Catena AB (publ) (STO:CATE)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Jul 7, 2023

Operator

Welcome to Catena Q2 report 2023. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode. During the questions and answer session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing star five on their telephone keypad. This call will be conducted by CEO Jörgen Eriksson, CFO Sofie Bennsten, and Chief Treasury Officer David Silvesjö. I will hand the conference over to CEO Jörgen Eriksson. Please go ahead.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Hi, everyone, and welcome to this report call. In today's presentation, we will start off by giving a short summary of the second quarter, followed by a short overview of our business. We will then proceed to the business update, where we will touch upon our current growth initiatives. Sofie and David will then guide you through the numbers in the financial update and sustainability. We will then end up with the Q&A. Next slide, please. Starting off with the summary of the half year period, we continue to report rental income growth driven by acquisitions, projects, and a stronger like-for-like numbers driven by our CPI-linked contracts. We received a confirmed credit rating of BBB- from Fitch Ratings, the first from one of the major rating firms. The rental income for the period is up 17%, the NOI is up 19%.

Income from property management per share is up 6%. We have a LTV of 36.7%. We have also a WALE of 5.3 years. Further, we announced during the second quarter, our biggest project yet, logistic position Ramlösa, with the tenant, Nowaste Logistics, signing an LOI for the entire space. All of this is in line with what we stated during last year with the equity raise. Lastly, after the quarter, we announced this week an acquisition of Bockasjö, for a logistic property development company, and I will go deeper into this later in the presentation. Please proceed to slide 6.

On a similar theme, as we saw in Q1 2023, we are going through a trying macro environment with decreasing consumer confidence impacting the majority of the segments, particularly challenging in the e-commerce sector, where the decrease in sales, both nominal and real, is impacting many players. While we are tracking bankruptcies and they are increasing, no material impact has been registered, which we can see in the segment as large. Having a strong customer base has been central to Catena's business and showcases its benefits through a resilience and growth potential. While the e-commerce as whole is facing a tough market, there are segments that players who are growing. Fashion and pharmacy is registering growth, and many of our customers are pre-leased for new space in order to match existing volumes and future growth.

We are seeing continued demand for new developments, and these are strong players who want to optimal long-term logistics setup in order to capture future growth. Here, energy, location, and automation is key for the customers. Therefore, we think that these players will end up in a stronger position when the market swings back. Once again, illustrating the importance of having the right type of customer. As mentioned before, all of this showcases the strategic importance of the logistic facilities. Long-term trends such as omni-commerce, circularity, and reshoring are pushing the demand for more space, and particularly in modern space in right location. As we progress, we will also see the entire logistics segment move past just leasing the facility itself. Future revenue streams will include, for example, electric charging stations of trucks, leasing of standardizes equipment such as shelves and automation.

Lastly, we are seeing more logistic space being completed this year and the next. While this volume is unprecedented, it doesn't keep up with the customer demand for the long term. Due to the more challenging regulatory environment with regards to zoning, there will be less land lost, particularly in the prime locations, and this will add the pricing power for existing facilities and lead to higher rents. Next slide, please. During the quarter, we acquired a land lot of 47,000 square meters in Gothenburg, which brings the portfolio to a total of 129 properties, with a contracted annual rent of about SEK 1.8 billion. Next slide, please. Having a look at our customer base, the ICA acquisition, which took effect in Q1, makes ICA our second biggest customer with regards to the contract value.

The top ten customers now stands for 45% of the contractual value. Next slide, please. Let's take a look at our initiatives for future growth. Next slide. About our current projects this quarter, we announced a new development of logistic position Ramlösa, with the customer Nowaste, which I dwell deeper into later. As mentioned in the previous quarter, we are hovering around 6.5% in yield on cost in the current projects. With newer projects, we will be aiming for 7%.... The total investment of all of our ongoing project is SEK 3.8 billion, and that will add about 325,000 square meters to our portfolio when all is finalized. Next slide, please. Now to the fantastic project at logistic position Ramlösa.

