Earnings Call: Q1 2021

Apr 30, 2021

Yes. Good morning, all of you, and welcome to our earnings call for the Q1 'twenty one. We take Page number 2. It's me, Tor the new Wamsen CEO that runs the presentation. And with me, I have my CFO, Daniel Ekstrand. We take the next picture, Page 3, And we go straight into Page number 4. The highlights of the Q1 was that we met Our forecast, we had net sales of SEK 31,000,000 in the lower end of the forecast. But the most important thing is that the first this is the Q1 in the pandemic where the aftermarket sales has been in the correlation with the underlying demand. It means that we are rid of the inventory effects we have had the last 2 or 3 quarters. We take the next page, Page 5. If we compare to the Q1 'twenty, which still was a quarter before the pandemic, we have lost more than half of our sales. Even though we have managed to have a positive EBIT, That is due to, 1st of all, a very good mix with a lot of aftermarket sales, but also we have had some headwinds with the currency. Compared to last year, anyhow, the headwinds from currency has been less because last year we had a very strong U. S. Dollar. I think it was about SEK 9.50. What is a little bit negative is that the cash flow was low, minus SEK7 1,000,000, That is due to a late payment from a very big VIP customers we have. That was planned for the Q1, but the payment actually came in April. If we would have had that payment at plants, the cash flow would have been around 0. We take the next page, Page 6. If we look at the sales mix, as we said, the aftermarket was very strong this quarter, But it's also an effect that the OEM was very weak. The OEM was at a very low I think It's many years since we had such low OEM sales. We take the next page, Page 7. Here we have the net sales bridge. And if we compare again to the strong Q1 of 'twenty, As you can see, we have lost about SEK 30,000,000 on the OEM sales. And that is, first of all, due to the lower aircraft production at both Airbus and Boeing. As you know, Boeing is down to 5 aircraft a month. I think a year ago, they built about 13 aircraft a month. But we have had an extra effect because Boeing and Airbus have pushed orders from the Q1 into the 2nd and third quarter. By Boeing, it's mainly due to that they have closed the assembly line of 787 in Seattle and concentrate all the assembly of 787 in South Carolina. That has pushed our orders into the second and third quarter instead. The aftermarket have decreased with 30%. And of course, that is driven by a lower usage of the 787 and A350 aircraft. But as we said, now the aftermarket is at the same level as it should be based on the flight hours that especially 787, but also A350 flies. So now we have an aftermarket sales that is in line what you should expect. We take the next page, that is Page number 8. If we look at the profit, it has fallen to around 0. And mainly, it's, of course, because the lower volume, we have dropped, as we said, more than 50 We have had some compensation that the mixture has been more off the market than OEMs. As we said, the currency, it was a very good quarter last year for currency. This was also a good quarter for us regarding accounts receivable and accounts payable, but the U. S. Dollar has been about SEK 1 lower this quarter compared to last year. This is partly offset by the cost savings we have. We have a cost saving program. So this quarter Compared to last year's quarter, we have saved about SEK6 1,000,000. So we came out with a small EBIT profit. We take the next page, Page number 9. As I said before, the cash flow would have been in balance if this big U. S. VIP customer would have paid as planned. So I'm very sorry about that, but I can tell you this payment came in April. Otherwise, the cash flow is relatively balance the EBITDA, give us some contribution. We have paid some taxes and we have made some investments. But to strengthen our financial, we have called up SEK 30,000,000 of our loans. So we have increased the cash with about SEK 30 1,000,000 in January this quarter. We take the next page, Page 10. The order intake has increased now. I think it's the 3rd quarter in a row where we have an increased order intake, and I think this is most related to the aftermarket sales, which is growing from quarter to quarter. This quarter, it has even managed to increase our backlog. So the backlog is higher now than it was in the beginning of the quarter. It will take some time before we come up to higher backlogs totally compared to what we had before because the backlog we had before that was very high was really dependent on OEMs and the OEMs, especially Boeing, ordered for about a year or at least 9 months production. And because they are down to much lower production volumes and they are a little bit more careful by putting purchase orders. We have problem to come up to those big numbers. So now the backlog is more related to aftermarket. We take the next page, Page 11. If we look at the rolling 4th quarter, it means we take Page 12 immediately. Now we have managed 4 quarter in the pandemic. And as you can see, we have lost more than half of our sales, but we still have a profit of SEK12 1,000,000. It means an EBIT margin of 8%. So I'm a little bit proud that we have managed to keep profitable even though we have lost more than half of our sales. This is an indication that we manage the company correct, but it's also