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Earnings Call: Q4 2012

Feb 5, 2013

Lars Renström
CEO, Alfa Laval

Good morning, and most welcome to our presentation. I will start by giving you my three highlights. First of all, I am pleased that the order intake stabilized and was unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Further, we expect the first quarter to be on about the same level. The second highlight is that we continue to deliver on the savings program initiated end 2011. Sales and admin cost was down 11.5% year-on-year. Finally, in 2012, we completed four acquisitions that adds SEK 1 billion in annualized sales growth corresponding to 3.5%, which is fully in line with our target. Let's move over and take a look at the key figures. In the quarter, orders received rose 7% to SEK 7.3 billion, net sales was unchanged at SEK 8.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA declined 5% to SEK 1.3 billion, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 16.2% versus 17% a year ago.

For the full year, orders rose 6% to the new record level of SEK 30.3 billion. Net sales increased 4% to the new record, SEK 29.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA declined 7% to SEK 4.9 billion, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 16.5%. On the next slide, you see that the board proposes a dividend of SEK 3.5, an increase of 8%. A mandate to buy back up to 5% of the number of outstanding shares is also proposed with the intention to cancel the shares. We move over to orders received. There we see that orders received on rolling 12 months increased to SEK 30.3 billion. The increase in order intake was 11% year-on-year at constant exchange rates. You can see that after the drop in the third quarter, we have stabilized. We move over to the next slide.

There, from the order analysis, you find that year-on-year acquisitions contribute with 1.8 percentage unit and organic growth was 8.9%. We had negative currency effects of 3.6%. Sequentially, acquisitions contributed with 0.2%, organic growth was minus 1.4%. The positive currency effect was 0.7%, giving a grand total of minus 0.5%. Next slide. There we see that the EBITDA margin reached 16.2%, which is a decline year-on-year, the operating result was SEK 1.3 billion. Moving over to highlights. In 2012, we reached all-time high in large orders in excess of SEK 2.5 billion. The vast majority were energy-related, a substantial portion were environment-related, some came from the food and pharma area. On the next slide, you see that the distribution in value between the regions is healthy and well-balanced.

Asia, of course, being biggest, followed by North America, Central and Eastern Europe, which in fact is Russia. Moving over to the next slide. You see that in 2012, we completed four acquisitions that added 3.5% annualized sales growth. We have Vortex, a niche company selling blending and mixing solutions to the oil and gas industry, Ashbrook, selling belt filter presses for sludge dewatering as an alternative to Alfa Laval decanters, Gamajet, a niche company selling tank cleaning machines, ACE, that is widening our product portfolio for the North American natural gas and other energy-related markets. On the next slide, we see ACE that we acquired in December. Heat exchangers that are used at the field compression stations for the gas gathering system that is typically used for shale gas. We shift over to the development per segment.

We see that year-on-year, in the quarter, the vast majority of the segments have increased. We quickly shift over and take a closer look at the divisions on the next slide. Please note that all comments are sequential. We start with the Equipment division, where order intake was unchanged. Sanitary rose with good demand for all applications. Industrial equipment declined, partly due to seasonality, partly because of a non-repeat large order. OEM grew, mainly driven by customers making air conditioning and air dryer products. Parts and service dropped somewhat, reflecting lower demand in HVAC. Next slide. In the Process Technology division, order intake was also unchanged. Food grew, supported by base business and vegetable oil projects in Asia. Energy and environment declined as there were fewer large oil and gas contracts. Process industry recorded growth with a positive development for refinery and life science.

Parts and service grew as well. Next slide. The Marine & Diesel division declined somewhat, since the growth in parts and service could not fully compensate for the weaker capital sales. The equipment declined due to lower demand for land-based diesel power. However, it is positive that base business showed a slight increase. Systems declined, reflecting the contracting at the yards earlier in the year. We are very pleased that the first commercial PureSOx order was booked, and we expect more orders during the first half of the year. Parts and service rose, mainly due to good repair activity. Next slide. Since Marine & Diesel division is new, we will take a look at orders received for the full year 2012. 41% came from shipbuilding and offshore, 6% came from environmental solutions, 13% from land-based diesel power, and 40% from parts and service. Next slide.

