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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Feb 18, 2022

Operator

Welcome to the Ferronordic audio cast with teleconference Q4 2021. Today, I am pleased to present CEO Lars Corneliusson and CFO Erik Danemar. For the first part of this call, all participants will be in listen only mode, and afterwards, there will be question and answer session. Speakers, please begin.

Lars Corneliusson
CEO, Ferronordic

Good morning, everybody. This is Lars Corneliusson speaking, and welcome to this presentation of the Q4 2021 report. If we move into slide number two, a summary slide we start with where we saw strong growth in sales and profit during the quarter. For the group, we had a 43% revenue growth to roughly SEK 1.7 billion. We saw demand remaining very firm across the line. We have a balance sheet that remains strong and the working capital on low levels. The board proposes SEK 11.5 per share dividend. In Russia/ CIS, we had 31% revenue growth with a greater share of aftermarket and contracting services sales.

We saw 37% operating profit growth, as the margin improved on product and revenue mix. In Germany, our truck sales in units actually increased by 70% in a market for the total Germany that declined by 4%. We saw good revenue growth of 91% in Germany, which was also supported by used truck sales and a strong aftermarket performance. 43% revenue growth, 71% operating profit growth with a 6.6% operating margin and the doubling of the earnings per share in the quarter. If we move forward to slide three, some of the highlights for the full year of 2021, our best year to date.

We had revenue increase of 34% to SEK 6.2 billion, with all business areas contributing to the growth in all countries we're operating in. The operating margin increased to 7.8% and operating profit by 4%-7%, and ended at SEK 483 million. We saw net profit grew by 53% to SEK 339 million. We also had strong cash flows from operations of SEK 457 million, and as I said, a robust balance sheet. A dividend proposal of SEK 11.5 per share. We have started to promote e-mobility in both our segments. Despite supply and operational disruptions in Russia/ CIS, we saw record year.

We further developed contracting services and also further engaged and expanded our operations in our machine and component rebuild center. During the year, we broadened our cooperation. We also added Sandvik mobile and stationary crushers to our product offering. We continued investments in network development and organization in Germany. We acquired and integrated five workshops in Germany. We saw, as I said, growth in new and used equipment and in aftermarket sales. Some financial highlights for Q4 then to repeat again. Revenue up 43%, where Russia/ CIS revenue was up 31% with equipment sales up 17%, aftermarket sales 43% and contracting services 82%.

In Germany, revenue had a good growth with 91% to SEK 445 million, with truck sales doubling, aftermarket sales up 71% and other sales up 77%. Very good growth numbers there. Also we have an operating profit that increased by 71% to SEK 112 million, where in Russia, our operating profit increased 37% to SEK 124 million. In Germany, the operating loss decreased to SEK 12 million. That gave us an operating margin of 6.6%, which is up from 5.5% in the last quarter, 2020.

We saw negative cash flows somewhat in the quarter due to working capital increase to 2% of revenue. Acquisition of businesses in Germany and also adding machines into contracting services in Russian/ CIS. That led us to a net debt of SEK 198 million or 0.3x EBITDA. We now move to slide five. Some operational highlights in Russia and CIS. In Q4, the market continued to grow strongly, and the market was actually up 49% in units. The market has continued to be supported by pent-up demand from previous years of non-investments into renewal of fleets. We have strong commodity prices, which of course supports the market.

We saw continued spending on big infrastructure projects within the national projects as they are called, and major federal construction projects. Obviously, you've heard about the potential increase in the so-called utilization fee which continues to cause uncertainty, but it has still not materialized. Our own construction equipment unit sales actually declined by 5% to 274 units, where we saw a decrease in most product groups, mainly due to supply problems. But we increased the sales of wheel loaders, backhoe loaders, and bulldozers. What we have also done is we have the product mix has changed to bigger machine and the average sales price in Swedish krona actually then increased by 20%, which is 11% in local currency.

We had a very good development in the aftermarket, continuously improving and increasing, and it was an increase of 43% in Swedish krona, compared, which is then 33% in rubles. In contracting services, we saw during the quarter very challenging weather and operating conditions, which negatively affected production in Norilsk and in northern Siberia, with extreme weather really. These are not very pleasant places to be in the winter. The iron ore site in Russian Karelia developed well, which is a project we started up recently. The aftermarket share of revenue increased with 2 percentage points to 24%, and contracting services increased 5 percentage points to 18%. If we move to slide six, some operational highlights in Germany.

