Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Jan 27, 2021

Good morning and welcome to Essity's Year End Report 2020. And to summarize, we are happy today to present the highest adjusted operating result ever for Essity. This is SEK 17,600,000 an increase with 11% compared to 2019. And this was achieved through a margin improvement of 220 basis points to 14.5 percent for the year. And considering, of course, the huge uncertainties throughout this year of the big pandemic, ending up with an organic net sales of minus 1.9% shows how resilient our different businesses are in very turbulent circumstances. Also operating cash flow was very strong over SEK 16,000,000,000 and we based on this from the Board recommend to the Annual Shareholders Meeting to increase the dividend with SEK 0.5 to SEK 6.75 for the year. And I think this 6 year development shows the strength of having a number of categories that benefit from different market circumstances, but with the foundation of all being related to hygiene and health, which is of course of growing importance, not least through this pandemic. And in this perspective, the small decline in growth of 1.9% in 2020, I think, really shows how resilient we are after having average annual increases of over SEK 5,000,000,000 and maybe even more stable to the right here is the adjusted EBITA, which has grown with over 10% per year over the last 6 years, an annual increase of approximately SEK 1,400,000,000 per year and 2020 was not an exception, actually a year where adjusted EBITA grew even more than on average. And there are ups and downs, but overall, Essity has a very, very strong combination of businesses that together create this stability and solid growth both in EBITA and net sales. And underlying this, which is very, very important for the future is an improvement in margins both in mature and emerging markets. But the key message here is that since 2015, margins in emerging markets have nearly doubled from 6.5% to 12.9%. And emerging markets include Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. And this is very positive for the future considering that this is where the growth is in the long term. So really giving us the opportunity to invest in growth for the future in emerging markets without a major negative impact on margins. And this is based on the strategies that we've been talking about for years now, which is premiumization, innovation, cost efficiency and everything we do. And we will continue on this journey going forward. Just a short view of what we achieved in 2020 before we turn to the quarter four numbers. In spite of lockdowns and restrictions, we had a very ambitious launch program for innovations. And here are just some examples of the different innovations and the different brands that have been supported. And we were also agile and disruptive internally in quickly adjusting our launch programs to adapt to the need for hygienic and health products supporting, of course, fighting the pandemic. And here are some examples. Soaps and sanitizers where sales were up close to 40% for the year, converting air dryers to Torque Peak Serve. So don't dry your hands on air dryers because they blow water droplets throughout the washrooms and I mentioned this before, but just a reminder. 1 year ago at this point last year, we had no plans to produce face masks. And now this is a growing business with production in 3 countries. So very agile from the entire organization here. And of course, repositioning existing products to really underscore the hygienic benefits of these products. And the results are clear. Over 90% of our branded sales have number 1 or number 2 positions on the markets where we're active. And maybe more importantly, over 60% of our market positions in retail branded are growing and over 20% are stable. And for those of you who participated in the Capital Markets Day in May 2019, you might remember that this number was at that time over 50%. So we are continuing to grow market shares in many more markets and categories then we did 1.5 years ago. And of course, this also relates to our digital transformation, which flows through the entire organization. And looking at e commerce specifically, in the end that accounted for SEK 15,000,000,000 of sales last year. And in the Q4, this was 15% of sales. And to give some more feel for what we're doing in all these areas, I'm going to show 2 short videos, one about TENA SmartCare, which is a new product launch that we are very, very that we're very excited about and the other one about what we're doing in digitalization in supply chain and specifically in manufacturing. By introducing Tena Smart Care Change Indicator, a sustainable and revolutionary digital technology, Tenne has taken incontinence care to a new level with the reusable change indicator. Caregivers receive notifications to their smartphone when it's time to consider change. TENA Smart Care Change Indicator helps to ease the stress of uncertainty for caregivers, reducing the need for unnecessary checking as well as helping improve efficiency and daily practice at care homes. The TELUS SmartCare Professional Care Dashboard for care homes provides a complete overview of data on notifications and product changes to facilitate planning and optimize routines. With TENER Smart Care Change Indicator, we provide a higher level of comfort and quality of life. I think that's a great tagline. The more we connect, the better we care. Moving over then to the 2nd short movie about manufacturing and digitalization. Digitalization is an integral part of Essity's strategy and the company's production facilities are in the forefront of digitalization in the industry. Essity has adopted Industry 4.0 enablers to support its journey towards improved quality, productivity and sustainability. Digital And the product quality is now automatically verified by detection systems before it reaches the market. With database focus on variability reductions in the production process, the customer gets the same touch and feel every time they use an Essity product. Essity factories have access to manufacturing execution systems, enabling them to leverage real time data transparency from operations. Essity has invested in increased digitalization capability in their workforce and created active digitalization teams at its manufacturing sites. Coordinated by global experts who are constantly seeking the latest trends, examples of technologies in use at this time include Internet of Things Sensory, Computer vision, augmented prescriptive maintenance, connected devices and machine learning. Esity, shaping the future of manufacturing. So I hope that gives you a little bit flavor of what we're doing in digitalization. We were also able to make 2 value creating acquisitions in Medtech, as we have reported earlier, and made big strides when it came to our sustainability targets and initiatives. And of course, one exciting thing for 2021 here is our investment in sustainable fiber technology in Mannheim in Germany, where