Welcome to BioArctic Q3 Report 2024. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode. During the questions-and-answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key five on their telephone keypad. Now, I will hand the conference over to CEO Gunilla Osswald and CFO Anders Martin-Löf. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and welcome to BioArctic's presentation for the third quarter of 2024. I have three key messages for today. The first one is that our projects are progressing very well, and I'm really excited about our brain transporter technology, where we now have been presenting data publicly, and I will show some of those data here today. Exidavnemab, our project for Parkinson's disease, has phase II-A with screening of patients. My second message is that Leqembi sales are increasing, resulting in over 60% higher royalties for us compared to the previous quarter. The market in the U.S. continues to grow, and Japan and China are above expectations, and the regulatory processes continue, and we are eagerly awaiting CHMP opinion tomorrow. The third message is that we have a solid financial situation, so we can focus on progressing our projects in a good way.
And then we take the next slide, please. I'm Gunilla Osswald, I'm the CEO of BioArctic, and I will share today's presentation with our CFO, Anders Martin-Löf. We have also invited Per-Ola Freskgård, our Vice President of Science and Technology, and he's also the leader of our brain transporter program, and also Anna-Kaija Grönblad, our Chief Commercial Officer. And they are here for the Q&A part of the presentation. Next slide, please. BioArctic is listed at Nasdaq Stockholm Large Cap, and this is our disclaimer. Next slide, please. As you know, BioArctic, we focus on disease-modifying treatments for neurodegenerative disorders, and we are among the leaders in the world in two different areas. The first one is for highly selective antibodies targeting aggregated forms of misfolded proteins for Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and ALS.
We also have a brain transporter technology, which helps the biological treatments across the blood-brain barrier to get higher concentrations in the brain where the target is for the treatment. Our business model focuses on innovation of new treatments for neurodegenerative disorders. We are also becoming a platform company with a brain transporter technology. An important part of our business model is partnering, and we see three types of partnering. The first one is for large indications like Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease, where our aim is to partner before phase II-B or at least before phase III. For orphan drug indications, BioArctic can drive the programs longer ourselves and potentially all the way to the market. For our brain transporter technology platform, we can also partner with companies that want their biologics to have increased brain penetration. Next slide, please.
So today I will start with the first message, which is about our pipeline and how well that is progressing. And there are three things I want to start to mention. First, about our brain transporter technology. Some of our patents are now public, and we have preclinical data validating our brain transporter technology in transgenic mice and in non-human primates. The data demonstrate a rapid, broad, and deep brain distribution of the BT-coupled Aβ antibodies. Exidavnemab, which is our most advanced alpha-synuclein program, has initiated phase II-A study in Parkinson's disease patients, and we plan to start dosing later this year. And we're also exploring to include MSA patients. Our founder, Professor Lars Lannfelt, he received the Lifetime Award at the big CTAD Congress in Madrid a couple of weeks ago.
The Alzheimer's disease research community with experts, they emphasized and acknowledged his great efforts for Alzheimer's disease patients with new innovative treatments like lecanemab, which is based on his innovative research in Alzheimer's disease. Next slide, please. The brain has a natural barrier to protect the brain, and that is called the blood-brain barrier, and that is making it difficult for treatments to get into the brain, and especially biologicals, which are a little bit larger, like antibodies. At BioArctic, we focus on brain disorders, and therefore this kind of technology is critical for us. We are highly engaged in this area, and we invest in getting new treatments with improved brain penetration. We utilize the transferrin receptor to get active transport of our antibodies across the blood-brain barrier. Our brain transporter approach is unique in several ways.
For example, with where we bind to the transferrin receptor, the binding site is the protease-like domain of the transferrin receptor. And this is positioned near the cell membrane, which makes the safety profile for hematology parameters improved, especially with regard to reticulocytes, for example. The BT technology will increase brain exposure of the antibody. It can give a broader distribution in the brain, making it possible to reach deeper brain structures. A fast blood-brain barrier transport results in rapid brain exposure and the potential for a fast effect. The increased exposure and broader distribution can potentially lead to a better effect as well. Lower doses can also result in better convenience for the patients, and we strive for subcutaneous administration. It could also lead to better safety due to lower doses and different distribution in the brain. Next slide, please.