an indication of the strength in our business model. We have a very strong aftermarket that give us a lot of income and profit as the aircraft is flying. What is on the downside is, of course, the cash flow. It has been negative, but you can explain that with some precaution of the inventory, but mainly that we have continued to invest in future products. We have invested a lot in the 777X, but especially also in the private jet area where we think we have possibilities to grow. We take the next page, Page 13. If you look at the net sales bridge, as you can see, we have the drop and it's mainly due to the OEM that we have lost about SEK 100,000,000 in OEM sale compared to the 4th quarters before. VIP and retrofit has been relatively unaffected by the crisis. But in the aftermarket, we have also lost about SEK 85,000,000. And if you look a little bit for the future, the aftermarket is something that will recover quickly. I used to say the only thing we need is that our 787 and the A350 start to fly again as they did before the pandemic, then the aftermarket sales is back. So here, we really have a potential to relatively quickly, depending on vaccination, depending on the development of the pandemic to get those almost 100,000,000 in sales back again, and that's SEK100 1,000,000 that creates a lot of profit. It is a longer term project to bring back OEM to the levels we have before the pandemic because it's more or less dependent on how quickly Airbus and Boeing goes back to production in the line of what they produced during 'nineteen. But we have a lot of potential to relatively quickly recover in the aftermarket. We take the next picture, that is picture number 14 and we go straight into the outlook and go to 15. If we look at the Q2, I expect sales that will be between 3540. And that means that we after 3 or 4 quarter in a row with lower sales, I think now or I expect now that we will increase sales again. And that is mainly driven by that the OEM, it was a very weak OEM and the Q2 will be normal again to these low levels that they produce, but we will deliver to the levels that Airbus and Boeing produce. And I also expect some increase in the private jet projects. So our expectation for the next quarter is sales between 3540, and I'm very glad because I think the worst quarter we have now behind us. We take the next page, Page number 16. And I'm a little bit optimistic regarding and the proof is those two graphs. I used to say in those earnings calls that we have the perspective in Sweden, what we see in Europe. And if you see at the left picture, you can see the number of flights that is flown in different part of the world. And there you can see that Europe is in the bottom. So we really Think about aerospace as we see it in Europe, you hardly don't see any aircraft in the sky. But this is not the case in the rest of the world. As you can see, In China, they are the aircraft is flying almost to 85%, 90% of what they did fly before the pandemic. The aircraft is perhaps not fully loaded, but it's a lot of aircraft flying, and that's the same now in North America and so on. And for CTT, it is not so important the load factor for the airlines. They always talk about the load factor, but for us, It is flight hours that is important. So in the rest of the world, it looks better than it looks in Europe. And the right picture, that is a measurement on the amount of passenger that flies in the United States every day. And you can see they were up before the pandemic to around 2,300,000 passenger per day, and they were down in the beginning of the pandemic to about 100,000 passenger a day, a huge drop. But as you can see, During the fall and now after New Year, it is increasing and now they are up to flying about 1,400,000 passenger per day in the United States. And if you look at what has happened between January March, You clearly see the effect of the vaccination in the United States. I saw in the news that now about half of the population in U. S. Is vaccinated with the 1st shot. So in U. S, the vaccination has already started to drive aircraft traffic back again. We take the next picture, and that is picture number 17. Again, for CTT, it's good that the aircraft traffic come back. And of course, the airlines start to get out of the crisis if the aircraft is flying and the population is flying. But for CTT, of course, the long distance travel is the important thing, and especially the amount of flight hours that 787 and the A350 are flying. If you look at the graph, You have the flight, the total amount of flight hours that the 787 fleet did fly before the pandemic, Then we had the drop. But gradually, with a little bit of a bad situation during New Year with the 2nd wave and so on, the 787 flight hours continued to increase. And we are now up to 60%, 70% of the flight hours that the fleet was flying before the pandemic. And that reflects relatively good the aftermarket sales we had now in the Q1. I expect that the 787 will be up and flying 100% long before the long distance travel is back in the world to the levels before the pandemic because the 787 is now the most popular long distance aircraft. It is an aircraft that can fly all the routes, but it don't need so many passenger to be profitable. So we are again very, very lucky that our main project is 787. We also have an effect that 787 is small enough to be used also domestically. There is a lot of 787 