For the full year, Process Technology has had a very good development, driven by process industry and energy and environment. Equipment division had a good year, with sanitary growing significantly. Parts and service grew as well. The Marine & Diesel division has had a challenging year for capital sales, but parts and service has held up well. Now we move over to the geographical developments. Order intake in the quarter shows that year-on-year, Western Europe has grown with 25%, followed by North America with 16% and Asia with 13%. The decline in Central and Eastern Europe is due to non-repeat large orders in Russia. We move on and take a closer look at Asia. Now all comments are sequential. We grew 6%, with process industry, food, and OEM performing the best.

China was affected by wait-and-see mode among customers, while India, Southeast Asia, and Middle East delivered growth. Next, in Western Europe and Nordic, we can see that both delivered 12% growth. We had a favorable development for large orders, base business, and parts and service. Almost all geographical areas reported growth. In Central and Eastern Europe, the weak development was due to fewer big orders being booked in Russia. Our positive view on Russia remains, since base business was unchanged and the general activity level was positive. We move on to the next slide. North America declined 2%, where the U.S. continued to grow while Canada declined due to fewer large projects. We were pleased to see base business growing. Sanitary, food, and parts and service had a positive development. Latin America declined 12% since fewer large orders were booked.

Base business was growing, especially in Marine and Process Technology division. We move on to the top 10 ranking. Yellow bar is 2012 and green is 2011. Here you see that the U.S. has strengthened its number one position. We maintain a positive view on the U.S. The decline in China is related to Marine, excluding Marine, we had a modest growth. Nordic and Korea have continued their good development. Mid Europe declined due to non-repeat large orders and generally weaker demand. Southeast Asia continued to grow and is in a positive trend. Adriatic was unchanged, which is an achievement in itself. Russia delivered broad-based growth and did a great year. We maintain our positive view. In Brazil, Petrobras continues to invest, India declined despite a strong recovery in the fourth quarter.

On the next slide, for the full year, we see that all regions, except Asia, grew about 10%, Asia being affected by Marine. In the pie chart, we see our good geographical mix, with 48% coming from Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Latin America. We are also pleased that 19% comes from North America. We enter into the financials, there I hand over to Thomas.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Good morning, all of you. Let's look a bit more into the details of the financials. Let's move into the presentation slides. As Lars has covered the orders received, situation, and development left, may I give you a few comments on sales. In the quarter, we realized sales of SEK 8.1 billion. Let me confirm that this was exactly according to our own expectations. The shortfall that I commented on after quarter three was recovered in quarter four. Sales was up organically 0.7% over quarter four of 2011. Acquisitions added 1.7% to sales in the quarter. In absolute terms, we were on the same level as last year. Sequentially, sales was up almost 14% on a like-for-like basis, which is entirely due to seasonality. Parts and service represented 25.8% of revenues in the quarter, against 25.2% in the same quarter of 2011.

A slight increase. Comparing to the first three quarters of 2012, we're down from approximately 27% to the 25.8%, an adverse mix effect in that sense. Moving on to the next slide, a few comments on gross profit margin. Gross profit margin for the quarter ended 37%, exactly the same level as in quarter three, against quarter four of 2011, where we generated 37.8%. Let me remind you that with the third quarter report, I said the following as a forward-looking statement. We expect a relative increase of capital sales to have an adverse effect on gross profit margin. We do not foresee any price effects. As far as load is concerned, it is dependent on inflow of short lead time orders. I would argue that the actual for quarter four came out precisely as we predicted.

Sequentially, we were suffering from a limited adverse mix effect. For the rest, the main parameters came out as quarter three or marginally better. Year-on-year, we were suffering from adverse mix effect, adverse FX effects, a price mix change primarily in Marine, as well as cost accounting adjustments in Aalborg. The factory load had a positive effect year-on-year. Let me give you a first forward-looking statement. In the near term, we expect a relative reduction of capital sales, a somewhat positive effect on gross profit margin. We do not foresee any material price effects. As far as load is concerned, we do not envisage any major effects or any major shifts. Moving on to the next slide. Looking at overhead costs, we can report the following. R&D ended at SEK 209 million in the quarter, which is an increase year-on-year.