We see a stronger and broader and deeper brain distribution with a BT approach. It has now been validated in transgenic mice and in non-human primates. In the picture you see to the left, you see double transgenic mice with a human transferrin receptor and the 5xFAD mice, and they are overexpressing amyloid deposits in the brain. To the left, you see a brain where we have used a normal Aβ antibody, and you see some green of the antibody, especially in the ventricles. When we engineer the amyloid beta antibody and combine it with our brain transporter technology, then we get dramatically more antibody into the brain, as you can see in the green picture to the right. I think a picture says more than a thousand words. To the far right of this slide, you see some data from our non-human primate study.
You can see that we get substantially higher brain exposure of our amyloid beta antibody in different regions. Here we show, for example, cortex and striatum, but it's also for hippocampus and other places. We see up to 70-fold increased levels versus the naked antibody. Importantly, when you work in this area, and as we see with several other transferrin receptor technologies, they have shown issues with hematology and reticulocyte decrease. Our safety profile so far looks very good without affecting hematology, including reticulocytes that you can see down to the right. In summary, I think we have very encouraging data, and we have now combined our technology with projects in all our disease areas with antibodies for Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, ALS.
We have also started to combine it with enzyme replacement therapies, like with GCase, where we are aiming to address CNS symptoms of Gaucher disease. This area is very much in focus, and this has been seen, for example, in recent deals in the industry, and we see an increased interest by potential partners. Next slide, please. Our alpha-synuclein portfolio is also progressing very well. I think there are many opportunities in several neuronal synucleinopathies such as Parkinson's disease, Parkinson's disease dementia, Lewy body dementia, and prodromal stages, and also orphan drug indications like multiple system atrophy. I think it's reassuring that biomarkers are available now to identify the right patients with pathological alpha-synuclein. We will also use this in phase II-A study with exidavnemab. Next slide, please.
Phase II-A study with exidavnemab will be performed in patients with mild to moderate Parkinson's disease, and we call the study EXIST. The design is a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial with a low and a high dose compared to placebo. The primary endpoint is safety and tolerability. The key secondary endpoints are pharmacokinetics and immunogenicity, and then we have exploratory endpoints, several of them, so several biomarkers, both biochemical biomarkers as well as digital, motor, and cognition markers, which are relevant for patients and an important preparation for the next proof-of-concept study. The study will be performed in Spain and in Poland, and the screening of patients has already started, and we plan to start treatment during this quarter. We are also exploring possibilities to add a new cohort of patients with MSA. Next slide, please.
So in summary of this part of the presentation, our portfolio is progressing really well, and today I've highlighted our brain transporter projects and exidavnemab. And then next slide, please, and we come to my second part of my presentation, which is about Leqembi. The number of patients treated with Leqembi continues to grow, and I think it's very reassuring to hear that the clinical safety experience is on par or better than reported in the phase III program. On the commercial side, royalties increased with more than 60% for this third quarter compared to the second quarter this year, resulting in royalties of about SEK 70 million to BioArctic. We see continued growth in the U.S. market and an impressive growth in Japan and China, where it exceeds expectations.
Eisai has lowered their outlook due to the slower uptake in the beginning now in the U.S., and Anders will discuss this further. On the regulatory side, Leqembi is approved and also launched now also in Hong Kong, Israel, United Arab Emirates, and also now in Great Britain. Regulatory authorities are reviewing lecanemab files, and that's ongoing in 17 different markets and regions, including the E.U., and as we know, we're waiting for the CHMP opinion tomorrow. Eisai has finalized the rolling submission of the subcutaneous autoinjector for maintenance dosing at the end of October. On the development side, Eisai are continuing to do a lot of different things. For example, the AHEAD 3-45 study, the phase III study, has completed recruitment by mid-October.