Total market in Germany during the quarter declined 4%, 4.5%. Rigid declined more, 10% than tractors. We saw continued recovery in economic activity. We saw pent-up demand and need for fleet replacement, which is boosting demand. Demand is much higher than supply at the moment. But again, the total market growth was held back by supply constraints and ended up basically at the same more or less similar level as in 2020. In our area, the decrease in the quarter was even bigger, at 15% in the total market and then represented 17% of the total German market. I mean, in such conditions, we are of course very pleased to see our unit increase by 70% to 275 units.

Obviously, our market share for Volvo Trucks increased even further than in the quarter. Good growth in aftermarket sales as well, 71%, of which 13% was organic growth, and the rest then came from the acquisitions we have made during the year, which I will talk about a bit later. We also saw gross margin in Germany grew from 7.7% to 11.8%. In terms of business development, we see very good customer acceptance and demand on the rebuilt components and rebuilt machines from our center in Yekaterinburg, and we have decided to make yet another expansion of that center to increase capacity.

We have seen very good cooperation and development with Sandvik Mobile Crushers and Screens, and also stationary, which we added later on in the year. We're developing our service and sales organization and going out to customers. Obviously, this is a very good fit for us, as there are tremendous synergies between the Volvo CE offering and the Sandvik crusher offering is basically the same customers that are using both equipment, so a very good and positive start on the Sandvik cooperation. We are moving into electromobility also in Russia. We have the first electric Volvo wheel loaders certified, and we are now preparing, or actually have started, the first field tests of electric machines in Russia, and we're very excited about this of course.

In Germany, the acquisition of Bergstrasse Workshop was completed in October, and we completed an acquisition of Bingen in December. We are planning to further expand our network in Germany. The used business that we started late in 2020 had a very nice growth in the year. It's not easy to get hold of used trucks, as you can imagine, with the supply situation as it is, but I think we've done a great job there. We have continued to restructure the organization and change processes throughout the business in Germany. I think we've come a long way, done a good job in changing the organization and the processes to a more performance-oriented culture.

We announced in late December that we have made the first order for 32 electric, battery electric medium-duty trucks from Volvo and Renault for sales, rental, test drives, and demo to really start the journey of electrification in Germany. If we go to slide eight you see the status of our network expansion in Germany. Remind you that this is core of our strategy to become profitable in Germany. We need to increase our aftermarket presence. We need to take a bigger share of the aftermarket in our region in order to become profitable. We have, throughout the year, then made five acquisitions of workshops. Fulda, which was closed in January. Limburg, which was closed in April. Nordhausen, which was closed in June.

We have started and are constructing our new sales and service hub in Hannover. We expect that to be completed in Q3 this year. In the fourth quarter then we closed the transaction with Bergstrasse, and we made a closing of a transaction for the workshop in Bingen, as you can see on the map here. All in all, at the moment, we have 15 outlets in Germany, and we are continuing to expand our footprints in Germany. That was what I had to say, and I hand over to Erik Danemar, who is our CFO, to talk a little about the economic development on slide 10. Please, Erik.

Erik Danemar
CFO, Ferronordic

Thank you very much, Lars. Yes, indeed, I'll start with macroeconomic overview of our markets. So, on slide 10 then, looking at Russia, 4.6% growth in 2021. Forecast difficult going forward, but 2.8 is where the consensus forecast lies for this year, and 2.1 in 2023. Other indicators impacting us and business climate overall, inflation is picking up speed in Russia, in large parts of the world, so it reached 8.4% in December. Central Bank target is 4%, so significantly above, and that's why we have seen some decisive action on behalf of the Central Bank, 100 points in the quarter and another 100 after on the eleventh of February.

We're currently at 9.5% on key rates, and most prime being somewhere 50-70 points above that. The ruble in the quarter we report on appreciated, and we see also a year-on-year effect for the balance sheet translation, if we look again at the fourth quarter of last year to the fourth quarter of this year, even if the average rate in 2020 was stronger than it was in the average of 2021. Again, if we look on the quarter, we see the appreciation, which impacts both income statement on translation and then again balance sheet. In Kazakhstan, 4% GDP growth expected in 2021.

That's preliminary of course, but that's where they expected to land, and approximately the same expected this year. If we look at Germany, 2.7% with a stronger growth expected as we enter this year. If we move on one slide to one that we keep coming back to, slide 11 now, and we're looking at the Russian market versus our performance. We can see that if we look at the last twelve months, which now makes up 2021 as it were, we're at 69% of the level that we had in 2011, which is when Ferronordic started and when we index this graph here, the lower black line being the market there. Our revenue meanwhile has doubled since then.

