marine Division, those order intake numbers are kind of interesting. I remind you that, you know, 2016 when we met, everybody was asking, "What's gonna happen with the retrofit?" Right? We had two retrofit booms ahead of us. One was ballast water, and the other one was scrubbers.
I think we predicted those markets relatively well. We knew approximately the pricing of those system. We knew approximately the number of ships. We also knew that we would come to an end of a retrofit period where those markets would collapse. Starting in 2016, 2017, knowing there was approximately five year time horizon, that puts us to approximately where we are today. Right? While we had some glory in order intake 2018, 2019, especially supported by scrubbers, but also to a degree of ballast water, of course, the orders came big time. The running rate from those retrofit parts in that time period was somewhere north of SEK 4 billion-SEK 4.5 billion on an annual basis.
If you look at the SEK 20 billion order intake a quarter, was coming from temporarily funded retrofit projects that we knew would come to an end. If you look at the order intake now at this point in time, we are back to those level, scrubbers are gone, and ballast water is in decline. We are rather pleased with how the product portfolio, our position in the market, and despite relatively low contracting, that we've still been able to make the numbers in terms of order intake. I think that's a strength from the division. The one number that you don't like is coming here. That is the question of what's been happening with the margin. The bigger question that you have is what's gonna happen in the future?
We're not so particularly keen on guiding you on margins in the future. Let me give you some comments and flavor and context of this and then we'll leave that until we meet on earnings call for Q4. This is approximately the margin bridge compared to where we were beginning of this year. Now, we were peaking at above 16%. That was an elevated level. There was a fair amount of very concentrated scrubber earnings in the numbers when they were even better. Coming into this year, we had to face a number of situations, some completely expected and some came a bit quicker than we expected. First of all, we came to the end of the retrofit period. The scrubber retrofit period came abruptly to an end. We had been running that business at SEK 4 billion.
We had to resize it, readjust it, and get into shape for something substantially smaller. In parallel to that, during the second half of this year, we've seen the ballast water retrofit coming to an end of a period, meaning that also that business need to readjust it into a long-term new build service type of business. Now, those two are not coming back in volumes. My expectations is, A, we will get our cost levels down based on the restructuring program and other activities. B, they will turn to smaller businesses with a higher service component, because the service is gonna be out there for the lifetime of the ship. We will have some new build sales that may not be super profitable, but nevertheless keeps us in the market as a sizable player.
I think for the retrofit in terms of margin, we are taking the hit at the moment. I can't see that there is a reason for us not to return to some sort of normality in those businesses. We are, as you know, sharing the JV profits on Pure Ballast, which makes, you know, the margins pressure a little bit heavier for us when we're taking the hit of downscaling it at the same time. It was a bit of a double whammy. That eats a part of the difference between 16 and 10. The second part was the issue about tanker contracting. The tanker contracting for us is the hardest one to follow because orders tend to come to us. That's the only place where orders typically come before hull registration reaches Clarksons' data.
Our order booking for cargo pumping specifically is ahead of the market data, and very often it happens relatively quickly for us. It's not that we don't know of the project, it's just they materialize and convert very, very quickly. The difference of converting within a quarter or next quarter or even two quarters is a normal game for us that we actually don't necessarily know exactly. Of course, we've been watching a tanker market, which is on probably the historic low ever in history, despite the fact that the tanker owners is making more money than they ever done before. It's a super cash flow. It's an aging fleet. There is an underlying demand. There is a yard with a long order book and a fairly long delivery times for new ships.
At this point in time, as we round the clock and we didn't see the refill on the waters, we started to run dry on the product line for cargo pumping. That is a good item for us. We not only lost utilization, we're actually starting to lose in mix as well. Had it been any other product line, you wouldn't have seen the implications so big in this one, because it is a very attractive business for us. The implications of downsizing that relatively quickly, and perhaps a little bit faster than we expected, was creating a problem. The second issue with that, why the numbers were a little bit more tougher, was the fact that we're a little bit out of whack with our hedging policies.
Since this is NOK-based products, completely sold in dollars, the huge currency volatility that we had was making the hedge profits and losses a lot bigger than they normally were. In some delays on contracts, we were actually, you know, not in sync with our hedging. Half of the profitability problem from the pumping side came from hedging, right? That made the number a bit graver than it otherwise would have been. If I look at that going forward, the issue is not the structural integrity of the business. We are maintaining our capacity, our capability, our price point, you know, the whole context of the business, without increased tanker contracting, the volumes are not coming back, right? When is that gonna happen? Your guess is as good as mine.
We tend to take quarter- by- quarter and say it is what it is. We haven't seen it yet. We could see conversion of slots at the yards making this happening quicker because of profitability in the, on the rates. You know, we just, at this point in time, have to accept that for the next couple of quarters, that's probably what we have to live with. At some point in time, we will see this picking up. When it does, we are back into normality. The third issue is the boiler backlog. This one we talked about for a year. It's a long order book. It's a competitive area. It is in China. It's Chinese raw material, Chinese steel prices, non-renegotiable in the contracts, that the way it's always been.
We've been working off that order book now during this year. We have a little bit left to go. I think as we move into next year, we will see it ease somewhat. It's not a super fantastic business. It does not add up completely to where we wanna be. I guess for us, as we look into second half of 2023, we start to expect that we will see elements of stability and improvement going forward. That's the biggest forecasting comment on margins you will ever hear from me. All right. Finally, as you know, we announced a restructuring program. We expect that about 500 people will leave us. It's not a net number because we are growing in some other areas. What I wanna say about that is this is not because of a weak Q3 in Marine.
This is pre-planned since a year ago, dealing with Welded Business Unit in Energy, dealing with the ramp down of the retrofit periods and adjustments of capacity in the retrofit area, and taking some other measures in our organization to make sure that we're going in the right way. If you want a picture of one foot on the gas and one foot on the brake, this is exactly it. At SEK 56 billion, we are growing like crazy. We are working hard for capacity. At the same time, we need to downsize part of the organization to the underlying demand, we're really going both ways here. The net number, I'm not gonna give you, I'm not sure what it will be, but we will of course add capacity in some of the areas where we are growing. That's about the round off.
Let me make a final comment. We announced today a CapEx program of about SEK 1 billion. That CapEx program is dedicated towards gasket, the plate heat exchanger. The world's biggest factory is in Lund. The main capacity and distribution center activities will be centered around Lund. From a CapEx point of view, we're growing the core platform, both in existing and new applications for the gasket hub. We are adding capacity in China. It has been our second production hub. We haven't given up on China. It's still a place for us where we need to expand capacity because that's where we have the full capabilities, but we are also placing part of the capital in India.