The study is for preclinical Alzheimer's disease individuals, and this means individuals with elevated levels of amyloid deposits in the brain, but they do not yet have any symptoms, and they will receive the treatment with either lecanemab or placebo for four years. During the latest Alzheimer's Congress, CTAD, Eisai presented new data from the
Phase III Clarity AD study, and those further support both early and maintained treatment. Next slide, please. Lecanemab is the first disease-modifying treatment for Alzheimer's disease with full approval in the U.S., Japan, and China, and it's on its way to be established as a standard of care treatment for Alzheimer's patients. If we look at the U.S., IV administration every second week is approved and broadly reimbursed since July last year. A supplementary BLA is under review for less frequent maintenance dosing once a month with a PDUFA date in January next year.
In October, Eisai completed the rolling submission of the new BLA for subcutaneous administration with an autoinjector for maintenance treatment. And Eisai is also preparing a submission for induction treatment with subcutaneous autoinjector to be submitted after the approval of the subcutaneous maintenance treatment. As I said, in Japan and China, the launch is exceeding expectations. And in Europe, we're waiting for the CHMP opinion following the re-examination. And we expect the information tomorrow. And of course, we hope it will be positive so we also can give Alzheimer's patients in Europe access to Leqembi. Lecanumab is also approved now in total in eight countries and regions and under review in another 17 countries and regions. Next slide, please.
I would like to share with you some of the key highlights from the CTAD Congress for Alzheimer's disease, which is one of the largest Alzheimer's congresses, and it was held in Madrid at the end of October. Eisai presented three years' long-term data with lecanemab, which showed increased patient benefit with maintained safety profile. We can see clear and meaningful long-term treatment effect, and that was shown over 36 months when all patients now have got lecanemab, either from the start, which means three years' treatment, or if they had placebo in the core study, then they have been treated for 18 months. If we look at the graph to the left, we see the benefit increased over time. The benefit was 0.45 on the CDR sum of boxes scale after 18 months, and it doubled to 0.95 after three years.
Patients get benefit if they start treatment early, then they get more benefit. And that's what you see in the green top curve. But we also see that patients can benefit by starting later, as we see with the middle curve, where the green is when they have, the black is when they had placebo, and the green is when they have started to get lecanemab. And we can compare that with the purple curve, which is a matched historical control group from ADNI. And also, I think it's very reassuring to hear the experience from key opinion leaders, from clinical practice, from both the U.S. and from Japan. They reported at CTAD a wide patient acceptance and compliance. Very few patients want to stop treatment. They also concluded that the treatment is safe and no new safety findings reported, and that the side effects are manageable.
The side effects in focus are especially ARIA-E and ARIA-H, and they are similar to the clinical studies, even though it's now being used in clinical practice. They are mainly asymptomatic and transient and come during the first six months. Very few ARIAs are reported after six months. The patient journey is improving in several ways, for example, with blood-based biomarkers. Safety matters, of course, and approximately 18,000 patients have now been treated with Leqembi. And I think it's reassuring that no new safety findings have been reported and that there is a low frequency of ARIA after the first six months. And that the key opinion leaders concluded that these side effects are manageable with a lower or similar frequency than what's seen in the clinical trials. Next slide, please.
More data that were presented at CTAD supporting starting treatment earlier, and that could benefit patients more and also to continue dosing. At the Alzheimer's Congress called the AAIC in July, then Eisai presented the graph to the left, which I think is very encouraging data from a small sub-study in patients with no or very low Tau, which means that they are early in their disease. 60% of these patients had improved after 18 months, and more than 50% were still doing better after 36 months. We should, of course, be a bit careful since only 40 patients are part of this sub-study, but I think it's encouraging and further emphasized the importance of starting treatment early. Now at CTAD, at this congress, Eisai presented the graph to the right.
And now there are more patients that are in early stages, and they are then measured by amyloid PET and had baseline levels below 60 Centiloids. What we see here is that after 18 months of Lecanemab treatment, there were 51% less decline versus placebo. And this is in contrast to the full population of the study, which was 27% less decline versus placebo. We see similar results also when we look at other scales measuring cognition and activities of daily living. I think also it's very exciting, and we hear more and more patient stories with patients benefiting from Leqembi treatment. Next slide, please. Lecanemab development continues with subcutaneous autoinjector, which could make administration much more convenient and possible to give at home in an easier way. And I think this is of great support for the patients and for society.