We mentioned during our equity raise in Q4, that we saw potential for new attractive projects going forward, that there is a demand for modern facilities in great locations. In line with that statement, I'm very happy to announce our latest, biggest project to date, made official during the quarter. In Helsingborg, we will build three new facilities totaling 75,000 square meters. Nowaste Logistics has signed an LOI for all of the space. This process we have done previously with the customer and feel comfortable going forward, starting the construction during the summer. Our partnership with fast-growing 3PL players stretches back many years, and it's a clear illustration how we grow together with our customers and assist them in their growth journey. Construction will start now, as I said, in the summer this year, and will be completed the latest in Q1, 2026.

I can also say that I assume that some of the buildings will be finalized a lot earlier than 2026. Next slide, please. With regards to our land bank, we have had some progresses in a couple of our processes, although we have to wait for some decisions to gain legal force. As mentioned before, we acquired a land lot in Gothenburg, which is sold and ready for a project whenever we have a case. Next slide, please. This week, we announced the exciting acquisition of Bockasjö AB, a leading logistic property developer. They have 1 of the most extensive track record in Sweden, having developed over 1 million sq m of logistic space in a variety of locations. This experience also extends to the network, having worked with some of the biggest customer in our segments.

We purchase Bockasjö through a right issue amounting of SEK 125 million, with deal finalizing in October. This is also the net effect of the transaction and the sum that will end up as a goodwill in our balance sheet. The rationale for the acquisition is to accelerate our initiatives on our land bank with new development and optimize our setup for growth within the area, both through pace and profitability. We do see a potential for higher yield on cost in future projects as a result of Bockasjö's strategy of running and procure projects. Next slide. Looking at our leasing operations, our letting ratio continues to be high, standing at 96.7, reflecting a strong demand for our segment.

It is a small decline compared to Q1, isolated. It's a due of some paddle players that have been struggling, that has resulted in some small vacancy changes, but nothing to worry about. It's on the margin. It has nothing to do with our pure logistics business. We also do have a confidence to fill up those vacancies quite rapidly. Now I would like to hand over to Sofie for sustainability and financial update. Next slide.

Sofie Bennsten
CFO and Deputy CEO, Catena

Next slide, please. Good morning, thank you, Jörgen, and good morning, everyone. We continue to work with certification of our property portfolio. At the end of the half year, we have 33% of our lettable area certified, and in pipeline for certification later this year is another 18 properties. Since Q2, we have almost doubled our self-produced solar energy. Now, during the warmer season, as the rain started to come, we continue to work with our better biodiversity goal, with several ongoing biodiversity projects in all our regions. We're going over to slide 17 for some financial updates. Slide 18. Thank you. Rental income for the period amounted to SEK 892 million, compared to SEK 760 million Q2 last year. This was driven primarily by indexation, acquisitions, and some projects being finalized.

The higher rental income increased our net operating surplus with 19% to SEK 723 million. The higher surplus ratio is explained primarily by us divesting 2 older facilities during 2022, while acquiring and completing more efficient facilities with lower property costs. Profit from property management rose 23% to SEK 583 million, compared to SEK 474 Q2 last year. Impacting to profit from property management is the effect from associated company, Foodhills Fastighet AB, with SEK 35 million, due to change in value for the completed project for HelloFresh in Bjuv. Next slide, please. The rental development for the half year has been positively impacted by our CPI link contract that came to effect by start of the year.

Acquisitions contributed with SEK 49 million, divestments made a negative contribution of SEK 20 million, and within projects, the main contributors were the completion of the PostNord facility at Bunkagården, and the Nowaste Logistics facility at Planterhuset, both here in Helsingborg. Now handing over to David, some comments on financing. Next slide.

David Silvesjö
Chief Treasury Officer, Catena

Thank you, Sofie, and good morning to everyone. On balance day, we report an equity ratio of 52.2%, which is well above our minimum target of 40% and offers a flexible way of progress from here. The underlying macroeconomic prospects still screens some uncertainty, which is no surprise to anyone, specifically with regards to difficulties assessing interest rate peaks to combat inflation versus potential downturn impact on economic activities. In the quarter, Fitch Ratings published a long-term issue rating of BBB- with stable outlook, and Nordic Credit Rating confirmed their BBB- with a positive outlook. Both signals are a strong financial profile, along with benign operating fundamentals and our market-leading position. Next slide, please. In line with our strategy, we keep a safe distance to our financial policy targets.