I think for you, that should just signals that as we think about the geopolitics and how we develop our global supply chain, I think it's likely that India, and possibly some other part of Southeast Asia, will start to be more of a growing operational hub for us. Maybe China is approximately where it is for the future, and we're gonna continue to work with it as such. The program is in line with our guidance of SEK 2 billion, two and a half billion SEK over three years. Just so you know, a very large part of this is going to growing our capacities in heat transfer in Energy Division. Very little is going to exploratory business with Oceanbird and Revos and all of that. Some is going to new applications in the bucket of expand.
You know, in reality, these are low risk, you know, well-judged capacity extension, keeping in pace with the underlying demand. Of course, when we do, when we do this, and the reason we wanna be clear about it is that when we judge the next coming years with all the concerns that we have and all the readiness we have to manage that situation, at the end of the day, we believe the structural direction of the energy transition and what's gonna happen is gonna carry through these years. So we're not holding back on the growth plans that we started a couple of years ago. That's almost all. I also then have the pleasure to welcome Fredrik on stage. I'm not gonna introduce you other than saying, nice to have you, buddy.
Mm-hmm.
Why don't you give a few words about yourself?
Absolutely. Good morning, everyone. My name is Fredrik Ekström, and as Tom just pointed out, I'm the newly appointed CFO for the Alfa Laval Group. New to the job, absolutely not new to Alfa Laval. In fact, I've been with the company for 24 years. 14 years within controlling and finance that have taken me from Sweden to the Middle East to Asia, and 10 years in the line of business, which have taken me from Italy to Sweden. Latest, as the business unit president for Brazed and Fusion Bonded Heat Exchangers, which we'll hear a little bit more about today, which also hosts the heat pump initiative, which Thomas will go into more detail about. Joining Alfa Laval as a CFO in this time is incredibly exciting, of course.
We have energy efficiency and clean energy, which are going to solve the problem we have with decarbonized demand of energy. We have Food & Water, which are working, of course, to feed and nurture more of us. We have Marine, which is then reinventing itself from a point of view and championing decarbonization of an industry and, of course, environmental legislation. Exciting time. All of these mega trends are going to need the allocation of capital. That's an important one. Strategic prioritization, another important one. Really exciting time. We haven't even spoken about digitalization, and we haven't spoken about new business models. There's a lot left to do. Now we head into Q4, the closing of the quarter and the closing of the year. Of course, that will be an intensive period.
After that period, I look forward to establishing a dialogue with all of you. I look forward to listening to your comments about how we communicate our numbers and how we should communicate our numbers. For now, I'm gonna wish you a fantastic Capital Markets Day. We have lots of products and insights to share with you today. I wish you a really nice day. Tom?
Thank you. With that, we're gonna go to the divisional reviews, and I think I welcome Nish on stage. Are you gonna continue to grow the Food & Water Division?
Good morning. First of all, I like to say that the only way I could be on stage today was for me to host this event in Søborg. If you remember last year, for the right reasons, we had two divisions presenting at the Capital Market Day. I couldn't miss out. I volunteered that we would host it here. I'm sure you'll have a good day here with plenty of things to see. In my presentation, I'll cover four main topics. Tom has given a little bit of a update on the financial. I haven't got as good a chance as his to give you. I'll share with you some direction of where we've been on Food & Water.
I would like to share with you where we are when it comes to the mix of industries as well as our business units, to give you a flavor of how we're set up and working. After that, I would like to touch on two structural opportunities, and you heard them today. They're part of the expand version that Tom presented, and I'll come back to those. Finish off with giving you an update on where we are with Desmet and how we are working with Desmet going forward. With that, let me start with financials. On this chart, you see the actual CAGR that we've achieved. CAGR for last three years has been more than 13%.
What's also good to see that since we created the new organization, the CAGR has been greater than 9% over the last six years to the end of September 2022. I think all of you agree that we've had a good growth over the period. What is also good to see is that our after-sales business has also started to pick up and ramp up. Over the last three years, we're greater than 8%, and if we start looking back to the new organizational structure, we're more than 6%. What this also shows is that in this last six-year period, we've increased the amount of machines in the field. The installed base has increased. What that means is that we expect to see the growth in our service business continuing at the pace that we have seen over the last few years. Moving on.
Technical leadership, technology leadership is the heart of Food & Water. If we look back at the six-year period, and I think Tom did mention in his presentation as well, we have substantially increased the amount of investment R&D that we make in our product development. What is very clear is over the last six years, we've seen the increase of product releases. The pace of release today is more than double the pace it used to be. What that shows is that we are on the right track, and product development is not something that happens in short periods. We are now releasing products at a much greater pace, which should again put us in a good situation going forward.
If we look at our product development and look at our business that we have got, as I said, 13% CAGR for capital sales and total service sales together. The capital sales is even higher. One of the main reasons for that is because we have regained product leadership across a number of our products. The market has certainly not grown at the pace we have been growing. We have gained market shares, and we will, I am sure, continue to gain market shares with a large pipeline of all projects that we're working in R&D as well. Let me share with you the mix of industry and business unit, and I'll start with business unit. We have six business units now. We were five, and we've added Desmet.
As you can see from the pie chart here, the largest business unit is hygienic fluid handling, roughly 30% of the total turnover, followed by decanter food system and high speed, which are just below 20%. You see food heat transfer as our smallest business unit. On the picture, you see Desmet as the smallest. To clarify, business for Desmet in this period was really only for two months out of the nine. If I look at the annual pace of this business, they should be something around SEK 400 million+. They would be the second biggest business unit in Food & Water. Briefly, the industry dimension, dairy and food and beverage are the biggest part of our businesses.
Over this period, I would say, including this year, we've had growth almost across all of our industry segments that are shown on the pie chart here and across all the geographies as well. Where we go forward, I would say, is that there are plenty of opportunities when it comes to new areas to look at, and I'll come back onto those in a minute. Before I do that, Tom touched on sustainability. As a group, we have a sustainability target, but I would say that today I can stand up and say that we also have really a good handshake on the target per business unit. Business unit targets are very clear. What I want to share with you today is more of what we will do in the Scope 3 for our customers or what we call the user face.