For the full year, we've seen R&D increase 7.6% like-for-like. I think, again, this is a very strong commitment to the future, a continued development of new products and solutions. The R&D spend represented 2.4% of sales on a full year basis. Moving on to sales and admin. Sales and admin amounted to about SEK 1.35 billion in the quarter. That in itself represented a reduction, like-for-like year-on-year of 11.5%. The savings program we launched at the end of 2011 is generating the effects anticipated. The outcoming quarter effectively means a saving of approximately SEK 100 million over last year. We have delivered the savings of a couple of hundred SEK million as communicated with the quarter four report of 2011. The gross margin and the development of the overheads gave us an EBITA margin for the quarter of 16.2%.

Following the restructuring and partly disposal of the Onnuri activities in Korea, we have a one-off charge of SEK 51 million to EBIT in the quarter. Looking at profit before tax, it was again influenced by positive exchange differences. In absolute terms, some SEK 25 million. Nowhere near the positive SEK 223 million that we were enjoying in quarter four of 2011. Profit before tax was following from about almost SEK 1.15 billion in the quarter, a decline of 17% over last year. That largely explained by FX in the financial net. Before leaving the profit and loss account, taxes ended with a charge of SEK 246 million or 21% of profit before tax. This includes a one-off positive effect of SEK 99 million, which is coming from the reduction in corporate income taxes in Sweden. A SEK 99 million positive effect from adjusting deferred tax assets on adjustments.

Our guidance for taxes remains 28% on profit before tax. EPS for the year SEK 761, almost on the level of 2011, where we had SEK 768. If we exclude step-up, we are at SEK 839 against SEK 842 last year, same level basically. Return on capital employed, 26.1%, say about the same level as quarter three. Return on equity 21.6%, just below the level of quarter three. Let's move on to cash flow. We can summarize the year in terms of cash flows as follows. We have generated an increase in cash flow from operations to the tune of 5%. That is despite lower EBITDA and bigger tax payments. Thanks to less of an increase in working capital compared to 2011. That is despite increases in orders as well as in sales. Moving on down the cash flow account, acquisitions accounted for SEK 2.8 billion of cash outflows.

The delisting in India in itself involved a cash out of some SEK 830 million, and then a cash out of almost SEK 2 billion related mainly to the four new acquisitions that Lars commented on before. For the full year, we generated a free cash flow that is before dividends and acquisitions of just above SEK 3 billion, and just above the free cash flow of 2011. In quarter four, a cash flow was generated of SEK 712 against SEK 963 in 2011, which is largely explained by an increase in working capital. I think to summarize cash flow for 2012, it's fair to say that in Alfa Laval, we've enjoyed another good year in terms of cash generation. Moving on to FX, we had a negative SEK 63 million in the quarter coming from both translation and transaction. This is an outcome slightly better than our estimate after Q3.

If we look into the future for 2013, we anticipate a net FX effect of a negative SEK 114 million. This is mainly expected to come from translation effects. Applying the closing rates as per December 31 of 2012, our P&L account would generate an adverse SEK 120 million of translation. This is a deterioration compared to earlier projections for 2013. This deterioration is basically down to the weakening of the US dollars in the past two months. Moving on to the backlog. We had a total order backlog as per end of December of almost SEK 14.5 billion. This was representing 5.8 months of LTM sales. End of 2011, we had almost the same level of backlog in relation to LTM sales. Looking at the backlog development by division, you will find an increase in Process Technology and Equipment and a reduction in Marine & Diesel.

Looking at the order backlog to be shipped during 2013, it amounted to SEK 11.6 billion. If we exclude acquisitions made in 2012, like-for-like, this means a slight reduction from end of 2011 to end of 2012 for shipment in the coming year to the tune of some SEK 100 million. Please remember that. Let's move on to the next slide. Before I get into the sales bridge from 2012 to 2013, let me share with you the development of orders received in recent quarters. I think the trend over the last four quarters, the quarters in 2012, it's important to have this in mind when you assess 2013 for orders as well as sales. On top of the actuals in 2012, please note that we estimate ACE, the acquisition made at the very end of 2012, will add roughly SEK 100 million of volume per quarter.