With market interest rates, higher average cost of debt increased to 3.5% on balance date, compared to 3.4% from last quarter. Net debt to EBITDA was reported at 7.9 times, whereas run rate was reported at 7.6 times. Combined with a low leverage of 36.7% and a secured loan to value of 32%, we have ample headroom to our targets and covenants, and expect to be able to capitalize on further opportunities from here. Next slide, please. In the quarter, we have refinanced about SEK 1.6 billion of bank debt, with debt maturities ranging from 3-4 years. Credit margins are still attractive and moves out only marginally. We have signed and borrowed SEK 130 million through the Danish mortgage system with a 15-year commitment at very attractive levels.

Average debt maturity is 4.2 years. After the quarter, we have also signed a new loan agreement with the Nordic Investment Bank of SEK 430 million with an 8-year duration, which also adds to our sources of funds and further extends maturity. Over the next 12 months, about SEK 1.3 billion of debt is about to mature, including committed investments, we have good control over liquidity. On balance day, liquid funds amounted to SEK 3.1 billion. We continue to assess different strategies, including the bond market, for now, it still screens unattractive spreads. Next slide, please. Our interest maturity structure implies we have currently 68% of total debt hedged, with an average term of almost 3 years. Our derivatives portfolio and fixed interest loans combined have an average term of about 5 years.

Market rates could move out another 1 percentage point from here. We would still be able to keep interest coverage ratio comfortably over 3.5 times. Thanks, and back to you, Sofie.

Sofie Bennsten
CFO and Deputy CEO, Catena

Thank you very much, David Silvesjö. Next slide, please. During Q2, we acquired a small piece of land in the north of Gothenburg of SEK 42 million that added to acquisitions in Q1 of 28 assets, 1 Danish property, and the land at Stigamo in Jönköping. A total investment in acquisition so far, SEK 1.1 billion. Divestments during Q1 of 1 small property, it came to SEK 9 million, and our development CapEx ended almost at SEK 1 billion. These investments are mainly related to our large ongoing project with Elgiganten in Jönköping, with NEGO in Landvetter, and with Lekia in Malmö. Going to the next slide, please.

With regard to our property valuation, we registered write-downs of SEK 558 million in the first half year, driven by higher yield requirements during Q1 and the stabilization of the yield during the second quarter, where we also added some successful projects. The average weighted valuation yield for the portfolio of 5.6 by the end of the period, same as Q1, the EPRA net initial yield came to 5.3%. Moving to slide 26 and some closing remarks from Jörgen.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Thank you, Sofie. The takeaway from Catena's Q2 can be summed up into two points. The first is that Catena has strong fundamentals. Our unique land bank present us with attractive opportunities, which together with our financial profile, make sure we have the means to realize them. Lastly, with the logistic position Ramlösa, our biggest project to date- We have a best-in-class pipeline of quality assets being constructed. This will add great value in the coming years. With that said, I would like to open up for questions.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial star five again on your telephone keypad.

The next question comes from John Vong from Kempen. Please go ahead.

John Vong
Analyst, Van Lanschot Kempen

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. On the Bockasjö acquisition, you mentioned that the net effect is SEK 125 million paid, which is related to the equity that you're raising. From the press release, I was under the impression that you paid roughly SEK 160 million. Could you highlight how, what exactly the difference here is?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Yeah.

John Vong
Analyst, Van Lanschot Kempen

Does this relate to the cash inflows from the assets that's going to be sold?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Yeah. Good morning, John. Good question. I mean, in the press release, we mentioned the digits that we have to pay because there is a major part of equity in the company. The net effect from it is the SEK 125, so to speak.

John Vong
Analyst, Van Lanschot Kempen

This doesn't necessarily relate to the cash in that you're still getting on the 3 projects, that's still to be sold?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

The three projects that are in the company, they will be sold, but that will not impact our result, and we do not pay for them, so to speak.

John Vong
Analyst, Van Lanschot Kempen

Okay, that's clear. Thank you. On the synergies, you mentioned that you expect to be developing a bit more profitable. Does this mean that you are also looking towards higher yield on cost? What target would it be with this acquisition?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

It's too early to say, but we do see a clear synergies, and we also can see from their track record and how they procure and how they handle the projects without going to the big entrepreneur and construction companies, makes a very good possibilities for us to also save some money, and by that, reporting higher yield on cost. Too early for us to mention any digits.