that flies domestically in U. S. And in China and on shorter routes in Asia. So we could be lucky to be on the 787. We take the next picture and that's generally the market drivers, you have Seen this before, but the pandemic has not only been yes, Daniel tells me now I should Say that you should look into Page number 18. I did forget that again. Anyhow, the market drivers that has come out of the COVID-nineteen is for our humidifier market. It is more and more discussion about the air quality in flight and the confidence to travel to safety. So there had never been more focus on the air quality in aircraft than it is now. And this is in the long term, of course, a positive thing for CTT with our humidifiers, and we are working also to try to improve also the air quality with those oil and VOCs or what we are working for. On the other side, we have the dehumidifier market. Of course, the big driver for us there is sustainability. And the sustainability, we have some extra pressure now due to the pandemic because the Governments in many countries has bailed out the airlines that otherwise would have gone bankrupt. So I think they have a lot of pressure on the airlines now to be more sustainable for the future. We take the next page and it's Page number 19. If we look into our big segment that is OEM sales, We are dependent for the moment of 4 big programs. On the 787, Generally, as we said, the Q1 was very weak, but we will go back to normal conditions in the second quarter and the second half of this year. And we expect that on the OEM side, We will have about the same sales in the second half of 'twenty one as we had in the second half of 'twenty. And that we are only talking about OEM. How is it then looking at 787? The production rate now is down to 5 aircraft per month. As I said, the Q1 was special because they stopped the production in Seattle. But Boeing will not increase production level before 2023. But I think in the beginning of 2023, we have a good possibility that they will increase production because of the popularity of the 787. If you look at 787, We are dependent on the production rate by Boeing because all Penetration on this platform is very good. We cannot have a better penetration. The only possibility for us to increase sales on the 787, except from the higher production volumes, is that we will get more content on the 787. We are working hard on getting cabin humidification into this aircraft. It would be logical because you have cabin humidification on the A50, you have it on the 777X. So I think sooner or later, Boeing has to offer cabin humidification also on the 787. If we look at the A350, the problem we had in the Q1 was that Airbus and also Honeywell, which is a 1st tier supplier for this system, they were downsizing the inventory. So we had hardly no deliveries on the A350 in the Q1. But the inventory cannot go much lower. So we think we will go back to normal production levels on the 350, which reflect then the selection rate and the production rate that Airbus have. Here is Penetration the key. To increase sales on the 350, 1st of all, if Airbus build more aircraft per month, but if we can get more airlines to select the options. We cannot expect that we will get more on the 350 because we have already cockpit crew rest and cabin humidification and drying. If we look at 777X, It's negative that aircraft is pushed into 'twenty three. We enter into service. It's logical in this situation. First of all, I think Boeing has a little bit issues with the certification of the aircraft. I think FAA, after The disaster with the MAX aircraft is looking very carefully before they certify this aircraft. But also the 777X is for those condition in the world perhaps too big. It's better for the airlines to fly the 787 than the 777X. So for me, it's logical that Boeing are pushing the 777X a little bit. Boeing will anyhow build the 777X. They are planning to build about 2 aircraft per month, and we have also orders for 2 aircraft per month. It's a little bit tricky now because the certification is delayed, so in which condition we will deliver, but we have orders on the 777X. So for us to increase sales on the 777X, we cannot increase the content. We have Cabin humidification, we have cockpit and crew rest, which we what the drivers here will be that we get more penetration, more customers selecting the options and of course, that Boeing ramp up this aircraft program. Realistically, Some years ahead, perhaps 5 or 6 years, I think Airbus will or Boeing will build 777X in the rate of 7 or 8 or perhaps 9 aircraft a month. So it's a lot of potential in this program, but it will take some time. EMC-twenty one is the Russian aircraft. It's the same size as the A320 and the 737. Here we have our cockpit humidifier as a basic product. It means that it is installed in every aircraft. We have started with some serial deliveries to a very low level, but I think they will Kick start to bring the volumes or the rate up during end of 'twenty one and 'twenty two. Of course, here, if we should get growth, it's based on how they ramp this aircraft. I think they will go up to perhaps 7 or 8 aircraft a month and then it would be substantial deliveries from CTT. And here, because it's a Russian aircraft that is mainly sold to the Russian market, at least in the beginning, We absolutely have a potential in the future to get the drying system into this