That's where we see the biggest opportunity, and that's where we're working quite hard to make sure that we do our part to reduce the CO2 and to reduce the gas emissions. The two that are different for Food & Water compared to the Group, and I'm sure you've seen the Group's sustainability picture like this. For Food & Water, we have two additions. Water is, of course, one of them, and then sustainable food. Water is something that we know of water scarcity and opportunities water will bring, and we are continuously looking to both use our products that we have to optimize the use of water, to optimize the reuse of water, and also clean the water for food production.
We're also in the business today, I would say, to look out for opportunities because we do believe water is something that will be growing at a bigger pace, and the need for water scarcity also will give us opportunities to add more products going forward. Sustainable food is an area that is part of the transformation in the food industry, and there are a number of things that are happening to make sure that the food industry is also operating more effectively, efficiently. Where number of customers are now pushing more and more into adding more and more efficiency to get more and more out of the raw material, i.e. increase the yield. We see that across the number of different industries, and we'll give you some examples of couple that we have today.
When it comes to sustainability for food production, 30% of gas emissions come from food production globally. There's a lot of opportunities there. On top of that, it is predicted by 2050, the population will grow to 11 billion, which will mean we'll need 70% more food. Certainly, the opportunities for food will continue to be there, and there'll be plenty of opportunities to also work with sustainability side of things there as well. Two examples of structural growth drivers. The first one, and you've heard of this before, is a hydrotreated vegetable oil. The main driver for hydrotreated vegetable oil is the decarbonization for particularly transport industry. A lot of oil companies are combining with the producers also of vegetable oil and in combination, creating plants.
There's a lot of drive for renewables across the oil industry, but also we see the edible oil manufacturers joining forces now. Initially, it was mainly oil treatment in with the refinery that is existing. Gradually, we see more and more complete greenfields coming up where we would see also HVO plants and processes put coming together. We saw the beginning of 2020, the production was around seven megatons of oil, and that is expected to triple by 2025 to just over 20 at a CAGR of 20%. This will continue at least until 2030. You can see, the CAGR from 25-30 is still at 10%, and we would expect 2030 to be almost at 33 megatons of production. A lot of activities happening around the world.
We say it started in Europe, but today the most of the activity is in Americas. There's a lot of incentive in Americas to really make this happen and it's gathering pace. We also are now starting to see the activity spread more to the east, and certainly China, but also in other Southeast Asia parts where we see a number of projects that are coming through. This we see as a big opportunity for us in Food & Water over the next few years. What is our role when it comes to HVO? Our role is really on the yellow bubble there, which is to treat the feed. Why do we need to treat the feed? Well, we need to treat the feed because the feed comes with a lot of contaminants that we need to really remove.
To remove to make sure that the actual final process for HVO is quite efficient. Even more importantly, the catalyst that is used in the process has a good extended life. Things that we remove from the feedstock. Feedstock at the moment, most of the feedstock is used, edible oil and also fat from rendering plants. We need to remove the chlorides. We need to remove the phosphates from there. We also need to make sure that we remove things like polyethylene. We provide different unit operations depending on what needs to be cleaned in these. The process is very similar to the edible oil process that we have, and that's why it's kept together as edible oil process really. The outcome of our process on the cleaning, in cleaning the oil is also water.
We also have solutions to also make sure that we reuse the water 100%, recycle the water back in. We provide solutions to clean the water as well. Of course, then it goes to the refineries, where they have the hydrocrackers, where they would add hydrogen and produce renewable energy. Along with that, they would also have sulfur recovery and many other products as well. The second example I have is around alternative proteins. Some of you yesterday asked me in our meeting yesterday evening, "What are you doing? Geir talks about new foods." For us, alternate protein is one part of our structural growth drivers. As you can see on the chart here, the growth is coming in a good way, starting at today.
It was almost just over 2% of the total alternative proteins comes from plant-based proteins. This is a study by Horizon and DCG, and that is expected to grow up to 11% of the total, but may be at an optimistic level of 16% of the total protein consumption will be come from alternative proteins. The main driver here is sustainability. Also people are feeling that they need to go into healthier foods, and the habits are changing. If I just look at the sustainability angle, by 2035, if the market goes as predicted here, then we would save one gigaton of CO2. That is equivalent to Japan being carbon-free every year. On top of that, we would also save enough water to supply the City of London for 40 years.
You could see that these are mega achievements when it comes to sustainability, and the trends are clear. We have current processes and solutions to offer here. As you can see here, the main driver today is plant-based. Plant-based will be the biggest sector here, but we're already starting to see other technologies coming along in precision fermentation and also animal cell culture-based. Opportunities for this are really starting from small investors, new investors really coming into it. We now see that even the existing meat producers are also thinking of coming into this business and starting to look to invest in manufacturing alternative proteins as well. What does that mean for Food & Water? I deliberately have taken off the scale, but numbers of the scale, you could say. However, you can easily see what it is.
I mean, compared to 2020 or 2022, where we are, we will say in next three years, we will see a triple amount of business in the three areas that I would like to highlight here, which is renewable energy, that is HVO, biodiesel, and ethanol. Sustainable food is really an area where we look at all the efficiency of food production. Vegetable oil, vegetable protein is a big part of what we see in the near future here. Then, of course, circularity. In Food & Water, we are ready to give our share towards the numbers that Tom talked about over the next few years, and we see the growth continuing. What I can also say from the financial side of things, food as Tom said earlier, is a steady business, and it is a steady business. We've seen some growth.
What we do know is food is not very cyclical. We do see a little bit of up and down, but not very cyclical. It seems to be a steady business also going forward. Let me come to the final point here on Desmet. Desmet, as we have said before, is a world leader in food, feed, and biofuel processing. Desmet develops solutions, engineers, and also supplies full process plants to different industries like oils and fats, oleochemicals, HVO biofuels, animal feed, and also plant-based proteins. What we acquired was Desmet, which also had two other brands underneath that we're also including in this, which is Rosedowns and Stolz, that gives us opportunities to work across in plant-based proteins as well. The market share for Desmet varies depending on different applications between 20% and 40%.
Certainly, you can say that with us and Desmet together, we certainly have market leadership position. Desmet has over 1,000 employees, very good strong leadership, and strong global presence. They're headquartered in Brussels and founded in 1949. There is overlap with Alfa Laval, but the overlap is quite small. It's less than 20%. What Desmet brings is a lot more they offer to the, what I call oil and fats industry, really. As you all know, Desmet was, became part of us in August this year, 1st August, 2022. As I said earlier, it is a separate business unit. We operate them as an independent brand, competing with Alfa Laval as well in the marketplace. It's very clear that we have two brands operating in part where we are competing within the division, really.
