Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Feb 11, 2021

Please go ahead, Anders. Thank you, Camilla. We turn to Page 3 in the presentation. And welcome, everyone. The agenda for today will be a brief overview of Welten, the market development, the result for the Q4 and finally some words about our focus for 2021 and going forward. But before we dive into the presentation, I just want to take a moment and recognize the outstanding work that's been done by All built in employees during 2020, a year that posed so many challenges and that really put every single built in employee to test. I'm extremely proud to lead this great team and present the 4th quarter in which we have delivered the highest sales, operating results and cash flow in Wilton's history. And not only thanks to the favorable development of PSM since our acquisition, but also thanks to strong organic growth. This to me is a sign that our strategy works. So next slide, please. As most of you know, Wilton is a supplier of fasteners, primarily to the automotive industry. But we don't just supply the hardware to many of our customers. We're a partner for product development support, innovation, procurement and logistics. In other words, we are a full service provider of fasteners. As you can see in this slide, Wilton has a broad customer base with light vehicle producers as the largest customer group. Wilton's 3 largest customers are Ford, Jaguar Land Rover and Volvo Cars. When acquiring PSM during the Q1 last year, we added a number of automotive customers, primarily Tier 1 suppliers, but also customers outside the automotive industry. To be an approved supplier to this many customers is a strength. Customers value the way we cooperate with them and recognize for our service. Most of the customers in Wiltons' base have potential for further growth. Next slide please, Slide 5. Our geographical footprint is another unique advantage of Bilton. None of our competition has the geographical coverage that we have. Wilton's value chain is balanced between in house and outsourced production, and we can thereby be flexible and cost efficient. Including PSM, we have about 1600 employees. We offer local production in Europe, U. S, China, Taiwan and Russia, which is unique in our competitive set. Through an acquisition through the acquisition of Yes, we have an even more comprehensive geographical coverage than before. So turning to Page 7 and some words about the market development. Vehicle production in 2020 was, as everybody knows, heavily impacted by COVID-nineteen. For light vehicles, production dropped by close to 16% versus 2019 according to the latest figures from LMC8 Automotive. Corresponding statistics for heavy commercial vehicles show a drop of about 7%. For 2021, LMCA predicts a bounce back of light vehicle production volumes with an increase north of 17% and then a more normalized growth of approximately 5% in 2022. Heavy Commercial Vehicles is predicted to have a flat production rate in 2021 versus 2020 and then grow slightly in 2022 by just over 3%. And we turn to Page 9 for highlights of the Q1. Overall, Q4 was very good quarter for In Q4, we had a stable demand for bolt in, thanks to good customer mix, a ramp up of new contracts and good development for PSM. Positive margin impact as a result of increased capacity utilization and efficiency initiatives, which were accelerated during the pandemic, had a positive effect on both cost and capital efficiency. This will have a lasting effect on our performance going forward. We made improvements to our manufacturing footprint. Now in January, we held the grand opening of our new production facility in Taipei and the move to a new U. S. Facility in Streetsboro, Ohio It was also fully completed. In Streetsboro, we have also signed a contract for fossil free electricity supply, which is in line with our sustainability strategy. We're also happy to have recruited Anna Aukeblad as our new CFO and of the group management. She will assume our position in March. The Board will also propose to the AGM earn a dividend for 2020 of SEK 2 per share. And I'll now leave the word over to Claus to run through the figures in more detail. Okay. Thank you, Anders. Let's start with our net sales and order bookings. On this page, you can see our quarterly net sales development together with order bookings. As Anders mentioned, the upturn in the Q3 continued into the Q4 with a continued strong demand for our products. Net sales for the group amounted to SEK1080 1,000,000 in the quarter, an increase of SEK296 1,000,000 compared to the same period last year, a new record level for Bullstone. Net sales improvement is explained by strong organic growth, partly coming from the FSP contract signed in July Last year as well as other contracts ramping up, also good development from PSM made a contribution Sales of SEK 129,000,000 in Q4. Order bookings amounted to SEK1188 1,000,000, an increase of 41% compared to the corresponding period last year. Now let's move on to our financial summary of the 4th quarter. Next