Good day, and welcome to Elanders AB conference call. At this time, I will now turn the call over to Magnus Nilsson. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Welcome, everyone. This is Magnus Nilsson, CEO of Elanders Group, and together with me, Andréas Wikner, our CFO, is here as well. Okay. I will now go through our presentation, then we go directly to slide number five to look at the fourth quarter. Despite a very complex environment, could we deliver a result that is clearly better than last year as a result of our strategy to continually broaden our customer base, but also our service and to increase our geographic footprint. If we look at the demand from our different customer segments in the fourth quarter, was it a very mixed picture. Some had lower volumes than expected, but other ones had higher than expected. In the end, this resulted in a very strong fourth quarter.
Cost for material, fuel and electricity starts to stabilize now but still on a high level. Positive is that we continue to see improvements in the global supply chain, which improves capacity and reduced prices, which will help our customers as well. In the quarter, can you see a very strong performance by Supply Chain Solutions despite low demand from some product areas like TVs, computers, and white goods. This was compensated by high demand of heat pumps and other electricity saving products. Still a strong growth in the Fashion segment in North America and overall a stable demand from our other customer segments.
To improve our margins even further in the Supply Chain Solutions, have also decided to close down some non-profitable parts of our road transportation activities in Germany. We have also decided to lower the amount of buy and sell activities in Asia in 2023. Both of these actions will help us to release more capital and of course then improve our margins step by step. Print & Packaging Solutions continues to show a strong recovery after a tough first half year, with the help of price increases but also better availability of material. We could also see a positive recovery from online print order products like photo books and calendars in the fourth quarter. If we then look at our numbers, can you see that we managed to deliver an EBITDA excluding one-off items that is 36% better than last year?
If you look at the full year results for the group, we've managed to improve our profit per share with 42%, which we're very proud of when we consider how challenging 2022 has been. If we go to slide six, look at our business area, fourth quarter, and look at Supply Chain Solutions. Can we show a very strong growth in both sales and results. We improved our adjusted EBITDA margin to 7.8% compared to 6% the year before, despite the challenging market with lots of fluctuations in the demand from our customers. We should also have in our mind when we compare our fourth quarter in 2022 to 2021 that Bergen contributed with two months of sales and results in Q4 2021.
We then look at Print & Packaging Solutions, can we see strong improvement in sales with an organic growth of 12% and an improved adjusted EBITDA result? The main drivers behind the better result is price increases, better availability of paper and cardboard, and a strong recovery when it comes to online print volumes. We then go to slide number seven to look at our different customer segments, and then look at our sales to automotive, you can see that sales improved compared to last year, despite that our customers still have problems with shortage of component of components like semiconductors, which continually results in irregular outputs from their factories. A big part of the growth in sales actually comes from successful price increases during the year.
Still very positive in this segment is that our automotive customers still have full order books. We then look at electronics, is the picture a bit more complicated with low demand in Asia and also decreasing demand on products like computers in both Asia and Europe. On the other hand, can we see increasing demand for heat pumps and increased demand for storing of electronics products in Europe, and we expect to see some growth in the demand in Asia the coming months because of China's new COVID policies. In Fashion & Lifestyle, we can show a good growth compared to last year. The growth comes, of course, mainly from Bergen and North America. To support this growth, we will, during Q1, open a new site in Atlanta in the U.S.
In Europe, also demand slowing a bit, but it was still better than expected and so it looks rather good also going forward. If we then go to slide number 8, you can see that Health Care & Life Science shows a good growth, and we have also decided to open a new cleanroom facility in Indiana in U.S. in 2023. If we look at industrial, you can see a very stable demand despite low demand of products like power tools. This we could offset by increased volumes in the area of thermal technology. Other sales shows a strong growth, which is mainly driven by recovering demands of photo books, calendars, children books, and other similar online print products. We could also see a good demand from other online products like smaller series of packaging material as well.
If we then go to slide number nine, you will see our group targets when it comes to reduction of the GHG emissions. We have worked really hard the last year to map our greenhouse gas emissions and to plan how we reduce our emissions. We are proud to present a solid three-step plan. In 2030, should our Scope 1 and 2 emissions reduce with 50% and our Scope 3 emissions related to our own operations by 30%. In 2040, should our Scope 1 and 2 emissions be reduced by 75%, and in 2050 should Elanders achieve net zero over the entire value chain.