We're used to working with multi brands in Alfa Laval, and I'm sure that we will make use of this going forward in a good way as well. Just to summarize then. As I said, financially, we've had good performance, and I would like to, and don't get me wrong here, but I would like to stand up and say today, we still see the outlook in the near term still pretty good, really. We don't see any real significant signs of any slowdown. The industry mix is strong and it's wide. It's not one or two industries. We are really growing across almost all the industries that we have. We have our structural growth opportunities. You saw two examples, but as I said, that will give us good volume over the next three, four years.
Desmet brings us good market position, strong market share, and also a big opportunity that we've not had in Alfa Laval before. Thank you.
Morning, everyone.
Morning.
Marine, the margin problem child for the Alfa Laval Group for the moment. I hope when I'm done today, you will be even more convinced that this is a fantastic business for Alfa Laval to own, and this is a fantastic end market for us long term. In the deep dive today, I'm going to give you a little bit more insight into how our Marine Capital sales market is doing. What are we going to do to address our profitability? Tom has touched upon the profitability challenge, the why. I'll address the what. Last but not the least, what are we doing to reposition the division in terms of the long-term portfolio transformation we are doing inside the division? We introduced this to you at the last Capital Markets Day. Let's start with ship contracting.
As you can see on the graph here, ship contracting has moderated in 2022 after a really good uptick in 2021. All of you know this is a proxy for our order intake with a time delay of roughly three-six months, depending which part of the business we are working with. 2023 is expected to be at a level similar to 2022. The market is expected to improve progressively thereafter towards the long-term average of 2,000 ships odd per year. Of course, you repeatedly get the question, is it really true, the prognosis that you have here? Of course, there are two parts of this. If you look at it from a demand side, it's a bit uncertain.
We will know, you know, if the world GDP grows, the world trade will grow, and there is going to be a demand for ships going forward. The real exciting story is on the supply side. If you look at the order book for new ships as a percentage of the existing fleet, it's less than 10%. It's a historic all-time low. If you look at the age of the world fleet, almost 20% of the world fleet is more than 15 years old. If you look at the regulations ahead of us around decarbonization, they are going to strengthen increasingly going forward, which means a lot of supply will need to be taken out of the market as a consequence of this, and the older fleet will be the first one to go.
It's difficult to predict what the slope of the curve will be, how high it will go, what the volatility it will be there. But the long-term story for ship contracting to go up is absolutely intact and if not stronger than ever been before. For Alfa Laval, all ships are not equal here. Fuel mix is important, ship mix is important. And if we see the contracting that has been running year- to- date, more than 30%, and I hear that count in number of ships. Andreas, we had this discussion on the table last night. Many people say 60. It's not 60 if you count in deadweight. But in number of ships, 30% of the ships contracted this year, slightly more, have been contracted with multi-fuel engines.
For Alfa Laval's Marine Division, every ship contracted on multi-fuel corresponds to an approximately increased order opportunity of $1 million per ship set. Great. On the flip side, what we see at the moment is the share of tankers is at an all-time historical low, which was also flagged by Tom earlier in his presentation, actually. Basically, the rush for LNG slots, for container slots have crowded out, and car carrier, vehicle carrier slots have crowded out everything else from the market in terms of share of the tankers. What we see is this, of course, impacts the volume both in Framo and the boiler business negatively because this is a sweet spot. In fact, Framo, this is the only spot for the Framo Marine business because they are only working with product chemical tankers in a very small niche.
For the boiler business as well, large crude tankers are very, very important. There is a consequence net impact on the volume in that area. Our capital sales business is not just related to shipbuilding. We also have a large retrofit environmental portfolio. Here I refer to NOx. Sorry, SOx and our ballast water business. This has typically been a SEK 3 billion-SEK 4 billion business, and I think Tom repeats it at almost every analyst call, the same number. It has been the same, and we know it's going to be the same in 2022 as well. Going forward, we have to recognize the fact that the deadline for the ballast water systems to be retrofitted is September 2024.
Shipowners are not going to wait for the last day to put this on. We expect by 2023, the retrofit will come to an end. When this is done, what is left behind us is principally that our business is much more correlated to the new building market and the service market going forward. Moving on to the highest priority or the highest short-term priority for the Marine Division, our profitability. We are not sitting in the back trying to explain why the profitability is low. We are doing a lot of things around it on the cost, volume, and margin side. Looking a little bit on the cost side.
Come January 2023, we will move from a five business unit structure to a four business unit structure, which means business unit boilers and business unit gas will be combined into one unit called Business Unit Heat and Gas Systems, with a consequent leaner management tier inside the division. We are rightsizing this combined unit even as we speak. We are also re-reducing the headcount in our ballast water business because we know that the opportunity in the ballast water business is going to be lower in the future than it is today. We are also pruning other areas as and when needed. We are optimizing our supply chain footprint. When I say our supply chain footprint, I specifically refer to the environmental supply chain footprint, ballast water and our SOx systems.
Once the retrofit is done, the need will be very much related to new building, and all of that needs to be delivered into Asia. We are re-setting our footprint around the need of the future. We are also working with volume and margin. You know, when typically one of your markets is soft, you always think, where does the opportunity lie, actually? The offshore market has been doing really well at this point in time, and we have really taken a strong position here to say that we are going to drive our market position in the offshore market. It's visible in our numbers. You can see year- to- date, 2022 as compared to 2022, the share of offshore business is 10 percentage points higher than what it was last year.
This has a positive impact, both to our Framo business, because Framo also supplies marine cargo pump, cargo pumping systems to the offshore end market for FPSOs is one example, FLNGs for one example, and also for our boiler business. Both of them get impacted positively from the capacity that this makes up for when the tanker market is weak. We are actively working with pricing, both on the capital sales and our service business to increase the backlog margin. Last but not the least, we have put a much higher ambition on ourselves around service growth. We feel this is absolutely achievable for a number of reasons. We see a growing environmental install base. The offshore end market is doing great. The cruise market has normalized. Ships are sailing again, the cruise ships.
Last but not the least, finally, we are able to go back on board again to do repairs. Which is why you also see our service growth numbers are really good, but that is because we have put a really high ambition for ourself to grow this business. Switching to the longer term. Tom has touched a little bit around this in his presentation as well. The complete repositioning of the Marine Division in terms of our long-term portfolio trans-transformation is being built around the fact that the shipping industry is making a lot of effort to decarbonize, to go to net zero, and there is going to be a need for solutions to facilitate the same.