However, applying the closing rates, as I just commented on, orders and sales will have an adverse translation effect of approximately SEK 150 million per quarter. I think it's important that you have this slide in mind when you evaluate your orders and sales forecasts for 2013. With that, let's take a look at the sales bridge or the summary of known and unknown parameters for projecting full-year sales for 2013. As I just mentioned, like-for-like, the backlog will give reduced sales of about SEK 100 million for 2013. Based on closing exchange rates, we will have an adverse translation effect of some SEK 600 million. The four new acquisitions, on top of what they've given us in 2011, we estimate that they will give an additional SEK 700 million in 2013. This gives a subtotal for the known parameters of SEK 29.8 billion.

As always, it's up to you to form an opinion about demand, but please consider our outlook and then the order trend over 2012, as I just showed you, when you assess your estimate. Finally, with regard to prices, let me just inform you that we've adjusted prices as we typically do as per the beginning of the year. These adjustments have been very limited and obviously only for list price-based products. With that, I give the word back to Lars for the outlook and the closing remarks.

Lars Renström
CEO, Alfa Laval

The outlook is, we expect that demand during the first quarter 2013 will be on about the same level as in the fourth quarter. For each division, our demand expectation for the first quarter is as follows. Process Technology, we expect to be on about the same level. Equipment division, somewhat lower due to non-repeat contract orders in sanitary. Finally, Marine and Diesel, somewhat higher as capital sales is expected to recover slightly for land-based diesel power and marine and offshore systems.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

That completes our presentation, and now we hand over to Emily for the Q&A session.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel the request, you can then press the hash key. That is star and one to ask a question. Your first question today comes from Ben Maslen of the Bank of America. Please ask your question.

Ben Maslen
Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you. Morning, Lars. Morning, Thomas. A few questions, please. Firstly, just on the financial net line, which has been positive for a couple of quarters, can you just remind us why that is? Any guidance you can give us for 2013 as what is a reasonable underlying rate? That's the first one. Secondly, just on IAS 19 and the new pension accounting standard, is there any change you expect to either your liability or interest charge coming out of that? Finally, Lars, on the savings program from 2011, can you give us a number of what savings you achieved overall in 2012? What is left to be realized, whether you think you need to do any more to balance the decline of capital sales in marine. Thank you.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Okay, Ben. Let's start off with financial net then. If we look at the financial net, we were enjoying positive exchange differences to the tune of SEK 260 million almost, out of which 80% were actually realized FX differences, only the remaining 20% being unrealized. The interest net, which is really what we can predict, you have to anticipate an interest net of a negative SEK 35 million to SEK 40 million per quarter. Moving on to IAS 19. Yes, you're right. There is a change in how to account for defined benefit pension liabilities or post-retirement benefits. It will be accounted for in the other comprehensive income of the P&L statement, no longer the corridor method will be applied. We do not have a final number at this juncture. We're still waiting for actuarial assessments. With the annual report, you will find details on the effects.

We do not see any effects, obviously, in the regular part of the P&L account. It will create some fluctuations in equity through other comprehensive income.

Ben Maslen
Analyst, Bank of America

Got it.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Moving on to the savings program. We did generate well above SEK 200 million of like-for-like savings in 2012, as we committed to, we have remaining effects to have sort of the annualized effect of measures taken to kick into the P&L in 2013 to the tune of SEK 80 million-SEK 100 million.

Ben Maslen
Analyst, Bank of America

Great. Okay. Just the second part of that question. I think, Lars, you said you thought marine capital sales would go up, I guess there's still quite a big gap between your orders and sales. If we don't see a kind of bigger pickup in marine capital sales this year, do you need to do any more restructuring in that business to kind of deal with the cost base?

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Well, when it comes to capital sales in marine, we believe that we have reached the bottom, we will not see any recovery during 2013 since there is a lag of six to nine months between contracting at the yards and the time when we see it in our order books.

Ben Maslen
Analyst, Bank of America

You don't need to do anything on the cost side then?

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Well, on the cost side.

Lars Renström
CEO, Alfa Laval

Yeah, Ben, if I may remind you of what I said at our capital markets day. I said that we are adjusting capacity when it comes to production of boilers.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Right.

Lars Renström
CEO, Alfa Laval

We have implemented parts of that during the second half of 2012, and there is still a bit more to be implemented during 2013. For the rest, remember that we have an integrated operation set up covering production for all of the three divisions. We do not have separate manufacturing locations for the individual divisions, with the exception of boilers in the Aalborg set up.