John Vong
Analyst, Van Lanschot Kempen

Okay, that's clear. Thank you. On the capacity growth, what run rate would be feasible after the acquisition?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

It's also too early to mention. Of course, there is some ongoing projects that the team from Bockasjö will and have to handle during the first period. Then it depends a lot on what dialogues we have on the table right now with existing and potential customers, and how the process is in terms of some of the zoning plan processes when they will be finalized, and they will gain legal force. I can just on generally speaking, say that we will not decrease the tempo.

John Vong
Analyst, Van Lanschot Kempen

Okay, that's clear. Does it change anything in terms of your philosophy with regards to the pre-let ratio you want to achieve on developments?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Not as we speak.

John Vong
Analyst, Van Lanschot Kempen

Okay, that's clear. Thank you. That's it from my side.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Thank you, John.

Operator

The next question comes from Fredrik Cyon from Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

Good morning. Yes, thanks for the presentation. Starting off with value changes in the quarter, it was positive SEK 152 million. Can you give us some breakdown on it? You mentioned that it's partly driven by rent. Is there also a component of projects gains to the net number?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Yeah, there are some finalized projects that have been impacted for that uplift. We have seen in some valuations that there are some different thinking about the market rent going forward, some have made some changes in some of our property values. It's a mix-up about those two things.

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

That's clear. Moving over to acquisitions. First half, you did about SEK 1.1 billion, and you're mentioning the new target in terms of new projects, about 7%. Would that entail that new acquisitions will have to be done at even higher levels than 7% for you to be interested?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

In a theory, that's correct. There could be other things that we're taking into account about strategy, what kind of customer it is. Is it an existing customer at a very good location? We can consider lower yields than 7%. You're thinking right. The most likable scenario is that we will focus on own developments, on our own land bank, where we can have a fantastic deal on cost.

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

In the transaction market, are you seeing more distressed sellers whereby, you know, 6.5% is a tangible and a realistic assumption on net initial yield on acquisitions?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

... Nope, not in our segment. We do not see any distressed players. On the contrary, we have seen a lot of transactions made actually the last month. You saw the Bockasjö disposed to NREP, and we also saw Platzer acquired from Bockasjö in Gothenburg. That confirms that the yields are actually below 5% as we speak for prime.

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

Thanks. moving over to Bockasjö acquisition. You're mentioning that part of the reason is that you're seeing procurement potential. I guess you have done a full DD on the company, you know it fairly well from the past, but when you go through and compare your own projects with their, what kind of cost difference do you see? Is it 10% lower on, in the project stage, or what kind of amplitude is it?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

I will just, generally speaking, say that in a normal case, we go with a general contractor, right?

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

Mm-hmm.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Bocka is not doing that way. I would say that the general contractor and Bocka is as good to procure from the subcontractors. You can also know, you know yourself, what is the percentage that the general contractor puts on the bill to us. Then you take that one and take off some SEK millions for the Bocka team, and then you have the result.

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

That's clear. Final question on leasing activity. When I look at the short moving in, moving out, it looks as activity has been rather slow. Why do you think that is the case? Is it a temporary nature? Is it economical slowdown impacting, yeah, activity in general?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

How do you mean that we have a bit lower vacancy, higher vacancy?

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

No, no, I just looked at the net leasing chart you showed with moving in, moving out.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Yeah.

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

those charts, it's quite minuscule.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Yeah

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

... versus a normal year.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Yeah, I think it's more temporarily, but, of course, there is. I don't think that it's highest on the agenda in a lot of boardrooms to see if they should move out or move into a new other facility. There are other matters to focus on this period. I think that there will be more activity going forward and, but if it's during Q3, Q4, or we have to wait and see to 2024, that's unknown.

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

Yeah, we look forward to that.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Thank you.

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

My final question, I have one more for you. It looks like, what I'm hearing from external values is that they assume about CPI impact moving into 2024 of about 6%. Is that kind of similar to what you have in your model? Do you think you can actually pass that on to tenants as successfully as you have so far in 2023?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Yeah. First of all, we have a 50% lower, with that said, 4% in our models. Whether it will be 6 or not, we have to wait and see. We also have to wait and see what the dialogues with the customer will turn out when we are there in October, November. I think we will not foresee any discussions.