The blood-based biomarkers for diagnosis will also simplify the patient journey and help to identify patients in a much easier way than to do it with PET scans and CSF samplings, which sometimes could be challenging. This development is going really well. Professor Suzanne Schindler from WashU, she presented data at CTAD on blood-based biomarkers and stating that prime time is now. It's already used now for screening, and I think the usage for confirmation is not far away, could be expected next year and onwards. Treatment earlier has shown more benefit, which is encouraging for the phase III AHEAD 3-45 study in subjects who do not yet have symptoms, but they have elevated amyloid deposits in the brain. This study is already using blood-based biomarkers to identify the right patients, and recruitment has now been completed. Next slide, please.
By that, I hand over to the third key message about our solid finances, and I will hand over to Anders Martin-Löf.
Thank you, Gunilla. I'll start to talk a little bit about the Leqembi revenues on this slide. It's been known for a while that the global sales of Leqembi in the third quarter were roughly JPY 10 billion or $67 million. That means that our royalties that you see on the left-hand side increased to SEK 69.8 million. That's a 64% increase over the second quarter of 2024, or if you like, 3,200% over the third quarter of 2023. We're seeing very, very rapid growth in our royalty revenues.
If we look a little bit on the different geographies, the sales in the U.S. were JPY 5.9 billion in the third quarter or $39 million, and that's roughly 30% higher than in the second quarter, and it seems that there is a very good demand. Initially, it was thought that diagnosis with PET and CSF would be a bottleneck. That's what the market expected. That does not seem to be the case, and that has actually been facilitated by the start of the implementation of using blood-based biomarkers for pre-screening patients in the U.S., so even though PET capacity is fairly scarce, when you use blood-based biomarkers, you can pre-qualify the patients, and you have a lot more patients that are actually positive when they do their PET scans.
So that has helped the diagnosis process, and the inflow of patients is now fairly big, and it is feasible to get reimbursement. However, what Eisai has seen now lately is that there has been a bottleneck in infusion capacity. So they stated that they have roughly 6,000 patients lined up that could not be treated due to the lack of infusion capacity. They're working really hard on that problem and have contracted more facilities, and the capacity is expected to increase by 90% in the following two quarters. So they're expecting to treat the 6,000 patients that are lined up for treatment, but that has held back the sales in the U.S. during the last few quarters. I think this also underlines the importance of the subcutaneous administration.
If Leqembi is going to grow to hundreds of thousands of patients, infusion capacity could become a really big problem in the world. But we are in a fortunate position that the subcutaneous version is evolving really, really well. Eisai is expecting approval for maintenance therapy using the subcutaneous version by mid next year and with induction therapy towards the beginning of 2026. So I think these problems will be alleviated over time. If we then turn to Japan, we saw very rapid growth, 80% from the second quarter up to JPY 2.7 billion or $18 million. They're now treating some 5,000 patients over 800 facilities, and that's almost half of what they're treating in the U.S., where they've been going for a much longer time. So I think the Japanese market is doing really well.
Here, I think it's interesting to note that they're now starting a direct-to-consumer campaign to raise awareness about mild cognitive impairment and to promote early diagnosis, and as Gunilla showed, early diagnosis is going to be really, really important. I think the largest growth area in the coming years will be mild cognitive impairment, especially since that's probably the period of the disease when we can have the largest impact, so I think what you see in Japan will be followed in other regions that you start to focus on these earlier patients. Turning then to China, where the product was launched in late June, they sold for about JPY 1.2 billion in the first quarter, where it was actually on the market, so $8 million. So already up to 3,000 patients in China in the first quarter of sales, which is really, really strong.