Our own efforts in this way, in this area, is that we have prioritized two of the four sustainability focus areas that Nish showed in his presentation earlier, energy efficiency and clean energy. Nish, the sustainable food we'll carry for you. The circular will come one day in the future. You're going to see a lot of initiatives going forward, but if I was to categorize them in four broad areas, it's advanced energy saving devices. That's what we are trying to do under energy efficiency. The easy ones are already done. We are trying to improve operational practice, and we do through our digital solutions, digitalization. Last but not the least, we are delivering new and developing new solutions around low carbon fuel. Here I refer to LNG, LPG, biofuels, et cetera. Then around zero carbon fuels.
Here I refer to ammonia, methanol, not yet hydrogen. We still have the belief that maybe hydrogen may not be the fuel of the future, it may be the energy carrier. At this point in time, we believe it could be limited to short sea trades where we don't have a big footprint at currently. To give you a sense of what have we been doing in these areas compared to where we were last year at Capital Markets Day when we recorded a presentation for you. Let's start with wind propulsion. This is the Alfa Laval Oceanbird is what is the name of the joint venture. You see that on the side of the ship as well.
As a recap, this was established last year as a joint venture with Wallenius, similar to structure as what we did for our ballast water business many years ago. Last year, at this point in time, this was just a concept. Today, one year later, we have a completely engineered prototype design ready. We have revised it. If you look at the picture, the wings that you see here in no way are similar to or are even close to what you saw last year. We have improved the performance, the cost to performance ratio. We have made sure the system is more robust.
The footprint of the wing is lower, the weight of the wing is lower, and we believe we have a much more attractive product today than it was a year ago from the design standpoint. The first prototype On a full scale, will go and land in the end of quarter three, maybe early quarter four, 2023. The first wing, not the full system, the first wing will go on board in quarter one, 2024. Tom, we are slightly ahead of you in terms of a full system. You said 2025, but we have an agreement with the ship owner to put the first wing on board in 2024.
We get operational experience before we put the full system that Tom referred to on a, on a vessel with all sails on board a vessel. This goes well. Looking at the E-PowerPack, this is our system that converts low-grade waste heat to electricity. Last year, this was on a test bench in our test and training center in Aalborg. Today, we have our first unit sold, delivered, not yet installed, for A.P. Møller on their methanol fuel vessels for the Equinox class. The good story here is that for certain ship segments today, based on all the promotion and the storytelling we have said in Alfa Laval around this product, this is becoming a standard specification on a new building to have an E-PowerPack unit to be able to get better waste heat recovery.
We expect that for large container ships. Any ship with a large engine with a lot of excess waste heat, this will be specified as a standard in the future. We have a solid pipeline mainly related to new buildings, and there's a strong customer interest for this. Moving on to air lubrication. As a recap for everyone, this Alfa Laval, we have a minority position in the company Marine Performance Systems, MPS as we call it, where they are the people who have developed the technology platform, and we have a call option on the entire business. Prior our investment, MPS had one feeder container ship of a small size for a coastal trade that they had the system on. Within a space of one year, leveraging Alfa Laval's sales footprint, our execution footprint.
We have actually sold, executed, delivered, commissioned, and we have now two systems operational on large ocean-going ships, one on an LR2 tanker and one on a large ore carrier. In my period in Alfa Laval, I have never seen the speed of scaling something at the pace as we have done in this particular area. Anecdotally, when you speak to customers, the one advanced energy saving device that everyone wants to know more about is our air lubrication system. Everyone asks us, "When is it ready for commercial launch?" We said, "We are still testing the first two." The initial indication is savings are good, but we want to verify them, and once that is done, then the possibility we will take around calling the option or not on the entire business. So far, looking very good.
Last year, we acquired StormGeo as a means of accelerating our digital transformation. StormGeo is actually present at the exhibition outside. I hope a number of you will go and see it because I think it's pretty educational what they have set up there for all of you. Nevertheless, for those who will not be able to make it, in the simplest way, what StormGeo is trying to achieve is they are trying to safeguard assets and improve operations. How do they do that? They do that by helping you make right decision support around weather and data using advanced analytics, and they do that as a SaaS business service, software as a service. Standalone, StormGeo is growing well, both on the top line and profitability. Tom flagged that already.
Another good story here is we had thought about some cross-portfolio synergies when we acquired StormGeo. The first one already starts to be visible because StormGeo is doing the weather routing system for our Oceanbird platform. We are super excited about this one. This also actually makes the Oceanbird portfolio stronger. When you sell it, because not only we'll be supplying the mechanical component, but we will also have the software and the electronics behind it. Probably we are the only ones in the world who can put all of it together. We are investing in this business both organically and through M&A. An example of an organic development is our carbon footprint dashboard that has been launched this year.
An example of our M&A is the acquisition of the company BunkerMetric that we acquired as a bolt-on acquisition to StormGeo BunkerMetric for as a recap, what it does is it provides a software suite to optimize bunker procurement. Remember in the future, today, all ships are taking heavy fuel oil or gas, known bunker points. In the future, the bunkers will be methanol, ammonia in areas where there is renewable energy. Where are you bunkering? Not in Rotterdam. You're bunkering in Morocco. You're bunkering in the Middle East. You're bunkering in Chile. These are places where you have never been before, and having a software like this enables you to make a proper bunker plan when on a voyage very differently compared to what you have been used to doing in the past. Good story here as well.
We continue our portfolio transformation. The acquisition of Scanjet, which is another fuel-agnostic vertical, is another Lego brick in our portfolio transformation. StormGeo, what it does is it supplies a portfolio of solutions, and these solutions are mission-critical around tank management, which means around liquid cargo tank management, with the biggest volume coming from tank cleaning machines. Scanjet is a clear market leader in its vertical, with equipment on more than 7,500 vessels. The volume of the business is mentioned here. We believe Scanjet is a really good fit for Alfa Laval for two reasons. First of all, the Scanjet tank cleaning machines save water consumption relative to any other maker inside the industry, including what was Alfa Laval's old portfolio. When you can't beat them, then you make sure that you join them in one way or the other.
They save energy as a consequence. A really good fit from the sustainability standpoint. Next, we think it's a great complement to the offer around from Framo around managing your cargo for the customers. I was in Bergen last week. We had a customer dinner, and every single one commented on the fact we are really happy you acquired Scanjet because we think it makes such a good fit together with the Framo offer that you have around liquid cargo pumping. To conclude, we believe the market conditions are improving progressively going forward. The pace of our portfolio transformation, we are happy with it. We continue to strengthen our digital offer, not just organically, but also through M&A.