Ben Maslen
Analyst, Bank of America

Got it. Thanks.

Lars Renström
CEO, Alfa Laval

apart from that, nothing.

Ben Maslen
Analyst, Bank of America

Thanks a lot, Thomas. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Peder Frölund of Handelsbanken Capital Markets Stockholm. Please ask your question.

Peder Frölén
Analyst, Handelsbanken Capital Markets

good morning, everybody, thank you for that. You mentioned the parts and service orders were up around 4% sequentially, that was more linked to the process industry and the marine side. Maybe you could help us out here if there are any seasonal effects within those two sub-segments that are of magnitude or that this reflect under that line demand, or thirdly, just a function of the installed base. That's sort of my first question. The second question, Thomas or Lars, if you please could update the split between shipbuilding and offshore within marine. You gave an update on the capital markets day for 2011. Now we have the 41% for the two sub-segments combined for 2012. Finally, on prices, you mentioned a very limited list price increase in the beginning of the year.

Could you please remind us of the magnitude, last year and the years before that, to get the relative feel and maybe a comment on why it's marginal? I think everybody understands that, but still. That's it for me. Thank you.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

When it comes to parts and service, there were no seasonal effects in parts and service. When it comes to the 41% that we have in shipbuilding and offshore, 90% is shipbuilding, 10% is offshore, out of those 41%. The final question was? Limited increases, how were they versus in 2012 and 2011? As it's very obvious that it's limited increases and it's for price list based sales, and it's significantly less than 5%. It's in line with what we've done in 2011 and 2012, I would say.

Peder Frölén
Analyst, Handelsbanken Capital Markets

I think that's the most important thing. Thank you. That's it for me.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Sven Weier of UBS Frankfurt. Please ask your question.

Sven Weier
Analyst, UBS

Yeah, good morning. A couple of questions from my side. First one is on Process Technology margins, which were at a low point in Q4. Is it fair to say that you turned some of the big tickets from 2011 with a wide scope of supply into revenue in Q4? You had a, let's say, an unfavorable big ticket mix that you booked in Q4 as revenues? Also associated to that question, if you generally look at the structure of your big tickets, probably going into more narrow scope of supply, would you think that this is giving you some margin tailwind for 2013? Then, a question on Marine & Diesel, and I'm sorry if you mentioned that before, but can you give us some color on why the margins improved in Marine & Diesel quite substantially, sequentially? What did have an impact on these margins?

Thank you.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Okay. If we start with the PTD margins, yes, we did have a larger content of capital sales and then larger, wider scope contracts that had an adverse effect on margins. We've enjoyed a very good demand situation in PTD. We've had excellent orders in capital sales in PTD throughout 2012, and that proposes that we will continue to have a very high level of capital sales of revenues in 2013. I cannot confirm your expectation of tailwind for 2013. I do not see any difference in margin content in the backlog compared to what we realized during the course of 2012. Finally, on Marine & Diesel and margins. Well, we've seen, again, a positive mix effect from more of aftermarket revenue with declining sales in Marine & Diesel, and that's really the bulk.

Of course, adjustments, of course, in capacities is having a role here as well.

Sven Weier
Analyst, UBS

Maybe one final follow-up question on the diesel business. Obviously, Wärtsilä has been having quite a number of huge tickets. Is it that these orders have been not placed yet with their suppliers, and is that penciling in with your Q1 guidance on an uptick in that business, or can you give us some more color on that, please?

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Yes. That's, I mean Wärtsilä and MAN are two important customers from us, and we see with the orders they've had coming in, we expect that we will benefit from that in the first quarter. That's the reason for the uptick.

Sven Weier
Analyst, UBS

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Johan Hultner of Handelsbanken Capital, Stockholm. Please ask your question.

Johan Hultner
Analyst, Handelsbanken Capital

Thank you. Good morning. Can you hear me?

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Yeah. No problem. Go ahead, thanks.