Here, Eisai is using a self-pay model. There is no reimbursement from the larger healthcare system, and they're relying solely on blood-based biomarkers and using a digital platform. And this is also a model that I think could be copied and used in different parts of the world over time. We will not see that short term, but in the longer term, I think blood-based biomarkers and focusing on MCI and using subcutaneous version is where we are heading in the years to come. All in all, due to the slightly slower development in the U.S., Eisai reduced their fiscal year forecast. It was JPY 56.5 billion or $370 million, and they reduced it down to JPY 45 billion or $208 million. That means that they're expecting sales of roughly $170 million in the two quarters to come.
However, longer term, the mid and long-term forecasts have not been changed, and we still have the same belief in the potential of the product. It is a number of things that we have to sort out. It is a complicated product to administer in the beginning, and that is now being sorted out, but longer term, those problems will diminish since we have a number of developments that will help the implementation of Leqembi treatment going forward. If we then turn to the next slide, I will comment on our financials. On the left-hand side, you see our net revenues that decreased from the third quarter of 2023 from SEK 209 million to SEK 77 million . Of course, in 2023, we received a big milestone for the Japanese approval, so it's not really comparable. I should also mention that we're not expecting any milestone payments in the coming quarter.
We didn't get anything in Q3 this year, and we will not get any milestones in the fourth quarter, even if we see a positive CHMP opinion. That will then happen during next year if we get the positive opinion and approval. But I think you can also see the trend that from during the year, our revenues are growing, and that is what we expect to continue. Those are the royalty revenues that are growing over time, and that trend will, of course, continue. We also have some co-promotion revenues in there of SEK 3 million that will grow if we get the approval in Europe. We don't know that yet, but hopefully that will happen shortly if we get this positive CHMP opinion. Looking at the costs on the mid graph, you see that their operating expenses increased to SEK 95 million from SEK 78 million one year ago.
R&D is now 72% of our total operating expenses, so it was SEK 68 million in the third quarter of this year. That's roughly 100% higher from a year ago when it was SEK 33 million. However, it's down from the second quarter when our R&D expenses were SEK 84 million, and this is fairly lumpy. It goes up and down a little bit when we have larger payments for clinical trials and CMC work, but the long-term trend is that the cost will continue to increase on the R&D side as we are progressing our project portfolio. We're now, as Gunilla mentioned, starting our phase II trial with exidavnemab. We're also investing heavily in our other programs that are following behind that are making really good progress, and then we will invest significantly in CMC, etc., so you should expect growing R&D costs in the coming year.
We were planning to increase our spending in marketing and sales, but we have held back some recruitments until we get the final CHMP opinion. If that's positive, you'll see an increase in the next year. If not, probably not. We have previously guided that the full year cost would be roughly 30%-50% higher in 2024 over 2023. We're still in that range, and now I expect that the cost would be roughly 35%-40% higher in 2024 versus 2023. If we then turn to the right-hand side, you see that the operating loss was SEK 26 million, and that's when we made a profit in the third quarter of 2023. Of course, that was driven by a milestone received in 2023 that we did not get now.
But you also see, I think again, it's interesting to see the trend that without any milestones, we're also decreasing our loss. So it's really starting to see the impact of growing royalties that are starting to finance more and more of our R&D spending. If we turn to the next slide, you see that the net result was SEK 20 million, so that's roughly six million better than the operating result, and that's explained by financial net. On the middle graph, you see that the cash flow from operating activities was negative SEK 80 million. That's roughly 60 million lower than the net loss. And this is basically due to the delay of royalties that we get paid for the royalties roughly two quarters after the sales have occurred. So we have a growing accounts receivable. So our current assets containing these numbers are roughly SEK 110 million related to royalties.
On the right-hand side, you see our cash balance still very strong. We have over SEK 800 million, including short-term investments at the end of the third quarter. We think that we will end the year with more than SEK 700 million in cash and short-term investments. And going forward, we have mentioned this before, we will become profitable based on Leqembi royalties. So we will maintain a very, very strong financial situation going forward in the coming years. However, we will not talk today about exactly when we will become profitable. There are a number of moving parts, but long-term, this will lead to profitability. With that, I hand the word back to Gunilla for some closing remarks.
Thank you so much, Anders. So we are coming towards upcoming news flow and some closing remarks. So next slide, please. The upcoming news flow.