we are expecting to start up at the end of the first half of this year. And all this work has also resulted in a number of recognitions, of course, very important being part of Dow Jones Sustainability Indices in Europe on the A list for CDP and an ESG rating of AAA from MSCI and just recently this week being listed as 1 of the world's 100 Most Sustainable Companies by Corporate Nights. So with that, over to the Q4, where we continue to see a strong underlying business performance in an increasingly challenging environment. When we entered into the Q4, it seemed for a few weeks as if market conditions were easing and then absolutely, the opposite happened, of course, with ever stronger lockdowns and restrictions that we see even today. And in spite of this, we were able to show organic net sales that were close to flat and continue to improve our margins compared to a year ago at 14.2%. We improved mix in all our business areas And of course, we're also benefiting from lower raw material costs even though at a smaller rate than in previous quarter. And what I'm very happy about for last year also, I think, taking out a major uncertainty, we were not certain how much we could save costs in this very difficult operating environment. And in the end, our COGS savings were over SEK 1,000,000,000, so a huge achievement there and very strong in the Q4. Net sales declined of 0.5% organically consisting of a small volume uplift and negative price mix, mostly in Consumer Tissue in China and also to some extent in Europe. Adjusted EBITDA margin up 10 basis points And here we see a positive impact on gross margin from the raw materials and COGS savings and then negative from A and P. And what we're doing here is that we are accelerating through the curve. So this is a very conscious decision to increase A and P spending in order to boost market shares and position ourselves towards our competitors as we prepare for markets gradually opening up during the year. So this is a very conscious decision. And putting this in perspective, since it's such a roller coaster and so big uncertainties here from quarter to quarter, we show to the left here the net sales and organic net sales growth and how it plunged in the second quarter and then gradually has improved in the 3rd and the 4th quarter, while the EBITA adjusted EBITA margin has remained very, very stable on over 14% here. So a strong number recovering just considering the very low fixed cost absorption that we have in parts of the business, mainly professional hygiene. Going through the 3 different business areas and starting with Personal Care, a very strong quarter with organics net sales growing 2.2% with a mix of volume, price and mix, even though sales are still negatively impacted by people using less protection while in lockdown and while at home. So we expect to see somewhat improved underlying market growth throughout the year as restrictions ease and we go back to a more normal life one way or the other. And I'd like to point out that we saw also growth both in mature and emerging markets and very positive baby care now improving significantly. And this is a result of the Cure and Kill program we have been running for several years where we took the last steps in discontinuing our joint venture in Africa during last year, Sunsela in North Africa and stepping out of Russia and the remaining business now, both the branded and private label, is doing really well, not only from a growth perspective, but also margin wise, we also benefited from lower raw material costs. And looking forward into this quarter, we see stable costs for raw materials for these categories. Consumer Tissue, very high organic net sales growth in emerging markets, 12% and of course, very much Vinda. They had a very, very successful Q4 with Singles Day 11.11 but also other festivals like 12.12. So very strong growth in emerging markets also in Latin America. We continue to improve the structural profitability as is evident in the strong COGS savings. We saw lower raw material costs and lower prices, including promotional levels. And to bring some more detail to this, in China, we had higher promotional levels on consumer tissue, but actually did not change the underlying prices. And we expect promotional levels to come down now in the Q1 where which is not then influenced by the festivals that we see in the Q4. And in Europe, there's a negative price impact from negotiations that were concluded during last year, so nothing new in retailer brands. And we are still in the middle of negotiations with our branded volumes in Europe. So we are, of course, in those discussions also including the increases that we've seen in pulp prices at the beginning of the year. This is part of day to day business and really not something that we believe will have a major impact during the coming year. Sales and marketing costs increased as a percent of net sales. And as I mentioned previously, this is something that we're doing to position ourselves for the future. Professional hygiene, of course, still suffering and increasing throughout the Q4 from lockdowns and restrictions with volume down 16%, while we continue to have a positive price mix also here. We have strong sales growth for wiping, cleaning, dispensers and skincare, unfortunately, this is less than 30% of sales. And our washroom products and also our sales to, of course, hotels, restaurants and office buildings, commercial buildings and public buildings is still very negatively impacted by lockdowns and restrictions. And in spite of that, with big efforts on cost efficiency, we managed to keep margins on 13% and preparing for the gradual opening, which I think will be a little bit of a secret weapon for us here going forward as markets return to normal because with all the work we've done now, gaining market shares in skincare with a high placement of dispensers also with premium dispensers. I think we're in great shape for the gradual improvement of the market conditions for professional hygiene during 2021. So to summarize very briefly, most important is, of course, to secure business success while keeping employees safe and contributing to society. But I would like to mention also the development in personal care and throughout also the second half of the year, specifically in medical, where growth has been coming back. We see that we are gaining market share, we are winning the relative game. And specifically in the Q4, wound care, which is the most important part of medical, grew by 6.7%. So a very, very positive development there. And we feel that medical is also now in good shape for the gradual reopening of markets and doing continuously better both relatively and in absolute terms. And to summarize, it's been a year that has been incredibly volatile and unpredictable. Both the organization, I'm very proud to say, has been agile, adaptive and been able to manage the situation a fantastic year, which puts us in a great spot for this year where our priorities are to accelerate growth in Personal