This is really important because in any digital business, you need to be a clear leader in that business to really have a good margins and market position going forward. All in all, happy with what has been happening in the last one year. Thank you very much.
Yeah. Thank you very much, Sameer. I think Sameer's presentation here gives a very good insight in one industry vertical and the energy transition. My presentation will be all about the energy transition. I started last year in the Capital Market Day to give a bit more insight and examples of our role and position in the energy transition and what role we can play going forward. That is what I will focus on today as well. Before we jump into that, let me just give a quick status of where we are today. Overall, we have added almost half a division over the last couple of years, so there has been a good growth and our bottom line is in okay level.
Of course, our oil and gas dependency, you know, some years ago we were 30%-40%. Now we are running around the 10%. Now we see oil and gas, especially the gas, like Tom mentioned, coming back. It means that the ratio we have at the moment will probably continue on that level. The growth in that sector will probably match the growth we have in the other areas. The 10% and of course the gas share is increasing versus the oil share. We have four areas that, four pillars in the division that we focus on. One is innovation. With the new BU structure, one of the big objectives was to developing a lot more products, more increasing the newness.
In the division, we have gone from a 10% newness up to now above 25%, which is record level. That means the revenue we have of products launched within the last five years versus the total revenue. We are launching a lot of products, and luckily the customers also appreciating the values we are coming with and buying these technologies that brings a lot of CapEx and OpEx benefits. We have presence, which is, I wanna give two examples of that. We have our distribution network as a high focus in presence. Here we are very happy to see that our distribution growth is growing faster than the division average growth. We are really increasing our presence through distribution network.
Another area on presence is our digital customer journey. Here I can give an example of the e-commerce, where we today have doubled our e-commerce business over the last two years. We see a continuation of that speed. Both the e-commerce and distribution to grow faster than the pace of the division. We have service. Service, like you saw on the Group level, we had a dip during the pandemic, was the case for the Energy Division. We are really back now and back on record levels. The services is doing very well now. With the strong service operation footprint we have in the world, this is definitely something we have a high focus on going forward as well.
Service is just a business that has to set records every quarter. That is the pace we wanna see there. A fourth area is clean tech, and that is where I will spend this presentation on. I might, in some areas, go a bit technical to show where Alfa Laval products fit into the process. Based on all the dialogues I had last night, I feel we have quite some energy experts in the room, so I think we are in good shape for taking that in. Before going into that, let's look at the market to start with. Here you see the International Energy Agency outlook on, first of all, the current trends.
The world will need more than 50% more energy in 2050 than we are actually using today. The energy demand will only go up. At the same time, to reach the Paris Agreement, and have a net zero and keeping the 1.5 degrees, that's what the sustainable development scenario is about. You see there is a huge gap in what has to be closed, of course. How are we doing? On a global level, we are not doing so well. Before the COP, we saw the United Nations report. In 2030, we should be 45% below the consumption. Actually, the best estimate is now that we will be 10% above.
There is, of course, more and more sense of urgency in this, and people talk about the last call and really making things happen. Short-term, what is really the main player to make this happen is energy efficiency. We tend to talk a lot about the green hydrogen, the Power-to-X, the solar, the wind and all that, and that has to come, and that has to be half of the equation when we look at 2050. The energy efficiency is something we have right in our hands. We have all the technologies, and the needs are clearly identified, we just need to deploy more of that. That is what I will zoom in on now. We have made our clean tech offering.
Like you saw from Sameer and Nish, we have this per division, and we have the energy efficiency, the clean energy, and the circularity. We have partnerships to really connect and accelerate things in these areas. For me, it's quite overwhelming to see how many companies that are coming to us. Right now, we are being pulled into a lot of dialogue where people need thermal management, heat balance, thermal optimization of their systems. That is, of course, very encouraging to see. We are also stepping into partnership on fixing our own house, like Tom mentioned, with the different kind of materials, fossil-free steel, and so on. The new clean energy landscape will need a lot of new materials that has to be developed before it can really scale.
Also those partnerships we have, which we don't speak so much about for good reasons. I will now jump into energy efficiency to start with, where I will give you some examples of our role in energy efficiency today. The first one is that what we are selling today in capital sales, this is 2021 numbers. If we look at the heat exchangers that goes into replacing older technologies, so now bringing in much more efficient technologies or bringing in heat exchangers for waste heat recovery or et cetera, where there was no heat exchangers before, then we talk about 50 GW. Oh, sorry, I have to go back. Can I go back? I hope so. Yeah, we can.
If we look at the service, because it's also about cleaning and making sure that the heat exchangers are fit for duty, so we don't have scaling and fouling and so on, and that's another 50 GW. We speak about 100 GW. What is 100 GW? It's difficult to get a relation to these megawatt and gigawatt and terawatts and so on. We all know about the enormous amount of wind turbines being deployed every year, 2021 was a record year. What is the output of all the wind turbines installed in 2021 that everybody talks about, which is good, we need them, but that is 93 GW. It is enormous amount of energy savings we are putting into play every year.
Like my teenagers at home says, "Wow, Alfa Laval need to sell more heat exchangers," and I can only agree on that because this has an enormous impact, and we need to lift the awareness of this. That's also why we are going into two new actions. We are launching an Energy Hunter program this autumn for our partners and our salespeople, both in capital sale and service sales, because we need to equip our sales force with tools and with knowledge on how to speak the energy efficiency language. Because it's very easy when I meet our customers, management teams, and so on, they need help with energy audits. They need recommendations. They need the findings and so on.
We need to talk about kilowatt and CO2, and not only return on investment on the financial side. Of course, the return on investment is also helping us these days because the energy prices are so high. When you save energy, you go really also down in return on investment. It's also Energy Efficiency Movement, because I can stand here in many forums and talk about energy efficiency, and that's really important. To create a much stronger voice, we went together with ABB to create an Energy Efficiency Movement where companies can join in and make their commitments, work with their suppliers, work with things they have in-house, and make a much stronger voice to industrial associations, to IEA, and so on, and have a company-neutral voice, but really having an energy efficiency voice.
Since the spring, more than 150 companies have now joined this movement, and it's growing exponential. I think this is two really good actions to lift the energy efficiency up on the agenda. You also see this coming through on political levels. Now we have EU talking about the first principle is always energy efficiency. That is outcomes of bringing this up on a bigger awareness. Now I will give you four examples of our role in energy efficiency so you get a better feeling for what we are talking about. The first one is heat pumps. I know that's high on the agenda in this room, and it is really exciting.