So this fourth quarter, we plan to start the phase II-A study in Parkinson's patients with the dosing. So we hope to be able to communicate that. And then we're also awaiting, of course, the CHMP opinion of lecanemab in E.U. tomorrow. We do not yet know the outcome. I think it's not decided yet, but of course, we're hoping for a positive outcome and then a potential approval in the European Commission within 67 days. In January next year, we also expect response from the FDA regarding less frequent monthly I.V. maintenance dosing of Leqembi in the U.S. And regarding the subcutaneous autoinjector, we expect responses next year regarding maintenance dosing and 2026 also for the induction treatment. And of course, we're also hoping for further regulatory approvals and launches in several other countries and regions. Next slide, please.
So to summarize today's presentation, our pipeline is progressing very well, and we are very encouraged by the brain transporter data that has been presented and generating a lot of interest. We're looking forward to the phase II-A start, and Leqembi is approved in eight geographies and now launched in seven of them, including U.S., Japan, and China, where there are very large patient populations with early Alzheimer's disease, and even a small part of the population will be huge, and it's gratifying that we can help many patients. Lecanemab royalties revenues continue to grow as the sales continue to increase, and we heard Anders explain that our finances remain solid, and we have about SEK 800 million in cash, which I think is great so we can focus on driving the project forward towards patients. Next slide, please.
So by that, I say thank you so much for your attention, and we're happy to take some questions.
If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Luisa Morgado from Van Lanschot Kempen.
Please go ahead. Go ahead, Luisa.
Oh, hi, team. Thank you for taking my question. Can you hear me?
Yeah. Yes, Luisa, we hear you.
You can hear me?
Yes.
Oh, okay, perfect. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. First of all, congrats on the brain transporter data.
And on that, my first question, could you please elaborate a bit on the results that you shared in terms of how should I look at benchmarks that should be used here, but also to understand a bit better how or if this technology would produce a similar increase in terms of brain exposure with any other Aβ antibody, or does that depend per antibody? So if you could elaborate a bit here, please.
So I think we hand over to Per-Ola Freskgård. Please, Per-Ola.
Yeah, thanks for the question. And it's quite an important question, obviously. And I mean, we're also using the transferrin receptor for crossing the blood-brain barrier. And we think based on our non-human primate and the boosting we see in this study that we get at least as much as other competitors see and potentially even more.
That could be due to the way we engage with the transferrin receptors. We're using quite novel binding site on the transferrin receptor. As Gunilla mentioned, we bind to the protease-like domain, which is very close to the cell membrane. That sort of hides the molecule when it binds to the transferrin receptor when it's on the blood side, making sure that it doesn't engage with the immune system, which are sort of also linked to the potential safety issue that maybe other companies have, which they are using a different binding site, which is more exposed to the blood side. We expect at least the same potency and delivery of our antibody and also due to this novel binding site on the transferrin receptor. As we have engineered from the start, we also expect to have maybe a more improved safety profile.
So I think in short, we stand very well in the competition. And also, I think that what we have seen now exemplified with this Aβ antibody linked to the brain transporter, I think we expect that to be a similar situation for other brain transporter-linked antibodies. Was that the answer to your question, Luisa?
Okay, thank you. That's quite helpful. And please correct me if I'm... Yeah, yeah, yeah, definitely. And please correct me if I'm wrong, but so you will likely share further data on the brain transporter technology at CTAD next year. If so, what kind of data update can we expect here?
Yeah, so we plan to share more data around our most advanced program where we're using the brain transporting technology. So it's based on the BAN 2003 program that we're running, which is already in the IND phase now. So further sort of additional data when it comes to CMC and development timelines for that program.
Okay, perfect. And maybe one final question regarding the blood-based diagnostics. Could you expand a bit on... So what do you foresee over the coming years? How do you see playing out in terms of using the blood-based biomarkers with other kinds of biomarkers, of course, imaging? When should we expect that they are starting to be used alone and overall impact on adoption of Leqembi?