We then go to slide number 10. To look how things will be going forward, we can really see that the Elanders global footprint and diversified customer base really helps in a challenging market. Decreasing demand for some products can often be compensated by increasing demand for other products. We can also see that the low demand increases the need for storage of products. The lack of space makes it possible to also achieve good margins in this type of business. We are also benefiting from the nearshoring trend, especially when it comes to our European customers that now are moving parts of their sourcing from Asia to Europe, which increases their demand for supply chain services in Europe.
We can especially see this in the automotive segment that are doing lots of actions in this area to shorten their lead times and to protect that we get our products in time. The restructuring our German road transportation business and our strategic decision to load amount of buy and sell business will improve our margins, also lower our working capital. Will, of course, affect our top line negatively with around SEK 500 million. If you look at material and energy prices, are they starting to stabilize? The inflation drives up expectation when it comes to salary increases, which together with higher interest rates, will be the more challenging part in 2023.
I must say overall, it looks rather good for us, and we have shown in 2022 that we can handle also lots of ups and downs, and we are still very confident that 2023 also could be a good year for the group. Okay, thank you. Now I hand over the questions. Operator, can you please take care of that?
Dear participant, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one. If you want to withdraw your question, please press star two. We'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions. We'll take our first question from Carl Ragnerstam from Nordea. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Hi, it's Carl here from Nordea. A few questions. Firstly, on the margin side of Supply Chain Solutions, is it possible to give any flavors on the drivers behind it? I guess a big portion of it is a strong performance in Bergen, but does it explain the whole margin uplift, or is it... Yeah, if you could give some flavor on that to start off with.
Yeah, hi, Carl. No, of course, Bergen is an important driver to the, to the margin improvement. We could also see that, you know, we have worked a lot with the LGI the last year, so we can also see improvements there. To reach the next step in improved margins, I think the actions we are now taking in closing down low margin road transportation business in Germany, that's also in LGI, will really help us. Also, of course, we can see that the buy and sell activities with the cost to finance it nowadays is not so good business for us. It's more driving sales, but no margin. No, but overall, Bergen, absolutely, we could also see improvements in LGI and Mentor Media in the end of the year.
They had a tough first half year. Now we feel that we're on the right way there.
Very good. On the cash flow side, you continue to tie up in Q4 here a little bit of working capital, although to a lesser extent than what we've seen before. When would you say that we would or should see releases? Is it already in Q4 or Q1, sorry, or is it or would it come with a lag?
It's Andréas here. Hi, Carl. I would say that we expect some effects in Q1, but we think the major part will come in the second quarter. I would say that we are slightly positive in Q1, but much more in second quarter.
Is it possible to give some guidance on a full year basis? Is it possible to sort of release the roughly SEK 400 million you tied up? Or is it? Yeah, what magnitude could we talk about here in 2023?
I would say that it's reachable to be able to do that.
Yeah.
It's a little bit timing, I would say, because we look at the balance sheet at a particular date. In general, overall, I think it should be possible to release at around SEK 400 million in 2023.
We still have a pretty high safety stock in the print area because of the problem with material. Now that stock looks better. We are expecting that our companies will release a lot of the stock, use that. Then we buy and sell good all step by step. Road transportation, that will take some time before that gives. I think that will be after Q2. After Q2. Yeah.
Mm.
Okay, very good. Sounds promising. I mean, as I guess it's one more for you, Andréas, we can see that net financials continues to come up a bit here also in Q4. Would you say that the Q4 level is the run rate we should expect full year 2023, or should we expect continued step up during 2023?
No, I think you can assume that Q4 is the run rate for 2023, I would say.
Okay, very good. The final one from my side, you talk a bit about nearshoring and the potentials from it. Have you so far experienced an increased amount of quotations from your customers? I mean, old ones as well as new ones when they move from, I guess, Asia into Europe more? Or is it still too early to see effects from that?
We could already see effects from it in Q4, that especially our automotive customers already have managed to change some volume flows from eastern part of Europe into Germany, for example, where we're handling the coordination of all the materials. We can already see positive effects. We are also starting to see some effects in Mexico, where we have some small activities, that our electronics customers now want us to increase our capacity in Mexico because they will move some value-added services to Mexico to be close to the U.S. market. Everyone's talked about it for a long time, but now we can start to see some clear signs. There's also some increasing activities in India as well, with some transfer from Asia or from China into India.
Especially automotive, we can see they are moving pretty quickly and it's happening. With our footprint in Europe, it's of course, very good for us.
Okay, very good. That's all for me. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
We'll take our next question from Adrian Gilani from ABG Sundal Collier. Your line is open, please go ahead.