Johan Hultner
Analyst, Handelsbanken Capital

Great. I have three questions. Firstly, on the oil and gas segment, you mentioned a slight decline here in Q4. I wonder if you could give us some more flavor of the more longer-term trend there and your expectations for this year, perhaps. Secondly, on your products in marine environmental segment, PureSOx, PureDry, et cetera. You gave us some good examples on the Capital Markets Day. Maybe we could get an update on the activity level in this segment. Lastly, I wonder on the aftermarket business in Marine & Diesel, how is activity here, and can you say anything about the outlook for this particular segment? If you believe that the shipping companies will continue to maintain their ships?

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Yeah.

Johan Hultner
Analyst, Handelsbanken Capital

Yeah.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Okay. The first one, oil and gas. It is still a high activity level. We did not book so many large orders

Lars Renström
CEO, Alfa Laval

The fourth quarter, we continue to be quite optimistic about oil and gas. We see a high activity level, a high tendering activity, and perhaps a bit fewer of the very large contracts. All in all, we are very optimistic about oil and gas, and it is a high priority area for Alfa Laval to increase our presence and penetration in that customer segment. For instance, the acquisition of ACE that we completed at the end of last year. When it comes to the environmental solutions in marine and diesel, PureSOx, there we booked our first commercial order, about EUR 6 million in December. We see a good activity level. We have many outstanding quotations, and we are increasing our internal resources. We expect orders to come in during the first half of 2013. We see an increasing acceptance for the SOx solution.

When it comes to PureNOx, there we also booked our first order in December 2012, which we also communicated in a press release. We see that things are gradually ramping up. Finally, when it comes to parts and service, there you can say, parts and service for equipment, that has been stable during the year, and that we see as a good sign. The ships are still sailing. They are still maintaining them. When it comes to parts and service for systems, there we have seen a growing order intake, since we have had more of repair jobs, very much on board offshore platforms. All in all, we expect a positive trend for parts and service when we combine those two.

Johan Hultner
Analyst, Handelsbanken Capital

Very good. Thank you for that. Just a quick follow-up on the PureDry. You mentioned that you were hoping to sell 100 units, 2013. Does this still stand at this point?

Lars Renström
CEO, Alfa Laval

We hope to book orders for that amount. For the time being, we have selected a number of important customers where we are supplying these units to, for them to evaluate. Our positive view on PureSOx remains, and we can see that our customers are very excited.

Johan Hultner
Analyst, Handelsbanken Capital

Okay. Thank you very much.

Lars Renström
CEO, Alfa Laval

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Martin Prozesky of Sanford Bernstein, London. Please ask your question.

Martin Prozesky
Analyst, Sanford Bernstein

Good morning, everyone. I've got two questions, please. The first, on the Process Technology division, just the margin deterioration there. I know in the release you said it was mix and large orders. Can you give us a bit more color on the margin progression there? How much of it was loading-related? How that is likely to develop, given the good order intake that we've seen now in Process Technology division? Just how long dated is that backlog on the orders that came in? Second, on the increased dividend and the 5% buyback. Given that free cash flow this year was weaker than the last 2 years, my number says around SEK 3 billion for the year. Net debt to EBITDA is now close to 1x.

Does this signal that there'll be fewer acquisitions in the immediate short term, and that there's more of a focus on cash return to shareholders?

Lars Renström
CEO, Alfa Laval

To begin with, Process Technology division and margins, as I commented on an earlier question, we had an increased part of capital sales. We will continue to have a further increase, we believe, based on current demand outlook of capital sales, in 2013. From that perspective, the situation will be more sort of the same as we've seen during the latter part of 2012. Generally, or when it comes to the outlook for margins, I do not provide any more detail than what I mentioned to begin with in my presentation. For Q1, for the short term, we anticipate a positive mix effect as capital sales will, relative to Q4, go down. For the rest, we have no further major variations foreseen.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

When it comes to dividends, well, debt to EBITDA was 0.8 at the end of 2012, still, I would argue well below 1, and far from any parameters defined by our lending banks, obviously. Lars commented on acquisitions and confirmed that we will continue to make complementary acquisitions during 2013.

Lars Renström
CEO, Alfa Laval

No change when it comes to the use of cash in 2013.

Martin Prozesky
Analyst, Sanford Bernstein

Thank you. Just one follow-up on the margin. I appreciate the guidance can't be more detailed, but just if I look year-on-year, 600 basis points down on the 21.1 from Q4 2011. I'm more interested in understanding the effects that drove that more than the specific guidance. Is that?