Very good question. Thank you for that. So I think right now it's mainly being used for screening, which helps to see which of the patients that then should be confirmed by CSF or PET scan. But as was presented at CTAD, the time is very soon here for when you also can use the blood-based biomarkers directly for confirmation. So I don't think that's far away.
I think we'll start to see that happen next year and onwards. So I think, I mean, it's really, I think it's time now, and that will really help to find patients in an easier way. I think the first step with screening is really good, but it's really the confirmatory that would be really, really helpful. So it's soon here.
Okay, perfect. Thank you so much. That's all from my side.
Thank you so much, Luisa.
The next question comes from Viktor Sundberg from Nordea. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. So just one also here on the brain transporter technology.
I think your previous experiments have shown quite a different profile when comparing therapeutic doses of brain transporter antibodies versus trace dosing targeting the transferrin receptor, where some of your competitors have shown 40 x higher exposure at trace dosing, but only 1.5x higher at the therapeutic doses, which was explained in your patent documents. So I just wondered how you compare at therapeutic doses versus trace dosing in your more recent experiments that you showed here. I think your patent documents talked about 10 x higher at therapeutic doses and 80 x higher at trace dosing versus naked antibody, if I read it correctly. So I just wanted to get clarification on that. Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you.
Victor. So I think Per-Ola will answer the question.
Yeah. Yeah, thanks for the question. I think it's important to understand.
The full improvement that we disclose now is based on the non-human primate study. There it's done quite differently compared to when you do the study in rodents. In the non-human primate study, we use therapeutic dosing, which is relevant for clinical use. Then we compare that, obviously, with an antibody, the same antibody without a brain transporter linked to the antibody. The figure we disclose now is the more relevant one for clinical application. Also it's also based on sort of a more translatable animal model, if you like. That figure is, yeah, the most recent figure that we have disclosed, which is the most relevant one, I would say.
Okay, thank you very much. Just curious if you heard any rumors why Biogen handed back the rights to Denali for a similar brain transporting technology. Was that maybe safety-related, as you talked about or hinted to in your previous comment? Thank you.
I don't think I can comment on that, actually. What they mentioned was that it was not related to safety or efficacy in the press release. But obviously, you hear some rumors, but we don't comment on that kind of thing. So I pass on that.
Okay, thank you very much.
Thank you, Victor.
The next question comes from Joseph Hedden from RX Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, there. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on what looks like really interesting brain transporter data. Just a question on the potential E.U. milestone if you do get a positive CHMP tomorrow. Can you confirm if that would be around the same level as you would have expected for a first-time approval? And can you just remind us of what kind of ballpark that is? And then the second question, again, if you do get a positive CHMP opinion, when would you expect that you could make the first launches in the Nordic under your co-promotion agreement with ISI? Thank you.
So will you take the first one?
I can take the first question. Yes. So it's known that we were paid $25 million when we got approval in the U.S. and 2017 when we got it in Japan. And E.U. will be somewhere in between. And it doesn't matter if it has been re-examined or not. That has no impact on the size of the milestone. As for the second question, Gunilla, we should probably ask Anna-Kaija to give you an update.
Yes. And just to mention initially, of course, the market access process is led by Eisai. When it comes to hospital products, there are no exact timelines. They're kind of estimates. If we get a European Commission approval later at the beginning of next year, it might take everything from 6-18 months. I'm hoping that we could launch early 2026, something like that, in one of the countries, which is. Then.
Okay, thanks very much. Yeah.
Thank you so much, Joseph.
Yeah. Thank you.
The next question comes from Natalia Webster from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Thanks for taking my question. I just have a follow-up around the timeframes for your brain transport technology. I appreciate all the data and the sort of differentiators that you've mentioned. We've heard from Roche that it expects to slip to phase III dose next year, and they're suggesting a 2028 potential filing date. I wanted to understand broadly how far behind Roche you think your Alzheimer's project is.
Thank you so much for the question. So our most advanced brain transporter program is in Alzheimer's disease. And there we are about two years from going into the clinical setting. So 2026 is what we expect to go into the clinical setting. Then I think we can learn so much, both from lecanemab, donanemab, trontinemab, and others. So I think there is an opportunity to do a really good clinical development program. But I will not say any more dates than that we expect to go into mid-2026 with the first one.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you so much.