Care further, continue to improve the structural profitability of tissue. And of course, we are starting the manufacturing road map this year. We will give more information on that after the Q1 and that should support the above, prepare for a strong comeback in professional hygiene as we go back to normal, as the vaccines have a positive impact on the underlying business conditions for professional hygiene. And with our very strong balance sheet, we will also pursue acquisitions in high margin categories and continue to lead in sustainability. Thank you for listening. Let's open up for questions. And your first question comes from the line of Victoria Neiss from SG. Please ask your question. Hello there. Good morning. My first question is on the strong volumes in Consumer Tissue, particularly in Asia. We just wondered if that was driven by inventory build following the high level of promotions that consumers know will come off. And therefore, would you expect to give some of that volume back in the Q1? And then my second question is on the disappointing Astellio news. Just wondered whether you could outline whether strategically it's a setback. And are you able to talk about why you wanted to take control and what were the considerations there? Thank you. Yes. Starting with Assalio, we typically never comment on acquisitions in the process. I would just like to note that the Chairman at the end of his statement noted that the independent board committee remains open to further engagement. So I think it's too early to call it disappointing. Moving over then to Consumer Tissue in Asia. I think the pattern for last year in Q4 was not different from previous years with very, very strong sales in the annual festivals slight single stay 11, 11 and 12, 12. And typically then Q1 is a slower quarter with the Chinese New Year coming up. So I don't see that there's any additional kind of stockpiling with consumers due to the strong sales in Q4. Thank you. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Celine Tanuti calling from JPMorgan. Please ask your Thank you. Good morning, everyone. So my first question is to come back on what you said on the promotion level and pricing. So could you give a bit more granularity on the quantum of promotion that you've Seen in China as well as in Europe, if you could quantify that. And as we look into Next year, so you mentioned a slower promotional level in Asia and you are trying to Engage with price rise, is that what I understood correctly in Europe? And how do you think that is doable in the context of negative price that we've seen already in Q4 last year? And my second question is correlated. I think you did mention the outlook on Personal Care in terms of raw material Cost as we look into Q1, but as well some of your competitors have been mentioning inflation in raw materials like Close to high single digit. Is it something that we should expect for you? Thank you. Thanks, Celine. Yes, and I will be brief about China since I think there's a lot of material from Vinda also. So what we're seeing in China right now is that many of the smaller players are looking for price increases in the market due to the increasing pulp prices short term in China, which helps the bigger players and of course the market leader, Vinda in protecting pricing going forward into the Q1, which typically is a quarter with lower promotional intensity. In the EU, we have finalized a number of negotiations on a good level that we're happy with in Personal Care in private label and we are in the negotiations for the branded part of the business, which is and approximately half of the business. Some of that is done, some of that remains. And of course, the new information on pulp prices is part of those negotiations. And our raw material prices will always fluctuate, and I'm not very concerned about the current increases. So giving an outlook then on pulp prices, we expect them to be higher in the Q1, both sequentially and year over year. And then actually looking forward, I think it's still very, very uncertain where pulp prices will go. So I'm not able to be specific. We typically never are, but I think this still remains to be seen. Impact for Essery in the Q1 and Q2 will be quite minor from pulp price increases. Question comes from the line of Ian Simpson calling from Barclays. Please ask your question. Thank you very much. I just wondered if you could Talk a little bit about Baby Care with that top line. It's very impressive. You attributed most of it To Western Europe, I think. Is that share gain on your part, do you feel or market acceleration Or some sort of mixture of the 2? And then secondly, I was just wondering in terms of your tissue pricing. You've Said that most of it was attributable to higher promotion in China. Would it be fair to say that European tissue was sort of broadly flat or anything to help us get a sense of the quantum as to what specifically China Tissue and European Tissue pricing did in the Q4 would be great. Thank you. Okay. So I'll talk about Baby Care and then hand over to Frederic, who is in a separate room today, of course, in order to stay safe. So Baby Care growth would actually have been a few percentage points higher in the quarter if it hadn't been for the discontinuation of the final remaining business in Russia and some decline in Northeast Africa during the transaction that we concluded. And we saw strong growth compared to a year ago, both in private label and in branded. And this is market share gain. This is not a growing category in Europe. So we are doing well in all markets, in the Nordics, in France, in our bigger private label or retailer brands contracts. And also in Malaysia on a declining market, Vinda is taking market share, while we have lost a little bit of in Latin America. Fredrik, let's try to hand over to you here when it comes to tissue pricing and the various impacts that we saw in the Q4 and expect to see going forward? Yes. Thanks, Magnus and thanks, I think you've actually answered most of the questions already. So if we look at Vinda, I think you commented on the fact that pretty much all of that decline had to do with promotional activity, which is expected to relax in Q1. If we talk about Europe, actually from a sequential stand point if you take Q4 versus Q3, quite minor impact. So the total price decline that we have seen as a result of the total price decline we've seen during 2020. And of course, when there is going to be a little bit of impact kind of remaining from what has been agreed in Q4. But as I said, most of it is actually there and of course then the future will is still open when it comes to part of the branded portfolio. But once again, just to remind what you've already said Magnus here that in those negotiations, of course, the outlook for pulp is included in those negotiations. So we'll see when we come forward here. But it looks reasonably okay. Brilliant. Thank you very much. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Linus Larsson calling from SEB. Please ask your question. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Just to start off then maybe a follow-up on the consumer tissue pricing. You said that some of the promotional impact that we saw in price mix in the Q4 were To reverse in the Q1, would you be able to just repeat that or even specify how much of a reverse we might see in consumer tissue price mix in the Q1, please. This is entirely a question for Vinda. So I think my recommendation is to look at what they have been stating in this because we didn't have any increasing promotional pressure in Europe during the Q4, quite the contrary, it was another quarter that was characterized by a little bit minor, but still panic buying in some countries and also an understanding, I think, by retailers of the benefits from working with big stable suppliers with strong brands that have a high service level and the high everyday product quality. And of course, that is also helping us in the ongoing negotiations with retailers that are currently ongoing. Great. That's very helpful. And if you were to break down the 3.5% Negative price mix that you saw in Consumer Tissue in the Q4, how would that roughly break down? Do we do that, Frederic? I hand over to you. No, Hylinos, no, we don't really break that down. But course, as we have talked about here, most of the promotional activity was in China. So on the other hand, the European Consumer Tissue business is bigger. So we don't break it down, but I think you hopefully get a rough understanding from what we have communicated. But was there a mix was there a significant mix component in the 4th quarter? It was a positive mix. We don't, as you know, specify specifically what's price and what's but we had a positive mix component. There as you know, and we've discussed it many times before, there are many kind of mix movements here. So one is obviously premiumization or product mix and that was quite positive. So we continue not least actually in China the premiumization route. And then we also have another mix impact, which is basically in Europe branded and branded versus private label. And also there we grew the branded portfolio quite considerably. So we increased the share of branded versus private label. And then there's a third, which is the country mix between which was slightly negative because of growth tendencies. But overall, all of these things were positive net positive. That's very helpful. Thank you very much. And then just like you already mentioned, you had very strong Finish to the year in terms of cost savings. What's your projections for the year ahead? Yes, very strong at over SEK 1,000,000,000 and SEK 434,000,000 in the 4th quarter. Some of that is lower bonus payouts. And of course, as we have communicated before, lower travel, lower costs for conferences and so on, like all other companies, we expect to see cost of goods sold savings in this year of between SEK 0.5 billion to SEK 1,000,000,000, so same guidance as for the last couple of years. So we believe that we have a very strong momentum in this area. We see opportunities. And as we give more detail about the manufacturing road map, let's see if we are able to revise those numbers. But the current expectation for this year is to have COGS savings of between NOK 0.5 billion to NOK 1,000,000,000. Jan comes from the line of Karel Zoete calling from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please ask your question. Yes. Good morning, all. Thanks for taking the question. I have three follow-up questions. The first one is in relation to your medical business and particularly the wound care turnaround during Q4 despite the lockdown, can you provide more insights in what is driving the improvement and how we should think about 2021? Then the second question is on fixed cost absorption within hygiene and you mentioned that It regards to the 2020 margin performance. But when we think about 2021, clearly this business has a lot of recovery potential. So how should we think about the margin trajectory within Professional Hygiene? And then the third question is on which is e commerce is now 15% of your revenues, which is quite a bit. Can you highlight where you've Progress the most in the area of digital sales. Thank you. Okay. So I will start with the first and the third question and then hand over to Fredrik. And of course, Fredrik, feel free to fill in on those questions as well. But I leave the fixed cost absorption to you. So yes, medical and wound care, one reason why wound care is turning around faster than the compression and orthopedics subcategories or sub segments is that we have seen an increasing pace of planned or elective surgery again. And we have worked so hard now for years to improve our go to market, our product offering, our brand equity, and we are seeing this paying off. And of course, over 6% is a very strong number and stronger than what I've seen from several competitors. So it's an indication that we are doing the right things and that when market conditions start to normalize, we have a very strong offering here. And of course, we've done similar activities also in the other parts of Medical and expect that to show as we come out of lockdowns and restrictions, which still has a very, very negative impact. Just as an example, the hospital in San Moris in France, which serves the local ski resorts typically does 3,000 castings every year, so 30 per day for 100 days. And of course, it's 0. So when it comes to the other two parts of the Medical business, it can kind of only gradually improve. And we feel that we are relatively to our competitors in better shape than we were before. And this is also an area where we are investing as through this situation. So really continuing to develop that part of our business. So feel confident about that as markets start returning to normal. And wound care specifically, we are focused very much on Germany, which is our biggest wound care market and very much on the advantages of our advanced wound care offering, which is non silver offering and which is quite unique on the market and this is gaining traction. Yes, digitalization and e commerce online sales has actually been growing everywhere, but from very different starting points. So in Latin America, online sales has grown from being 1% of sales to 3% of sales, which is, of course, a huge increase, but from a very low level, while in China specifically now online sales accounts for 46% of overall sales and for Vinda in total 30 6% of sales, so accelerating even quicker. But also in Europe, actually in all markets, we have a higher and also in professional hygiene now. As a result of the pandemic, we see higher online sales and expect that to continue, which we feel is positive and because we are well positioned in those growing channels for the future. So with that, I hand over to you, Fredrik, to talk about fixed cost absorption. Yes, thank you and hi Coral. I just kind of if you take 2 steps back, you will remember that we had a very, very good trajectory when it