slide, please. On this slide, you can see our financial summary of the 4th quarter. As mentioned on the previous page, bolt on performed a record high net sales with improvement on both gross profit and strong leverage on EBIT level compared to the same period 2019. Profitability development is mainly driven by volume, a positive outcome of efficiency in mix effects and increased capacity the utilization. Earnings per share before dilution is calculated to SEK2.96 for the quarter. Looking at our 2020 adjusted full year earnings, it was lower than 2019 due to the COVID-nineteen situation. However, sales and profitability has bounced back in the second half of the year. Next slide, please. Our earnings performance was affected by the improved volumes in the quarter. EBIT amounted to SEK 92,000,000 in the quarter. Our EBIT margin for the 4th quarter amounted to 8.5%, an improvement compared to the comparable quarter last year of 5 percentage points. Adjusted EBIT margin for the quarter, together with currency effects of SEK 8,000,000 when converting working capital at the closing day rate, amounting to 8.6% compared to last year's quarter with an adjusted EBIT of 5.7% So restructuring costs in Germany, relocation costs in China and acquisition costs for PSM and a currency effect of minus SEK 4,000,000. Next slide, please. During the last three quarters, a strong focus has been on cash management and our net working capital. The cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital amounted to SEK121 1,000,000 in Q4. Thanks to focused cash management efforts with a good development of customer receivable payments, working capital has decreased in the quarter. Cash flow from the change amounted to SEK 55,000,000 and contributed to a positive cash flow from the operating activities in total, which amounted to SEK 176,000,000. Cash flow from investing activities amounted to minus SEK 90,000,000 in the quarter, Again, a much lower level than before as we have, as you know, halted operational and property investments during the uncertain time. In total, the cash flow for the quarter was positive and amounted to SEK 91,000,000 with a cash position of SEK 236,000,000 at the end of the quarter. Our net debt, excluding lease liabilities, has reduced since the beginning of the year and amounted to SEK 112,000,000 at the end of the quarter. Next slide, please. Key indicators. Our key indicators have improved in Q4 and are, on a full year basis, almost on par compared to 2019. This is, of course, a satisfying trend considering the lower profitability level and lower capital turnover times during a major part of the year due to the COVID-nineteen situation. We have a return on capital employed of 5.4% or adjusted relocation, restructuring and acquisition costs of 5.2%. Our net debt to EBITDA ratio Adjusted for lease liabilities is at 0.4% at the end of the quarter. This, in combination with an equity ratio of 55% at the end of the quarter shows that bolt ons financials is on a very solid level. Next slide, please. Financial targets and guidelines. On this slide, you can see our financial targets as well as some of the guidelines regarding Relevant key figures for bolt on. In terms of reaching our financial targets, we are now clearly moving in the right direction. On a quarterly basis, we're above our financial targets when it comes to the growth and profitability. And also in the right hand table, you can see some guidelines for some other key figures. We normally give some comments on these guidelines, but as Our business has been a very special situation since our key figures is calculated on rolling 12 months. Further detailed comments may not be so relevant for this quarter, but we will, of course, try to improve the key figures gradually. I will now hand over to Anders again and our plans going forward. Okay. Thanks, Claus. And I would like to turn you to Page 17 to talk about some of the focus areas for 2021. Even though quarter 4 delivered solid growth and improved margins, The macro economy, as everybody knows, is not yet stable and the effects of the pandemic are difficult to predict. We're not yet out of the woods. The well known microprocessor shortage in the world is another factor that comes into play in the first half of 2021 and which may impact our customers' production. Given the market uncertainties, we stay focused on cost and cash flow but also on our preparedness to meet higher demand when the market comes back to high volumes. We still have previously announced electric vehicle contracts to launch between now and 2022, where a majority of our new contracts are now in production and will benefit us greatly when the market volumes recover. We'll continue to work on margin improvements, which we have successfully done recently. There are still synergies to be realized with PSM and in sourcing initiatives that are being executed as we speak. We are in product focused business and will step up our innovation activities in order to offer both functionality and sustainability to our customers. During 