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Well-

Martin Prozesky
Analyst, Sanford Bernstein

The margin mix within between projects are quite extreme, the variance that we see between projects.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Well, if I list out one company that had an effect on net margins in 2011, they've had an effect on gross margins for 2012. If we look at the Olmi company in Italy, they've doubled sales, but gross margins are lower.

Martin Prozesky
Analyst, Sanford Bernstein

Okay.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Substantially lower. If we look at net margins, we have enjoyed a turnaround from a fairly substantial negative number to a slight positive number during the course of 2012. I think that's really well done. We've had an adverse mix effect in gross margin from the fact that they doubled sales.

Martin Prozesky
Analyst, Sanford Bernstein

Yes. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Andrei Kuklin of CS London. Please ask your question.

Andre Kukhnin
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Good morning. It's Andrei from Credit Suisse. A couple of questions, please. One is on internal inflation, raw materials, and labor. Firstly, what you're looking for in terms of raw materials, and secondly, on labor, I remember a year ago we were talking a lot about emerging markets, labor inflation. Where are we now? If you could wrap that also sort of in relation to the price increase that you're pushing through. Would that be enough to offset any of these pressures?

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Okay. Looking at raw materials, if we look at the development up until, I would say, the beginning of December, we were looking at sort of a downward trend for the alloys, and we were looking at a stable situation when it comes to, say, the core price component for stainless steel. In recent weeks, we've seen quite a substantial increase in alloys, so that will, of course, have an adverse effect if that continues or if that remains. As far as labor inflation is concerned, of course, we have to work on productivity to cover for labor inflation, and of course, we are making our best efforts to compensate ourselves with price adjustments. Absolutely our ambition, as it has been always, is to at least compensate for these kinds of parameters.

Andre Kukhnin
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Very clear. Thank you. Just a broader question. In the Process Technology and Equipment divisions, during 2012, do you think you took market share or stayed broadly in line with the market or lost share? These are kind of businesses that are harder to track for us.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

We are in such a variety of business, but I would say in most businesses, we kept market share, and for some applications and for some products, we definitely took market share.

Andre Kukhnin
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Great. The final question, you mentioned negative costing effect from Aalborg in 2012. Could you quantify that? Is there any other kind of those type of sort of non-repeat small effects that were there in 2012, adjusted EBITDA?

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

if we look at the accounting adjustments in Aalborg, they had only an effect between overheads and cost of goods. No effect on EBITDA or EBITDA as such. It's merely a matter of applying fully loaded costing on our products instead of a more like contribution kind of approach that was applied previously in Aalborg.

Andre Kukhnin
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

As a further reminder, if you do wish to ask a question today, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. That's star and one to ask a question. We have another question from Johan Hultner of Handelsbanken, Stockholm. Please ask your question.

Johan Hultner
Analyst, Handelsbanken Capital

just a quick follow-up on your production level and inventories. I just noted that your inventories are down year sequentially, and your sales, of course, seasonally are up. Have you run your production on a normal rate, or have you produced less in the quarter to deliberately take down inventories? If so, did that have any impact on profitability?

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

To begin with, remember that the bulk of our business is manufactured to order. It's not manufactured to inventory. That's very important to remember. When it comes to factory load, we've had an increase in load quarter four over quarter four of 2011. Still, we do have, in most areas, still substantial additional capacity. Very few exceptions where we are running at peak load.

Johan Hultner
Analyst, Handelsbanken Capital

Okay.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Better year-on-year, and a load comparable to quarter three. We did not make any particular, say, adjustments, year-end adjustments in the way we were producing or adjusting inventories, no.

Johan Hultner
Analyst, Handelsbanken Capital

Okay.

Thomas Thuresson
CFO, Alfa Laval

Only the effects of a sort of long Christmas and New Year holiday.

Johan Hultner
Analyst, Handelsbanken Capital

Yeah. Perfect. Very good to know. That's very clear. Thank you.

Operator

We have no further questions at this time. Mr. Renström, please continue.

Lars Renström
CEO, Alfa Laval

Well, I want to thank all you listeners for your contribution and wishing you a continued good day. Thank you, all of you.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.