comes to margins prior to COVID, so we were gradually increasing margins quite considerably and did that through, of course, much more e commerce and premiumization and many other activities, including cost savings. So generally the underlying performance of the business was very strong and remains very strong, but we got roughly about 36%, 37% of fixed costs. So obviously, when you have such a reduction of demand and therefore also production and sales that has a very, very significant impact on margin. And of course, we have partly mitigated that. So we've done a lot of cost activities as you have seen. We've also had although we don't really now have a lot of kind of temporary leaves, we've had that as well. So we've done a lot of cost activities. But needless to say, as of course volume starts to increase when restrictions and lockdowns gradually go away that will be quite positive for cost absorption and hence margin. So the underlying performance of Professional Hygiene remains very strong and it has improved actually throughout the year. So and that was also the ambition. So we are looking forward to a better margin as we go forward. Thank you. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Oskar Lindstrom calling from Danske. SKA, please ask your question. Hi, good morning. Three questions from my side. The first one is on demographics. I mean, there's been some talk about the pandemic leading having a negative impact on births. And my question to you is, I mean, have you seen this already in Q4? Are you expecting it in 2021? And then how would that impact your business? So that's my first question. The second question is on long term Customer consumer behavior sort of impact from the pandemic. I mean, we've all seen what the lockdowns mean for demand. But do you believe there's going to be sort of major long term lasting changes either in how you interact with and serve your customers or in how consumers Change their behavior or buying patterns and so on and opportunities and threats for you from that. Actually, I'll leave those two questions. Okay. Starting with demographics. Yes, I've seen some studies expecting birth rates to come down in the following years following the pandemic. Of course, Baby Care is the smallest category that we have and I think it's approximately 7% of sales. Out of that, those 7%, actually 1% or 2% is actually baby wipes and different types of wipes that are not only used for babies, but also for other purposes. So it's a quite small part of our business. And we've been working in an environment, our positions where actually demographic has not been favorable before. So birth rates have been coming down in Europe, also in Malaysia for quite some time. And we are working to increase market shares and the same for Latin America. So we don't see that as a big further negative influence on the group and not on Baby Care either in the next a couple of years. I think this is something we will manage as part of the day to day business. Long term behavior, absolutely. One of the big changes we're seeing already is what we call blended selling, which is then meeting our big customer, whether it's in health care or a retailer online, of course. And I don't believe that our sales forces will be are traveling to the same extent as before, even though probably to a higher extent than some say. And I'm following like all of us are, what's the take on employees coming back to the offices and what will change going forward. For sure, we know that we will work much, much more like we're doing now digitally and online. But we see in many studies that there's a growing demand actually for people to meet again and to come out and not only come out to restaurants traveling and so on, but also to come back to the office. And we also see management in many companies saying that we need this to build culture, to create a sense of urgency to build the team and so on and so forth. So I think there will be big changes, but maybe not as big as we think. And online sales will definitely continue to increase because it's just so convenient and works so well, especially for our categories that are bulky and quite low value, it's a big convenience. So there will be changes throughout. And also when it comes to us as a company in our travel costs and underlying costs because of course this is a big efficiency for us as well. On that, Thank you. That last comment about more moving online and your travel cost. In terms of when consumers buy more online, does that sort of benefit your Premiumization and sort of brand focused strategy or do they become more cost conscious when they buy online? And second question is follow-up is travel costs, what share of your sales is that? What we saw during last year is that increasing online sales was benefiting strong brands and innovation for a number of reasons. When consumers can't touch and feel and see the product, they go for what they trust and what they know and what they recognize. And secondly, also in terms of lower purchasing power, our categories are categories where people feel that they can still indulge themselves by buying a high quality product. It's still a small difference from buying us somewhat cheaper products. So we definitely benefit from online in terms of having strong brands and working with premiumization. The travel costs, I don't think we provide that number, Fredrik. No, we don't. And of course, if you look at the whole context of the company is not really material in that sense, but it has had a meaningful impact for our SG and A development this year. So of course, it is beneficial from an overall efficiency standpoint, obviously, but we don't provide this specific number. What about logistics costs in general? We're seeing some of those price indices coming up, do you foresee your costs, some headwinds from that in coming quarters? Distribution costs are in general negatively impacted from all kinds of restrictions on border and trade like Brexit instance, but also from smaller drop sizes, which is the result of online sales and home deliveries. But this is a trend that's impacting not only us, but the entire industry. And this is an area where we see big opportunities with the digitalization and through extensive work over the last years with demand planning through advanced looking at that through advanced analytics and connecting that to supply planning in the S and OP process, we kind of continue to counteract that continuously. In the last quarter, we actually saw some increased distribution costs also from rising container costs, especially in Asia, where lower global trade leads to imbalances in container where they're located and keeping them at high fill rates. So some changes here that drives costs, but this is not only for us, but a general development that we've been seeing over the last year. And Oskar, maybe we can add there. We don't provide guidance for the full year, more than kind of general direction, but if we just take the near term future, so quarter 1 of this year, 2021, then we expect it to be fairly stable in comparison to what we've seen in Q4. Okay, good. I just wanted to see that there were no sort of huge red flags here on logistics. No. Thank you. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Karri Rymptur calling from SHB. Please ask your Yes. Thank you very much. Two questions. I'll maybe take them 1 by 1. First, about Professional Hygiene Business. Can Can you give us any sense or color on the Q4 in Europe versus the U. S? How did your volumes develop? Was there a significant difference between the two geographies? And maybe especially when it comes to the hospitality vertical of that business? That's my first question. Yes, there is a big difference both because of the market conditions, also because of specific differences in product mix between these two regions. So the decline or the negative sales we're much higher in North America than in Europe. And we actually had individual countries and regions like the Nordics where we even saw positive sales in the 4th quarter, which was a result of some opening ups at the beginning of the quarter. But overall a negative development in both areas, but significantly bigger in North America. And this is because in North America, we're even more dependent than on hospitality, hotels, restaurants, catering. So we have a big, big napkins business there and this is, of course, very dramatically impacted. And on the other hand, that's where we're expecting to see the gradual improvement also based on all the dispensers that we're placing, the increased sales of skincare and so on as we gradually go back to normal. Fredrik, do you want to add something there? No. I think maybe one thing and that is as we have communicated before, Cara, we've also put significant efforts into sectors where we are slightly weaker. So the health and the industrial part where we have put much more resources, selling resources into those segments in North America and elsewhere. And there we have actually made progress, not yet so visible in the numbers or but will be as we go forward. So we're working on kind of all of these fronts, both from a product standpoint and also from the customer segment standpoint. So of course that's actually building the strength of the business as we are opening up here in 2021. All right, great. That's helpful. Then the second question relates to Consumer Tissue. You mentioned that you are and you have disclosed that you are sort of Looking to improve the structural profitability of that business. But when it comes to the margin volatility of that business, because typically, you don't hedge your input costs and then your contract cycles are pretty long with especially with some of the branded customers. So are you looking into trying to be more either more hedged on the input cost side Or more dynamic in the pricing side going forward? Is there anything that you can or are looking into or plan to do there? We're not planning to do hedging for the reasons we mentioned many times before. We need our sales force to be aware of the changes in the input costs immediately and hedging goes both ways. And we have also benefited from the declining raw material costs when costs come down, prices come down. However, we are looking at I wouldn't say that we have long contract terms. I think the longest contracts we have with retailers are up to 1 year. Having said that, yes, we are looking at increasing flexibility in those negotiations to see if we can be more even shorter term in the contract duration there to allow for then changes in the underlying raw materials. So that's something that we're working with actively actually in the current negotiations that are ongoing now. And just sort of for reference, what might be a sort of an average duration that you have with your Branded to retail customers? It's less than a year on average. It's between 6 months and 1 year. All right. Thank you. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Farhan Bey calling from Credit Suisse. Please ask your question. Morning, guys. Thank you for the question. A couple of quick ones, if I may. Just to follow-up on the remarks with regards to improving the structural profitability of the business of the Consumer Tissue business. Of course, we've seen a pretty unprecedented year this year with the retail side benefiting materially From lockdowns. When you talk about structural profitability, what margins are you alluding to, particularly as we go into this inflationary raw material environment and already in Q4, we began to see Some deceleration in Consumer Tissue Margins. So any sort of medium term expectation there would be helpful. A quick question for Frederic on working capital. I did note a slight Well, it's pretty big increase in inventories as a percentage of sales, the highest I think it's ever been since you became a singly publicly listed company, what are the drivers behind this would be helpful? And if I could sneak in a couple of financial questions for Frederic. Frederic, could you Kindly guide for the year with regards to the potential tax rate, CapEx expectation and also cash restructuring charges on the cash flow for 2021 would be very helpful. Thanks so much. Okay. I will soon hand over to you, Frederic. But of course, Consumer Tissue being our biggest business area needs to contribute to our overall increased return on capital employed target of over 17%, which means purely mathematical that Consumer Tissue needs to be somewhere 13% 15% and during several quarters of last year it was of course way above 16%. This is a long term journey that we've been progressing very successfully for many years and where we see many more opportunities and we'll continue relentlessly also going forward to increase our margins. They will still be volatile to some extent. They will still fluctuate, but they should be doing less so as a bigger part of our portfolio is branded, is premium and which gives us more possibilities, of course, to also negotiate the underlying raw material costs. So that's a very, very clear direction and it's no change really from what we've been achieving and really where we can show proof points over the last 4 or 5 years. I hand over to you, Fredrik. Yes. Lots of questions there, Faham. So thanks for that. The first maybe just to add, I think I'm not sure if you asked about the definition of how we actually define structural, but it is actually our progress in terms of mix and of course premiumization brand and everything Magnus just talked about. And the other part is cost efficiency and of course that's both a scale and savings and everything else that comes in there. So we kind of adjust in our own underlying tracking when it comes to raw material and kind of our and pricing, if I put it that way, and this is how we track it over time. So we can see that and I think we mentioned that last time, we have increased with several percentage points over the last several years and we expect to continue to do exactly that. And then of course the actual