The next question comes from Fredrik Thor from Redeye. Please go ahead.
Hello, and thank you. My first question was about if lecanemab would not be approved in the re-examination. Do you have an expectation of what kind of new data you would have to send in? For example, could real-world data be enough for a resubmission, or would you probably need to do a new, or Eisai conduct a new clinical trial?
Thank you so much for the question, Fredrik. I mean, it depends very much on what happens. We will know by tomorrow what the outcome is, and then we'll have to digest and understand. If it's not a positive outcome, we need to understand why it's not a positive one. And then we will have to take it from there.
And a final question was about the bottleneck here was the infusion capacity. And as I mentioned, that they will increase it in Q4 and in Q1. Do you have any expectations on your own about how fast that will be? For example, when it comes to the remaining sales in the forecast that Eisai has given, should we expect it to be kind of even between Q4 and Q1 or more towards that sales will increase more in Q1, for example, if the bottleneck is very much here now?
Thanks for the question. So yes, we are expecting, of course, continued growth. We'd see a little less sales in Q4 of this year and a little bit more in the first quarter of next year. In terms of how fast the bottlenecks will be resolved, we can't comment more than Eisai did. They expect that the 6,000 patients that were waiting now for treatment to be treated in the coming two quarters, and that they have contracted capacity that will come online in the following two quarters. Exactly when in the two quarters has not been communicated, and we don't have any opportunity to comment more on that.
But we have seen press releases about companies who have been contracted. So I think it's happening.
Yes. Perfect. Thank you.
Thank you so much, Fredrik.
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad.
So Oskar here. It doesn't seem like there are any more people in queue right now. So I'll just go and look through the written questions. And we have one, Gunilla. And I'm not sure you're able to comment. But the question is from Goldman Sachs, Max at Goldman Sachs. And he's asking, what's your level of confidence in lecanemab's European approval?
Is there potential for the CHMP and other local regulators to take a similar strategy as the U.K. with the approval, that is, with a smaller without the ApoE4 homozygotes?
So I don't think anyone knows yet. I mean, we just have to wait until tomorrow when we will have the information from CHMP. And I don't want to speculate or comment anything more. I mean, we just have to wait until tomorrow.
Okay, thank you. And then there's another question, again, from Max at Goldman Sachs. And it's about ARIA and presymptomatic patients, so specifically in the AHEAD 3-45 study. And he wants to know if we know if there's any correlation between stage or severity of the disease and ARIA, and how confident we are if regulatory agencies would be concerned about ARIA in the very early patients.
To my knowledge, there has not been any correlation between stage and severity like that. I think that what we hear and heard at CTAD was that the key opinion leaders who have been using Lecanemab in clinical practice think this is manageable. I think we need to continue to follow this closely.
Thank you. There was an additional question too from Max, and that was about the differentiation of our technology relative to competitors when it comes to the brain transporter. I believe Per-Ola already answered that question previously.
Yeah, we have a unique BT technology to our knowledge. Really exciting data. We really look forward to that part.
And then another question that just popped up, and maybe that's for Anders or Anna-Kaija, and that's what's our expectation on the market for lecanemab in Europe if there would be a positive opinion and an approval?
Thank you. Well, we can just revert to Eisai's forecast. They do that once every year, and they did that in the beginning of this year, where they basically said that roughly 6% of lecanemab sales in 2026 were expected to come from Europe. And that number would grow to 14% in 2032, I think. So it is, of course, an important market. But out of the whole lecanemab market, it has limited potential, especially in the near term. But of course, that does not mean that it's unimportant to us. We certainly hope that lecanemab will get approval in Europe and that we will be able to help the patients in Europe.
Hope that answers the question.
Thank you. I don't see anybody more in the queue on the phone, and I also do not see any more questions in the written question section. So I think that sort of concludes. Gunilla, do you want to say any final words?
No, I'll just say thank you so much for your attention and for all great questions, and I wish you a great rest of the day and cross our fingers for tomorrow. Thank you so much.