aircraft. Hobirya, for example, is flying, which is a big domestic carrier in Russia, is flying our drying system on the 737 fleet and Russia is really a country which would benefit a lot from our driving system. So we have not given up. We will try to increase the content on this program. So as a summary, even though OEM sales this quarter was very weak, we have a lot of potential in the OEM sales. Of course, it takes some time now before the especially Airbus and Boeing gear up the production again. We take the next page, and that is Page number 20. If we look at the retrofit business, Of course, it's difficult to sell to someone that don't have any money. So by the airlines, I think we need some more recovery. It's very promising that we have a recovery by the airlines in the United States. As soon as We are allowed to fly more in Europe. The European airlines that fly especially domestic or in Europe will be more healthy. We have an interest for cabin humidification by a couple of airlines in the world. And of course, this discussion about air quality we have discussed, the humidity is increasing thanks to the pandemic. So we have prospects. We have also a couple of quotations out for The drying system, we have airlines that has taken drying system to a big part of their fleets already and they are interesting to put in the drying system also in new aircraft in their fleet. So It's not dead. And we have the Boeing MAX is starting to fly again And we have an agreement with Sandeck Strestan in Turkey to develop the system for the 737 MAX and making STCE for it. We expect that this work can start up in the second half of this year. And the 737 MAX is a very interesting aircraft for our drying system. We have a lot of system out on the classic 737 and many airlines that are flying 737 With our drying system, we'll take MAX, so there we have opportunities. We take the next Picture, and that is Page number 21. The most promising segment for the moment is really the private jet. As you know, Airbus is promoting now humidification more than than ever have done. We have on the A320 aircraft Airbus Corporate Jet. We have cooperation with Airbus. They have really started to market the system. We have optimized the system for this aircraft type to make the humidification more even compared to the system we have delivered so far. So there, I think it's a Big importance that Airbus is so true humidification incorporated. The second picture is the Global 7,500. We have developed the system. It's a big part of our efforts during 2020. The first system is now installed in the aircraft. It has been tested in rigs at The completion center, it's called Flying Colors. It has been in cooperation with the aircraft manufacturer Bombardier. They will start to test the system in the aircraft now in May, and we expect it to fly during the summer, perhaps in June, perhaps in July, and it will enter into service in the second half of 'twenty one. This is really a milestone for CTT. You know I have been with CTT for many years and I have been on many exhibitions And I have seen those very nice business yet, Skalstream and Bombardier. And we have always discussed, Peter and I, When will we make break into the business yet? We have tried 10 years ago, it did not work, but this time we do it. And humidification in these segments get more and more popular. If we look at Page number the 3rd picture here. That is the Airbus A220. This is the aircraft that Airbus took over from Bombardier. Bombardier didn't manage to market that aircraft as a passenger aircraft for the world. So Airbus 'twenty. And this aircraft is a little bit smaller than the A320, but it's bigger when the business hits from Bombardier or Gulfstream. And Airbus has, of course, they sell a lot of these to airlines, but they have also promoted this as a business yet. They call it the ACJ 220. Here again, the boss of the Airbus Corporate Jet at Airbus has confirmed that he want this aircraft to have humidification. So they are now specifying a humidification system, and we expect that they will select a vendor now before end of the summer. So of course, we are hoping very much on that program as we are cooperating a lot with Airbus on the A320 for the moment. So on the midterm, Here, we really have growth opportunities. The VIP aircraft we have delivered before, we would be happy if we deliver 7 or 8 a year. If when or if we get into the business yet, we have the possibility to deliver to perhaps 100 aircraft a year. It's a big difference in the market size on business yet compared to the bigger VIPs. We are very successful on the big VIPs. If we get the same success in business yet, It will be the big thing for CTT. We take the next page, and that is Page 22. And here you can see the future projects for us. And now you have the chance to ask me questions. Thank you. 1. We have a question from the line of Karl Buchriest from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning, Torbjorn. Good morning, Daniel. My first question is on the 787 program. I think Last quarterly report, you mentioned that there were some, let's call them, pent up deliveries that could help 787 deliveries during 2021 above the, let's call it, the production rates that we are seeing. I was just a bit Curious, maybe you mentioned it, but what your thoughts are on the 787 deliveries for the year? Yes, in my presentation, I have talked about what we will deliver