Here you see in 2021, it's about two million heat pumps being deployed in the market. Those two million heat pumps are mainly for new builds. Most new builds today are being equipped with heat pumps. We are at a 70%-80% ratio of new builds having heat pumps instead of gas boilers, which was just the case some years ago. The outlook here is that all the gas boilers, and this is just Europe, this is Europe, all these gas boilers installed in all the houses today also need to be replaced. We have 150 million gas boilers installed in Europe. Where we sold two million heat pumps last year, six million gas boilers were still sold because that is going into the replacements.
Now we will start to see heat pumps also going into current households and being installed to replace boilers. We have different types of heat pumps. We have air-to-air heat pumps that we are not engaged in. Air, air-to-air cannot really replace boilers because you can't get the air to your radiators or ground floor or hot water in the house. When we talk about replacing gas boilers, that is really two types. It's two liquid types or water types. On the left side, you see this is mainly what we, the biggest share of the left side technology is in Northern Europe.
That is where you have a brine circle bringing up the heat from the ground to a system where you then transfer the heat to refrigerant, and the refrigerant then transfer it to the water loop in the house and heat up the water. In that system, we have two units, evaporator and a condenser. On the right side, which is majority of the market, our estimate is also that that will be the majority going forward, then we talk about air-to-water heat pumps. That is when you take the heat from the air into refrigerant, and then you heat up the water via one heat exchanger. That is the playfield where we are active. Both are growing.
We will also see other regions like U.S., they will also step into this, and that might be a third system coming into play. That was an example of electrification driving the energy efficiency. If we then look at heat, and here I have three examples. This is an example from U.S. It's really sad news, and other regions are not much better. Of the 100% energy source that is being produced, 40% electricity, 60% go into HVAC processes, transportation, and so on. That's not the sad news. The sad news is that two third of this is never being used. It would be pretty stupid and costly to bring solar and wind power and produce the same amount of energy and then waste two third of it downstream.
That is why we have to work on both. That is why energy efficiency is so important because we have to take care of that wasted energy and use it instead of throwing it away. Some examples of this, so there are some hope in the funnel. One example here is that you have a sulfuric acid plant in Germany, in Hamburg. They have a lot of waste heat. Then we started a dialogue with them about using that waste heat instead of throwing it away. That is now a system where that goes into a heat transfer contractor, then it goes to a power station, and then it's being used in the district heating network. This gives 100,000 tons of emission savings, and it's equal to 800,000 MWh savings.
This is just one industry. This was the project we announced here, I think, in August, and it's really ticking a lot of boxes. It also shows the complexity how this can be because you need a lot of inter-sector coupling. It's not like the Aurubis site have everything in their hands. Actually, the government of Germany stepped in and took commitments and made this happen. There are also cases where it's a bit more in own hands. I love this example because here you have two waste streams. You have the liquid waste stream, and then you, which you have to pay quite some bucks to get rid of. It has to go to the municipal wastewater treatment plant or transported away.
At the same time, we have a lot of companies with a lot of waste heat. Maybe one problem can solve the other one, or one opportunity can solve the waste stream problem. This is where, and you will see this more in the exhibition in the afternoon, but if you take that waste heat, and you use that to heat up the water, so you evaporate it, then you condensate it, then the water is clean, and you can reuse that into the factory. That means you need less fresh water to start with. At the same time, you get a solid treatment that is much more concentrated. If you still have to dispose it's much cheaper.
You can also, we have examples where it's actually become valuable and you can sell what before was a headache, you get a revenue on it. You can even have chemicals for reuse. We have examples of this in all three cases. This is happening as we speak today. This is something we launched last year. We are installing quite many systems in many different regions on this zero liquid discharge approach where we use an evaporator and a decanter. This is skids, it's standardized, it's really a nice business. The last example I wanna give on energy efficiency is data centers. Data centers are popping up everywhere. Just here in Denmark, there are now 54 data centers in this small, wonderful country.
We are traditionally selling a lot of cooling equipment, so air coolers or water coolers to the data centers because 40% of the energy that the data center are using is just for cooling. Actually, data centers should be called energy centers because in 2025, 20% of the world's energy consumption will go to data centers. 20% of the world's energy consumption into data centers. They are popping up everywhere. We will, of course, sell more cooling. Of all the energy that goes into data centers, 90% of that energy goes to waste. It's not being used. Also here, so we see two great new opportunities. One thing is what you see in the upper left corner, that is waste heat recovery.
Together with industrial heat pumps, you can lift that low-grade waste heat and use it for district heating or use it to nearby industries and so on. Now we are in a lot of dialogues with Google, with Microsoft, Meta, et cetera, on how to make the future data centers much more efficient because they have a big sustainability challenge. They see us as a big part of that equation to solve it. We will also see data centers popping up more in areas where the waste heat can be used rather than wasted. It's the number one thing on data centers, the efficiency part of it.
Also, with all our kids doing all the TikTok pictures, and we have 5G, and we have all the streaming of films and so on, the demands on the servers are also going heavily up. That means air cooling is not the future solution. It's simply not efficient enough. You have to remove too much heat from every rack. The future data centers, and they are already coming into deployment, you put the servers into liquid. Then you save 60% of the cooling demand because it's much more efficient. You have one server in or even on rack level water supply, cooling with special liquids, and you need a lot of heat exchangers to solve that. It's needed. We really have a triple effect here.
More data centers, we will sell more cooling equipment. Waste heat is coming into play, and then we have heat exchangers coming into the heart of the data centers. That was the energy efficiency side. Now I will move to the clean energy. Here I also have some examples to show our position in this. I wanna start with the energy storage because when we read about energy storage in the media and articles and so on, energy storage, then people think batteries. Batteries are also needed, but it's short-term. You store energy for four, five, up to six hours, then it's not scalable anymore. We need long-duration energy storage because when the wind and solar share of that renewable energy goes up above a certain point, you're not having a robust or re-reliable grid anymore.
We need a fossil-free power grid everywhere. You need to store the energy when there is no sun or when the wind is not blowing for a week, and that's when we come into long-duration energy storage. Very few are aware of this, that is why we at COP26 last year, as one of the co-founders, launched the Long-Duration Energy Storage Council to make it much more fact-based, to make it much more objective, and lifting the awareness. We have now a lot of companies as part of this and a lot of political interest in how to scale this, how to make this happen. This is complex because you will need storage capacities that is equal to the old power plants of 100 MW or 200 MW.