Although market is 31% lower, our revenue has doubled since we started. Our operating profit is then 489% higher, about five times what it was when we started, which is very satisfactory. Again, we believe that the market is far from its peak potential at this level, not only can it go up to where it was in 2012 and 2013, we also believe that it can indeed go higher, given the infrastructure need and the replenishment of fleet in Russia, the pent-up demand that is still there, we believe.

Now, if we go into a little bit more detail on the financials, I start on slide 12 by wrapping up income statement for the full year. This is looking at the full year 2021. We then see a revenue at SEK 6.2 billion. That's about 1/3 higher than it was last year or in 2020, so 34% higher. The revenue mix between the segments roughly the same. In 2020 was 79% Russia, now it's 78%. If we look at the revenue mix, also relatively stable, 62% equipment and truck sale and 23% aftermarket. Contracting services is the one that has moved. That was 10% last year.

That moved higher as a result of the expansion that we had in contracting services or through 2021. Small gross margin increase when we look year-on-year to 17.9%. SG&A as a percent of revenue at 9.9%. We want to be below 10%, and Russia at 8.2% helps us get to that. We want to get Germany of course lower there as well to get maximum operating efficiency in Germany as well.

We had a lot of restructurings from our acquisitions in Germany, both the original ones of the assets we acquired in 2020, but also the five acquisitions that we completed in a relatively rapid pace in 2021. It's been a lot to take in, and I think we've done a very good job at integrating, but there have been costs related to those acquisitions and also priming the organization for the future. Looking at operating margin, also high, if we look year- on- year, 7.8% above our financial target of being above 7% on the operating margin.

As a result of that, we saw good growth in operating profits, 47% and a net income increase to, as Lars mentioned, a record level 52% growth to SEK 339 million. If we move to slide 13 and wrap up the fourth quarter rather than the full year. We look at the incremental, we see a revenue of about SEK 1.7 billion +43%. Here a bigger shift, Germany grew, as Lars mentioned, more strongly versus fourth quarter last year than Russia did. Here, bigger shift, Russia was 74% of the revenue mix in Q4. That was 80% in the fourth quarter last year. That's a meaningful move.

The revenue mix by activity more stable. Again, contracting services stands out, 13% here. It was 11% in the last quarter of last year, which is when we started some of these expansion projects that then delivered through 2021. Gross margin also when we look year-on-year on the quarter a bit stronger, SG&A on the quarter base is above 10%. Again, we work to push that down, and Russia is again leaner if we look at SG&A cost as a percentage of revenue. Operating margin at 6.6%, stronger than last year.

When it comes to these restructuring and acquisition costs, we took another SEK 3.5 million, as we see it more one-off and should not be recurring in Germany in the fourth quarter. That added up to still a strong operating profit growth of 71% and a doubling of net income to SEK 88 million versus where we were in the fourth quarter of 2020. If we move to the ladder graph that we usually include to illustrate the movement in operating profit, we see Russia and gross profit being the key driver, but also Germany making a positive impact here clearly.

A big contribution from Russia again, gross profit. It doesn't come free. It does come with costs and we see an increase in SG&A, and then you see the German gross profit growth and cost increase there also. Then the non-recurring as we would look at it in the fourth quarter, which brings us to SEK 101 million that we report for fourth quarter of 2021. If we move to longer term trends for an overview, I am now on slide 15.

What we see is we are again in growth territory both in Russia/ CIS, and in Germany and hence red line on the top graph showing here on a last twelve-month basis, which again coincides now with the full year 2021 growth year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. On the graph below you see the margin trends and here again versus fourth quarter last year, we see positive dynamics both in gross margin and in operating margin. If we look quarter-on-quarter, we have a decline, but again on an annual basis, we see a growth trend in the results.

If we move one slide further to OpEx or cost trends and also our important metric of return on capital, which we always monitor. Starting on the cost trends, you will see there also a declining long-term trend which we hope to continue last few quarters there. This is again, this slide is LTM, so last 12 months. Not on the last quarter itself. Then therefore moving more slowly so to say. Last full quarter, we see us hovering around the 10% mark. Again, we want to, we have the ambition to be there or below.

When it comes to return on capital employed, we were at 29% in Q4, which was an increase versus where we were last year and also in previous quarter. That is mainly a result of the strong performance in Russia/ CIS. Again, this is also drawing on last 12 months. We stress that whereas the capital employed is the average over the period measured. With that, I move to slide number 16 for a few words on the cash flows. We did have, as Lars mentioned, negative cash flow in this quarter for the first time in some quarters.