to the production line of 787. But you are right, During a big part of 2020, Boeing did not deliver any 787. They had some production problem and some technical issues, which was had to be fixed. But they started to deliver 787 in March again. So now they are back to deliver. So if we look at our installed base or the actual potential in the aftermarket will grow quicker during 'twenty one than they are producing aircraft. Boeing will deliver more 787 than they produce during 'twenty one. I think perhaps they will deliver over 100 or even more aircraft '21 because it delivers a few 'twenty. And that will, of course, help our growth in the aftermarket from 'twenty two and onwards. Understood. And then perhaps if you could just go a bit more into detail into the dynamics In the report where you mentioned the kind of, let's call it, discrepancy between what you're seeing on the aftermarket side for your Population of humidifiers compared to your own sales progression. You mentioned earlier there was a discrepancy in the past quarters and now you highlight the kind of €10,000,000 to €15,000,000 in quarterly annual revenue potential if things normalize. Just wanted to Touch upon that comment. Is this if the entire population is back to flying on 2019 levels? Or is it a revenue potentially if you, let's go ahead, catch up to inventory adjustments and those sorts of things? I think we said in the last earnings calls that in the aftermarket during The 3rd Q4 of 2020, we did sell less consumables compared to the flight hours that especially 787 were flying. So we said the recovery in our aftermarket sale will go in 2 steps. The first step is that we start to sell to the underlying demand. It means that our partners and the airlines would not reduce their inventory anymore. And this has already happened in this Q1. Now the Q1 sales is in balance average to the flight hours that the 787 is flying. The potential then of SEK 10,000,000 to SEK 15 1,000,000 more per quarter in aftermarket sales is calculated on the basis that the 787 7 will fly the same amount of flight hours as they did fly during 'nineteen. So as you know, During 'twenty, they have not delivered too many 787s out there. So if the fleet we have out there start to fly Normally, it means more or less 100%, then we have EUR 10,000,000 to EUR 15,000,000 more in aftermarket sales. Then on top of that all, every year that we Boeing delivers 787, This aftermarket will increase. But then, so to say, we are back again on the track we had up to the pandemic. Did you understand it? Yes, understood. But that first component there, when you say that you're selling to the underlying demand, Do you still think that you will have a catch up effect of the ad dynamics you saw in Q3 and Q4 that could Mean that you deliver sales above the underlying demand for the coming quarters? I don't generally, I don't believe that. Of course, we can never control Our big partners, it's Boeing on one side and Satera on the other side. We have not 100% control on their inventory. So if they have an inventory for the moment that is lower than they want to have at a certain rate, then we can have some more sales compared to the underlying demand. But our projection is now following the underlying demand. And as you see on the graph of the 787, the flight hours on the 787 is now increasing, especially during March. And if this increase continues, our aftermarket sales will continue to grow. So my projection is that we follow now in the aftermarket sales, the underlying demand. And then historically, we have always had a quarter which ramp up and the quarter that is a little bit lower. But principally, now we go after the underlying demand, the big catch up we had actually in the Q1. Understand. I have a few more questions, but I'll get back in line first. Thank you. Our next question is a follow-up question from Karl Buchtiss from ABD Sundal Collier. So on the VIP side then, this is something we've been hearing from you A bit more about lately, but and you touched upon the kind of market size here. But has this Changed at all compared to your previous assessment in terms of number of jets and the split between The likes of Airbus and Bombardier and Gulfstream, for example? No. I think it has not changed. What has happened in this segment, and it happens every quarter, of course, the projects we are working on, the A320, It's one more quarter. We are waiting for the first order for the new system we have developed together with Airbus On the Global 7,500, I'm very happy that we have stored the system in the aircraft. The tricky thing to go from a little bit bigger aircraft into a smaller aircraft is the installation, to find the room and space for our equipment and we have done it. The system is in the aircraft. And now I really look forward to the flight of this aircraft. It would be the first time a business yet has a decent humidification system in it. So for us, from a marketing point of view, to sell the first system, The first new system to A320 is happening, but it's a very big happening when CTT have a system that is flying on the business yet. And then we have a good chance to get more orders and get more interest from Bombardier and Carl Stream on business yet. And on top of that, we have the ACT220. I sometimes forget it because It's so close to we are working so close with Airbus, so that one will come also. Yes. But let's say