margin will fluctuate as we've said. I think when it comes to inventory, a couple of things. Because of basically the reduction of production volume coming from the lower demand, particularly in professional hygiene, we've actually seen an increase of the cover days. And if you look at the increase of cover days and this is about finished products then we actually reached the top in Q3, so Q2 and Q3 being on similar levels if you take the group as a whole. And then in Q4, we actually came down in cover days. So it's actually going in the right direction because of volume and of course also because of just general reduction. So and we expect days in stock to continue to actually more normalized. And over the longer perspective, of course, from an yes, as part of the digital project that we talked about over time, the additional capabilities we will have in demand and pipe planning and many other things, of course, we are going to be able to have a lower days in stock over time. So generally, I think we are not concerned about the level. It's going in the right direction. And over time, of course, it will gradually decrease. When you come to the tax rate, we are approximately structurally around about 25%. There has been, you can say a bit of both positive and negative if you look at the gradual movement. So the increase in profitability has actually brought a slight negative, you can say overall tax structural tax rate implication simply because we actually make money in countries with relatively high tax rate. So that's been quite negative and there's been a couple of other movements that's taken it down. So we are roughly at same level of about 25% in structural tax rates that we have been before. It maybe slightly lower than that, but approximately that level. On the structural cash outs, we are not giving that number and of course, one of the reasons is that we simply cannot actually say before we have communicated any potential action there. But from what we have communicated and the cash outlays in terms of structural cost, not a lot actually in 2021. And CapEx? Fredrik? I'm sorry? Capital expenditure. Was that a question too? I think so. Okay, so we should be roughly about SEK 7,500,000,000 for 2021 approximately in that level. Okay, let's move on. I think we're closing on the hour, but we have a number of questions. So I think if we can work through the remaining 5 persons asking questions, we'll be fine. Okay. So your next question comes from the line of Durendra Chahouhan calling from AlphaValue. Please ask your question. Yes. So my first question would be on the focus to talk to us about inventory levels across the business. You'll see anything abnormal in terms of higher or lower than what you would normally be. That would be 1. And then any comment? Could you please repeat the first question? I didn't catch it. Hello, can you hear me now? Yes, much better. Yes, okay. So could you talk us through the inventory levels across the various segments? And I mean, is there anything abnormal in terms of higher or lower than what would normally be seeing. And then secondly, in terms of Professional Hygiene, any color on when do you Expect this business to be back to growth and even better to pre crisis levels, any kind of an insight into that if you have that would be great. Thank you. Okay, so when it comes to raw material inventories, we did have some buildup during last year when there was uncertainty about supply security and especially in China. So but that's normalizing and I think that was also part of what Fredrik mentioned. And we don't have any exceptional inventory levels anywhere else that we are aware of currently in any of the categories or anywhere in the delivery chain. So we don't expect any kind of big destockings or anything like that going forward. When it comes to professional hygiene, this will depend very much with the efficiency of the vaccines. And of course, this is great news for professional hygiene. And I think my guess is as good as yours when we will start seeing a return to a more normal travel patterns and people able to returning to the offices and so on, Q1 will be very challenging because we are in the midst of severe lockdowns, even maybe the most severe lockdowns in many parts of the world, while of course we have a very challenging comparable to last year when we saw stock building in Professional Hygiene. I think that's the only answer I can give on Professional Hygiene. But overall, throughout the year, we expect a gradual improvement as life goes back to normal following the vaccine programs. Your next question comes from the line of Sanath Sadasan and he's calling from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question. Thank you. Good morning, Magnus. Good morning, Frederic. Three questions from me. Hopefully, it should be very quick. First one on ROCE development. You reported about 200 basis points of ROCE development this year, which just puts you off by about 100 basis points of your next 5 year target of 17%. So how should we think about this progression over the next few years and specifically next year? Is this the most stable level of ROCE that you see for the business? Or should we expect some moderation before it picks up again in the future years? Secondly, on the FX impact on margins. I mean, you made a point about emerging markets seeing a very good improvement in margins overall. Has FX been a headwind for you in these businesses overall? And specifically in the Q4, given how strong FX has been a headwind for you, is there a margin impact for the same, please? And then lastly, on E commerce, could you just give us a sense about how your operating cost structure has evolved or needs to evolve To kind of make this business more profitable, given you sell more premium brands in digital, of course, your gross margins profile would be higher. But how do you evolve your operating margin profile? Thanks. Starting with the third question before handing over to Fredrik. We are seeing that margins are becoming more and more similar between e commerce and brick and mortar sales as I think everyone is learning how to manage the cost of the last mile, so it's not a big topic for us internally. We just want to be in the fastest growing winning channels and we don't see a big margin impact one way or the other from that actually. Then when it comes to ROCE progression, of course, since most of the ROCE improvement will come from improvements in the margin. And since we don't give a forecast on that, I don't think we can answer that. I just want to emphasis that the above 17% ROCE target is for 2025. It's a few years out and there will be, of course, uncertainties in this time period. But we believe that we have a very sound underlying strategy getting there by 2025 at the latest. I hand over to you, Frederic. Yes. Thanks, Magnus. And hi, Sanath. Maybe just to complement that Rosy question, I think we also communicated very clearly last quarter a part of that improvement, of course, comes from underlying