This is Adrian from ABG. Just a quick question, first of all, on the restructuring in Germany. The EBITDA effect of SEK 30 million that you mentioned in the press release, is that an immediate effect that we should start seeing that run rate already from Q1, or will that take some time? As a follow-up, are you able to quantify the working capital effect from that restructuring as well?
I think, I don't expect a full run rate in 2023 with this sort of SEK 5 million because we are, taking it down step by step. At least, I think at least 50% of it should come already 2023, and then 2024, it's full effect. I don't know with the working capital. It's difficult to quantify, I think.
Yeah.
SEK 50 million?
Yeah.
SEK 50 million.
I think so, because sales is around almost SEK 300 million. Yeah, like Andréas says, around SEK 40 million-SEK 50 million. Yeah.
Okay, thank you. That's, that's helpful. Regarding Bergen as well, in previous quarters, you've specifically written that Bergen has had high double-digit growth, and now you've switched to just writing double-digit growth. I just wanted to know if, am I reading too much into that sort of change in wording, or have we sort of reached the point where Bergen is now starting to reach max capacity and the growth rate is not the same going forward?
Oh, no. I think, you know, they had already a big increase in Q4 in 2021. Now when we enter Q4 in 2022 and compare to the other four, they still have a very good growth, but it's has gone down a bit. Now they still have capacity to grow because we opened up a new facility in Atlanta now in Q1, and they still have 50% available capacity in their site in Pennsylvania. In Atlanta, I think they will have 75% available capacity. It's more about how quick you can fill it up. They have had a tremendous growth this year, and I think they will continue in double digits, but maybe not so high that they have had this year.
Okay. Just regarding the end market demand, you've talked also for two quarters about slowing demand in certain segments within electronics. I just wanted to see if that how does that trend look in Q4 compared to Q3 and perhaps also a bit of sort of current trading so far in Q1?
I think Q4 was continued to be pretty slow for some products like computers and TVs. We normally call white goods more industrial, but there is also much lower demand and as I said, power tools. The good thing we have other areas like thermal technology, heat pumps and things like that, and there the demand is really strong. I think when we talk about electronic products, the signals from customers are that they expect not going down more, but it will be pretty slow the first half year and then pick up speed again the second half of 2023.
There, there are a lot of uncertainties, for the, for the moment, January always starts slow, for the moment, we don't see so much more downtrend in demand, you know? It's overall it looks pretty stable. Who knows? I think in Q1 you will really see if the economy will go down more or it will be stabilized. We also think that some effect is because of post-COVID effects, because during the COVID year, you know, laptops were selling in record volumes, lots of white goods, power tools, people were renovating their houses and things like that. It's really complex picture to see and still it looks rather stable if you looked over the whole line of our customer segments.
Okay. I understand there's a lot of moving parts. It's a bit difficult to call but.
Yeah, yeah.
Okay. Also you gave some color on the margins and supply chain, I can ask a bit about print as well. You said that material costs are not as big of an issue in the report, but still we're seeing a fairly significant margin drop year-over-year. Are paper prices still sort of the biggest reason for this, or is there something else we should take into account in print as well?
No, I think the first half year was really bad for us, and then we start catching up. If we look at the fourth quarter, they are 1.5% behind last year, and that is, we still have some price increases to push through to our customers. We feel a lot of confidence when it comes to Print to Packaging. You know, it takes time to push for the price increases. For us it looks like we have a really good recovery in Q3 and Q4, and the margin will come. It's, it takes time when you are a, you know, a subcontractor. We cannot take some time to negotiate the price increases, but we're on our way.
Also when the material prices stabilizes, then it's more easy. When it goes up every second month, you need to have price negotiations every second month. If it's stabilized, you know, you can push through your price increases, and then you are at more normal levels. Yep.
Great. Then I can finish off in that case with just a question on your margin target of 7%. It sounds almost like the 7% margin target should be doable in 2023, given the sort of current margins you have and looking at also at the sort of you have price increases as well to carry forward to customers in the coming quarters as well. Would you agree that 7% looks doable in 2023?
Yeah, I think absolutely. Of course, depending on the economy. If there should be no wide decrease in demand over all our customer segments, then it will of course be challenging. I think if you look at the picture of is today and with all the actions we are taking and also with the actions when it comes to buy and sell and the road transportation business in Germany, that will affect us a bit still in the first half year. It's absolutely in reach. Yes.
Okay. In that case, that was all my questions, so thank you.
Well, thank you, Adrian.