2020, we'll take important steps, both when it comes to innovation and sustainability with the launch of Bufo E and our collaboration with TensionCAM for sensorization of threaded joints, followed by our following our minority stake acquisition last year in that company. Our sales force under new leadership of Marcus Baum are using our track record of Successful new contract launches as well as the greater customer exposure that come from the combined customer base of both in the PSM to accelerate business wins and thereby generate additional organic growth. Turning to Slide 18, please. So let me conclude this presentation then with showing you our stronger 'twenty four strategy. And those of you who used to tune into our Presentations, you recognize this slide. It's the road map for how we will go about reaching our targets. Presented for the first time exactly a year ago, just before the COVID outbreak, it's divided into 4 building blocks. To start with, we have our strong position with the uniqueness that's taken bolt into what it is today. Our clear ambition 3 years from now, is to have further advanced our position when it comes to quality and technology leadership. The second block is growth. We now have growth momentum, both organically through the contracts we ramped up and non organically through the acquisition of PSM. Despite the past year's turbulence, we hold on to the aim of reaching 5,000,000,000 sales in 2024. And I think you can see that we're ahead of that curve with our current sales pace. The same applies to our profitability efforts. Our margin expansion will come through the obvious synergies with PSM, Improved exposure to customers in North America and China accelerated initiatives to improve efficiencies in production and distribution and through launching new technology with a value add for our customers. We aim for an EBIT margin above 8%. We also have a strong financial position, and this is something I really want to emphasize, and I think you can see that come through in our numbers. To summarize, the global downturn has not eroded the validity of our strategy. Our position is strong. We stand by our targets, and we stay committed to all the building blocks of the strategy to get there. And that concludes the presentation, and we're ready for Q and A. Thank Please ask your question. We have a question from the line of Max Friedian from Danske Bank. Please go ahead. Thank you so much. Good afternoon. I just wondered if you could say how much of sales that was the SEK 600,000,000,000 The contract in the quarter, you said it was running at full production at the end of Q4. So we're interested to hear. How much of it? Well, it was basically a pro rata of the full pace in quarter 4. So I think you can run the numbers. It is in full production as it has been since September approximately. So I think you can do the math backwards there. Yes, I can. The 10th September is very helpful. And then my second question is, did you see an impact of component shortage in Q4 already? That's the first one and then the follow-up. The answer is no. Actually, our Customer base has been lucky in that respect. They haven't had any production disturbances from the microprocessor shortage per se. They've had other disturbances because of COVID-nineteen and absenteeism in their plants, etcetera, but it's been minor, I have to say. We're hoping for the best, but I think we'll probably see some effects of it in the first half. And I assume, if I just try to make something out of that, that you haven't seen it Already in Q1 as well, but you still expect it to come, which means that you handled this so far well. We haven't had any microprocessor related disturbances so far. Correct. Our next Question comes from the line of Kenneth Johansson from Carnegie. Please go ahead. Thank you. Yes, so continue on this See my conductive shortages first. Do you believe that it could result in a very volatile production? I mean, you performed the best margin wise when you have a quite even Demand, so you can plan manning and your capacity to it. But in semiconductor shortage, maybe it could sort of Change production plans for your customers with short notice. Is that a fear you have? It's a good question, Kenneth, but we have a bit of a cushion between our manufacturing facilities and our customers. And depending on how long These production stoppages will be it would impact our production to varying degree. But if it's a matter of a plant Customer plant going down for 1 or 2 days, that's not going to impact our production planning much because of the batch sizes and the finished goods cushion that we have in between ourselves and the customers. Okay. And then one hot Topic right now is higher steel costs. So do you see that higher raw material costs Could affect you? Or will you be able to pass those cost increases on to your customers with no delays? As we've talked about before, we have most of our customer contracts covered by raw material clauses in one or another way. They have one thing in common and that is that