It was partly a result of an increase in working capital. We also had higher income tax and interest paid in the quarter. The main driver behind the working capital change was in Russia, where we had higher inventories and lower payables in the quarter from settling some of our outstanding payables there. In Germany, cash flows were more a result of the negative operating results, whereas working capital was more stable. Investing activities also, you can see here for the group, SEK 122 million, so a meaningful number. That being driven then by contracting services in Russia, machines to replenish the park there.

Also the acquisitive activities in Germany of course contributing to that investment number as well. If we then move to the balance sheet, we can see that those investments of course contribute to a growth in the PP&E. Again, the acquisitions in Germany, the machines mainly in Russia. To some extent also the FX of course stronger if we look year-on-year, slightly even quarter-over-quarter, but a marginal difference there in the foreign exchange effect. Year-on-year there is such an effect also the stronger ruble converting back to more Swedish krona on the balance sheet. Russia/ CIS again was setting the tone in terms of the working capital.

We were at a low -2%, and we moved to +1%. That impacted the overall balance for the business or for the group. Germany again being relatively stable, small increase there. The group then as a result, moving from 0% to 2%, that is still a low level. We have said and comment on in the report as well, that somewhere between 5% and 15% is probably where long term would be normal in this tight supply situation we're in, still, and strong demand environment.

It's not obvious that we would see a normalization in this in the short term, but over the long term, this is probably where we would expect to be in a more, again, normalized business environment. If we look at the last item on this slide, it's the net debt, which of course to some extent reflects those cash flows. We see that we land just below SEK 200 million or 0.3x EBITDA. Then I turn to slide 18 on our financial objectives and dividend policy. Here you will see that if we look on again last twelve months basis, so 2021, 1.3 versus the revenue.

We are making steps towards our goal or objective of doubling revenue by 2025. We are comfortably above our operating margin target at 7.8% and well below the net debt target that we see for the business. Lars has commented on the board's recommendation to the AGM of a dividend payment of SEK 11.5, which is aligned with the dividend pay policy that we have stipulated. With that, Lars, we turn to slide 19 and I hand back to you.

Lars Corneliusson
CEO, Ferronordic

Yes, thank you. If we then talk a little about how we see the markets going forward. We expect our markets to continue to grow in 2022. For Russia/ CIS, we see high commodity prices. We see a continued pent-up demand in the markets, and we see good and continued activity on the so-called national projects. The current very tense geopolitical situation has not yet affected our business, but of course brings significant uncertainty. We closely monitor these developments. In Germany, we expect a continued European recovery to boost demand. Adding to uncertainty, of course, relates to cost pressures and continued supply chain constraints, which we expect to continue well into 2022.

In a longer perspective, we see very strong underlying fundamentals and business opportunities in our markets. So if we go and just a quick summary again on the market, in the quarter, sorry to say, we saw 43% revenue growth, 71% operating growth with a 6.6% operating margin and the doubling of the earnings per share. By that, I hand over for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question for our speakers, please press zero and one on your telephone. The first question is from Victor Hansen, Nordea. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Victor Hansen
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Hi, Lars and Erik. Victor here. Hope you can hear me. I'm wondering first if you could quantify the negative weather impact within contracting services. It seems to have been slightly negative for sales, but then I'm also wondering if you saw a larger effect on efficiency, meaning the margin.

Erik Danemar
CFO, Ferronordic

Maybe I start there, Lars, and you can nuance it. I think, Victor, I mean, it's weather, so it's stochastic by itself. Measuring the impact, I think is difficult, and it makes it also very difficult to make any, how do I say this, projections about how it can impact our contracting activity. I would maybe put it like this, that if you look at the quarter-over-quarter growth of results in contracting services, then we saw a decline of 10% in revenue.

The complications, the extreme weather that we saw which caused more complicated operating conditions started somewhere in December. I think it's fair to say that when we have a harder time operating the machines, then yes, it has an impact on the profitability as well. If we cannot keep the production levels as high, meaning delivering as much cubic meters, then there is again an impact. But I wouldn't quantify that for you at this point. That's what I would say.

Victor Hansen
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Yeah, that's helpful. In Russia/ CIS, your used unit sales declined almost 20% year-on-year. First, I'm wondering if this is all due to supply problems, and then also if you could perhaps expand on the supply issues you are facing more generally and how you are dealing with them. Thanks.

Lars Corneliusson
CEO, Ferronordic

Yeah. Well, the answer is yes. The reason why we don't keep pace with the market is supply constraints. But also the fact that we have deliberately chosen to change the product mix to bigger machines and creating higher average ticket sales to somewhat you know take the effect away from units because obviously we see that we're increasing revenue although we are losing market shares in units. The supply constraints are there and they will continue into well into 2022. Unfortunately we don't see any positive development there yet.