We'll take our next question from Thomas Nilsson from Analysguiden. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Thank you. I was wondering if you could talk a bit about potential future acquisitions. First, how much can be expected to be added from acquisitions in terms of revenue over, say, the next three years? Also, what customer segments are being prioritized?
Okay. No, thank you. Now, as everyone know acquisitions are a very important tool for Elanders. We made a really big one with Bergen Logistics. As I've affected us a bit, but as you could see in the report, we are now down to Net Debt/EBITDA to 2.8. Of course, we want to go further down. Acquisitions are really important for us. Normally we can do acquisitions for around, you know, SEK 400 million-500 million per year with our cash flow. On top of that, of course, we can also utilize the banks. It's hard to say, but I...
You know, for us it's really important to continue and the Fashion & Lifestyle is still really interesting, as we have you know, the bargain model is very successful for us. There could be add-ons in U.S. on that area. We still see in when it comes to more value-added services in electronics. Where we have done some really nice acquisitions the last year in technical logistics and things like that. Of course, but of course it should be for the right multiple, and we should see clear synergies. I think in average the coming three years, if we find the right targets, I think we could buy at least a turnover of around, you know, SEK 500 million to, yeah, SEK one billion something. Then also.
Okay. Thank you very much. Yeah.
We also look at MedTech logistics as well, which is an interesting area for us, so.
Okay. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you.
Once again, ladies and gentlemen, please press star one to ask for a question. We'll pause for just a quick moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for question. We'll take our next question from Markus Almerud from Pareto Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Sir, your line is open, please go ahead.
Hi, can you hear me now?
Mm-hmm. Yes, we can hear you, Markus.
Hi, Markus here from Pareto Securities. Just wanted to follow up quickly on the second sourcing or the change of value chains, which is I think is quite exciting. You say you see some of the electronics, but also in automotive, but what kind of discussions are you having and how are they acting? That is, are they adding on or are they moving? To kind of what extent this is happening. How are they reasoning? Is it just are they adding suppliers or do you see full moves of value chains? If you could talk a little bit about the dynamics and also what kind of discussions you're having around this.
Yeah, I know. Of course, it's always a delicate question because lots of our customers are really big public companies as well, so they're maybe not so transparent from a strategic point of view, but we can see it more when they are acting. We could see now that they are opening up for more suppliers in Europe, and we can see that they are. Sometimes it's the, they get the Asian suppliers to move manufacturing into Europe as well. I think there is, you know, it's two reasons. One reason is of course to secure the flow of components and not rely in global just in time that everyone has learned it's really painful.
There will also be new regulations in EU when it comes to, I think it is tax and environmental tax when you import products from a country. That will add on. Companies in Europe need to look from that perspective as well. I think the main reason is that the global just in time model has proven that it doesn't work and could also be political reasons. We can see that they're acting, and automotive is normally pretty quick, and they are acting. Electronics, they also want to do it, but it takes a longer time for them because it's still extremely developed, especially in China. You know, you need to have your suppliers, and there's other suppliers supplying them with components. It takes time.
It looks like there's a trend now with more regional supply chains, and that will normally increase the amount of needed contract logistics and logistics services because in the end it means more volumes for suppliers like us.
Am I correct to say, 'cause it feels like there is also change in... I mean, we've discussed this before and I know that I think you've mentioned this in previous reports as well, but correct me if I'm wrong, but this is the first time that you say that you actually see this and there's not discussions, but that they're now acting on this. Is that correct?
Yeah. It's actually happened now. We could see increasing flows of. 'Cause we coordinate for some of customers in Europe, the flows to their factories in Germany, for example. We could see that the flow coming from other European countries is increasing a lot because it normally goes via different hubs center where we are running, there's a big difference there.
Yeah. If you look at customers outside of automotive, are you having the same kind of discussions or are you not in a position to say? I mean, is this something which is happening across the board?
I think it's lots of companies want to do it, but it needs to be big enough. There the automotive guys are normally big enough. They can even have manufacturing of the same car in several countries. I think for other manufacturing companies it can be harder. Maybe they have, you know, built up a huge factory in Asia and have one in Europe and one in Americas, but they do different products, and then they need to ship them across all over the world. For them to break up the supply chain to do it more regional is, will cost them much more money and be much more complicated.
I think in the end, what we hear from lots of our customers, they'll try to find ways to do it instead of sending, you know, both finished products and components over the whole world all the time.
Yeah. Okay. Perfect. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, please press star one if you have further question. We'll pause for another quick moment. There are no further question on the line, sir. Please proceed.
Okay. Thank you everyone for calling in to our phone conference. Thank you. Bye-bye.
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