To give you one example of this, and now I'm maybe pushing the border here on how technical we should go, but it's so exciting, so I have to because it's full of heat exchangers, by the way. When there is a lot of wind or a lot of sun during the day, you put what is needed on the grid, and the rest you store. You store that by running a compressor or look at it as a mega heat pump. You have an air loop that you heat up. That heat you transfer in two steps to a molten salt system. You have hot molten salt, so it's not melting, or warm molten salt, and you make it very hot during the day.
This is when we talk about 5, 600 degrees. We talk about high pressures, we talk about high corrosions. These heat exchangers, to make this possible, they don't exist commercially today. We have had a lot of R&D and innovation going for quite some years on this, so we will be ready when the market is ready. Tom gave some time ambitions on this earlier. That's when we really heat it up, then you can store that for not eight hours. You can store it for two days, five days, eight days. Then you offload it when you need it. The offloading is that then you put down the hot and you move it to the warm because then you transfer the hot to the air instead. That hot air, very hot air, drives the turbine.
That turbine drives a generator, and then you have electricity to the grid when there is no sun and when there is no wind. In a system like this, often 100 MW, you will probably have some, yeah, let's say hundreds of heat exchangers, and it's big heat exchangers. You also see that when we go from, for example, the oil and gas industry, and we go into the new energy landscape, the heat exchangers are becoming even more critical. They are really in the heart of these processes. The innovation is there, the innovation demand is there, and we need to use all across business unit and across R&D teams' knowledge to bring these new innovations together that some were saying a couple of years ago, but that's not possible. It is. That's one example.
We have another one is green hydrogen. You all saw the Neom city announcement, and that was around the electrolyzer. It's important here that we talk a lot about green hydrogen, and we should, but there are many colors of green hydrogen, and we have opportunities in all colors. That would be a long session to go through all that. If we focus the green hydrogen, that is when we take renewable power, and then you have a water molecule, and you use the renewable power to break the water atom into hydrogen and oxygen. Oxygen you just let go, and hydrogen is then your energy that is left. In that breaking of bonds, you create a lot of heat, and that heat has to be removed from the electrolyzer very efficiently.
Otherwise, the electrolyzer is not efficient. Again, a lot of heat that has to be removed that is, if we don't do something, waste heat. The energy efficiency is equally important in the new energy landscape because they have to be efficient from the day one, not in technology conversion five or eight months later or five years. That's why energy efficiency also comes into play here. What we see as a very, very nice opportunity, and you will see that in the exhibition as well, you can take that waste heat, and then you have salt water often available. Instead of having expensive RO systems with a lot of chemicals and so on, you use that waste heat to evaporate and condensate water. You have the water for free to your electrolyzer.
Really, really, a strong enabler for scaling this, where the CapEx and OpEx of these systems are sharp from the very beginning. That is the production site of hydrogen. We have the transportation stage, and finally, we have the usage phase, where it can go into the hard-to-abate sector with steel, cement, chemical production. It can also be all the e-fuels, e-ammonia, e-methanol, like Sameer talked about, but also fuel for transportation vehicles. In all these three phases, whether that is production, transportation, or use, it's a lot about heating and cooling. We have a lot of opportunities in this entire value chain. Right now it's of course, very much about the production.
I do like to use BloombergNEF numbers in this because you can get crazy amount of gigawatt that is needed if you just look at what is needed to reach the Paris Agreement and the transformation has to happen. If we just look at announced projects and where there is some kind of funding behind, then Bloomberg comes out now, just before COP, and say it's 200 GW that has to be installed over the next eight years or is likely to be installed because of. This is named projects, we know where they are, and there are some funding behind it. It's easy to find articles or numbers where this is 1,000, but 200 is big enough.
Neom City was 2 GW for hydrogen production as a reference point. Last example I have here is carbon capture. Because there is, of course, a lot on the clean energy side, there will be a transition also where we need to make the current fossil can say emissions capture that CO2. That is where CCS or CCUS comes in. There is a lot of demonstration plans, we are engaged in most of them. Now things look like they will scale. Of course, there are a lot of political things, tax, CO2 tax credits and all that.
You see the outlook again here from Bloomberg that in 2025 there will be a shift change in this, and this is when the plants are up in operation. Of course, for us, we will start to see the first projects already next year. Where we see this is happening, it's very much in the U.S., it's in Netherlands, it's in U.K., and it's in China. You have also some projects in Norway. They are popping up more and more Middle East, we heard from Tom. Now this is about to scale. The good thing here is that here we have the technologies available. Compared to, for example, long-duration energy storage, where we need a lot of innovation, here the technologies are proven in these demonstration plants.
Another example of two examples of carbon capture, because there are so many processes when it comes to carbon capture. Here, the first one is point source. This is when you, for example, have a fossil power plant, you have a refinery, you have a steel factory, and so on. You take the chimney gas which has a lot of CO2, and you have that as an input to the CCS process. Through an absorber, then you get clean gas that you can let go of. You take the rich solvent, because you use a solvent to extract the CO2 from the gas, and you take that into a lot of steps, and then finally a stripper, and at the end you have a concentrated CO2.
You can either store or use in materials where you lock this carbon atom to other material types. What is wonderful with this picture is it's of course sustainable, but it's also a lot of heat exchangers. This is simplified, so there are really a lot of heat exchangers. Here I just shown one type, but there are many different types, welded, packing of units and so on in this process. There are many of those CCS projects, but another one is direct air capture. That means you could take the air in here and then, of course, you have much less concentration of CO2 per cubic meter, but you can still extract the CO2 from that. That is what's called direct air capture or DAC.
Those systems to extract the CO2, you need a lot of heat. Really a lot of heat. Right now it only makes sense where you have the heat for free, more or less. Iceland, for example, you just, you have the heat there immediately. That's where we have the first world DAC system coming into place, in being deployed next year. Here we have also a lot of Alfa Laval heat exchangers in that because you use heat exchangers to concentrate the CO2 before it goes underground again, and also to recover the heat from the concentrated CO2, so you reuse that before you put it underground.
There are many different applications type, but these are the two most extreme ones, and we are engaged in both of them and everything that is in the middle. When you hear carbon capture, and there are many technologies and processes, it doesn't matter, they all have heat exchangers. I have spoken about some areas where it's really about innovation. And I think one of the big strengths we have as an organization is that we are not provider of a specific heat exchanger type. We have more or less the whole range. Whether you talk about fusion bonding, diffusion bonding, you talk about semi-welded gasket heat exchangers, desalination plates, et cetera, we have it.
It's really when we combine these technologies that the magic happens and we create products that was unforeseen of before.