performance and mix and cost efficiency and other things that we're talking about now. But we also had specifically gains from the manufacturing road map that we will come back to later in this year and also the digital projects that we're doing, so of course, most of those savings are some time out. And of course, we as Magnus alluded to a bit in his presentation, there is another kind of component of value creation and that's growth. So I think we are of Core is aiming to continue to grow the company a lot and reinvest also quite a lot of what we gain into that growth ambition. So there is going to be that balance and we stick to what we said before that we will gradually over time reach that target, but we will also strive for high growth. So it's a balance. I think when it comes to the FX impact, we don't provide specifically transaction impact for the entire company. Just to give you a bit of flavor, actually we had a positive transaction impact when it comes raw material, because a lot of raw material is purchased in U. S. Dollars and the weakening of that it has actually been beneficial at least to part of our company. So if you look at cost of goods sold, it's about a bit over SEK 60,000,000 positive in this quarter. When it comes to the rest of the transactional impact And there is a bit of flows in various directions of products and we have a little bit of an uneven cost distribution. But in general, it's not really material. So this is why we don't provide a total transaction impact. It doesn't have a material impact. So I think the more important thing is to look at is the cost of goods sold. And that's roughly about SEK 60,000,000. Thanks, Frederic. Just to follow-up on that. So is there an impact from FX that you need to recover via pricing next year? Or is this a structural benefit for you, so you don't have to really recover that as such? No. I mean, if you take one I mean, there there are many you can say, so it's hard to discuss every single one. I'll just make a couple of examples. We have, as I said, an uneven cost distribution in so we have cost in countries where you have the strengthening currency, making that slightly more expensive. And then of course, we're flexible and agile. So we put resources perhaps, redistribute resources somewhat. There is another example, if you take the British pound has been versus euro actually weaker in this quarter in comparison, that's now strengthened now. That will be slightly positive as we go forward. But there are many things like this and we constantly act to make sure that we capture the best of we're to the best of our ability and to be flexible there. So not really specifically anything. It's more business as usual. Okay, let's move on. Thank you so much. A few more questions in the last 3, 4 minutes here. Thank you. So your next question comes from the line of Ian Simpson calling from Barclays. Please ask your question. Just very quickly for me, it would be great even Consumer Tissue, you could just let us know how much of that was bathroom tissue And how much was household tissue? And I think earlier you talked about how a proportion of baby care was wipes Rather than diapers. Apologies if I missed the number, but if you could just quantify that as well, that would be great. Thanks. Okay, I will hand over to Fredrik. I'm not sure I have those numbers top of mind. Wonderful. Thanks for giving that question. Actually, I'm a little bit unsure. We don't actually provide the number to my knowledge exactly how much we we have done it for professional hygiene because it has a bit of importance there. When it comes to Consumer Tissue, we have not actually provided what is bathroom tissue or not. I can check that, but that's my recollection that we actually don't provide that number. When it comes to wipes in Baby, it's a fairly small portion. So of course most of it is diapers, but there is a bit of a portion of the diapers. So maybe I exaggerated that number, Frederik, and we will have to come back on that. Yes, let's come back on that. Okay. Thanks, Greg. Just looking at the Tissue segments, there hasn't been a huge actually growth in bathroom tissue by increased home usage. It's not massive, but it is enough, of course, to have a positive impact. Same in kitchen rolls, while we actually see a lower consumption of hankies because of less flu. There hasn't been a flu season here. So some changes there in the mix, but of course, overall positive due to an increased focus on hygiene. Next question, please. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of John Annis from Goldman Sachs. Yes. Good morning, everyone. I just had a small follow-up on the promotional outlook, but in Europe. Can you detail the first half twenty twenty impact from having low levels of promotion in the European tissue business? Because my understanding is that you'll be lapping relatively low promotions given COVID-nineteen. And it would be helpful just to know how much of a boost this was in the base year to help us 2020, you are. Thanks. I don't think we can answer that question. No, we cannot. No, it's impossible to answer. Okay. Thank you. So your final question comes from the line of Anna Have Mauro Hozza please oh, he's in the home, Legrand. Please ask your question. Hi. Just a small simple one for me. If you could give us a sense of the performance in professional hygiene when restrictions were easier in the last quarter compared to And the last couple of months and restrictions tightened, so maybe a breakup of like for like growth between October, November December is possible? Thank you. So how much did we grow, I guess, in 2019 in the Q4? Well, of course, growth is down 15% compared to 2019 And margins are down 3%, 4% as we presented. I don't know if that answers the question. I guess maybe just to add there, I think was your question what the performance was in October, November December or the distribution in the quarter? Was that correct me on this. Yes, distribution within the quarter between October, November, December 2020. Yes, we haven't actually disclosed that, but it was not yes, it's really difficult to actually state that no material differences between the months in comparison to a normal patent. If anything, maybe slightly easier or better in October, a little bit tougher than of course in November December, but no material differences actually. So it was quite normal from a patent restriction, but just on a lower level because of the restrictions. Okay. Thank you so much. Okay. So Okay. Thank you so much. Okay. So to sum up, strongest margins and strongest operating profits ever in 2020, we have a positive view on the markets in 2021 based on the ongoing vaccine programs and the gradual opening up that we expect in the second half of the year. And we feel that we're in good shape. We kept on investing in our brands, in innovation, in our go to market and that we're in a good position to leverage from a return to a more normal market situation as we progress through the year. Thank you for listening.