We can, as I said, how we can counteract that is obviously to make sure that we focus on bigger machines in the scarce resources for scarce supply that we have so that we get rubles out and also invest for the future in a bigger aftermarket for bigger machines. That's what we can say. I think we've done it in a good way by increasing revenue, although we haven't been able to keep up with the pace of the units in the market.

Victor Hansen
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Understood. That's all from me. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Kenneth Toll Johansson, Carnegie. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Kenneth Toll Johansson
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Yeah, thank you. Can you hear me?

Lars Corneliusson
CEO, Ferronordic

Yes.

Kenneth Toll Johansson
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Hello?

Lars Corneliusson
CEO, Ferronordic

We can.

Kenneth Toll Johansson
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Yeah. Okay, great. Sorry, had some muting problems. Okay. I'm sorry, I have to ask these uncomfortable questions maybe around the political tensions. I'm thinking about if there are severe sanctions introduced on Russia by the E.U. and the U.S., how prepared are you to handle such a situation? It's a broad question, but let me narrow it down. How much of your sales goes to organizations that are owned or influenced by oligarchs, which are likely to be very badly hit by sanctions? And the other thing, if Russian banks get a lot of sanctions, so it might be harder for them to transfer money and execute payments with banks abroad and so on, could you still run your business or?

Lars Corneliusson
CEO, Ferronordic

Yeah, Kenneth, we don't wanna speculate too much into what will happen, obviously. As we say, so far, we have not had any effect on our business. We have a very diversified customer portfolio, and we have no customers that stands for more than 4% of our sales. We are working in many different sectors, as you know, and that is what I can say on that. When it comes to banks, we're also working with a number of financial institutions, both inside but also outside Russia, and that should help us to mitigate the risks. Clearly, there are uncertainties, and we are obviously working to...

We monitor the situation, and we make what we say, you know, appropriate preparations to manage what possible eventualities can come.

Kenneth Toll Johansson
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

That's as good an answer as one would expect, I guess. On Germany, you write also that the road to profitability has been a little bit delayed. It takes some longer time. I mean, there has been corona, and now there are shortages of components hitting truck and spare parts sales maybe and so on.

During the time now that you have owned the German operations and you getting closer to the operations and you've done a couple of acquisitions and so on, is there anything that you have found out that sort of disturbs the longer term picture that you should be able to do good margins in or decent margins, at least in this business longer term?

Lars Corneliusson
CEO, Ferronordic

No, Kenneth. I think, frankly speaking the opposite. I think we have worked hard these two years, and as you say, it's been tough because there has been corona restrictions. Our teams rather haven't been able to travel to Germany and to work, and there's been restriction inside Germany, et cetera. Of course, the restructuring and the reshaping process has taken a bit longer and has been harder than we expected. At the same time, there is nothing that we see that changes our mind that we can make this sustainably profitable going forward. We are on that path.

I mean, the key to profitability in our region in Germany is to increase and expand the aftermarket sales in the region. We have made these five acquisitions, and as you can see, they have added quite considerable amount to our aftermarket sales and we will continue to do that. It's good also to see that now we're getting traction on the market share for trucks, which obviously is a you know, basis of fundamentals for being profitable. You need to have a population to service. We don't see any reason to question, so to speak, our ability to be sustainably profitable in Germany. Probably the opposite.

Kenneth Toll Johansson
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. I see.

Lars Corneliusson
CEO, Ferronordic

Mm-hmm.

Kenneth Toll Johansson
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Okay, great. There are some new results that the coronavirus is sort of increasing in the Russian part or the eastern part of Europe and so on. Are you facing more disturbances in your operations now than previously?

Lars Corneliusson
CEO, Ferronordic

In terms of, in January, there was a peak of, as everywhere, I think, in Russia with Omicron. Of course, a lot of people were on sick leave. I think we've been living through this now. We know how to handle it, and we don't see any big disturbances from COVID, although a lot of people have been at least maybe not ill, but on sick leave at the same time.

Kenneth Toll Johansson
Equity Research Analyst, Carnegie

Mm-hmm. Okay, great. Thanks. That's all for me.

Lars Corneliusson
CEO, Ferronordic

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Speakers, please go ahead.

Lars Corneliusson
CEO, Ferronordic

Okay. If there are no further questions, then I thank you all for listening in to this quarterly presentation, and hope to talk to you again in next quarter. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect.

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