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

Okay, those were more questions.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Thank you.

Fredrik Cyon
Analyst, Carnegie

Thank you.

Operator

Please state your name and company. Please go ahead.

Paul May
Analyst, Barclays

Hi there, it's Paul May from Barclays. Just a couple of questions quickly from me. You mentioned, obviously, a couple of new step facilities that you've signed. Are you able to give the all-in cost on those just to get a sense? Obviously, given most recent moves in sort rates, I imagine if you were refinancing today, that would be higher. If you could give some indication as what you think your all-in cost of debt cost at the moment.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Thank you, Paul David there. Well, there's a lot of factors, obviously, impacting the cost of debt. Let's say you start by looking at this time, or which is close to 4%, and then add a margin of somewhere between 1.3 and up to 1.8, then you have the initial cost. But usually, we hedge at least 60%, and a 5-year hedge today is around 3%. I think you could look at the 3% swap, plus a margin of 1.3-1.8.

Paul May
Analyst, Barclays

Okay. I think swap rates have moved to 3.5% now, just in the last couple of days.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Yeah

Paul May
Analyst, Barclays

... to answer the question. Yeah, fun times indeed. On the net leasing, just coming back on that, you mentioned a couple of tenants faced difficulties and vacated. Was that a result of higher rents post the CPI change, or was it just poor business models and having to vacate? Just to get a sense as to what are the drivers behind those vacates would be great.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Of course, I tried to give that message, but I tried to explain it again. We have had in some of the vacancy historically, logistics space. We had some paddle tennis players who want to rent this surface. It was a hype around paddle tennis during the pandemic. They paid very good. We signed agreements. After the pandemic, they are struggling. There was an oversupply of paddle tennis courts. Now they are facing a very poor business model. That's temporary, has nothing to do with our core business. We cannot see any signals from the logistics players. Of course, they are struggling, but not, they are not distressed, and they are not going bankrupt. This is just on the margin. Nothing to do with our core business.

Paul May
Analyst, Barclays

You're confident of leasing those spaces out at higher levels?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Yeah.

Paul May
Analyst, Barclays

At similar levels to what the.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Similar, levels, give or take.

Paul May
Analyst, Barclays

Okay, cool. Then just quickly on the, notice the earnings capacity, slight decline on the higher financing costs quarter-on-quarter, offsetting your higher rent. Just a couple of things on this. Do you expect to offset that through rental growth, moving forward, or is there a period of time where you would expect earnings to come under pressure from higher financing costs, given timing of developments and so on?

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

It's difficult to foresee how much the interest rates will increase and what will be the result of the CPI indexation for next year. In the earnings capacity, we do not have any assumption of indexation. Assuming 4% or 6% on the top line, excluded the re-invoiced energy, I think you can do your own models in that one.

David Silvesjö
Chief Treasury Officer, Catena

Yeah, just adding to that, I mean, obviously, as you mentioned, there's a bit of timing here. We do know that interest rate costs will move up. We are financing a lot of developments right now, when we also know that, you know, revenues will be raised quite dramatically over the next 2 years. There's a timing issue when looking at the earnings capacity.

Paul May
Analyst, Barclays

Just one on, is there a reason why you exclude your profit from associates in the earnings capacity versus the income from property management? Just wondering if there's some reason like this as to why you include it in one and not in the other.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

This one to, for this quarter was a one-off because we made an uplift in the valuation in this joint venture.

Paul May
Analyst, Barclays

Okay, pretty. Cool. Thank you.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Yeah, thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Markus Henriksson, from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead. Please state your name and company. Please go ahead. There are no more questions at this time. I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Jörgen Eriksson
CEO, Catena

Well, thank you very much for participating in this earnings call. From the Catena team, we want to wish you all a fantastic summer, see you again after this break. Thank you, goodbye.

Sofie Bennsten
CFO and Deputy CEO, Catena

Thank you. Goodbye, everyone.

David Silvesjö
Chief Treasury Officer, Catena

Thank you, everyone.

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