we adjust prices retroactively. So That means that there is a lag where when prices go up, we take a bit of a hit and then we get it back. So it's bad when prices go up, but it's very good that prices go down. So there is a lag, yes, in it. And that, I have to say, is the usual way of regulating that in the industry. Okay. Great. And then also you did quite a lot of cost Savings last year that we see the benefits of now in Q4 in terms of higher margins and so on. But Do you see now when the demand is picking up again and you're running at high capacity, do you see those costs coming back? Or Do you think a large part of those cost cutting were more of a structural nature? Those are of our structural nature. So the cost savings that we've realized during last year, they will stick, and they will benefit us also when volumes come back. Great. And then finally, you mentioned the balance sheet that is very, very strong currently. So are you I guess you're considering to restart the project with the Polish plant. Are there other Capacity increases you need to do? Or are you looking more actively for acquisitions? Or how do you plan to spend the money? Well, we currently don't have any technical restrictions in our capacities. We can supply all our customers customer demands that we see we can supply with technical capacity we have. So that doesn't mean that we have to invest heavily. When it comes to the Polish plant, We're evaluating that on a running basis. And when we make a decision to actually start constructing, we'll let you know. But even if you pursue that project over A year, 2 years or so, your balance sheet will still remain very strong. So are you looking to do more acquisitions? We never say never. It's something that we keep our eyes open but there's nothing around the corner. Okay. Okay. Thank you very much. We have a question from the line of Mats List from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Yes. Hi, thank you. Good numbers. Congrats To them. And I guess, well, coming back to these order bookings and so on, and it certainly Seems to move your way there. I was just wondering, do you see any sort of preordering down among customers just to Maybe refilling inventories to secure the supply chain or something like that. There was a little bit of that going on towards the end of last year in the U. K. Because everyone was expecting disturbances at the border. But it wasn't to the extent that you could think, I mean, it was marginal actually. There was a little bit of that going on, but And that impacted also some of our inventories, but Nothing much and nothing other than that, I would say. In China, there's always a little bit of preordering before Chinese New Year, but That's also a natural cycle, more or less, seasonability of the Chinese market. Yes, Great. And then I guess, I mean, looking at the margin target there, You look to 8.5% in the Q4, and I guess maybe it's a good quarter in some Well, but it's I mean, it's not out of the it's not that unusual either. So I guess going forward, I think it sounds a bit conservative to have a target of 8%. Or if we are do I misinterpret these We speak now and maybe underestimate that there are costs coming up now, which has sort of, whilst tried to Hold back during the COVID year. Could you say something about that? We're not sort of restating our target at this point. We may come back to that at a later occasion, but we also need to remember that it's This has to be an enduring thing that needs to cover a full year as well. So we stick to the target from now. And if we have reason to revise it, We'll come back when we're ready. Yes, sure. And then, I mean, The activity among customers, you have some substantial FSP orders last year, and I guess you have tenders out there. Is it something you expect to see this year as well? I didn't catch the question. Can you repeat that? No. I mean, you got this huge FSP order midyear last year, 2020. And I guess it's not going to it doesn't come every year, but I guess you have opportunities to get another one of those as well? I mean, Do you have any candidates that could sort of be effective this year also? Yes, of course, we're consistently chasing new business and stepping up our efforts to do so. Over time, I mean, it's the number of smaller orders that really make up sustainable long term growth. And as you said, those opportunities that we harvested last year in the form of a gigantic FSP contract. They don't come every year. That's absolutely true. There are FSP packages with Smaller turnover as well that we're consistently looking for. But you're right, the contract that we signed mid last year was, I think, the biggest one that's been signed in a number of years in the industry. It's not the normal. Okay. Thanks a lot. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Please go ahead, speakers. Okay. If there are no more questions, I'd Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for your interest, and welcome to join us for the next quarter. Thank you, everyone. Okay. Thank you.