that The project you are developing on the 320 that actually materializes into commercial deliveries. Now you have deliveries on the Bombardier and the 220 is specified with the humidification systems. And just my first question maybe is, Has the competitive dynamics changed at all? Are you seeing any other players on the market now? Or If we assume that, okay, this will be specified, then we have 3 models that could with a high likelihood be CTG systems. Just for a reminder, out of a kind of 100 annual fleet deliveries, These 3 models, would they amount to 40 or 60 aircraft? Forgive me if I don't remember. Now those 100, we are talking about the Global Express to Gulfstream and the ACT220. The 320 is a VIP. So there, I think the market in the VIP is the same as We have had the last 10 years, more or less. Big VIPs is generally not growing. The growth we can get there and we expect, thanks to Airbus, is that Airbus will promote our system much more in the future. And we should not forget that the big part of that VIP segment was the Boeing 737 MAX. And of course, Boeing has not sold any MAX for the 2 years when the aircraft has been grounded. So there we have also potential. But the big volume is really in the business yet and that has not changed. And I don't know of any competition. Libre did make a humidifier for the old Global Express and that was not good. And Bombardier did not select it. So I don't fear any competition from Liebe in the business yet segment. And I don't know of anyone else that makes humidifier. And it's hard to compete with CTT with. We have both Airbus and Boeing on long range aircraft. No one else is in there. We have Airbus and Boeing VIP aircraft. We have made a great job. So how should you compete With CTT in business yet, the only question mark we had 10 years ago, is it possible to design a system that fit into those smaller aircrafts. And with the Global 7,500, we have proved that The system is in the aircraft and I expect now after the summer that they will say the system performs as specified. Then we have showed the world that CTT can make humidification system also for a business yet, and then we open up this market. So here, we really have a potential for growth in private jet. Understood. My final one is just on the Sales model, if that has changed at all and how you divide the work With your main partner Collins or formerly Rockwell Collins or Collins Aerospace. But when it comes to Marketing efforts towards the OEMs, but maybe more importantly towards the airliners, how you do that Today in a COVID environment and whether or not you've changed the sales model compared to A few years ago. Just in order to understand how you aim to potentially increase the penetration on the other aircraft models outside of a 787? I think if you look at the sales perspective, of course, the pandemic is not good for the sales. I have myself not been traveling since February last year. So I have not met Airbus and Boeing personally. But of course, We work with Teams meeting and so on. So you can do if you have the contacts before as we have with Airbus and Boeing, It's okay to work in sales in this situation. But of course, Airbus and Boeing has been defensive now during the pandemic. They have to get everything straightened out themselves. Regarding the airline, of course, it's more difficult to meet with new airlines in this situation, but it has not been that important because the airline this last year have had other problems than to buy new systems. Where we are very careful is that the airlines that have selected A350 and 777X primarily that we contact them and promote our options because that is something they have to do even if it's pandemic, they have to decide how their future 350 and 777X should be configured. So there we are working and we have not changed anything. We have the support of Collins, which also has problem with the pandemic, but we work in the same way as we did before. What is negative for us is, of course, we have had no exhibition in the aerospace. We had before the aircraft interior, where we were displaying our system together with Collins. That was a very good very big and important opportunity for us to meet with airlines. We did not have it in 2020 in April, and We did not have it 'twenty one either. Hopefully, we have that exhibition in the fall or latest in April next year. That is important when we should sell to the airlines. But where we have concentrated is OEM. We manage our OEMs and we have made a great progress into private jets during this year. But on the airline side, of course, we have been we have not been able to promote our systems that good as before the pandemic. Understood. Thank you for that. There are no further questions registered. So I hand back to the speakers. Okay. I thank you very much. We have now managed 4 quarters in the pandemic, And I'm very happy now that it looks like the second quarter will be a start of the turnaround. We will increase sales compared to the Q1, and I hope we will continue with that. And the vaccination We'll continue with the speed we have for the moment that the international travel will come back. With the international travel income being back and with the 787 as our most important platform, we are in a good position to grow and get back to levels that is not too far away from the 'nineteen levels. Thank you very much, and talk to you again in 3 months.